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The Bruyn Manoeuvre – The Defence Dilemma

Published by Jock on

John Bruyn - The DimmawitsHola mis amigos,

Welcome to this edition of the Bruyn Manoeuvre – it’s a long one!

This week I climbed Machu Picchu.

Not in a figurative, ‘I managed to pick a team with $0 left in my salary cap’ kind of way, but in the ‘I’m actually in Peru’ kinda way. With about 40km’s off walking from start to finish I had plenty of time to think about Supercoach!

Last time we met I said that our rucks would again be the year’s defining selection choice. I still think that’s true. With that said however defence continues to be this year’s biggest point of discussion. For many coaches it represents their own Machu Picchu.

Whoa, deep yeah?

As I write this article I am still unsure how I’m gonna structure my own defence. So today I’m gonna run some numbers which hopefully we can both find useful.

Now, this isn’t going to be easy

What you will read below will be full assumptions, many of which you may disagree with. For each structure I will select defenders I think fit the goals of each strategy. I’ll try to estimate their points scored, include a best and worst case scenario, and quantify the dollar value of this defence at the first bye round (post round 10).

Righto. How should we structure our defences?

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The Premium Heavy Defence

The first structure I’ll highlight is the D1-D5 premium defence. Coaches running this structure are attempting to counteract the dearth of rookie defence options by starting five defenders they think will finish top ten. The example given assumes an on field rookie selection in round 1 – this is by no means certain at this point!

Bruyn3

Pros: Consistent scoring, Saves trades, Potentially lowest risk

Cons: Expensive, Generates little to no value, Playing rookie at D6

My proposed structure:

5 x $450k+ defenders
1 x on field rookie

Points scoring scenarios:

Best case: 5 x 93.5 (average 1-10 in 2014). 1 x 71 (Tom Langdon 2014)

Worst case: 5 x 89.7 av (6-15), 1 x 55 (Darcy Gardiner 2014)

Total value pre-round 1: $2,514,500 ($419,083 pp)

Total value post-round 10: $2,692,500 Best case, $2,517,500 Worst case

Points scored: 5,385 Best case, 5,035 Worst case

$ per points: $467 Best case, $499 Worst case 

Variations on this structure may include higher priced D1 and/or D2’s and perhaps even a mid priced D6. The above structure is by no means ‘the best’ but arguably balances the higher spend on D1-D5 by having a rookie at D6.


Mid Priced Madness

This strategy is all about value. These coaches believe that over spending in defence is for chums. Without obvious 95+ averaging players we should attempt to find 80-90 averaging players who are priced approximately at the 60-75 mark.

Bruyn4

Pros: Attractive $:pts ratio (in theory), Appreciates in value (in theory), High scoring potential, Allows increased spend elsewhere in team, No on-field rookie

Cons: Risky, Large downside, Volatile scoring, Very difficult to implement, Can burn trades, No premium ‘security’

My proposed structure:

3 x $400-$450k defenders
1 x $350-$400k
2 x $250-$350k

Points scoring scenarios:

Best case: 2 x 93.5 (average 1-10 in 2014). 1 x 88.7 (11-15), 3 x 85.4 (16-25)

Worst case: 1 x 85.4 (16-25), 3 x 75.3 (41-60), 2 x 61 (81-100)

Total value pre-round 1: $2,307,600 ($384,600 pp)

Total value post- round 10: $2,659,500 Best case, $2,166,500 Worst case

Points scored: 5,319 Best case, 4,333 Worst case

$ per points: $433 Best case, $533 Worst case

This is the hardest structure to generalise for the purposes of this article. Even more so than the other examples, there are countless versions of this structure coaches might adopt. Generally this structure includes no proven premiums or rookie selections. Popular variations to my example might include a premium D1 and a lower priced D5 and/or D6.


Guns n Rookies

The classic Supercoach structure. Relies on the coach picking four top ten (ideally top 5 of course) defenders and two on field rookies to score capably. Coaches are relying on their highly priced D1-D2’s to ‘subsidise’ the added on field rookie.

Bruyn2

Pros: Consistent high scoring, Balanced spending (D1,D2 vs D5,D6)

Cons: Expensive, Relies on ‘D1,D2 types’, added on-field rookie

My proposed structure:

2 x $500k+ defenders
2 x $$450k+
2 x on field rookies

Points scoring scenarios:

Best case: 2 x 96.2 (average 1-5 in 2014). 2 x 90.8 (6-10), 2 x 68 ( av KK and Langdon)

Worst case: 4 x 89.7 (6-15), 2 x 55

Total value round 1: $2,369,800 ($394,967 pp)

Total value post- round 10: $2,550,000 Best case, $2,344,000 Worst case

Points scored: 5,100 Best case, 4,688 Worst case

$ per points: $465 Best case, $506 Worst case

The principle characteristic of this strategy is the inclusion of the most expensive players on the line alongside on field rookies. The selection of Malceski and Simpson is important because these two players have a scoring history (or patches) which, if replicated in 2015, could place them as the clear 1-2 defenders.


Hybrid

If you like to go a bit more unique this strategy is for you. Taking the best of each of the above approaches, coaches here are also exposed to the worst! In a way this strategy is aiming to simply pick the 6 best choices on a $-to-points basis.

Bruyn1

Pros: Attractive $:pts ratio, Good scoring potential for lowest spend, Appreciates most in value, Flexible

Cons: Risky, Difficult to achieve, Potential to burn trades, Large downside.

My proposed structure:

1 x $450k+ defender
3 x $300-$450k
1 x $200-$300k
1 x on field rookie

Points scoring scenarios:

Best case: 1 x 96.2 (average 1-5 in 2014), 2 x 90.8 (6-10), 2 x 85.4 (16-25), 1 x 71 (Tom Langdon 2014)

Worst case: 1 x 90.8 (average 6-10 in 2014), 1 x 85.4 (16-25), 1 x 75.3 (41-60), 2 x 61 (81-100), 1 x 55 (Darcy Gardiner 2014)

Total value round 1: $2,154,000 ($359,000 pp)

Total value post- round 10: $2,598,000 Best case, $2,142,500 Worst case

Points scored: 5,196 Best case, 4,285 Worst case

$ per points: $415 Best case, $503 Worst case

Another structure that is very difficult to generalise for the sake of this analysis. In essence coaches here are attempting to select ‘the best’ premiums, mid pricers and rookies – and fitting them in one structure. This structure offers the lowest dollar outlay but, if all goes well, can score like a premium defence (in theory).


Before we discuss these results a word of advice.

Don’t get too hung up on the players I’ve chosen to represent a structure, or the scores I’ve assumed they will achieve. Instead look at the role players play within the analysis and try to translate them into choices you’ve made.

Clearly many of my choices arbitrary. Furthermore there is no way to introduce the notion of trading into this analysis – obviously a coach is not going to hold a failing rookie until round 10. Choose the elements of the analysis that best assist your thinking and tweak the numbers to form your own view if necessary.

Results:

Rd1 $ ValueRd10 $ Best CaseRd 10 $ Worst CasePoints Best CasePoints Worst Case
Premium Heavy$2,514,500 $2,692,500$2,517,5005,3855,035
Mid Priced$2,307,600$2,659,500$2,166,5005,3194,333
Guns & Rookies$2,369,800$2,550,000$2,344,0005,1004,688
Hybrid$2,154,000$2,598,000$2,142,5005,1964,285

Value RangePts per $ RangeComment
Premium Heavy+$3,000 - $178,000$467 - $499Get what you pay for
Mid Priced-$141,100 - $351,900$433 - $533High risk, high reward
Guns n Rookies-$25,800 - $180,200$465 - $506Not the year without obvious gun options
Hybrid-$11,500 - $444,000$415 - $503Looks good, very hard to successfully implement

What’s clear is that no structure wins on all counts. Sure, the Premium heavy defence looks great points and risk wise but it is significantly more expensive. Appears a good option though this year. Will it win you money though?

It’s interesting that the Guns n Rookies structure doesn’t appear too attractive. I think this has a lot to do with the fact that we don’t have a large expected points gap between, say, D1 and D10 this year. What’s more there doesn’t seem to be any high scoring rookies. In another year this result might look different (and of course my numbers are only guesses!).

The mid price option has shown its true colours. High points scoring potential but with huge potential downside. If you are running this structure be aware what it could mean if things go wrong. Some rapid trading early on will probably be required.

If I was to pick a winner it would be the hybrid structure. Once more I will remind you not to get too fixated on this result – the numbers are far from accurate – but here we have structure that offers mid range points scoring with low level spending and high end value generation alongside limited downside risk. Sounds great right?! Don’t forget, EVERYTHING relies on correct selections. In reality my analysis probably undercooks the down side so remain sceptical.

Using these numbers, take a look at your side and ask yourself – “Does my chosen structure align with my intended goals?”. Let us know below.

Cheers

JB

Note: I have used a magic number of 5000 post-round 10.

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bd2

Absolutely rip snorta of an article! Hats off to you Mr. Bruyn

Ultimate Wingman

Hey Johnny B.

Think this defence is hybrid. Looking to generate some cash for upgrades to at least 3 defenders. Any Comments?

H.Shaw, Newnes, Higgins, Rampe, Whitecross, Goddard (Edwards, Maynard).

Brillsy21

Looks very good although WhiteX may not be ready for round 1

Ultimate Wingman

Agreed Brillsy21 re Whitecross. Rookie bench and DPP will help plug the gap.

wazza

whos brillsy?

Brillsy21

Great article mate!
NEED SOME HELP WITH MY TEAM
Salary Cap: $26,400
DEF: H. Shaw, M. Hibberd, S. Fisher, J. Newnes, B. Goodes, H. Goddard (A. Saad, S. Edwards)
MID: S. Pendelbury, N. Fyfe, J. Selwood, J. Kennedy, R. Griffen, L. Neale, B. Newton, I. Heeney (B. Boekhorst, N. Freeman, J. Steele)
RUCK: N. Naitanui, M. Leunburger (T. Read)
FWD: D. Martin, B. Goddard, D. Swan, C. Salem, M. Clark, J. Hogan (C. Daniel, K. Lambert)

I will only keep Goodes and Hibberd if they are playing round 1, also may trade in WhiteX if fit and firing!
Am unsure about rucks!!!
Thanks

Ultimate Wingman

Risk in ruck with Burger. Maybe trade down a premium D2 for Goldy or Maric?

Brillsy21

Who should I trade hibberd down to?

Ultimate Wingman

Maybe Geary or Henderson?

Brillsy21

What about Bewick?
Because if Geary I would have 4 sainters in the backlines

Derek

Nothing wrong with that, they will see plenty more of the ball than the saints forward line

BundyBear

LOL

Ryza

Josh Gibson

Soul87

Not sure about Hibberd or Fisher could change to a more reliable option

Brillsy21

Like who?

Ultimate Wingman

Adcock or Berwick are reasonable options. Taylor Hunt ok also.

Josh

Im going with

H. Shaw, J. Newnes, Kolodashnij, Sheppard/Mayes, Ibbotson, MacMillan.

Thoughts?

Brillsy21

Very risky but could definitely work out, may I suggest Bewick as well if he is playing of the half back flank and form is good enough?

@RagingBulls34

If people got mid price madness they will most likely burn trades. Due to this, they probably won't be able to upgrade to Ablett/Gray in the first 6 rounds. Defence should be aimed for a set and forget for the first seven rounds (hybrid), so we can work on upgrading our other lines (such as trying to upgrade forward after having 3 on field rookies).

sam siddall

Agree totally

@TylerCA16

Agreed. I will only have 1 mid pricer if any in def.

Jayden

What are we classing as a midpricer in defence this year (200-400k)?

PJ8

Yes, i only have one player in this price range

@TylerCA16

Yeah that's how i define a mid pricer

JackdeBrewMasta

This is my backline as of present:
Simpson, Shaw, Hibberd, Newnes, Higgins, Goddard
I'd say its a bit of a hybrid.
I have a bit of cash to spare so im pretty flexible in terms of what premiums i pick.
Any suggestions?

Ben Bretel

mate same as mine

Marco_Polo94

Exactly the article the community needed. Hats off to you sir.

sam siddall

Nice work jb d1 to d5 prems and a rook all the way 4 me I have newes d5 atm

KJU FC

Im going with

Simpson, Shaw, Hibberd, Newnes, Geary, Goddard.

with this you get the premiums while also getting cash generation with geary.

Thoughts?

Ben Bretel

love it

@TylerCA16

Solid. IMO though I prefer Langdon and Ibbo over Geary currently

Jayden

Bloody great article Johnny gonna have a good look at my defence tonight

My defence dosnt exactly fit into one of these strategies I think
I’ve got
1 x 500k+ DEF
2 x 450-500k DEF
2 x 400-450k DEF
1 x rookie on field DEF
What do you think

Joey

Can someone help with this team?

DEF: Shaun Burgoyne, Dane Rampe, Jack Newnes, Steven May, Shaun Edwards, Hugh Goddard (Saad, Whitecross)

MID: Ablett, Sidebottom, Luke Parker, Ryan Griffen, Brad Crouch, Lachie Neale, Cockatoo, Heeney (Vandenberg, Freeman, Lambert)

RUC: Goldstien, Naitanui (Read)

FWD: Gray, Dustin Martin, Swan, Salem, Clark, Hogan (Caleb Daniel, Laverde)

$108,700 left

Jess

Hey all,
Going with a “hybrid” theory here. Would love some feedback.

Shaw, Gibson, Newnes, Lumumba, Taylor Hunt, Goddard (WhiteX, Saad)

Benno

Burgoyne, Yarran, Newnes, Haynes, Ibbotson, Macmillan (Goddard, Saad)

Thoughts?

@TylerCA16

Yarran = Burnman

Tom

Great article, still very unsure of what structure I want to run with and will probably come down to form given the lack of great picks either as rookies or premos. Given the value for rookies in fwd line, thinking of running with an expensive backline atm:
Shaw, Hibberd, Johnson, Newnes, Ibbotson, Goddard

Thoughts?

Redgumwon

The backs aren't that flash and I have a feeling some of the premium defenders may come down in price. The game is won in the guts. So we may be better to load up in the middle and rucks. Just my thoughts at the moment. I'm thinking of going with Shaw, Kelly, Newnes, Smedts, Brown (Coll) Edwards, Goddard (St Kil) Saad (GC)

Millsy

On the money with that one. Why waste money on defence if the are not scoring big

bloke

Good call. Newnes D1, the rest sub 400k for mine.

@TylerCA16

That's a solid defence. Kind of similar to mine in terms of structure.

Soul87

Thoghts Big Men

Simpson Shaw Newnes Henderson Whitecross Goddard

Tom

Seems a pretty safe structure, I would be worried about whitex though: was tender in his VFL outing and given the Hawks running back and wingman options I think they might take a cautious approach with him.

Spifflicator

I am currently running a backline with Higgins, Jaksch and McMillan with 3 rookies. God help me, but I am hoping for one keeper from those three but if not, may they make me some half decent money to be used as stepping stones come the bye.

Pauly Walnuts

Mate, don't do it , you won't have any keepers out of that lot , IMO seriously !

Millsy

That is the way to go

@TylerCA16

No offence. But in my opinion, in the nicest way possible, that is the worst idea I have ever heard! 😀 lol

Ethan

absolute no if higgins is your D1
wont get you scores or make you money quickly

Spifflicators

He’s D 3 atm behind Smith and Newnes. So 2 keepers plus the 3 amigos. Would like them all to gain $70k or more which along with a rookie downgrade should allow me to trade them into the right def premos around bye time.

Otherwise I dump my M6 for rookie and spend it here.

@TylerCA16

Don't downgrade your m6.

Matt

No sure where to put/ask this but Fantasy Freako released a NAB Challenge prospectus today and the first place is look for a SC Equivalant was here. But alas I can’t find one. Any of the community know where to find this info? Cheers

Jordan

I know people are jumping off Gary, but at this point in time, he will stay in my team until I hear more information. Thoughts on my team?

DEF: Smith, Shaw, Gibson, Newnes, Jaksch, Edwards, Goddard, Saad
MID: Ablett, Pendles, Selwood, Priddis, Griffin, Newton, Boekhorst, Laverde, Ellis-Yolmen, Steele, Kraouer
RUC: Mumford, Nic Nat, Read
FWD: Gray, Martin, Swan, Clark, Hogan, Lambert, Daniel, Lonie

I feel Jaksch is weak, but cannot afford anyone better. Any suggestions?

Tom

He is a mate from school but I won't have him in my team mainly for js and output being a bit iffy. Would rather downgrade a premo and put in swallow who seems to be great value and should give you that 100k to get a bewick or ibbotson.

kevwal

Terrific article Mr Bruyn. Was Machu Picchu insprirational, uplifting,wow, all of the above? This article highlights the dilemma when no standout premo defenders are around. Changing DPP players to KPPs has set the cat amongst the pigeons as well. Getting the defence right and having a plan to live without Gaz for the first few rounds will make or break supercoaches this year. Again, thanks for the write u[.

Rawkus11

I'm runnin with:
Shaw, Newnes, Higgins, ibbo, Geary, Goddard (Edwards, Saad)

What ya think?

Rawkus11

scrap that, just traded higgo to gibbo. Rest the same

@TylerCA16

Pretty good although I am not a fan of Gibson. Geary is too much of a risk for mine, Langdon seems like a better pick.

Conor

BACKS:
Malceski, N Simpson, K Shaw, H Newnes, J Ibbotson, G Saad, A Goddard, H Viojo-Rainbow, D
MIDFIELDERS:
Ablett, G Rockliff, T Fyfe, N Sloane, R Newton, B Cockatoo, N Anderson, J Ellis-Yolmen, C Heeney, I Boekhorst, B Lambert, K
RUCKS:
Jacobs, S Naitanui, N Read, T
FORWARDS:
Gray,R Martin, D Swan, D Salem, C Clark, M Hogan, J Steele, J Lamb, T

Thoughts?
33k in the bank

Redgumwon

Need to beef up the midfielders

@TylerCA16

Midfield is way too weak! Add 1 or 2 more premiums.

Sarah

I love it! I'm going with pretty much the exact same structure!!

RobDog

No one looking at Simon White?

Brillsy21

See how he does for the rest of the NAB challenge, not particularly consistent

Rayza Ray

WOMBAT likes him and if he likes him he's worth considering. He don't get much wrong this man.

jarrad

Currently have
Simpson, Burgoyne, Newnes, Lumumba, Higgins, Saad

Games played is more important to me than a players average. Picking players like Shaw, Hodge, Hibberd will guarantee headaches throughout the year. If i was to replace anyone in my back 6 it would be Lumumba, i did have Clancee in there but the whispers coming out he may be doing Crowleys lockdown roles spooked me.

@TylerCA16

good point. But I wouldn't pick Burgoyne.

Tom

Hey Community, first ever time posting, any suggestions or advice is welcomed
Bloody looking forward to this supercoach season kicking off! Am pretty settled with my team, although rookies are subject to change due to selections. My back line feels weak but I can't bring myself to bring in to many mid prices, what are peoples thoughts?
Defence: H Shaw, M Hibberd, J Newnes, G Ibbotson, N Brown, S Edwards, H Goddard, A Saad
Mids: G Ablett, S Pendlebury, JPK, P Dangerfield, R Griffin, B Newton, I Heeney, N Freeman, B Boekhorst, J Steele, K Lambert
Rucks: T Goldstein, N Natanui, M Cox
Fwds: B Deledio, B Goddard, D Martin, D Swan, M Clark, J Hogan, C Daniel, T Lamb

BomberSam

Brown should be upgraded. Consider going with one less forward premium. Lots of value and a good crop of rookies there, should be easy to strengthen later on. Downgrade Deledio, Goddard or Martin then upgrade Brown. Consider Hurn, Lumumba and Higgins, or a couple of PODs in Enright and James Kelly.

@lewiswgrant

I like it. Well balanced and very similar to what I am doing.

Cyril is Delicious

Fantastic article mate!

Would love any thought on my team, cheers community!

DEF: Shaw, Taylor, Newnes, Higgins, ibbo, H.Goddard (Vijo,Edwards)

MIDS: Ablett, Pendlebury, Fyfe, J.Selwood, Griffen, Newton, Boekhorst, Freeman (Vandenberg, Heeney, Krakouer)

RUCKS: Goldstein , Lycett (Read)

FWDS: Gray, B.Goddard, Swan, Salem, Clark, Hogan, (Lambert, Daniel)

Not sure what to do with Gary at this point, can’t seeing him going, but it will be the best thing to do, and pick him up when he dips in price, any options are welcome.

Also have $13,100 in the bank. Would love any thoughts, ideas, or opinions. Cheers community!

Derek

You have all the usual suspects in your team, nothing surprising. Show me something different!

Sarah

I haven't seen many teams with Lycett and Taylor!

BomberSam

I like to think of mine as a premium heavy defence, although they are not technically all premiums.

Shaw, Hibberd, Hurn, Newnes, Lumumba, Saad (Oxley, Goddard).

Unsure about Hurn, he might not push up the ground as much now that Mackenzie is injured and Glass retired. Thoughts?

@TylerCA16

I like Hurn this year. Underpriced and should average 90+. But that is a good point you make about the loss of both mckenzie and glass.

JoeWoolcock

Do you reckon he'll get tagged as much this year Tyler?

@TylerCA16

I want to use a hybrid like structure, but I don't know what mid pricer/s to pick. I have been considering Ibbo and Langdon the most but I'm unsure as to whether they will reach the 90 average mark I want my mid pricer to average.

BomberSam

They could pay off, but I feel it's too risky to have them both in a side. I feel that Langdon will have an inconsistent second season and average between 80-85. He will go big, but drop in the odd score below 60 too. Ibbotson has been a very inconsistent scorer throughout his career. Bear in mind that he has only averaged over 90 once in his 8 seasons (2013). I see him averaging around the 80 mark.

@TylerCA16

Yeah it's tough. If I am to pick a mid pricer I will only pick 1. Any other mid pricers you prefer?

BomberSam

What sort of price range are you talking? Really not many reliable mid-pricers on offer this season.

$400-$450k- Lumumba and Higgins. I am excited by Lumumba running through the middle and he has been good so far this pre-season. Higgins could be great value, but it's a big risk, classic burnman. Technically Newnes falls into this category also, I assume you have already selected him.

Sub $400k- Kristian Jaksch is definitely one to watch. Taylor Hunt, providing he doesn't tag at Richmond. Hasn't so far.

Trust your gut. I have gone to D5 with every pick over $400k.

@TylerCA16

Not sure on lumumba and higgins. Do you see them averaging 90 this year?

@TylerCA16

I can see Lumumba maybe reaching that mark but not Higgins.

BomberSam

I have a good feeling about Lumumba, he will thrive on the extra freedom he gets at Melbourne. I can see him pushing 90.

Always be cautious of Higgins. Depends what role he plays at North Melbourne. NAB cup might not be too reliable, but he looked good roving for the first 3 quarters, then heading forward and booting 3 in the last. We can't pick a player, especially Higgins, based on one 136 point game, but if he plays that role every week, the prospects are trouser-stretching. Watch him on Saturday against your Tigers, if he plays the same role, give him some thought.

Keith

Very nicely done, is a bit of a raffle though. To me, the proven players should take precedence with Newnes and Brown attached. the known unknowns if you like. Who dares may win. Keith (Courtesans)
Great info here all, congrats.

Rixk

Shaw,Newnes,Lumumba,Higgins,Ibbotson,Goddard. Would live some suggestions. I think this is a hybrid team

Marco_Polo94

Higgins and Lumumba are way too inconsistent for my liking, however both at new clubs so i could be wrong about them both.

Benjo

Great article Johnny!
I think my backline is a hybrid. Can you please give me your thoughts? I've got the cash to upgrade Sheppard. Cheers
Simpson, Kelly, Newnes, Shaw, Sheppard, Saad.

yurkins

closest team to mine

KJU FC

Going without the almighty at the moment

currently have 57k left

DEF- Simpson, Shaw, Hibberd, Newnes, Geary, Goddard (Edwards, Saad)

MID- Pendles, Fyfe, Beams, JPK, Griffen, Newton, Cripps, Heeney (boekhurst, vandenberg, ellis-yolmen)

RUC- Mumford, Bellchambers (brooksby)

FWD- Gray, Martin, Swan, Salem, Clarke, Hogan (krakouer, lambert)

Thoughts??

Marco_Polo94

Everyone is all of a sudden going hybrid ahaha. the best thing about this article is it's now a lot easier to say a "hybrid" defence rather than "i've got a bit of everything"!

Anyway my current defensive structure consists of Shaw (Lock), Yarran, Newnes (Lock), Ibbo, Goodes, Brown. Have toyed with Garland in there as well however not sure i have the plums. If Goodes is named he's a lock for me however I'm constantly shifting yarran and ibbo around. This is with 114k in the bank without Gaz, was kinda thinking i should leave a bit of cash to bring him in IF i don't start with him…. and that's a big bloody if. What do you reckon guys?

Phil

All my plans revolve around Gaz not being there Round 1 now so even if he's named I won't pick him. There has to be serious question marks around him now. At his price, it would just throw your structures completely out the window if you re commit to him 2 days before Round 1 (it's hard enough with ASADA!). I guess if you were to run with 1 of him or Rocky it could work without changing your structure but I'm taking Rocky either way.

Mozz

My defensive structure is:

Shaw, Kelly, Newnes, Goodes, Brown, Goddard (McIntosh, Saad)

Phil

A little different there Mozz, might work as long as there's 4 playing rookies (and Goodes). It will become more popular if ASADA suspend which will make Edwards and Dalgleish 2 more options. I never thought Nathan Brown would end up being anyone's D5!!!

tom

Lumumba or Higgins? Should I even bother with one of these two? if not who else? Im looking for a keeper

Phil

I'm warming to Lumumba more by the day….I've got to be honest he has never stepped foot into my team once but there is definitely some merit;
*He averaged 88 2 years ago which, if repeated, should get him top6 defenders for year.
*He averaged around 100 for the first six or so rounds last year, after that, who knows his heart might have already left.
*He is changing clubs. Based on Lekdogs ripping article on average players average 7 points more after changing clubs.
*Has played 2 good NAB games already. Points & Role.

As for Higgins, I was nervous picking him at 250k last year no way I'm picking him at 400k (I have a 300k policy at my club, anyone over that price must be viewed as a keeper)

Marco_Polo94

yeh i agree i wouldn't touch higgins. great points re the prince, but i'm just not sure he will be consistent enough. new team new role perhaps but gosh, as a collingwood supporter i couldn't stand his form last season. I much prefer a harry taylor type who will score much more consistently.

Simon

Jaksch or McMillan

Simon

Or even Alex sexton

Kev

Jaksch. McM best 22?

@TylerCA16

More articles need to be written on defence like this one John. Well done.

Patrick

Good article JB,

You may or may not agree with this but I think the top 25 (with the exception of the top 3 players) will have a standard deviation of 10 points per game, so doesn't really matter who you pick, as long as your team is balanced through the bye rounds!

Personally I am hybrid, but have looked for value in longevity, players who don't get injured or suspended, just want 6 def who I can rely on to play every game which allows me to save my trades for mids, rucks and fwds

Hazey

Yep me too… I just want blokes who will play every week to start with and the straight swap to a fallen premo. Remember what prices defenders fell to last year? People speak of Langdon etc having a bad game at 60pts, if I remember correctly Simpson has a bad patch last year too. All backs can be inconsistent I reckon.

qsz

Great article,
I feel like this year without the source of reliable round 1 playing rookies and the money risk factor that most premiums and mid pricers present, i believe that D5 should be reserved for a player in the 200-300K price bracket.
Interested to see who people think is the better choice, C.Pearce, Macmillian, S. White, Jaksch, or even Billie Smedts
For me I'm going with Jaksch seeing great value to be a stepping stone to a premium latter on once they become proven

Rick

Shaw, Newnes, Lumumba, Higgins, Ibbotson, Goddard

Would love some suggestions, I think this is a hybrid.

Kev

Looks alright. If you're strapped for cash elsewhere I'd look at dropping Higgins or The Prince for a cheaper option (Bewick, KK, Sheppard etc)

Donavan

I am a little stuck for a D6. I am looking for the best defender under $141,200 (other than Goddard, Edwards & Saad).

I am playing H.Goddard forward at this time to enable the Fwd/Def swing with Higgins.

Help please.

Derek

Why do you need def/fwd swing. It is very unlikely you will have to swing Higgins to the forward line. Stick Goddard in Def where he belongs

Donavan

Derek,

With so many rookies at both ends of the field, and thinking forward to the bye rounds, I think the flexibiliy of a fwd/def swing will likely save me a trade or 2 early in the year. For me rookies = risk. That said I think H.Goddard is less risk than most rookies.

SheHeAnd

What do you think of the players in defence between 200-300k that through club circumstance or just maturing with age could make the jump from being in and out of the sides to holding down a spot?

At like $290,000 or less I can't see them as anything more than expensive rookies. Even if these players don't have a breakout season and emerge as top 6-10 scorers in the backline, they'll have a healthy amount of cash to them when you want to trade and they will put up a score.

Rookies this year look to give us donuts on field and premiums in the defence aren't looking plentiful, however, picking these players who could make the best 22 and average between 70 – 90 is both cost effective and low risk. Using Bruyn's Hybrid structure, D1 can be a safe option, D2 can be $400-450k, and D3-D6 can be made up of this type of player and a starting rookie.

As long as you pick players who will get games, they aren't likely to score under their break evens, they have a chance to break out or worse case just earn some dosh

PLAYER PRICE BREAK EVEN

Taylor Hunt $290,300 54
Gary Rohan $278,900 52
Clancee Pearce $272,100 51
Jamie Macmillan $270,900 50
Ben Sinclair $265,700 49
Kristian Jaksch $264,500 49
Jarman Impey $261,300 49
Brett Goodes $245,200 46

Derek

I might, and that is a stretch, consider Rohan. Only because he should be better than he has shown.

Northerner

Rohan for mine is an afl footballer on athletic ability alone. He’s one of the least natural footballers going around – we’ve seen Irishmen with way better ability to read the play and find the pill. Good luck, but not for me.

Ethan

Thats just the average they need to get over the 3 games
they do need to score 150 or more over their 3 games to make you some cash

Derek

Def: Simpson, Birchell, Newnes, lumumba, ibbot, Saad, Goddard, hamling

Mids: Abblett, Pendlebury, JPK, Wines, Judd, Heeney, Boekhurst, vandenberg, lambert, steel, Ellis-yoll

Ruc: Nic Nat, Hickey, cox

Fwd: Gray, Dusty, Swan, Cloke, Salem, Clark, hogan, lamb

Birchell should be right for round 1, going for value in Ruck with Hickey, not sure the rucks are going to score well this year, and doing the Bruyn manoeuvre with Cloke from Round 1. Get on him!

Donavan

Like the team Derek, but not sold on Hickey (his just not that cheap @ $427k), when you could get a top ruckman like Goldstein for an extra $150k.

If I wanted a ruckman (as a stepping stone), I would go a Max Gawn (Melb) for just under $340k, who IMO will gain in value quicker, is in Melbourne's best 22, and I think will play more games than Hickey in 2015.

That said, I am hoping to trade ruckman this season, after last years ruck issues. Its Goldy & NicNat for me.

Ethan

isnt jamar number 1 ruckman at melbourne?

jayden

isnt birchall still injured

dont like the cloke pick downgrade cloke then upgrade hickey

Derek

Grant will play round 1

Northerner

I see the merits in Hickey. Lone wolf and has proven he can score – can also take a contested mark and kick a couple of goals. Stick with your gut I say.

jayden

hey guys i know this is the wrong thread but im starting to think about selecting mummy as my R1 i know he is dear and injury prone but my point of view is that he is playing the same easy sides as he did at the start of last year and if he scoress big then good but if he gets injured then im not gonna be strapped for cash to sideways and for this to happen i would probably have to downgrade harry taylor to a jaksch type
my current rucks are goldy and maric

SCaddict

I can understand the temptation as he can belt out some monstrous scores and GWS do have an favourable pre-bye draw but the injury risk is too great to justify a $600K plus spend imo.

Yes you can always turf him if things turn sour but trades are precious and I'd rather start with the more durable Goldy or Jacobs options for similar season points output or go with the cheaper Nic Nat alternative if you want take a gamble on his body holding up.

Goldy has played 20 or more games the past 5 season whilst Mummy has never played a 20 game h&a season in his AFL career which is a huge alarm bell in my book. When you are spending over $600K you really want that to be a set and forget situation and Mummy falls short of that I reckon.

throttlefinger

Mummy is in top shape and has an easy starting draw. Goldy usually starts out sharing the ruck work, so his numbers won't be as big (87 ave the first 8 games last season). Mummy's will be MONSTER.

One's value going up. The other down. So if the injury concern weighs too heavily on your mind, wait for Mummy's to peak and Goldy's to drop then swap them. Or wait until Mummy gets injured.

Fact is, he may not get injured this year…we didn't think Sandi could go a whole season, did we? And Goldie could get hurt as well. Rucks aren't the most reliable. Regardless, with Mummy you'll probably be able to afford a Top 3 ruck when he goes down.

Go with your gut on this one. I am…and the Big M will be worth every penny.

Marco_Polo94

I've had Goldy at R1 all pre season. had a dream last night that mummy averaged 130 up to the bye rounds. the super coach gods have spoken and i have listened. Welcome to Norfolk & Chance Shane Mumford.

Sarah

Goldy had a shoulder injury in round 1 last year, which to his credit, didn't cause him to miss a game but did cause his scores to drop a little. Currie only played 3 games before Goldy had the ruck to himself again so I don't think they'll go down the road of Goldy sharing the ruck again… he's too good on his own.

Jayden

Ok thanks for your opinion guys I think if I have some change leftover I’ll get mummy otherwise I’ll stick with goldy with maric at R2

yurkins

if i recall correctly Goldie carried an injury in early 2014 season.

Phil

If you're going after a league win take Goldstein. If you're going after the big one, I think Mummy is very appealing

LEKD0G

Mumford my R1 since day one will happily take the risk

Swans2012

My defence will be close to mid price madness, God help me….. Just can’t see the value in the proven “”premiums”” this year. And by premium I mean 450k plus, though I will consider shaw and hibberd at d1. Currently

Shaw, newnes, 2 of (Shepard, ibbo, berwick and savage) pending this weeks nab games, jaksch and 3 rookies

Got a feeling savage will average 90 this year when his hammy comes good

gareth

Great Article.
due to a change in jobs my SC Research this year has been very minimal.
I have put this team together any feedback would be great:

DEF: simpson,shaw,lubumba,geary,kolodjashnij,goddard – bench: Saad,Mcintosh

MID: ablett,rockcliff,fyfe,selwood,neale,vanberlo,cripps,newton – bench: vandeburg,heney,kraouker

RUCK: Natanuni,Bellchambers – bench: Read

FWD: Gray,Martin,Goddard,Salem,Hogan,Clark – Bench: Daniel,Lambert

thanks

Marco_Polo94

G'day Gareth,

Solid defence, all pretty much a game of pick your best mid pricer this season. Any one of them could come off. Pretty weak midfield compared to what a lot of other super coachers are going with. I've actually changed my mind on ablett and think he's too much of a risk at $700k+. Big risk going with 3 on field rookies in your mid, i'd like another premium in there if it was my team. Risky rucks as well with both of those players being quite injury prone, tho i guess all rucks are. Your forward line looks fantastic, but i just wonder whether you should downgrade a premium for a rookie (of which there are many in the forwards) and upgrade somewhere else. It's a decent team mate but one with many risks in my opinion. Good luck.

Fourbells

Gareth,
I think overall your team is well structure with strength across all lines. I like the selection of Neale.
I think Goddard is the only risk in your forwards.

James

The game is won in the guts as many of you have stated although team balance always wins SC you can't go all mid preicers it will burn you try and find some value. This is mine any comments welcome.

Burgoyne, Shaw, Johnson, Newnes, Rampe, Edwards (Goddard, Saad)

houghts

@SeanySamp

I've gone for a bit of a Hybrid structure. Shaw, Hibberd (if available) and Newnes are locked in, with at least 1 midpricer also locked in there (at this stage it's Ibbotson). One playing rookie is also there. My big dilemma is whether to pick someone like Simpson, or someone like Sheppard.
If I go with Simpson, I can afford Rockliff, Bellchambers (ruck) and Gray.
If I go with Sheppard, I can afford Kennedy, Mumford and Bartel.

In other terms – is losing 3 probable slight scoring reductions in Simpson>Sheppard, Rockliff>Kennedy and Gray>Bartel worth the probable massive scoring increase and the saving of a trade down the track in Bellchambers>Mumford?
Thanks for any input!

Tom

just looking for some leagues to join this season,
Will join any league,
want a challenge

chandanrajdb

Hello Community,

If anybody interested…..Please join…

League Code – 743371

Cheers,
Raj

Danners16

416355 one spot left

RooBoy

Anyone welcome to join 829431 no quitters though!

Josh

Thoughts?

DEF: Smith, Shaw, Gibson, Newnes, Jaksch, Edwards, Goddard, Saad
MID: Ablett, Pendles, Selwood, Priddis, Griffin, Newton, Boekhorst, Laverde, Ellis-Yolmen, Steele, Kraouer
RUC: Mumford, Nic Nat, Read
FWD: Gray, Martin, Swan, Clark, Hogan, Lambert, Daniel, Lonie

Rowan_

Pretty solid effort Josh. Good premium keepers in every line.

Personally, I'm looking at Simpson in front of Smith or Gibson. Just more consistently up at the 90-100 average.
Selwood more likely to drop in price through season than JPK or Fyfe, would you look at either of them?

Obviously keeping an eye on Ablett and NicNat for injuries before Round 1. Good work!