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NAB Supercoach Significance Report – STK v HAW

Published by Jock on

mick-the-madGood evening community (or good day if your reading this morning after ), Mick The Mad Irishman here. I guess it’s my turn to shine some light and read between the lines of one of these NAB challenge games.

With just 2 weeks (that’s right 2 WEEKS) left until the first knockout we really need to nail down our players and this weekends games become ever more important to help us with those selections. With both St Kilda and Hawthorn going into this game with close to full strength teams I thought it was going to be a little easier than some of the games we’ve seen so far to gauge some actual significance. Turns out the gap between the top of the table and the bottom might be even larger than I and many others predicted. Hawks will be fighting for top spot on the ladder again this year. The Saints will be fighting to stay off the bottom.

Absent Players pushing for best 22 spot

St Kilda: N. Riewoldt (Omitted), J. Geary (Omitted), David Armitage (Omitted), H Goddard (Omitted), S. Savage (Hamstring 1 week), J. Billings (Hamstring – 3 weeks), S. Gilbert (Foot 7-9 weeks), F. Ray (Hamstring – 11-13 weeks), S. Ross (Hamstring – 10-12 weeks)

Hawthorn: G. Birchall (Knee – 1-2weeks), M. Spangher (calf – TBC), David Hale (Omitted), B. Whitecross (Omitted), A. Woodard (Omitted), B. Hartung (Omitted)

  • J.Geary (DEF $332,400) – Was disappointed not to see Geary named against this quality Hawthorne side to see what he likely to produce in the real thing. His scores of 152 (vs Brisbane) and 79 (vs Essendon) are all we have to go on if we are looking to name him in our sides. A strong showing tonight would have cemented his place in many teams, but as he didn’t play he remains another midprice defender left in limbo.
  • S.Savage (DEF $371,600) – Still recovering from a hamstring injury he picked up in his recovery after the Brisbane Lions game. Will be right to go round 1 but with only that one game (102 Supercoach points) to gauge him from, it will be hard for coaches to select him. Was prominent in my teams all preseason but like Geary has slipped into limbo. If you like to take risks he is still worth a thought.
  • B.Whitecross (DEF $198,700) – I’m calling it now Whitecross won’t be named in the Hawks round 1 side. All those who have him selected in their teams better start making alternative plans. With 27 man squad named you’d think if he was any chance to get named round 1 they’d give him 20minutes tonight. He did play 80% of a VFL game last weekend and got through the game with no issues to his knee. However he struggled with his fitness and it would be extremely unlikely he can prove he is match fit before round 1.
  • H.Goddard (DEF/FWD $122,300) – He has played in just the one NAB game and the Saints might just be resting him but not playing tonight might also say he is not in their best 22 at this moment in time. Have a lot of players to come back in before him too. Could it be that the most locked defensive rookie won’t get named round 1? Start making alternative plans. This is serious.

Significant Saint Kilda Performances

  • J.Steven (MID $455,900) – Finished joint leading possession getter in the game, with 33 disposals. However only finished with the 88 Supercoach points. His disposal efficiency of only 56% really hurt his score tonight. I can see him having games during the year where he finished with 75% disposal efficiency resulting in some monster Supercoach scores. These will even out the many sub 100 scores he is also likely to get replicating numbers like tonight. If you are going midprice heavy in your midfield and you don’t mind a bit of a roller-coaster ride then you need to have Steven in your team.
  • J.Newnes (DEF/MID $436,800) – I you don’t have this kid in your team then you’ve been living under a rock this preseason. Had a few quite spells during the game but managed to finish the night on 21 disposals and 102 Supercoach points. Was super clean (85% efficient) and kicks more than he handballs. Perfect for Supercoach and perfect for our backlines in 2015. 90+ average looking very achievable. Put him in your team already.
  • L.Dunstan (MID $400,800) – Had to mention him because he gave everything he had all night long and was one of the Saints best. Future star of the game and of Supercoach but can’t recommend him in 2015. Looking forward to see him develop though.

Significant Hawthorn Performances

  • The Team – three in a row very achievable. The depth on this list seems endless. Seems anyone could play anywhere tonight and they wouldn’t look out of place. Their transition from defence to attack was beautiful too watch. Only NAB and only Saints but I give them a better than 50% chance to go back to back to back.
  • B.Hill (MID $407,100) – Best on ground for me. Everything involvement seem to lead to a goal and his ability to break away from the contest at such speed and then have the poise to find a target was a highlight of the night. Finished with 122 Supercoach points. Will be inconsistent during the year but I think he does offer some value. Probably not enough to justify picking him in your midfield though.
  • J.Lewis (MID $588,200) – Pure class. Everything he did looked effortless. Finished with 33 disposals and 132 Supercoach points. Will be the Hawks highest scoring player again in 2015 but don’t seen him surpassing his 109 from last year. Top priced so think we can find better options in the middle at the start of the year. Solid option all the same.
  • S.Mitchell (MID $490,000) – Just has a great ability to know where to be at the right times. Had it all his own way tonight, running bounces on the wing, a goal from outside 50m, a lazy 33 disposals and 115 Supercoach points tonight. Mitchell is a fallen premium and is most definitely under valued. Unlikely to play 22 games but I can’t see him averaging under 100 again in 2015.
  • J.Gibson (DEF $497,200) – Had 11 disposals in the first term and finished the game with 28. Had it all his own way across the halfback. In a year where not much will separate the top 10 defenders you can’t really go wrong with seclecting him in your side.

Rookie watch

It was a bad night all round on the rookie front. The guys that did play didn’t do much to demand a place in our teams.

  • J.Anderson (MID $141,400) – It could be down to a battle between Anderson and O’Rourke for a round 1 birth for the Hawks. Both were okay tonight but you’d think Anderson is ahead on the back of better performances in the earlier games. Finished the night with 15 disposals and 65 Supercoach points. Won’t be surprised to see both Anderson and O’Rourke share the vest during the year. Not a certain starter for our Supercoach team but midfield rookies are starting to look thinner than we thought so could still justify a place on our benches.
  • B.Acres (MID $220,700) – 37 Supercoach points tonight. Doesn’t justify his price tag. Pass.
  • T.Membery (FWD $172,000) – 40 Supercoach points tonight. No service, no points. Better options up forward to be spending this much money for limited return. Pass

That’s it from me for tonight. I feel I covered all the players that were popping up in our Supercoach teams or ones that should be in the mix at least. Do you think I’ve missed anyone or how did you see tonights game?

Get involved in the comments below. This is your community as much as the next guys.

Stay tuned…..

Mick the Mad Irishman

Mick is one of the production crew members and key writer on the inaugural Jock Reynolds Fantasy football magazine. He is a risk taker, pint drinker, deep thinker and just that little bit mad, but time and time again he has proved to be one of the best fantasy minds in the country. He has finished in the top 1% of game players for the last 5 years, with a season high finish of 27 in 2013.

Follow the great man on twitter @Da_Mad_Irishman

CLICK HERE TO ORDER YOUR 2015 JOCK REYNOLDS FANTASY FOOTY MAGAZINE

 

 


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Simon

Do you think Lewis, priddas, s.mitchell, dangerfield

Swordfish

Well done mate. Correction on Goddard, he's only played the 1 NAB game. Also, what about Saad and Lonie?

Kev

Neither set the world on fire
Saad – 11 touches, 5 marks, 0 goals. 75% TOG. 48SC (3 clangers didn't help)
Lonie – 0 goals. 8 touches at 50% DE from 76% TOG. Had 2 goal assists. 33 SC

throttlefinger

Great review, Mick.

May beg to differ with Mr. Jordan Lewis. Starting to feel that he may pop 115 this year. He's definitely the star of the midfield and seems to be continuing the sublime play he ended 2014 with. Winning side that doesn't seem to be slowing down will make sure there are points to be had.

Not 100% sold on him but starting to like the potential and POD vs. Beams (and savings vs. Jelwood, who will slip in value).

MarcoPolo

Averaged 135 from his last 6 fixtures. Looks to have picked up where he left off! It’s him, Parker, danger or sloane for me ATM at M4.

Nars

Agree with you throttlefinger. I am starting him. I think he can even go 120. only in 2% of teams as well

dannyyboyy

hey throtts how are you bud. i tend to agree with mick on this one tho. lewis is a bit of a risk IMO. dont get me wrong, he will give great scores and possibly become a premium mid as it looks like he may be one already. but i just think when you are spending big money on a mid premium then there are better options out there and the aim is to get the best options you can possibly get. im gonna run a 5 premo/6 rookies midfield, (like ive done for the past couple of years bar the extra rookie) and i can pick 6 or 7 premos that i would choose before lewey.

he is definatly on my watchlist for an upgrade target tho. i had him in my side at the end of last season and he didnt let me down!

throttlefinger

Hey Dannyboyy! Who do you have ahead of him? My thinking is that the others you might be considering Beams, Jelwood, etc are priced at a point where they will most likely drop. Lewis, given his slow start last season, is a bit of a bargain. Can definitely see him going 115. And think he'll start the way he ended. Certainly looked strong in his NAB appearances.

Leighroy

Great write up mick. Can see the value in gibbo. With lake and frawley in the team I can see him getting a lot more free in the defense to roam around and try to get intercept marks and cheap disposals.

Seaford Scouse

It’s the reason they brought Frawley in Leighroy, lock him away all year, mate simple as!

Cezza93

Hard to say seeing Frawley will unfortunately take Spanghers position as their CHB. Gibbo was already playing 3rd man i suppose.

Jonesy

Outstanding self control Mick. Watching the crap that the saints dealt up must have had you assuming the chunder position by the 10 minute mark. I know that by half time i decided to watch a video of a 1980's netball GF instead, Those 80's sheilas had more agro, more skill, and more boobs than all of tonights players except Brian Lake.

Spifflicator

Correct Jonesy, this game proved that the Hawks are still bloody good, while the Saints are still bloody awful. Warming to Gibson and Lewis as round 1 approaches.

PJ8

ATTENTION! DO US ALL A FAVOUR AND DON'T CLOG UP THIS COMMENT SPACE WITH YOUR TEAMS.

Show us your team thread is for that. Stick to the topic mentioned.

Nice work Irish, would love your thoughts on J. Anderson, looking at Hawks tonight, they are a strong team and think hw will get vested as you said. Will you pick him?

King Menace

Which 2 should I pick

Selwood, JPK, Sloane, Priddis?

Donavan

Priddis & Sloane

They have the best early season draw. I see Selwood as an upgrade target

derek

I have JPK and Priddis in my team. Both are lock away and forget. You know what you will get from both, points in the bank.

@t_woof

I'd go with who best suits your bye strategy.

If had to choose two, i'd be with Selwood and JPK.

James

Nice write up Mick, certainly worried about Goddard now.

What do you guys think of Andrew Makie? Rebounding defender, more confident in him than Kelly?

Hazey

DO NOT TOUCH UNLESS YOU’RE MADE OF ASBESTOS!

James

Reason?

Cezza93

Mackies role is hard to pick mate and he can be very up and down. Some games he'll be the general with 20+ touches others he'll get around 10. Geelongs backline seems to be in favour of Enright, Bartel and Taylor racking up the disposals and intercepts. However granted Bartel has been named as Fwd/Mid this year by Scott himself, Mackies point scoring may possibly increase.

But i wouldnt pick him as a Cats supporter as much as i like his work on the field.

Hazey

Sorry for the caps mate! Mackie burnt me last year, inconsistent and just a bit beige. I forced myself into thinking he was value and underpriced when he is just a bit rubbish and carried by a great team.

Tim

Given Hodge is a similar price to Gibson, surely he is just as viable an option?

Seaford Scouse

He sure is Tim and definitely to start with, I’m just wary that they will manage his game time, particularly as finals approaches. He’s a superstar, (I still cant get over that brilliant tackle against Port last year that kept their GF place), and they will want him cherry-ripe for the business end but absolutely worthy of a spot.

r2d2

You. Mean the ridiculous holding the ball call ??

General Soreness

Agree with SS, Hodge will be managed, as will Mitchell.

themisfitssc

very good review Gibson a must that's for sure, lewis def on my mind…but will likely get the tag this year and with the aging players being managed, ill stay away from lewy at this poin, sidebum and priddis take my m3 and m4 spots

Marco_Polo94

Hmm didn't think about the tag. Reckon it will make much of a difference? Surely he's good enough for it not to affect him

themisfitssc

don't know mate, guess some weeks it will but that can be any player, and well not really a lot of great taggers etc and well his team mates will block for him the hawthorn way lol

Marco_Polo94

It's my M4 spot he would take. I either go Sloane and Zorko. Or Lewis and Gray. I know Gray has tough early fixtures and blah blah blah but I'm set with the rest of my team and if I have the cash to get him I think I may as well.

FootyFanatic

There are plenty of players tag worthy at Hawthon, Bradley Hill and Birchell often get a tag to take their run and carry out of the game and there is also Mitchell who could also get the tag. Lewis won't always get it as there are many dangerous players at Hawthon and some are easier to take out of the game then Lewis.

The Ranger

Thanks for the report Mick,.
Seriously considering going with Higgos D5 plan whereas I was planning for D4 and two onfield rookies.
Gonna be a lot of decisions to be made once the final teams for Rd 1 are announced.

derek

I'm a hawks fan, and have suffered in the Supercoach over the last few years because I have had to many Hawks in my team. They are a great team, but not a good SC team, they share it around to much, rest their stars at 3/4 time once the game is won.

I am warning anyone who selects a Hawk in their team this year. Most are fully priced.

Having said that, I do have priddis in my team, and I am seriously considering Lewis after last nights effort.

carlashirley90

Yeah the last 2 years has been plenty of 95-105 point players but no real ultra premium scorer from hawthorn.
Think the only stand out option is Gibson, he looks to be 90+ for 20-22 games this year (fingers crossed no injury). Think he will be a nice pod still because many SC'ers select defenders who run through the middle like Simpson, Shaw etc. Rebounding gorilla's are underrated and are just as good SC scoring wise.

As you stated The likes of Birchall and Burgoyne are going to produce same results.
Hodge, Mitchell will get rested a lot this year and Lewis is a champ but he will find this year tough now that he has proven to be Hawks midfield beating heart. still he could slightly improve scoring output from last year though.

@Seekersupacoach

How was McEvoy? Wondering if he is an option for our R2 position? POD? Will he play most of the year?

carlashirley90

Got 5 kicks 7 handballs 3 marks 2 goals 13 H/O and 5 tackles, not sure how much % on ground.
Ceglar out performed him though
7 kicks 8 hanballs 3 marks 2 goals 27 H/O and 2 tackles.

Sharing the ruck both of these men are not relivent I believe. Both will not average above 100 that's for sure

@Seekersupacoach

Thanks Carla

The_Kraken

Absolutely not relevant, spot on. Dont forget Hale as well, he'll play FWD but share in the ruck too. Hawks' ruck was a complete MESS last year with Ceglar (13 games) and McEvoy (12) in and out (think they played only 2/3 games together, otherwise one came in for the other and then shared with Hale). Avoid at all costs etc

I N Pieman

Great stuff Mickey. Certainly is cause for concern regarding Goddard. I don't think he played NAB 1. So that would only make 1 game. Could very well be another rookie defender bites the dust. Lets pray for another solid performance from Saad & Edwards. I really wanted another look at Geary. But he's best 22 for sure. The Saints only play one team that made the finals before Hawthorn in Round 10. So they have a draw against teams that won't murder them.

@t_woof
r2d2

Very worried about goddard Now ,, only way he may get a game is if fisher , Dempster miss games

Cezza93

Im not sure, Saints lack a monstering tall down back (in height) to compliment Bruce, Goddard provides that, be very interesting

Cezza93

Honestly how reliable is Geary?

Also with Lake and Frawley would Gibson's role change to a roaming defender? Could be an option.

Derek

Gibson as a lose man in defence = SC points. Surely other teams won’t let that happen again this year

Cezza93

What can they do though, Frawley and Lake hold down Key positions, Gibsons free to roam if they dont have a 3rd tall. Even if he's not doing it Birchall surely will. Which leads me to my next question. Wheres Birchall? haha.

derek

Birchell will play round 1. there was an article on the hawks website saying that he is ready to go.

CVT

Langford player of the year. <400 and will average close to 100. He won't lose his spot and he will never get tagged!

Thoughts?

Cezza93

I find it hard to believe they can have another 100+ avg, Gibson, Burgoyne, Hill, Birchall, Hodge, Mitchell, Roughead, Smith, Gunstan, Rioli, Roughead all average 90+ surely cannot fit another! They do have exceptional ball use though.

CVT

Exactly, but I’m sure he”ll average over 73. Especially when you consider they’ll be trying to give him as much midfield time as possible due to hodge, mitchell,Lewis coming to the end of their careers.

dannyyboyy

as a rule of thumb i never pick a second year player, and at that price, you have to be sure he will either go up so you can use him as a stepping stone, or become a premium. if he does none of these things he is just dead weight.

SCOTLAND THE BRAVE

Glad 2 see someone on the same page.

SCOTLAND THE BRAVE

CVT that is

CVT

He’s going to be a star. 3 out of his last 5 games last year he scored more than 110+. That sounds decent considering two of them were in the grand final and prelim.

SCOTLAND THE BRAVE

Any love for Langford? In ripping form following on from last season – big breakout possible and will go close to 100 and then some this Year? Yet never mentioned in reviews? Replaced Sewell so safe as.

Phil

Everyone do themselves a favour and take Goddard out of your teams now, he won't play Round 1. I'm also gonna put a mark through Anderson as well. Best 22? Sub risk? Role? Too many question marks for me. Not too sold on Saad and Lonie either, reckon they're 60 point players at best which might be enough most years but many a good Forward Rookie this year so pass. Worried about Geary too. I think most of us have enough mid priced defenders that if he smashes the first 2 games, a correction trade should be easy.

Moving onto the players I like from these teams. Newnes and Gibson locked in defence. Lewis 50/50

dannyyboyy

i think lewis will serve teams well if picked, but there are simply better mids that are a lot less risky

jordanandeddie

Montagna just ruled out for 3 weeks with knee injury… was happy with him for my Midprice POD! back to the drawing board.

Mike

Surely the rookie Mckenzie’s got to come into calculations with the two injuries with the Saints?
Any Saints fans have a comment on his chances?

TJM

Is it too much to have Birchell and Gibson in the same team?

@TylerCArmstrong

I wouldn't get birchall

@t_woof

Thought Newnes game was 'just a game', but he keeps getting big scores. Efficiency + tackles = good SC scores.

He's forced my hand now.

Marco_Polo94

I wonder if crouching still hasn't got him. Seems too much value to pass up!

BCHawks

Just wondering does anyone know how to add the likes of The AFL Footy Show and Shane Crawf to my league?

@TylerCArmstrong

Thoughts on Bontempelli this year? 100 average?

dannyyboyy

he is a gun in the making but players in their second year dont tend to go as well, so he is a risk for mine

Doc2Drej

Would people advise picking players like Jordan Lewis who will hold or appreciate in value to start with before picking up premiums who may fall in value? If so, which players may make cash at the start of the season and which midfield premiums may lose some money?

Thanks

Bako

Have I missed something??? Why is everyone jumping off Gary?

FootyFanatic

There is some uncertainty whether he will play round 1, he is still not back to 100%

DaBomb

Jacobs or Mumford?
Which three of Pendlebury/Selwood/Rockliff/Fyfe/Ablett?

JoeWoolcock

If you want reliability go Jacobs, and of those five mids atm I'd actually go Pendles, Rockliff and Fyfe (given concerns with Gaz).

Gregorovich

Who are the best defenders to suit a strategy of 3 400k+, 2 200-400k and 1 playing and 2 benched rookies?
Currently I have ???, Taylor, Newnes, ???, Jaksch, Saad (???, ???)
Advice and selection options would be much appreciated

Stickman

Have one spot left in my SC Draft League, if anyone is interested the league code is 712086. The draft is currently at 7:00 pm Sunday, but can changed to what ever time is suited.

Handbrake

Can afford any defender, who should I pick (already have Taylor, Newnes, Sheppard, Jaksch and Dalgleish as the rest of my starting back six)?

thesupacowch

My top 5 mids are Rockliff, Fyfe, Pendlebury, Neale and Hallahan. My other lines are quite strong, but should I be spending more on my midfield (have heard others have 500k plus players as their M6s!!!)

matt

need help picking one from lachie neale or jack stevens any help would be greatly appreciated.

Scotland

Neale – smashing it in a strong team that will take the majority of points, stevens in weaker team and may cop a tag also consider langford both massive breakout contenders.

FrenchY

What are your thoughts on geary as a defence option