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NAB Supercoach Significance Report – MELB v ESS

Published by Higgo on

higgo“Sixteen hours ago an American airplane dropped one bomb on Hiroshima and destroyed its usefulness to the enemy. … The Japanese began the war from the air at Pearl Harbor. They have been repaid many fold.”

American President Truman informs the nation that an atomic weapon has been detonated in Japan-

August 6, 1945

March 31, in AFL and SuperCoach terms, may well be remembered as the day that changed everything. Just four days out from Essendon’s Round One clash against Sydney, the AFL anti-doping tribunal will drop its bomb. One scenario is that 19 current players from the 2012 playing list will face bans in the early stages of the season. If this doomsday scenario eventuates, the implications for our SuperCoach teams are, dare I say, significant.

At this stage, Community, I do not have one Essendon player in my team. Conversely, I am contemplating starting with as many as five Melbourne players.

In this, the final round of NAB Challenge games, our analysis and planning must step up a gear. For this reason I shall be narrowing my research and game analysis to only those players that I see as potential inductees in our all important starting squad.

This is not a drill. D-Day is looming.

Absent Best 22 players;

Melbourne – Jeremy Howe, Bernie Vince, Cam Pederson, Jay Kennedy-Harris

Essendon – Too numerous to list

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 Melbourne Performances:

  • Salem, Christian (FWD $185,000) Salem is potentially vying for a place as high as F4 in many teams. In NAB 1 he was given a defensive role and we were concerned. In NAB 2 he was released off half back with 24 silky possessions for 131 points. Tonight he did enough. Tight defensive game yet he managed to find space on many occasions on the turn over. Can’t see him being considered for a vest given his obvious team role. Locked.
  • Tyson, Dom (MID $506,200) Will you entertain a breakout candidate in your midfield this year? M5? Coming off his first uninterrupted preseason his selection is a rather large The punt is whether or not he can boost his average by 15+ points per game and crack into the top bracket of scoring midfielders. He averaged 94 in 2014 with a tantalising 110 average in his last seven games. Big call to make here – potential breakout but risky.
  • Hogan, Jesse (FWD $130,400) To be honest, Jesse didn’t excite in NAB 1 or 2 and after tonight’s game I am in more doubt about starting Hogan in my team given the plethora of forward rookie options. He was mobile and a real presence yet his efforts are not the type to earn SuperCoach points. He has recently suffered a foot injury which adds further doubt. I am writing this review without access to points and as such will look into this further over the weekend. Interested to hear The Communities thoughts on this one.
  • Newton, Ben (MID $215,000) I’ve seen enough. If he is named he plays in my side.
  • vandenBerg, Aaron (MID $127,900)NAB 1 – 60 in a half, NAB 2 – subbed out early after a head knock. I was desperate to see some more from this mature age rookie. He didn’t disappoint. Surely he gets elevated off the rookie list and he plays round 1. If so, Lock.
  • Lumumba, Heritier (DEF/MID $417,000) Perhaps the most alluring performance of the game. Started in the middle on most occasions and played the defensive general who also pushed forward. I was impressed, however, I do expect Lumumba’s role to change to a more lock down role in the season proper. Given his past two NAB games have been against very weak opponents, his performances need to be put into some sort of perspective. In Round 1, “The Gift” will be playing his 200th game – significant! I could see him averaging 85+ this year. Current ownership at 13%. Decent claims.
  • Toumpas, Jimmy (MID/FWD $307,700While he has impressed in this year’s NAB he has been priced out of consideration. Not for me.
  • Garlett, Jeff ($259,200)Played a great game. I rate him highly but, like Toumpas can’t be selected due to his price.

Essendon Performances:

  • James Gwilt (DEF, $388,900) Another very solid defensive performance. Gwilt has averaged only 15 games per year over past last four seasons, suffering from hamstring and knee injuries. Massive point of difference owned by just 0.63% of coaches. If Essendon players face match bans, could it be a calculated risk? Not for me.
  • Brendon Goddard (MID/FWD, $548,800) Just not seeing enough from Goddard to justify the spend. He he has been heavily influenced by the compromised team structure and while I do expect him to improve during the season proper, in my opinion he comes in at full price and is very likely to undergo a drop in value prior to the bye rounds. No.
  • Cooney, Adam (MID/FWD $433,900) Cooney averaged 94 in his first eight games of 2014. He seems to be running well and with a full squad around him, he could pinch hit at 15 points above his average in your forward line in the lead up to the byes. It is a big if at that price. No.
  • Dalgleish, Lauchlan (DEF, $145,100) Ran the length of the ground to kick a sensational goal. Backed up an excellent NAB 2 with another classy performance giving us perhaps one of the few cheap defensive options. If players face multiple game bans, he could be a valid option. Currently only in 0.7% of teams.
  • Shaun Edwards (DEF, $123,900) Played deep forward and showed enough against some good defenders to tells us that he will get games this year. A good option if best 22 is compromised.

In summary

  • Essendon defensive rookies could save our structures if players miss multiple games as a result of the upcoming decision on March 31.
  • I am concerned that this season will see many very one sided games. The Dogs, The Saints and after tonight, The Dees are looking a long way off the pace.
  • Newton, vandenBerg (if elevated) and Salem are looking like locks.
  • Lumumba’s preseason form is hard to deny.

Over to you community – what significance did you extract from the game?

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@TylerCArmstrong

3 highest averaging forwards this year apart from Gray?

jimmpooooo

Dusty, Bartel, Swan, Deledio, Franklin.
Top 5 for me.

@TylerCArmstrong

I have Martin and Swan, just tossing up between Deledio and Bartel atm

jimmpooooo

Not sure about Bartel. SJ comes back to MIDS, Bartel off halfback, or playing FWD.
He might get then occasional roll through, but if you want more consistent peformances – Lids.

He will give you 80+ each week, if fit, and will get more time in the mids, along with Dusty

@TylerCArmstrong

Also considering Zorko, what are your thoughts on him?

jimmpooooo

If he can keep his consistency up like Dusty (who in my opinion looks like he will be the top averaging forward by a good 5 points) He will be a brilliant POD. He will go un-noticed with Beams, Rockliff, Rich (off halfback too), Redden and Aish flying around + add Hanley into the mix he could go big more often then 2014.
My problem is if he can find the ball with all those guns around.
Average this season IMO: 90-100.
He'll give you a ride through tough… and sadly bad times. He can go missing.

Jason

Bartel will be on the ball. SJ more forward due to foot injury and difficulty in getting up for games. Bartel will be huge this year

vcloophole

Just my 2 cents, but I think Jimmy will pick up extra midfield minutes *compared to last year*. I believe Stevie J will spend more time up forward, and also there is the void left by contested ball best Allen Christensen. Jimmy accumulates the pill rapidly when he spends ANY time on the ball, so I expect his higher scoring to continue

@milesdeutscher

Bartel in my opinion. Preseason form too hard to deny.

Jayden

Why are people underestimating Bartel he averaged 100 last year and played mostly fwd/back

vcloophole

This

Leighroy

Swan, Martin, lids. If I had to pick my season ending forward line now would prob go grey, swan, Martin, lids, Goddard and a ruck forward swing. That way all players are dpp and scoring isn’t bad either

Craig

1: Gray (sorry, but should be the best forward)
2: Dusty
3: Buddy
4: Bennell
5: Deledio
6: Bartel
7: Zorko
8: Boomer

Jayden

Disagree that Bennell will average more than Bartel/boomer/deledio

And not so sold on buddy think he will be top 8 maybe even top 5 but not too 3

shezza

Swan will be in top percentile of forwards as well. Put it this way, if he racks up 25+ touches against WBD tomorrow, you will all be trying to fit him in

Creep

No love for B Goddard ?

Craig

Depends on Essendon, on a full strength team yes, if their players get banned, probably not

Craig

think the kids at auskick would will be able to rack up 25+ touches against the doggies

BCHawks

Salem is staying in my team will play and is cheap expect him to average 75 hopefully.
I am starting to consider lumumba but will probable not take the risk.

Leighroy

Salem = lock

Rodney Eade

lumumba newton and salem = locks

@TylerCArmstrong

agreed

jimmpooooo

Best 22 Supercoach teams too.
Newton I'm starting to have my doubts.

@TylerCArmstrong

Although yeah, not 100% sure on Newton. Is he better than Cripps? Is it ok to have both? Or are they both too much?

jimmpooooo

I've gone VB, Cripps, Newton as my 3 rookie mids. Cripps wont be given the vest – He has looked very good in his other NAB games.
Jed Anderson will be given the vest a few times if he does make the star studded lineup.

@TylerCArmstrong

Having Van Berlo, Newton and Cripps is too much.

jimmpooooo

Not sure. I've got 4 premos over 600k (Rocky, Ablett, Lewis, Sidey) Then Parker.
I'm only watching –
Natanui, Rocky, Sidey, VB, Cripps, Swan, Lids, Martin, Gray, Ibbo and KK.

@milesdeutscher

Im not sure who's better out of the two, but having both is fine. Their prices are perfect and are easily justifiable with their scores.

Marco_Polo94

I have cripps and newton starting too.

shezza

No to Newton for me. Taking Dumont instead and has allowed me to get Clancee Pearce in def instead of a Goddard or Brown type

Leighroy

I’ve got Salem, Newton and vandenberg. Not sure lumumba is a lock. Only averaged over 80 once in 10 years and went at 87% disposal effinency. Can’t see him doing that in the season proper and with bernie vince to come back won’t be in as many centre bounces as he was tonight. In his favour doesn’t miss many games and is at a new club

Tyler

Hogan still worth keeping? I'm thinking that there are much better fwd rooks than him right now

@TylerCArmstrong

Idk it's tough. Especially now that he has no more pre season games to judge him on. He hasn't been very convincing…

jimmpooooo

Salem or Steele or Honey Church.
Salem looks more convincing, and your opponent will have him too, so you don't have to possibly worry about him going dud every now and then,

@TylerCArmstrong

salem

sam siddall

Js is key with him

@t_woof

Agree with Sam.

Hogan has good job security. Though probably not going to score big enough to justify as a starter. But guaranteed bench cover.

Jayden

Only as a F7/8 maybe you could get away with him being F6
I think with how good his job security is then he should be in there just don’t expect to make any quick cash off him he will be a slow-burner

The Superest Coach

I had Hogan and swapped to Clark, can’t have both IMO and Clark will get ruck time!!!

Mike

Keep if you need a guaranteed player, they need to put games into him, but will only average 50 imo. Currently being dumped by all and sundry.

@RagingBulls34

Lumumba can get screwed. No way is he making my team.

vcloophole

Haha love it

Dan

Thoughts on my team? Any feedback would be apprecited..
D: Simpson, Shaw, Newnes, Langdon, Edwards, Goddard (Viojo-Rainbow, Saad)
M: Pendlebury, Kennedy, Lewis, Crouch, Judd, van Berlo, Newton, Boekhorst (Anderson, Heeney, Freeman)
R: Jacobs, Naitanui (Smith)
F: Gray, Goddard, Swan, Salem, Clark, Daniel (Hogan, Krakoer)
TIA guys

sam siddall

If thats zac smith on ur bench at r3 u are wasting alot of cash

Sean

Hey guys great article peter,
I was just wondering weather neale is worth it
He averaged over a ton for the last half a dozen games he played last season and is looking good now
Thoughts??

Leighroy

If GAJ doesn’t start the season which is looking likely will consider neale as his replacement. Not as a keeper but more a quick cash grab. If Garry comes in say round 2 or 3.Averages 120 he will drop say $50-$60k by say round 5. Say neale increases his price by $50-60k you make the straight swap by keeping enough in your cap to do so from the start. Therefore you have made around 100k very early in the season. That’s my theory anyway

sam siddall

Asking 4 alot there

jimmpooooo

3 Defenders under 200k that will get consistent 60s?

The Superest Coach

Hamling at the doggies will ave 60+ and is also good POD

ben

any rookie defender named round 1 won't be a POD, everyone will jump on like a fat kid on a smartie

shezza

Im putting in Jordan Kelly from WBD. I know he needs to get elevated off the rookie list but he can play back or on ball or could even be the sub. He could be this year’s Dean Terlich whereby he doesn’t play round one but gets games

tom

Thoughts?

DEF- simpson, shaw, hibberd, newnes, goodes/geary, goddard (hamling, saad)

MID- Pendles, fyfe, beams, JPK, Griffen, newton, van berlo, cripps (heeney, vandenberg, ellis-yolmen)

RUC- Mumford, Bellchambers (brooksby)

FWD- Gray, Martin, Swan, Salem, Clarke, Hogan (krakouer, lambert)

20k left

jimmpooooo

TBC, Hogan, Goddard, Hibberd = NO.

nathan

Why no to hibberd?

sean

Selwood or Beams?

Dee

Selwood…

@t_woof

I'd lean Selwood, though both valid selections.

Select the one that best fits your bye strategy.

Beams does have the first bye, perhaps make him an upgrade target for Round 12 trades.

Marco_Polo94

Can't go wrong

Beast

Beams

throttlefinger

Pros and Cons go either way, Sean. Think the edge goes to Selwood…top 4 team so more points to take.

Sam

Geelong a top 4 team?

throttlefinger

Excellent inferential skills, Sam.

Mike

Not imo.
Hawks, Swans, Port, North?

Jonesy

Lumumba 140, Goddard 99, Grimes 98, vandenBerg 91, Salem 84, Newton 65, Hogan 52 and Langford 29

Doc2Drej

Have cash for any defender, want to know who to choose please

Jayden

Simpson, Burgoyne, Gibson would be my picks

sam siddall

Simpson by mile others will miss games

shezza

Agreed Sam. Carl have Docherty and Buckley and Everitt to play defensive, sweeper roles which allows Simpson to play wing/extra midfield

Bako

Who do you suggest we swap in for Hogan at f6 mate?

Marco_Polo94

Won't have a concrete answer until teams are announced for round 1 pal

GJG

Does a D1-3 of Taylor, Newnes, Lumumba sound solid enough?

jimmpooooo

No, Not really,

Marco_Polo94

Risky

Omen

Nope. But I haven’t seen any backline that looks “solid enough”.

jordanandeddie

Lots of talk here about potential forwards with Salem having another solid game and doubts over whether value can be gotten out of Goddard.
So I'm interested about peoples thoughts of Michael Walters as a D.4 option? Scored very well when returning from injury last year and always wracks up the tackles. He's currently in my team.
Cheers!

@t_woof

Sick of sifting through 'Rate My Teams' to get to article comments.

Omen

Sick of people whinging about rate my team posts in article comments. Just scroll down and move on.

The Ranger

Bad Omen!

@t_woof

People need to be educated Omen!

vcloophole

Agreed Woof. VERY annoying when a thread gets hijacked/spammed by 'rate my team' posts!

Mike

+1

@t_woof

Agree with Higgo's assessment.

Hogan is only a bench option. Don't think we can afford to start him now.

Dee

Definitely….

throttlefinger

Enough forward rooks so you don't have to have $130K on the bench. He looks underwhelming. But has the job security. Only reason I would slot him in.

The Ranger

Salem and Clark are locked in F4 and F5 at the moment.
Hogan looks like a downgrade option at best.

@t_woof

Throttle – Looking at starting Clark, Salem, Lambert, which only leaves Hogan, Lamb & Daniel. Have my doubts about Steele getting early games. So thinking the extra 13K for Hogan over Lamb isn't a bad option…..Extra 13K for job security.

The Ranger – Looking at the same F4 and F5 combo. Hogan won't be a downgrade option as he'll play from Round 1 onwards.

throttlefinger

Not a bad option, I know. Not a great one. Hoping someone else steps up. Daniel will be fine. Lamb or Steele will come in later.

With the back line issues, having an extra $13K may not be an option. We shall see.

Marco_Polo94

Tyson is very tempting. Not sure i can fit him in going to M5 tho… I think he would be a great selection if you can fit him into your structures.

Jayden

I’d be scared to select him as I can see him being tagged more this year so might not be able to handle it

Dee

What's everyone's ruck set up? Feed back on mine would be much appreciated….
Rucks: S. Martin, N. Natanui. (T. Read)

Roksta

I have Sauce and Goldy, I reckon yours is quite risky with Leuenberger taking points off Martin and NicNats back niggles. Try something like Mumford and Lucent for a potentially high scoring point of difference duo

Jayden

Mummy and goldy but thinking of dropping one to maric for the cash

Dee

Lucent?

Watto

Must mean Lycett surely?

Shezza

Mummy and Nic Nat (for this week…no doubt I will change these combo's another 20 times before round one!!)

Dee

thanks guys….

The Ranger

I'm going for one solid pick and one risk.
Maric and Nicholas for me.

Beast

Mummy – Niknat.

@t_woof

I'm forever changing it, but right now it's Goldstein and Naitanui.

Roksta

With Hogan’s poor for this preseason I reckon if Cam McCarthy can perform again in the nab 3 he could for a solid F4,F5 and F6 combination with Salem and Clark

The Ranger

I think you might be right there Rocksta.
Hard to find the cash for him tho.

Booma

Like McCarthy but is awkward price at $210K.

sam siddall

If he was 170k forsure

Jayden

Thoughts on tom McDonald scores of 99/108/96 in the preseason at 380k

X

Do people reckon Lumumba can end up being a top 5 defender come seasons end or do people think he will be given a defensive role to play for the dees or possibly have a defensive forward playing on him

Mike

You're somehow associating/connecting SC with Hiroshima? Are you a complete imbecile?

Nuggety

Hi Mike think you meant to post in the I take myself too seriously thread..

Mike

No not at all Nuggety.Just think there are some lines we shouldn’t cross. Using a tragedy that literally wiped out generations and continues to impact on lives today shouldn’t be used as some sort of smart-arsed byline for a sports writeup.
Think: If it was your family and future generations of your family that was impacted, how would toy feel?

Mike

No not at all Nuggety.Just think there are some lines we shouldn’t cross. Using a tragedy that literally wiped out generations and continues to impact on lives today shouldn’t be used as some sort of smart-arsed byline for a sports writeup.
Think: If it was your family and future generations of your family that was impacted, how would you feel?

I N Pieman

Haven’t had Jesse Hogan in my team at any point of the preseason. Last night reaffirmed why. Dropping the pill when it’s delivered lace out with no one near him was unacceptable. Plenty of better scoring options.

vcloophole

Agreed great man. I've seen enough…

Soa

Anyone suggesting Newton or Vandenberg are ignorant to the Melbourne selection situation. Both are far from certain to play round 1 and if they do, are more than likely to be under serious selection pressure by round 2. Vince, Howe, Kent and Kennedy-Harris will all play VFL next week and, all going well, be back in the side by at least round 2. Kent id say is a round 1 certainty and I'd be playing Vince and Howe as well. Gawn will probably start as well and can't see the Dees going with Hogan, Frost, Gawn, Watts and Vandenberg in the same forward line. Matt Jones, Toumpas, Bail, Newton and Vandenberg are the players in danger of making way. Stretch and Brayshaw will put some serious selection heat on as well fairly early and McKenzie could very easily play as an Ablett minder too.

Possible Melbourne Round 1 side:

B: Jetta, Dunn, T.McDonald
HB: Salem, Garland, Grimes
C: Lumumba, N.Jones, Cross
HF: Watts, Frost, Kent
F: Garlett, Hogan, Gawn
FOLL: Jamar, Tyson, Viney
I/C: Vince, Toumpas, Kennedy-Harris
SUB: Howe
EM: McKenzie, Vandenberg, Newton.

vcloophole

Great post Soa. It's very useful to see 'best 22's' and what that means to 'locked(!)' rookies…
Agree McKenzie might very well play if Ablett plays

Ryan

not bad mate, i like it haha, of course dawes is out round 1m but i believe its either frost or gawn out of the team to make way for vandenberg, after his game last night and in the first nab game against freo, he will be in the side for sure, he attacks well, uses the ball well and defends well. Newton 50% 50 % chance depending on vince and howe, if they are ready for round one.

but you know we dont need another extremely tall player in, lets say gawn is out, then jamar will ruck, frost will help out when jamar is off, plus hogan will ruck in the fwd if he has to if jamar is resting on the bench, sometimes cross will come up and punch the ball as he do when we have a less chance of winning the hitout that way we have Vandenberg, which gives us more flexibility, can run fast and use ball well,

Soapy

I think the problem is that with Smith and Nicholls you just don't get any reprieve in the sense that they are two genuine ruckmen and I think they will thrash Frost in the ruck and give GC too much ascendancy for that period of the game. With Dawes not hitting up, Hogan may have to play up near the fifty as well and then you will want Gawn/Jamar deep competing at the top of the square. Just creates a problem for how Vandenberg will fit in structurally. Newton probably plays Round 1 but his hold on a spot in the side is extremely shake, particularly in comparison to a Van Berlo. Personally think there is a lot of fools gold in the midfield rookies – not many with long term JS.

tigers2015

when will laverde get a game? haven't seen him the whole nab challenge

FootyFanatic

He played last night …

Redgumwon

Hey Jock young Viney has a new nickname. You can start calling him Apples after last nights game. Apples as in Apple Turnovers. He cost the Dees a couple of valuable goals with his turnovers

portrule3333

….