mick-the-madGood day community!

Welcome back to the third edition of this series in building an Elite Superocach Team.

Today I will be looking at a process for selecting my Midprice players. Now before we go any further I will keep stressing that everything I am doing in this series is from my own view point and ties in with my own experiences, preferences and future trading plans. These will all vary for each and every one of you, but what shall remain the same is the process of selecting your Elite Supercoach Team, including your Midprice players.

As discussed in Part 1 and Part 2 of this series I have once again gone with a Midprice strategy. However following Lesson 1 as discussed in Part 1 “Looking Back to Look Forward”, I will be limiting myself to 8 Midprice players in 2015. If you think 8 sounds like a lot, I did go into 2014 with 11.

Aren’t up to date with Parts 1 and 2 in the series?

http://www.jockreynolds.com.au/2015/01/27/supercoach-team-building-part-1/
http://www.jockreynolds.com.au/2015/02/24/supercoach-team-building-part-1-2/

Believe it or not it’s going to be a struggle for me to keep it to 8 Midpricers and I may have already controversially cheated a little by considering Naitanui as a premium, given he is technically priced at $488k.

A loose definition of a Midprice player is normally a player priced between 200k-500k, however for this series of articles I’m going to readjust this definition slightly to reflect what has happened in the game over the last couple of years. As the most expensive rookie, Paddy McCartin is worth $222,300, I have taken anything below this value as a Rookie. So the likes of Newton and Van Berlo are considered Rookies in this series.

Likewise if a player is the 8th best player in his position he must be considered to be a premium. As the defensive line is so weak this year the 8th best backline player, Michael Hibberd is worth $491,100 so I have taken anything above this value as a Premium player. As Naitanui is on the cusp of the price and I have selected him as one of my first picked players I have cheated a little and included him as a Premium selection.

Where to start when selecting your Midprice Players?

Before we get into picking any players we must understand why we are picking Midprice players. This might appear to be a simple question to answer but yet you’d be surprised how many coaches don’t understand why they are choosing a Midprice player in their team.

There are two quite distinctive types of Midprice players. There is the Midprice player you select as a season long keeper and there is the Midprice player that you select as a stepping stone player.

Season Long Keeper

This might sound obvious but if you select a Midprice player under this heading you must look to keep this player for the entire season. This type of player can be either a fallen premium or a breakout player, but what is important here is that these players score consistently throughout the year and come as close as possible to the top 10 in their position by the end of the year. As I am picking 8 Midprice players, in order to have a successful campaign I really need to find 5 season long keepers, meaning I have scope to pick up to 3 stepping stone players.

Stepping Stone Player

Again this might sound obvious but when you select a player under this heading you are looking for them to increase in value while providing a steady stream of points before moving them onto an Elite player during the season. If a Rookie can do the same job as one of these Midprice players then your selection will be a failure, as you’ve affectively over spent on this selection in your team. The best case scenario for this selection type is for them to make a fast start to the year and as you plan to trade them out, many other coaches are considering trading them in. The perfect example of this famous game play known as the “Bruyn Manoeuvre” came in 2013 when the eventual winner John Bruyn started with Cloke as a stepping stone player. This has been detailed in great detail in our inaugural Jock Reynolds Fantasy Football Magazine in the article “Supercoach Behavioural Science 101”

ORDER HERE AND GET IT DELIVERED TO YOUR JOINT

The Top 10 Affect

I touched briefly on this in the last article, and as you can see above, I have stated in order for a Midpriced Season Long Keeper to be considered a success they really need to finish within or as close to the Top 10 players in their position as possible. So when we are selecting our Midprice players this game theory is something we all must be cognitive of.

It is for that reason I have decided to pick more of my Midprice players in the backline than on any other line in my team. I am going to use an example here to better explain my reasoning.

Who is a safer Midprice pick Daniel Rich or Shaun Higgins?

I have purposely chosen the most selected Midprice player in the midfield, in Daniel Rich and the one Midprice player in the backline that send shivers down the spines of coaches up and down the country. However the correct answer to this question is Shaun Higgins and here’s why.

Shaun Higgins best Supercoach year was back in 2009 when he averaged 89 Supercoach points. Daniel Rich’s best Supercoach year came back in 2012 when he averaged 90 Supercoach points. Humour me here and let’s assume that Higgins will average 5 points less than his best year and Rich will average 10 points more. No real science to this but I want to go along with the Supercoach shoal’s thought process here, where the masses think Rich is worth more than 90 points and Higgins is worth less. (Not how I see it but that’s another argument)

If we analysis the top 10 scoring players form 2014 in our backlines and midfield lines we will see the 10th most successful Supercoach defender was Corey Enright who averaged 89 Supercoach points. The 10th most successful Supercoach Midfielder was shared between Matt Priddis and Calum Ward who both averaged 112.8 Supercoach points.

If you assume the Elite Supercoaches will reach full Premium at round 14 and the team that has selected Higgins from the start will now have him in their D6 position for the last 9 rounds of the season. If Higgins averages 84 Supercoach points over the last 9 rounds he will be losing 5 points per round over the top 10 scoring defenders. This will equate to a loss of 45 Supercoach points to this team, compared to teams that have 6 of the top 10 defenders.

Likewise the team that has selected Rich from the start will now have him in their M8 position for the last 9 rounds of the season. If Rich averages 100 Supercoach points over the last 9 rounds he will be losing 12 points per round over the top 10 scoring midfielders. This will equate to a loss of 108 Supercoach points to this team, compared to teams that have 8 top 10 midfielders.

This really means you need to move Rich on as he will be too far off the pace of the top scoring players in his position. However you can afford to keep Higgins as he is close enough to the top 10 players in his position to justify his Season Long Keeper status.

If you don’t think a player is a Season Long Keeper this means you are selecting them as a Stepping Stone Player and you must have a trading plan put in place to move them on. You must also ask yourself the very important question of will a Rookie be able to perform the same role within my team? Stepping Stone Midpricers are dangerous selections and come with the most risk of any selection within SuperCoach game. Rich is a clear Stepping Stone Player but I can guarantee that 50% of the coaches who are selecting him will still have him in their teams come round 23 because they don’t understand the reason why they are selecting him in their initial team.

Don’t get me wrong I will be selecting at least 2 stepping stone players in my side in 2015, so I see the value in their selections. However I will have a timeframe for moving them on already in place and I will make sure I explore all Rookie options before I select a Stepping Stone Midpricer in their place.

First Picked Midprice Players

Okay let’s get into selecting some of these players. As I said in Part 2 of this series, one must analysis each and every player that is selected in their side and no player should get special treatment at the selection table. Below are my first 2 selected Midprice players that I have picked under the heading “Season Long Keepers”. There is nothing out of the ordinary here and I expect both to be in the majority of teams come Round 1.

Midprice

Jack Newnes

In order for Jack to be considered a successful selection in 2015 he needs to finish within the top 10 defenders. Going off last year as a point of reference as we discussed above the 10th most successful Supercoach defender was Corey Enright who averaged 89 Supercoach points.

Jack has been picked as a break out player so if I go back to my lessons from Part One in this series, in order to fulfil Lesson 6; Breakout contenders should show potential during the previous year and/or are sighted for a positional change.

Last season Jack played just over 40% time through the midfield and he has been touted to get even more midfield time in 2015. In 2014 he averaged 88 over the last 7 rounds showing improvement on his first and second thirds of the season.

Therefore Jack meets both criteria from lesson 6 and I feel quite confident that Jack will easily fall within the top 10 defenders in 2015. At worst he should at least match his final third from last year and average 88 points for the year. Even if this is the case it will be close enough to the top 10 defenders to be considered a success.

Dane Swan

In order for Dane to be considered a successful selection in 2015 he needs to finish within the top 10 Forwards. Again going off last year as a point of reference the 10th most successful Supercoach forward was Paul Chapman who averaged 96 Supercoach points.

Dane has been picked as fallen premium player who had a poor year in 2014 due to injury and a lack of any real preseason. So if I go back to my lessons from Part One in this series, in order to fulfil Lesson 4; All players must have completed a full preseason.

Dane has been in full training since the middle of January and by all accounts has trimmed down and is fully fit for the 2015 season.

“Last year taught me a pretty good lesson that you need to come in with some kind of [fitness] base under you, otherwise you’re chasing your tail, and that’s when injuries start to happen and that is exactly what happened last year,” Swan said.

“I expect a lot more of myself. I still think I can play footy at a pretty elite level. I have to listen to my body a bit more.”

Therefore Swan meets the criterion from Lesson 4 and I feel quite confident that Dane will easily fall within the top 10 forwards in 2015. We must remember this guy averaged over 117 Supercoach points for 5 straight years before last year. I’m not suggesting he will average that again in 2015 but I’d be surprised if he averaged anything less than 105 for the year.

Final Word

I hope you all enjoyed my process for selecting my Midprice players and an insight into how to go about picking yours. I hope you all go away and think long and hard about your Midprice players for 2015 and understand why you are selecting them. I had hoped to get through a few more players this week but time constraints have got in my way. Next week I will fill out my team with my remaining Premiums and Midpricers, using all the insight from this series to date. Then in my final article in this series I will finish off my selecting my rookies.

Stay tuned…..

Mick the Mad Irishman

Mick is one of the production crew members and a key writer for the inaugural Jock Reynolds Fantasy football magazine. He is a risk taker, pint drinker, deep thinker and just that little bit mad, but time and time again he has proved to be one of the best fantasy minds in the country. He has finished in the top 1% of game players for the last 5 years, with a season high finish of 27 in 2013.

Follow the great man on twitter @Da_Mad_Irishman

 


63 Comments

themisfitssc · 12/03/2015 at 19:54

very excellent insite mick as alway. i have good mid procers ready to score well…….i hope

Gollyontong · 12/03/2015 at 19:56

Mate, I gotta be honest here, your Rich versus Higgins section was one big clusterf#%ck of words that put my head into permanent migraine territory! We all have dilemmas this close to the first bounce, but I feel that you just verbalized the diarrhea floating around in your head and in the end you were no closer to a resolution than I was to a Pandene rapid to get over what I just read!
Dont get me wrong, i love most of your stuff, that just blew my fizzle top 🙂

    Irish · 12/03/2015 at 20:30

    Disagree. Made solid sense but I am Irish and havE had a few pints. Watching Last quarter of NAB game. Is josh Caddy a better pick for a stepping stone than Rich?
    Thanks mick

    Tony · 12/03/2015 at 20:31

    Suggest you re-read it, Golly. It's perhaps the most insightful passage posted in the past few weeks. Far from verbal diarrhoea.

    And that is in no way disrespecting the other eminent team members, who set the bar very high. It's just that it eloquently demonstrates that mid-pricers in the MIDS have far more to do than those in DEF (and FWD, too, I suspect).

    bloke · 12/03/2015 at 20:52

    Made perfect sense to me :O

    @Da_Mad_Irishman · 12/03/2015 at 21:37

    No offence taken Gollyontong 😀 I'm glad most of my stuff gets loved my you – can't win them all

      jockreynolds · 12/03/2015 at 21:42

      Shit I love you Micky. I really do mate

        Patrick · 14/03/2015 at 02:59

        Mick, why are you telling everyone my rolled gold, I think 3 rookie defenders will play at the start, so I have all my 4 price selection in defence, all I need them to average is 85. If they achieve this they are all season long keepers! This has allowed me to go guns and rookies in mid, rucks and fwds!

        What I like most about this is, if it is successful, I can concentrate on selecting the right mids and fwds (set and forget ruck, which I typically don't like but I think we have no ther options at the moment) at the right price with the right trades! Hope I am right on my team because it is unintentionally against the grain

    David · 13/03/2015 at 01:31

    Golly, I know what you mean. I had to read that bit twice to get the gist. What I took from it was this: a midpriced defender (Higgins) does not need to score as high l as a midpriced midfielder (Rich) to reach top 10 in their position and therefore be worthy of selection.

      Patrick · 14/03/2015 at 03:00

      Correct

    t_mitch · 13/03/2015 at 03:46

    just give it another read and im sure it will begin to make sence. it wasnt rich "verses" higgins, they are just two examples.

    Sarah · 13/03/2015 at 08:30

    Wow, I think you need to read it again. It made sense to me.

KJU FC · 12/03/2015 at 19:56

Hey Mick, absolutely love these articles! I was wondering if you are still sticking with you word on Nic Nat from the last article? Apparently he has been struggling and without seeing him in NAB cup is he still a must have?

    @Da_Mad_Irishman · 12/03/2015 at 21:41

    Things have changed since Part 2 alright – I'm sticking with my word for now but my Ruck structures might have changed slightly – willing to make make up plans but I still have Nic Nat at R1.

pauly walnuts · 12/03/2015 at 20:02

Excellent work Mick, can I please get your thoughts on the following 3 players who I currently have in my team with also J.Newnes already;
T.Langdon,N.Vlastuin & C.Pearce – I have gone heavy in the Mid,Ruck & Fwds , just trying to find value down back with the view to upgrade later on.

    @Da_Mad_Irishman · 12/03/2015 at 21:51

    Pauly,

    Not sold on either Langdon or Vlastuin. Again that is my opinion and by no means gospel. Langdon will score tonnes again this year so he could be used as a "Stepping Stone" player but I don't think he will average much more than 80 so can't see him as a season long keeper and there could be better options in his price range. Second year player could go either way too. Just another added risk

    I won't lie to you but haven't given Vlastuin any thought as of yet so I'm not the best qualified to comment on him. Crouching One is the man to talk to about the tigers players.

    C. Pearce is the best "Stepping Stone" player in the backline – LOCKED

      Pauly Walnuts · 13/03/2015 at 13:48

      Cheers Mick, Thanks for your thoughtful reply, all the best for St.Patricks Day and all that Green Beer !!

@RagingBulls34 · 12/03/2015 at 20:06

Corey Enright was the 10th best defender last year, but nearly half of those players are gone now. So an average of 85 could get you top 10 in defence this year. So based on your theory Higgins could make top 10 (though I doubt it, because he is an absolute spud), but so could Langdon, KK, Hampton, McDonald and co. Defence is a fickle business this year, which makes it that much more interesting. Great article!

    @Da_Mad_Irishman · 12/03/2015 at 21:53

    Not quite – He is the 10th best available defender based on 2014 averages. This doesn't take into account the players that were defenders last year and are only available in other positions this year.

      Patrick · 14/03/2015 at 03:14

      I think top 10 is irrelevant this year in def! Think the difference from the top 1 – 25 will be inside 10 points!

      To get the top players you need to buy 5 at 500k for return of 95 points per player (3 rookie selection) vs 5 at 300k for return of 85 points per player (3 rookies). So I feel I am saving $1m to spend elsewhere for 50 less points per round (the equivalent to a shit performing rookie)

      I have based this on defenders at 500k having minimal to no improvement and a collective of 5 mid pricer have a greater improvement of their output!

Zack · 12/03/2015 at 20:11

Nice Mick, fully understand what you re trying to achieve here.

For what it's worth, here's my first attempt. A bit predictable and no real standout POD's, and rough round the edges, but would appreciate any criticism, constructive or otherwise.

Backs – N.Malceski, H.Shaw, J.Newnes, B.Sheppard, B.Jcobs, S.Edwards, (H.Goddard, A.Saad)

Mids – G.Ablett, S.Pendlebury, J.Selwood, M.Priddis, R.Griffen, T.Mitchell, N. Van Berlo, J.Anderson, I.Heeney, (T.Miller, K.Lambert)

Rucs – P.Ryder, N.Naitanui, (T.Read)

Fwds – R.Gray, D.Swan, T.Bellchambers, P.Karnezis, J.Hogan, J.Lonie, (T.Lamb, N.Krakouer)

    @Da_Mad_Irishman · 12/03/2015 at 21:58

    Zack,

    Great first up team.

    The one player I'd advise you move out of your team is P Ryder. Will play forward this year and will only have 20% Ruck time. Expect him to go down in price a lot over the first 1/3 of the season.

    Everything else looks good mate.

UDA · 12/03/2015 at 21:13

CLARK 5 GOALS!!!!! 4th Q

we should keep an eye on him against carlton next weekend

tom · 12/03/2015 at 21:17

So are you picking Higgins, Mick? My brain was hurting after that paragraph on him haha

    @Da_Mad_Irishman · 12/03/2015 at 22:37

    Not a LOCK just yet but he's a good chance – still undecided – trying not to cloud my judgement but not sure if I have a bias view point or not

Kev · 12/03/2015 at 21:35

Fabulous insight, Mick. Interested to see your other mid price selections in the next article. I love your voice of reason in justifying these blokes, not getting carried away with these mickey mouse nab cup games and looking at proper data from a full season. Cheers mate

    @Da_Mad_Irishman · 12/03/2015 at 22:00

    Thanks Kev,

    NAB form isn't the be all and end all. I'm looking at NAB just to confirm if a player is likely in the best 22 or is fully fit, not at what they score. Means nothing. Saying that some of my seclects have scored well but thats not the reason they are in my team.

jamie · 12/03/2015 at 21:37

BACKS –
1. Shaw, H 2. Newnes, J 3. Lumumba, H 4. Higgins, S 5. Langdon, T 6. Whitecross, B( Goddard, H, Saad, A)

MIDFIELDERS –
7. Ablett, G 8. Selwood, J 9. Beams, D 10. Gray, R 11. Griffen, R 12. Rich, D 13. van Berlo, N 14. Pickett, J(25. de Goey, J, 26. Heeney, I, 27. Krakouer, N)

RUCKS
15. Naitanui, N 16. Leuenberger, M (28. Cox, M)

FORWARDS
– 17. Goddard, B, 18. Swan, D, 19. Mitchell, T, 20. Clark, M, 21. Karnezis, P, 22. Hogan, J, ( 29. Lamb, T,30. Lambert, K)

    @Da_Mad_Irishman · 12/03/2015 at 22:02

    Great team Jamie,

    Leuenberger is a trap so be carefull. Rich is a stepping stone so be sure to make plans to move him on.

    Best of luck mate

jamie · 12/03/2015 at 21:38

thoughts about this team for now.

Slime · 12/03/2015 at 22:15

Nice write up Mick thanks for sharing your wisdom with us,
Could I please get your thoughts on Rohan Bewick & Devon Smith as breakout contenders this year ?

r2d2 · 12/03/2015 at 22:34

Def -shaw, kelly, newnes ,Pearce ,ibbotson ,goddard ( dick , saad). MID- Ablett, Pendles , Dangerfield ,wines,swallow,rich ,Newton ,cockatoo, (freeman,Heeney ,boekhorst). Ruck- Nic nat , Luenberger (read). FWD- Deledio ,goddard , swan,Mitchell ,Bellchambers ,Clark ( lonie , lavarde). THOUGHTS please community ……. Don’t hold back either

    Ethan · 13/03/2015 at 09:20

    i personally would only have either pearce of ibbotson
    unlikely both will score well on the same week
    Leunberger is not guarenteed big scores and would be better invested in a premium ruckman

      r2d2 · 13/03/2015 at 12:28

      Yeah , I not sold on luey, and good point on 2 dockers , cheers

Conor · 12/03/2015 at 22:38

Backs:
K.Simpson, S.Burgoyne, J.Newnes, C.Pearce, H.Goddard, A.Saad, N. Brown, D.Viojo-Rainbow
Mids:
G.Ablett, T.Rockliff, N.Fyfe, R.Sloane, A.Swallow or R.Griffen, N.Van Berlo, I.Heeny, N.Freeman, N Cockatoo, J.Anderson, B.Boekhorst
Rucks:
S.Jacobs, N.Naitanui, T.Nankervis
Fwrds:
R.Gray, B.Goddard, M.Bontempelli, T.Membrey, M.Clark, J.Hogan, T.Lamb, K.Lambert

150 k spare

Thoughts??

Seaford Scouse · 12/03/2015 at 23:07

Absolute nuggets of genius Mick, cheers mate, so appreciate your insights on here.

One question I have for you on this is do you think mid-pricers who will earn you 200k are worth more than a rookie who will make you 200k? By my reckoning you would make the same but surely earn more points as they are priced to average higher so a sliding scale of sorts would need to be applied to truly assess value or have been sinking too many frothys!!!

    Seaford Scouse · 13/03/2015 at 00:15

    One other point to add Mick. You’ve touched on something I’ve been thinking about most of pre-season and that is what is a premium?

    The widely held belief is that it’s a player priced over 500k which for a midfielder seems sound enough. However down back there’s only 4 players that meet this criteria so every team has to start with with at least 2 mid-pricers, at best, down back based on this which holds no logic.

    You seem to have drawn a fairly arbitrary line using top priced rookies as a bottom end water mark which seems fine but the question I would love to hear your thoughts on are what price points would you consider a premium to be at in the non-midfield lines? Should we use a percentage based on the 500k+ for a midfielder and apply that percentage to all other lines for example?

    And if so how does that then play into your guidance on no more than 8 mid pricers all-up?

Cyril is Delicious · 12/03/2015 at 23:30

Thoughts on Ricky Henderson at D4? I like him, but hadn’t done enough i feel, not playing tonight. What are the community’s thoughts in him. Cheers

throttlefinger · 12/03/2015 at 23:42

In awe of your brain as always, Mick. Will be chewing on this today. Swan and Newnes have been firming entrenched in my side, but your reasoning, particularly about Newnes, locks both in. Not feeling Titch (hasn't played over 15 games and for that price would like more assurances).

Clancee is the only other midpricer I'm really considering. But need to see what he does in next game. Looked promising. Like the look of Langdon, KK and Hampton. Feel one of them will hit 85-90. Just not sure which one. May just avoid as we look like we'll get 2-3 starting rookies to select for our back line.

@SeanySamp · 13/03/2015 at 00:06

Great article! Makes selecting midpricers all the more clearer.
Higgins, Kolo, Geary, Sheppard – who does the community reckon will average the 88+ to be considered a success as a season long keeper out of these players? Mick, would love some of your insight here!
Cheers

The Ranger · 13/03/2015 at 00:17

Absolute gold Mick.
In this season of confusion mid price wisdom will be key methinks.
Can't believe I'm thinking about Higgins again…
Who's your R2?

    t_mitch · 13/03/2015 at 07:54

    bellchambers is the ideal r2 if your using a midpriced r2 structure, brendan goddard has said that he will be the number 1 ruck at the bombers, last year 17 of 18 number 1 ruckmen avg 78+ (only collingwoods witts avg less, 72) so taking this into account say he avg 78, his price will rise high enough to be a "stepping stone" to a premium ruck. all this as long as he is not suspended with other bombers players of course.

      jake · 13/03/2015 at 18:51

      I to currently have bellchambers , hopefully he starts off the season well and i can use him as a stepping stone!

yurkins · 13/03/2015 at 00:29

great work Mick clear as day we need to have in mind keepers and punters. plenty to mull over

t_mitch · 13/03/2015 at 03:44

absolutly loved the article mick, going in with 3 "stepping stone" players myself, pearce, macmillan and bellchambers, rest will be keepers and rookies, i was also considering newton a stepping stone player but agree with the theory that he can be considered a rookie. once again i read an article that makes me want to consider higgins, still cant do it but gee wiz its getting close.

Captain Pugwash · 13/03/2015 at 08:38

Bang!

That was Deep Brother ! And I totally got it. Created novel like visions for me. That’s not to be confused with Jocks often drunken and often blurred visions.

Cheers Cpt. P

NJEmerz · 13/03/2015 at 12:38

Hey guys I'm wondering what was everyones team value at the end of the year and around half way through. I haven't played for two years now although i love it i was busy with other things. I seem to remember having a team around the mid 12 mil range towards the end of the season last time i played. Also can you win the weekly and overall prises if you have a few accounts, i have a strategy to win one of the weekly rounds and then want to have a team for the overall comp.
Cheers

    @Da_Mad_Irishman · 13/03/2015 at 18:16

    I got up to 13.5 million at the end of last year. The winner broke past the 14million mark

NJEmerz · 13/03/2015 at 15:49

Hey Guys here's my team, a lot of the rookies i am unsure about and i feel like i have to many mid range guys.
Defence
1. Malceski, N
GCS$566,600
2. Jaensch, M
ADE$481,100
3. Newnes, J
STKMID$436,800
4. Hampton, C
GWS$402,600
5. Ibbotson, G
FRE$342,900
6. Pearce, C
FREMID$278,900
23. Goddard, H
STKFWD$122,300
24. Saad, A
GCSMID$102,400

MIDFIELDERS
7. Rockliff, T
BRL$709,500
8. Pendlebury, S
COL$668,800
9. Beams, D
BRL$621,000
10. Griffen, R
GWS$530,700
11. Rich, D
BRL$348,300
12. van Berlo, N
ADE$215,600
13. Cockatoo, N
GEE$177,300
14. Heeney, I
SYD$137,300
25. Anderson, J
HAW$141,400
26. Vandenberg, A
MEL$127,900
27. Steele, J
GWSFWD$117,300
RUCKS
15. Sandilands, A
FRE$580,800
16. Ryder, P
PTAFWD$543,400
28. Read, T
GEEFWD$109,900

FORWARDS
17. Bartel, J
GEE$549,000
18. Swan, D
COLMID$464,500
19. Mitchell, T
SYDMID$405,600
20. Bellchambers, T
ESSRUC$302,500
21. Karnezis, P
COL$133,500
22. Krakouer, N
PTAMID$106,900
29. Hogan, J
MEL$130,400
30. Lambert, K
RICMID$102,400

Ainsley · 13/03/2015 at 16:41

Brad Ebert or Andrew Swallow as a 500k MID?
Thanks

    The Governor · 13/03/2015 at 17:32

    Swallow has the runs on the board…pre-2014. Not sure of Ebert's highest season average. I'd pick Swallow.

    @Da_Mad_Irishman · 13/03/2015 at 18:15

    Agree Swallow all the way

The Governor · 13/03/2015 at 17:31

Mick, you're a champion. Refresh my memory, was it you in 2013 who was in contention for the big $$ until the final few hurdles?

I need some advice from yourself or the community. Robbie Gray is a star and priced accordingly. However, Port Adelaide's first 5 weeks are pretty solid – vs Freo, Syd, Nth, Haw, Ade.

Is this enough to put anyone off Gray at that price???

    @Da_Mad_Irishman · 13/03/2015 at 18:14

    This is a very interesting point you raise!

    Are Port a top 2 team this year? If you think they are they are going to win 3-4 of these games. If they are going to win these games they are going to need game winners and that is what Robbie Gray is. However he doesn't have the best record against these side from last year.

    Last year he scored:
    123 (round 23 loss) and 121 (semi final win) against Fremantle
    93 (round 13 loss) and 126 (round 20 loss) against Sydney
    79 (round 3 loss) to North
    107 (round 10 win) and 103 (preliminary final loss) against Hawthorn
    78 (round 2 win) and 89 (round 15 loss) against Adelaide

    Thats only an average of 102.11 against these sides in a spread of 3 wins and 6 losses

    Was locked in my team until you raised this point – I think I might wait to upgrade Gray

      The Governor · 21/03/2015 at 17:44

      Mick. I take it back. Robbie Gray's first half against Adelaide has forced me to eat my words. If you don't have Robbie Gray locked in your forward line for Round 1, you're a moron. He's in.

jake · 13/03/2015 at 18:48

could i get anyones thoughts on my team please? i got 170k in the bank btw

DEFENCE : Shaw, Hibberd, Newnes, Lumumba, Pearce, Goddard (Hamling, Viojo Rainbow)

MIDS: Ablett, Pendlebury, Dangerfield, Griffen, Swallow, Newton, Heeney, Boekhorst (Vandenberg, lambert, Ellis-Yolmen)

RUCK: Nic Nat, Bellchambers (Read)

FORWARDS: Goddard, Martin, Bennell, Swan, Hogan, Clark (Steele, Karnezis)

Borko · 13/03/2015 at 22:30

Thanks Mad Mick for this wonderful series of articles. I can genuinely say this one has ushered in a paradigm shift, at least in my mind.

Our standard categories are premiums, mid pricers and rookies. But I now think that it may be better to think of keepers, stepping stones and cash cows. Here's why:

We all need at least 12 keepers in our starting squads. My threshold for a keeper is the 'number of positions available x 1.5'. Therefore, a defensive selection can only be considered a keeper if he is expected to finish in the top 9 (6 x 1.5 = 9). A midfielder selection must finish in the top 12 (8 x 1.5), etc.
Based on 2014 averages, this breaks down as follows:
DEF – top 9 (92.6)
MID – top 12 (111.7)
RUC – top 3 (108.0)
FWD – top 9 (99.0)

Keepers can start at any price. Many will be at least $500k but the key to supercoach is to find the value keepers. In 2014, it was Swallow, Parker and Gray. A keeper could even be a priced below $200k – in 2010, Michael Barlow was on track to be a keeper until his broken leg. Could it be Mitch Clark this year?

We need some of these value picks but we also need to build a solid foundation using the 'one third' rule. In defence, this means I am only trying to pick three of the top 9 in my initial squad (at this stage, this will be Simpson, shaw and newnes). Same deal for the forwards (at this stage, deledio, Zorko and swan). I am going for safe picks with a little bit of value.

Things get interesting in the rucks, where I will only try to pick one keeper (Goldstein or Natanui, but not both). This eliminates the 'set and forget' option as I think it is just too hard to pick 2 out of the top 3 ruckmen before the start of the season.

So far I have 7 keepers so i need another 5 in the midfield (this is the exception to the one-third rule). M1 to M4 will be a mix of super premiums (GAJ, Pendles, Fyfe) and rock solid options (JPK, Sloane, Priddis) but I will be running low on cash by this stage.

M5 and M6 are critical and could be the difference between a lot of teams. One of them needs to be the final keeper. There are a few options:
1. play it safe with another rock solid option at M5 and a stepping stone or cash cow at M6
2. roll the dice with a fallen premium (griffin, swallow) at M5 and an emerging premium (wines, crouch) at M6
3. Or a combination of the above (each has its own risks and reward)

The rest of our teams are made up with:
* Stepping stones – consistent scoring, slight increase in value, then upgrade to a keeper between rounds 8-14
* Cash cows – reasonable scoring, large increase in value, then either downgrade to another cash cow or upgrade to a keeper between rounds 8-14 (therefore, some cash cows are actually stepping stones)

The exact mix will depend on how much has been spent on the keepers and how much risk you want to take. And here is another key point – some of these players may end up as keepers as well (perhaps Bellchambers, Higgins, Clark or someone that no one is talking about). But even if they don't, they will have fulfilled their roles as stepping stones (unless they completely fall away a la Tmitchell or josh caddy in 2014). And at least you still have your solid 12 that can be added to during the season.

Of course, injuries and form can create problems (and probably will) but I think this approach will give my team more resilience and, most importantly, a clear focus at the selection table.

Am I crazy or does this kind of make sense? Love to hear what the community thinks. Cheers.

    evenbetterthantherealtim · 17/03/2015 at 13:34

    Hi Borko
    think your plan makes lots of sense, i agree with the terminology (and Micks description of the two type of mid-pricers). I also think the 1.5x rule for keepers is sensible and less arbitrary than the top 10 rule. The other option i was considering was a points tolerance, so trying to have all my players within a set amount of points of the 6th best forward/defender, 8th best mid, 2nd best ruck. Set at 3 points on 2014 figures this would have similar results to your 1.5 rule with 9 defenders; 14 mids; 3 rucks; 9 forwards. This suggests to me that you have more reasonable options for M8 than F6/D6 for example.

    One question though what do you base the 12 keepers on? I've noticed this is the generally accepted wisdom and assume its based on needing 10 upgrades and each upgrade requiring two downgrades but obviously some upgrades don't require two full downgrades and stepping stones should only require 1 and then there is injury cover. Is there any formula behind the 12 number or just it seems to work out right? and do you think it's different for coaches aiming for league vs overall?

    Thanks again i'll definitely be coming back to your post think theres some real sound strategy there.

@t_woof · 14/03/2015 at 00:30

Ripping article Mick. Was a pleasure to read.

nick · 15/03/2015 at 00:18

hay I have a question this is of the subject lets say u have stefin martin and mummy in your team and with the new scores 5 points a adventage etc those guys could get iike 200 plus scores as they are both ball winners as I am going start with those 2 think the rest of my team is unreal just thought what u guys reckon

Jel · 15/03/2015 at 12:22

Looking at either Z Clarke or D Hale as FWD/RUC swing men in the FWD line. Am I barking up the wrong tree using either of them?

Corey · 26/03/2015 at 18:54

thoughts on buddy or should i get swan instead

John Smith · 04/05/2015 at 17:57

absolutely loved the article mick, going in with 3 "stepping stone" players myself, pearce, macmillan and bellchambers, rest will be keepers and rookies, i was also considering newton a stepping stone player but agree with the theory that he can be considered a rookie. once again i read an article that makes me want to consider higgins, still cant do it but gee wiz its getting close. http://www.lgnetworksinc.com

Comments are closed.