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Supercoach 2015 – Brendan Goddard

Published by Jock on

Is BJ that F1 keeper?

TG Footy Tracgic - DexterI’m a relative newcomer to SuperCoach. I started in 09 (I played another form of the game for two years before my eyes were opened). I finished about 20,000 odd and instantly discarded the other game and never looked back.

When I started, BJ was the first picked premium defender in everyone’s team. For a few years, it was always him and Lids – D1 & D2. This year, I can see him and Lids being prominent in our teams, but as forwards.

I was caught unawares when I saw BJ become a fwd. I assumed him and Heppell filled Watson’s void in the guts, but, stats don’t lie – he spent 14% of his disposals inside the 50m arc (the most in his career to date!)

I’m not complaining though, I was pretty bloody chuffed – we have a bloody gem in the forward. Think of him as another midfielder. 110 average at least. I think he will be the number 1 forward for 2015, followed by Lids and Swanny – should he regain form. Gray will feature, but not as much. (I have a gut feel he will cop more attention) – that’s my opinion though.

BJ Goddard should be the #1 lock in our forward line in 2015. Here’s why:

2015 Price: $548,800
2015 Position: MID/FWD
Games last season: 19
Average last season: 102.1
100+ Games last season: 12
Sub 80 games last season: 6
Price range last season: $465K – $581K
Missed games last season: 3; RD 5-6 (groin), Rd 17 Suspended.
Significant history: Goddard has averaged 100+ EVERY year since 2006, except 2007 (90.1) – Due to an ACL
Can get suspended, wears heart on sleeve.
Drafted at pick 1 in the 2002 National draft.

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Yes, you saw it above; Goddard has not dropped below a 100 season average since 2007, where he suffered an ACL tear and reconstruction.

He has only gone above a 110 season average twice, 115.6 in 2009 – Saints were minor premiers, and premiership bridesmaids.

His monster year came in 2010 – I’m guessing the hurt of letting a flag slip fuelled him – he pumped out a monumental 130.2 average (2nd overall – behind Swanny). The Saints finished 3rd in the H&A season and were (again) premiership bridesmaids. (GO PIES!!)

I really hate to say it, but I feel the bombers have a really solid team to push for top 4, and history has shown – Goddard in a top 4 team scores well.

Goddard has proven he has a massive ceiling, going 150+ 12 times in his 170 games since 2006 – for a high of 188.

In fact, excluding his ACL game in 2007 and his groin injury (warm up injury) in 2014; he has only gone below 80 26 times – in 168 games! 15.5% of games since 2006 have been sub 80 with a lowest of 52.

In the same timeframe – he has gone 100+ 106 times. 106 of 168 games BJ has gone 100+, that’s 63% of games at 100 Supercoach points or more.

Analyzing his more recent form, we see:
Image 1

Removing the 11 from the game he shouldn’t have played – we see his season average climb to 107.2 SC points, and astoundingly – his average in losses jumps to 105.14 – a negligible difference.

BJ scored 37 tons in his 61 games since 2012, 64.9% of his games (continuing the longer career trend). Also of note, 8 of his 80-99 point games have been between 92 and 97.

We all know BJ loves a tiff, he’s been suspended for 3 games in 3 years – and each time he has returned he has returned with at least 2 sub 80 scores in the 4 weeks that have followed. Take it as a coincidence or as a significant stat if you will.

If BJ’s season finished in rd16 when he got suspended he would have averaged 106.9. (It would have been 114.9 if you omit that turd when he was injured before the game). This tells us he finished 2014 in relatively poor form.

A nice little stat to take note of; his disposal efficiency has always been great, registering 77% DE in 2014, 77% in 2013 & 75% in 2012. He also had the 10th highest clearance efficiency of the top 150 clearance winners in the AFL.

Statistically, BJ had his worst year in over 5 years. Down in total disposals, Contested Possessions, Uncontested Possessions, Tackles & score assists from his previous 5 years. This could (mostly) be put down to his increased time up forward.

RISK FACTORS

Loves a swing, could get suspended.
Will be 30 in 2015, downward slide?

SELECTION PURPOSE

Pick him as a premium F1-F2 keeper. Start him and watch the points roll in.

If you are a little skeptical of his output, definitely watch and mark as an upgrade target. He should be in every forward line in the back end of the 2015 season.

THE GOOD

  • Elite Efficiency
  • Effectively an extra midfielder – in the forward line.
  • High Ceiling. VC option in some instances.
  • Doesn’t need a lot of the pill to ton up. 3 of his 2014 tons came from 22 or less disposals.
  • Hasn’t averaged less than 100 SC since 2007.

THE DOWNSIDE

  • Propensity to get reported and suspended.
  • Could be transitioning to a more permanent forward position.
  • Will age weary him?

THE VERDICT

Goddard was my first picked Forward this year. I feel that 548k is slightly unders for what he can provide. He is the Dangerfield of 2015. Put him in the forward line for midfield-level output.

Some may say he’s on the decline. I say he’s just had a slight dip.
He is a proven premium player – plain and simple. Gray has had one standout year.

I’ll bet, if he was a defender again he’d have gone in everyone’s team faster than you can say lock.

It so happens, he is a forward and still just as much a lock.

BJ Goddard over Gray for mine – Welcome to SoapOnARope Brendon.

100% YES

Dexter

Twitter: @TG_Footy_Tragic

 

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AFL Supercoach Legend Jock ReynoldsThis article has been penned by an elite Supercoach analyst hand picked from the talent pool of the Jock Reynolds Fantasy Footy Community. He has stood up within our community as a man of fantasy substance, and has displayed the spirit of togetherness, positivity and community that we value significantly.

 


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David Johnson

Agreed … pretty much a lock for me too. Always concerning spending $550k for a FWD, but he's generally pretty reliable, and yes, his "real" average is 107 (excl. sub game), so he's technically under-priced.

Only concern I have is whether or not he will start to decline … he only averaged 92 in his last 6 games (vs. 115 before that, excl. sub).

@LekBlog

Had him locked in before I read this, have him double-locked in now. He's a gun even though he's a flog and I have a feeling he'll be in the midfield even more this year.

Great writeup mate

General Soreness

Brilliant and enlightening Dex, locked him in and have thrown away the key.

Rayza Ray

What I worry about Lads is this if the 10-14 solidified A grade players are suspended through this ASADA verdict… I have heard and it is 'purely speculation' they could miss the first 5-7 matches. What will that mean for Goddard's output… Bi-Jeepers he'd get some attention meaning he may find it hard to get the 25 touches we need. For me he is not a lock until all that crap is resolved.

Kev

Won't any ASADA suspensions be backdated?

throttlefinger

Well done as always. Is my F2 with Lids as my F1 lock. Two less positions to worry about.

t-mitch

Great article, currently sitting with lids, bj and smith as F1-3 before dropping down to belchambers at 4, and then rookies, just wondering if this leaves my forward line a bit vulnerable?

I N Pieman

Agree with Rayza about the ASADA thing. If that ever gets resolved. If a bunch of them got suspended he would be a marked man & I wouldn’t pick him. He’d be in a very weak team.I don’t have him in my team for that reason at the moment. If it does get swept under the carpet then he will probably take Dustys spot. Great piece as always Dex.

Boydo

Great review !! I disagree with a few predictions though:

1. Essendon won’t be top 4 they won’t be top 8

2. Goddard will not average 110 IMO he will drop slightly from 2014

3. Goddards midfield time will reduce in 2015 review last 5 games of 2014

4. Goddard will not finish top Forward, he may squeeze in top 5 but more likely top 10

That being said he is worthy of a spot in your forward line possibly a starting position but for me he will be an upgrade option.

Ready for the criticism !!

Richard

I'm in agreeance boydo. I think he will average roughly the same but Essendon have very tough early season draw, so I expect a dip in output early followed by a raise in productivity. I think he will easy finish top 6 fwds but an upgrade target for me. Injury taken into account I prefer saving 50k and locking in Bennell who has a much softer early season draw.

Boydo

Good work Richard, good luck in 2015. Come on NAB cup we are ready for footy!!

@TG_Footy_Tragic

Hey Boydo,
This is why i love our community – we can disagree and not be judgemental on each other.
I respect your opinion, and i can see the validity in them.

I just have a gut feel, and analysing the stats – i just felt like BJ isn't finished 🙂
Cheers.

taylorwoof

Good piece Dex!!

Worthy selection in any side.

Goddard has been in and out of my Higginator since it was released. With him having the Round 11 BYE, i'm leaning towards an upgrade target over a starter.

Sorry to steer off track a little, but is anyone starting Robbie Gray? Haven't seen him mentioned above when talking about forward keepers. He's been F1 in every Higginator i've saved.

Itchy Nuts Pieman – Cheers for the info on Lambert there! Might slot him into the bench now. Haven't been able to settle on F8.

****Scrub the Round 11 BYE for Goddard, Alski informs me he has Round 12 BYE. ……I need more coffee.

Alski

Gray is in my side and has been from the start , Goddard has the rd 12 bye doesnt he ? If it's 11 he will be going into my side 🙂

taylorwoof

Thanks Alski, you're right Goddard has the Round 12 BYE…..*Back the the Higginator i go*

ally

no worries

WombatsFC

Thanks Dex I hadn't considered him at all but this article enabled me to see him as a forward rather than just a tool. If the Bombers field a team this year he looks to be a safe bet but that's a lot of $ for player that I don't want to cheer.

Dools

I 'm not a fan of the man but you got to respect his playing ability . I think he is a solid choice as an F1 or -2 . there is plenty of sage advice for both the Ins and the Outs so it's a gut call for all of us.
50 – 50 for me and lets see the ASADA results and his form.
I ' m still struggling with a team name, maybe the Flogard Follies !

Dools

I loved this article Dex, full of info and choice bits.
Well done mate

@TG_Footy_Tragic

Cheers Dools,

Apologies to all for my late comments on my article.

Had a wedding to attend this weekend past – so I only had my phone, and you can't comment in safari.

I have a feeling, looking at his stats and Bombers on the rise – he'll dominate.

Gray, for mine is an upgrade target at best. needs to show he wasn't a one year wonder.