Welcome back to the third edition of this series in building an Elite Superocach Team.
Today I will be looking at a process for selecting my Midprice players. Now before we go any further I will keep stressing that everything I am doing in this series is from my own view point and ties in with my own experiences, preferences and future trading plans. These will all vary for each and every one of you, but what shall remain the same is the process of selecting your Elite Supercoach Team, including your Midprice players.
As discussed in Part 1 and Part 2 of this series I have once again gone with a Midprice strategy. However following Lesson 1 as discussed in Part 1 “Looking Back to Look Forward”, I will be limiting myself to 8 Midprice players in 2015. If you think 8 sounds like a lot, I did go into 2014 with 11.
Aren’t up to date with Parts 1 and 2 in the series?
Believe it or not it’s going to be a struggle for me to keep it to 8 Midpricers and I may have already controversially cheated a little by considering Naitanui as a premium, given he is technically priced at $488k.
A loose definition of a Midprice player is normally a player priced between 200k-500k, however for this series of articles I’m going to readjust this definition slightly to reflect what has happened in the game over the last couple of years. As the most expensive rookie, Paddy McCartin is worth $222,300, I have taken anything below this value as a Rookie. So the likes of Newton and Van Berlo are considered Rookies in this series.
Likewise if a player is the 8th best player in his position he must be considered to be a premium. As the defensive line is so weak this year the 8th best backline player, Michael Hibberd is worth $491,100 so I have taken anything above this value as a Premium player. As Naitanui is on the cusp of the price and I have selected him as one of my first picked players I have cheated a little and included him as a Premium selection.
Where to start when selecting your Midprice Players?
Before we get into picking any players we must understand why we are picking Midprice players. This might appear to be a simple question to answer but yet you’d be surprised how many coaches don’t understand why they are choosing a Midprice player in their team.
There are two quite distinctive types of Midprice players. There is the Midprice player you select as a season long keeper and there is the Midprice player that you select as a stepping stone player.
Season Long Keeper
This might sound obvious but if you select a Midprice player under this heading you must look to keep this player for the entire season. This type of player can be either a fallen premium or a breakout player, but what is important here is that these players score consistently throughout the year and come as close as possible to the top 10 in their position by the end of the year. As I am picking 8 Midprice players, in order to have a successful campaign I really need to find 5 season long keepers, meaning I have scope to pick up to 3 stepping stone players.
Stepping Stone Player
Again this might sound obvious but when you select a player under this heading you are looking for them to increase in value while providing a steady stream of points before moving them onto an Elite player during the season. If a Rookie can do the same job as one of these Midprice players then your selection will be a failure, as you’ve affectively over spent on this selection in your team. The best case scenario for this selection type is for them to make a fast start to the year and as you plan to trade them out, many other coaches are considering trading them in. The perfect example of this famous game play known as the “Bruyn Manoeuvre” came in 2013 when the eventual winner John Bruyn started with Cloke as a stepping stone player. This has been detailed in great detail in our inaugural Jock Reynolds Fantasy Football Magazine in the article “Supercoach Behavioural Science 101”
The Top 10 Affect
I touched briefly on this in the last article, and as you can see above, I have stated in order for a Midpriced Season Long Keeper to be considered a success they really need to finish within or as close to the Top 10 players in their position as possible. So when we are selecting our Midprice players this game theory is something we all must be cognitive of.
It is for that reason I have decided to pick more of my Midprice players in the backline than on any other line in my team. I am going to use an example here to better explain my reasoning.
Who is a safer Midprice pick Daniel Rich or Shaun Higgins?
I have purposely chosen the most selected Midprice player in the midfield, in Daniel Rich and the one Midprice player in the backline that send shivers down the spines of coaches up and down the country. However the correct answer to this question is Shaun Higgins and here’s why.
Shaun Higgins best Supercoach year was back in 2009 when he averaged 89 Supercoach points. Daniel Rich’s best Supercoach year came back in 2012 when he averaged 90 Supercoach points. Humour me here and let’s assume that Higgins will average 5 points less than his best year and Rich will average 10 points more. No real science to this but I want to go along with the Supercoach shoal’s thought process here, where the masses think Rich is worth more than 90 points and Higgins is worth less. (Not how I see it but that’s another argument)
If we analysis the top 10 scoring players form 2014 in our backlines and midfield lines we will see the 10th most successful Supercoach defender was Corey Enright who averaged 89 Supercoach points. The 10th most successful Supercoach Midfielder was shared between Matt Priddis and Calum Ward who both averaged 112.8 Supercoach points.
If you assume the Elite Supercoaches will reach full Premium at round 14 and the team that has selected Higgins from the start will now have him in their D6 position for the last 9 rounds of the season. If Higgins averages 84 Supercoach points over the last 9 rounds he will be losing 5 points per round over the top 10 scoring defenders. This will equate to a loss of 45 Supercoach points to this team, compared to teams that have 6 of the top 10 defenders.
Likewise the team that has selected Rich from the start will now have him in their M8 position for the last 9 rounds of the season. If Rich averages 100 Supercoach points over the last 9 rounds he will be losing 12 points per round over the top 10 scoring midfielders. This will equate to a loss of 108 Supercoach points to this team, compared to teams that have 8 top 10 midfielders.
This really means you need to move Rich on as he will be too far off the pace of the top scoring players in his position. However you can afford to keep Higgins as he is close enough to the top 10 players in his position to justify his Season Long Keeper status.
If you don’t think a player is a Season Long Keeper this means you are selecting them as a Stepping Stone Player and you must have a trading plan put in place to move them on. You must also ask yourself the very important question of will a Rookie be able to perform the same role within my team? Stepping Stone Midpricers are dangerous selections and come with the most risk of any selection within SuperCoach game. Rich is a clear Stepping Stone Player but I can guarantee that 50% of the coaches who are selecting him will still have him in their teams come round 23 because they don’t understand the reason why they are selecting him in their initial team.
Don’t get me wrong I will be selecting at least 2 stepping stone players in my side in 2015, so I see the value in their selections. However I will have a timeframe for moving them on already in place and I will make sure I explore all Rookie options before I select a Stepping Stone Midpricer in their place.
First Picked Midprice Players
Okay let’s get into selecting some of these players. As I said in Part 2 of this series, one must analysis each and every player that is selected in their side and no player should get special treatment at the selection table. Below are my first 2 selected Midprice players that I have picked under the heading “Season Long Keepers”. There is nothing out of the ordinary here and I expect both to be in the majority of teams come Round 1.
In order for Jack to be considered a successful selection in 2015 he needs to finish within the top 10 defenders. Going off last year as a point of reference as we discussed above the 10th most successful Supercoach defender was Corey Enright who averaged 89 Supercoach points.
Jack has been picked as a break out player so if I go back to my lessons from Part One in this series, in order to fulfil Lesson 6; Breakout contenders should show potential during the previous year and/or are sighted for a positional change.
Last season Jack played just over 40% time through the midfield and he has been touted to get even more midfield time in 2015. In 2014 he averaged 88 over the last 7 rounds showing improvement on his first and second thirds of the season.
Therefore Jack meets both criteria from lesson 6 and I feel quite confident that Jack will easily fall within the top 10 defenders in 2015. At worst he should at least match his final third from last year and average 88 points for the year. Even if this is the case it will be close enough to the top 10 defenders to be considered a success.
In order for Dane to be considered a successful selection in 2015 he needs to finish within the top 10 Forwards. Again going off last year as a point of reference the 10th most successful Supercoach forward was Paul Chapman who averaged 96 Supercoach points.
Dane has been picked as fallen premium player who had a poor year in 2014 due to injury and a lack of any real preseason. So if I go back to my lessons from Part One in this series, in order to fulfil Lesson 4; All players must have completed a full preseason.
Dane has been in full training since the middle of January and by all accounts has trimmed down and is fully fit for the 2015 season.
“Last year taught me a pretty good lesson that you need to come in with some kind of [fitness] base under you, otherwise you’re chasing your tail, and that’s when injuries start to happen and that is exactly what happened last year,” Swan said.
“I expect a lot more of myself. I still think I can play footy at a pretty elite level. I have to listen to my body a bit more.”
Therefore Swan meets the criterion from Lesson 4 and I feel quite confident that Dane will easily fall within the top 10 forwards in 2015. We must remember this guy averaged over 117 Supercoach points for 5 straight years before last year. I’m not suggesting he will average that again in 2015 but I’d be surprised if he averaged anything less than 105 for the year.
I hope you all enjoyed my process for selecting my Midprice players and an insight into how to go about picking yours. I hope you all go away and think long and hard about your Midprice players for 2015 and understand why you are selecting them. I had hoped to get through a few more players this week but time constraints have got in my way. Next week I will fill out my team with my remaining Premiums and Midpricers, using all the insight from this series to date. Then in my final article in this series I will finish off my selecting my rookies.
Mick the Mad Irishman
Mick is one of the production crew members and a key writer for the inaugural Jock Reynolds Fantasy football magazine. He is a risk taker, pint drinker, deep thinker and just that little bit mad, but time and time again he has proved to be one of the best fantasy minds in the country. He has finished in the top 1% of game players for the last 5 years, with a season high finish of 27 in 2013.
Follow the great man on twitter @Da_Mad_Irishman