In the 2013 National Draft Dom Sheed was taken at pick eleven by his home state based club West Coast Eagles.
Having just torn up the National Championships with an average of 27.8 disposals per game, and having previously been judged the best player at the Under 18 Championships the young kid with the big future and body to match was expected to make an immediate impact at AFL level for a team that could use some injection of a big bodied youth.
However that impact did not eventuate predominately due to the fact he played only 10 games of which he was sub vest affected in six of them. So what was wrong? Personally I think Sheed suffered from being drafted to a team with a first year coach who did not offer much opportunity to his new draftees perhaps instead sticking with tried and true to avoid ridicule or deflect team woes. Simpson in a recent interview admitted to not giving kids enough of an opportunity but stated that would change in 2015. Does this translate to more TOG and less vests for Sheed, I expect it will and I expect that that extra TOG will be midfield time.
I often look for guys getting more TOG in their progression as that nearly always translates to more supercoach points. With Sheed being a contested ball winner and a great ball user I expect his numbers to soar from the paltry 39.9 average of 2014.
The upside is that his 6 vests means value in 2015.
|Games last season:||10 (6 sub affected)|
|Average last season:||39.9|
|100+ Games last season:||0|
|Sub 80 games last season:||10|
|Price range last season:||$166K – $212K|
|Missed games last season:||0 through injury|
|Significant history:||Larke Medalist 2013U/18 All Australian 2013U/18 WA MVP 2013U/18 WA Captain|
If we exclude his sub affected scores his average rises to 52.25 still nothing fantastic. But, in some games he wasn’t sub affected he still only had 60% and 66% game time in two of those games. I expect that he will get up to 75%+ if given a good run at a midfield role.
Unknown quantity from a second year player, therefore inconsistency in scoring but given his starting price I do not see too much downside or risk that would normally be associated with rookies such as the sub vest, Simpson knows Sheed wore it enough in 2014.
Rookie cash cow, I cannot see him doing a Wines in his second year especially because he is coming off a much lower base than Wines however an average of between 70-80 or beyond is not out of the question for this kid. For those thinking of picking NVB I personally think that the upside of Sheed is significantly higher Sheeds estimated minimum of between 70-80 which is the equivalent of the maximum for NVB makes him a better choice.
- Likely to see more regular game time in 2015.
- Will be a POD
- Cash Cow
- Unproven rookie in second year
- Some risk of sub vest
Dom Sheed is a must watch come NAB challenge. His 2014 was a little underwhelming even in the games he played without being sub affected, looked a little unsure which wasn’t unlike all those around him with perhaps the exception of Brownlow. If he looks a bit more confident and is getting his hands on the pill I would have no hesitation in selecting him. I would definitely take him over NVB. Whilst I would love to get the splinters out of my arse and jump off the fence I cannot especially with the likes of Cripps and Brayshaw at a similar price.
What’s your call on Dom Sheed in 2015?
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