Has Lekdog cracked part of the Supercoach code?

Published by Lekdog on

Community, I have spent the last week or so in the lab working on a new formula that could help crack the Supercoach code.

LekdogThis formula however, applies only to a small percentage of AFL players. This means two things. Firstly it means that not every player the formula applies to is Supercoach relevant.  And secondly it means that this formula appears to be quite accurate to its specific audience.

The Idea

What I believe I’ve done is discover how players will perform when they are traded to/drafted by, a new club.

Community, I had a theory that players thrive when they move clubs. Obviously this isn’t always applicable, take Colin Sylvia for example, but for the most part I believed that players were more appealing in Supercoach terms after moving clubs.

The System

Players who I have ultimately taken into consideration are all currently on an AFL list and have moved to a new club since the introduction of the expansion clubs. This means Gary Ablett and the rest of the original Gold Coast founders were included in the calculation.

I have also broken down the collection of players into four categories:

  • Category 1 – Defenders: consists of DEF and DEF/MID players.
  • Category 2 – Midfielders: consists of MID only players.
  • Category 3 – Ruckmen: consists of RUCK and RUCK/FWD players.
  • Category 4 – Forwards: consists of FWD and FWD/MID players.

Finally, all prices I refer to are based on Supercoach 2015 starting prices.

The Numbers

To begin with I found the difference in average between a players final year at an old club and their first year at a new club. Unsurprisingly to me, I found that players in their first year at a new club see an increase of 7 points to their average when compared to their final season at their previous club.

This means that on average if a player averaged 80 in his final season at a previous club, he should average 87 in his first season at his new club.

I then broke down the first year average increase by position.

  • Midfielder only players see a massive increase of 19.48 to their average when moving to a new team.
  • Ruckmen are the next best off seeing an increase of 11.46 to their average.
  • Forwards see a slight increase in output of 3.52.
  • Finally Defenders see the smallest increase in their first year at a new club with an increase of 0.44 points.
Position(s) Final Season (Old Club) First Season (New Club) Change
DEF & DEF/MID 80 80.44 +0.44
FWD & FWD/MID 80 83.52 +3.52
RUCK & RUCK/FWD 80 91.46 +11.46
MID 80 99.48 +19.48

Example breakdown for the change in average a player sees in their first year at a new club.

On average a player’s spike in performance in his first year at a new club carries on into his second year.

  • I found that the average change in point production was 5.12 for players in their second year at a new club.
  • Midfielders tend to plateau after their first season at a new club with a decrease of -0.19 while forwards and defenders see a slight increase in output of 1.14 and 1.13 respectively.
  • The biggest benefactors of their second season at a new club are Ruckmen, who average an increase of 26.86.
  • I’m not sure as to why Ruckmen see such an increase but it’s likely caused by a combination of finally becoming the number one ruck and increased time on ground.
Position(s) First Season (New Club) Second Season (New Club) Change
DEF & DEF/MID 80.44 81.57 +1.13
FWD & FWD/MID 83.52 84.66 +1.14
RUCK & RUCK/FWD 91.46 118.32 +26.86
MID 99.48 99.29 -0.19

Example breakdown for the change in average a player sees in their second year at a new club.

Finally I’m going to break down the third and fourth year numbers.

Position(s) Second Season (New Club) Third Season (New Club) Change
DEF & DEF/MID 81.57 84.53 +2.96
FWD & FWD/MID 84.66 81.59 -3.07
RUCK & RUCK/FWD 118.32 111.29 -7.03
MID 99.29 99.58 +0.29

  Example breakdown for the change in average a player sees in their third year at a new club.

Position(s) Third Season (New Club) Fourth Season (New Club) Change
DEF & DEF/MID 84.53 87.56 +3.03
FWD & FWD/MID 81.59 n/a n/a
RUCK & RUCK/FWD 111.29 97.26 -14.03
MID 99.58 98.85 -0.73

          Example breakdown for the change in average a player sees in their Fourth year at a new club.

The Conclusion

The numbers show that the most consistent players who get better with age are defenders, in a year in which we are lacking quality down back we might be able to look at some players who have moved clubs and be offered some security.

Forwards will jump around a bit in output but overall provide more points at a new club than their old club.

Midfield only players if you can get them in their first season are a massive positive. Tyson, Ward, and Ebert to name a few are all players who saw massive increases in output in their first year at a new club.

Ruckmen are great value in their first two years, with a total jump of almost 40 points in their first two seasons they provide unmatchable output…if they can stay on the park.


Position by Position

I’m now going to break down each position and attempt to predict how the trends listed above will affect players who moved clubs in the 2014 off-season.


Defenders see almost no increase to their average in their first season; on average this is a miniscule 0.44 points per game.

In their second year they improve upon their first year average by 1.13 or 1.57 total since joining the new club.

During their third season defenders averages climb by a further 2.96 points per game (4.53 total more points than their previous club).
During their fourth season at a new club defenders averages jump by 3.03 on their third year average for a total increase of 7.56 since joining their new club.

Position(s) 1st Season Change 2nd Season Change 3rd Season Change 4th Season Change
DEF & DEF/MID 0.44 1.13 2.96 3.03

Using these numbers we can project the following…

1st year defender projections

  • Matthew Dick (Carlton) n/a
  • Cameron Delaney (Geelong) n/a
  • Jordan Kelly (Western Bulldogs) n/a
  • Joel Hamling (Western Bulldogs) n/a
  • Taylor Hunt (Richmond) 60+0.44= 60.44
  • Kyle Cheney (Adelaide) 70.3+0.44= 70.74
  • Sam Frost (Melbourne) 55.7+0.44= 56.14
  • Kristian Jaksch (Carlton) 49.2+0.44= 49.64
  • Travis Varcoe (Collingwood) 66.4+0.44= 66.84
  • Heritier Lumumba (Melbourne) 77.6+0.44= 78.04
  • James Gwilt (Essendon) 72.3+0.44= 72.74
  • Joel Patful (GWS) 69.6+0.44= 70.04
  • Nick Malceski (Gold Coast) 105.4+0.44= 105.84
  • James Frawley (Hawthorn) 77.9+0.44= 80.34
  • Shaun Higgins (North Melbourne) 76.5+0.44= 76.94

2nd Season Projections

  • Shaw will average 92.6 (first season at new club)+1.13= 93.73
  • Docherty will average 76.8+1.13= 77.93
  • Everitt will average 81.2+1.13= 82.33

3rd Season Projections

  • Broughton will average 75.6+2.96= 78.56
  • Chaplin will average 69.43+2.96= 78.26

4th Season Projections

  • Davis will average 59.5+3.03= 62.53


During their first year forward eligible players increase their average by 3.52 points, this is the largest spike forwards experience.
During their second year at a new club forwards increase their average again by 1.14 points for a total increase of 4.66 at their new club.

In their third year at a new club Forwards dip by -3.07 points taking their total average change 1.59 at their new club.
Unfortunately there are no current players who fit the criteria to give us a prediction for any change in average for the fourth year at a new club.

Position(s) 1st Season Change 2nd Season Change 3rd Season Change 4th Season Change
FWD & FWD/MID 3.52 1.14 -3.07 n/a

Using these numbers we can project the following…

1st year forward projections

  • Nathan Krakouer (Port Adelaide) n/a
  • Mitch Clark (Geelong) n/a
  • Tim Membrey (St. Kilda) 40+3.52= 43.52
  • Mitch Robinson (Brisbane) 83.1+3.52= 86.62
  • Sam Blease (Geelong) 33+3.52= 36.52
  • Liam Jones (Carlton) 57.3+3.52= 60.82
  • Adam Cooney (Essendon) 80.7+3.52= 84.22
  • Rhys Stanley (Geelong) 70.9+3.52= 74.42
  • Allen Christensen (Brisbane) 90.6+3.52= 94.12
  • Jack Crisp (Collingwood) 85.7+3.52= 89.22
  • Jeff Garlett (Melbourne) 48.2+3.52= 51.72
  • Jarrad Waite (North Melbourne) 91.5+3.52= 95.02
  • Tom Boyd (Western Bulldogs) 44.6+3.52= 48.12

2nd Season Projections

  • Chapman will average 96 (first season at new club)+1.14= 97.14
  • Franklin will average 99.9+1.14= 101.04
  • Betts will average 79.4+1.14= 80.54

3rd Season Projections

  • Pedersen will average 78.7-3.07= 75.63


Midfielders are the bulk of our scorers and in their first season at a new club they can provide us with some pretty high scores.

  • On average in their first season at a new club midfielders increase their output by 19.48.
  • During their second season at a new club midfielders averages tend to remain the same dipping by -0.19.
  • The third season at a new club sees most midfielders make up for their slight dip in the previous year by increasing their average by 0.29.
  • The fourth year in a midfielder’s career at a new club sees a second dip, this time by -0.73.
Position 1st Season Change 2nd Season Change 3rd Season Change 4th Season Change
MID 19.48 -0.19 0.29 -0.73

Using these numbers we can project the following…

1st year Midfielder projections

  • Kane Lucas (West Coast) 47.6+19.48= 67.08
  • Andrew Raines (Gold Coast) 49+19.48= 68.48
  • Ben Newton (Melbourne) 40+19.48= 59.48
  • Shane Biggs (Western Bulldogs) 48.7+ 19.48= 68.18
  • Mitch Hallahan (Gold Coast) 64.5+19.48= 83.98
  • Ryan Griffen (GWS) 98.7+19.48= 118.18
  • Mark Whiley (Carlton) 84+19.48= 103.48
  • Levi Greenwood (Collingwood) 94.2+19.48= 113.68
  • Dayne Beams (Brisbane) 115.5+19.48= 134.98
  • Jono O’Rourke (Hawthorn) 38.4+19.48= 57.88

Further projections

  • Goddard will average 102.1-3.07= 99.03
  • I don’t feel that it is necessary to project the future scores of 2nd-4th year midfielders, as players in that position tend to plateau.


  • 1st year at new clubs rucks average 11.46 more points, take away McIntosh’s first year where he played no games and the average goes to 20.25.
  • Second season rucks see an increase of 26.86 on their first season average taking the total average increase since leaving their old club to 38.32 (47.11 taking out McIntosh’s -100 first season).
  • In their third year rucks take a dip of -7.03 making their average since leaving their first club 31.29 higher (40.08 without McIntosh).
  • Rucks take another dip of -14.03 in their fourth year at a new club making their net increase 17.26 (26.05 without McIntosh) on their final season at their old club.
Position(s) 1st Season Change 2nd Season Change 3rd Season Change 4th Season Change
RUCK & RUCK/FWD 11.46 26.86 -7.03 -14.03

Using these numbers we can project the following…

1st year ruck projections

  • Luke Lowden 82+20.25= 102.25
  • Patrick Ryder 101.1+20.25= 121.35
  • Jonathon Giles 73.8+20.25= 94.05
  • Shaun McKernan 47.5+20.25= 67.75

2nd Season Projections

  • Mumford will average 114.2 (first season at new club)+26.86= 141.06. In Mumford’s case we can look back and see that he has done this before, in his first season at Sydney Mumford increased his average by 39.2 followed by a further 20 on top of that in his second season.
  • Hampson will average 75.9+26.86= 102.76
  • McEvoy 89.8+26.86= 116.66

3rd Season Projections

  • McIntosh will average 83.8 (second season at new club)-7.03= 76.77
  • Martin will average 111.7-7.03= 104.68

4th Season Projections

  • Maric will average 99.7 (third season at new club)-14.03= 85.07

Projections Summary

Community obviously all of these projections aren’t going to be 100% accurate but the results when tested against other years are quite consistently close, within a bell curve.

These numbers should be used as a guideline more than anything and the attached image can be used for more information. Click here for attached image

Some players that excite me based on my predictions are Griffen, Mumford, McEvoy, Greenwood, Beams and Cooney.

I hope this article has provided some information that can be used in your Supercoach success.


Twitter: @lekblog


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When I pick up my jaw from the floor Lek I'll comment further. You absolutely smashed that article and dropped some serious numbers.

I agree with you on rucks though, some tantalising numbers there but I can't see Ryder averaging 121 if he is rucking in tandem with Lobbe. Likewise, Lowden's 82 average is from one game.

Brilliant Lekdog


I wish i could make considerations for whether they'll be sharing the ruck role or whether they'd only played one game but alas I'm not smart enough.

Thanks for reading!


Amazing research Lekdog. A completely different way to look at things. I was never going to consider Dayne Beams due to him moving clubs, but this opens my eyes a bit more and now will consider. An already Supercoach gun could turn into a Gablett year.


It did the same for me good sir


Great work, always thought this to be case but never did the hard yards. The three newbies at Brisbane will be a case in point. Be interesting to know how 'non commenting' forth coming free agents have fared in their last years i.e Buddies last year at Hawthorn and perhaps, most likely, Dangerfield's last year at Adelaide.


Agreed, I'm fairly sure they dip slightly when "not commenting" Ablett dropped from about 140 in his penultimate season at the cats to 129 in his final season there.

Something to think about with Dangerfield maybe


brilliant stuff lekdog!


Thanks mate


brings a tear to my eye lekdog. Absolutely beautiful.


Strong theory Lekdog but I think that there is a significant difference in the 'increase %' for players who previously averaged less than 70 compared to those who previously averaged above 80 and also players who have played 5 years+ compared to less than 5 years. Factor in those 2 points and you'll win the money every week.


Agreed mate, biggest jumps tend to be the blokes who go from 40-50 up to 90-100 followed by 80-90 averaging blokes who jump just over 100.

If you can find the players who will jump from 40-90 (newton maybe) then you're on the money.


Which players in the Backline should we be considering? I'm not sure on Hibberd with his hamstring and I'm not too Shaw on Shaw. Is Hodge or Burgoyne still sc relevant? Is Smith and Malceski worth their price tags? I currently have Smith, Shaw, Newnes, Seedsman then rookies.


hmmmmm, good question T-mac, i think you should probably consider not being bad at supercoach


I think Shaw is a solid selection, Burgoyne dominated the all star game the other night. I don't think you can justify Smith or Malceski but if you're going to select one I'd lean towards Malc (neither will start for my team though).

Don't tell Higgo or Jock but I am considering Higgins now and players of that ilk, even Fisher isn't looking a terrible option.


Simply magnificent Lek! Pure genius this stuff!


Thank you Chicko


Wow Lek, superb. More stats to ponder. Will need all the help we can get to get that backline we want.


I'll try and add more years to the spreadsheet to get a clearer understanding, hopefully that will supply more answers for our back line woes

I N Pieman

Magnificent research Lek. Has helped me put a line through Rockcliffe & Ward. With the arrival of another point pig who as your research has indicated should increase in scoring would mean a negative impact on them. And that would make them overpriced & not worth picking. Thanks Lek that was a ball tearer.


No worries Pie, i wouldn't think Rocky or Ward would drop in output by much but I don't think they can increase their averages this year.

General Soreness

Rocky doesnt need to increase!



Kent Price

Hi Lekdog do u think I should have Cochin in my team this year pls help


Kent mate, happy to hear from you again. No Cotch for me, if you want a Tiger in your team Dusty is the way to go.

General Soreness

Hair is still too perfect, until its short back and sides or a nude nut, cannot be considered.


Great stuff Lekdog…Did you miss Yeo? From this data I believe he would be very relevant given the lack of defence options this year. The premo's suck, the mid pricers are injury prone and the rookies have limited to no job security. Yeo could be the man


Yeo – Second year at WC. 65.7 + 1.13 = 66.83

Important to use this along with your own research Phil. Docherty increased his average by 14.2 in his first year after moving clubs


Docherty increased by 24 Kev, so it's all about picking the right blokes. The major point of the article was to highlight general trends and act as a guideline. So you are right some of your own research is required.

Keep up the good work


Yeo was in the attached spreadsheet mate, increased average by 3.1 in his first year, should increase slightly again, had him in the defenders section.

Article didn't highlight every player except for first years.

Thanks for reading mate




Always been a crow. As an option – 481k is overpriced looking at some of the tripe he served up from rounds 6-15


Priced at max, positives are that he ended the year in a massive upward trend. i had a look at him but can't justify him at that price just yet


I think you've gone a little bit far Lekdog and spent too much time in the lab, cant see any of this as relevant. Then again if beams averages 134 (yeh 134)…I will shout you a pepsi!


Each to their own mate, I mean the numbers are there, there is a general improvement when players move club it's just picking which ones will have the biggest increase.

The projections don't take into consideration changes of roles, current rosters at the new club etc. But it's undeniable that the trend is an increase in points at a new club.

If Beamsy averages that high I'll let you mate haha


Might have to jump on the Whiley bandwagon…

Honestly though, which back line combo do you guys think would score better:

Thompson and Sheehan

Thompson and Rohan

Docherty and Sheehan

Docherty and Rohan

McDonald and KKolo

Seedsman and KKolo

Mayes and KKolo

McDonald and Seedsman

McDonald and Mayes

Seedsman and Mayes

Feedback would be appreciated


The rest of my back line looks like this:
Hibbert, Newnes,???, ???, Watson, rookie (rookie, rookie)
Currently the 3 rookies I’m looking at are Shaun Edwards, Hugh Goddard and Brandon Maynard. If anyone knows any other defensive rookies worth selecting that would be very helpful as well


Biggest potential for mine is Docherty and Rohan IF Rohan get's Malceskis role (he is training in that role at the moment)


word at the swans camp, Jetta will fill the role…


join the CHAMPIONS 179981


Thanks for the invite UDA.


Great stuff Lekdog! I put another challenge to you – would love to see some data on pre and post bye with some of these – do the new recruits start like a house on fire, then tail off, or do they start slowly to get used to new team then fly home? Could prove crucial in trade strategies.


I have some of that available and I'll try and put something together for you


great tactic lekdog! Was wondering what I should do for my M6. I see a lot of people going for someone around the 500k mark but i was thinking of getting someone like Newton or Cripps. Is this too many rookies onfeild?


I would prefer m7 to be a 200k player but if you can make it work m6 would be fine


There's no right or wrong way to play the game Scano. If you start with 3 midfield rookies and there's 3 awesome midfield rookies (and there the ones you had) you got the right structure. If there's only 2 good ones, you should of picked an extra premium. Use the NAB cup as a guide to see who the best rookies are.

Tyson at M6 last year, with Polec and Dunstan would have been the way to go but every years different.


Fantastic work.

This is why we need to be thinking about our teams now, not a week before round 1. Gold!

I predict that people who read this article and understand the depth of what is being said will increase their weekly SC score by at least 3.09%


I hadn’t considered Big Boy at the Hawks until now…… Second year, found out the hard way last year that the Hawks machine doesn’t like passengers and I think this year he is ready to step up as the lone wolf number 1 ruck. Will consider.


As will I mate, thanks for the feedback too


DEF- Simpson, Shaw, Newnes, Ibbotson, Pearce, Edwards. — manteit, goddard
MID- Ablett, Pendlebury, Kennedy, Wines, Crouch, Newton, Heeney, Boekhurst. — Smith, Atkins, Freeman
RUC- Goldstein, Leuenberger. — cox
FWD- Goddard, Martin, Swan, Mitchell, Bellchambers, Salem. — Daniel, Lambert

Thoughts? 1k left


Only blokes I'm not sold on are Mitchell, Bellchambers and Ibbotson


'While the Swans have a relatively healthy list heading into the NAB Challenge, the club has also been forced to hold back prized youngster Isaac Heeney with knee tendinitis.'

Would not pick up yet. I am thinking of waiting till he is guaranteed to play, as he will probably have a bit of a late start


Love it Lek great work!

Rocky vs no Rocky? Can someone please give me some reasons?


I'm not Rocky, I think Gablett and Pendles will suffice


I'm part of the minority that actually has Rocky cos I reckon the kids a freak. Whilst I understand the reasons for not starting him, I'm starting him for the same reason I start Gaz. If he smashes it early, it'll be a nightmare trying to get him in. If he doesn't, I'll merely sideways him to anyone
There's uncertainty over every player if you look hard enough. But by all reports he's had a good pre season and is the type of guy that will only get better with the captaincy I reckon.


Also, based on this, is Griffen a good option? The obvious worry is the tag.


Yes I'd say he's a good option (in my team) and if I were in charge I'd tag Ward over Griffen haha


I seriously think Jeremy McGovern will go big this year. With Darling done for at least half a season, McGovern will take his role and also, with Nic Nat taking over ruck duties full-time. Why not?


Not a terrible option, quite like him myself


Lek, your mind is simply just brilliant. And will admit that this was so chockfull of insight that I had to read twice just to make sure I digested it all properly.

Was leaning towards Beams and Griffen but this makes it a tilt. Docherty is another that I'm rating highly. Think he'll step it up with Walker and Simmo both aging (and not terribly well…sorry). Forwards isn't as tantalizing yet might give more attention on Garlett during NAB. And I'm considering Mummy, which I really wasn't before due to his price. Even if he comes relatively close to that 2nd year that would be a bargain.

You've done more than uncover SC Gold, my friend. Think you've dug deep and found SC diamonds. Well done!


Is only having 4 midfielders over 350k too little in the midfield? (Gaz, Rock, Pendles, Jelwood, Rich, NVB, Cripps, Boekhorst (Heeney, Freeman, Lambert))


No, at the start of the season it doesn't matter where your premiums are positioned, everyone will have 14 – 16 the spread doesn't matter! Just depends what starting positions rookies there are and what mid pricers will become premiums in your opinion

This year I am backing in 4 mid pricers all in my fwd line! Gamble but it is worth it (I pick 2 teams one with guns and rookies, the other a little adventurous)


Any chance of making the raw data available?


Hi lekdog,

Interesting read and I would imagine a enjoyable task!

Everyone seems to be talking about their DEF this year, but never seen Sucklings name! Second year back from injury, booming kick and prior to injury ave high 80s and I believe had a year at 90

Would much rather him over Higgins at a similar price


Thoughts on Clancee Pearce?


Best 22 is the issue with Clancee, played well out of midfield in intraclub club match yesterday in the A Team but as previously said there were a host of players absent. Almost forgot how good and long a kick he is. If he gets a regular run and plays well in NAB then he would have to be a goer but he did fall from favour last year. He is competing against Duffield, Ibbotson, Spurr and Sutcliffe for a spot in defence and a strong midfield Fyfe, Barlow, Mundy, Neale, Crowley etc. for a spot in the guts. If he gets a run he'd almost be a walk up start.

Gold Rush

Great Stuff Lekdog, thanks for the effort.


Newnes, lumumba, kk, Henderson, Buckley, Hamling (Edwards, Goddard)
Ablett, pendles, selwood, beams, wines, Newton, crips freeman (Atkins, krakoeur, lambert)
Nic nat, McEcoy (cox)
Goddard, Martin, swan, titch, templeton, Salem( hogan, laverde)

How’s it looking lads??? Apart from very thin in defence


Really don't like Lumumba has never been spectacular. Never averaged above 90 and for that price a player must be a keeper. I prefer a much safer option in Heath Shaw. Not sure where you will get the funds from maybe dowgrading Cripps to Heeney. Anyway apart from that like the team a couple of great PODs in McEvoy and Beams who I wouldn't have considered before reading this article.


Salem or Karnezis as F7 (potentially F6 if Hogan spuds it up)?? Both apparently smashing off season. save 50k though with karnezis. Although currently i do have Salem in my team



Go for whoever is named round 1! I'm hoping for Karnezis myself.


Got burned by Tele Karnezis in previous years. I'm no longer mysteriously moved by him.


Kick a#se stuff Lek.
Love those tasty Mid and Ruck projections.
McEvoy as a shrew POD anyone?


Has anyone else questioned your figures on Chaplin?


Great work Lekdog!! Amazing research!


Is it worth considering a few essendon rookies consedering the bans. They could see plenty of mins first few rounds..

Part 2 mids at a new club would u pick – o rourke if he can get in the best22 or mitch hallanhan ? Hawks will be keen to give a young midfielder a lot of time with hodge and mitchall getting on.


These projections make me feel a lot better about picking paddy, great stuff mate keep up the great work.


lmao – hopefully malceski comes good 😉