AFL Supercoach Legend Jock Reynolds

Higgo revealed the mathematical secret to the changes to ruck scoring on Superfooty on Thursday.

Some key excerpts from his ground breaking study:

 

“The inexperienced among us will gloss over the rucks and spend most of our time concentrating on the other, more attractive, positions. This is a grave mistake. Crucial to the success of your SuperCoach team in 2015 is — at the very least — a rudimentary understanding of a changed scoring dynamic.”

 

“..central to this understanding is a key hypothesis — almost every ruckman will go into the new season overpriced due to the new scoring system. In fact, only one of the top 10 averaging ruckman from 2014 is forecast to hold his value if the new scoring system is applied to their 2014 statistics. That man is Sam Jacobs.”

 

“..convert this to a monetary value and I would suggest that Minson will head into season 2015 overvalued by $43,500”

CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ARTICLE 

 

How will the changes effect the way you tackle the big blokes this season?


41 Comments

BillJamesTheory · 06/02/2015 at 14:09

Jock the link is linking me through to "SuperCoach 2014 winner Patrick Warman’s 10 secrets to success" also a good article but not the desired one I believe.

spuds · 06/02/2015 at 14:38

thanks higgo.

guys I've started a random league if anyone is interested (114551) join on up if your interested

    Oldmanrunner · 07/03/2015 at 08:25

    Take you up on that mate. Woof Woof

T-MAC · 06/02/2015 at 15:32

Good article, is there any chance of a defensive one? I think defence is a struggle this year due to the players who are no longer defenders. Can I have peoples thoughts on Hampton. Cheers

    @RagingBulls34 · 06/02/2015 at 17:18

    Hampton is a very interesting option, averaged around 89 last year before he got injured. When he returned later in the season he scores dropped, obviously due to his injury (ankle I believe?). Dermott Brereton is a huge fan of his silky smooth moves he does during matches and is often trusted with doing the kick ins for GWS (as well as Heath Shaw). If he stays injury free he will be a great prospect. One to watch in NAB, especially with regards to his role in the team.

King Menace · 06/02/2015 at 15:35

Who would you have out of Nic Nat or Luey

    Kev · 06/02/2015 at 16:33

    NicNat

      shezza · 06/02/2015 at 17:48

      Nic nat give that bloke a bone

Kev · 06/02/2015 at 16:35

The ruck changes was a top 3 article in the mag for mine. Would love to see a poll Jock to see which way the community is leaning.

    T-MAC · 06/02/2015 at 18:00

    Great idea Kev, and maybe one for which premium backman the community are choosing.

@jstorm311 · 06/02/2015 at 17:13

To much blood to the groin & feeling lightheaded after reading this superb article. This article, by one of our own, simply confirms why the JR Community is the greatest one in Fantasy Football! Pant stretching stuff.

    @jstorm311 · 06/02/2015 at 17:16

    *Too

    shezza · 06/02/2015 at 17:49

    A glance downstairs at the unemployed stirred feverishly with this useful info

@RagingBulls34 · 06/02/2015 at 17:22

Even though Jacobs is the only one not overpriced in terms of the new rule, I doubt he will be able to maintain his possessions around the ground this year, thus falling in price (upgrade target). I personally think Goldstein will improve, since his overall possessions and hit outs should increase. This is because he should dominate as a stand alone ruckman, unlike the start of last year with Daw/Currie, which impacted on his scoring.

    shezza · 06/02/2015 at 17:50

    I think he will. A new coach, more running. To get approx 50 points a week for just his ruck worth let alone his possessions is money for jam.the hardest selection is ruck 3 imo

    WombatsFC · 06/02/2015 at 18:30

    The bigger issue for Jacobs is when his knee is going to allow him to begin full training, not how many possessions he gets IF he plays in the first 5 weeks.
    Big fella knees are very intolerant and if they're not allowed to recover 100% before being loaded up again, they spit the dummy and surgery is required. If you doubt me check the stats for knee injury recovery times for ruckmen v normal sized people.

    I also think that Kreuzer and Luenberger are underpriced so sauce aint the only opportunity to build a bank in the ruck

      @RagingBulls34 · 06/02/2015 at 19:23

      True wombat, eg: Mumford's knee from last year. By possessions I mean tackles and marks as well, etc. I am thinking of Leunberger and Kreuzer for R2 ( I currently have Naitanui), but I doubt they will be in the top premium rucks by the end of the year, whereas Goldstein probably will.

WombatsFC · 06/02/2015 at 18:33

Great article Higgo. Identifies that the best way to maximise ruck dollars is to start with the Kruezburger Combo for 5-6 weeks and then trade in two reduced price premos. Could be 200k saving when BurgerKruez increase added to premo decrease

    Seaford Scouse · 07/02/2015 at 16:32

    Agree with that Wombats, sandiballs held up well enough last year in similar so definitely worth consideration for those willing to take the punt, I’m on board!

Leighroy · 06/02/2015 at 21:54

Great write up higgo. I haven’t got to the ruck strategy in my mag yet but liking what wombats suggesting in the two mid price ruck options and then picking off two fallen premiums.

Hazey · 06/02/2015 at 22:03

I’m thinking along the lines of Nic Nat teamed with a pairing from the same club; for example Goldy + Curry, Hickey + Longer, Sandilands + Griffin. This way could potentially avoid the donuts or need to trade if the number 1 man goes down.

Thoughts?

    Phil · 06/02/2015 at 23:23

    Not a bad idea Hazey but I reckon if you picked NicNat & Goldstein, and one got injured, I would back it being NicNat, making Currie useless.

      Hazey · 07/02/2015 at 08:22

      Holy Sweatballs Philmeistet…I was so excited about my plan I hadn’t even thought of it going that way!

        Seaford Scouse · 07/02/2015 at 16:36

        Could work with nicnat and lycett as a dpp forward option Hazey, nice strategy but you’d insurance. Not sure about hickey and longer though I went with that last year and got burnt but rucks have inherent risk anyway so I knew what I was getting myself into.

    Leighroy · 07/02/2015 at 00:00

    Like that idea, currently have nic nat, and burger with Phillips. Now thinking kruz and Berger both round 11 byes. Although upgrading one of them for a under valued prem with a round 12 bye. Need to do some numbers.

Northerner · 06/02/2015 at 23:42

Thoughts on Lycett as DPP forward? He’ll play cox’s old role and is capable of a CM and kicking a few when resting forward. I see him averaging 90 and whilst not at unders, he’s the only DPP ruck I see holding his value – Ryder won’t for example – who is also a potential keeper as F6. R2 backup may be the difference between a top 4 finish or not. I can’t see Bellchambers as a keeper. Thoughts?

With all of the talk that Kruezer will spend time forward wouldn’t the gods making him DPP as a late change make this a whole lot easier!

    Shezza · 07/02/2015 at 07:11

    NO!!

    Seaford Scouse · 07/02/2015 at 16:39

    I reckon you’d be right about tbc Northerner and lycett as dpp is an option I’ve looked at and still might go with depending on nab. Favouring a mid/fwd with upside in that slot for me at the moment though but definitely worth considering depending on your structure and level of risk you willing to take on.

Give It A Go · 07/02/2015 at 00:25

HI all, have dog dog ang luey at the mo, waiting to see how the scores pan out over the NAB for any changes to my rucks, have a league going if anyone would like to join, league 100497, cheers all

t_mitch · 07/02/2015 at 04:58

kruezer, luey and bloody tom bellchambers…. these are the only names i here being thrown around as r2???'' im i the only bloke that thinks big tommy nichols is an absolute steal and should be locked in at r2????

    Shezza · 07/02/2015 at 07:11

    Agreed – if Smith goes down again, jump on. Definitely worth watching in the practice matches

kevwal · 07/02/2015 at 08:16

Have done plenty of research on the rucks and the strategy. Will still use R3 as VC loophole. Will then need a DPP ruck. Zac Clarke at F4 is the man. Once he was over his 'General Soreness', didn't play first three rounds, he didn't miss another game. He turns 25 just before game one, has had a full pre-season. He will put out 80+ consistently. Priced at 75>80. Ross plays him more as a forward than a ruck swap with Sandi. He tackles, has 50:50 kick:handball. Slightly better output in a winning side. The big plus, 80+ consistently until the time is right to move him on. A good backup for the rucks, has the round 12bye, Nic Nat round 13bye (if you don't go Nic Nat, you are going to miss out on 110+ for the year), Kruzer bye round 11 (if he makes it that far). Feeling more comfortable with this combo right now.

    Tylo · 07/02/2015 at 10:54

    The way I see it Kev, if you're picking a F/R to cover your rucks it's so you don't have to burn a trade if 1 gets injured. But if your F/R isn't making money and has to be upgraded anyway then you're still using that trade eventually so what have you gained? You would need to cop 2 short term injuries in the ruck in the first 10 rounds to make it worthwhile.
    I think playing a F/R forward would be ideal but that player still needs to justify a spot in your team by being either being a keeper or making money.

Phil · 07/02/2015 at 09:01

Leuy vs Kreuzer might be one of those make or break decisions with most teams likely to pick 1 rather than both or neither. The Parker vs Mitchell of 2015….They could quite easily give you premuim scores, or flop.

I reckon Kreuzer looks better if Wood plays, rather than Warnock, as I think he is the better forward. Obviously if neither play, Kreuzer becomes a no brainer.

Leuy's got Martin coming off a breakout year. Martin could be asked to fill the void as a key forward though, perhaps Brisbanes biggest weakness. That could work in Leuy's favour.

You would have to have balls of steel to pick both though I reckon, can't see too many reliable R3's for backup

Phil · 07/02/2015 at 09:10

Who does the community fancy the most to get games out of the rookie rucks? I'm thinking it would have to be Nankervis given that he was EMG several times last year and the Swannies haven't gained anyone in that area and I believe Mike Pyke has been on a modified program for at least part of the off season.

    t_mitch · 07/02/2015 at 10:44

    none

    Seaford Scouse · 07/02/2015 at 16:42

    Pykes always on a modified program Phil. Nankervis probably one of the better options, Durdin at North might get an opportunity in defence also but the reality is there really isn’t anything much on offer and seldom is in the ruck rookies.Rory Lobb also but only if Mummy goes down. Maybe Peter Wright…ok now I’m struggling!

    Seaford Scouse · 07/02/2015 at 16:44

    Oh and Derrix likely ahead of Nankervis also, might become a backup if Pyke goes down though.

    steve · 14/02/2015 at 10:03

    Your issue is picking who will relieve Pyke. Derickx Nankervis and Naismith are all options.

Dan · 13/02/2015 at 20:44

I think with Rucks this year, one needs to take into account a ruckmans ability for effective hitouts as much as a teams mids effectiveness at getting first hands to the ball. the 2 are not always mutually exclusive.

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