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The Bruyn Manoeuvre – Blokes I won’t touch

Published by Jock on

G’day community. John Bruyn here, coach of TheDimmaWits.

 John Bruyn - The DimmawitsIf you’ve been around this site for a while you’ll have seen and heard the odd snippet from me ever since TheDimmaWits took out the 2013 SuperCoach season.

So what brings me here today?

I won’t call it ‘giving back’ – but the fact is – this site, and those of you who participate in the discussion here, definitely contributed to my winning season. It’s because of this that I’ve decided to come on board at Jock Reynolds FC and contribute on a more regular basis.

How this will work and exactly what this (hopefully) weekly contribution is going to look like though is still being heavily debated at the Bungalow. So let us know what you’d like to see from me! Jump in the comments below or hit me up on twitter @imjohnb

To kick things off however, and to introduce myself to those of you who don’t know me, I’ve put together a bit of a ‘blokes I won’t be touching’ shortlist which includes a few names being tossed around SuperCoach circles. Of course, being so early in the piece, this list will change a whole bloody lot so I’ll promise to revise it closer to the real deal stuff kicking-off.

Righto, let’s get into it.

 


Welcome to ‘The Bruyn Manoeuvre’

BLOKES I WON’T TOUCH


DEFENSE

Nick Malceski

$550k puts him way above my budget for a defender who’s last name doesn’t start with Goddard, Bartel or Deledio (those were the days eh?). Had a mortgage on Sydney’s half back line so I don’t expect to see him playing through the mids at the GCS. Post bye upgrade target 101 right here.

Shaun Burgoyne

Would like his ceiling to be higher if I’m going to fork out $500k to start him. Getting older too which makes me wonder about his durability. Plenty of worse picks though that’s for sure. Does get the job done, no fuss, but just doesn’t entice me at his price.

Rhys Shaw

A few will take him on the basis he may pick up some of Nick Malceski’s former output. In my opinion that role could fall to a number of blokes – McVeigh, Rampe or even Rohan. IMO Rampe is far from a sure thing too. Shaw though has been around long enough now that we shouldn’t be expecting an increase in output worth buying. Pass.

Herieter Lumumba

Never scored high enough at the Pies to be classed as a premium so I don’t see why we should assume things will change for him at the Dees. Classic ‘role change’ trap. Don’t be fooled by talk of him moving to the midfield! Buyer beware I say.

Brodie Smith

Until I hear Phil Walsh says “Brodie Smith will definitely play midfield this year” I’ll be looking for value elsewhere. Just do not see why Adelaide would move their newly minted AA half back from the role he played so effectively last year. 2nd in the comp for rebound 50’s isn’t output just anyone can provide. I’d rather select Kade Simpson in this price range.


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MIDFIELD

Luke Parker

A gun make no mistake about it. Had him last year from the start and boy did he pay me back. Truth is, I just don’t see him going higher amongst the other Sydney mids. I reckon he is priced close to his ceiling and would almost need a brownlow year to really improve his average. Better value is on offer in my opinion. Certainly won’t lose you money. Fell free to gloat to me on twitter when he wins the Brownlow.

Nathan Fyfe

I always say don’t let the byes dictate your starting squad but Gaz, Pendles and Fyfe is too many for me to swallow in one bye round. A hard one to bypass. Likely to go 115-120+…first sign of trouble in Pendlebury-town and this guy makes my team. Could be a reasonable POD….hrrm reconsidering this call already.

Tom Liberatore

I am tempted by Tom. His round 11 bye is somewhat useful to me as well. Even though emerging teammates, like Macrae and Bontempelli, will receive increased attention Tom’s the big dog in the kennel. Struggled at times last year in games where Griffen didn’t play. If I’m paying $600k I want to know exactly what I’m buying. I would rather Danger or Cotchin.

Any Mid/Fwd players in my starting midfield.

That’s right, zero! Save them for your forward line people. Don’t fill a valuable mid slot with someone available on a different line – regardless of who is available this year as a forward. I always believe you will get the best bang for your buck from pure mids. Trade DPPs links into your side as the season progresses. If they didn’t get a guernsey in your FWD line to start with, are they really the best options for your Midfield?

Any of the young GWS gun mids

Likely to be a bottom 4 team and I think it’s extremely doubtful any of them can break the top 5 mids for 2015 = so I won’t be starting any. Why take the risk? I don’t see it.

Any $300-$500k mids

there is always someone who jumps out of the pack as the ‘one that got away’ but trust me, it ain’t gonna be the guy you (or I) start with! C-Money NAILED his Midpricers in Swallow (DEF) Parker and Gray (FWDs) last year. Did he pick Macrae (who crushed it) or Thomas (who didn’t) in the mids? Noooope. Keep Dale ‘2014 stepping stone’ Thomas in your mind…Daniel Rich will need to comeback with a BANG to really reward his selection.

2012 SUPERCOACH WINNER WITH A STORY OF HOPE

2014 WINNER C-MONEY’S 9 STEPS TO SUPERCOACH SUPREMACY


RUCKS

Sam Jacobs

Will be the first picked for some and I can see why. Who knows how Phil Walsh will change up Adelaide’s ball movement – got a lot of points as a link man in the middle last year. At present his price looms too large for TheDimmaWits this year.

Matt Kruezer

If Warnock plays VFL round 1 then I will reconsider. As a forward? Biggggg pass.

Ivan Maric

Watch out if he strings games together because he is underpriced at $500k. Sadly, even though I’m a tigers fan and love the bloke, I don’t see him playing 20 games. Rucks will be crucial this year so if I’m not going cheap I want to have confidence my boy can go the journey. A better pick than Minson still I reckon. Prove me wrong Big Ivvy! Go Tiges.


FORWARDS

Dustin Martin

Fully priced in my opinion. I think he’ll play a very similar role this year to last. Has never been a massive possession winner and without the odd 35+ disposal game his average should stay around the current mark. I’ll try get him cheap somewhere along the line.

Jack Ziebell

Hasn’t given me any reason to give him a guernsey amongst the other available Mid/Fwd options. I’d rather go a more proven SC player. Might win you a league game here or there but I don’t think he’ll win you the $50k. Fools gold? I think so.

Lance Franklin

I don’t start fully priced forwards. Even a player of Franklin’s calibre is likely to give you the chance to pick him up cheaply during the year. Could be a nice POD to start the year with so certainly not a bad pick…but I’m gonna play it safer in the FWDs.

Tex Walker

the new crows captain! He is at a similar price to Travis Cloke who exploded in the early rounds of 2013 – and was nearly responsible for me winning. If you have big enough kahunas this guy could do the same for you in early 2015. Let me know how you go. Pass for me, sorry Tex

Harley Bennell

Sorry JR, three years averaging 95 looks like a pattern to me. Fully priced with less upside then others is my call.


OVER 100 SUPERCOACH 2015 PLAYER OPTIONS ANALYSED – CLICK HERE


Before I head off community a few words of attempted inspiration.

If you see a bloke here that you’ve got locked away, don’t despair. Back yourself in if you’ve got that feeling in your guts – because right now, I’m just another SuperCoach addicted punter like yourself.

Don’t be fooled. I went into the 2013 season with absolutely zero intentions of winning the whole bloody comp – just the humble goal of doing as well as I could. If you are reading this, and already have your head in the SuperCoach game, you have as much chance of finishing no. 1 as anyone!

So at the end of the day, have a crack, do your best, and believe me don’t dump a bloke just because someone else has said so.

Let us know below which players you’ve got on on your ‘blokes I won’t be touching’ short list.

Cheers, until next time.

JB

 


Follow JB on twitter: @imjohnb


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General Soreness

Brilliant John and welcome. With the exception of one current GWS midfielder I do not have any of the others currently in my team. Would love your thoughts on NVB, Bellchambers and Nathan Brown as well as they are no touch list.

John Bruyn

G'day General,

Thanks mate.

NVB – if he played every week for a 70 I'd be happy with that. Looks like rookies galore right now but come round 1 this bloke will be a popular choice I think.
TBC – definitely on my watch list but that because I don't think I'll be spending as much in the rucks. R/F link is valuable but rolling he dice without cover might be the risky way to play the game. Preseason will say a lot
Nathan Brown – no way I'll take him mate. His ceiling is 40-50. There will be at least 2 playing DEF rookies and they at least are cheaper with the POSSIBILITY of going higher. Waste of that extra 40k picking him I reckon

General Soreness

My thoughts exactly on N Brown.

Rolling the dice without cover is likely to be my ploy, even as a Bombers man cant justify coin for TBC just as cover would rather make coin elsewhere.

On NVB – if he played every week is my primary concern people seem to forget he is getting older, coming off a knee and even as a non tagging mid is about M4 at best but more likely M5 or M6 in his own team what will that do to his TOG% and what % of that will be mid time, too many unknowns at this stage. May eat my words post NAB but I doubt it. I expect NVB to be a popular pick, me not having him will be my POD.

The_Kraken

As hyped as we are all right now, it will inevitably come down to which rookies are named round 1 (which impacts not just which rookies we'll roll with but also WHERE (which impacts our structures)). Last year we had to rule a line through a heap of youngsters who looked good through the NAB, but then didn't get a guernsey early doors. So NVB might be useful as a stepping stone – priced at a 40 average and averaged 77-84 from 2007-2012. Personally i'm a bit suspicious of him, would need to see him being a key cog through the NAB..

Also, there are some interesting other guys around his price – Newton, Sheed, Biggs, Brayshaw, Cripps, Acres..

General Soreness

Again Kraken, nice work, all those guys have higher claims that NVB in my opinion, and they are just the similarly priced ones.

@RobMcLellan2

A big plus for NVB this year is that the Crows now have a good tagger and a backup tagger already. There is word from the coach that he won't play that roll and will be given the roll of getting the pill himself. This won't always be true but if it means an 80 average as opposed to a 70 average then it makes a big difference in the coin he'll make, also means more chance he'll get a game or two on the better side of 100 to throw in a few extra dollars before you upgrade… high on my watch list at the moment!

TBC has been in and out of my team more times than I can count but I think I'll end up without him instead of with him, injury prone and won't score enough to lock down F6 I wouldn't imagine… have to see how the line up works with Giles as well, so many question marks with him it seems almost safer to go with no ruck cover instead! 🙂

Craig

Further regarding Nathan Brown, as a maggies supporter I'm happy to say stay away….. when he was fit he wasn't a very good long kick. He's more of a mark and/or receive and handball-off type defender which doesn't bode well for SC scoring. And then there is always THAT shoulder…….

T-MAC

Great article, most of those players I will be staying away from bar Smith and Fyfe. Like to know peoples thoughts on if Pendles will get a hard tag since Beams has buggered off North

John Bruyn

Mate Pendles has had a hard tag for years. Don't worry about it

General Soreness

Not too mention the shifting trend in the AFL to tag the outside runners or offensive tag linking half back flankers, basically acknowledging its almost impossible to stop some of the better contested possession ball winners.

vcloophole

Excellent point General!

ASADEN

Pendles is untaggable mate. in and under player bombers supporter sayn this

Kev

Great to hear the insight of past winners. Fantastic coup for the JR Community. For the most part I agree with your no-touch list and I love your words of inspiration. If you can justify a selection with some positive research then roll the dice.

Would love to hear your thoughts regarding the defensive line. It seems like we've got no choice on selecting a few mid pricers this year. Are blokes like Newness, Mayes or Docherty worth it?

John Bruyn

Spot on Kev, opinions we've all got em.

Newnes – possibly, just be sceptical on the hype. Saints are still a weak side so he isn't gonna come out a string 30+ possession games in a series of loses but at lease if he goes wrong you'll have trade options at his price.

Won't be touching the Sam's though mate

Slaternator

John, you won’t start Franklin even though he plays Essendon first up?

JohnBruyn

Wouldn't pick him just because of that personally. It's a long season but I can see your point.
He is far from a bad pick. Forwards, even Franklin, can be fickle. Sure he might smash out 170 but soon enough he'll throw in a 70 odd. The Goddards and Deledios are more likely to go 100s every single week and that's what I'm looking for early on. Franklin isn't someone I'd be telling everyone to jump off however

The_Kraken

Agree 100% with this philosophy – MIDs classified in the forward line are absolute gold and luckily we have some really good ones this year to feast on. Sounds obvious to say, but in my mind the best looking F1-F6 forward line (post upgrades) is comprised purely of MIDs who'll deliver you 70 at worst and 120+ at best

Buddy will invariably have a bad patch (30s/40s/50s) and his price would plunge as a result. If the last 2 years are anything to go by, he'll be $150-200k cheaper than his starting price at some point in the first half of the season – and so personally I reckon he (and the other key forwards) are better suited to being upgrade targets around/after the byes (if at all)

vcloophole

Couldn't agree more on the philosophy Kraks and JB.
The one exception to starting a 'key fwd' this year could be Ryder. Surely he is a safe 100-110 point lock weekly, AAAND provides the DPP link with M.Cox in the ruck. I'm favouring this setup at the moment.

Windy Hill Matt

I think Ryder is a risk, he did a lot of the ruck work last year with Bellchambers down and unfit. This year he'll be second fiddle to Lobbe and reliant on him going fwd and kicking goals. He might, but youre paying top dollar to find out

Redgumwon

That's a very good point about Ryder last year spending most of his time in the ruck. That is why I won't be picking him up .He might be one to look at later in the year

Mike

Swans ALWAYS start slowly. Last year they lost to GWS (FFS)! Don't bank on Franklin going large early on. Still he should have a good year.

Hazza_08

Love watching Franklin play and i have him in atm but, and i know from experience he will have good and bad patched. It is a tooss of the coin whether he spuds up or goes bit oin weeks 1-5, personally i am going with him just incase he does and that could push me up the ranking. Like the idea of Ryder and the DPP

Seaford Scouse

Buddy’s scores last year were pretty ordinary until Tippet came back in so worth considering if both fit rd1 I reckon. You also have to think they’d want to atone for that crap they served up in the GF asap!

WindyHillMatt

Buddy is engaged now and settled which means less sundays at bucket list on the cans, he'll kick 100 this year. Get on the Buddy train!

t_mitch

great read mate, only things i go in a different direction are libba, i think he will go higher this year, and gws mids, ward and griffin to be exact, either should produce quality scores for the whole season even if they finnish bottom 4, as ward has proved

General Soreness

Libba's output sans Griffen is not great, as soon as Griffen left the dogs, I sandwiched a ten foot pole between my SC team and Libba.

T-MAC

Last year I found that when Libba got the tag when Griffen missed, he struggled. No Griffen the whole season may mean his scores will be impacted by those real hard taggers

Dools

G'day T-MAC,
'Libba was struggling sans Griffin last year but he is a young bloke who is learning. I think the team and 'Libba will have worked out interference patterns to enable a slip of the tag.

I would also like to point out that his Tank is not / was not fully developed as he just turned 22!
Ranked 19th in Total Handballs,
Ranked 1st in Total Tackles. SC Gold that !!!
Ranked 20th in Total Supercoach Score, He was only 22
Ranked 8th in Total Contested Possessions. SC Gold again
Ranked 1st in Total Clearances, WhoooHooooo SC GOLD
Ranked 2nd in Tackles Per Game, Seems like a pattern here but tick the box
Ranked 16th in Supercoach Score Per Game,
Ranked 7th in Contested Possessions Per Game, You see what I'm putting down
Ranked 2nd in Clearances Per Game , Not to shabby

I can't write him off , in fact I'm keen on the young fella

WombatsFC

Hi Dools, that's a good argument for Libba. I reckon he might get a 2nd year in the wombats jumper this year.
On points. Clearances (gather from hitout) only worth 2 points, that's less than half of a looseball get? what were they worth last year?

Dools

He is not locked but the argument is his numbers mate,
Will he wont he 50% to both , but then I pose this where does he go screaming into the night like a vanquished witch or does he become a Vampire to emerge on certain moonless nights to suck the blood outa any one who went Pendles before picking Sidebum////////////

Dools

Wombats,
are you still going Judd?? I rate that move

WombatsFC

Yeah he's still there. Like anything it all depends on the NAB. Despite his age if he's fit he's the equal of Dusty

WombatsFC

It'll be either him or Jack Steven atmo I feel safer with Juddy. I doubt that Jack will find things any easier this year than he did last year unless he's grown 20cm and put on 15kg. But NAB will tell

WombatsFC

I reckon Golby could be a nice POD whilst Hanley has his hip replacement surgery .

Mads

I think Fyfe is still a good choice. I wont be touching any KPP in the forward etc Buddy, Roughy, Tex. Way to up and down for my liking.

Chicko

Absolutely brilliant work JB! Couldn't agree more with your assessement on all of them, particularly the Prince and he who is gifted. Too much hype, not enough output to justify a selection. Your thoughts on hungry hungry Hibbo? I'm still toying with the idea of starting with the Wolf as my M3 but you make a wise point on he, GAJ and Pendles sharing the bye. Thanks again mate

JohnBruyn

Hibbard? Gun. First defender picked this year just about

Chicko

Correct JB, he is a lock for my D1.

vcloophole

@JB & Chicko…you guys not concerned about Hibberd's dodgy, dodgy hammies? Yes he's a JET when fit and on the park…buuuut….*twang!*

Chicko

Gday VC, I am concerned but not enough not to pick him. If his hammy does go twang then hopefully by that stage, I've got good cover. He is a definite lock for mine.

Mike

But will he have anyone except rookies and vfl players to kick to come mid year?

Chicko

Gday Mike, if it plays out that way, he also wont be playing, but I am confident the great conspiracy will continue and the boys will get off.

throttlefinger

As you boys say, a ripper! While my GWS side is still smarting from the bottom 4 slap, do agree there's too many questions to be answered. And putting in Treloar would be chasing last year's points. Griffen and D. Smith are the only ones I'm consider…ok, ok, also considering J. Kelly for my front line as a smokey.

Think that no mid pricers in the mids has been the gold of the week. Was considering Stevens yet feeling A. Swallow could be the Beams buy of 2015 (although he won't get anywhere near 115 ave).

ThoseI won't be touching: Esky, Simpson, Rocky (just too damn much and too big a midfield), Ward (Griffen dynamic won't benefit him at the jump), Sandi (foot injury within first 11), Robbie Gray (one year doesn't make a sparrow's fart) and Buddy/Roughy/Westoff (for the reasons you stated. And maybe Swannie if he doesn't come out strong in NAB.

Again, brilliant article John.

Mike

I reckon GWS will surprise this year and push on. Mumford, Griff, Ward, Shaw, Davis, all the improving mids, Patton, Cameron, the young forward/mids. Crikey that is some list and WAAY ahead of bottom 3. I can also see them winning over mid placed teams and catching a few top 8 teams out. Paying $1.80 for 6.5 wins is tempting (if I gambled on sports which I don't really).

t_woof

Something on Jeremy Cameron for the Coleman @ 34's is the play.

@Ageneral3

Sorry Bro, Robbie Gray will be farting tons on 2015 for 20 weeks, on my side. No Brainer.

James

what are your thoughts on Nakia Cockatoo? and also Sam Blease as a POD

T-MAC

IMO Sam Blease will really struggle, I don't personally see him being in Geelong's best 22

JohnBruyn

Worry about rookies close to to rd 1. If he is playing well and looks like starting though I'm sorry to tell ya but he won't be a POD for you at that stage!

Ryan

Great article John, are you contemplating heppel at the moment?
Gets a lot of the ball but doesn't always use it well, do you think he'll be the opponents number one tag target?
Cheers

JohnBruyn

Heppel – more in the other games. Getting to 115+ is what you'd be looking for a that is an elite bracket. There's limited upside to picking him at his price, that sort of jump from where he is about $50k at the most so I'd rather choose a sure thing and get value in another position.

22andaHalfMen

Nice work there JB I wonder what Crouching would add to this 'burnman' list… Higgins for sure Broughton no-brainer but would be interesting if more Fremantle guys come into consideration for selection in starting teams given no more Ross Lyon resting factor in round 23 finals with the round 2 league start? I too am wondering about Newnes, Mayes and Docherty-esque players, or even Wells/Rich for that matter…

Also just tried to login to SC site to do the 2014 team analysis and seems to be locked out in prep for the 2015 kick-off at midnight D'OHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Hazza_08

Cheers John, Great Article. Quick question for the community. Is Andrew Swallow a player worth considering, would love your thoughts.

JohnBruyn

Only if he's your M5 or M6 and only if you think he can go at 105 minimum. I have my doubts.

Hazza_08

thnx john he is at m5 atm the teams looking like this atm would u mind giving your thoughts

Def: Shaw, hibberd, Birchall, Newnes, Waters, Goddard

Mids: Ablett, Rocky, Selwood, Watson, Swallow, Heeney, Boakhorst, Freeman

Ruck: Nic Nat, Berger

Fwds: Deledio, Goddard, Buddy, Swan, Hogan, Lavarde

The other option is rockliff > pendles and Swallow > Danger, Boak etc

Cheers

swaami

Gday John,great article and verey relevant.I’m suprised on your no Sam policy,Mayes and Docherty are both looking pretty good,Mayes especially,could you elaborate more on why the Sam’s are crossed off ya list?

johnbruyn

I’ll answer with a rhetorical mate – why would you pick them? I reckon I can name a few better options with more to offer.

Docherty – Adcock and Higgins (yep not joking!)
Mayes – Vlas and KK

vcloophole

JB, serious question: Could Varcoe be a top 6 defender by years end? Very curious on your thoughts on him.

22andaHalfMen

Pearce Hanley… thoughts JB? PB year 2014 unlikely to be able to repeat as likely to cop more attention this year?

JohnBruyn

Pass mate, you want pure mids forget the rest.

@TG_Footy_Tragic

Bloody Marvellous John.

I agree with almost all of the aforementioned players.

Spot on with defenders.

Fyfe is a gun and will be awesome, but you'd need to pick either him or Pendles for M2 – all three are too RD12 heavy.

Parker went big last year, not proven for that price – my thoughts are the same on Gray.

No Griffen in WB, no Libba in my SC team – CRAP with a tag.

Rich… I'm leaning further and further away from him… I'm more inclined to go ultra cheap and use his position to squeeze Griffen in my m6 instead.

Kreuz is too scary a prospect, especially with injury history and lack of bench options.

Sauce is ULTRA expensive and we just don't know what 2015 brings to the Crows – as well as ruck rule changes.

Ivan Maric – I've been selecting him in my squad all pre-season, still think he's good. Need to closely monitor him.

Dusty is overpriced and the value in the forward in 2015 is just too big to pick him.

Ziebell is overrated and crap. never rated him as an SC option.

Buddy, KPF, wont pay full price for that.

Tex, really torn with him. has the captaincy, could do a Riewoldt and boss out, or a Smurf and spud up. add new coach. pass.

Bennell is in the I don't know category. He teases and can explode, but can also go missing. Maybe a Dusty V2.0

Refuse to touch:
Waite – FLOG and likely to miss/post crap scores as a KPF.
Rohan – See Relton Roberts. Crap ad-infinitum.
Walker – teaser. when roaming free can do good things, but likely to score crap in a row.
Cloke – bloody cloke. If he could kick straight, he could be a supercoach legend. just too wayward.
Stanton – Seen so many players pick him. if let loose he can explode, but tag him and he's an 80-85 avg player.

likely missed a few, but these are guys on my short-list of AVOID.

General Soreness

Higgo was querying if Cloke could be bought cheap sold high quickly not dissimilar to John Bruyn 2013.

Cloke the only bloke in the AFL that does everything right expect for what he is primarily paid to do, kick goals from 0-55m. Okay he is not the only bloke Scully has to be up there. Two highest paid AFL in 2014 Ablett and Scully, brilliant work by his management team.

Redgumwon

I think Ollie Wines might be a better selection rather than Griffin. Both at a very similar price

Tony

Way off the mark with the Ziebell comment, so I'm taking the rest of what you write with pinch of salt.

General Soreness

Will the next article be headed "Blokes I will touch" – could have a whole different raft of connotations. Like is Brad Pitt in your side for 2015?

JohnBruyn

Ha, I see what you did there

I N Pieman

Great article Johnny. I'm glad to see I have none of the blokes you mentioned are in my current team.

General Soreness

I felt heartened by that as well, with the exception of 1 GWS mid 🙂

Danners16

Great article John! I have a few of the players on the list and I can see your point on why we shouldn't get those players. Who should we get instead of Bennell? Also are you 50/50 on Rich, if you believe we should get rid of him, what rookie should we be looking at?

Sarah

Won't know rooks til round 1 teams are named.
I'm not touching Rich. 2015's Dale Thomas.

22andaHalfMen

Here here Sarah. Got burned by Daisy as well as M Wright last year and every year it seems by the HUMPS to coin a phrase (Hyped-Up Mid-Pricers)… otherwise known as the Black Eyed Peas effect… *groan*

Seaford Scouse

Think the difference between Rich and Daisy last year is that Daisy had a poor pre-season, think Rich has been fairly complete in his preparation this year but I’m not sure, anyone know? In my team atm but with a big ? and Nab microscope pointed firmly over him.

JohnBruyn

Don’t drop him yet mate! But at that price Deledio, Goddard, Franklin and Martin are safer picks that’s all. Remember he could be the POD you need

Phil

What I love about this article is you haven't held back! When I seen the headline I expected names like Higgins, Grimes, Gumbleton etc to be thrown up, but instead you've gone bang with real players…..great stuff

For what it's worth I've got 2 players you've mentioned and I'm gonna stick with my gut;

Brodie Smith: whilst I agree with you that he may not move to the midfield, I still reckon he should average the same, if not more than last year because he's still young and improving. Put simply, his upside outweighs his downside for mine.

Lance Franklin: Only Forward Premium I can think of that can increase his average by 10 points. Also, I recall in one of my best SC finishes (also one of my 1st seasons) I had Buddy and Delidio as starting FWD's, so maybe I'm caught up in the past but it just feels right!!

JohnBruyn

Beautiful – stick to your guns!

@cafosk

Agreed re Franklin. He will be burning from the gf and if tippett is playing, we should see him pump out score like when they paired up end of last season.

The_Kraken

I would add to the Don't Touch (at least certainly Won't Start With) list:

DEF:
– K.Simpson (still scarred by his 32 and 24 from last year, too volatile and will be much cheaper at some stage)
– Hodge (getting older, injury risk and hasn't played a full season since 2007, expect him to start slowly and build for finals)
– Jaensch (do we 100% know his role in Walsh's new scheme?)
– Birchall (like Kade can put in stinkers and will be a bargain at some stage)
– Enright / J.Kelly (in their twilight)
– Walker / Hurn (missed too many games last few years)

MID:
– Any LIONS mid (Rocky, Hanley, Beams, Zorko, Christensen, Rich, Redden, Christensen, MRobinson ) – need to see how that midfield fits together and except for Rich, none of those guys are cheap)
– Stevie J (volatility, suspension risk, getting older, still hurting from trading him in last year)
– Priddis / Ward / Jones / Gibbs / Boak (don't see a lot of upside from where they're priced)

RUC:
– Mummy (from 2009-2014 has missed at least 3 games a year, suspension risk the way he throws himself around)
– S.Martin (obvious one but super expensive and how does he share with Leuey?)
– Big211 (fully priced and must be due to breakdown again (missed 34 games over 2011-2013))
– Lobbe (imagine Ryder will hurt him)
– ANY CATS/HAWKS/PIES/SAINTS ruckman (messy timeshare and/or rubbish)

FWD:
– Harvey (36 and has to drop off at some stage – better as upgrade target)
– Ryder (fully priced and need to see how he shares with Lobbe)
– Chappy (starts the season at 33 i think, and trying to avoid guys on the wrong side of 30 unless they're A-grade studs)

General Soreness

Majestic Kraken!

T-MAC

Would probably throw Sandi into that list

General Soreness

Big211 = Sandi

t_woof

Haven't left yourself much to choose from down back Kraken. Was already slim picking without putting a line through 8 @ 450 >.

The_Kraken

Definitely slim pickings down back this year! Apart from Hibbo, maybe HShaw and Newnes I'm finding it hard to get excited about the backline. Hopefully Waters and Whitecross are fit and best 22 – would be handy cheaper on-field guys to get us through the first several rounds (so we can see which defenders emerge as the best upgrade targets)..

t_woof

Agree, a few Pittard, Heath, Stevensen types from 2013 would be handy for the first 5-6 rounds…..fill up those D5 and D6 spots.

JohnBruyn

I like Kade Simpson and have a good feeling about James Kelly from the cats for some reason. Can see him going low 90s

I N Pieman

What a day. I haven’t got any of those blokes you mentioned either Krak. Must be onto something or been burnt by them & dismissed them. Pretty much agree with everything you’ve said Krak. Nice work!

WindyHillMatt

Pretty Spot on most of them, the only ones id disagree with are

-Hurn is underpriced due to his injuy score of 8 last year, WC have a soft run, not as old as he looks – only 27
– Boak likely to get less attention this year with teams putting more work into gray, only 26 approaching prime, can go massive, just needs to play better against the poorer sides, they have a touch run this year – may play into his favor

T-MAC

Who would you have out of Smith or Hodge? Also how much $$$ would you recommend spending on the backline. My current structure is Smith, Hibberd, H.Shaw, Newnes, Waters, Viojo Rainbow, Goddard, Newman

Tom McVilly

what are some premium backs that I could in my team?
If not kruzer who should be my ruck 2?

T-MAC

Leuenberger. Premium backs could be Smith, Hibbered and Shaw or maybe a Luke Hodge

joe

franklin had a rough transition for the first 6-8 rounds last year, i think he will be able to average 110. he averaged 113 for his last 13 of 2014 in my team ATM.

Kev

Agreed, Joe. Averaged 112.9 after his bye (not inc. finals)

Nathan

What are people’s thoughts on Walters and Adams for f4/5

Redgumwon

Walters is a risk but I'm also going with him. The news out of West Coast is he is training very well at this stage. He looks to be in for round 1

Seaford Scouse

I’d go with the proven Nathan so Walters for me out of those 2, by a fair stretch as well I reckon.

Trab Pukcip

Nobody is putting the little master Mr Ablett on their do not touch list?? Just throwing it out there….is anyone going to place their nads out there hanging from the clothes line for all to see……?????

General Soreness

GAJ first picked.

JohnBruyn

Not having GAJ is potentially season ruining. Few other choices carry that risk so think hard buddy!

Major Mooseknuckles

People are justified in their reservations about baby Jesus, given the shoulder injury and evident mortality… Although, consider this: GAJ has been clocking pb’s in time trials (in the twilight of his career?!), is noted as being in the class of the likes of St Nick with his injury management & is still the focal point of the Suns (at least for time being).

Feel confident guys… Don’t ruin your SC season for the sake of one ‘baby Jesus’… Lock.

I N Pieman

Dools & Wombat might. They don’t mind starting a fight. If he arrives at the first bounce in a wheel chair I’m still picking him.

skindog

Nice one Pieman

Ash

In my team for now, but considering leaving him out. Age, rather severe shoulder injury, but possibly more relevant is the scoring changes? If some of the "weighted" points come off, what is his real average?

shane

I would, but Im somewhat worried about snowdroppers.

t_woof

Thanks for sharing your insight John!

JohnBruyn

Cheers mate

vcloophole

Thanks for sharing John. Also your feedback on this forum is gold! Methodical genius!

JohnBruyn

Glad to hear it mate, that’s what I’ll be going for. Let me know what you’d like yo see here in the future

22andaHalfMen

Have to add Wingard to the do not touch list. Expected big things last year epic fail with injuries etc. Had both he and The Hoff instead of Gray ie Port version of Mitchell v Parker. Cooney = burnman this year too? Past it fantasy wise?

JohnBruyn

Zero love for Cooney

Kev

Also Winged out for 4-6 with a knee. No full preseason = no pick

@RobMcLellan2

Awesome stuff! Currently have the Cruise and Harley in my team at the moment so this hasn't given me great confidence! I am agreed though if he plays FWD instead of ruck then I'll look to switch around my option in the rucks… not sure about Harley, I will downgrade to Titch most likely if he is named round 1.

Tom

Sorry who's titch?

juzzo

Tom Mitchell

Seaford Scouse

Harley only played more than 15 games in a season once in the last 4 Rob (2012), and as JB points out bit of a pattern setting in with his avg. Did have a fine finish to 2013 though so worth keeping in mind for a POD in the run home.

rickthegenius

What are your thoughts on Sam Mitchell in the mid? Priced at 490 k.

JohnBruyn

Get your point but I’d rather Swallow. Mitchell will have games but won’t be in the guys most of the time

skindog

Sam is very consistent, good solid POD imo, been thinking that way too Rick the what????

Leighroy

The guts

rickthegenius

Also, Liberatore. Without cooney and griffen. Yes he could cop the hard tag and fall, but theirs a variable. He could become an ultra premium being the number 1 player at the dogs. Its a risky choice, even if liberatore does get tagged I dont reckon he'll scored less then 90. Its a bit of a risk but I will be starting liberatore in my team and hoping that he will rise to the challenge and become an ultra premium.

I N Pieman

Not sure who performed the IQ test Rick. Maybe you should get a 2nd opinion. From memory when Libba got tagged last year his scores were ordinary to say the least. Remove Griffen & Cooney & he’s getting all the attention. POD sure thing. Would be a very ballsy pick Rick. Make sure you have a replacement planned for round 3.

rickthegenius

Also on the subject or not. Yes he is a champion but hes coming off a shoulder reconstruction and hasnt even been in contact training. He wont score less then 100 but my prediction is he will drop below 650 k this season. Remember the name. Rickthegenius when ablett is down 100k.

General Soreness

There is no doubting he will be down $100K at some stage, enjoy moving heaven and earth getting him in, notwithstanding the lost points each week you dont have him.

vcloophole

General, surely RickThe*ahem!*Genius is trolling. Has to be.

rickthegenius

Remember my name when he rapidly drops his scores and price!

vcloophole

*sigh*

lostlarrikin

WOOSHKA!
Welcome JB.
Quality, balls out stuff mate. Hard to argue with your reasonings on these "10 ft pole punts".
My steer clears – Walker, Howe (injury), Jack (stagnating), Gibbs (seriously, took him this long to have his best season), any KPF (esp Buddy), Hawks mids (tho still considering Hodge in DEF).

T-MAC

I here that Delidio will play more forwards this season and that Dusty will play more in the guts. Maybe does this make us think about dropping Delidio and bringing in Martin

JohnBruyn

Hrmm interestingly timed! Its food for thought but still doesn’t really change my call…maybe makes Franklin more attractive to me

Kev

Agreed, John. Doesn't change my thinking on Lids. He played forward in the final third of the year and finished with 8 hundreds on the trot (ave 119.6)

F1 LOCK

Ash

Not sure. Martin doesn't have the engine that Deledio has, but is a better mark. Doesn't really make sense to swap em?

JohnBruyn

Ash – spot on mate. Dont really see what changes. Lids was forward more than dusty late in the year and averaged more.

T-MAC

That has come from the coaches mouth

T-MAC

Backs: Smith, Hibberd, Shaw, Newnes, Waters, Viojo Rainbow, Goddard, Newman
Mids: Ablett, Fyfe, Sloane, Selwood, Pendlebury, Boekhorst, Cripps, Steele, Heeney, Freeman, Lambert
Rucks: Goldstein, Leuenberger, Cox
Forwards: Delidio, Swan, Goddard, Clark, Hogan, Salem, Laverde, Krakouer.

Would like peoples thoughts on my team please, was wanting to get in Ollie Wines but don't have enough room for him. Feedback is appreciated.

Phil

It's probably the best backline I've seen so far….whether that's the right way to go or not, time will tell.

I like all your premiums, only weakness I see is when/if Leuy goes down you've got no cover. Overall pretty solid

vcloophole

Looks good T-Mac! Nice balance overall 🙂
One big problem tho mate, is in your rucks. No bench cover OR Ryder/Bellchambers starting forward to swing into there (using Cox's DPP) if you have an injury! You need to fix that.
You might have to sacrifice one of your premo mids for Wines if you must have him.

I N Pieman

Not so sure vc. Hopefully a cheap rookie ruckman pops up for round 1. If not I can’t see any rucks I’d like in my fwd line for back up. For mine better scorers will come from the Forward line than backline. So I wouldn’t want to risk a spot for a back up ruck that could clog my list & suck. That being the case I might have a loophole donut & roll the dice for R3. Missing GAJ Pendles Fyfe in one round is my only concern in this team. Other than that it’s pretty good.

vcloophole

I'm convinced that Ryder forward and Cox as the bench is the path to glory this year. Time will tell though, old mate 🙂

Caz

Rory lobb maybe?

vcloophole

Yeah Caz, whichever of those cheap DPP ruckman look most likely to get a few games. NAB watch.

kevwal

What about Zac Clarke, plays plenty and consistent?

vcloophole

Caz, Zac Clarke is a bit awkwardly priced for mine. Could be a very ballsy and fruitful risk however.
For my strategy, he's too much for the bench that's for sure. I'm looking to save coin by having cheapy Cox as the DPP link (I never expect him to play), and as I said, swinging Ryder into the ruck when needed. To pull this off effectively over the duration of the long season, I will have a very strong forward line to cover Ryders absence when needed.

kevwal

Zac Clarke will be part of the forward line, Cox as R3. Clarke is awkwardly priced, but will play every game and consistent 80+, bigger scores when Sandi doesn't play. Strategy is to have ruck backup for Nic Nat and Kruze while scoring points in a usually fickle forward line, and when time comes to upgrade my ruck stocks, will have $300k in the bank, sort of speak.

Seaford Scouse

With you there Caz, will play a fair bit I reckon, (especially when Mummy has his annual vacation), and saved coin for the dpp with Ryder and perhaps Lycett being the only ones I’d go for in that scenario with a big ? over how Ryder fits in and better options than Lycett at the price.

loops

Stanton? Just for the easy +6 every now and then, and can score big in AFL Fantasy. Thoughts?

vcloophole

Loops he's an option for AFL Fantasy…but not for the REAL game, the game that rewards impact and not cheapies; Supercoach.

skindog

It's a mid pricers year this year!!! the game has changed, change with it, or be forgotten!!!

I N Pieman

Venturing into the corridor of uncertainty is a must this season skinny. Finding the value selections especially in defence will be critical.

skindog

Yes sir Piefloater, Stiring the Plot as we speak

skindog

Oh and Throttle, looking forward too Changing my name sir, but having trouble coming up with one that I really like! To be welcomed back to the Dome is an Honour that I never would have thought would be bestowed upon me so thank you sir once again for your kind generosity!

I N Pieman

See you there. Thanks in advance for the 4 points.

skindog

hahahahahahaha, and it begins!!!

Leighroy

Awesome article JB. I can't wait to get my mag to see what higgo has come up with in terms of the ruck issue. It seems to be troubling everyone. Scott Lycett had a big second half to the year but is priced to reflect that. I'm thinking that GWS backup ruck might be the go at R3.

Currently behind Mumford they have Lobb, Downie and Phillips. I think Phillips will get games this year and if Mumford goes down could result in multiple weeks with a lot of time in the middle. Patton and Boyd pinch hit last year and both won't play at GWS this year. The only other option in James Stewart at 198cm but I can't see this happening.

Breakout contender for me this year a little left field is Yeo from West Coast. Had a good start to the year before injury. Take his injury game and round 23 sub game out and he averages 74. Priced at at average of 65 may well bump that up to 74 up to say 80-85 and make some good coin. I know his had a interrupted preseason but will look at NAB form

BCHawks

Finally was able to get the money together and purchased the mag! Can't wait for it to arrive!

I loved the article John but I have to disagree with you on some of these players
For me Fyfe is a lock
I am considering Wells
And I am considering Jacobs

But after reading this article these players are slipping of my list and well you know best as you have one the dam thing before!

Ryan

Am I the only one considering duffman? No more dreaded Ross Lyon r23 resting. Michael Johnson, getting on in age and a knee injury last season. Am I going mad?
Cheers guys

Kev

Throws in too many 50-80 scores. I'd want more consistency for 475k

Ryan

Cheers kev

Redgumwon

I'm really thinking of going with him Ryan. I the Duff man last year in the draft game and watched him closely from the moment I got him. I liked what I saw and I can see more improvement out of him this year. I guess we will have the watch the NAB Cup games to see what Ross does with him this year

mus01

thoughts on bob murphy lads? newly crowned skipper for the dogs will he rise to the occasion and bump up his average from last season?

Ryan

Age the biggest factor for me

Rainman

If Tippett plays pick Buddy

Budd'ys average without Tippett 88.2

Buddy's average with Tippett 113

Giddy Up! Locked in my forward line

Tman

Thanks JB, a most worthy topic and article. Its great to hear we will getting a weekly dose of wisdom from you.

unfortunately i got 4 matches from you list on my current team :0( one on each line. I might be royally screwed. Lol

Will be doing some extra research on them before committing

b smith, kruezer, fyfe and zeabell

Ryan

All respectable selection Tman, especially fyfe, depends on whether you have pendles and ablett.

Kev

Back yourself, Tman. Smith will be a popular pick, as will kruze for those looking for ruck value. ZeeBull is a tease of the highest order. I currently have Fyfe over Pendles

Tman

Thanks Ryan and Kev. I was gonna pick the best players (in my opinion) with no (read very minimal) consideration for bye. Bite the bullet one round if i have to, so to speak. With my thought being this may saves me a trade or two.

is kruz expected play predominently as a forward and pinch hit in the ruck? i thought itd be the other way around.

My only concern with fyfe is how many games i will get out of him.

Ryan

I think Kreuzers problem is that warnock is a spud in the forward line compared with kreuzer

Seaford Scouse

re the kruze konundrum, worth noting that Warnock lost his place to Wood at the end of last season so he might not be the automatic pair-up with him. If its Wood then kruze likely more time up forward, close Nab watch if considering him.

throttlefinger

Hey JB, what's your thoughts on Swannie?

skindog

873622 Hey Throtts, please find a massive welcome to join my league your royal Coachness? Still unsure on Swan myself, want to lock but need more assurance,,,

throttlefinger

Same SkinnyD.

uDonkey

TF have you created throttledome league yet? Love to have another crack with the awesome group last season. email me the code please on [email protected]

thanks in advance.

Kev

Willing to forgive and forget with the Great Dane. Never got his body right in 2014 and he was out of position. Averaged 100+ from '07-'13. Fantastic tank on him so not all that worried about his age.

All that said, if he gets a niggle preseason and is playing mostly forward in nab, massive no from me.

throttlefinger

Well said, Kev. Treated me well 2013. Sure he has that form to hit 105+ in him. NAB will determine, as you've said.

Bonters

Stunning

Tom McVilly

thoughts on Grant burchell? if not grant who could ipick somewhere near his price

Redgumwon

I think I like Duffield better than Birchall at this stage as he seem a little more consistent.

Redgumwon

What do you guys think of P Duffield of Fremantle? I really thinking about selection him at D2 at this stage. My backs are Hibberd, Duffield, Newnes, Higgins, Waters, Edwards, Hamling, Viojo-Rainbow