Supercoach 2015 – Brendan Goddard
Is BJ that F1 keeper?
I’m a relative newcomer to SuperCoach. I started in 09 (I played another form of the game for two years before my eyes were opened). I finished about 20,000 odd and instantly discarded the other game and never looked back.
When I started, BJ was the first picked premium defender in everyone’s team. For a few years, it was always him and Lids – D1 & D2. This year, I can see him and Lids being prominent in our teams, but as forwards.
I was caught unawares when I saw BJ become a fwd. I assumed him and Heppell filled Watson’s void in the guts, but, stats don’t lie – he spent 14% of his disposals inside the 50m arc (the most in his career to date!)
I’m not complaining though, I was pretty bloody chuffed – we have a bloody gem in the forward. Think of him as another midfielder. 110 average at least. I think he will be the number 1 forward for 2015, followed by Lids and Swanny – should he regain form. Gray will feature, but not as much. (I have a gut feel he will cop more attention) – that’s my opinion though.
BJ Goddard should be the #1 lock in our forward line in 2015. Here’s why:
|Games last season:||19|
|Average last season:||102.1|
|100+ Games last season:||12|
|Sub 80 games last season:||6|
|Price range last season:||$465K – $581K|
|Missed games last season:||3; RD 5-6 (groin), Rd 17 Suspended.|
|Significant history:||Goddard has averaged 100+ EVERY year since 2006, except 2007 (90.1) – Due to an ACL
Can get suspended, wears heart on sleeve.
Drafted at pick 1 in the 2002 National draft.
Yes, you saw it above; Goddard has not dropped below a 100 season average since 2007, where he suffered an ACL tear and reconstruction.
He has only gone above a 110 season average twice, 115.6 in 2009 – Saints were minor premiers, and premiership bridesmaids.
His monster year came in 2010 – I’m guessing the hurt of letting a flag slip fuelled him – he pumped out a monumental 130.2 average (2nd overall – behind Swanny). The Saints finished 3rd in the H&A season and were (again) premiership bridesmaids. (GO PIES!!)
I really hate to say it, but I feel the bombers have a really solid team to push for top 4, and history has shown – Goddard in a top 4 team scores well.
Goddard has proven he has a massive ceiling, going 150+ 12 times in his 170 games since 2006 – for a high of 188.
In fact, excluding his ACL game in 2007 and his groin injury (warm up injury) in 2014; he has only gone below 80 26 times – in 168 games! 15.5% of games since 2006 have been sub 80 with a lowest of 52.
In the same timeframe – he has gone 100+ 106 times. 106 of 168 games BJ has gone 100+, that’s 63% of games at 100 Supercoach points or more.
Analyzing his more recent form, we see:
Removing the 11 from the game he shouldn’t have played – we see his season average climb to 107.2 SC points, and astoundingly – his average in losses jumps to 105.14 – a negligible difference.
BJ scored 37 tons in his 61 games since 2012, 64.9% of his games (continuing the longer career trend). Also of note, 8 of his 80-99 point games have been between 92 and 97.
We all know BJ loves a tiff, he’s been suspended for 3 games in 3 years – and each time he has returned he has returned with at least 2 sub 80 scores in the 4 weeks that have followed. Take it as a coincidence or as a significant stat if you will.
If BJ’s season finished in rd16 when he got suspended he would have averaged 106.9. (It would have been 114.9 if you omit that turd when he was injured before the game). This tells us he finished 2014 in relatively poor form.
A nice little stat to take note of; his disposal efficiency has always been great, registering 77% DE in 2014, 77% in 2013 & 75% in 2012. He also had the 10th highest clearance efficiency of the top 150 clearance winners in the AFL.
Statistically, BJ had his worst year in over 5 years. Down in total disposals, Contested Possessions, Uncontested Possessions, Tackles & score assists from his previous 5 years. This could (mostly) be put down to his increased time up forward.
Loves a swing, could get suspended.
Will be 30 in 2015, downward slide?
Pick him as a premium F1-F2 keeper. Start him and watch the points roll in.
If you are a little skeptical of his output, definitely watch and mark as an upgrade target. He should be in every forward line in the back end of the 2015 season.
- Elite Efficiency
- Effectively an extra midfielder – in the forward line.
- High Ceiling. VC option in some instances.
- Doesn’t need a lot of the pill to ton up. 3 of his 2014 tons came from 22 or less disposals.
- Hasn’t averaged less than 100 SC since 2007.
- Propensity to get reported and suspended.
- Could be transitioning to a more permanent forward position.
- Will age weary him?
Goddard was my first picked Forward this year. I feel that 548k is slightly unders for what he can provide. He is the Dangerfield of 2015. Put him in the forward line for midfield-level output.
Some may say he’s on the decline. I say he’s just had a slight dip.
He is a proven premium player – plain and simple. Gray has had one standout year.
I’ll bet, if he was a defender again he’d have gone in everyone’s team faster than you can say lock.
It so happens, he is a forward and still just as much a lock.
BJ Goddard over Gray for mine – Welcome to SoapOnARope Brendon.
|This article has been penned by an elite Supercoach analyst hand picked from the talent pool of the Jock Reynolds Fantasy Footy Community. He has stood up within our community as a man of fantasy substance, and has displayed the spirit of togetherness, positivity and community that we value significantly.|