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NAB Supercoach Significance Report – FREM v MELB

Published by Jock on

Jock Reynolds Supercoach GodNewton round 1 midfield claim gains gravity. 

Ben Newton whacked on the Melbourne colours for the first time tonight. And if tonight was any indication his fifth season in the AFL system looks certain to be the one that gets his career up and running.

Ben Newton (MID $215,000) fluffed around on the fringes at Port Adelaide – but looks likely to slot straight into the Demon midfield. I must pay my respects here to General Soreness who identified the significance od Ben Newton as a selection option in November (click here for his analysis).

I’m not one to get carried away at this stage of the preseason, but based on his performance this evening I’m backing him to become a fixture in the guts at Melbourne. He’d had the pill 8 times by quarter time and finished with 13 touches before being subbed off early. I’d seen enough.

I wouldn’t worry about the fact Ben was subbed out late after a high knock. Remember – his uncle Sir Isaac Newton copped a high knock on the scone from an apple back in the day and went on to discover the theorems of the universe. Take comfort in his ability to bounce back given this pedigree.

Absent Best 22 Players:

Freo: Nat Fyfe, Ryan Crowley, Aaron Sandilands, Garrick Ibbotson, Danyle Pearce, Zac Dawson, Anthony Morabito, Colin “who ate all the pies” Sylvia.

Melb: Bernie Vince, Jeremy Howe, Dean Terlich, Jack Fitzpatrick, Jack Trengove, Jack Viney, Angus Brayshaw, Billy Stretch, Jake Spencer.

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Other significant performances:

  • Aaron Vandenberg (MID $127,900) started sub and came on after half time. He’d smacked one through the big sticks within minutes. If this kid gets the call up from the rookie list he could very well find himself in a hell of a lot of midfield. A ball magnet, mature aged player who forced his way into the AFL system with sheer ability to acquire the football at will. I’m aroused. I reckon a few aspiring Demon midfielders will be soiling themselves with this kid waiting in the wings.
  • Spindle shanks Steven Hill (MID $516,600) played across half back with stints in the middle which was interesting. He was one of Fremantle’s best and had plenty of it tonight. May suck a few in – I’d suggest he’s one of Fremantle’s #1 lockdown targets. The effects of this we won’t see during the NAB.
  • Higgo likes Clancee Pearce (DEF/MID $278,900) and I happen to know Ross Lyon does as well. Gotta say Higg – I liked what I saw mate.Was busy all night with 19 touches at 90% effectiveness. DEF eligibility. At this price we need to look at him.
  • Michael Walters (FWD $383,000) is an extremely important player at Fremantle – and if he can stay fit will need to be considered. Looked very sharp and fit – had 13 important disposals, 5 tackles and a goal.
  • Cam Sutcliffe (DEF $377,200) had 9 possessions to quarter time to finish with 13 kicks 4 handballs. Pains me to say it – but we could have another midpriced option to add to the watch list here. Would love to have seen his role if Ibbotson had have played (btw – Ibbotson still hasn’t participated in any competitive training). And I wonder how his role may be effected by Paul Duffield’s shoulder injury late in the game (which looked significant).
  • The Prince The One Who Is Gifted And Will Have The Last Laugh – Heritier Lumumba (DEF/MID $417,000) was good. He gathered 19 touches – but we’ll never know the spiritual contribution that he made out there tonight. If spiritual hard ball gets were measured by champion data this bloke would reach Ablett proportions.
  • Jesse Hogan (FWD $130,400) He’s a big bastard this kid! Started pretty ordinarily but had established himself by the end of the game. Should remain locked into our FWD lines although I had some concern up till half time.
  • Jeff Garlett (FWD $259,200) worked into things as the game wore on without being overly impressive. Did a few good 1% team things which will be well looked upon by Sir Paul in terms of a round 1 berth.

 

Flaccid Performances:

  • Very early days – but I was concerned by the performance of Christian Salem (FWD $185,000). He wasn’t great down back. Sloppy at times.. spilt marks.. fumbled.. had handballs intercepted.. kicked it out of bounds. I’ll forgive him this run and watch his next hitout very closely.
  • Colin Sylvia (FRE FWD $206) did not play. Has been expelled by Ross Lyon to the WAFL for returning from the off season overweight. He is now rumoured to be seething after the MCG announced significant reductions to the price of hot chips and pies this week. Never has he rued his departure from the Melbourne Football Club more.
  • Poor old Paul Duffield (FRE DEF $475k)

Over to you community – what significance did you extract from the game?

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Chris

Quiet about Clancee would you. Only 3% of coaches have sniffed him out yet 😉

Hazey1977

yup…ssshhhhhhhhh!!!!!!!!!!!

Realist

That's more than 3,000+ with him before his first NAB game. I don't think its much of a secret Chris

@LekBlog

Been in my team since day one, talked about him in my video then cut it out in case he didn't live up to my predictions…he exceeded them

medadsson

If he stays in best 22 he is a must … maybe :). many missing though.

Kev

Any bloke, especially a defender, who stands up in the preseason is going to get noticed and discussed

ben

How do you see the percentages??

General Soreness

Supercoach gold, research, coaches choice.

Gold Rush

Just threw Salemi on mi pizza, can't wait to blast him out tmrw – gone, flushed, terminated.

@Da_Mad_Irishman

He is now rumoured to be seething after the MCG announced significant reductions to the price of hot chips and pies this week. Never has he rued his departure from the Melbourne Football Club more.

Quality as always Jock

Will

Which two do i picl out of Martin, Deliedo or Goddard.

pauly walnuts

all 3 mate, there will be heaps of cows about,so lock in the premos

Jakovich

Yeah would love to have all three, and envisage all three in my side at the end of year, but if u take all three now you may miss out on one the value picks available to us in the forward line like D.Swan, D.Smith, T.Mitch, J.Ziebell, L.Dahlhaus.

Kev

Stuff the value selections imo. If you can afford 3 blokes who will be top 6 forwards end of the year I say go for it.

t_woof

I don't agree with Dahlhaus, as he's a spud in my eyes (burnt me late last year with his 70's).

But the others i do agree with.

Finding myself wanting so many of those 400-500K forwards….but know i cannot go in with too many….. Swan, Ziebell, Mitchell, Motlop, Bontempelli……

Hazey

I’m a passionate Roo’s man and will happily eat my words, but I’m not sold on Ziebs! Always a suspension risk with his hardness.

Jakovich

I am going with Dusty and Lids personally.
Have been shying away from Essendon players for the moment til i know what is going on.

But Dusty should be the big one this year and could be jumping a rung or two in the categories.
Then choosing one of the 'future SC hall of famers' Goddard and Deledio is tough. Both are ultra consistent and are hard to split given their career scoring patterns and both averaged in the 102/103 bracket last year and expect the same this year. But it is Lids for me.

Donavan

Gotta pick Goddard.

With the ASADA thing hanging over 75% of his team, he will be an absolute go to player if the others are outted.

If nothing happens with ASADA thing, then its Goddard as usual.

Jakovich

I reckon Melbourne have thrown us two pieces of gold tonight.
Ben Newton gets about 58 SC pts in the first half and gets a rest.
Then Aaron Vandenberg gets subbed on and nuts 69 SC pts in the second half.

Liked what I saw and both look physically ready to step up and contribute to not only the Dees, but also for our SC sides.

pauly walnuts

vandernberg still needs to be upgraded from the rookie list,but as JR said at the top he is ready made to make an impact

t_woof

Pauly – I don't think there is too much drama re rookie elevation. Petracca and possibly Trengove will be placed on LT Injury List.

Derek

Vandenberg came on fresh in second half, hot day and most were getting tired

Tantalus

Clancee of the no-flow. In 2011, scores 100's in pre season then didn't play. When he eventually did, then averaged 50-60 for an on and off half season. Pure bac back then. Last year back to being a pure bac.and back to averaging 50-60 & only playing half a year. No Ibbotson and poor Duffield gone, he's back to a bac & 50's again.
Wish the 3% the best of luck but personally, not endowed with the appropriately sized macadamias & can do without the torment.

MJ

He was injured last year vs 2013 when he was fit and a season-long keeper in defence. But skip him if you want, makes winning that much easier for us 3% 😉

Patrick

Keeper as a fwd 2013

Rocksta

I’ve been a 3% er for about 5 weeks now.
Bloody annoyed he’s come into the spotlight.
Can’t go wrong at that price. I reckon he’ll get to $420K odd

t_woof

Spot on MJ.

Donavan

Salem – out, Hogan – In

Derek

Hogan will be a star

Mike

Just not in supercoach? A very big and young key forward doesn't exactly scream ton to me.

PJ8

At $130k he will generate enough cash to trade out mid season. The Dees will go to him all the time, can take a contested grab. Averaging 75 will be fine with me.

Mike

Well he's in my team atm, purely on the basis that he'll always get a game, and the 55-65 points he gets will be better than a donut if the bench is needed. If he averages 75 I'd be surprised and very pleased.

Kev

Agree Mike. Big, young, hulking, KPF… reminds me of Boyd/Patton in their first years. Hogan debuting a bit older than those blokes but VFL is a far cry from AFL, not to mention the gorillas that'll be hanging off him. He's an absolute last resort for me. He'll make cash easy, but it'll be a slow burn

t_woof

Hogan shouldn't have been out of your team Donavan. Lock F7.

Agree with PJ8.

Kev, i think Hogan moves much better than Patton and Boyd. The one thing that really impressed me last night was his work rate. For a bloke that has never played a H&A AFL game, he was still working hard late in the game……was 30c plus there too.

It's a shame former top draft picks at that club didn't have his work rate.

Phil

Yeah have to agree with twoof there he is not as stay at home forward as Patton and Boyd and I'd also say he has grown into his body already (does that make sense) than them too. In VFL he averaged 96 SC, I know the standard is a lot different but he is also 2 years older now. I reckon a 75 average is beyond him.

Phil

Isn't beyond him I mean

throttlefinger

Expert analysis as always, Jock.

Got some good glimpses of the Dees rooks. One game though. Roos is a crafty one so need to see who he has in Nab 3 to put anyone in concrete. Excited by Newton but need to see more. Same with Hogan. Reverse for Salem. But the worm can turn. See if he takes his lumps and comes back stronger.

paul

dont make Clancee the over flow

Mr Jitters

Wines or A. swallow please people?

PJ8

Ollie by a street

Tyler

What's everyone's thoughts on Jed Bews from Geelong?

PJ8

I wouldn't but thats just my opinion.

Kev

Best 22?

fatboyfat7

I had him on the bench for about have a last year and even when he played was never a good scorer, Might get more game time this year but better options out there.

t_woof

Not from what i've seen.

Do like the look of D.Lang though.

PJ8

I didn't see the game but AFL.com.au has Newton playing 86% game time ???

Those who watched, is this a mistake?

The_Kraken

Definitely a mistake, was subbed out at HT. Started with a bang, was in the thick of it early, fingers crossed he's this year's Dom Tyson at an almost identical starting price

PJ8

Excellent news! Have had a spot for one of those $200k mids (Newton, Cripps, Biggs, NVB, Acres) and have been waiting for one to put their hand up. Newton leading the group at the moment now.

One of the others will have a good game and then I will probably swap though haha

Super_supercoach

He got a knock to the head and a small cut above his right eye and was escorted from the ground by trainers about 5-minutes before half time. Looked good though similar form to the 100+ he got in the real stuff a year or so ago.
I don't think Salem will have the much touted 'deliveryman' role looked more like a lockdown on the small fwd role in my Telly.

Micky Johnson!!! Had back replacement surgery in the off season and looks brand new.

t_woof

Was thinking the same thing when i saw the post game stat's.

Agree with Kraken, it's definitely a mistake.

Pauly Walnuts

Subbed off at 1/2 time

G

Who should I get in place of Salem?

Already got hogan, karnizes, Daniel & lambert

Mike

Try thinking for yourself.

vcloophole

Try nor being a prick and actually offer some advice

G

Thanks vcloophole

vcloophole

In answer to your question, if you haven't got him already, switch Salem to Nathan Krakouer. Word from Port is that he is very much in their plans as a creative ball user off half back. 🙂

PJ8

Maybe Mitch Clark. Geelong went to him as many times as they did Hawkins. Will be a target. I think he may score well enough to make cash and trade at the byes.

Similar to JJK 2 years ago.

G

Thanks PJ8

Kev

Quick to jump off, G… Wait and see who stands up this weekend

G

Yes, should wait and see. 🙂 thanks

Muddie moose

Wouldn’t just be trading him out of our sides yet because of one match we need to look at the whole pre season and even last year to get the full picture
Had the sub vest last year and had two decent games before this one and probably be a round one starter just like in the main season can just drop sombody for having the odd stinker or just chase last weeks points doing this Can result whole bunch of kea position players that will bust out amazing scores but consistently give you puss conpared to sombody who will give you decent scores every week with the odd off game

G

Thanks muddie sound advice

pauly walnuts

I have Martin,Deledio,Goddard,Swan,Clark,Karnizes,Steele,Laverde but like everyone else I'm waiting on NAB form before i make a final decision

PJ8

I almost have the same fwds. I have Hogan instead of Karnizes

Derek

Hogan is ahead by a mile

Cezza93

Wouldnt peak to hard on Hogan. Young power forwards are never high point scorers

Bellybuttonfluff

Is A Saad st Kilda going to get game time? Possible cash cow?

Cezza93

Rookie listed there champ someone would have to go down with injury. However i have ehard a report this morning that Markworth went down with a long term. Could be his opportunity for elevation.

General Soreness

There were already spots available at St Kilda for upgrade. They are just keeping their powder dry like most clubs, not requirement to upgrade yet.

Cezza93

Thanks Chief

Cezza93

Whose this is reference to champ?

t_woof

Right now Mitch Clark looks the better option at that 150'ish price tag.

Gogonzau

Not likely.

@t_woof

Who is then gogo?

Prestia

Is Adcock a good option, he dipped in form last year but the previous two years he averaged 90? Thoughts

NateCrows

im thinking the same to free up some coin. Could score well.

Cezza93

Follow your gut mate, the senior defenders always get the job done.

@jstorm311

Sensational use of the Queens English while describing the self acclaimed Prince. The Dalai Lama is under threat of being the spiritual leader of the earth…..

carlashirley90

Haha teams a mess atm, just have to wait on rookies before round one to see what cash is left for premiums and mid prices. This year proves to be most difficult

Premium locks for me (this year I consider $450k a premium for defenders)
These players I won't change

K.Simpson, J.Kelly
G.Ablett, S,Selwood,
N.Naitinui
B.Deledio, D,Swan

Midpricers

C.Pearce could be risky but 75-85 is his range if truely fit and flying
NVB will reach 400k easy 450k tops
D.Rich small chance of being a 100 player, especially with many ball magnets Brisbane have now.
Will still ton up from time to time but I predict 85-95 kinda range before byes.

Fourbells

Carla,
I think you have nailed this on the head. From what we have seen so far, there will not be too many rookies making a round 1 start.
I hope I am proved wrong, but there is going to be a lot of head scratching come round 1 if this is the case.

Kev

S. Selwood has had no preseason due to ankle surgery in December. While it looks he'll play round 1 according to this article today http://www.afl.com.au/news/2015-03-06/preseason-f… (right down the bottom), stuffed ankle = no preseason fitness training.

carlashirley90

ty Kev I was hoping it was similar as last year keeping him under wraps

t_woof

Agree with you Carla. Have found this season to be the most difficult in years to get myself set on a team & structure. Finding myself completely changing my side around every time. But like yourself, has been around half a dozen main stays in every team.

They being; Hodge, C.Pearce, Ablett, Rocky, A.Swallow, Leuenberger & Hogan.

Others that have been in 'most' teams; Hibberd, Burgoyne, Ibbo, Griffen & Naitanui.

carlashirley90

Nice bunch you have there T woof 🙂
I tried Hodge last year and got the slow start with a little injury but he came good after byes

YouBloodyRippa

Ruck strategies. I have Goldy and NicNat, with Read on the bench looping to Belch fwd as cover. I see plenty of upside in NicNat, but dont trust his body (or Belch's). Thinking of spending an extra 100k to upgrade Belch to Lycett. Should be good cover for NicNat plus more opportunity with Cox gone and Sinclairs minor injury at WCE. Worth an extra 100k? I'd be interested to hear any thoughts

General Soreness

I like Lycett but cannot consider him at his price on the back of 8 SC relevant games. Belch is not an option for me either not including that he might not play with ASADA issue. You could always keep the $50K in the skyrocket to fix as required and do not have any cover.

derek

I have heard some good things about Durdin from the Kangaroos. He is very akward as a RUCK/DEF…he has no-one to swing with? but I am hoping that he might get a game as a tall defender and offer some coverage for our SC teams. $147k

t_woof

Purely as 'cover' i wouldn't spend 400K unless you believe Lycett can hit 95 > and be a keeper.

Interested in how West Coast structure up come round one.

– Darling is out for the early rounds.
– Sinclair injured
– Mackenzie gone for the season

Where does McGovern play? Does he go down back to cover the loss of Mackenzie, or does he play forward to cover the loss of Darling in the early rounds?

If Sinclair is sound, then perhaps Sinclair pushes forward to be that extra tall option and McGovern covers the absent Mackenzie down back.

Sinclair out for round one, does Nic Nat play more of a forward role and Lycett takes on more of the ruck duties? Very interesting for mine…….

I reckon there is a WCE tall that could explode early, but would take some balls to select him.

General Soreness

Thanks Jock, he looks a beauty and at the front of the $200K+ crew at the moment for those considering $200K+ mids.

"If spiritual hard ball gets were measured by champion data this bloke would reach Ablett proportions."

"He is now rumoured to be seething after the MCG announced significant reductions to the price of hot chips and pies this week. Never has he rued his departure from the Melbourne Football Club more."

THIS IS GOLD! No other Fantasy Site in Australia has this sort of insight, relevance and comedy. Therefore applying American logic (sorry Throtts) it makes this site the WORLD CHAMPION OF FANTASY SITES!

Mozz

My backline is seeming extremely mid-priced. I have Newnes, Langdon AND L.Mcdonald AND C.Pearce with H.Shaw as D1. This is surely too many mid-pricers for the defenders yeah?

JoeWoolcock

Mate I don't reckon there's any right or wrong in terms of def structure this year. I'm going similar to you actually.

t_woof

Hey Mozz,

I would look at upgrading one of Langdon or McDonald to a premium if you have the cash.

Shaw, Premo, Newnes, Langdon/McDonald, Pearce, Rookie ain't a bad structure at all.

Huggy

Question community. If Essendon players of 2012 get rubbed out – does that mean all their "top up"players come into super coach reckoning at rookie prices? If so – their NAB cup matches hold quite a lot of significance

Kev

Wait and see, Huggy. Wait and see. Personally I hope that doesn't happen, be shocking to see every single team out there with two dozen Essendon "rookies"

t_woof

Good point Huggy.

I would have enough Lolz's to last me the rest of 2015 if they all get rubbed out.

NateCrows

I am really worried about the backline rookies. The strategy im going for will likely put 1-2 on the field.
Im not confident even with NAB exposure any of these kids will make it.

Hamling looks like the one most likely for a lock. T. Clurey heard he will play as port have some back issues at present. But goddard, long, rainbow vickers, wigg, j.kelly, maynard, kolo, fuller could all be named rnd 1 and only play that game…

Maybe safer going for brown or tippett.
May have to downgrade 1 premium in forward line to inviest in at lest 1 more for D5 or 6

Kev

Careful on Clurey mate. He's not best 22 and is only cover for the injured Trengrove. The article a while back had him only missing round 1, his recovery might have changed since then.

Reckon the latecomers haven't quite twigged on the average defensive premiums on offer. Seeing a lot of teams in the recent RMT thread with 2-3 500k defenders. Waste of money

Doc2Drej

I’m running 0 500k plus defenders. I’ve got 2 in the 400-500k price bracket, 2 in the 300-400k bracket, 1 in the 200-300k bracket, 1 playing rookie and 2 benched rookies

t_woof

Referring to Simpson and Malecski Kev?

King Menace

Thoughts on Henderson, Seedsman, Langdon and Pearce

t_woof

Few traps there KM.

For now, only going with Clancee.

I think Seedsman is a good player….but interrupted pre season is far from ideal.

Doc2Drej

Just started and would like some team help!

1 of Taylor/Yarran/Docherty/Higgins/Thomoson/McGovern/Mayes

2 of

Goddard/Deledio/Bartel/Martin

1 of

Newton/Cripps/Biggs/NVB

1 of

Jaksch/Pearce

1 of

J Martin/Garlett/Knights

Thanks

NateCrows

Higgins
Bartel, Martin
NVB
Pearce
J Martin

Phil

Taylor
Martin Goddard
NVB
Pearce
Martin

Cyril is Delicious

Newton or NVB?

t_woof

Very tough question…….i'd save that until the NAB series is completed.

derek

There is a strong case for selecting Mid-price players. It all comes down to value for money.

If this great game had unlimited trades each week, or in fact had NIL trades (therefore you had the same team all year) the Mid-price strategy would work perfectly, but of course we have 30 precious trades to make each year and this is where the mid-pricers will hurt you if you have too many of them because it will to too hard to convert them to premiums as required.

However, my point is this: say we all have $9mil to spend on 22 players. Assuming that most of us will have 8 players on the bench costing about $1mil in total. Say a good score in SC is 2500pts in a round. If you divide 2500 into $9million it works out about 2.67pts per $10,000 spent on a player. JPK would have to score 163SC pts to justify his price, where a mid-price like C Pearce would have to score 74SC pts and a $117k Rookie would only need score 31SC points to justify his price.

It won't take you to long (I have done this on a spread sheet) to list all the players and their prices, and multiply the formula and compare it to what a fair season average for each player will actually be, to realise that the Value is in the cheap/mid price players.

I actually built an "optimum team' based on this formula and players in the $350-$409k (scoring between 93 and 106 SC points) came out to be the best by far. All the stars of our game were far to overpriced to be selected, and the rookies didn't spend all the $9million available, even though they game best value, you can't have money left in the bank.

The problem with this theory is that the game isn't just one week (many of us are selecting our team as it Round 1 is the goal). Players will have price adjustments that will increase the value of your team, where by Round 15 most good team values should be around $14million. This then gives each player an adjusted Point value of 1.923 per $10,000 value (allowing for bench cover). This would mean JPK nead only score 117Sc to justify his place. By now the Optimum Team would include players averaged at $591,000 (all at or very close to premium Level).

What I have learnt from this exercise, is you have to build your Premium team now, one that you would like to have by round 14, look at the run home, know what team value you will need to have increased to and try and get as many of those players in your team now (rock solid keepers). then calculate how many trades you will require to get the others in place, factoring in the price increases required. it is all about building value and reducing the average Point value required to reach a standard 2500SC score.

carlashirley90

Nice work!
now all we need is no injuries 2014 was very high on drop dead leg syndrome

King Menace

Can people comment who they are considering in their backline? Which players are in your current backline?

@emhoy

I have Enright, Newes, Vlastin, Pearce, Smetts, Goddard (Sadd, Rainbow). I want to keep this structure so Vlastin could be swapped for a langdon or Sutcliffe just depends who does the best preseason. Also Smetts could change as well.

t_woof

Current Def Shortlist:

Simpson
Hibberd
Shaw
Burgoyne
Hodge
Newnes
Ibbotson
Pearce
Then any bloody rookies that want to put their hand's up!

derek

Simpson, Shaw, Newnes, Kelly/Enright, C pearce, Goddard (Viojo, Saad)

Whitecross will replace C Pearce if he looks like being in Hawks best 22.

derek

Lumumba looked ok yesterday, I have him on watchlist if he plays ok again.

King Menace

Thanks guys!

Dwain

Anyone considering Josh Kennedy in fwd line and or Trelaor for mid field ?

King Menace

Can I have peoples thoughts on my backline?
Smith, Shaw, Newnes, Seedsman, Pearce, Goddard, Saad, Newman.

Phil

Smith: I like him, potential to be best scoring defender.
Shaw: solid scoring history, misses a few games. Not bad selection.
Newnes: Everyone has him, I don't think he'll do as well as Swallow last year but should go around 90 which is enough.
Seedsman: not for me, he would have had to smash it in Nab for me to consider but I think he is injured again.
Pearce: price is right for what he can deliver. In my team pending Round 1 selection.
Goddard: most popular rookie for good reason, must have at this point.
Saad: if named Round 1, why not?
Newman: injured, won't pay Round 1 if at all

Andrew

What’s your thoughts on Devon Smith. One of my favourite players at GWS and was excellent towards the end of the season.
He was in my initial team but I’ve since swapped him out.

Thoughts?

Bog rat

Had him locked in since day 1

Will

Thoughts on Paddy McCartin?