Community, I have spent the last week or so in the lab working on a new formula that could help crack the Supercoach code.

LekdogThis formula however, applies only to a small percentage of AFL players. This means two things. Firstly it means that not every player the formula applies to is Supercoach relevant.  And secondly it means that this formula appears to be quite accurate to its specific audience.

The Idea

What I believe I’ve done is discover how players will perform when they are traded to/drafted by, a new club.

Community, I had a theory that players thrive when they move clubs. Obviously this isn’t always applicable, take Colin Sylvia for example, but for the most part I believed that players were more appealing in Supercoach terms after moving clubs.

The System

Players who I have ultimately taken into consideration are all currently on an AFL list and have moved to a new club since the introduction of the expansion clubs. This means Gary Ablett and the rest of the original Gold Coast founders were included in the calculation.

I have also broken down the collection of players into four categories:

  • Category 1 – Defenders: consists of DEF and DEF/MID players.
  • Category 2 – Midfielders: consists of MID only players.
  • Category 3 – Ruckmen: consists of RUCK and RUCK/FWD players.
  • Category 4 – Forwards: consists of FWD and FWD/MID players.

Finally, all prices I refer to are based on Supercoach 2015 starting prices.

The Numbers

To begin with I found the difference in average between a players final year at an old club and their first year at a new club. Unsurprisingly to me, I found that players in their first year at a new club see an increase of 7 points to their average when compared to their final season at their previous club.

This means that on average if a player averaged 80 in his final season at a previous club, he should average 87 in his first season at his new club.

I then broke down the first year average increase by position.

  • Midfielder only players see a massive increase of 19.48 to their average when moving to a new team.
  • Ruckmen are the next best off seeing an increase of 11.46 to their average.
  • Forwards see a slight increase in output of 3.52.
  • Finally Defenders see the smallest increase in their first year at a new club with an increase of 0.44 points.
Position(s) Final Season (Old Club) First Season (New Club) Change
DEF & DEF/MID 80 80.44 +0.44
FWD & FWD/MID 80 83.52 +3.52
RUCK & RUCK/FWD 80 91.46 +11.46
MID 80 99.48 +19.48

Example breakdown for the change in average a player sees in their first year at a new club.

On average a player’s spike in performance in his first year at a new club carries on into his second year.

  • I found that the average change in point production was 5.12 for players in their second year at a new club.
  • Midfielders tend to plateau after their first season at a new club with a decrease of -0.19 while forwards and defenders see a slight increase in output of 1.14 and 1.13 respectively.
  • The biggest benefactors of their second season at a new club are Ruckmen, who average an increase of 26.86.
  • I’m not sure as to why Ruckmen see such an increase but it’s likely caused by a combination of finally becoming the number one ruck and increased time on ground.
Position(s) First Season (New Club) Second Season (New Club) Change
DEF & DEF/MID 80.44 81.57 +1.13
FWD & FWD/MID 83.52 84.66 +1.14
RUCK & RUCK/FWD 91.46 118.32 +26.86
MID 99.48 99.29 -0.19

Example breakdown for the change in average a player sees in their second year at a new club.

Finally I’m going to break down the third and fourth year numbers.

Position(s) Second Season (New Club) Third Season (New Club) Change
DEF & DEF/MID 81.57 84.53 +2.96
FWD & FWD/MID 84.66 81.59 -3.07
RUCK & RUCK/FWD 118.32 111.29 -7.03
MID 99.29 99.58 +0.29

  Example breakdown for the change in average a player sees in their third year at a new club.

Position(s) Third Season (New Club) Fourth Season (New Club) Change
DEF & DEF/MID 84.53 87.56 +3.03
FWD & FWD/MID 81.59 n/a n/a
RUCK & RUCK/FWD 111.29 97.26 -14.03
MID 99.58 98.85 -0.73

          Example breakdown for the change in average a player sees in their Fourth year at a new club.

The Conclusion

The numbers show that the most consistent players who get better with age are defenders, in a year in which we are lacking quality down back we might be able to look at some players who have moved clubs and be offered some security.

Forwards will jump around a bit in output but overall provide more points at a new club than their old club.

Midfield only players if you can get them in their first season are a massive positive. Tyson, Ward, and Ebert to name a few are all players who saw massive increases in output in their first year at a new club.

Ruckmen are great value in their first two years, with a total jump of almost 40 points in their first two seasons they provide unmatchable output…if they can stay on the park.


 

Position by Position

I’m now going to break down each position and attempt to predict how the trends listed above will affect players who moved clubs in the 2014 off-season.

Defenders

Defenders see almost no increase to their average in their first season; on average this is a miniscule 0.44 points per game.

In their second year they improve upon their first year average by 1.13 or 1.57 total since joining the new club.

During their third season defenders averages climb by a further 2.96 points per game (4.53 total more points than their previous club).
During their fourth season at a new club defenders averages jump by 3.03 on their third year average for a total increase of 7.56 since joining their new club.

Position(s) 1st Season Change 2nd Season Change 3rd Season Change 4th Season Change
DEF & DEF/MID 0.44 1.13 2.96 3.03

Using these numbers we can project the following…

1st year defender projections

  • Matthew Dick (Carlton) n/a
  • Cameron Delaney (Geelong) n/a
  • Jordan Kelly (Western Bulldogs) n/a
  • Joel Hamling (Western Bulldogs) n/a
  • Taylor Hunt (Richmond) 60+0.44= 60.44
  • Kyle Cheney (Adelaide) 70.3+0.44= 70.74
  • Sam Frost (Melbourne) 55.7+0.44= 56.14
  • Kristian Jaksch (Carlton) 49.2+0.44= 49.64
  • Travis Varcoe (Collingwood) 66.4+0.44= 66.84
  • Heritier Lumumba (Melbourne) 77.6+0.44= 78.04
  • James Gwilt (Essendon) 72.3+0.44= 72.74
  • Joel Patful (GWS) 69.6+0.44= 70.04
  • Nick Malceski (Gold Coast) 105.4+0.44= 105.84
  • James Frawley (Hawthorn) 77.9+0.44= 80.34
  • Shaun Higgins (North Melbourne) 76.5+0.44= 76.94

2nd Season Projections

  • Shaw will average 92.6 (first season at new club)+1.13= 93.73
  • Docherty will average 76.8+1.13= 77.93
  • Everitt will average 81.2+1.13= 82.33

3rd Season Projections

  • Broughton will average 75.6+2.96= 78.56
  • Chaplin will average 69.43+2.96= 78.26

4th Season Projections

  • Davis will average 59.5+3.03= 62.53

Forwards

During their first year forward eligible players increase their average by 3.52 points, this is the largest spike forwards experience.
During their second year at a new club forwards increase their average again by 1.14 points for a total increase of 4.66 at their new club.

In their third year at a new club Forwards dip by -3.07 points taking their total average change 1.59 at their new club.
Unfortunately there are no current players who fit the criteria to give us a prediction for any change in average for the fourth year at a new club.

Position(s) 1st Season Change 2nd Season Change 3rd Season Change 4th Season Change
FWD & FWD/MID 3.52 1.14 -3.07 n/a

Using these numbers we can project the following…

1st year forward projections

  • Nathan Krakouer (Port Adelaide) n/a
  • Mitch Clark (Geelong) n/a
  • Tim Membrey (St. Kilda) 40+3.52= 43.52
  • Mitch Robinson (Brisbane) 83.1+3.52= 86.62
  • Sam Blease (Geelong) 33+3.52= 36.52
  • Liam Jones (Carlton) 57.3+3.52= 60.82
  • Adam Cooney (Essendon) 80.7+3.52= 84.22
  • Rhys Stanley (Geelong) 70.9+3.52= 74.42
  • Allen Christensen (Brisbane) 90.6+3.52= 94.12
  • Jack Crisp (Collingwood) 85.7+3.52= 89.22
  • Jeff Garlett (Melbourne) 48.2+3.52= 51.72
  • Jarrad Waite (North Melbourne) 91.5+3.52= 95.02
  • Tom Boyd (Western Bulldogs) 44.6+3.52= 48.12

2nd Season Projections

  • Chapman will average 96 (first season at new club)+1.14= 97.14
  • Franklin will average 99.9+1.14= 101.04
  • Betts will average 79.4+1.14= 80.54

3rd Season Projections

  • Pedersen will average 78.7-3.07= 75.63

Midfielders

Midfielders are the bulk of our scorers and in their first season at a new club they can provide us with some pretty high scores.

  • On average in their first season at a new club midfielders increase their output by 19.48.
  • During their second season at a new club midfielders averages tend to remain the same dipping by -0.19.
  • The third season at a new club sees most midfielders make up for their slight dip in the previous year by increasing their average by 0.29.
  • The fourth year in a midfielder’s career at a new club sees a second dip, this time by -0.73.
Position 1st Season Change 2nd Season Change 3rd Season Change 4th Season Change
MID 19.48 -0.19 0.29 -0.73

Using these numbers we can project the following…

1st year Midfielder projections

  • Kane Lucas (West Coast) 47.6+19.48= 67.08
  • Andrew Raines (Gold Coast) 49+19.48= 68.48
  • Ben Newton (Melbourne) 40+19.48= 59.48
  • Shane Biggs (Western Bulldogs) 48.7+ 19.48= 68.18
  • Mitch Hallahan (Gold Coast) 64.5+19.48= 83.98
  • Ryan Griffen (GWS) 98.7+19.48= 118.18
  • Mark Whiley (Carlton) 84+19.48= 103.48
  • Levi Greenwood (Collingwood) 94.2+19.48= 113.68
  • Dayne Beams (Brisbane) 115.5+19.48= 134.98
  • Jono O’Rourke (Hawthorn) 38.4+19.48= 57.88

Further projections

  • Goddard will average 102.1-3.07= 99.03
  • I don’t feel that it is necessary to project the future scores of 2nd-4th year midfielders, as players in that position tend to plateau.

Rucks

  • 1st year at new clubs rucks average 11.46 more points, take away McIntosh’s first year where he played no games and the average goes to 20.25.
  • Second season rucks see an increase of 26.86 on their first season average taking the total average increase since leaving their old club to 38.32 (47.11 taking out McIntosh’s -100 first season).
  • In their third year rucks take a dip of -7.03 making their average since leaving their first club 31.29 higher (40.08 without McIntosh).
  • Rucks take another dip of -14.03 in their fourth year at a new club making their net increase 17.26 (26.05 without McIntosh) on their final season at their old club.
Position(s) 1st Season Change 2nd Season Change 3rd Season Change 4th Season Change
RUCK & RUCK/FWD 11.46 26.86 -7.03 -14.03

Using these numbers we can project the following…

1st year ruck projections

  • Luke Lowden 82+20.25= 102.25
  • Patrick Ryder 101.1+20.25= 121.35
  • Jonathon Giles 73.8+20.25= 94.05
  • Shaun McKernan 47.5+20.25= 67.75

2nd Season Projections

  • Mumford will average 114.2 (first season at new club)+26.86= 141.06. In Mumford’s case we can look back and see that he has done this before, in his first season at Sydney Mumford increased his average by 39.2 followed by a further 20 on top of that in his second season.
  • Hampson will average 75.9+26.86= 102.76
  • McEvoy 89.8+26.86= 116.66

3rd Season Projections

  • McIntosh will average 83.8 (second season at new club)-7.03= 76.77
  • Martin will average 111.7-7.03= 104.68

4th Season Projections

  • Maric will average 99.7 (third season at new club)-14.03= 85.07

Projections Summary

Community obviously all of these projections aren’t going to be 100% accurate but the results when tested against other years are quite consistently close, within a bell curve.

These numbers should be used as a guideline more than anything and the attached image can be used for more information. Click here for attached image

Some players that excite me based on my predictions are Griffen, Mumford, McEvoy, Greenwood, Beams and Cooney.

I hope this article has provided some information that can be used in your Supercoach success.

Lekdog

Twitter: @lekblog

 


89 Comments

T-MAC · 22/02/2015 at 10:21

Brilliant!

Kev · 22/02/2015 at 10:22

When I pick up my jaw from the floor Lek I'll comment further. You absolutely smashed that article and dropped some serious numbers.

I agree with you on rucks though, some tantalising numbers there but I can't see Ryder averaging 121 if he is rucking in tandem with Lobbe. Likewise, Lowden's 82 average is from one game.

Brilliant Lekdog

    @LekBlog · 22/02/2015 at 12:50

    I wish i could make considerations for whether they'll be sharing the ruck role or whether they'd only played one game but alas I'm not smart enough.

    Thanks for reading!

PJ8 · 22/02/2015 at 10:27

Amazing research Lekdog. A completely different way to look at things. I was never going to consider Dayne Beams due to him moving clubs, but this opens my eyes a bit more and now will consider. An already Supercoach gun could turn into a Gablett year.

    @LekBlog · 22/02/2015 at 12:50

    It did the same for me good sir

medadsson · 22/02/2015 at 10:29

Great work, always thought this to be case but never did the hard yards. The three newbies at Brisbane will be a case in point. Be interesting to know how 'non commenting' forth coming free agents have fared in their last years i.e Buddies last year at Hawthorn and perhaps, most likely, Dangerfield's last year at Adelaide.

    @LekBlog · 22/02/2015 at 12:52

    Agreed, I'm fairly sure they dip slightly when "not commenting" Ablett dropped from about 140 in his penultimate season at the cats to 129 in his final season there.

    Something to think about with Dangerfield maybe

PreviouslyOnLost · 22/02/2015 at 10:31

brilliant stuff lekdog!

    @LekBlog · 22/02/2015 at 12:52

    Thanks mate

tom · 22/02/2015 at 10:44

brings a tear to my eye lekdog. Absolutely beautiful.

Haysoos · 22/02/2015 at 10:47

Strong theory Lekdog but I think that there is a significant difference in the 'increase %' for players who previously averaged less than 70 compared to those who previously averaged above 80 and also players who have played 5 years+ compared to less than 5 years. Factor in those 2 points and you'll win the money every week.

    @LekBlog · 22/02/2015 at 12:54

    Agreed mate, biggest jumps tend to be the blokes who go from 40-50 up to 90-100 followed by 80-90 averaging blokes who jump just over 100.

    If you can find the players who will jump from 40-90 (newton maybe) then you're on the money.

T-MAC · 22/02/2015 at 10:52

Which players in the Backline should we be considering? I'm not sure on Hibberd with his hamstring and I'm not too Shaw on Shaw. Is Hodge or Burgoyne still sc relevant? Is Smith and Malceski worth their price tags? I currently have Smith, Shaw, Newnes, Seedsman then rookies.

    John · 22/02/2015 at 11:34

    hmmmmm, good question T-mac, i think you should probably consider not being bad at supercoach

    @LekBlog · 22/02/2015 at 12:56

    I think Shaw is a solid selection, Burgoyne dominated the all star game the other night. I don't think you can justify Smith or Malceski but if you're going to select one I'd lean towards Malc (neither will start for my team though).

    Don't tell Higgo or Jock but I am considering Higgins now and players of that ilk, even Fisher isn't looking a terrible option.

Chicko · 22/02/2015 at 10:57

Simply magnificent Lek! Pure genius this stuff!

    @LekBlog · 22/02/2015 at 12:56

    Thank you Chicko

kevwal · 22/02/2015 at 11:18

Wow Lek, superb. More stats to ponder. Will need all the help we can get to get that backline we want.

    @LekBlog · 22/02/2015 at 12:57

    I'll try and add more years to the spreadsheet to get a clearer understanding, hopefully that will supply more answers for our back line woes

I N Pieman · 22/02/2015 at 11:27

Magnificent research Lek. Has helped me put a line through Rockcliffe & Ward. With the arrival of another point pig who as your research has indicated should increase in scoring would mean a negative impact on them. And that would make them overpriced & not worth picking. Thanks Lek that was a ball tearer.

    @LekBlog · 22/02/2015 at 12:58

    No worries Pie, i wouldn't think Rocky or Ward would drop in output by much but I don't think they can increase their averages this year.

      General Soreness · 23/02/2015 at 10:03

      Rocky doesnt need to increase!

    vcloophole · 22/02/2015 at 12:59

    This

Kent Price · 22/02/2015 at 11:37

Hi Lekdog do u think I should have Cochin in my team this year pls help

    I N Pieman · 22/02/2015 at 12:40

    He will make you upset. He teases you with his ability & he just never steps up to elite. Will have some good scores but plenty that leave you frustrated. He’s just not suited to sc. last year was the last time for me. Traded him in round 3.

    @LekBlog · 22/02/2015 at 12:59

    Kent mate, happy to hear from you again. No Cotch for me, if you want a Tiger in your team Dusty is the way to go.

    General Soreness · 23/02/2015 at 10:02

    Hair is still too perfect, until its short back and sides or a nude nut, cannot be considered.

Phil · 22/02/2015 at 11:43

Great stuff Lekdog…Did you miss Yeo? From this data I believe he would be very relevant given the lack of defence options this year. The premo's suck, the mid pricers are injury prone and the rookies have limited to no job security. Yeo could be the man

    Kev · 22/02/2015 at 12:01

    Yeo – Second year at WC. 65.7 + 1.13 = 66.83

    Important to use this along with your own research Phil. Docherty increased his average by 14.2 in his first year after moving clubs

      @LekBlog · 22/02/2015 at 13:04

      Docherty increased by 24 Kev, so it's all about picking the right blokes. The major point of the article was to highlight general trends and act as a guideline. So you are right some of your own research is required.

      Keep up the good work

    I N Pieman · 22/02/2015 at 12:54

    A budget defence I think is the way to go Phil. You’d want a decent price increase from Yeo. And I don’t think it will happen. If your searching for value there’s better options. I hope!

      medadsson · 22/02/2015 at 13:05

      Hey Pieman. Went to dockers intra-club yesterday … Clancee looked good, played well and was in the 'A' team for what it's worth. There were a host of non starters though.

        I N Pieman · 22/02/2015 at 13:26

        Cheers Medad. Given the rubbish we’ve got down back in searching for value extensively. He is value if he’s best 22. No doubt about that

        @RagingBulls34 · 22/02/2015 at 15:39

        Strongly considering him for D4. Cheers for the info medadsson.

          @LekBlog · 22/02/2015 at 15:46

          If this is true, he's back in the Puppies

        General Soreness · 23/02/2015 at 11:12

        Any further particulars, like # of touches, did he run all day through the midfield or did he pinch hit, who was missing.

        I expect Clancee will be fools gold in 2015, would have lost some of the tank it took forever to build, is lucky to be in top 10 mids at the club let alone being a consideration for my SC team. The only reason for the interest is because he had a 91 once in a full year of football, hasnt been fit since, next best average is 74.5 from 19 games. He is a 75 average player at best who is likely to break down on you. Avoid is my advice.

          medaddson · 25/02/2015 at 13:51

          Hello General. Comment was in response to earlier query from pieman re Clancee. My advice was he would struggle for best 22 and other options exist. However…he played midfield, starting in centre and alternating between their and half back. Was very strong early and consistent throughout. Cant tell you stats as didnt keep them. While I still believe he is borderline at this stage and yes 2012 was his one big year Supercoach wise Id suggest people keep an eye on him through NAB because if he can find a way in through form or someone elses misfortune he is a good honest plodder. Realistic ave prob 75 to 85. Not in my team … yet 🙂

    @LekBlog · 22/02/2015 at 13:02

    Yeo was in the attached spreadsheet mate, increased average by 3.1 in his first year, should increase slightly again, had him in the defenders section.

    Article didn't highlight every player except for first years.

    Thanks for reading mate

Douglas · 22/02/2015 at 11:50

Jaensch?

    Kev · 22/02/2015 at 12:05

    Always been a crow. As an option – 481k is overpriced looking at some of the tripe he served up from rounds 6-15

      @LekBlog · 22/02/2015 at 13:07

      Priced at max, positives are that he ended the year in a massive upward trend. i had a look at him but can't justify him at that price just yet

Liam · 22/02/2015 at 12:39

I think you've gone a little bit far Lekdog and spent too much time in the lab, cant see any of this as relevant. Then again if beams averages 134 (yeh 134)…I will shout you a pepsi!

    @LekBlog · 22/02/2015 at 13:09

    Each to their own mate, I mean the numbers are there, there is a general improvement when players move club it's just picking which ones will have the biggest increase.

    The projections don't take into consideration changes of roles, current rosters at the new club etc. But it's undeniable that the trend is an increase in points at a new club.

    If Beamsy averages that high I'll let you mate haha

George · 22/02/2015 at 12:47

Might have to jump on the Whiley bandwagon…

Honestly though, which back line combo do you guys think would score better:

Thompson and Sheehan

Thompson and Rohan

Docherty and Sheehan

Docherty and Rohan

McDonald and KKolo

Seedsman and KKolo

Mayes and KKolo

McDonald and Seedsman

McDonald and Mayes

Seedsman and Mayes

Feedback would be appreciated

    George · 22/02/2015 at 12:54

    The rest of my back line looks like this:
    Hibbert, Newnes,???, ???, Watson, rookie (rookie, rookie)
    Currently the 3 rookies I’m looking at are Shaun Edwards, Hugh Goddard and Brandon Maynard. If anyone knows any other defensive rookies worth selecting that would be very helpful as well

@LekBlog · 22/02/2015 at 13:10

Biggest potential for mine is Docherty and Rohan IF Rohan get's Malceskis role (he is training in that role at the moment)

    Tone · 22/02/2015 at 13:22

    word at the swans camp, Jetta will fill the role…

      I N Pieman · 22/02/2015 at 16:09

      I filed a missing persons report on him after the GF.

    George · 22/02/2015 at 16:36

    What do you reckon if in fact jetta fills that role Lek?

UDA · 22/02/2015 at 13:44

join the CHAMPIONS 179981

    kevwal · 22/02/2015 at 13:58

    Thanks for the invite UDA.

poloko48 · 22/02/2015 at 14:56

Great stuff Lekdog! I put another challenge to you – would love to see some data on pre and post bye with some of these – do the new recruits start like a house on fire, then tail off, or do they start slowly to get used to new team then fly home? Could prove crucial in trade strategies.

    @LekBlog · 22/02/2015 at 15:48

    I have some of that available and I'll try and put something together for you

scano · 22/02/2015 at 15:25

great tactic lekdog! Was wondering what I should do for my M6. I see a lot of people going for someone around the 500k mark but i was thinking of getting someone like Newton or Cripps. Is this too many rookies onfeild?

    @LekBlog · 22/02/2015 at 15:49

    I would prefer m7 to be a 200k player but if you can make it work m6 would be fine

    Phil · 22/02/2015 at 18:23

    There's no right or wrong way to play the game Scano. If you start with 3 midfield rookies and there's 3 awesome midfield rookies (and there the ones you had) you got the right structure. If there's only 2 good ones, you should of picked an extra premium. Use the NAB cup as a guide to see who the best rookies are.

    Tyson at M6 last year, with Polec and Dunstan would have been the way to go but every years different.

Derek · 22/02/2015 at 15:51

Fantastic work.

This is why we need to be thinking about our teams now, not a week before round 1. Gold!

I predict that people who read this article and understand the depth of what is being said will increase their weekly SC score by at least 3.09%

    Derek · 22/02/2015 at 15:56

    I hadn’t considered Big Boy at the Hawks until now…… Second year, found out the hard way last year that the Hawks machine doesn’t like passengers and I think this year he is ready to step up as the lone wolf number 1 ruck. Will consider.

      @LekBlog · 22/02/2015 at 18:13

      As will I mate, thanks for the feedback too

yuiop · 22/02/2015 at 16:14

DEF- Simpson, Shaw, Newnes, Ibbotson, Pearce, Edwards. — manteit, goddard
MID- Ablett, Pendlebury, Kennedy, Wines, Crouch, Newton, Heeney, Boekhurst. — Smith, Atkins, Freeman
RUC- Goldstein, Leuenberger. — cox
FWD- Goddard, Martin, Swan, Mitchell, Bellchambers, Salem. — Daniel, Lambert

Thoughts? 1k left

    @LekBlog · 22/02/2015 at 18:14

    Only blokes I'm not sold on are Mitchell, Bellchambers and Ibbotson

    Tyler · 23/02/2015 at 20:44

    'While the Swans have a relatively healthy list heading into the NAB Challenge, the club has also been forced to hold back prized youngster Isaac Heeney with knee tendinitis.'

    Would not pick up yet. I am thinking of waiting till he is guaranteed to play, as he will probably have a bit of a late start

Benjo · 22/02/2015 at 16:33

Love it Lek great work!

Rocky vs no Rocky? Can someone please give me some reasons?
Cheers!

    @LekBlog · 22/02/2015 at 18:14

    I'm not Rocky, I think Gablett and Pendles will suffice

    Phil · 22/02/2015 at 18:17

    I'm part of the minority that actually has Rocky cos I reckon the kids a freak. Whilst I understand the reasons for not starting him, I'm starting him for the same reason I start Gaz. If he smashes it early, it'll be a nightmare trying to get him in. If he doesn't, I'll merely sideways him to anyone
    There's uncertainty over every player if you look hard enough. But by all reports he's had a good pre season and is the type of guy that will only get better with the captaincy I reckon.

Benjo · 22/02/2015 at 16:44

Also, based on this, is Griffen a good option? The obvious worry is the tag.

    @LekBlog · 22/02/2015 at 18:15

    Yes I'd say he's a good option (in my team) and if I were in charge I'd tag Ward over Griffen haha

Jambo · 22/02/2015 at 16:50

I seriously think Jeremy McGovern will go big this year. With Darling done for at least half a season, McGovern will take his role and also, with Nic Nat taking over ruck duties full-time. Why not?

@LekBlog · 22/02/2015 at 18:15

Not a terrible option, quite like him myself

throttlefinger · 22/02/2015 at 18:27

Lek, your mind is simply just brilliant. And will admit that this was so chockfull of insight that I had to read twice just to make sure I digested it all properly.

Was leaning towards Beams and Griffen but this makes it a tilt. Docherty is another that I'm rating highly. Think he'll step it up with Walker and Simmo both aging (and not terribly well…sorry). Forwards isn't as tantalizing yet might give more attention on Garlett during NAB. And I'm considering Mummy, which I really wasn't before due to his price. Even if he comes relatively close to that 2nd year that would be a bargain.

You've done more than uncover SC Gold, my friend. Think you've dug deep and found SC diamonds. Well done!

George · 22/02/2015 at 18:30

Is only having 4 midfielders over 350k too little in the midfield? (Gaz, Rock, Pendles, Jelwood, Rich, NVB, Cripps, Boekhorst (Heeney, Freeman, Lambert))

    Patrick · 22/02/2015 at 18:49

    No, at the start of the season it doesn't matter where your premiums are positioned, everyone will have 14 – 16 the spread doesn't matter! Just depends what starting positions rookies there are and what mid pricers will become premiums in your opinion

    This year I am backing in 4 mid pricers all in my fwd line! Gamble but it is worth it (I pick 2 teams one with guns and rookies, the other a little adventurous)

      I N Pieman · 22/02/2015 at 19:32

      Sounds like the statement of a man who has conquered. Spot on assessment. It’s all about the rookies. Design your teams around various scenarios of the lines that get the better ones & those that don’t.

Gohnny · 22/02/2015 at 18:31

Any chance of making the raw data available?

Patrick · 22/02/2015 at 18:33

Hi lekdog,

Interesting read and I would imagine a enjoyable task!

Everyone seems to be talking about their DEF this year, but never seen Sucklings name! Second year back from injury, booming kick and prior to injury ave high 80s and I believe had a year at 90

Would much rather him over Higgins at a similar price

scano · 22/02/2015 at 19:52

Thoughts on Clancee Pearce?

    medadsson · 22/02/2015 at 20:26

    Best 22 is the issue with Clancee, played well out of midfield in intraclub club match yesterday in the A Team but as previously said there were a host of players absent. Almost forgot how good and long a kick he is. If he gets a regular run and plays well in NAB then he would have to be a goer but he did fall from favour last year. He is competing against Duffield, Ibbotson, Spurr and Sutcliffe for a spot in defence and a strong midfield Fyfe, Barlow, Mundy, Neale, Crowley etc. for a spot in the guts. If he gets a run he'd almost be a walk up start.

Gold Rush · 22/02/2015 at 20:48

Great Stuff Lekdog, thanks for the effort.

Lachlan · 22/02/2015 at 21:35

Newnes, lumumba, kk, Henderson, Buckley, Hamling (Edwards, Goddard)
Ablett, pendles, selwood, beams, wines, Newton, crips freeman (Atkins, krakoeur, lambert)
Nic nat, McEcoy (cox)
Goddard, Martin, swan, titch, templeton, Salem( hogan, laverde)

How’s it looking lads??? Apart from very thin in defence

    Stickman · 22/02/2015 at 22:46

    Really don't like Lumumba has never been spectacular. Never averaged above 90 and for that price a player must be a keeper. I prefer a much safer option in Heath Shaw. Not sure where you will get the funds from maybe dowgrading Cripps to Heeney. Anyway apart from that like the team a couple of great PODs in McEvoy and Beams who I wouldn't have considered before reading this article.

Dan · 22/02/2015 at 21:46

Salem or Karnezis as F7 (potentially F6 if Hogan spuds it up)?? Both apparently smashing off season. save 50k though with karnezis. Although currently i do have Salem in my team

THanks

    Sarah · 23/02/2015 at 08:35

    Go for whoever is named round 1! I'm hoping for Karnezis myself.

      Westy · 23/02/2015 at 20:04

      Got burned by Tele Karnezis in previous years. I'm no longer mysteriously moved by him.

lostlarrikin · 22/02/2015 at 22:43

Kick a#se stuff Lek.
Love those tasty Mid and Ruck projections.
McEvoy as a shrew POD anyone?

ItFigures · 23/02/2015 at 02:43

Has anyone else questioned your figures on Chaplin?

Sarah · 23/02/2015 at 08:36

Great work Lekdog!! Amazing research!

jhawk · 23/02/2015 at 13:14

Is it worth considering a few essendon rookies consedering the bans. They could see plenty of mins first few rounds..

Part 2 mids at a new club would u pick – o rourke if he can get in the best22 or mitch hallanhan ? Hawks will be keen to give a young midfielder a lot of time with hodge and mitchall getting on.

BennyGan · 23/02/2015 at 20:30

These projections make me feel a lot better about picking paddy, great stuff mate keep up the great work.

smohkey · 17/04/2015 at 00:46

lmao – hopefully malceski comes good 😉

Comments are closed.