For me, pre-season began in the second week of finals in 2014. I started jotting down thoughts and began researching potential premiums and LTI returnees for analysis and watch-listing. 6 months in, and my team has changed too many times to count – but what hasn’t changed much is the structure.
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SoapOnARope 2015
My structure: Guns and Rookies.
I always go GnR – Always. This season, it has become obvious that we can’t go pure guns and rooks, but I’ve made it close enough. Goodes and Newnes are the only non-GnR players I’m running at this stage.
My strategy:
First thing you’ll notice, NO ABLETT! I have chastised myself over and over for not running Ablett, but with recent revelations that he’s not ready and pulling out of NAB – I just can’t justify his price-tag. The last time Ablett had no pre-season – he dropped 3 sub 100 scores in his first 5 weeks, also; Ablett had NEVER had a serious injury before this. I feel he will doubt his shoulder for a long time, hindering his output. Judd, I plan to move on as soon as his price peaks, and hoping Ablett drops a sub 80 or 2 in the first 5 weeks – and boom, Judd could be my ticket to an under-priced Ablett. Key word – COULD.
I’m running a pretty risky 7 Premium midfield. You know my plans for Judd, and I’m hoping at least 5 of the remaining 6 premium players remain keepers. The plethora of options we have up forward make me feel more confident that this strategy will hold me in good stead.
I’m running guns in the ruck. Nic Nat’s lack of pre-season and ordinary showing vs Fremantle have prompted my non-picking of him and I feel Maric has plenty to offer in his stead. Goldy is a gun and picks himself.
I’m running an ultra-slim forward, obviously meaning I’ll need to shore this up as soon as I can and I’d love 50 Shades (Gray) up forward, but it’s either him and Nic Nat or Dusty and Maric, and I feel the latter will offer me better output. 50 shades will hopefully drop 50-80k and I can hopefully pick him up around rounds 7-9. If not – he’ll be a round 13 inclusion.
My backline has had the most change about it all pre-season. I was going to go ultra-light back, but the lack of rookies changed that for me. Heath Shaw will be in the top 3 defenders come season end (I feel). Michael Johnson should be thereabouts also, providing his back can hold up. My only real worry is Goodes, I hope he gets elevated. He was injected when Libba had his unfortunate injury – opening the spot for Goodes.
Selections of community debate:
Ivan Maric (RUCK 535K)
Just look at the Tigers without him. They were terrible in the first half of last year. Inject Maric & give him a few games to clear the rust, and you have a monster. His final 8 he games averaged 110, they won them all and made finals. I feel he is in for a big year and if he stays on the park – I feel he could be a top 3 ruck if fit. Just take look at Chicko’s review here.
Jordan Lewis (MID $588K)
Priced to average 109 – I think he can up it to 115-120. Hawks are a unit; there are too many players to focus on so I don’t think he’ll get tagged often. I don’t think many will run him – they’ll likely go Sloane/Danger/Beams etc. Can go large and should play 20-22 games. Have a read of my review of Lewis here.
Michael Johnson (DEF $468K)
Johnson had back surgery in the off season and I almost ran a line through him. In his NAB game he showed no signs of duress and posed a nice 100+ point game to show me he’s right to go. Most will go a Gibson or a Murphy in his place, but I feel he has a much better chance to not have those 50 point stinkers. He is a great interceptor and re-bounds the ball often. He’s made the cut for consistency and potential Point of difference. Have a read of my review of Johnson here.
Dustin Martin (MID/FWD $535k).
I put dusty up for debate because many write him off as having no tank or the change in crunch-time scaling will hurt him. I agree, I think the scaling will affect his output in those instances, but I feel his added load through the guts will increase his output and void the losses we may see from that change. The next step in his fantasy elite-hood is nigh. Have a read of Big Ben’s review here.
7 premium mid-field:
7 starting premiums in the guts – is it suicide? Will it hamper my money-making ability? I say no. I feel the best 4 rooks in the guts come round 1 will be in there and I hope to make the coin from them and the forward-line rookies. Could bite me, but you need to take risks to win it.
What’s nagging at me:
Defensive structure
I’d love to keep Goodes in at D4, but may have to slim down in the guts a bit and up him to an Ibbotson or similar if he doesn’t make round 1. Obviously rookies will ultimately determine whether I go deeper down here – but we are all having the same problems aren’t we?
Not having Gary Ablett
We all know he is the Supercoach Messiah, but after all – he is human. I think this human side of him will drop his output while he regains confidence in that shoulder. He has been in and out so many times this pre-season; I hope I don’t regret it.
318 Comments
Mac · 25/03/2015 at 19:00
Absolute BEAST midfield. Love the Lewis selection. Forward Line looks weak, but many rookies will play so I can see where your coming from. Best of Luck!
Dex_ · 25/03/2015 at 19:42
Cheers Mac.
Forward line will struggle to generate points, but should be made up by the deep midfield.
Luck be with you as well mate!
@milesdeutscher · 25/03/2015 at 20:56
Since everyone seems to be sharing, i'd love your thoughts on my team. Changing constantly but pretty sure I'm getting close:
Shaw, Taylor, Newnes, Lumumba, Oxley, Saad (Hamling, Goddard)
Pendlebury, Fyfe, Selwood, Beams, Dangerfield, Newton, Cripps, Ellis-Yolmen (Heeney, Vandenberg, Miller)
Goldstein, Maric (O'Brien)
Gray, Bartel, Martin, Salem, Clark, Hogan (Daniel, Lambert).
Soapy · 25/03/2015 at 19:01
McKenzie, Daniel and Dawson are unlikely R1 starters – are these strategic doughnuts or will you be replacing them with selected rookies if they aren't selected?
Dex_ · 25/03/2015 at 19:42
Rookies subject to round 1 Soapy.
Read the strategic nugget.
Patch · 25/03/2015 at 19:02
I thought they were hills on the horizon there Dex, but they are actually your plums.
Love it. Shark team, as Mick would say. Love the selection of Lewis. Well done, sir.
Dex_ · 25/03/2015 at 19:43
Cheers Patch!
Been big on Lewis for a while. Hope he delivers!
Brillsy21 · 25/03/2015 at 19:02
Great stuff dex
What do you guys think of Shannon Hurn??
What are some other alternatives if you don't like him?
r2d2 · 25/03/2015 at 19:11
Gibson , kelly (Geel) , Taylor
Dex_ · 25/03/2015 at 19:44
Cheers Brillsy!
Nearly slipped Hurn in there, but feel MJ has a bigger ceiling now the crunch time has been reduced.
Should go alright now he's captain.
Corey · 25/03/2015 at 19:05
Do you reckon Ablett will be fit for r1
shezza · 25/03/2015 at 19:06
He is fit, he just hasn’t had any contact work which is a worry
Kev · 25/03/2015 at 21:05
No bloke can touch the king anyway!
Dex_ · 25/03/2015 at 19:45
Difficult to say Corey.
Might play, but his usual "godlike" output may be reduced – hence his non-starting in my side.
Motsy · 26/03/2015 at 00:20
Calm down mate, that attitude won't get you far.
I cay say with 100% certainty that Ablett will not average as highly as he did last year this season.
His team has improved the load will be shared, with the exception of Crowley/Freo many more teams have a stronger emphasis on tagging as a role role this year and have stronger taggers than previous years, rather than just putting a good defender on the player.
People talking about "burning two trades to get Ablett in" don't understand that you're not burning anything, you're just re-distributing your spend elsewhere and will make up the one/two trades in other areas.
I would say that at best: Gaz is a gamble this year, he's not the same player as the last two years. It might pay off, it might not. One sub vest in rounds 3-5 is an instant 80k+ loss over the following weeks, assuming he plays at his current average.
lewis kemp · 25/03/2015 at 21:41
hey mate i'm best mates with the head physio at the suns and he has told me that ablett will line up round 1 and will be monitored and subbed some time during the game!!!!!!!
BCHawks · 25/03/2015 at 19:05
Great team Dex! Love the POD's And with the amount of forward rookies there are I like your structure. Good luck for the season!
Dex_ · 25/03/2015 at 19:46
Cheers BC!
Same to you mate.
r2d2 · 25/03/2015 at 19:05
Solid team , but maybe you one short in def? Good cash generation likely 🙂 and you going judd as well , just like lekdog, obv just as a stepping stone for gaz , i find that interesting in itself , good Luck mate
Dex_ · 25/03/2015 at 19:47
Cheers R2D2 (that's my message tone)
Backline grates at me sometimes, but i've always been turned off by midpricers, that's why i've tried to cheat with Goodes>
May pay off, may not..
r2d2 · 25/03/2015 at 21:10
Could well do mate
shezza · 25/03/2015 at 19:06
Ive loaded up in the midfield two years ago and started off to flyer. Obviously your defence is your weakness but we all have one line that could be a bit stronger. This team will start off strong.
Dex_ · 25/03/2015 at 19:48
That't the plan Shezza!
I just hope to keep the momentum as the season progresses.
shezza · 26/03/2015 at 16:23
How confident are you of Judd? Is he a better option than Scott selwood or a Jack Steven?
sam siddall · 25/03/2015 at 19:06
Interesting read mate everyone is going judd to get to abblett
Dex_ · 25/03/2015 at 19:49
Thanks Sam.
I just feel he is underpriced – had a great pre-season, and is primed for a fast start,
LEKD0G · 25/03/2015 at 22:03
And he's someone that we can trade up no worries, won't be averaging 110 and too good to keep but won't average low enough that we need to drop him
SCOTLAND THE BRAVE · 25/03/2015 at 22:17
Not sure why you wouldn’t go langford to ablett freeing up the cash to go goodes to ibbo?
Brillsy21 · 25/03/2015 at 19:06
Jordan Lewis or Luke Parker??
Patch · 25/03/2015 at 19:09
The correct answer could win you 50k. I'm with Dex, I prefer Lewis, but it's line ball.
Dex_ · 25/03/2015 at 19:50
Lewis, just.
But – if bye rounds arent an issue – you cant go wrong with Parker either.
LEKD0G · 25/03/2015 at 22:04
Parker :p
Chicko · 25/03/2015 at 22:12
Both!
medadsson · 26/03/2015 at 14:45
Me too, gone both.
KJU FC · 25/03/2015 at 19:08
Loving Goodes at D4!
Best of luck DEX!
Dex_ · 25/03/2015 at 19:50
Cheers KJU!
r2d2 · 25/03/2015 at 19:09
I personally am starting with gaz , not prepared to sideways trade or waste 2, and you think lonie and lamb will get reg games ?
Dex_ · 25/03/2015 at 19:52
Not sure R2.
best guess really.
As for sideways, i finished 52 last year, only 9 of my starters survived the season. I feel planned trading will get you to where you want and not knee-jerk trades.
Mozz · 25/03/2015 at 19:14
I have Wells in my team atm and thinking that he could be my sideways trade up to ablett, is this a good option or should i switch him to Judd instead?
Dex_ · 25/03/2015 at 19:53
If you feel Wells will start the season strong enough (or better than Judd) to generate cash – yes, start him.
Crowls · 26/03/2015 at 07:11
Absolutely Wells is a good option and can upgrade to Ablett or fyfe or rockliff from him.
Mac · 25/03/2015 at 19:15
Look I know this is Dex's team but since many people are commenting on it, I was wondering if you could spare the time to give your thoughts on my team please
Thoughts on my team? I'm not sure wether I need a player that I can trade up to Ablett in my midfield, like Judd, as Lekdog and Dex have done.
Shaw, Gibson, Newnes, Lumumba, Goodes, Edwards, Saad, Goddard
Pendlebury, Selwood, Beams, Parker, Griffin, Newton, Cripps, Vandenberg, Ellis-Yolmen, Miller, Krakouer
Mumford, Goldstein, Read
Gray, Martin, Swan, Salem, Clark, Lambert, Hogan, Steele.
As I said, not sure wether I need a need a midfield player like Judd to trade up to Gaz when he gets fully fit and firing. Also, not too sure on Lumumba. I can generate money by trading Goodes down to someone like Hamling if I need to.
Thoughts?
r2d2 · 25/03/2015 at 19:23
Neale could get you too gaz also if you wanted to go down that path …
Patch · 25/03/2015 at 19:26
Cripps and Newton might help you get to Gaz. If you play it well enough and the cards fall your way, they could get you there along with one of the other rooks.
Dex_ · 25/03/2015 at 19:54
Solid Mac.
I'm not big on "The Gift" but there is validity in his selection.
VDB and Krak haven't been upgraded yet – so thy're ones to watch.
Solid Fwd line too!
Booma · 25/03/2015 at 21:06
Think your strategy depends on whether you just want to get Gaz in your team or you want to compete for an overall place. Your team in good, but its & safe team. Like Lekdog & Dex have said, if you want to win the overall you’ve got to take some risk & go balls out. Good luck to you though.
@TylerCArmstrong · 25/03/2015 at 19:20
Nice team dex. Not big on Nic Nat?
Dex_ · 25/03/2015 at 19:55
Nah mate, Something is off with DogDog.
Playing it safer in the rucks, and risking the FWD line is more for me.
Andy · 25/03/2015 at 19:22
Very optimistic with those fwd rookies. Not sure they’ll play 3+ games in a hurry. Wait till March 31st. Everything will change again after that
Dex_ · 25/03/2015 at 19:56
Could go south Andy, but rooks are subject to change come round one.
@RyanRhino14 · 25/03/2015 at 19:22
how much cap space do you have left
Spifflicator · 25/03/2015 at 19:23
Nice team Dex! I like it, even the gamble on Judd. good luck!
Dex_ · 25/03/2015 at 19:57
Cheers Spiff!
Can't win with a cookie-cutter team!
Throttlefinger · 25/03/2015 at 19:30
Definite Shark team. You know its strengths and weaknesses so that’s key when making final adjustments after selection and during the season. Mans think you gave yourself a lot of flexibility in all your lines. Well done Dex.
Envious of this team.
Dex_ · 25/03/2015 at 19:58
Cheers Throt!
Many an hour went into the crafting of this beast!
Chicko · 25/03/2015 at 19:44
Strong Dex, very bloody strong! Would be frightening to face that team if all those midfielders are on song! Well thought out mix. Well done mate!
Dex_ · 25/03/2015 at 20:19
Cheers Chicko!
Let's hope it plays as strong as it looks
sam siddall · 25/03/2015 at 19:50
Question to any1 say u go judd and he averages 105 til rd 6 and say abblett only avgs 110 til then what are both there prices going to be as to me u will still need 2 trades to get gaz
General Soreness · 25/03/2015 at 20:11
If you have $50k could be a straight swap.
Dex_ · 25/03/2015 at 21:16
Agree General
Derek · 25/03/2015 at 22:06
It isn’t a simple case of what they average in first 5 weeks. As you know the prices don’t change until after 3 weeks, and then it is calculated on a 3 week rolling average, so week 1 score will only affect price for 1 week and then it is gone etc. so it depends on if Gaz starts slow say an 80 and ramps it up by week 5 to 130+, his average may be 110 but the way he scores will change his price significantly, meaning it might not drop as much as you think.
Same goes for Judd who might start strong and have a few average games week 3 or 4, this will stay in his rolling average longer than have poor scores in week 1 & 2
sam siddall · 25/03/2015 at 20:17
Cool cheers ive decided to bring in swallow and have him finish M8 instead of griffen finishing M8 and hope with gws easy draw griff goes 120+ and do straight swap 4 gaz
General Soreness · 25/03/2015 at 20:47
Wow M8
Dex_ · 25/03/2015 at 20:21
I see your point Sam.
I may need two trades for gaz.
But 6 games into a rook and he might be a little prem, but i can definitely lop the head off if need be.
sam siddall · 25/03/2015 at 20:27
Yeah I think if gaz drops below 650k it will only be btw round 5 to 7 and I will if I have 2 but dont really want to have to use 2 trades to get him in and may have to cull a cash cow before he is fully fatted up
Derek · 25/03/2015 at 22:09
Gaz will only drop to $650 if there is something significantly wrong with him. If that the case you will stay away.
Chef's Arsse fc · 25/03/2015 at 19:56
Gday community. Just after an opinion. Rich, wells, adams, wallis and a rookie OR newton and cripps? Cheers
Dex_ · 25/03/2015 at 20:20
Newton and Cripps for mine Chefs.
Chef's Arsse fc · 25/03/2015 at 22:04
Thanks. I’ve thought long and hard and re-jigged my defence so I can have wallis and cripps. Hope it pays off!
sam siddall · 25/03/2015 at 20:24
Last 2
Ben · 25/03/2015 at 19:56
Thoughts on Griffen, will he outscore Swallow and if so what average?
Ben · 25/03/2015 at 20:01
Also thoughts on Bellchambers? or should I go with two premos?
KJU FC · 25/03/2015 at 20:04
Griffen has a massive ceiling and looks to be back to his best this year. I'd prefer Griffen over Swallow but its your choice mate.
Dex_ · 25/03/2015 at 20:22
Easily, but 5-10 points a week In my opinion.
Griff 110-115
Swallow 100-105
(My thoughts)
Nash · 25/03/2015 at 19:59
Very nice dex. Can you give me some feed back mate on my team. Cheers
Simpson, shaw, Gibson, Hibberd, Newns, Saad ( Goodard, Mcintosh)
Gaz (might change) Pendelbury, fyfe, Danger, Newton, Cripps, Elliss-youlmen, Vandenberg ( heeney, miller, krakour)
Goldy, maric (read)
Gray, Martin, Swan, Salem, Clark, Hogan, ( lambet, Steel)
I have gone rookies in the midfield because I think this is where the money is to be made. Plus I would rather midfield rookies scoring the defensive rookies as there score will be larger.
Anyone with any feed back would be awesome. Thanks
Dex_ · 25/03/2015 at 20:26
Nice team Nash!
Very strong Defense line – Not a fan of Simpson personally. I feel he will throw a spud score in there somewhere and we will be able to pick him up for 420-450k
Solid Mids, see your point re-rooks. although need to watch for VDB and Kraks.
Perfect ruck set-up.
Only one I'm not sure on is Steele in forward line.
Nice team mate,
jmy7 · 25/03/2015 at 20:01
why is even so keen on lewis or parker, have people forgottin about dangerfield and boak!?
Jayden · 25/03/2015 at 20:05
BOak will get tagged a lot and dangerfield generally starts the season slow and with contract rumours could go down for a rough year
Dex_ · 25/03/2015 at 20:33
Boak has always been a perennial 100pt scorer (highest av 106.6.).
Don't think he'll better it this year.
As for Danger, new coach and contract have put me off him.
Shane · 26/03/2015 at 01:06
and Lewis with 1 season out of 10 averaging over 100 screams LOCK to you…
qsz · 25/03/2015 at 20:02
Why all the hype around Judd when Sam Mitchell is the exact same price.
Mitchells body is more consistent and in my opinion he's better value coming off his injury effected year making him currently undervalued for his proven scoring abilities
Reckon he could be a nice POD and still be a quick stepping stone to GAZ if need be
pauly walnuts · 25/03/2015 at 20:33
The problem is that if the Hawks are going well into the last quarter they tend to bench the likes Mitchell,Hodge ect
Dex_ · 25/03/2015 at 20:34
Valid point qsz.
take out Judd's 6 where he twanged his hammy and he averaged 98.
Fit this year and tag will go to Gibbs or Smurf. Better option for mine.
Jayden · 25/03/2015 at 20:04
With Lonie and Daniel if they get selected do you see them getting vested a bit
Dex_ · 25/03/2015 at 20:35
Definite vest candidates.
Could be a JKH from last year,
Jayden · 26/03/2015 at 01:28
Oh please do not remind me of that roller coaster Dex
Rock-MAN · 25/03/2015 at 20:10
Dagliesh, WhiteX, Geary?
Dex_ · 25/03/2015 at 20:36
None of them for mine.
Esp. Geary, NAB trooper – only to burn in season proper.
Dee · 25/03/2015 at 21:29
Dalgleish will get games early you recon Dex?
Dex_ · 25/03/2015 at 21:42
Possibly – Not keen on Ess players before the ASADA stuff is handed down.
If players suspened – Lock in Dalgleish and Edwards.
That's the only reason he's in my side.
kyle k · 25/03/2015 at 20:12
hi guys, torn here do I go with
boak/danger or
lewis/griffen?
Dex_ · 25/03/2015 at 20:37
Lewis/Griffen
Boak can't deal with a tag, Danger contact issues put me off him.
JoeWoolcock · 25/03/2015 at 23:01
Hey Dex, do you reckon Gray will get the tag over Boak given his time in the midfield now? Boak is in my team and I'm hoping that's the case!
General Soreness · 25/03/2015 at 20:14
Dex a masterful team with a strong SWOT analysis done. Balanced mix of PODs, Johnson most intriguing. Nice work.
Dex_ · 25/03/2015 at 20:37
Cheers General!
Research is paramount!
Harry · 25/03/2015 at 20:19
I think we all get a bit psyched with pre season. I for one am sticking with Natanui. It's his first pre season in 4 years; he's a premo at hit outs to advantage; he might be slow first round but think he'll be right by round 2 which is perfect. Not too many players dominated their first hit out.
Jonathan · 25/03/2015 at 20:26
EXCEPT FOR ABLETT
Dex_ · 25/03/2015 at 20:38
i see your point Harry.
I feel he is too big a risk – considering my weaker FWD line and the defense pickle we are all in.
Don't want to stress over rucks as well.
Jonathan · 25/03/2015 at 20:26
What do you think?
Judd to generate cash for Ablett later on? or
Lachie Neale to generate cash for Ablett?
Will Neale go up in price as much as Judd?
Also great write up DEX!!!
Dex_ · 25/03/2015 at 20:40
Cheers Jonathan
Both Neale and Judd ahve their pro's and cons.
Can't go wrong with either.
As for who will average more – Who knows. I think Judd, but Neale has exploded this preseason. Best guess really.
Derek · 25/03/2015 at 22:17
What if you started with Gaz, if he isn’t going well in first two weeks (saints & Melbourne) get rid of him before the cats game and before he has a price drop. Then you will know who is flying, Judd or Neale etc and jump on them as they are on bubble and before their price rise. Then as Gaz price drops and Judd/Neale rises you make twice the cash. When you ready, trade back to Gaz at a bargain price just as Judd/Neale have peaked. That’s an insurance trade!
Rock-MAN · 25/03/2015 at 22:45
Wasting one trade to get GAJ in if you start with him.
Swans2012 · 25/03/2015 at 20:35
I like it dex! Loving the team reveals, gives a good comparison point. love the fact we all play the same game with the same info but come to completely different conclusions. I reckon the 4 rookie forward line could bleed points as forward rookies traditionally score poorly (I’m only trusting Salem and Clark on field), but could be countered by your strong ruck/mid lines. Personally I’d rather a Ellis yolmen playing on field than a hogan. I also reckon there might be more $ but maybe less points to be made out of wells vs Judd so a coin toss there. Good luck and look forward to seeing your season unfold.
Swans2012 · 25/03/2015 at 20:37
Said hogan meant Lonie or lamb
Swans2012 · 25/03/2015 at 20:39
And by unfold I meant see how it goes not unfolds as in unravels and falls apart. This is my last self reply. Welcome.
Dex_ · 25/03/2015 at 20:43
Cheers Swans.
That's where i'm hoping i can win. Strong mids will hopefully counter/make up for the lask in rook scores i'm bound to get.
As for field placement, best guess a week out from round 1, may have different rooks by then.
Swans2012 · 25/03/2015 at 20:53
But FOUR you can trust on field in the forwards, if it’s he with the biggest figs wins, then you are in with a ripping shot. I like your style. All or nothing, personally I’d play yolmen in the mids and trade one of your premo mids for gray up forward. Seems like you’d get an extra 20-30 pnts out of it. (Yolmen +20 over Lonie, gray = or close to Lewis)
Dex_ · 25/03/2015 at 21:01
I see your point Swans.
Rooks are yet to be finalised – so we'll know more this time next week
Ben · 25/03/2015 at 20:35
Fyfe & Gray or Ablett & Bartel/Zorko
Dex_ · 25/03/2015 at 20:43
Fyfe and Gray.
Ableet Qn mark makes me think we can get him cheaper.
Ben · 25/03/2015 at 21:00
Thanks Dex.
It will take some balls to go with Fyfe & Gray, especially if the little master saddles up R1
Dom · 25/03/2015 at 20:36
Would love to know your thoughts on Cotchin??
Dex_ · 25/03/2015 at 20:44
Stay away from Cotch. Never again for mine,
Can't handle a tag and is as soft as butter.
Both Martin and Lids are better options.
eatemalive · 25/03/2015 at 20:52
Dom, in my team as a huge POD, i reckon this will be a huge break out year for Cotch
craig · 25/03/2015 at 20:37
with no ruc/fwd in forward line/no gaz, should go brooksby in r3. gives you captain loophole every week. geelong has fri night games, goldcoast don't
Dex_ · 25/03/2015 at 20:45
Thanks forthe info Craig – I'll look that one up.
craig · 25/03/2015 at 20:51
i only checked until bye rounds…
Jayden · 26/03/2015 at 01:36
Geelong mostly play on Saturday night Sunday night pretty sure we only have 1 or 2 Friday night games this year
dukes · 25/03/2015 at 20:39
Best stepping stone for ablett out of judd, Mitchell, Neale, Stevens? Atm I’m leaning towards neale as I am asucker for a young players potiential. Thoughts??
Swans2012 · 25/03/2015 at 20:47
Been tossing up the same names, but I’ve decided on wells, only has to follow his precious averages to give 90’s and a quick 140k or so. Although with Neale and Steven there is a chance of them making the keeper 110 average whereas you will definately have to trade wells. Comes down to structure. I personally reckon Neale, most points per minute at freo last year. Just needs to keep that up and increase tog to go 105+
pauly walnuts · 25/03/2015 at 20:49
judd
throttlefinger · 25/03/2015 at 22:37
I like Judd. Proven guy, won't get tagged but can handle it if it happens. Looked strong in NAB. That said, Neale is also an excellent choice.
Buddy · 25/03/2015 at 20:45
Need a premium defensive option over Simpson. Not a fan of malceski and already have shaw.
Any ideas
Derek · 25/03/2015 at 21:01
Why don’t you want Simpson?
JoeWoolcock · 25/03/2015 at 22:56
I might be running with Kelly this year given increased midfield time, tackling and reliability, but has nowhere near the ceiling of the Hurn, Johnson ilk. I'd advise one of those three.
Jayden · 26/03/2015 at 01:39
Gibson
Scott · 25/03/2015 at 20:59
Hey Dex love your team. Do you think Beams is a better option than JPK? Did you consider another rookie in the midfield and perhaps Bont or Michell in your forward line I like Salem, but I think its a big ask at D3. Not tempted into Wells or Rich? Good luck.
Dex_ · 25/03/2015 at 21:31
Cheers Scott.
No mid pricers in guts. Trap waiting to happen.
As for Beams vs JPK – both are guns. I feel Parker may go past JPK this year, and Beams will benefit having Rocky/Zorko and the like around him.
Don't feel like Bont can offer enough consistency for his price tag.
Mitchell is too risky, feel he is over-hyped, considering he hasn't played more than 10 games in a year.
Derek · 25/03/2015 at 20:59
A lot of people talking about not going with Gaz and hoping to get him later once his price drops.
This sounds a good idea until you realise that unless he has two stinker games to start the year, we are talking about saints & Melbourne, he will score 120 by just turning up. But say he does have a slow start and has a couple of sub 80 scores before returning to his regular 130+. Those two poor scores won’t affect his price until after round 3 and when they do they will be out of his 3 week rolling average by week 4…. So when do you expect to get him cheap?
I think there is less risk by picking him, if he does have a slow start to season and isn’t looking “right” but still plays, we have the first two weeks think about him and trade him out at NO loss of value. All we have is a few below average scores but no real harm to the bank balance, and IF we do think he isn’t going well and want trade him, we can pick up someone on the bubble to replace him
Kev · 25/03/2015 at 21:24
Great point, Derek. To further that Gaz is a bloody proud bloke and will not take the field and half ass it while his team mates do all work. Using Judd as a stepping stone is interesting, I feel it will leave a few coaches in two minds if Juddy comes out and goes bang, why trade him out? Not to mention there is always other problems that need to be dealt with (injuries, suspensions, spud blokes) before trading out a 100+ average player.
I like the structure of your team, Dex. Though there's a very real chance the SC Gods could strike and leave in a world of pain with sub affected scores. Wouldn't mind seeing a fwd/mid rookie swing in your mids (steele?) to go with lambert a bit of an insurance policy
Dee · 25/03/2015 at 21:31
Agreed! In my side…
Dee · 25/03/2015 at 21:51
Agreed!
throttlefinger · 25/03/2015 at 22:05
Put simply, the highest costing player should deliver. And he won't come near 130 ave for his first 5 games. Plus you'll be missing out on scores that could put you in line for the $50K.
Think there is no bad idea whether you have him in or not. Just a preference.
The Ranger · 25/03/2015 at 22:25
Spot on TF.
If you think he will drop in value and you can trade him in at a point where that is economically viable or even a bonus then go for it.
If you don't have a plan for that or don't believe he will drop value much or at all then start with him.
Simple matter of preference!
throttlefinger · 25/03/2015 at 22:31
Great point, Ranger. Whether you have him or not, you have to have a plan. Truly believe it's 50/50 whether he will deliver or not in the first 5 rounds.
Derek · 25/03/2015 at 22:29
To win 50k you need to have Ablett and for him to smash it from round 1. If he does, I can guarantee you, the SuperCoach winner for 2015 will have started with Garry Ablett Jnr in their team.
If he doesn’t smash it, there is still time to trade him out to a premium on the bubble before week 3, make cash, trade back Gaz once price drops, make heap of cash and only have lost 40-60 points. Won’t be far off pace.
throttlefinger · 25/03/2015 at 22:34
That's a big "if", Derek. I simply don't think he will.
And because I don't think he will, no reason to put him in. If he wasn't the most expensive player, your approach would make sense. But for me, I can use the money to make other lines stronger while making it fairly seamless to get him once he returns to form.
Again, matter of preference.
The Ranger · 25/03/2015 at 22:47
You're burning a trade Derek.
You should never be trading out a top eight player surely?
Derek · 25/03/2015 at 23:16
Good discussion. I love it
throttlefinger · 25/03/2015 at 23:22
These discussions are the best, aren't they Derek?!? And really helps keep your strategy and choices in check.
With Gaz and the weakarse back lines, think this could be a really interesting year.
Think the real work is after R1. Last year my in-game adjustments were really poor. Mostly because I didn't soundboard them off people like yourself for feedback. Needless to say, lesson learned.
Best of luck to you this season, my man.
The Ranger · 25/03/2015 at 23:53
Same same TF. If I have learnt anything from these pages it's to place a very high value on your trades. I've started strongly and fallen away three years running…aiming to break that run this year by using the vast amount of knowledge on offer here!
Best of luck Derek.
r2d2 · 26/03/2015 at 01:10
Spot on
Jono · 26/03/2015 at 02:05
The Gaz dilemma, I've been toying with the idea of starting my team without the great man but I just can't do it.
I'm no expert but I seem to agree with Derek in picking Ablett. We are all assuming that he is going to produce average scores and drop in value to then pick him up later, in the process burning 1, most likely 2 trades. But at the same time giving other players maybe more credit than they deserve? We don't know that they will also produce average scores and then you'll be stuffed, too strapped for cash to bring gaz in your team.
At the same time , maybe not all players in your teams will fire which will also require a change up (another burn trade).
gaz will be a keeper. Thats one sure thing. In the thick of things, if he comes out and smashes the sc scores to pieces, your already 2 trades up on everybody else who hadnt picked him.
Chris · 26/03/2015 at 10:32
Also, as mentioned in a the Podcast, his TOG will surely be affected early rounds, this impacting his scores. Regardless whether he performs at 100%, without a preseason they take it lightly with him
seaford scouse · 26/03/2015 at 20:45
great discussion this 🙂
my own view is that he is greatness personified and until its proven he's below par or not picked round 1 then he will be in my starting team.
one thing I would recommend though is to use this pre round 1 luxury to 'trade' him out of your team adjust as best you can then 'trade' him back in. my other lines look much improved as a result of this and im pretty certain that this would not have been the case otherwise. good luck with your coin toss everyone!
Shady · 25/03/2015 at 21:05
Epic set up mate. Is there enough room in mid to have both Dom Tyson and ollie wines do you think
Dex_ · 25/03/2015 at 21:25
Cheers Shady!
I'd say you's have one break out contender. feel Ollie is in a better team and will benefit.
Tyson is a Gun though, but i like Wines better.
@milesdeutscher · 25/03/2015 at 21:19
Since everyone seems to be sharing, i'd love your thoughts on my team. Changing constantly but pretty sure I'm getting close:
Shaw, Taylor, Newnes, Lumumba, Oxley, Saad (Hamling, Goddard)
Pendlebury, Fyfe, Selwood, Beams, Dangerfield, Newton, Cripps, Ellis-Yolmen (Heeney, Vandenberg, Miller)
Goldstein, Maric (O'Brien)
Gray, Bartel, Martin, Salem, Clark, Hogan (Daniel, Lambert).
Derek · 25/03/2015 at 22:41
The “front” 11, rucks and Fwds, I’m seeing in almost every team, maybe with dusty instead of Bartel. Even mids have a similar look, this year the battle ground is the Defence!
JoeWoolcock · 25/03/2015 at 22:46
Quite right Derek, in fact my 11 are pretty much identical to that as well!
Booma · 25/03/2015 at 21:22
Like it Dex, it’s balls out & only way to win the overall. Best of luck.
Dex_ · 25/03/2015 at 21:23
Cheers Booma!
The Ranger · 25/03/2015 at 21:27
It's a beauty Dex. Some real clarity of vision there.
I'm loving that both you and Lek have stuck with GnR.
At one point I think I had five Mid pricers but I had a good word with myself after NAB 3 and have come back to the fold.
Best of luck for the season!
Dex_ · 25/03/2015 at 21:35
Cheers Ranger.
Feel GnR is always the way to go. Too risky and easy to stagnate any other way
The Ranger · 25/03/2015 at 22:02
I think a lot of people are getting sucked into thinking a hybrid will work this season but I'm sticking fat with what's worked before.
Gotta aim high…
Lostlarrikin · 25/03/2015 at 21:35
Another nice GnR squad.
Quality Dex.
I has been toying with a 7 prem mid for a while but appeared too many mid rook cows avail to hold that structure. I see the merit and potential jump it can give you.
My main concern is Goodes, his js and cash generation potential. But hey u gotta hang em out somewhere.
Not a Judd fan but can’t begrudge the selection.
Good luck mate.
Timmy · 25/03/2015 at 21:39
Love Judd, one of my favourite players, but theres absolutely no chance he's going anywhere near my supercoach team. Not in his prime, we've seen the best of him. Awkward Price, best case scenario he'll make 20-30k, definitely won't be close to being a keeper, especially in the midfield. If he was available in def or fwd it'll be a different story but when you want midfield keepers to average at least 110+ can't see any sense in picking him. Just my opinion, happy to be proven wrong. (unlikely though)
Booma · 25/03/2015 at 21:43
Been flipping players in & out for weeks now, rooks subject to change (am anticipating a negative outcome for Bombers come Mar 31st). Any feedback Dex would be appreciated
Shaw, H. Gibson, J. Newnes, J.
Goodes, B. Dalgleish, L. McIntosh, K.
Edwards, S. Saad, A
MID
Fyfe, N. Sloane, R. Priddis, M.
Parker, L. Griffen, R. Wallis, M.
Cripps, P. Ellis-Yolmen, C
Heeney, I. Vandenberg, A. Miller, T
RUC
Mumford, S. Goldstein, T. Brooksby, K
FWD
Gray, R. Bartel, J. Bennell, H.
Salem, C. Clark, M. Tarrant, R
Daniel, C. Lambert, K
JoeWoolcock · 25/03/2015 at 22:53
Sorry mate, I'm no Dex! But liking POD picks in Priddis, Parker, Wallis and Bennell – they could really help in the leagues. Only real question mark would be Robbie Tarrant given other fwd rooks (e.g. Lamb, Lonie) but there's definite potential here.
Booma · 26/03/2015 at 08:31
Cheers mate
splinter · 25/03/2015 at 21:50
im sorry to say but the superocach community is delirious if they think chriss judd will avg anything more than 95.
throttlefinger · 25/03/2015 at 22:03
What stat makes you think that, Splinter?
splinter · 25/03/2015 at 23:22
on a steep decline in sc output, and injury concerns.
throttlefinger · 25/03/2015 at 23:29
You take that 6 score out and that's a 98 average. And true, he's older so more susceptible to injury (as Gaz showed last year). But I only need him for 5-6 rounds at least, 11 at most.
Also, Blues schedule doesn't get daunting until R8. Before that is Richmond (120 career ave), WCE, Dons (who probably be, um, lighter than usual), Pies, STK, Lions, and GWS.
For the money, I think he's gotta a better chance of earning cash than Stevens, Wells or Rich. But that's just my gut call.
splinter · 24/05/2015 at 20:36
i am never wrong
skate or die · 25/03/2015 at 21:58
i have a feeling Josh Kennedy from west coast can average 105 leading up to the byes, with WC easy first half of the season. Also, i can see Andrew Gaff will head into the byes on 115+.. can you guys tell me if i'm cuckoo?
medadsson · 26/03/2015 at 00:19
They are big big calls re Kennedy and Gaff. Both of their best averages have been around 90 mark. I just cant see too much improvement at WC this year given loss of McKenzie and absence of Darling on top of last years retirements. Hope I am wrong but I don't see WC winning more than 5 or 6 up to the bye round. I wouldn't call you cuckoo, just very optimistic, which is a good place to be 🙂 but they are no's from me.
jockreynolds · 25/03/2015 at 22:00
Nice Dex – that FWD line is as plumsey as I've seen! Engine room is STUFFED for point generation – sure youve got your contingencies lined up is things don't roll your way when teams are announced.. love it mate
Donavan · 25/03/2015 at 22:05
What are peoples thoughts on including Essendon senior players if they are cleared to play.
I have noticed that neither Lekdog's or Dexter's teams have any Essendon senior players (other than Dalgleish, who got a game in the NAB bc the others didnt play).
I have Hibberd and B.Goddard (I know his not subject to ASADA stuff). Would you shy away from these guys because they havent played competitive practice matches (NAB challenge), or do you take Jobe Watson on his word that they are ready to go, come round 1.
Are they better upgrade targets given that they may start slow?
Thoughts please.
LEKD0G · 25/03/2015 at 22:15
Can't be ready for round 1 if you haven't actually played, I haven't chosen Goddard because I couldn't fit him in, will look to bring him in.
Hibberd is a very solid selection
Dig Dug · 25/03/2015 at 22:14
Calling it now. MITCH WALLIS. BREAKOUT YEAR. LOCK!
JoeWoolcock · 25/03/2015 at 22:39
I'm seeing your logic mate. He's been in and out of my side since Libba went down. Good luck!
nicko · 25/03/2015 at 22:18
Any thoughts on my Team appreciated.
Shaw, Taylor, Newnes, Lumumba, Brown, Saad, (Goddard, Mcintosh)
Ablett, Pendles, Fyfe, Priddis, Griffen, Rich, Anderson, Heeney, (VandenBerg, Ellis Yolmen, Lambert)
Goldstein, Maric ( Read)
Gray, Martin, Swan, Salem, Clark, Lamb (Stelle, Caleb)
Cheers all.
JoeWoolcock · 25/03/2015 at 22:41
Really solid side Nicko. Anderson a vest candidate if he plays but overall loving the structure mate, nice work.
nicko · 25/03/2015 at 22:53
Thanks Joe, appreciate the feedback.
nicko · 25/03/2015 at 22:57
Looking at potentially taking out Gray and going to a Bartel with Anderson going up to a Cripps or Newton. I'm not sure on Gray. I know the community will say I'm crazy, although he has only had one 100+ season. I'll probably end up with him come season end, but not sure on starting him.
JoeWoolcock · 26/03/2015 at 08:24
Agreed, I actually did the same thing. The one downside of increased mid time is that the tag might go to him more often. Not saying that'll hinder his output much but it's enough for me to leave him out at 600k
Orsum · 25/03/2015 at 22:23
Yeah well said you big, tough man you.
Instead of being the worlds biggest bell end, how about posting your team for us to rate Soapy.
Or maybe you’re a 13 year old posting from your mums basement?
Rock-MAN · 25/03/2015 at 22:39
Bellchambers or Zac Smith? Or Matthew Kreuzer?
I can only afford some cheap rucks.
Got Luey No.2
Derek · 25/03/2015 at 22:47
I have thought about Tom Hickey. He had knee op last year and if now fully fit, priced cheap because of missed games last year, although would have liked him under $400k. Bulked up to over 100kg and will be #1 lone wolf ruck at saints.
Pyke is worth considering as well.
If either were a bit cheaper, I’d be interested
JoeWoolcock · 25/03/2015 at 22:48
Kreuzer out for a few more weeks yet and shared ruck role at the suns will restrict Smith. Bellchambers will score highest if he stays on the park but that is also unlikely.
Booma · 26/03/2015 at 08:50
If your strapped for cash & like Joe said GS share their ruck duties, you can get Nicholas for about $2
Booma · 26/03/2015 at 08:53
Sorry premature post. Lol.
Not Nichollas but Gorringe for $280K, only played 3 games due to injury last year but averaged 75 ppg, didn’t watch his preseason though so not sure how he’s tracking.
Best of luck
Leighroy · 25/03/2015 at 22:44
Wow dex love the team, looks almost the same as mine. Only real differences are I run 6 deep in mids with Newton and cripps m7 m8 and I have goodes at d5 with jaksch at d4. Other then that exact same structure. Question for you in rucks as I have the same problem running with exact same ruck line. R11 and r13 what do you plan to do to avoid a donut in each of those rounds? Do you plan to trade in a r12 playing ruck to sit on bench or plan to try and get say Ryder and take one donut in round 13 using swing links?
Derek · 25/03/2015 at 22:49
I think Crisp and Newton could be the Polac and Tyson of 2014
Donavan · 25/03/2015 at 22:51
Leighroy,
During the Bye rounds only the top 18 on-ground players scores contribute to your score, so you are allowed upto 4 donuts on the ground in each of rounds 11, 12 & 13 without effecting your supercoach weekly score.
Leighroy · 25/03/2015 at 23:20
I believe that’s only in league games not overall rank. I do stand to be corrected though
Jayden · 26/03/2015 at 01:58
No Leighton it is in league and rank
Donavan · 25/03/2015 at 22:44
If anyone has Franklin in their team, are you going to play the VC loophole with him in round 1. I will be.
1. He loves beating-up Essendon
2. If Essendon are under-manned because of ASADA the Swans will probably kick 40 goals
3. If Essendon are cleared to play, and most havent played a practice match the Swans will probably kick 30 goals
4. If no Tippet, Buddy will kick most of the goals
Rock-MAN · 25/03/2015 at 22:47
Might be rested..
Donavan · 25/03/2015 at 22:53
If his right to play, they surely would play him.
They dont want another round 1 shocker, like last year against GWS.
Derek · 25/03/2015 at 22:52
I know there are only 3300SC points per game, but what is the record points for a team v another?
Garry Rohan might even raise the bat!
fatboyfat7 · 25/03/2015 at 22:53
Interesting team, you reckon McKenzie is in contention? Personally not a fan of the Goodes pick.
Kev · 26/03/2015 at 09:05
Why is that, fatboy? Needs to be upgraded obviously but had a high scoring role in the nab games
kyle k · 25/03/2015 at 22:59
what is the go with B. Goodes? no news yet?
@SeanySamp · 26/03/2015 at 00:35
Waiting for them to LTI Libba so hopefully Goodes will take his spot on the senior list. Lock if plays Rd 1 IMO.
Hazza_08 · 25/03/2015 at 23:16
Does this mean GAZ is starting to become somewhat of a POD? Am I better off going with Judd. If gaz gets the vest and ave 110 he will drop to 600. Tough decisions. Would love ur thoughts community.
chops · 25/03/2015 at 23:34
Here's a likely scenario for you Hazza…
Eade picks him for Rd1 but he's underdone so his TOG is limited and he plays mainly half forward to ease him in, and scores 80(av134). Next up Saints at home, he improves to 100(av133), keeps getting stronger to 110 against Cats(av126) and by Rd 4 and 5 (GWS, Bris) he's back to the GAJ of old, scoring 130 both rounds (av144 and 131)
If this occurs he scores 550 points over the 5 rounds (av110) and his price drops to 647K, a drop of 88K.
So mate, that's an extra 47K onto what you're thinking. But of course he may score more or he may score less……whether he's in your team or not, the decision is yours….
r2d2 · 26/03/2015 at 01:22
And that why I have him … I don’t see the big price drop people expecting , I look fwd to him smashing 130in round 1 and just getting better from there
Phil · 26/03/2015 at 10:33
Look at it this way fellas, there are 8 premium midfielders I like. But I can't start with all of them due to salary cap and also I think Cripps, Newton and CEY are 3 of the best scoring rookies going around. So there's gonna be 2-3 I don't start with.
All of my 8 premium midfielders are capable of averaging 115 otherwise I wouldn't consider them. So if Gaz does start the first 5 rounds at an average of 110 isn't it logical that I don't start with him, given he is giving up 25 points to say Griffen, and potentially 50-75 points to some of my better midfielders?
chops · 26/03/2015 at 12:06
That's a fair assumption Phil and one that I accept, but there are more than 5 rounds in a season. How many points will Griffen concede to Gaz between Rds5-22. My guess will be more than 25.
Phil · 26/03/2015 at 15:47
i agree 100% with that chops but by Round 5 I plan on having Gaz so comparing him to Griffen from 5-22 won't make a difference to my team as I plan on having them both by then.
Simon · 25/03/2015 at 23:22
Thoughts on a second ruck with 415,300 to spend was think z.smith or leuy
Marco_Polo94 · 26/03/2015 at 00:06
Only person i considered under 400 k was TBC, too much risk tho…. how much is hickey?
@SeanySamp · 26/03/2015 at 00:33
If TBC is named Rd 1 I will strongly consider picking him. Averaged 85 and 81 in 2012 and 2013. If he replicates this, would be a great upgrade to the best looking ruckman just before the byes.
Swans2012 · 26/03/2015 at 10:03
I reckon big bell is a lock if he’s named for all the reasons you just stated, gives us time to see how the new rules effect scoring. Luey was good as well in the nab if you take his tog % into account, 72,44,and 96 points from 59 53 and 68 % of game time. extrapolated to 80 % + game time which he averaged in 2013 (20game season) = healthy scoring.
If he can stay on the park….
Marco_Polo94 · 25/03/2015 at 23:43
Lekdog wasn't kidding when he said your team was a thing of beauty…. that's the best looking midfield i've seen all season!
Marco_Polo94 · 25/03/2015 at 23:46
Is it too much to have Lewis, Parker and griffen in my midfield? I have the coin to upgrade lewis or parker to a beams or selwood if i want.
@SeanySamp · 26/03/2015 at 00:30
I really like the look of Beams this year – could get back to 120. I reckon Lewis will stay around a similar average to last year, whereas Parker will increase it a bit. So I would go Lewis > Beams.
Marco_Polo94 · 26/03/2015 at 09:45
yeh looks appealing. Many will have beams tho compared to Lewis.
@SeanySamp · 26/03/2015 at 10:22
Yeah true, Lewis could be a bit of a POD.
Steve · 26/03/2015 at 00:03
Better off with
A. Mummy, Langdon and Sheppard.
Or
B. Maric, Johnson and Ibbotson
Marco_Polo94 · 26/03/2015 at 00:05
B
@SeanySamp · 26/03/2015 at 00:28
I agree B
Steve · 26/03/2015 at 01:11
Thank you gents and good luck
Blueprime · 26/03/2015 at 01:20
B
@SeanySamp · 26/03/2015 at 00:27
Not sure about the 7 premo midfield Dex – could work though. Thanks for the insight!
Maric at R2 and Lamb at F8, or Bellchambers (if he plays Rd 1) and Bontempelli at F4?
Josh_w · 26/03/2015 at 02:00
Love the no ablet can’t see why people still argue the contrary. He has had no contact pre-season and no serious injury before. As it stands his price will drop unless he out scores his average, which he will probably have to do in less then a game of footy, assuming he will be subbed out towards the end of the game against there weak draw or at least left forward to rest. I understand that if you keep him in your side and his price climbs back up to where it is now come season end you don’t loose money. However you do miss out on potential cash generation in other players and also obviously saving more money getting him at a likely reduced price a few weeks in.
Apart from obviously the use of trades am I missing something big that would make you select him..?
Derek · 26/03/2015 at 08:49
Remember prices don’t change until after 3 rounds, and then it is on 3 week rolling average. Won’t take long for the first or second week to be gone from Gaz score.
Tom · 26/03/2015 at 02:50
I would appreciate any feedback from the community about my current lineup:
Def: H Shaw, Newnes, KK, R Henderson, C Pearce, Hamling (McIntosh, Saad)
Mid: Peddles, Fyfe, Lewis, Griffen, D Tyson, S Selwood, Cripps, Ellis-Yolmen (J Anderson, Heeney, Vandenberg)
Ruck: Mumford, Bellchambers (Cox)
Fwd: Gray, Bartel, Swan, Bontempelli, Salem, Clark (Lamb, Lambert)
Thanks.
Kev · 26/03/2015 at 08:54
What's your reasoning behind Selwood, Tom?
Tom · 26/03/2015 at 10:26
I have had him in the back of my mind for some time as a POD. IMO he should be a 100+ SC player as he was in 2012 and 2013 when he averaged around 103-104. Last year he had an ankle injury from round 3 that held him back and has left him significantly underpriced. Interrupted preseason but I am trusting that the Eagles have taken a conservative approach to their VC. Scored 117 in the last game of the NAB and looked good enough to convince me that he is ready to go and should average a minimum of 90-95 (guaranteed price increase) and hopefully 100-110. If things go to plan (which they never do) he should be an easy upgrade to a superpremium come the bye rounds.
Booma · 26/03/2015 at 09:05
I like it Tom, only one I’m not sold on is Pearce in DEF. Hopefully some of your under priced mids can generate some quick cash for you & you can upgrade for more consistent high scores as the MID is a little skinny IMO on high rollers. Love the Bont selection, wanted him in mine but didn’t have the coin or would of had to drop one of my MID premiums. Good luck.
Sana · 26/03/2015 at 08:20
Parker or Lewis? Struggling with this one…
Kev · 26/03/2015 at 08:52
Asked and answered above, Sana. Control+F – Search the page for Parker or Lewis
Sana · 26/03/2015 at 12:07
Ahhh, good one thanks Kev
Tom McVilly · 26/03/2015 at 09:08
Need help please community,
Deledio or Martin as a starting F2?
zeesus · 26/03/2015 at 09:24
Dusty
StretchMarks · 26/03/2015 at 09:10
Nice team Dex. This year the most interesting line is the rucks. Your team, like a lot of others, has gone for an expensive dual premo option. I can understand that is a natural reaction to the removal of the R4. However, given the changes in ruck scoring for this year, I think the scores for ruckmen are going to be down across the board. I am therefore taking the opposite tack and selecting 2 underpriced ruckmen (Nic Nat and Bellchambers). My thinking is that they will have more chance of increasing in price than the other rucks, or will fall in price by less. The dollars saved will go into the midfield to maximise point production. I will not keep these rucks all year, but by the end of the year actually plan to have Goldy and Maric there. I know it is a risky strategy, but I have given it a lot of thought and think it is a great POD.
derek · 26/03/2015 at 10:00
my team up until yesterday had Goldy and Maric locked away….by throwing Bellchambers into the ruck I have enough cash to upgrade Crips to Griffin….This is a major structure change that I hadn't given much thought to.
Bellchambers & Griffin or Goldy & Crips?
Sarah · 26/03/2015 at 15:00
Goldy and Cripps. Cripps will make far more money than Goldy may lose, and you've got the number 1 ruck for the year already locked and loaded!!
Swans2012 · 26/03/2015 at 10:09
I’m with you, taken it a step further by locking in big bell and luey. Risky but allows maximum spend elsewhere and gives me time while those two hopefully appreciate in $$ to assess who will be this years standout rucks.
zeesus · 26/03/2015 at 09:23
Thoughts on Zac Smith?
LEKD0G · 26/03/2015 at 09:36
I discuss him in my latest video…I do not like the selection of Zac Smith one bit
zeesus · 26/03/2015 at 17:12
Thanks Lek, will watch and learn.
derek · 26/03/2015 at 09:45
am I letting my love of Hawthorn get in the way here, but I am thinking of putting Brad Hill in my midfield.
4th year. SC averages of 28, 59, 75 first three years. Has improved his tank and it a running machine, kicking and tackling has improved, I can see him averaging 85-95 this year.
I know I said I was going to have a Hawks-free team this year as too many of my beloved hawks have hurt me in past years.
zeesus · 26/03/2015 at 17:11
Was thinking the exact same thing derek! I am also a hawks fan. Loving Bradley's work though…
Spida · 26/03/2015 at 09:58
What is the $ figure to divide a player's price tag by so we can calculate what avg points they're expected to output please? From memory it's around $5,500? ie GAJ expected to avg 134 per week ($734k / $5,500) …
LEKD0G · 26/03/2015 at 10:18
5735 but changes as the season progresses
Spida · 26/03/2015 at 10:30
Thanks mate.
OldOcker · 26/03/2015 at 10:47
Spida, I think at the moment the figure is about 5375.
Cheers.
Charlesy · 26/03/2015 at 09:59
Thanks Dex. I’ve gone for a similar structure to you and Lek and my hope is that a strong mid and forward structure plus premium rucks to begin the season will hold up as I slowly build my backline. The main logic behind this is that I’m still unsure of who the top 8 defenders will be. I’m new to the Community and really enjoy the positive vibe. Thanks people
SuperDave · 26/03/2015 at 10:11
Would love to select Goodes, but from what I understand he is rookie listed and was not elevated by a deadline set being Tuesday this week. This would mean he can only be elevated in event of a Long term injury of another player. Can anyone clarify their understanding on this?
Matt · 26/03/2015 at 10:59
Already have Liber on LTI so they can elevate Goodes whenever they want. Similar situation at Melbourne with Vandeberg who can be elevated at any stage as Petracca is on the LTI.
The deadline earlier this week was for clubs to elevate nominated rookies, this is different to elevating players of the rookie list in the event of LTI
PJ8 · 26/03/2015 at 11:10
Because Libba is on the Long Term Injury List, a player can be elevated at any time.
David · 26/03/2015 at 10:15
Still can't believe T Adams is in not so many fwd lines! A break out year will avg over 90. Is it because of his kicking?? Will definitely play in the midfield.
Bako · 26/03/2015 at 10:42
Too inconsistent and absolutely butchers the ball
OldOcker · 26/03/2015 at 10:29
G'Day Dex,
There is no tenting issue here Dex,
I thought I had gonads of cast iron, Yours must be titanium or just bloody huge.
I like what you have done with your team but would be concerned that you are not getting enough cash generation from the midfield.
I understand where you are coming from Dex and it is a very gutsy team mate, I personally do not think that defensive rookies will generate enough cash this year and I am going to D4 and possibly D5.
Like you say Dex you have to take risks if you want to win it
NOT a fan of Michael Johnson and think he is over priced for an extra $7,000 (If you have it) Robert Murphy would be a much better choice in my opinion. (I have the other 3 selections for community debate myself)
Stick to your guns I am planning on going without GAJ too but do have contingency plans if I think he is right to go for round one.
All the best for the year mate.
Hicksy · 26/03/2015 at 10:37
I would appreciate any feedback from my team so far…
Def – shaw, Gibson, newnes, Lumumba, n.brown, mcintosh (saad and hamling)
Mids – pendlebury, fife, selwood, Lewis, meals, crips, newton, Ellis-yolmen (anderson, heeney, vandenberg)
Rucks – goldstein, bellchambers ( r. O'brien)
Forwards – gray, martin, swan, Salem, Clark, hogan (lambert and lamb)
Bako · 26/03/2015 at 10:40
I’d only select Bell chambers in the forward line, and even then I wouldn’t do it. Apart from that a solid team, really like the Anthony Miles selection, ripper midfield point of difference
Bako · 26/03/2015 at 10:37
Hey dex, I’m thinking of doing the same thing with the juddman, but I’d just like to know which round you’re hoping to make the gaz trade, and whether or not it would be a better option to keep 300k in the bank and select Newton, Rich or Hallahan to swap use one of them to Gary after they’ve risen in price. So who do you think will make more of a price rise out of Judd or the 3 others, and would it better to select Judd even if he won’t make as much cash because he will give you more points from the early rounds.
Thanks in advance
Hicksy · 26/03/2015 at 10:38
Meant to be fyfe and neale in kids
Phil · 26/03/2015 at 10:39
One point that probably should be noted regarding Abletts pre season, or lack of, is Joel Selwood last year. Didn't play any NAB games, was in a race against the clock to be fit Round 1 and went bang! Now, Selwood did have a different type of injury to Gaz but my point is that a champion can just rock up underdone and perform.
OldOcker · 26/03/2015 at 11:13
Hi Phil, I do not think anyone is questioning his fitness base but more the point that it is hard to come back from a serious shoulder injury when he has never had a serious injury before. He has not had the CONTACT work and his confidence in that shoulder would have to be questioned.
If he is named round one there is also the chance that he will be managed and be subbed off.
I do not think that he will play round one if he is not right because he is too much of a professional and therefore will be in my team if he is named.
Cheers.
derek · 26/03/2015 at 11:45
talk of Gaz not having Contact work is based on a few media reports from the club and a few words from Gaz at a press conference. What I know about AFL clubs is that they are always very careful with what information they let the public (and other AFL clubs) know about their players, especially their guns! If Gaz plays round 1 he is ready!!
OldOcker · 26/03/2015 at 11:51
derek, Spot on mate.
chops · 26/03/2015 at 15:49
Suns member here Derek and you're 100% correct. Gaz is at the club right now doing a heap of contact work with Matty Kennedy. He put in a session yesterday too, and I believe tomorrow will be another one. So if he's named Rd1, then he's right to go.
Marco · 26/03/2015 at 13:49
Selwood was not priced at $740k. That’s my problem with it. I see him dropping in price even if named.
FearTheBeard · 26/03/2015 at 10:40
Love some advise lads.
I have played past 2-3 years and gone pretty well. I finished 2nd overall in my friends comp last year and compete with my father and his friends and my friends so its a bit of a serious comp for us!
Anyway here is how it sits at present :
Shaw, Murphy, Newnes, Brown (may go to Dalgliesh if Bombers blow up), McIntosh, Saad – Oxley, Hamling
Fyfe, Selwood, Beams, Parker, Wines, Griffen, Newton, Cripps – Heeney, Vandaberg, CEY (may lock in the young suns gun for vanda)
Goldy, Maric – Cox
Gray, Bartel, Martin, Salem, Clark, Lambert – Daniel, Lamb
Only thing I've been toying with is getting Swan back in the forwards and upgrading Brown to Ibbo at the expense of Selwood to a rookie.
Also can afford to swap Selwood to Pendles though unsure with the Pies at present.
Had Gab & Franklin though prepared to wait and see how they come along. I really have always had Buddy and hes a fav to watch though a bit concerned for now.
Thoughts guy?
Cheers!
derek · 26/03/2015 at 11:53
leaving Swan out is interesting. he is very well priced and hard to ignore.
Midfield strong with Crips at M8. Having two DEF rookies on field and Nil in MID is a big risk, maybe look at having 1 mid rookie and 1 def rookie on field. Newton to a cheap mid rookie and McIntosh to C pearce?
FearTheBeard · 26/03/2015 at 17:30
Thanks mat. Anyone else willing to throw a comment on the team and ideas?
Josh · 26/03/2015 at 10:56
Love your work Dex
Would like the communities thoughts on my team
Malceski, Simpson, Shaw, Newnes, Whitecross, Hamling ( Goddard, oxley)
Ablett, Fyfe, Selwood, Kennedy, Griffen, Cripps, Heeney, Saad ( Vandenberg, Elis-Yolmen, Miller)
Minson, Naitanui ( Nankervis)
Deledio, Goddard, Swan, Salem, Clark, hogan ( Steele, Lambert)
All this talk about Gaz is giving me second thoughts
Not sure about Nic Nat with just the 1 game not showing to much
Thoughts on these rookies?
Cheers
Josh · 26/03/2015 at 11:50
Also have $41,500 left
After looking at some stats Malceski and Simpson haven't played well thoughts on them
Thanks again
derek · 26/03/2015 at 11:57
don't think Whitecross will get a game for a few weeks, same with Goddard. You might have to move Saad to defence instead of Whitecross and pick up another mid rookie, you could get Cockatoo for the similar price of Whitecross big POD.
good team otherwise.
Josh · 26/03/2015 at 12:14
Thanks Derek
What do you reckon about Nic Nat
Swans song · 26/03/2015 at 12:05
I think nankervis is a waste of cash can't see him getting any games. Whitecross is not in Hawks best 26 players. I think better options than b.goddard for less money like Martin, buddy, Zorko. Stick with nicnat he will only get better if he stays fit.
Josh · 26/03/2015 at 12:16
Thanks
Might look into Goddard for maybe zorko
Yeah was thinking the same with Nankervis
Josh · 26/03/2015 at 12:10
Also have $41,500 left
After looking at some stats Malceski and Simpson didn't play to well
Thoughts on them too
Thanks
Derek · 26/03/2015 at 17:43
I like Simpson, one of the few genuine defenders who will play good midfield time
Doc2Drej · 26/03/2015 at 17:36
Freeman over Miller
Doc2Drej · 26/03/2015 at 12:04
Which 2 rucks of Mumford, Jacobs, Goldstein, Misnon and Maric? Personally thinking Jacobs and Goldstein, but I’d appreciate the community’s thoughts on which two based on point average, value and risk
SuperDave · 26/03/2015 at 13:23
Lowest risk, set and forget strategy would have to be Goldstein and Minson. Barely miss a game between them.
Same historically with Jacobs, but he has had injury issues this preseason and is very expensive, so some element of risk there. Mumford has potential to go massive, but high injury / suspension risk. Maric had strong end to 2014 but again has a high injury risk than goldy / minson.
If you want to take one safe option and one bold option, Goldy and Mummy could be the way to go.
derek · 26/03/2015 at 12:05
Nice team Dex.
Lewis is an interesting pick. I am trying to have a hawks free team (they hurt me every year). For almost same price you could get Gray. How would you compare lewis to gray? I would put them almost on par, but gray gives you the DDP link into the forward line.
Johnstone is big POD and I can see him doing ok. it just shows how thin the pickings are down in defence when Johnstone is the 17th most expensive defender this year.
I N Pieman · 26/03/2015 at 12:48
Nice team Dex. I like the M7 reach out for GAJ move. If your not picking Baby Jesus then the M6 or M7 contingency move is required. Could backfire or could be genius. Time will tell.
Tom.McV · 26/03/2015 at 13:35
DEF: H.Shaw, H.Taylor, J.Newnes, S.Higgins, N.Brown, A.Saad (A.Oxley, J.Hamling)
MID: G.Ablett, S.Pendlebury, N.Fyfe, O.Wines, R.Griffin, B.Newton, P.Cripps, C.Ellis-Yolmen (T.Miller, J.Steele, K.Lambet)
RUCK: T.Goldstein, T.Bellchambers (M.Cox)
FWD: R.Gray, J.Bartel, D.Martin, D.Swan, C.Salem, M.Clark (T.Lamb, T.Downie)
Doc2Drej · 26/03/2015 at 17:36
Id go one of your top 4 forwards down to Jack Martin so you can swap Belly up to Minno
KJU FC · 26/03/2015 at 14:18
With the first AFL game for the season being played on a thursday will the all the teams be revealed on the wednesday or just Carlton and Richmonds?
I N Pieman · 26/03/2015 at 14:57
Just Carlton & Richmond I would suggest. The rest should be Thursday night. Only squads for Sunday Monday games. Will make players like Jed Anderson risky to pick.
tommykmoore · 26/03/2015 at 14:27
Community, I'm struggling…I've been working hard all pre-season and now I find myslef with a team that is completely different from all that I have made before. Would love all of your wisdoms please!
Back: H Shaw, J Gibson, J Newnes, K Kolodashni, N Brown, A Saad (Hamling, McIntosh)
Mids: Pendles, Fyfe, Beams, Parker, A Swallow, S Selwood, Cripps, Eliss-Yolmen, (Heeney, Vberg, Steele)
Ruck: Goldy, Maric, (read)
Fwd: Grey, Bartel, Swan, Salem, Clark, Hogan (Lamb, Lambert)
All other teams I've produced have had GAJ, by not starting him, I want to be in a position to upgrade to him quickly through an underpriced mid (Swallow or Selwood). Both I feel are well underpriced. Backline rooks worry me but as long as they are playing ill have to take it, like everyone else!
Love any feedback.
Cheers!
TommyK
I N Pieman · 26/03/2015 at 15:23
Not bad at all Tommy. Not liking the Scott Selwood pick but. Simpson said the other day he's tagging this year. That never equates to good scoring. I'd have Judd Wells & even Rich ahead on S Selwood. Other than that your team looks solid. Good luck.
tommykmoore · 26/03/2015 at 15:37
Hi Pieman, thanks for the feedback mate!
Selwood is selected under the knowledge that he will likely be tagging, I've got no probs with that at all. He has proven that even when tagging he can avg 100+. I only need him to avg 85-95 and ill be happy and it will have been a good result.
I N Pieman · 26/03/2015 at 15:49
Think you might get a similar output from Ben Newton & he's over 200k cheaper. I like your ruck selections as well. I'm the same. Nic Nats game on the weekend was a concern so he became The Mullet.
tommykmoore · 26/03/2015 at 16:58
Yep Newton could avg similar to Selwood but it will take him longer to appreciate to Selwoods level. Selwood is selected primarily with the desire to upgrade by round 5-6 to Ablett.
Very pumped about our rucks! set and forget all year!
Doc2Drej · 26/03/2015 at 17:33
Try Judd instead of Scooter
tommykmoore · 26/03/2015 at 17:56
Thanks for the suggestion but looking for a POD there and see them averaging similarly over the first 11 rounds. West Coast also have a fairly decent run from memory.
Roosy · 26/03/2015 at 15:36
G'day Community! Would love some feedback on my team. Have gone through a long pre season and I think I may have nailed it. Would love your thoughts
Shaw, Gibson, Newnes, Goodes, Edwards, Saad, Oxley, Hamling
Pendlebury, Selwood, Beams, Parker, Griffin, Coniglio, Newton, Cripps, Vandenberg, Ellis-Yolmen, Miller
Mumford, Goldstein, Read
Gray, Martin, Bontempelli, Salem, Clark, Lambert, Steele, Lonie
I have gone with Coniglio for one reason. I need someone that I can trade up to Gaz when he returns to the legendary form we are used to. I'm not sure if Coniglio is the right choice, any suggestions would be grand. Otherwise, I could just use Newton/Cripps to get Gaz.
Thoughts please
I N Pieman · 26/03/2015 at 16:01
Couple of big POD's right there Roosy. Not having Swan is a big POD. Coniglio is a mega risky pick. Haven't seen him in anyone else's team. It's ok to take a couple of risks. Because if it backfires you can bail out before cash is bled. Personally I'd look at Judd or Swallow instead of coniglio. They are still POD selections. I like your structure. Right now it's the same as mine. Im still deciding if it's 6 or 7 premo mids.
Roosy · 26/03/2015 at 16:07
Cheers Pieman, is Swan necessary?
I N Pieman · 26/03/2015 at 16:14
Usually at this time of the year you can cut bacon off Swanny. But he's fit. Don't read into the NAB games, he was disinterested. Top 10 FWD I'm certain of & probably top 3 if he return to form. He's a proven goal kicking ball magnet.
Roosy · 26/03/2015 at 16:53
Pieman how do you suggest I get Swan and Judd in my side then? I need some cash from somewhere?
Doc2Drej · 26/03/2015 at 17:30
Gibbo to Brad Sheppard might give you enough cash to make the necessary trades
Sully321 · 26/03/2015 at 15:56
Jack Steele, Naitanui, and Daniel Rich
Or Bontempelli, Bellchambers and Newton
Doc2Drej · 26/03/2015 at 17:33
Instead of these two options id go for Salem, Minson and Hallahan (if you can afford). If it has to be out of the aforementioned options id personally go number 2, though cant say I trust any of the ruckmen you've chosen
Sully321 · 26/03/2015 at 18:04
Thanks but I already have minson as r1 and Salem as f4 if I went option 2 Salem would be f5
Luke · 26/03/2015 at 16:09
You have spent way too much cash in the defence in comparison to the forwards
Defence is the lowest scoring line of the four.
How many defenders ended up with 100+ averages last year?… 1
How many forwards?…. 7
The defence line should be the line you spend the least on by far because there is no value in it.
I N Pieman · 26/03/2015 at 16:16
The FWD rookies will score better than the defensive ones will.
Luke · 26/03/2015 at 16:28
That's all good, but I'd still drop one of the 3 defenders he has which are plus 400 grand. Newnes will average between 80 and 90, that's not great, better to have a rookie in that spot making some cash and spend the money at the start of the year to have Ablett or Rockliff in his team, you have to have both, or at least one of them in.
FootyFanatic · 26/03/2015 at 19:02
I wouldn't say Rockliff is a must have Luke, I cannot see him having a better year then last year which means he is going to drop in price.
Sc newby · 26/03/2015 at 16:45
667244 fill it up community
Should be a competitive league
shane · 26/03/2015 at 17:28
Im tossing up between a defender and midfireld combo, and both variations are worth exactly the same and leave me with exactly $0.00 left in the bank. As follows.. D5 Brette Goodes and the Mid is Lewis which is rd11 relevent to me also. The other is D5 an extra rook at $123,900 and I have exactly enough for Rockliff who is also rd 11 and both leave me with 0, significant arousal.curve
Doc2Drej · 26/03/2015 at 18:19
Goodes/Lewis the way to go
Doc2Drej · 26/03/2015 at 17:29
Has goodes been upgraded? if not, who else could be in the frame for the doggies?
OldOcker · 27/03/2015 at 14:19
Joel Hamling would be the only one I could think of that might get a game.
Cheers.
Twix · 26/03/2015 at 18:04
Bont or Taylor Adams (or any other forward around that price) for F4?
Thanks
Vince · 26/03/2015 at 18:56
The bont by a mile! Adams butchers the ball way to often
Vince · 26/03/2015 at 18:59
Or have you ever heard of a bloke named Dane swan?
Twix · 26/03/2015 at 19:54
Already have him as F3
DaBomb · 26/03/2015 at 18:18
Who should I choose to partner Goldstein in the rucks – Mummy or Jacobs?
OldOcker · 27/03/2015 at 14:20
Sandilands. Out of Mummy and Jacobs I personally would go Jacobs depending on whether you have cover for Mummy when he is injured or suspended.
Jacobs and Sandi served me well last year. (The first time ever I have not wasted trades in the ruck).
Goldstein and Sandilands for me this year.
GJ · 26/03/2015 at 18:41
Greetings community, first time poster and need help!
Have 593k, one midfield spot to fill and no Gazza. WHAT SHOULD I DO???
1) Pick a keeper like Lewis, (premium output, 0k in the bank, no trade to Ablett)
2) Pick a fallen star like Swallow/Judd (near premium output, 90/110k in the bank, some cash generation, trade to Ablett mid-season)
3) Pick a mid pricer like Rich/Hallahan (80pt ish output, 245/280k in the bank, good cash generation, trade to Ablett early-mid season)
4) Pick a rookie like Freeman (F), with Cripps/Newton (CN) to be used in the trade (65pt ish output (F), 470k in the bank, great cash generation (CN), trade to Ablett quite early in the season (CN))
Any advice would be appreciated, and would be really helpful
Thanks, advice greatly needed and would be greatly appreciated!
tgrims · 27/03/2015 at 08:03
Again, CEY on the bench… Waste.
CVT · 27/03/2015 at 10:17
Just tossing up a few mid priced options. Any help would be much appreciated! Bont or Adams and Hallahan or langford?
Thank you!
OldOcker · 27/03/2015 at 14:29
CVT, out of those I would be Bont before Adams and Langford before Hallahan.
Cheers.
Corey · 27/03/2015 at 16:50
everyone fill up 947065
matt · 27/03/2015 at 17:18
andrew walker or michael johnson ?
Sumuk · 28/03/2015 at 15:08
Guys, join my supercoach league, this league is a public league for anyone who is expereniced and taking supercoach seriously
Code = 269377
Thanks Everyone
brant · 30/03/2015 at 19:18
no point having judd hes not gonna b at his peak ever get a rookie (Jed Anderson) and get another power house forward
Bobby · 02/04/2015 at 12:45
im gonna go with a 6 premo mid
Comments are closed.