Is BJ that F1 keeper?

TG Footy Tracgic - DexterI’m a relative newcomer to SuperCoach. I started in 09 (I played another form of the game for two years before my eyes were opened). I finished about 20,000 odd and instantly discarded the other game and never looked back.

When I started, BJ was the first picked premium defender in everyone’s team. For a few years, it was always him and Lids – D1 & D2. This year, I can see him and Lids being prominent in our teams, but as forwards.

I was caught unawares when I saw BJ become a fwd. I assumed him and Heppell filled Watson’s void in the guts, but, stats don’t lie – he spent 14% of his disposals inside the 50m arc (the most in his career to date!)

I’m not complaining though, I was pretty bloody chuffed – we have a bloody gem in the forward. Think of him as another midfielder. 110 average at least. I think he will be the number 1 forward for 2015, followed by Lids and Swanny – should he regain form. Gray will feature, but not as much. (I have a gut feel he will cop more attention) – that’s my opinion though.

BJ Goddard should be the #1 lock in our forward line in 2015. Here’s why:

2015 Price: $548,800
2015 Position: MID/FWD
Games last season: 19
Average last season: 102.1
100+ Games last season: 12
Sub 80 games last season: 6
Price range last season: $465K – $581K
Missed games last season: 3; RD 5-6 (groin), Rd 17 Suspended.
Significant history: Goddard has averaged 100+ EVERY year since 2006, except 2007 (90.1) – Due to an ACL
Can get suspended, wears heart on sleeve.
Drafted at pick 1 in the 2002 National draft.

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Yes, you saw it above; Goddard has not dropped below a 100 season average since 2007, where he suffered an ACL tear and reconstruction.

He has only gone above a 110 season average twice, 115.6 in 2009 – Saints were minor premiers, and premiership bridesmaids.

His monster year came in 2010 – I’m guessing the hurt of letting a flag slip fuelled him – he pumped out a monumental 130.2 average (2nd overall – behind Swanny). The Saints finished 3rd in the H&A season and were (again) premiership bridesmaids. (GO PIES!!)

I really hate to say it, but I feel the bombers have a really solid team to push for top 4, and history has shown – Goddard in a top 4 team scores well.

Goddard has proven he has a massive ceiling, going 150+ 12 times in his 170 games since 2006 – for a high of 188.

In fact, excluding his ACL game in 2007 and his groin injury (warm up injury) in 2014; he has only gone below 80 26 times – in 168 games! 15.5% of games since 2006 have been sub 80 with a lowest of 52.

In the same timeframe – he has gone 100+ 106 times. 106 of 168 games BJ has gone 100+, that’s 63% of games at 100 Supercoach points or more.

Analyzing his more recent form, we see:
Image 1

Removing the 11 from the game he shouldn’t have played – we see his season average climb to 107.2 SC points, and astoundingly – his average in losses jumps to 105.14 – a negligible difference.

BJ scored 37 tons in his 61 games since 2012, 64.9% of his games (continuing the longer career trend). Also of note, 8 of his 80-99 point games have been between 92 and 97.

We all know BJ loves a tiff, he’s been suspended for 3 games in 3 years – and each time he has returned he has returned with at least 2 sub 80 scores in the 4 weeks that have followed. Take it as a coincidence or as a significant stat if you will.

If BJ’s season finished in rd16 when he got suspended he would have averaged 106.9. (It would have been 114.9 if you omit that turd when he was injured before the game). This tells us he finished 2014 in relatively poor form.

A nice little stat to take note of; his disposal efficiency has always been great, registering 77% DE in 2014, 77% in 2013 & 75% in 2012. He also had the 10th highest clearance efficiency of the top 150 clearance winners in the AFL.

Statistically, BJ had his worst year in over 5 years. Down in total disposals, Contested Possessions, Uncontested Possessions, Tackles & score assists from his previous 5 years. This could (mostly) be put down to his increased time up forward.

RISK FACTORS

Loves a swing, could get suspended.
Will be 30 in 2015, downward slide?

SELECTION PURPOSE

Pick him as a premium F1-F2 keeper. Start him and watch the points roll in.

If you are a little skeptical of his output, definitely watch and mark as an upgrade target. He should be in every forward line in the back end of the 2015 season.

THE GOOD

  • Elite Efficiency
  • Effectively an extra midfielder – in the forward line.
  • High Ceiling. VC option in some instances.
  • Doesn’t need a lot of the pill to ton up. 3 of his 2014 tons came from 22 or less disposals.
  • Hasn’t averaged less than 100 SC since 2007.

THE DOWNSIDE

  • Propensity to get reported and suspended.
  • Could be transitioning to a more permanent forward position.
  • Will age weary him?

THE VERDICT

Goddard was my first picked Forward this year. I feel that 548k is slightly unders for what he can provide. He is the Dangerfield of 2015. Put him in the forward line for midfield-level output.

Some may say he’s on the decline. I say he’s just had a slight dip.
He is a proven premium player – plain and simple. Gray has had one standout year.

I’ll bet, if he was a defender again he’d have gone in everyone’s team faster than you can say lock.

It so happens, he is a forward and still just as much a lock.

BJ Goddard over Gray for mine – Welcome to SoapOnARope Brendon.

100% YES

Dexter

Twitter: @TG_Footy_Tragic

 

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35 Comments

David Johnson · 17/01/2015 at 20:14

Agreed … pretty much a lock for me too. Always concerning spending $550k for a FWD, but he's generally pretty reliable, and yes, his "real" average is 107 (excl. sub game), so he's technically under-priced.

Only concern I have is whether or not he will start to decline … he only averaged 92 in his last 6 games (vs. 115 before that, excl. sub).

@LekBlog · 17/01/2015 at 21:01

Had him locked in before I read this, have him double-locked in now. He's a gun even though he's a flog and I have a feeling he'll be in the midfield even more this year.

Great writeup mate

General Soreness · 17/01/2015 at 22:05

Brilliant and enlightening Dex, locked him in and have thrown away the key.

Rayza Ray · 17/01/2015 at 22:45

What I worry about Lads is this if the 10-14 solidified A grade players are suspended through this ASADA verdict… I have heard and it is 'purely speculation' they could miss the first 5-7 matches. What will that mean for Goddard's output… Bi-Jeepers he'd get some attention meaning he may find it hard to get the 25 touches we need. For me he is not a lock until all that crap is resolved.

    Kev · 18/01/2015 at 09:23

    Won't any ASADA suspensions be backdated?

throttlefinger · 17/01/2015 at 23:06

Well done as always. Is my F2 with Lids as my F1 lock. Two less positions to worry about.

t-mitch · 18/01/2015 at 08:30

Great article, currently sitting with lids, bj and smith as F1-3 before dropping down to belchambers at 4, and then rookies, just wondering if this leaves my forward line a bit vulnerable?

    I N Pieman · 18/01/2015 at 09:59

    No swan t-Mitch. The Smith I assume is Devon. I’m looking at 3 onfield rookies in the fwd line.

      Phil · 18/01/2015 at 10:06

      G'day Pieman. 3 rookies in the FWD line here too, premiums being Goddard, Delidio & Swan. I'm not too concerned about Goddard and ASADA, someone's gotta score the points even if they lose heavily.

      Great review, it's made me feel a little bit more secure about one of my locks.

        I N Pieman · 18/01/2015 at 10:45

        Throts & Phily. I have Salem at F4 Krakeour F5 (being groomed for half back sweeper role) & Lambert at F6 (the next Barlow/Miles from the VFL. With Steele & Nugget Daniel on the Pine. Hope it pans out that way. I have Lids & Swan & going back & forth between Martin & Goddard. I really hope Lambert comes off the rookie list. Last game he played in the VFL he had 32 disposals 17 clearances 15 inside 50's & kicked 4. Mature age gun. If he gets named round 1 & isn't the sub he's on the ground.

      throttlefinger · 18/01/2015 at 10:26

      Going back and forth with a back three of garlett, salem and hogan or just got all sub $130K and beef up the midfield more. Will all depend on the pickins come R1, INP.

      t-mitch · 18/01/2015 at 12:45

      Yeah I N, Devon smith, I think he’s about to explode, and with the addition of griff, this guy is going to run a muck. I’m not sold on swanny, I think we are going to see more of the same from him as last year. I think I might be the only bloke it the world not sold on him,

        I N Pieman · 18/01/2015 at 13:32

        Fair enough Tmitch. If he looks in good Nic for round 1 it could be dangerous not to have him.

        Richard · 18/01/2015 at 13:47

        im on the same swan train as you. I See much more value in Thomas than swan this year. I reckon they will average similar. Swan won't be in collingwoods next premiership team, so why would they limit the minutes of a young up and coming mid to give it to the butcher? Swan is a no start, no touch for mine this year…but I realise that puts us in the minority.

          t-mitch · 18/01/2015 at 14:29

          The way i see it is swanny is the perfect “wait and see” trade, leave him out for rd 1, if he drops elite scores get him in and make some cash at the end of rd 2? Thoughts???

            Richard · 18/01/2015 at 18:24

            Yeah…one of those ones though where you have to keep some $$$ up your sleeve so you aren't forced to use 2 trades that early to get it done. But I think you will have an ok idea of his intent in the preseason. Still coming back from hip surgery…big risk for me. He will average more than this year but I only have him for about 95, not 110 like others are talking.

        Bog rat · 18/01/2015 at 23:40

        Agree with you on Smith

I N Pieman · 18/01/2015 at 09:14

Agree with Rayza about the ASADA thing. If that ever gets resolved. If a bunch of them got suspended he would be a marked man & I wouldn’t pick him. He’d be in a very weak team.I don’t have him in my team for that reason at the moment. If it does get swept under the carpet then he will probably take Dustys spot. Great piece as always Dex.

Boydo · 18/01/2015 at 10:18

Great review !! I disagree with a few predictions though:

1. Essendon won’t be top 4 they won’t be top 8

2. Goddard will not average 110 IMO he will drop slightly from 2014

3. Goddards midfield time will reduce in 2015 review last 5 games of 2014

4. Goddard will not finish top Forward, he may squeeze in top 5 but more likely top 10

That being said he is worthy of a spot in your forward line possibly a starting position but for me he will be an upgrade option.

Ready for the criticism !!

    Richard · 18/01/2015 at 10:24

    I'm in agreeance boydo. I think he will average roughly the same but Essendon have very tough early season draw, so I expect a dip in output early followed by a raise in productivity. I think he will easy finish top 6 fwds but an upgrade target for me. Injury taken into account I prefer saving 50k and locking in Bennell who has a much softer early season draw.

      Boydo · 18/01/2015 at 10:59

      Good work Richard, good luck in 2015. Come on NAB cup we are ready for footy!!

    @TG_Footy_Tragic · 19/01/2015 at 11:21

    Hey Boydo,
    This is why i love our community – we can disagree and not be judgemental on each other.
    I respect your opinion, and i can see the validity in them.

    I just have a gut feel, and analysing the stats – i just felt like BJ isn't finished 🙂
    Cheers.

taylorwoof · 18/01/2015 at 14:22

Good piece Dex!!

Worthy selection in any side.

Goddard has been in and out of my Higginator since it was released. With him having the Round 11 BYE, i'm leaning towards an upgrade target over a starter.

Sorry to steer off track a little, but is anyone starting Robbie Gray? Haven't seen him mentioned above when talking about forward keepers. He's been F1 in every Higginator i've saved.

Itchy Nuts Pieman – Cheers for the info on Lambert there! Might slot him into the bench now. Haven't been able to settle on F8.

****Scrub the Round 11 BYE for Goddard, Alski informs me he has Round 12 BYE. ……I need more coffee.

    t-mitch · 18/01/2015 at 15:49

    Grey is a priority 1 upgrade target, refuse to start at his price. Considered very briefly to start in the mids but looking elsewhere, but will be in before the business end

    I N Pieman · 18/01/2015 at 18:09

    No worries Twoof. My only concern is what they did with Miles. But when he came in (& Maric) the Tigers fortunes changed. Will they do the same thing with Lambert of have they learnt their lesson. The issue I have with Robbie Gray is he's very highly priced & Port has a tough draw to start with. Priority upgrade target for sure. I'm hoping he's cheaper when the byes roll around.

      taylorwoof · 18/01/2015 at 18:44

      Had a look at Port Adelaide's draw, you're right…no favours there.

      An average of Gray's 2014 scores against the 12 sides Port meets pre bye equates to 107.5 (Priced at 111.1 ave in 2015)

      You're definitely right there INP, should be at worse a small price drop come Port's bye in Round 13.

      At the moment i'm going to back him in. Happy to take a small price drop if he can replicate the 2014 pre bye output for my side in 2015.

        I N Pieman · 18/01/2015 at 19:40

        The other thing twoof is his injury history. It’s pretty bad. He had a monster season. Miles better than any other. Can you back him in to do it again. I’m not so sure. But if your going to back your man you have to do it. Personally I need to see some more if it.

Alski · 18/01/2015 at 14:45

Gray is in my side and has been from the start , Goddard has the rd 12 bye doesnt he ? If it's 11 he will be going into my side 🙂

    taylorwoof · 18/01/2015 at 14:47

    Thanks Alski, you're right Goddard has the Round 12 BYE…..*Back the the Higginator i go*

      ally · 18/01/2015 at 15:59

      no worries

WombatsFC · 18/01/2015 at 15:18

Thanks Dex I hadn't considered him at all but this article enabled me to see him as a forward rather than just a tool. If the Bombers field a team this year he looks to be a safe bet but that's a lot of $ for player that I don't want to cheer.

Dools · 18/01/2015 at 15:26

I 'm not a fan of the man but you got to respect his playing ability . I think he is a solid choice as an F1 or -2 . there is plenty of sage advice for both the Ins and the Outs so it's a gut call for all of us.
50 – 50 for me and lets see the ASADA results and his form.
I ' m still struggling with a team name, maybe the Flogard Follies !

Dools · 18/01/2015 at 15:39

I loved this article Dex, full of info and choice bits.
Well done mate

    I N Pieman · 18/01/2015 at 18:17

    Where the “to the fridge” dools. You in rehab. If so I’m in room 14.

    @TG_Footy_Tragic · 19/01/2015 at 11:25

    Cheers Dools,

    Apologies to all for my late comments on my article.

    Had a wedding to attend this weekend past – so I only had my phone, and you can't comment in safari.

    I have a feeling, looking at his stats and Bombers on the rise – he'll dominate.

    Gray, for mine is an upgrade target at best. needs to show he wasn't a one year wonder.

Comments are closed.