Supercoach 2015 – Andrew Swallow

Published by Lekdog on

2014 was the year of David Swallow; will 2015 be the year of Andrew Swallow?

LekdogCommunity, going into the 2015 season my teams’ structure will be heavily reliant on proven scorers.

This means I will be spending big on players that deserve it and looking for value where I can find it.  I personally like to find value in underpriced premiums and I can tell you that Andrew Swallow fits that category nicely.

Jock and I go into depth on proven scorers and fallen premiums in the Club Jock Podcast for donors, if you haven’t already I recommend you donate a dollar or two and have a listen here.  For now I will focus specifically on North Melbourne’s skipper Andrew Swallow.

2015 Price: $500,600
2015 Position: MID
Games last season: 15
Average last season: 93.13
100+ Games last season: 6
Sub 80 games last season: 4
Price range last season: $499K – $546K
Missed games last season: Rounds 1-9 (Achilles injury)
Significant history: Best and fairest- 2009, 2011, 2012North Melbourne Captain 2012-presentHigh score of 193 Supercoach points in a game

I like my Supercoach players to have been high scorers in the past, Swallow’s last four years show us that he is very much a high scorer. 2014 and 2013 were riddled with injury for Swallow but he still managed to score very highly. Playing just 15 games in 2014, Swallow was able to score above 100 six times with a high score of 134 for an average of 93.13 and despite his injury was 3rd for clearances per game.

2013 was a very similar looking year to Swallow’s 2014 and saw him score above 100 eight times in seventeen games for an average of 101.3. What 2014 and 2013 showed us is that even with injury interrupted pre-seasons and regular seasons, Swallow could still deliver an acceptable output.

But what do his numbers look like when he is fit and healthy?

When healthy Swallow is a gun. No doubt about it.  From 2009 to 2012 Swallow played 22 games a year and he played them well. During this period Swallow averaged 98.8 in 2009 and 106.2 in 2010. But it was Swallow’s 2011 and 2012 seasons that set the standard for his Supercoach output.

In 2011 Swallow averaged 25.6 disposals per game as well as 6.6 tackles per game. This saw his Supercoach average skyrocket to 111.9 including thirteen 100+ scores and a career high of 193 Supercoach points in a game. 193 points! Just let that sit for a minute community, that’s a Gablett-esque score right there.

Swallow continued his good form into 2012 where he averaged 109.4 with another thirteen 100+ scores.

Andrew Swallow 2015

Clearly when Swallow is fit he is a far better player and from all accounts he is fit. The North Melbourne captain says that his Achilles is feeling better than ever and that he is enjoying having a full pre-season to prepare.  With North looking to push even further into finals in 2015, the prospect of Andrew Swallow in our Supercoach teams has me excited.

Swallow makes his points on the back of disposals, tackles and clearances (ranked in the top 10 for clearances per game since 2011) but I’m hoping in 2015 he can add another string to his bow, goal assists.

Goal assists are the unsung Supercoach hero. Rarely talked about, the goal assist stat rewards many Supercoach points to those who have perfected it.

Robbie Gray is a great example of this, leading total goal assists and goal assists per game in 2014 and they buffed his Supercoach scores throughout the year.

A slight increase in goal assists from a fit Andrew Swallow would increase his Supercoach output nicely. And with the additions of Waite and Higgins (when he runs in the forward line) into a successful North Melbourne lineup, Swallow should have some better targets and an increased likelihood to produce more Supercoach points from goal assists.

Will I be selecting Andrew Swallow in my starting lineup?

Absolutely. Swallow is currently locked away nicely at M6 for Lekdog’s Puppies and for good reason. I believe (much to my dismay) that North Melbourne will win more games in 2015 than they did in 2014 and this is good news for Andrew Swallow. Swallow’s average in wins in 2014 was 93.9, slightly higher than his season average of 93.1 however if we disregard his comeback game in round 9 his average in wins jumps to 96.9. An increase of 3 Supercoach points in wins may seem nominal but taking into consideration his injuries I expect this average to jump even further in 2015.

Another statistic that leads me to believe that Swallow will be a good selection is how he ended his year in 2014. Swallow averaged 98.9 Supercoach points over his last 10 games of the season, almost six points higher than his season average. To further highlight his strong end to the season Swallow averaged 99.6 Supercoach points over his last five games of the season. If he can build on these averages Swallow will begin the year averaging above 100 and at 500k with the ceiling he has, for me it’s a no-brainer.

Selection Purpose

If I haven’t covered it enough, Swallow’s selection purpose is simple. He will either average highly enough to be a top 16 midfielder and potentially a keeper (which at 500K is a win in my books) or he will increase in value to a point where you can trade him for a super-premium player.

To make this decision easier for us Swallow has the round 13 bye, meaning if we need to we can trade him into an Ablett, Pendlebury or Fyfe if we don’t already have one of those players.

Risk Factor

Picking Swallow does have some risk. His injury history over the last two years as well as his ageing body (will be 28 in 2015) means that there is a chance he injures himself again. Despite the fact that he appears to be ok and is completing a full pre-season we must still be careful of injury prone players.

The bigger risk in my opinion however is using your valuable midfield positions on Swallow. Generally what I have found is when backing in these proven scorers you have a higher chance to miss out on breakout stars like Ollie Wines or Brad Crouch. This all comes down to structures, as my structures are reliant on proven scorers I will be selecting Swallow and sacrificing a position for a young gun. If your structures rely on young guns then perhaps Swallow is not the selection for you.

The Good

  • Proven Scorer
  • Averaged over 111 in the past
  • High score of 193
  • Scores well even after injury
  • Appears to be healthy
  • Cheap at $500K
  • Plays in a winning side
  • Averaged 99.6 over his last 5 games in 2014
  • Has a full pre-season under his belt
  • Doesn’t share bye round with ‘the big guns’
  • Top 10 in clearances and tackles for most of his career

The Downside

  • Probably won’t be a top 8 midfielder
  • Has missed a lot of games over the last two years
  • Probably taking a midfield spot from a young gun

The Verdict

My verdict is simple I’ll be picking him. He’s a similar pick to Ryan Griffin except far more appealing in every way. He’s cheaper, healthier, plays in a better team and has a higher ceiling. The only reason I can see for not picking him is to go with a young gun instead. My mentality this year is to pick blokes who have done it before, Swallow has done it before.

Let me know what you think community, what are your structures and will you be selecting Swallow?



Twitter: @lekblog




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Hugh G

Was really hoping to keep him under the radar. Thanks for ruining that for me… Lol


Sorry mate haha


I was hoping that too HughG. But lets be honest. Anyone who knows their stuff would have him on their radar anyway.

Hugh G



Great write-up Lekdog!

At the moment have gone with Brad Crouch around that price range but this might change my mind!


Yeah they should have similar output, don't think you can go wrong


Lekdog…..great read

What are your thoughts on Hannebary and cotchin vs swallow?? For only extra 30k you can pick these players, I predict both will play in strong sides and both have improvement


I love the way Hanners goes about it, just not for my team. Have a look at his scores and he can be very hot and cold. Cotchin finished the season strong but can attract the tag.


Hanners not for me, will likely drop slightly is my prediction. I'm taking Swallow over Cotch because i think they will have almost identical output. I do like blokes that ended last year on the up though (cotchin)


brilliant Lekdog!

Can not decide who to pick out of Swallow and Heppell for my M4/5 spot.

my current midfield is
Ablett, Selwood, JPK, Heppel/Swallow, Hannebery, Rich, Heeney, Freeman.

Would appreciate thoughts!


(From an essendon fan), swallow for me. 70k cheaper, averaged 110+ in the past.


Heppell to explode this year I think
Fitter and stronger a better midfield and Watson not injured
All should lead to him scoring well

I’m going swallow(heppell too) hope he’s a keeper, he’s on my maybe a keeper list from my starting line up


I think it might be too many risks in the midfield, you might be better selection 1 or 2 from those last 4 players. 3 is a bit heavy if they don't average anymore than 95 – 100 you are in an awkward position and if injuries hit that need dealing with it could well be season over fairly early? Not sure there is enough gain to be had with so many risks, especially in the midfeild.

For me I think it's a year to take some risks in the back line where he have so few safe selections and the midfield would be good with strong proven premiums.

Perhaps take Swallow (Hep shares the bye round with GAJ and Selwood and is more expensive) then downgrade Rich to a rookie and upgrade Bery to Pendles? Not sure of the exact money involved but should be about right?

Seaford Scouse

Selwood has the rd13 bye Rob, spot on about the risks in the back line theory though, I’ve skinned it down to the point where Newnes is my D1 atm, not sure I’ve got the testicular fortitude to run with that though but it is just a game hey!


Great write up lekdog, going with him as my M5.


Excellent write up Lekdog, proven ball winner and a very hard at the ball player. At 500k he is definitely one to look at given how deep Norths midfield is this year there's no need to worry about being tagged I reckon. And also looking at Norths last year making it to the finals there going to be hungry to get back up there this year with Swallow leading them to his full extent.

If considering Swallow or Griffin i'd definitely recommend Swallow.


Agreed, Griffen gets less and less appealing everyday


Great write up Lekdog. I have him in my side ATM, however I do some concerns over his inconsistency, which is want we don't want when selecting a player for 500k+.
I, for one, don't have a crystal ball to foresee what he may punch out this year, but if history repeats itself (and it tends to for players who've been in the game for as long has he has) we can only expect the same things again, ironically! These things happen to be;
Not playing 22 games per season,
Scoring well in SC terms for a week (110-120+) then having a cpl of mediocre weeks,
And finally, a poor average in the finals series last year.
At 500k we have to ask ourselves are we better off selecting a player on the upward curve of his career who will only increase his output while a lower injury risk, or do we hope like hell that he has a flying start to the year to make us some early cash for an upgrade target come rd13? I would prefer to be upgrading rookies early in the piece, rather than sidewards trading a bloke who is under performing, injured or averaging 90 when he should be at 110+.
I'm not sure what average he should be getting for his current price, and call me a killjoy if you like, but I can't see too much upside to him – only risk. But by Jesus I hope I'm wrong!!


Great counter argument, jstorm. Sign of a good supercoacher is to question everything and do your own research into a player. Picking Swallow depends on how you like to play the game in your midfield. He is a proven scorer who is 100-160k less than your premiums this year (not inc. ablett and rocky). If he spuds it, it's not a massive jump to a fallen premium or a breakout player. If he goes bang you've got a potential keeper for 500k. Risk vs reward


Spot on Kev – risk v reward is what it's all about for these awkwardly priced, one positioned players.
Let's hope he belts the crap out of the early season, and the full season for that matter.


There was a good picture I got tweeted that showed he's averaged over 110 against all of his first 5 opponents when he's played them in the first 5 rounds meaning he should start strong. At his price he's priced to average around 93 so I do expect a price rise.

All depends on personal preference, you've made some good points and they are points that need to be considered however personally I'm taking some risks on upcoming players in my other lines so Swallow is a bit of a safe pick for me.

Thanks for reading Jsorm


Don't get me wrong mate, I hope he has a cracking start. I've got him in as my M5 at the minute.
I've never owned him before because I always thought that he under delivered, but his starting price & that twitter pic (and other research) has him pretty much cemented. Loving the fact that he's having a full pre season too.
Also noticed that he was in bugger all squads, let's hope it stays the same way!!


Haha might have to delete the article then :p


I reckon he can average 105-110 don't think Griffin can.


agreed 😉


Pearler job Lek ! i have him locked in at M7 at the moment but will most likely get moved up to M6 otherwise im running a bit to light else where.


Yeah i know the feeling, trialled having him at m7 but he'll be my m6 or m5 come season proper


Good work Lek. I currently have him at M6. Plan on him being my M8 or M9 by seasons end. As Jock said in the last podcast you want players that you know have climbed the mountain.


That's the idea mate, i think he's an all round solid pick at this stage.


Hi guys, would anybody be able to tell me where I could find the weekly winner scores from SC 2014?


The app from last year should have it the prize section.


excellent Lek! Also currently locked in as my M6, just not sure I’m going to have that structure when the first ball bounces but if I do, I think it’s very hard to go past Swallow for that value. I’m hoping he is a keeper.


Me too mate


Only thing I have against Swallow is that his premium scores were two years ago. In those two years, other young players have stepped up for North, leading to the club's rise up the ladder. These young blokes have been contributing to the side more consistently and can only get better in 2015. Especially in contested possessions/tackles, where Swallow goes to town. Players like Cunnington, Bastinac and Ziebell should dominate this area, though the departure of Greenwood should help Swallow. Will be interesting to see how it plays out, a no from me. Great write up Lekdog.


Yeah solid point Bulls, I'm actually thinking those factors will help him fly under the radar a little avoiding tags and what not. Also is he has any sort of injury i'll not be selecting him. It's his full pre-season that's doing it for me at this stage.


Currently my midfield looks like this: Ablett, Selwood, Sloane, Priddis, ???, Rich, Cripps, Boekhorst (Freeman, Heeney, Laverde).
DPP players on other lines that can also be selected as midfielders are: J Newnes (DEF), D McKenzie (DEF), B Deledio (FWD), B Goddard (FWD) and D Swan (FWD).

It has come down to 4 players for my last remaining midfield spot, and I wanted to know who I should pick. Those players are:
Ryan Griffen
Andrew Swallow
Brad Crouch
Jack Steven


Also, could the community please help me with my defence? It is as follows:
Hibberd, Newnes, Seedsman, L McDonald, Ibbotson, D McKenzie (DVR, Hoddard)



Don't waste a midfield spot with a player you can select in another position. My feeling is Swallow will be the best pick. You just have to look at his recent averages over the years, he has done it before. However if you think Crouch can have a break out season he isn't a bad option either. Griffen will need to prove he is over his back issues, and Steven will likely cop the tag in a young St Kilda side.


Wines is another good spot filler, I'd prefer him over Crouch


Wines or Griffen for M4? (provided Griffen has a good pre season)


I've currently got Wines M4, Griffen M5 & Swallow M6…I like em all! (like u said, provided Griff looks good in the NAB and has an uninterrupted pre season!)
I'm backing Wines to have a Fyfe 2014 type of break out year. Another pre season is under the belt, boom, lookout!


As do I VC – with Ablett Pendlebury and Selwood as M1-3.

Seaford Scouse

Too many question marks with the Griff at the moment mate, new club, new role, back rumours. At this point I’d go Wines, nab watch is a must for these line calls mate.

General Soreness

I like swallow for value, but if I’m taking a risk on injured players I’ll go crouch.


I take your point, but Swallow is not injured. As a North supporter, I am VERY focused on how the captain goes, and he is in my side for only the second time in the 5 or so years I've been playing SC. He came back slowly from the achilles last year (who doesn't?), but his last half dozen or so H&A games showed what he can do.

Frankly, my knock on D Swallow from a fantasy viewpoint has always been that he gets a lot of very hard contested ball and often his next disposal is under such pressure that it is ineffective or even a clanger. In this regard, he is gold from a playing (and supporters) viewpoint, but perhaps less so from a SC viewpoint. Having said that, a fully fit Swallow will get the ball often enough to score well consistently. A steal at 500k.


Aaah, I meant A Swallow.

(Freudian slip, we North supporters secretly covet David and are plotting to bring him to join his brother).

General Soreness

Forgot to say, brilliant analysis Lekdog.


Thanks mate, I feel the love


Great writeup once again Lek. Swallow sitting at M6 for me at the moment. At this stage, I think only Brad Crouch can displace him with some ripping NAB cup form. I'm hoping if all goes well with trading and rookie cash generation that Swallow ends up being my M9 averaging 105-110…hopefully… 🙂


Long term, I like it!


Nice Job Lek. He was resident at M6 from November until last week when I learned that ALL Kanga's midfielders will have less TOG under their new mids rotation strategy. That combined with a potential loss of output associated with being dropped from the leadership group AND his rampant injury history of the last 3 years had him replaced by JUDD. Judd is cheaper , averaged at least 10pts p/game more for the final 9 rounds of 2014, has had his first full preseason in 5 years AND he wont be copping a TAG.

Comment regarding leadership group maybe premature, I don't think they've told him he wont be captain yet.


More forward time then for Judd? Like the uniqueness though!


I doubt that Judd will spend much time forward he's got the burst of speed back and a genuine desire to go out with a bang. For the first few weeks at least Murphy and/or Gibbs will get the taggers Judd will outscore swallow by 15-40 pts p/week for the first 5 weeks.


That's highly ambitious prediction, Wombats. Love your confidence.


This is awesome, I have him on my watch list and a number of things I've read have him "flying", take some serious weight down under to still have him locked in at lock out. Will be good to watch him get out there in the NAB. Hope he dominates though! Interesting that he is "only" 31, I think because of the injuries I had him pegged as older.

Good luck if you can stick with him!


I hope to hell Juddy is back, he was saying he wants to play on even next year so I'm hoping that will cause him to recapture his old form. Side-note, I ended last year with Juddy for mixed results.


Love it Wombats! Bruyn manoeuvre episode 2


Hi loopy, I reckon its as obvious as a gecko beneath the bark 20 feet up a gumtree. Certainly easier to identify than anybody in my legendary backline solution


Um, he IS captain for 2015.


Loved the article Lek. Great job


Thanks Benjo!


LekDog can you post your team for the community please? Would be great to see!!


We will be doing a team release closer to the season mate, let's just say a few people will disagree with some of my selections


Seems a solid pick given he is highly likely to go up in price. Concern is he would need to have a career best season to be a keeper. Otherwise he will need to be upgraded at some stage and is effectively i high range mid-pricer whose purpose is to make money. If things get tight for trades you could find yourself stuck with a midfielder averaging 105.


Fantastic review Lekdog. Putting your stake in the ground about this guy. And hard to argue. Going back and forth between him and Griff for M6 and what it may come down to is the winning side argument (i.e. more SC points available). While I have faith in my GWS and think it's not a stretch to say they will do better this season, it would be a big surprise if they are finals bound.

Only pause is Griff can go HUGE with more frequency than Swallow. Is that worth the extra $30K? Questions abound, my friend. Excellent dissection and insights as always.


It's true, Griffen ended last year with a 189 from memory but i'll wait and see how his back pulls up before I make any decision on him.


Awesome write up, interesting point about Swallow vs Griffen. I hadn't really had them in the same boat, a fit Griffen could give us a top 8 midfielder for quite cheap while a fit Swallow could give us a top 16 midfielder. Those extra 5 ppg at top level can make a huge difference if we get 111 or 116 average out of them.

Less question marks over Swallow though that's for sure with Griffen at a new club and people wondering about his back despite promises he is ready and roaring to go.

Currently running with Wines instead in that position, my midfield doesn't bat deep though, but hard to put a team on the park without looking for some value there and Wines is a beast, should be a decent little POD hopefully!

General Soreness

Wines currently in 6.11% of teams


Griffen in 12.93% and Swallow in 15.56% of teams… out of the 3, Wines is a bigger "Little POD"

General Soreness

Surprising for me, Griff and Swallow may give some big scores but I expect Wines will give a greater total points output at seasons end that either of them. At their age with the injury history I will make sure they miss at least a few games 🙂


That is surprising, I thought I'd be the odd one out for not having Wines (still trying to squeeze him in though)

Trab Pukcip

Ollie was my first player picked! He has a big season coming up. He has filled out and looks to have beefed up big time. Will be a contested beast this year and hopefully up his tackle count too!!!! All aboard the wines express.


I wrote a small article before these inspired big version articles that Jock had invisioned late last year. Good to see it has come to pass, the great words of wisdome here is priceless from our community.

I do believe Swallow is a 100-105 player.
If he does bare golden fruit this year that could mean 105-110 which I think is a keeper.

I also did a small article on R.Griffen saying he for similar reasons as Swallow can improve this year but the change of team has worried me a little. Before he moved to Giants I was putting Griffen's potential to 105+ this year but now hmmmmmm :/


Agreed, I think Swallow has potential to be a keeper and I have similar concerns over Griffen.

I'll have to check your writing out!


It's a tough one. Quality review and great discussion community…….if you were to pick him what would you see a par score would be? 105? Probably anything over that would be a win.

Priced similarly to Marc Murphy last year.


I'd say around 105 is par. Very astute comparison to Murphy there mate.

Seaford Scouse

Spot on there I reckon Phil.


Bang on Lek!
Yeah Swallow will be too hard to pass up for mine and that rnd 13 bye seals it.
Interesting to read in the mag (which arrived today – Woo Hoo) that Swallow is about to climb out of his yr 9 trough on the Mammoth Curve. Significant.


Fantastic point, Double L.


Very good Point!


Lek bang on

Need some help with a pick if anyone can help me

Newnes or Everitt

I know so many people have Newnes but they avg the same and Everitt also a def/mid… I know he was Injured last year but still idk if anyone can help me it would be great

Seaford Scouse

Very nice analysis Lekdog. Swallow should be back to his best this year, hopefully from the get-go. Achilles injuries take a full year return to recover from in afl-land so as long as he completes the full pre-season and shows in Nab I’m on board.

Interesting discussion around similar players too, I’m going with crouch and wines currently to fill out m4-6 spots whilst happy to wait and see on the griff, could turn it on but could easily spud it up again, too many questions on him at the moment. If he explodes then I’ll rethink but little confidence in that happening at the mo think I’d rather go treloar even.


i think some people are forgetting how good swallow is when fully fit, before his injury in 2013 he was leading the brownlow medal count until the game he got injured (16)


Im surprised no one has mentioned Toby Greene in discussions involving M5-6 with your griffens swallows wines crouch etc. Ball tearing finish to last year after removing his head from his ass, post intraclub suspension.


Originally had Steven… now I really don't know who to choose out of the two of them. Great article