In the 2013 National Draft Dom Sheed was taken at pick eleven by his home state based club West Coast Eagles.
Having just torn up the National Championships with an average of 27.8 disposals per game, and having previously been judged the best player at the Under 18 Championships the young kid with the big future and body to match was expected to make an immediate impact at AFL level for a team that could use some injection of a big bodied youth.
However that impact did not eventuate predominately due to the fact he played only 10 games of which he was sub vest affected in six of them. So what was wrong? Personally I think Sheed suffered from being drafted to a team with a first year coach who did not offer much opportunity to his new draftees perhaps instead sticking with tried and true to avoid ridicule or deflect team woes. Simpson in a recent interview admitted to not giving kids enough of an opportunity but stated that would change in 2015. Does this translate to more TOG and less vests for Sheed, I expect it will and I expect that that extra TOG will be midfield time.
I often look for guys getting more TOG in their progression as that nearly always translates to more supercoach points. With Sheed being a contested ball winner and a great ball user I expect his numbers to soar from the paltry 39.9 average of 2014.
The upside is that his 6 vests means value in 2015.
| 2015 Price: | $214,500 |
| 2015 Position: | MID |
| Games last season: | 10 (6 sub affected) |
| Average last season: | 39.9 |
| 100+ Games last season: | 0 |
| Sub 80 games last season: | 10 |
| Price range last season: | $166K – $212K |
| Missed games last season: | 0 through injury |
| Significant history: | Larke Medalist 2013U/18 All Australian 2013U/18 WA MVP 2013U/18 WA Captain |
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If we exclude his sub affected scores his average rises to 52.25 still nothing fantastic. But, in some games he wasn’t sub affected he still only had 60% and 66% game time in two of those games. I expect that he will get up to 75%+ if given a good run at a midfield role.
RISK FACTOR
Unknown quantity from a second year player, therefore inconsistency in scoring but given his starting price I do not see too much downside or risk that would normally be associated with rookies such as the sub vest, Simpson knows Sheed wore it enough in 2014.
SELECTION PURPOSE
Rookie cash cow, I cannot see him doing a Wines in his second year especially because he is coming off a much lower base than Wines however an average of between 70-80 or beyond is not out of the question for this kid. For those thinking of picking NVB I personally think that the upside of Sheed is significantly higher Sheeds estimated minimum of between 70-80 which is the equivalent of the maximum for NVB makes him a better choice.
THE GOOD
- Likely to see more regular game time in 2015.
- Will be a POD
- Cash Cow
THE DOWNSIDE
- Unproven rookie in second year
- Some risk of sub vest
THE VERDICT
Dom Sheed is a must watch come NAB challenge. His 2014 was a little underwhelming even in the games he played without being sub affected, looked a little unsure which wasn’t unlike all those around him with perhaps the exception of Brownlow. If he looks a bit more confident and is getting his hands on the pill I would have no hesitation in selecting him. I would definitely take him over NVB. Whilst I would love to get the splinters out of my arse and jump off the fence I cannot especially with the likes of Cripps and Brayshaw at a similar price.
WATCH
What’s your call on Dom Sheed in 2015?
General Soreness
Twitter: @GenSorenessSC
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31 Comments
throttlefinger · 16/01/2015 at 22:33
Not much to disagree with, General. Rated him high last year but disappointed it didn't seem to pan out, especially given the decimated midfield. You're right about the new coach. Rated him highly from watching last preseason. This season will be watching even closer yet it's hard to see him vest-free with the midfield being healthy. Will keep the peepers on him to see if from takes noticeable rise. Rawkin' review as always, General.
General Soreness · 17/01/2015 at 08:49
Cheers Throtts, I see him as a massive POD atm but if he has a solid NAB Challenge he may not stay that way, looking at him, Cripps, Salem. Lots talking up Biggs but I haven’t looked into him yet so cannot pass comment.
throttlefinger · 17/01/2015 at 09:40
I've been seeing Biggs in a lot of teams, yet having read anything that would make me consider him just yet. Lot of speculations.
If you had to rate your top 5 $200K and under mids, who would they be?
Cripps, Freeman, Boekhorst, Morabito and Sheed would probably be on my most likely to make R1 list. (not all of them…just who I'm considering the most). Connor Blakely is firmly locked as my M11.
General Soreness · 17/01/2015 at 09:59
Very tough of those I reckon will get lots of game time Freeman, Boekhorst, Cripps, Salem, Sheed, Acres, Templeton. I know that’s more than 5 🙂 Special mention unknown game time Heeney, Steele, Anderson, Laverde, De Goey.
throttlefinger · 17/01/2015 at 10:12
I think Steele has a decent shot at round 1 from all reports. See how it pans out preseason. All a guessing game until then and R1 selection.
WombatsFC · 17/01/2015 at 10:11
I've been pumping Biggs up a bit. I saw his first couple for the Swans and he was xlnt.
He will walk straight into a bulldogs midfield that lost 3 regulars during the off season.
It's not just about having a good club PR person, sometimes there has to be a spot available before a bloke can get a game.
IMO after Hogan he's the most likely under 220k to get a game, cos Clark is broken again.
throttlefinger · 17/01/2015 at 10:40
Has some nice numbers for only 3 games and playing for the Swans. Seems like a really nice fit for the Doggies. Well done again, my marsupial loving buddy.
THE SALTSHAKER · 17/01/2015 at 11:36
Longmire has said Heeney will more than likely used down back as one of the options to cover loss of Malceski could see early season game time
throttlefinger · 17/01/2015 at 11:45
As a certain abacus-loving, mother-foot-rubbing, Hyundai Excel-driving scholar would say, "Significant!"
Costa · 18/01/2015 at 21:07
Biggs averaged 33 disposals a game in the NEAFL last year. Second only to a bloke named Tom Mitchell.
Recorded 40+ twice and another 52 disposal game.
BarronVonCrow · 17/01/2015 at 02:37
Good stuff GS,
I'm 50/50 on him, which isn't to do with him as a player, but more with how my midfield is currently structured, but I'd certainly be more inclined to pick up Sheed or someone like Salem than any of the uber-expensive rookie mids like Brayshaw or Petracca and if you're starting him, then he could be good. Not Dom Tyson good, but good enough.
throttlefinger · 17/01/2015 at 08:01
Great point B. Taking a Hogan over a Mccartin is a lot easier to swallow given the js and price.
"Need to graze the field every week to become a cash cow." Sophocles.
WombatsFC · 17/01/2015 at 10:32
In case you've forgotten what nice weather looks like. tumblr.com/blog/wombatsfc
throttlefinger · 17/01/2015 at 10:52
You're on social media fire today, Womby!
General Soreness · 17/01/2015 at 08:47
Cheers Barron, Mid field structures will be interesting this year I’m seeing a lot of NVB Rich combo’s which I am not a fan of when the likes of Salem as you mention, Cripps and Sheed are on the table similarly priced.
shezza · 17/01/2015 at 06:35
I have the same thoughts about Cripps from Carlton , O’Rourke and Anderson from Hawthorn, Zak Jones from Syd
General Soreness · 17/01/2015 at 08:45
Agree shezza, Cripps solid, I’m not sure about O’Riurke yet but Anderson could be a jet if given opportunity I am interested in what role Jones will play but may not be SC relevant.
THE SALTSHAKER · 17/01/2015 at 11:38
o rourke rnd 1 pick 2 by gws could be the next miles/tyson if NAB numbers are good ill take a punt, Anderson also highly rated
Phil · 17/01/2015 at 10:57
Top review and great discussion lads. Great call on Sheeds definitely has to be watchlisted and I agree on picking him over NVB, heaps more upside.
Can't say I'm that keen on Biggs as a MID only. I know he put out some ridiculous numbers in the second tier, but so did Viv Michie (in a stronger comp) so buyer beware. Although Wombat does make a very relevant point about spots opening up in his side.
I'd prefer to bank on 2nd year players that were high draft picks. Hogan averaged 96 in the VFL 2 yrs ago so i think he will be solid. Cripps, Sheed, Broekhurst, Krakouer (with DPP) and Freeman would probably be my top5 mids. Not at all interested in Morabito, he has never been a big scorer. After his smashing review I'm very keen on Salem too. Not sure Laverde will be best 22, of course ASADA could change that dramatically though. Anderson is an interesting one, I reckon he could be quite the POD. I think he will get plenty of opportunities ala Langford in 2014.
I N Pieman · 17/01/2015 at 13:03
Gday Phil. Ive got my eyes on 5 2nd year players priced well under what I think they could be worth. 1 Freeman. Looks like he could run through a building. Hopefully his hammy problems are behind him. 2 Salem Ruined preseason last year yet Roosy gave him 12 games, which given Roosy track record of rookies has me highly aroused. 3 Cripps The extractor, he's going to be a gun. 4 Dumont can he crack the Kangas 22 & stay out of mischief. 5. Sheed only thing off putting is the price.
I have krak at F6. Being groomed as a half back sweeper & well & truly matured he could be a keeper.
Personally Phil I have little interest in Hogan. He'd be a last resort for me. He's cheap but ive got a pile of blokes ahead of him that could run through the mids & outscore him. I have Salem, Krak, Lambert, Steele, Daniel, Laverde, Karnezis & possibly Menzel, Brandan Jack & Mitch Clarke ahead of him at the moment. He's 11th on my rookie wish list for 2015 Fwds.
I N Pieman · 17/01/2015 at 12:17
Brilliant as always general. I’d pick him over vb as well. If there is a lack of rookies & my research behind the scenes indicates plenty of them in the mids & fwds then I’d rather a cheapie option. Nonetheless I’ll be keep big an eye on him. Love rookie reviews
Trab Pukcip · 17/01/2015 at 15:52
Hi Guys have a query (off topic), just wondering what people think is a good number of players for the byes to start the year with as per the higginator? This is my 2nd year in (got hammered in the byes last year) and just wondering what a good set up is initially??
I N Pieman · 17/01/2015 at 16:59
Gday Trab. You will probably make plenty of trades before the byes. So just make them with the byes in mind. Unless you had more than 16 in any one round I wouldn't compromise the team you want. At the moment I have 7 then 12 then 10. But that will change before the start of the season. Round 12 is the tough one. If you can keep that under 15 to start with you should be able to manage it.
@WombatsFC · 17/01/2015 at 16:10
Hi Trab,You only score from your best 18 players during the byes. I don't take the byes into consideration at all when structuring my teams,. You have 9 weeks of injuries and suspensions before the byes start so I usually start trading about 3 weeks before the byes to ensure 18 on the field. With 3 trades p/round during byes you'd have to be very unlucky not to have 18 on the field.
Last year I started with 14 first bye players and didn't get any donuts during byes.
I N Pieman · 17/01/2015 at 17:23
Hows your round 12 looking wombat? My last article goes up tomorrow. One more chance for you to tear me apart. It's been heaps on fun. It's all taken with a grain of salt. Love the banter. You'll get a few mentions in this one! It is centrered around your solar powered fridge expedition.
Dools · 17/01/2015 at 18:14
G'day Boys
Byes Smyes poppycock !
The greatest asset to any team is a scoring player, an even better asset is a player who scores consistently high even if he is out in a round matching most of your team makeup . Picking your team is important if it gives (Scores) and (Trade saving) until the aforementioned black hole of the byes.
Me I'm on a team that scores high and more then willing to sacrifice a round of victory because the guy I'm playing is not a threat to over all position in the great scheme of SC and three trades saved is three more then people will have when they trade out the byes to achieve a win but not overall victory.
Trading for the Byes is not the way. Playing with the byes in mind is useful but not necessary!
Trab Pukcip · 17/01/2015 at 21:38
Thanks heaps boys!!
Quack · 17/01/2015 at 17:02
Cheers, General. West Coast midfield make-up in 2015 will be interesting to see. Plenty made of their lack of 'big-bodied' mids, together with an apparent lack of genuine pace and flexibility. Selwood, Yeo and Wellingham looking for a clear run with injuries; some good wraps on their latest batch of draftees; and talk of a few newer additions to the midfield rotations including Lecras & Darling (every preseason for the last few years), as well as Colledge (drafted as a KPF, but showing some promise in WAFL). Hopefully some somewhere in there some value can be found – I'll be watching preseason with interest!
Billy · 17/01/2015 at 17:36
is it to late to buy the mag?
Dools · 17/01/2015 at 18:34
Hi Billy have a look at the banner on the right???
oDognutzo · 17/01/2015 at 23:43
Great article, I'm a big fan of Sheed. NVB was in my mids before i stumbled across Sheed and i think he'll have a better year, as far as scores go than NVB.
Cheers Lads
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