Mick The Mad IrishmanLOOKING BACK TO LOOK FORWARD

Good day community!

The Mad Irishman is back. Now before you go thinking I’ve been away holidaying, putting my feet up and thinking nothing of Supercoach 2015, please think again.

You might have noticed the little square advertisement on the top right of your screen for the inaugural Jock Reynolds Fantasy Footy Magazine. That – community – has been the result of months of hard work. We first started working on this magazine back in August and after getting a look at the first printed draft over the weekend I can tell you first hand that all the hard work we have put into this project has been worth it.

This magazine my friends, is going to be a game changer. Massive thank you to all of you who have ordered your magazine and I promise you, you won’t be disappointed when they get delivered in February.

Over the next few weeks I will be giving you firsthand guidance on how to build a successful 2015 Supercoach team.

Today we will start by analysing our starting teams from last year.

“Those who don’t know history are doomed to repeat it.”

― Edmund Burke

I love my history and I love the above quote by Edmund Burke. It runs true with almost every problem we face in society today. Unfortunately these problems stem from not learning from the mistakes we have made in the past. The very same thing can be said of our Supercoach teams. If we don’t learn from the errors of our Supercaoch past then we are doomed to repeat them.

For the purpose of all these feature articles I will be using my past teams as an example but you just need to follow the same procedure for your own teams.

MY SUPERCOACH TEAM VERSION 1 – CHECK HOW OUR TEAMS ARE SHAPING UP

2014 was a horrible year for Mad Mick’s Mayhem. I finished with a rank of 2890, still in the top 1% of players but a long way short of the 27th rank from the year before. I set myself a minimum target of inside the top 1000 every year so 2014 will go down as a failure.

Mad Mick Image 1

The first 6 weeks were pure torture resulting in a slip in the rankings all the way back to 40,110 at the end of round 6. I did manage to bring it back down by the end of the byes but was never able to recover from the bad start to make any big impact on the competition.

Mick Image 2

The weekly rankings tell the tale in greater detail. The cluster of really high weekly rankings is concentrated at the start of the year. Sure – there was a few bad rounds in the second half of the year – but these were the exception. In the first third of the year they seemed to be the rule.

I’ve always said you can’t win Supercaoch with your starting squad selections. But you can certainly lose it. That’s what seems to have happened to the Mayhem in 2014.

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Analyzing my Starting Team:

When I revealed my team to the community in 2014 a lot of people thought I was joking around. I wasn’t. This was the team I went into the 2014 season with;

aaM3

As you can see I went into the season with the “Midprice” strategy. My overall squad consisted of 7 Premiums (>$500k), 11 Midprice players ($200k – $500k) and 12 Rookies (<$200k).

The below table gives a breakdown of my squad along with my personal rating of how successful my starting selections were.

I advise you all to do the same thing with your 2014 squad.

As you can see I went into the season with the “Midprice” strategy. My overall squad consisted of 7 Premiums (>$500k), 11 Midprice players ($200k - $500k) and 12 Rookies (<$200k). The below table gives a breakdown of my squad along with my personal rating of how successful my starting selections were. I advise you all to do the same thing with your 2014 squad.

Mitchell – was picked as I saw him as the safest Premium of the top end guys in 2014. He was averaging 105 before he did his hammy and needed to be traded out. You can’t predict who gets injured so this one got a par rating. PAR

Swallow – picked on the back of a strong finish to 2013 and just kept on delivering. Great pick.  MAJOR SUCCESS

Grimes – picked with the scope to improve under a new coach and new era. Started well but after only scoring 23 in round 8 he had to go. FAIL

Bugg – picked on the back of a superb preseason and a massive game in the NAB. Thought he had a chance to cement a spot on the wing. EPIC FAIL

Laidler – picked to make money – made me $107,800 before he got moved on. Not a massive amount but he did contribute decent scores in the first few rounds so he squeezes past a par. SUCCESS

Langdon – he was named round 1 so I picked him. Can’t take the credit for smart coaching, this one was luck. Traded out in round 16 and made me $250k. He also contributed some big scores to my team during the year. MAJOR SUCCESS

Georgiou – picked as a rookie cash cow off a good preseason and NAB cup. Got games early but didn’t play after round 7 and didn’t score well enough to make money. Kept all year as couldn’t afford to waste a trade. Used as a loophole but wasn’t his intended use. EPIC FAIL

Clurey – picked as a rookie cash cow but only played the first game. Used a corrective trade in round three to bring in Langford. Wasted trade. EPIC FAIL

Rockliff – POD selection who I thought had the capability to be my teams Ablett, without the starting price. I was almost right. Needed a safer Captain in the early rounds, as Rockliff only had one Captain worthy score over the 1st 6 rounds. Ablett didn’t come down in price either so should have picked both. Still what everybody deemed a risky pick proved to be a must have come the end of the year. SUCCESS

Liberatore – another value premium who I felt had scope to improve. Priced to average 106 at the start of the year and finished with an average of 110. SUCCESS

Cotchin – yet another value premium who I felt had scope to improve his average on an injury affected 2013. Priced to average 106 at the start of the year but only finished with an average of 101. I kept him all year so got all the good with the bad. FAIL

Murphy – Fallen premium who was only priced to average 90 and had proved he was capable of delivering 110+ average. Not quite but finished with 106. Season long keeper. SUCCESS

Beams – Fallen premium who was only priced to average 90 and had proved he was capable of delivering 115+ average. Delivered and then some . Season long keeper. MAJOR SUCCESS

Thomas – Fallen premium who was only priced to average 64 and had proved he was capable of delivering 100+ average. Got off to a slow start and wasn’t delivering scores or making money. Traded out in round 5. FAIL

Polac – new club, rookie priced, good preseason – first picked rookie. Traded out round 9 for Ablett after making me $275k. He also contributed some big scores to my team during the year. MAJOR SUCCESS

Dunstan – picked for his JS in a rebuilding team and likely to get plenty of opportunities to become a good cash cow. Played, scored well and made money. Traded out in round 8 after making me $180k. SUCCESS

Ellis – new club, rookie priced, good preseason. Was scoring well but got injured in round 5 and traded out round 7 without reaching his potential. Unlucky to get injuried but still did enough to sneak past a par. SUCCESS

Taylor – opportunities in Brisbane to get games and had a forward swing. Had all his big scores in the second half of the year after I traded him out in round 10. Still made $153k. SUCCESS

Ryder – Undervalued , priced to average 90 and capable of 100+. He did manage to average 102 for the year but with no cover when he went down in round 2 I traded him to Mumford. Unlucky to get injuried but only a par for my team. PAR

Sandilands – Fallen premium who was only priced to average 57 and had proved he was capable of delivering 110+ average. Not quite but finshed with 108. Season long keeper. MAJOR SUCCESS

Thurlow – Cheap, forward swing I could use latter down the track. Chance of a game.  When Ryder went down in round 2 I was exposed with no cover and too early to get a forward swing in my team. This made this selection an EPIC FAIL

King – Cheapest player available – picked to use as a Captain loophole as Melbourne had a lot of games on a Sunday. I knew he’d never play but when I used 5 trades all up in my Ruck in 2015 I somehow wish I had one of Currie or Derickx in my bench spots. FAIL

Dangerfield – Did not deliver what I thought he would. The fact that he was in the forward line and everybody had him softened the blow so he just avoids a fail mark. PAR

Martin – Picked in the hope he could go another level with more time in the midfield. Never happened and I think Martin will always be a 100pt player. Season long keeper. PAR

Roughead – never pick KPF. Broke my own rule here and can’t give any other reason only that I didn’t like any forward options in 2014. Did what he was always going to do. Kept him for the season and got the good with the bad. PAR

Wright – got sucked in bad here. Had a super preseason and two massive NAB cup games. Form didn’t carry into the season proper. I got super scared when Wright played a run with role in round 2 and traded him out round 3. EPIC FAIL

Caddy – was the talk of the preseason and had genuine claims for more time in the middle. Got injured in round 3 and had to go but wasn’t exactly setting the world on fire in rounds 1 and 2. FAIL

Higgins – say what you want about Higgins but he did what he was picked to do in 2014. I traded him out in round 11 for $430k when he was averaging 85. Scored points and made money, what more do you want. SUCCESS.

Rohan – limited forward rookies pushed me towards Rohan but just one game is all he had in my team. I had seen enough. Flicked Taylor into the forward line and brought in Dom Tyson in the midfield. Good trade but a wasted one. Selection FAIL

Kennedy-Harris – was a slow burner but did his job beautifully. Traded out in round 10 for $300k making a handy profit of $180k. SUCCESS

REVEALED: HOW C-MONEY WON SUPERCOACH AND DREAMTEAM IN THE SAME YEAR

Breaking Down the Analysis

1. Strategy

Many will assume that this will prove once and for all that the Midprice strategy is not the way to go. Interestingly I haven’t drawn that conclusion from my starting team last year.

aaM5

Yes for the 5 successful picks I made in the midprice section, I had 5 failures. However I’d go into the season knowing that not all the midprice selections I make will be a success. I would aim to get at least a 75% success rate and in hindsight I think it is clear I went into 2014 with too many midpricers.

I still think you need to be able to pick up the likes of Swallow, Murphy, Beams and Sandilands but I feel I chased too many and still missed out on some of the better options like Gray and Parker. If I choose to go into 2015 with a midprice strategy again I will reduce the number of midpricers down to a more manageable 7 or 8.

2. Rookies

Having 5 failures in this department was criminal. It resulted in far too many trades been burned. I didn’t have time to put in enough research to the rookies who would potential play and score well last year for personal reasons outside of my fantasy life. In the end I just ended up picking a lot of them because they were named round 1. Even the smallest amount of my own research would have concluded that the likes of Clurey and Georgiou were unlikely to score well. Tom McDonald was more expensive but played a role that was always going to score more points. Not having Derkicx or Curie in the Ruck baffles me to this day and having one of them would have saved me 3 trades in the Ruck in 2014.

 This really has reinforced that preseason research is key. Needless to say this year I have already addressed this and I know every potentially high scoring rookie player and the ones to avoid. Don’t worry I won’t be keeping all this to myself either. Your Jock Reynolds Magazine has information on every listed player so you’ll be able to decipher the good rookies from the bad. I’ll have a key eye on all the NAB cup games to see who’s likely to get games early and snapping them all up for 2015. There should be no failures in this department in 2015.

3. Midpricers

There are two distinct types of Midprice players – Fallen premiums and break out contenders. I went into 2014 with 5 in the fallen premium and 6 in the breakout contenders.

4. Fallen Premiums

From this category I only had one fail. This was Dale Thomas. Interestingly Dale was the only one of these players who didn’t complete a full preseason. I got sucked into thinking he was obvious value at his price but didn’t take into account the fact he was coming off a limited preseason and a serious injury. I won’t be picking any player in 2015 that isn’t in full training by the 1st of February.

5. Breakout Contenders

From this category I only had one success. This was David Swallow. Of the failures, 3 of them sucked me in with really good preseason campaigns. What is obvious now is that all of Wright, Grimes and Bugg all played roles in the preseason that were different than their roles within the team’s best 22. In hindsight I should have paid more attention to who was missing from the teams instead on just focusing on who is in really good form. Swallow was the only one who showed form in 2013. He had averaged 103 over the last third of the year in 2013, where as the rest of these players had no form line other than what they were showing in the preseason.

6. Premiums

Having a fail in this section is disappointing but I can’t assign any fault to this selection. Even in hindsight all the processes and thought patterns I put into selecting Cotchin still apply. Sometimes you just have to accept that some of your picks just won’t work. I won’t pick Cotchin in 2015 because he burnt me last year but I won’t be surprised if he gets back up to a 110 average by seasons end.

 If anything I started too many value selections at the start of the year and not enough Premiums who were going to be top 6 in their positions. No Gary Ablett was a massive mistake but that falls into my next section.\

7. Captain Selection

Honestly, as bad as my starting team was in 2014 the biggest reason for my really poor start to the year was the fact I didn’t have a reliable captain. This was the biggest lesson I learned from 2014. All the other mistakes I made were fixable with time and patience. The first 6 rounds without a reliable captain accounted for my rank blowing out to 40,110. I had 4 non captain wordy scores of 118×2, 82×2, 115×2 and 94×2 in the first 6 rounds.

 

Summarising Key Lessons learned from 2014

Lesson 1. Reduce my exposure to midprice players – more than 8 is too many.

Lesson 2. Rookie research is key – put in the time to assess who the best options are.

Lesson 3. Ruck cover is important – maybe even more so in 2015. Have a playing rookie on the bench.

Lesson 4. All my selections must have completed a full preseason workload.

Lesson 5. Look at the bigger picture when analysing preseason form. Who isn’t playing is just as important as who is playing and scoring well.

Lesson 6. Breakout contenders will most likely show potential during the previous year, with their final third of the year been better than their first third. I will only select breakout contenders that meet this criterion.

Lesson 7. Pick more premiums who are going to be in the top 6 in their positions come the end of the year.

Lesson 8. Pick Gary Ablett. (This one is so obvious – I must have been drunk last year)

 

Final Word

Of course the lessons I learned may be completely different to the lessons you might gather from your own analysis of your teams from 2014. However I strongly recommend you all follow the same procedure and draw your own conclusions from where you succeeded and where you went wrong in 2014. Don’t just go straight into picking a starting squad, because chances are you will end up repeating history and making all the same mistakes again.

Have a go at looking back before we move forward and join me again next week for “implementing lessons, talking strategy and first picked players.

Stay tuned…..

Mick the Mad Irishman

Mick is one of the production crew members and a key writer for the inaugural Jock Reynolds Fantasy football magazine. He is a risk taker, pint drinker, deep thinker and just that little bit mad, but time and time again he has proved to be one of the best fantasy minds in the country. He has finished in the top 1% of game players for the last 5 years, with a season high finish of 27 in 2013.

Follow the great man on twitter @Da_Mad_Irishman


76 Comments

General Soreness · 27/01/2015 at 19:46

Brilliant read Mick, Lesson 5 is one that really stands out to me, when I reviewed my 2014 errors getting sucked into to some fools gold in the NAB was a massive issue. I will be heeding the stated advices and in particular Lesson 5.

    @Da_Mad_Irishman · 27/01/2015 at 23:38

    Thanks G. Soreness,

    Yep i got burned bad last year with number 5 too – feeling pretty good about 2015 if I can implement all these reviews

      General Soreness · 28/01/2015 at 09:25

      Mick having problems with Lesson 3 in 2015 as there is a significant dearth of bench rook options. Does that make the DPP rucks a priority in one of the forward slots?

Blueprime · 27/01/2015 at 20:00

For a mad bastard you make a lot of sense, Mick. Excellent analysis. Well Done!

    @Da_Mad_Irishman · 27/01/2015 at 23:39

    Thanks Blueprime – what's your teams blueprint look like?

      Blueprime · 28/01/2015 at 03:03

      shaw hodge waters newnes whitecross goddard d mckenzie rainbow
      ablett rockliff pendlebury griffen t mitchell wells heeney boekhorst vandenberg laverde steele
      kreuzer leuenberger cox
      delidio goddard ryder swan clark j freeman hogan daniel

      170K remaining for corrections

Liam · 27/01/2015 at 20:45

Is it to late to order a magazine?

    @Da_Mad_Irishman · 27/01/2015 at 23:40

    Liam,

    I know we were selling pretty fast but there are still some felt for you to snag – follow the links on the website to order one.

Seaford Scouse · 27/01/2015 at 21:01

Brilliant insight and analysis Mick, and tbh I’m not looking forward to the messy autopsy of my own team but will definitely be performing it ASAP.

Great lessons, (the GAJ comment is gold), although I’m not sure I agree with your own conclusion re:mid-pricers, for if you took your own analysis your fallen premiums gave you an 80% success rate and if you applied lesson #4,(all players must have completed a full pre-season), this could have been 100% what I think you have clearly identified though, (and I think this cements a common held belief in fantasy circles), is the danger, (read: prophetic like of challenge of biblical proportions), with picking mid-pricer breakout contenders with you returning a paltry 17%

This alone leads me to think that what you’ve come up with here is quite possibly the single most influential piece of statistical analysis advice you can take from this great game and I reckon you’ve only got yourself to blame if you don’t perform this historic self-analysis and scrutiny of mistakes of the past. Absolute rip-snorter of a piece mate, hats off to ya’!

    derek · 27/01/2015 at 22:55

    Is Judd a fallen premium worth considering

      @Da_Mad_Irishman · 28/01/2015 at 00:15

      I think he is Derek, so long as your not expecting anything over 105 season average

        adam · 28/01/2015 at 13:41

        Personally I say no.. Lesson #9 should be not to pick senior citizens unless his name is Gary Ablett Jnr…

    @Da_Mad_Irishman · 27/01/2015 at 23:47

    Thanks Seaford Scouse (Liverpool fan??)

    I feel I can address the 17% of breakout midpricers by following both rules #1 and #6. If I only go with 2 or 3 of these and the remainder 5 fallen premiums then I should be able to get to that 75%+ success rate.

    Over the next few weeks i'll be going into more detail as I build my 2015 team.

      Seaford Scouse · 28/01/2015 at 08:36

      Nah I’m a blue who’s wishing we still had Cahill Mick!

      Like your thinking mate, reckon rules #4 and #5 come into the reckoning here heavily also, looking forward to the follow-up article already, awesome stuff!

Kev · 27/01/2015 at 22:46

G'day Mick, brilliant article mate. Tingle down the spine reading this. Pre-season research has ramped up even further for me.

    @Da_Mad_Irishman · 27/01/2015 at 23:49

    Thanks Kev – keep watching the site for more gold and I hope you've snagged a magazine as there are plenty more top quality articles jammed in there

      Kev · 28/01/2015 at 09:26

      Mag has been snagged, Mick! Looking forward to it

derek · 27/01/2015 at 22:53

I get caught every year with to many hawks in my team, fair enough as I'm a hawks fan and they are the premiers.

Some reason they are not a good superclass team.

Can anyone see any hawks that could be in teams

    McClungeMagnet · 27/01/2015 at 23:28

    Hawthorn are a champion team, for Supercoach you need a team of champions.

    Hawthorn have too much depth and share the ball too much for any significant scorers.

    And to Mad Mick, you've inspired me. By the way, how you got from 40,000 to top 3,000 is a testament to great trading. Reckon we could all get some nuggets of wisdom from your trading scheme as much as anything.

    @Da_Mad_Irishman · 27/01/2015 at 23:54

    Derek,

    great to have you on board. If you really want to develop as a Supercoach player I want you to go into 2015 and not pick a single Hawk in your starting team. I'm not saying they don't have any quality Supercoach players because they do, but it will open your mind to the rest of the competition and maybe take away from any ill judged call based on your rose colored glasses.

    Try it and see if you improve on 2014 – im betting you will

      General Soreness · 28/01/2015 at 09:26

      Sounds Mad, is brilliant, there is a pattern forming.

        The_Kraken · 28/01/2015 at 14:27

        I agree re Hawthorn. Under Clarko they are a team of role players, with roles potentially changing in the run into the finals (as they prepare for the "serious stuff"). Hawk premiums are legit but also fully priced (how much upside can you legitimately bank on for their top 6/7?) Love the potential of Whitecross and Janderson but where do they fit in? So much quality in that team it's tough to permanently break into the best 22 – as we saw with Hartung & Hallahan last year. Given past volatility in output, Hodge, Birchall, Smitchell, Roughy and even the mighty Spangher will likely be below their starting price at some point during the season (especially as the magic number drops to reflect the rise in rookie prices). Possible exception of Lewis who ended the season like a TRAIN (126 average over last 10, 139 over last 5)

    Kev · 28/01/2015 at 09:27

    Clunge and Mick have nailed this, derek. You've gotta be an emotionless bastard if you want to succeed in SC land

The_Kraken · 27/01/2015 at 23:29

Brilliant analysis, we must always turn the hard spotlight of truth on ourselves, so that we may continually improve and grow as Supercoachers and as men. Personally my biggest failing I have tended to repeat despite swearing black and blue at the start of every season that i will stay strong this time: wasting a trade jumping onto an early season wonder who will inevitably fade back into mediocrity and turn back into a pumpkin when the clock strikes round five. What's that, Jackson Merrett? You've somehow suddenly and magically transformed from a complete spud into a super premium overnight? Seems legit! Cue car crash and loss of momentum. Must. Have. More. Self. Control. Thanks for sharing Mick!

    Kev · 28/01/2015 at 09:37

    That's just the way it goes sometimes, Kraken! Especially with 1st year players it's bloody hard to predict when it will all just click together.

    Rule number 5 re: preseason numbers can also be taken into season proper. Ask yourself why is x-player scoring well? Who is missing from the team? Will there be a role change when the missing player returns?

    The research never stops mate. Good luck for 2015

      The_Kraken · 28/01/2015 at 14:30

      Very true Kev. Watch me jump on Zac Dawson after he doubles his average (to 40)…

Leighroy · 27/01/2015 at 23:31

Great read mick, can’t wait to recieve my mag and get more usefully information. I got sucked into the same fools gold last year in back line rookies, cluerly and alexis killed me

t_woof · 27/01/2015 at 23:35

Bloody legend Mick!!

A-Grade stuff right there mate.

rick · 27/01/2015 at 23:55

Ive only gotten into the jock community in the past month and this is the best read yet. But having ablet isnt a must. Ablet costs more then fyfe by 80k and the difference is 10 poimts. I belidve you could easily spend 80 k on a un proven midpricer and increase your score by 30-40 pointz. Absolute gem of a article though.

    @Da_Mad_Irishman · 28/01/2015 at 00:09

    Thanks Rick,

    Welcome to the community mate – all are welcomed and all views are treated with respect and passion from all fellow Supercoaches – We just love this game here.
    Rick you make a very strong point regarding Ablett vs Fyfe and when I do by next article in this series I will go into why I will be picking him in a little more detail. Stay tuned my friend and I hope to see you on the comment boards around the site. Jump on in.

    Philthy · 29/01/2015 at 13:34

    Hey Rick, GAJ is lock and load C every week, pick him and avoid the heartache of getting torched by your opponent most weeks

@Da_Mad_Irishman · 28/01/2015 at 00:12

Thanks for all the positive feedback guys. We do all this analysis here at JR for our community and the positivity on these comment boards is second to none. It's all you guys that make this place special so massive thanks to each and everyone of you.

I'll answer as many comments as I can if there is anything you want to ask about this particular article

throttlefinger · 28/01/2015 at 00:42

Ripper of an article, Mick.

If you take your first half of the season and copy and paste that to the 2nd half, you'll have mine. Your top learnings mirror my own, along with "Exercise more patience with your prems" and its companion lesson "Save trades".

Your magazine article "Trading your way to Success" will be a HUGE help to players like myself who anxiousness and impatience run through their blood.

And yes, Gaz or bust this year. Ugh. For all those who didn't go Gaz from R1 last season and thinking about it again, remember the first 10 rounds and how you were desperately trying to find ways of slotting him in. Ugh. Unless Baby Jesus's form looks less than amazing, he's a lock.

@BarronVonCrow · 28/01/2015 at 01:16

Gosh darn it, I love you, Mick. And it's not just for your Kade Simpon-esque looks either, it's because you produce quality Supercoach material such as this.

Can't wait to see what you produce next week.

Garglesnarf FC · 28/01/2015 at 08:34

Brilliant Mick!

Bearing in mind lesson 4, will Gaz complete a full preseason.

    General Soreness · 28/01/2015 at 09:29

    Injured shoulder means retains all fitness and mass. Has only missed contact work, which apparently he has now commenced. He'll be right.

    @Da_Mad_Irishman · 28/01/2015 at 12:42

    Great point Garglesnarf,

    I do believe Ablett is back to full workload. Come 1st of February I will be getting a list of injuried players and putting a line through their names. If Abletts on it then I'll have to follow lesson 4

      Sarah · 28/01/2015 at 12:51

      I don't know Mick… Selwood started off the year in blistering fashion last year after an injury interrupted pre-season. Lesson 4 might not really apply to Gaz? Especially when he's already done a 2km PB this pre-season.

        I N Pieman · 28/01/2015 at 13:35

        Agreed Sarah. Selwood had no preseason at all & still had a brialliant season. The fact he didn't have a preseason turned everyone off. If Gary is missing more than 2 limbs for round 1 I might not pick him.

          Sarah · 28/01/2015 at 13:47

          Haha, agreed Pieman!! That'll be the only reason that I won't pick him too!!

Helpage Much · 28/01/2015 at 09:30

Hi Guys, struggling to find the section on supercoach where it shows my initial team from last year, only seem to be able to bring up my 23 team. I'm probably doing something wrong (it's probably something obvious). Any help would be appreciated!!!!!!

    General Soreness · 28/01/2015 at 09:33

    Helpage scroll down on the right hand side of your screen there will be the scoring players from Round 23 listed, click on Round 23 and it will bring up a drop down with all the rounds on it.

      Helpage Much · 28/01/2015 at 09:47

      Thankyou good sir, I can now see the sh*t storm that was my round 1 side. The misery of weeding through it begins!

    DownTheStrair · 28/01/2015 at 09:35

    Hey there Help.. I'm not sure there is a place to check your starting team last year.. you might need to work backwards and figure out what it was by going through all of your season trades. If anyone does know a better way I would be stoked

    PS – didn't think it was possible but the site has gone up to another level this year!

      Fourbells · 28/01/2015 at 12:22

      I have a spreadsheet that I use to keep track on my trades.

      @Da_Mad_Irishman · 28/01/2015 at 12:36

      Log onto your Supercoach team before Friday – on the right hand side of the page just below your team view there is a list of players scores from round 23 – you can change this to look at your player list and scores from any round. Just flick it back to round 1 and that's your starting team

@TG_Footy_Tragic · 28/01/2015 at 12:26

Crikey Mad, This is an absolute GEM of an article!

I was ruthless last year.

My starting squad.
McVeigh, Mitchell, Hanley, Enright, McDonald, Langdon: Langford, Georgiou.
Ablett, Beams, Murphy, Cotchin, Tyson, Polec, Dunstan, Rocky: Aish, Ellis.
Sandi, Sauce: Archie Smith, Derickx.
Danger, Martin, Gunston, Caddy, Higgins, Rohan: JKH, Taylor.

Mitchell FAIL. gone for Swallow. wasted trade but a SUCCESS in long run
Cotch FAIL, but traded to Matt Thomas. Thomas had better output than cotchin and gained money.
Rohan FAIL. see relton roberts.
Caddy FAIL. crap scores. lucky to have $ to move him up.
Tyson PAR. Tyson made $, but booted too early.
Hanley. FAIL. Wasted trade. traded Hanley back in RD9 (cheaper, but still wasted trade).
Ellis made $. SUCCESS
Dunstan SUCCESS. made $. good scores.
Higgins, SUCCESS made $ good scores.
Georgiou. FAIL. made a bit of money, but wasted a trade really.
Aish – SUCCESS. good output. made $
McDonald PAR. made good $
JKH. SUCCESS slow appreciator, but made $
Enright – FAIL. Traded RD 11. lost $.
Polec – RAGING SUCCESS. made almost 400k. part of pendles trade.
Langdon – RAGING SUCCESS. booted for 412k. bought in Malceski.
Langford. SUCCESS. made good cash. good scores also.
Derickx. SUCCESS. Made $. provided cover.
Taylor. RAGING SUCCESS. pivotal in swingset. made good $, provided good cover
Sandi. SUCCESS. great average. exceptional value.
Ablett. SUCCESS. had all his captain worthy scores. its ablett….
McVeigh. SUCCESS. top 3 defender.
Beams. SUCCESS. great scoring. bargain pick.
Murphy. SUCCESS. See beams, just not as good.
Rocky. SUCCESS. Ablett esque scores in between suspensions. Cheaper at start of year.
Sauce. RAGING SUCCESS. Ended as top ruckman, got at 460k.
Danger. PAR. see Mick's reason.
Martin. PAR. See Mick's reason.
Gunston. PAR. made good scores, but booted for roughy later in season. mixed bag.
Smith. PAR. didn't play. used for VC loophole. did what i needed.

Finished 52nd overall.

Definitely will be doing things a little differently this year. be ruthless with injury, but patient with form.

Majestic work Mick.

    General Soreness · 28/01/2015 at 12:30

    Brilliant work Dex, 52nd overall amazing. Lots of Successes in there mate, on the back of what I expect was copious amounts of research as per Micks lessons.

    I N Pieman · 28/01/2015 at 13:49

    Ah Dex. Great minds do think alike. You performed the slaughter Cotchin to Matt Thomas proceedure as well. Thought I was the only crazy bloke to do it. It enabled me to get Griffen & Bartel early. Neither were great till round 23 when they smashed it & won me 3 flags! 52nd brilliant effort. I was in the 400's till round 20. The carnage struck & I blew out to 951st.

      The_Kraken · 28/01/2015 at 14:54

      The finish to last year was disastrous to say the least – hopefully we never see a repeat of it! Dropped from ~80th to ~450th with no trades and 14 donuts over the last 3 rounds. The fear factor could well cause me to hold onto a few trades this time for the last few rounds. With only 1 bye this year you'd have to think there will be resting over the last month of the season. Key will be using trades wisely which means starting with the "right" rookies, not trading in schlubs etc (hindsight is 20/20 vision, but not having burned trades over the first several rounds would've helped enormously (thank you Captain Obvious)). Round 1 can't come soon enough!

Kev · 28/01/2015 at 12:55

It's god damn brutal analysing your team like this, but it's how we grow as coaches. Anyone thinking this is too over their head take 10 minutes to jump on the site and copy down your trade history.

Some lessons I took from my starting team

– I kept 8 of my starting premiums through the year, I want to get this up to 12-13. I lost Gaz and Beams due to injury but so did the majority.
– Too often I used mid pricers to do a sideways trade to the hot player rather than upgrading them to proven guns
– I jumped off rookies too early rather than giving them a chance (read: Langford, Langdon, L. Taylor, Dunstan)
– Not enough cash generation. My team was balanced between press, mid pricers, rooks. This year I'm not going to sit on the fence like that. Guns N Rookies or mid price madness, no in between.

Cheers once again, Mick. You've opened my eyes

I N Pieman · 28/01/2015 at 13:05

Magnificent analysis Mick. Really top shelf & lessons galore for all. Cant wait to read the mag. Had plenty of mates who though Gary was past it & didn’t pick him. And geez did I let them have it. That’s a mistake that only needs to be made once.

Phil · 28/01/2015 at 13:23

Quality piece. Regarding Lesson 6 does anyone know what Luke Parker and Robbie Grays formline was (last third of 2013) Just curious because last years winner said nailing these 2 guys along with Swallow was his main selection to glory. It would appear that you can get a real jump on the competition if you pick breakout contenders, you just gotta pick the right ones (and not too many). Jaesch would have been another.

    I N Pieman · 28/01/2015 at 14:11

    Bit of luck involved to Phil. Picking breakout players is a tough gig. Guys that have done it before & are at unders is a bit safer. I was having a beer with Jock & he told me to get on Darlhaus last year. Jock said he was at unders. We both picked him & for me he was great value & lasted the season. No one had him. Then Jock got wind he stuffed his calf & traded him after a couple of rounds. He only missed a week. You need some luck. He told me to get on Swallow but I didn't. I just didn't rate him. He showed me. I went for Mitchell over Parker even though I had stern advice that Parker was the pick. I went for Malcheski & no one had him. That was a beauty. I went with Cotchin over Wines thinking surely this is the year for Cotchin. It wasn't. That's just the way this awesome game goes. Don't pick any more than 4 risky picks. Becuase at least you can get rid of them before they leak cash. My 4 from last season were Sandi, Jacobs, Darlhaus & Eski. They lasted the whole season. Unfortunately all the premos I picked were not durable enough & I traded almost all of them. Serious lesson learnt.

    Kev · 28/01/2015 at 14:39

    FWIW Phil. Parker's last 8 games for 2013 (inc. finals) went: 110, 86, 71, 121, 34, 110, 118, 80. Average 91.25 (99.4 if you take out that 34). Averaged 89.6 for the year.

    Gray's last 8 (inc. finals) went: 107, 65, 92, 85, 87, 115, 25, 74. Average 81.25 (89.3 without the 25). He averaged 82.1 for the year.

    To start with either of these guys in 2014 would have been a risky pick. Less so Parker, who had improved his average from 52 to 86 from 2011-2013. For him, he was right in the breakout zone (if you missed that article last year do a Google search for it, or ask Jock nicely to post it again). Gray has had all kinds of injury troubles through the years, if you nailed him as a starting pick the SC gods were in a good mood on that day!

      Dools · 28/01/2015 at 15:30

      Hi Kev just seen you post,
      Are my numbers incorrect? I ask as I have been checking on the fridge!

        Kev · 28/01/2015 at 22:16

        G'day there Dools, my mistake mate! You mustn't be hitting the fridge hard enough if you're talking sense haha. I got my numbers from over at fanfooty and was looking at the Yahoo numbers for Parker. Whoops. Gray's numbers are correct though.

      t_woof · 29/01/2015 at 15:17

      I took a punt on Gray in SC Draft last year which paid big divs, but didn't have the balls to in Regular SC.

    The_Kraken · 28/01/2015 at 15:03

    Gray really stepped it up over 2013 – from 82 (ignoring his vests) up til round 12 – up to 97 for the last 10 games – great pointer to his breakout last year, wish i had've seen that!

    Parker went backwards over 2013: 96 to 87 to 77 over the thirds.. maybe the rationale there was that another pre-season would boost his endurance so that he could deliver that 96 average over the full season..

Dools · 28/01/2015 at 15:02

G'day Phil, Just for you I did some number crunching and since u asked it intrigued me also:

Luke Parker ( A success for KrakenKats 2014) form over last 3rd 2013
Preliminary Final 21st Sep Fremantle Loss 74-99 SC points 82
Semi Final 14th Sep Carlton Win 86-62, 110
Qualifying Final 6th Sep Hawthorn Loss 51-105, 98
Round 23 30th Aug Hawthorn Loss 100-112, 101
Round 22 24th Aug Geelong Loss 48-92 , 52
Round 21 18th Aug St Kilda Win 118-59 , 94
Round 20 10th Aug Collingwood Loss 71 – 100, 44
Round 19 4th Aug Western Bulldogs Win 134-99, 95
Round 18 28th Jul Richmond Win 110-63, 70
Round 17 21st Jul West Coast Win 113-79, 80
Round 16 14th Jul GWS Win 171-42, 62

AVG 80.72727273

Robbie (I'm Over priced now ) Gray form over last 3rd 2013
Semi Final 13th Sep Geelong Loss 80-96 , 74 SC points
Elimination Final 7th Sep Collingwood Win 87-63, 25
Round 22 24th Aug Fremantle Loss 60-134 , 115
Round 21 17th Aug Gold Coast Win 113-96 , 86
Round 20 10th Aug Geelong Loss 104-129, 85
Round 19 4th Aug Adelaide Win 107-103 10, 92
Round 18 28th Jul Brisbane Win 71-62 , 65
Round 17 20th Jul St Kilda Win 97-92, 107
Round 16 13th Jul Hawthorn Loss 79-124 ,118

AVG 85.2222222222222222

The important thing Phil is the performance in: 1 age; 2 positional play; 3 Finals experience; 4 In the best 22, and 5 Gut feel for output increase and price. I had Luke from the start 2014 and Robbie by Rnd 12 , as he was a watch very closely.
Hope this helps

    Phil · 29/01/2015 at 00:27

    Great stuff Dools, love your work!!!

Reptile · 28/01/2015 at 15:06

Great stuff Mick. The thing that stands out to me is that there is much to learn from the mistakes we make. Pretty sure we've all been guilty of falling for NAB hype in the past, or of fishing for 'that guy' that no-one else has heard of who has been 'training the house down' all summer. I've learned that I like to make speculative picks, but need to put more research into my fliers rather than just going by gut feeling. This is what I plan to put into action this year!

BCHawks · 28/01/2015 at 20:06

Thanks for the article. I decided to do it for my 2014 team.

Mitchell FAIL Traded him out for Walker going in to round 8 but then later traded him back in for Walker
Hanley FAIL Looked woeful round 1 so traded him for thumper to get cash brought him back cheaper later
Hurn EPIC FAIL Traded him out round 4 for Hanley. Another bad trade
Swallow MASSIVE SUCCESS Only paid 430k for him and he averaged 103
McDonald PAR did ok
Laidler SUCCESS Had him the whole season and helped on a couple of occasions with late outs
Langford SUCCESS Made lots of $
Langdon SUCCESS Made good $ but I traded him out to early
Ablett MASSIVE SUCCESS Had him as captain every week until he got injured
LIberatore SUCCESS Scored well especially around the byes
Beams MASSIVE SUCCESS Consistent high scorer
Murphy SUCCESS Good but not great
Thomas EPIC FAIL Scored terribly
Shiels EPIC FAIL Showed glimpses but was inconsistent and injury didn’t help
Aish SUCCESS Made good $
Polec MASSIVE SUCCESS Made great $
Dunstan SUCCESS Made good $
Cunningham SUCCESS Made good $
Jacobs MASSIVE SUCCESS Paid only 460k and averaged 115
Sandilands MASSIVE SUCCESS Paid only 311 and aveaged 108
Derickx SUCCESS Made good $
Currie EPIC FAIL only played a handful of games
Dangerfield PAR Started poorly but came good
Martin PAR Averaged about what I thought he would
Roughead FAIL Had a few good scores but to many bad ones
Wright FAIL Got fooled by his good pre-season kept him to long to round 11
Caddy EPICFAIL poor scoring traded after round 3
Rohan EPIC FAIL poor scoring traded for Ambrose
McDonough EPIC FAIL Traded after round 1 for Zorko
JKH SUCCESS Made good $

I think what I learnt most in 2014 was that Midpricers are a big risk 4 of them were Major Success for me however 5 were Epic Fails. I was still able to manage to finish rank 224. I think good rookie choices contributed to this as I only had 3 duds. This is how my final team looked.

McVeigh, Swallow, Bartel, Shaw, Hurn, Mitchell, Laidler, Hunt
Selwood, Pendlebury, Sloane, Gray, Liberatore, Kennedy, Murphy, Hanley, Beams, Acres
Jacobs, Sandilands, Brown, Currie
Parker, Dangerfield, D.Martin, Roughead, S.Martin, Caddy, Zorko, Cameron

    RooBoy · 29/01/2015 at 10:05

    Thanks for sharing BC, especially your final team.
    Loved the link-ups and bench coverage you managed to generate, especially the 5 DPP's in the FWD line with Gray in the middle.
    That is where I fell down last year (first SC year) dropping 1500 places in the last round to 2987 as I had 7 donuts in round 23 and only able to cover 2. Also had Bartel on the pine in DEF and no way of getting him to the middle.
    That will be where I'm looking to improve this year.

      BCHawks · 29/01/2015 at 19:53

      Thanks for the reply RooBoy. Yer having the swing sets and the solid bench cover really helped me last year and it is what got me the low ranking. I think it is key to wining supercoach.

Ben · 28/01/2015 at 21:11

Hi Jock just got enough money to purchase the mag and went to purchase it and I noticed that the price is 5 bucks more.

    Ben · 28/01/2015 at 21:34

    Annoyed now I can't get the mag

      Ben · 29/01/2015 at 06:04

      So what's the go jock?

Rocksta · 28/01/2015 at 21:19

Hi Community.
My strategy for this year is to do my own extensive research and Ignore ‘The Hype’ surrounding any particular players/Rookies.
I hear over and over year in and year out ‘watch the NAB Cup Form’.
In most cases, that form doesn’t amount to Shit because the guns are going at 50% to avoid injury.
Anybody can look good against a proven player when they are going at half kilter. Think of how many young players looked good in NAB and didn’t amount to squat when the real stuff started.
My two bobs worth.

NutSack · 29/01/2015 at 19:02

URGENT HELP NEEDED-

How do we log in to get last years teams stats?

It keeps asking me for a username and password—- what is the username?

Need an answer in the next 30 mins!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Cheers from the Sack

    @Da_Mad_Irishman · 29/01/2015 at 20:05

    Sorry NutSack, shes all locked up now as they are doing maintenance to launch the new site tomorrow

      NutSack · 29/01/2015 at 20:15

      🙁

      Damn it!!!!!!!!!!!

      I guess when they said it starts midnight on the 30th they really meant midnight on the 29th.

      Ohhhh well- when I get my magazine I will start from scratch.

juzzy2 · 29/01/2015 at 22:02

hi fellas what are your thoughts on bob murphy? could the newly dogs skipper bump up that average from last season??

    Redgumwon · 01/02/2015 at 15:20

    I love Bob Murphy but there might be better value around. I like Duffield around the same price. But I will be watching how Ross uses him in the NAB Cup games

Redgumwon · 01/02/2015 at 15:18

What do you guys think of Josh Caddy this year? I'm really tempted to take a punt of the lad again this year. Early on he started as sub and then got injured. He did come home hard in the back end of the season and finals. He might be looking for to have a break out year this year.

I'd love to hear the forum members thoughts on Caddy and maybe a few other that might be in line for break out season

    Coochgrass · 03/02/2015 at 18:58

    G'day Red. I am on the Caddy train this year ( a cats supporter though). stayed away last year but like his finish to the season and his job security. Hpoing he can be a stepping stone to Rocky or Pendles around bye or before or maybe at best a M8 Keeper?

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