2014 was the year of David Swallow; will 2015 be the year of Andrew Swallow?
Community, going into the 2015 season my teams’ structure will be heavily reliant on proven scorers.
This means I will be spending big on players that deserve it and looking for value where I can find it. I personally like to find value in underpriced premiums and I can tell you that Andrew Swallow fits that category nicely.
Jock and I go into depth on proven scorers and fallen premiums in the Club Jock Podcast for donors, if you haven’t already I recommend you donate a dollar or two and have a listen here. For now I will focus specifically on North Melbourne’s skipper Andrew Swallow.
|Games last season:||15|
|Average last season:||93.13|
|100+ Games last season:||6|
|Sub 80 games last season:||4|
|Price range last season:||$499K – $546K|
|Missed games last season:||Rounds 1-9 (Achilles injury)|
|Significant history:||Best and fairest- 2009, 2011, 2012North Melbourne Captain 2012-presentHigh score of 193 Supercoach points in a game|
I like my Supercoach players to have been high scorers in the past, Swallow’s last four years show us that he is very much a high scorer. 2014 and 2013 were riddled with injury for Swallow but he still managed to score very highly. Playing just 15 games in 2014, Swallow was able to score above 100 six times with a high score of 134 for an average of 93.13 and despite his injury was 3rd for clearances per game.
2013 was a very similar looking year to Swallow’s 2014 and saw him score above 100 eight times in seventeen games for an average of 101.3. What 2014 and 2013 showed us is that even with injury interrupted pre-seasons and regular seasons, Swallow could still deliver an acceptable output.
But what do his numbers look like when he is fit and healthy?
When healthy Swallow is a gun. No doubt about it. From 2009 to 2012 Swallow played 22 games a year and he played them well. During this period Swallow averaged 98.8 in 2009 and 106.2 in 2010. But it was Swallow’s 2011 and 2012 seasons that set the standard for his Supercoach output.
In 2011 Swallow averaged 25.6 disposals per game as well as 6.6 tackles per game. This saw his Supercoach average skyrocket to 111.9 including thirteen 100+ scores and a career high of 193 Supercoach points in a game. 193 points! Just let that sit for a minute community, that’s a Gablett-esque score right there.
Swallow continued his good form into 2012 where he averaged 109.4 with another thirteen 100+ scores.
Clearly when Swallow is fit he is a far better player and from all accounts he is fit. The North Melbourne captain says that his Achilles is feeling better than ever and that he is enjoying having a full pre-season to prepare. With North looking to push even further into finals in 2015, the prospect of Andrew Swallow in our Supercoach teams has me excited.
Swallow makes his points on the back of disposals, tackles and clearances (ranked in the top 10 for clearances per game since 2011) but I’m hoping in 2015 he can add another string to his bow, goal assists.
Goal assists are the unsung Supercoach hero. Rarely talked about, the goal assist stat rewards many Supercoach points to those who have perfected it.
Robbie Gray is a great example of this, leading total goal assists and goal assists per game in 2014 and they buffed his Supercoach scores throughout the year.
A slight increase in goal assists from a fit Andrew Swallow would increase his Supercoach output nicely. And with the additions of Waite and Higgins (when he runs in the forward line) into a successful North Melbourne lineup, Swallow should have some better targets and an increased likelihood to produce more Supercoach points from goal assists.
Will I be selecting Andrew Swallow in my starting lineup?
Absolutely. Swallow is currently locked away nicely at M6 for Lekdog’s Puppies and for good reason. I believe (much to my dismay) that North Melbourne will win more games in 2015 than they did in 2014 and this is good news for Andrew Swallow. Swallow’s average in wins in 2014 was 93.9, slightly higher than his season average of 93.1 however if we disregard his comeback game in round 9 his average in wins jumps to 96.9. An increase of 3 Supercoach points in wins may seem nominal but taking into consideration his injuries I expect this average to jump even further in 2015.
Another statistic that leads me to believe that Swallow will be a good selection is how he ended his year in 2014. Swallow averaged 98.9 Supercoach points over his last 10 games of the season, almost six points higher than his season average. To further highlight his strong end to the season Swallow averaged 99.6 Supercoach points over his last five games of the season. If he can build on these averages Swallow will begin the year averaging above 100 and at 500k with the ceiling he has, for me it’s a no-brainer.
If I haven’t covered it enough, Swallow’s selection purpose is simple. He will either average highly enough to be a top 16 midfielder and potentially a keeper (which at 500K is a win in my books) or he will increase in value to a point where you can trade him for a super-premium player.
To make this decision easier for us Swallow has the round 13 bye, meaning if we need to we can trade him into an Ablett, Pendlebury or Fyfe if we don’t already have one of those players.
Picking Swallow does have some risk. His injury history over the last two years as well as his ageing body (will be 28 in 2015) means that there is a chance he injures himself again. Despite the fact that he appears to be ok and is completing a full pre-season we must still be careful of injury prone players.
The bigger risk in my opinion however is using your valuable midfield positions on Swallow. Generally what I have found is when backing in these proven scorers you have a higher chance to miss out on breakout stars like Ollie Wines or Brad Crouch. This all comes down to structures, as my structures are reliant on proven scorers I will be selecting Swallow and sacrificing a position for a young gun. If your structures rely on young guns then perhaps Swallow is not the selection for you.
- Proven Scorer
- Averaged over 111 in the past
- High score of 193
- Scores well even after injury
- Appears to be healthy
- Cheap at $500K
- Plays in a winning side
- Averaged 99.6 over his last 5 games in 2014
- Has a full pre-season under his belt
- Doesn’t share bye round with ‘the big guns’
- Top 10 in clearances and tackles for most of his career
- Probably won’t be a top 8 midfielder
- Has missed a lot of games over the last two years
- Probably taking a midfield spot from a young gun
My verdict is simple I’ll be picking him. He’s a similar pick to Ryan Griffin except far more appealing in every way. He’s cheaper, healthier, plays in a better team and has a higher ceiling. The only reason I can see for not picking him is to go with a young gun instead. My mentality this year is to pick blokes who have done it before, Swallow has done it before.
Let me know what you think community, what are your structures and will you be selecting Swallow?