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Rookie spreadsheet & community poll

Published by Barron Von Crow on

Barron Von Crow - inner sanctumIts rookie crunch time community!

I’ve put together a spreadsheet which contains all of the rookies that played during the NAB Challenge and how they performed.
And let’s get down to business and select in the polls below which rookies across each line you have slotted into your team right now.
You will need Excel to use this one – but hopefully it will help a lot of you make sense of what we’re faced with rookie wise as we plow towards our first lockout!

 

CLICK HERE FOR THE ROOKIE SPREADSHEET

 (just use the tabs to navigate between the lines)
Use the tabs to navigate between the lines

 

Now lets get to the polls!

DEFENDERS

Which defender rookies (under $200K) are in your current team?

View Results

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MIDFIELDERS

Which mid rookies (under $200K) are in your current team?

View Results

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RUCKS 

Which ruck rookies (under $200K) are in your current team?

View Results

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FORWARDS

Which fwd rookies (under $200K) are in your current team?

View Results

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The Ranger

Top work Barron!
Outstanding effort, thanks.

Hollywood5550

Baron quick Q Why has SC got Blicavs as a DPP (MID/RUCK) when there are no other (MID/RUCK) choices ,am I missing something here???

MoshedPotatoes

you can trade out a mid then move blicavs to mid and replace him with a new ruck i believe. (no idea why anyone would)

Hollywood5550

Surely making him a (RUC/FWD) makes more sense???? Like Hale or Clarke ,
its dumb having him as a (RUC/MID)

@BarronVonCrow

I believe it's worked out based on the time they spend in each position. I remember reading somewhere that a player needed to play at least 25% of their TOG in another position in order to gain dual eligibility, so the fact that Blicavs is the only MID/RUCK would probably indicate he's a very unique player!

PDP

On Sunday, I spent several hours analizing/rating the various rookies and then you go and publish this outstanding piece. The only problem I see is that everyone's Supercoach will be very similar, whereby those who did a little extra homework would reap the gains. Oh well, we will see what happens. Thanks for your outstanding work. It certainly is far more comprehensive than my jottings.

CJay

Love your work Barron.

@TylerCArmstrong

Great stuff Barron! Any of the community considering Parker? I have a feeling he will end up in the top 8 mids.

Weary

Yep, highly considering. An absolute workhorse who can do it all. If Watson is banned I’ll be bringing him in I reckon.

PDP

How could anyone consider bringing in any Bomber who has not played the NAB cup series.
I was told that the Bombers will receive six months backdated from 13 November which equates them missing the first four or five games.

Sam Loy

Shhhh. Don't tell everyone or else they'll want him too.

Kev

Not very community minded of you, Sam

Sam Loy

Ah, now I feel guilty.
Sorry community.
Sorry CrouchingOne.

I most definitely have Parker in as my M3. Have done since I read LekDog's very convincing argument for him, and swapped Barlow out to make room.

Danners16

A good POD option, might have a bigger role with Jack injured

@TylerCArmstrong

what do you guys think he will average?

@RagingBulls34

People saying POD option, but he is in more teams than JPK. Roughly 8.5% each.

Sh00ter

Makes both PODS

chrissovan

Yes! He’s a hunter gatherer and hungry for the ball like Fyfe

Morse

F ing brilliant Barron……

Brilliant work and now probably the most valuable tool we will have to use in the next 10 days.

JJFYZZ

BVC Thank you. You're much better value than NVB. This along with the updated rookie cheat sheets will be like manna from heaven.

Kev

I'm running OS X at home but I'm sure it's brilliant, Barron. Appreciate the work you put in for the community.

Dino

Using the same platform. If it was in PDF it would be great.

boostboy76

Works fine with Office for Mac 2011

yurkins

yep pdf would be great

fuzzball

What happened to Cam McCarthy {GWS} thought he would be on this list for forwards

Patch

Above 200k, so along with Cripps he isn't on the sheet.

Although with that last showing against Sydney, 39 points doesn't cut it in my books. If he'd hit 50 or 60, yes, but 39 just isn't enough for me to spend that much on him.

Sh00ter

Rookies should be $250<

Danners16

Well done Baz! A very helpful and in depth spreadsheet, a must download.
For others if you want my league you can 449005
Thanks

jmy7

stuff barron. only th is ive got steele in the mid and krakour in the forward, just letting the community know

@themisfitsSC

wow fella amazing as always top work

@emhoy

I like the Tigers McIntosh but am worried he will be replaced with Newman once fit. What does everything think about this JS?

@themisfitsSC

yes @crouching just gave me heads up fair chance wont play. newman out ellis more mid time i think he may play..heres to hoping

jmy7

we will just have to decide between the players around the 123000 $ mark, and pick the one that lines up rd1

Tom

Anybody interested in making a cash league? Doesn't have to be big.

yurkins

yeah im into one
need a few more to make it interesting.

@OssieTerron

Yeap

Paul

Im keen

Mac

I see some people are running the D5 structure. I'm thinking of going D1?, Shaw, Gibson, Newnes, Goddard, Saad, Edwards, Hamling. Not sure wether I need a D5 like Goodes. Also, who should I have as my D1? Are Smith and Simpson worth the money?

Patch

I've had Shaw locked in since day dot. Looks the best pick, with Gibson only a few steps behind. Then it gets trickier. Lek's keen on Jaensch, but if you've got the cash Simpson should be up there. Only problem is you'll pick him up for less than 450k during the year.

dognino

I'm going Simpson, he's probably just over what he's worth, but I'm paying for the security of his consistent 90+ average and 20+games per season . There's not too many who will average over 90 without missing games to soft tissue injuries or having their long teeth rested.

Tony

Wonder if Crouch going down for the Crows gives Wigg a shot at half back with B Smith moving into midfield ?
Maybe another Def rookie to think about

cow roll

Wigg is a good player but had a nervous start. I see them using CEY as a mid instead.

RobDog

Great work Baron!

Saad and Lambert upgraded now which is good news.

League to join if anyone interested – 940029

Ben

By upgraded you mean elevated from the rookie list??

Dino

Would be good to get the spreadsheet in pdf format. Can't access it the way it is now.

yurkins

great idea pdf would really help

even if it was just basic

Boo Rad

Hey mate,

If you don’t have Excel download Google Sheets. It’s free and works just as well.

Cheers.

Bontemgasmic

Loving your great work Baron, excellent data

what would make this data even more useful is the TOG% per player per game

did the 52 Lachie Dalgleish scored in NAB1 come from 42% tog while his 106 in NAB2 came from 87% TOG ? etc

Lachie

Patrick Cripps or Dom Sheed?

throttlefinger

Barron, usually only do this for news but think this majestic sheet is worth it…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jPmb0F00YPE

George

Does anyone know if it's still possible to enter the Jock Reynolds Qualifier Group? Cheers.

liam

Wow Barron you astound me. so much work that you are sharing with us all. thanks to you and all the other contributors to this site. we owe you big time. good luck for the crows and your supercoach team

liam

and Barron for the slow of mind like myself, can you confirm, is the price diff at the start of the first bye? cheers

Sam

Thoughts on Brett Goodes?
Not necessarily in context, just want to hear some opinions

Sam

Great work by the way, loving this article

Derek

Honest selection and reasonable value. Could make a bit of cash but not enough to put him in just for cash creation. I think he could get 50-70, ok for his price.

I’m thinking of going with him and downgrading early to the first defence bubble rookie once they emerge, I think he will play and that’s a good start

Marco_Polo94

Pretty sure he averaged 90 two seasons ago. He's a steal. Will get elevated if he hasn't already.

liam

touk miller at gold coast; can he break into the midfield or find a place in the backline or is he a big chance of the vest?

Another Mike

On afl website there was mention of Broughton and Saad getting elevated. Nothing on Miller.

Chris

Miller was taken in the 2nd round of the national draft so is automatically on the senior list.

Seaford Scouse

Suns talking him up for Rd 1 debut Liam but I think the vest concerns are legitimate, pick with caution.

Tom

Note that Barron is using a "magic number" here of 5375 which is the starting magic number, the actual magic number decreases rapidly as the season begins down to about 5000. Hence the prices given are about 7.5% above what they will actually achieve. In addition, as each player's actual price approaches their implied price (as they go up in value), the price growth rate slows and never actually reaches the theoretical price (it approaches an asymptote). As such, after 10 rounds, the actual price will be roughly $20k short of the implied price.

Gold Rush

Is your name Tom Higginbotham by any chance? I s Narelle your Mum?

Seaford Scouse

Amazing Tom!

Can you clarify that there is actual more ‘value’ to be had from rookies than premiums all other things being equal as the inflated initial price of 7.5% would in theory then impact them less from an overall cash perspective (e.g.; $100k X 7.5% = $7.5k, $500k X 7.5% = $37.5k)

Cheers

Tom

Correct, all players are priced to average roughly 7.5 to 8% more than their previous year's average. This is so the sum of all players' prices across the entire competition stays constant throughout the year. As rookies gain value, the only way to maintain the total player values is for the established players to all decrease slightly in value. This is why most players, even when they increase their scoring average will drop slightly in price. For example, if Gary Ablett maintains his average of 136.7, he will drop to about $693k by round 10.
Rookies do not have an "inflated" value as such as their price is not based on any previous average but they do have more value as they are not subject to the 7.5% disadvantage of their experienced colleagues.
This concept is important to remember for mid-pricers in particular, they will not rise in value as much as expected and should not be used as cash cows unless you are confident they will increase their scoring average significantly. For example, Tom Bellchambers price of $304k is based on an average of 56.2. In order to make $150k in the first 10 rounds he will have to average 93 (more than 7 points higher than his previous best average). For a rookie priced at $124, the same price gain only requires an average of 56. Putting aside other advantages such as better scoring, ruck cover etc, a rookie is a far better bet in terms of cash generation than an experienced player.

Phil

Since I don't have spreadsheets I was wondering if someone could give me Ben Newtons average and tog after 3 games?

Bonters

not sure about TOG but he had scores of 55, 84 and 65 for an average of 68

Seaford Scouse

You can grab the tog (and scores and stats) from fanfooty Phil. Just click on the games he’s played in at the top.

Jayden

Cripps/Newton/Sheed gotta pick 2 of them Cripps is locked in not sure between the other 2

Northerner

sheed

donkey on the edge

Definitely Sheed

CVT

Dangerfield or Parker? It’s been my debate for so long now!

Seaford Scouse

Hmm too many question marks on Dangers role for me CVT can see him playing more forward unless he stays and signs up quick smart. Parker for me.

Marco_Polo94

Hmmmm. Tough. Danger played FF in their last nab game and he STILL racked up 120 SC points. I've got a feeling he will reach super premium output this season and be back to his best. But it would require plums I don't have. Parker is certainly a safer option.

Mac

With Crouch going down, does that mean Brodie Smith will have more chance to play in the midfield?

@BarronVonCrow

He was playing further up the field in the NAB already, so I don't think Crouch being injured will have much of an impact on him at this stage.

DJJ

Will you be posting any more Cheat Sheets lads?

@thecowza

Ben Lennon would be an interesting rookie pick.. should play every game this season.. 180k scores of 73,77,48 in th NAB

Worm

this info has sparked an interest in Lennon for me as well (thanks Barron), just hoping you are right about him playing every game (and hopefully not too many snot vests). Would expect him to be a more consistent scorer than Salem, even if they average about the same.

I N Pieman

Brilliant Baron. Great to see Saad & Lambert get upgraded yesterday. Adam Oxley is an interesting one. He looked pretty good the other night. He didn't have any mates either. Big chance for round one.

@BarronVonCrow

Oxley is an interesting one, didn't have him up high at the start of the pre-season, but if he plays he could make my team.

TigerArmy

Great reference piece Baron….quick question: How many tigers is too many? Looking at T.Hunt, K.McIntosh, Cotch, Lambert, Maric, Deledio, Martin & Lennon …. all offering such great VALUE (although I'll admit may bleed yellow and black).

@thecowza

8 is way to many! Should be looking at 3-4. I'd probably go Martin, Lambert and Maric, then if you're keen Cotch or Hunt as a POD.

TigerArmy

@thecowza You think Bennell or Bont is to outscore/average Lids?

@thecowza

I think Bennell and Bont are both good Value, but if your looking at a player similar price to Lid's i'd probably go with Bartel.

derek

they do have a great start to the year.

Marco_Polo94

First round bye, beware

Seaford Scouse

Leave your colours in the SC outer mate. If you find it tough puck your team without ANY players from your team then argue a case to get them in over those on the field already. Also bear in mind that there is a limit on points per game to be distributed and that this often affects how many top scorers you get in one team, especially one that’s unlikely to finish top 4. 3-4 is good advice for a limit.

Spifficator

I have created a league for fellow Jockstera – Y Fronts 814737. All welcome

Chuck

Hey Fella's

Just wondering about Martin or Deledio? whose the better option?

Blueprime

Delidio.

Phil

Martin

Will

Toss a coin..

Seaford Scouse

Martin has the higher ceiling but more risk, depends on what your looking for out of the choice Chuck. Safe and consistent go lids, risky variances but potential breakout with more mid time? Go dusty

jim

Has anybody got any thoughts on A Young from Port? Mid/fwd, $244, Ave 90+ during NAB?

Will

Would have thought Cripps, Van Berlo, De Goey, Newton, Sheed, O'rourke Etc would have been included, even though they are above 200k (slightly). Almost every team will have at least one of these 200k rookies in there team so would have been useful if they were included.

@BarronVonCrow

They're all included under the MID worksheet, Will.

Jimmy Joe

Hey there community! I keep fiddling when I should just leave it alone. I feel like a 15 year old again! My current dilemma is running one of either Rich or Newton at M6 with Cripps and Heeney at M7 and 8. What are your thoughts? Should I save the money and put Newton in or go with an in form Rich?

My current M1-5 is: Pendles, Fyfe, Beams, Parker, Boak.

Thanks folks. Happy Tuesday!

donkey on the edge

i had the same issue, but looking across the bigger picture I think rich will have the higher ceiling and will either become a keeper or a trade option to one. Newton couldn't get into the Port side hence his move so we are not entirely sure how he will go against real opposition in real games, particularly against the elite midfielders. Rich is proven and I think will return to the output we saw prior to his injury.

In saying that, if you want to save the cash and go with a 200k+ rookie then I would prefer Dom Sheed (WCE) over Newton. He is slightly more expensive at $214,500 but I think there is more value in him than Newton.

M1-5 look good although Im more a fan of Ollie Wines than Boak but thats just a personal preference thing

Good Luck

donkey on the edge

my bad meant Sheed is slightly cheaper ($500)

@Aurnen23Jordan

Deadset Legend

Tyler

Just went onto a quick website that lets you convert files, so here's a pdf version of the spreadsheet. Not as good as the excel version, but better than nothing:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/u10hrn1s0aaqk9x/RookieW

yurkins

great work thanks

Mick

New league #919262

Corz

Nice piece of work Barron; DPP status would have been a big bonus though.