As I sit in the sun gazing over my Grandfathers farm on the outskirts of Seymour in rural Victoria I can’t help but think of Supercoach.

Lekdog

What was supposed to be a relaxing day away visiting the family has merely become an obstacle in my attempts to reach Supercoach supremacy. The happy sounds of chatter and smells of delicious food are getting in the way of my research. Lucky for me I have found a brief pocket of phone reception and it is in this sanctuary through which I write to you.

I’m sitting on an old bathtub once used for catching rainwater, my laptop is tethered to my phone and the reception is making load times a nightmare but still I will press on. In front of me is what remains of the Yabbie damn and beyond that an old shed, nestled in the shed is my Grandfathers brand new Menzel tractor. He has barely used that thing but it is always breaking down, never getting the job done.  Sitting out in the weather nearby is an old, rusted, beaten up tractor. It is about 100 years old and yet still runs and still ploughs the fields. It is probably the most reliable thing in this place; I believe it is an old Russian tractor…the brand appears to translate roughly to Boris though I must admit my Russian is poor.

 

2015 Price: $478,400
2015 Position: DEF
Games last season: 20
Average last season: 89
100+ Games last season: 5
Sub 80 games last season: 6
Price range last season: $417k-$507k
Missed games last season: Two, round 3 (ankle) and round 11
Significant history: Drafted last century (1999)Averaged 21 games for last 9 seasons

Average score of 94 since 2005

High score of 176 in 2008

Has played 288 games

Premiership player in 2007, 2009 and 2011

All-Australian in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011 and 2013

Best and Fairest in 2009 and 2011

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You see community what I’ve done here is I’ve painted a metaphorical mind picture with words. The intent of which is to analyze trusty old Corey Enright and how he stands up in the 2015 Supercoach season. The old cat has been a stalwart in our Supercoach teams for years, in fact I can remember having him in my very first team all the way back in 2006, but can he provide the same security in 2015?

2014 matched up to Enright’s standards scarily. Mr. Standard Deviation, as we call him in the community, averaged 89 with a standard deviation of 18, which just so happens to match his career standard deviation of 18, scary stuff. I know Higgo will be all over this phenomenon. This standard deviation meant that his scores on average were 18 below or above his Supercoach average of 89.

The curious thing about Enright in 2014 is that he had fewer 100+ scores but had more 90+ scores than he did in 2013.

Year

100+ Scores

90+ Scores

Games

SC Average

2014

5

6

20

89

2013

8

3

21

94

2012

8

5

21

93.9

But what does it all mean Boris?

All that this table means is that Enright’s points shifted from tons to 90+ scores from 2013 to 2014. He is still having a very similar output to his past scores and with a standard deviation of 18 is very reliable. In fact his standard deviation is the same as Malceski’s was in 2014 and comparable to Hibberd’s standard deviation of 17 in the 2014 season. And there is a good chance you’ll already have those two blokes in your team.

Risk Factor

The only risk factor I can see is the perception that his age will hinder his scoring. However we’ve been saying this for years. Some indicators that there is a risk are that he averaged below 90 in 2014 for the first time since 2005.

Selection Purpose

From the response to my last article it looks like Smith, Shaw and Hibberd are locks for most peoples D1-3 slots. The D4 position is like my Grandfathers tractor, you want someone who is reasonably affordable, reliable, doesn’t break down and gets the job done. I think the Enright branded tractor will be a sufficient investment for what will almost certainly be his last year in this caper.

I think he can average 90 again in 2015, whilst he does get some low score and doesn’t have a massive ceiling he has given us no indication that his scores will drop by any massive measure.

There is also a good chance that his price will drop to the low 400k region and you could upgrade a cash cow to him later in the season, just depends on how he is performing.

The Good

  • Still plays for a winning team
  • Average of 94 since 2005
  • Standard deviation of 18 over his career
  • Geelong are going to push again this year, they think they can play finals with their bolstered forward line with acquisitions like Clark and Stanley.
  • Enright is going to play because Geelong needs to impress young Dangerfield if they are to secure his contact.
  • He’s a gun year in and year out
  • You know what you’re going to get
  • Averaged 100 over his last 7 games of 2014

The Downside

  • Not a Supercoach match winner
  • Few 100+scores will scare people off
  • Can score poorly like any defender
  • Price will drop at some point
  • Shares Bye Round with the likes of Shaw, Hurn and Waters

The Middle Ground

  • Tough start to the year for Geelong with games against Hawthorn, Freo, North, Richmond, and Sydney in the first seven rounds but Enright averages 93.2, 96.8, 82, 98, and 99.3 against those opponents accordingly.

Alternative options

Players around Enright’s price are Hurn (massive ceiling but injury prone and susceptible to low score). Jaensch (had a poor patch from round 6-15 in 2014) but is otherwise looking like a solid enough option. Hibberd and Smith, both had good seasons last year. You’ll want three or four of these blokes in your side so Enright is really a D4 option. In my books D5-6 can be used for a couple of cheapies/playing rookies.

The Verdict

I think it’s sort of irrelevant who your have as your solid 80-90 scorer in defense this year. You can’t really go wrong with who you pick if you’ve done the research, all defenders have inherent risk and I think Enright has proven that his risk is low. You might squeeze a few extra points out of Jaensch or Hurn but for mine Enright is just a solid option. He isn’t going to bust out massive scores and win you league games but if overall rank is your goal then having a consistent performer is a massive help.

Enright ended his season on the up averaging 100 (11 above his season average) over the last seven games; I am hoping that this is an indication of how he will perform in 2015.

This year will be the year we have to find the NEXT Mr. Standard Deviation community, so for those who want to find him early and potentially get some extra value out of him then maybe Enright isn’t for you. Maybe you should look elsewhere for your defense options and let me know what you come up with.

At this stage personally I’m welcoming Enright back to Lekdog’s Puppies for his final encore, however I’m not locking him in and throwing away the key. The 450-500k mark is filled with traps in the defense this year community, I still think Enright is a solid option but in the pre-season someone else might put there hands up for my D4 spot.

For the sake of a number value I’m 70/30 for having him in my team but looking elsewhere too.

Well that’s it for me; hopefully the family have saved me some food.

Lekdog

Twitter: @lekblog

 

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43 Comments

@BenjoDT · 15/01/2015 at 19:56

Probably a pass for me. 30/70 ATM.

My backline as it stands:
Hibberd
Malceski
Newnes
Waters
Pearce
Whitecross

Thoughts?

    @LekBlog · 15/01/2015 at 20:09

    I don't have Malc but I have everyone else at this stage

      @BenjoDT · 15/01/2015 at 20:28

      Sorry I have Hodge instead of Hibberd my bad 😉

        @LekBlog · 15/01/2015 at 20:50

        Ha sll good, Hodge will be a P.O.D but I like him

    I N Pieman · 15/01/2015 at 20:30

    Eski isn’t value this year. Too expensive. Had him all last season & loved him. But it was a risky pick that payed the table. Certain he will drop under 500 at some point. Also he’s not in a really experienced defence with others to worry about. He will be a marked man. Id seriously recommend not to start with him.

      @BenjoDT · 15/01/2015 at 20:34

      ok cheers Pieman, I might shoot off a trade to Hibberd

        I N Pieman · 15/01/2015 at 21:43

        Benjo nice to have you on board. I’m searching for value in defence. Hibberds hammys worry me. But he’s a good player when he’s on the park. If your going with him plan for cover.

          @LekBlog · 15/01/2015 at 22:31

          Agreed Pieman only 18 games last year but a couple were injury affected too.

          @BenjoDT · 15/01/2015 at 23:13

          Cheers guys! I also think Docherty is value and is training well. Might go for him then.

            @LekBlog · 16/01/2015 at 04:02

            I bloody hope he has a breakout year!

          vcloophole · 16/01/2015 at 15:30

          Pieman, I won't be touching Hibberd due to hammy issues, as good as he often is.

I N Pieman · 15/01/2015 at 20:24

Tremendous Lek. Your passion even when family is about can’t be ignored. I’ve been a little slack with my next article. You’ve inspired me to kick the blonde chick from tinder to the curb & rip out another. As for Boris I’m not sure. This whole defence thing is a nightmare. He’s the safest pick of the lot. But he’s not cheap, doesn’t go huge & he’s 33 at least I think. Nonetheless an awesome topic for argument. Just like your last one was. Brilliant my man.

    @LekBlog · 15/01/2015 at 20:55

    Thanks mate, tried hard to make this one more readable for non-statistic supercoach players (as much as I could). Supercoach over Tinder even in the off-season now that's commitment.
    You're right about Boris, he's not cheap but you know what you're buying. His age i'm basically ignoring because it seems to not effect him.
    Thanks for reading

MASO · 15/01/2015 at 20:53

Great work Lek and commitment. lovely place seymour was born there , haven't been back there in about 12 yrs but im sure its still lovely 😛
As for Boris he's a no for me cant fit him in the salary cap 😛

    @LekBlog · 15/01/2015 at 21:16

    Oh yeah it's a tight salary cap at the Puppies but we like looking after our older players, as for Seymour it leaves a little to be desired.

General Soreness · 15/01/2015 at 21:02

Brilliant write up Lekdog love the analogous introduction, Enright has been a mainstay for years and I’m surprised his numbers were as good as that in 2014 they felt worse most weeks. I’m unlikely to start him opting for the new Mr SD candidates.

    @LekBlog · 15/01/2015 at 21:17

    I like it GS, yeah he had some down weeks but just had another one of those years. Got the job done, I like the look of Jaensch but i'm not sold on him.

    @LekBlog · 15/01/2015 at 21:18

    Also thanks for the kind words

throttlefinger · 15/01/2015 at 21:16

Great insight into Mr. SD, Lek. The analogy was just superb. Honestly, struggling with Enright. Not going to spend the amount back there to put him as a D4 (most likely Waters at the moment). Do I go with Enight and save a bit of loot or go with the (probable) future Mr. SD and Hibberd? The output last season as you said, was fantastic, yet I know his age contributed to missing 3 games.

Much to mull. Superb take as always, my man.

    @LekBlog · 15/01/2015 at 21:37

    Yeah I'm tossing up between the two, Hibbo was good last year but only played 18 games and Enright was Enright. It's tough, Supercoach makes it difficult for us in defense. Waters I think is just about everyones D4 at this stage but I'd like some proof he's not dead like our mate Charlie Dixon.

    Thanks Throts

      throttlefinger · 15/01/2015 at 22:03

      Ha! Or just a light coma. Think most of the back line will be defined by what we see in preseason. Holding pattern until…can we fast forward to March?!?

        @LekBlog · 15/01/2015 at 22:32

        I wish mate

shane · 15/01/2015 at 22:29

Great article, good food for thought. Thanks Lekdog, Ive been wrestling with my defense like 2 fat kids over a pie.

    @LekBlog · 15/01/2015 at 22:32

    Heath Shaw could help you with that, the defense and the pie that is.

Chicko · 15/01/2015 at 23:07

Brilliant Lek! I felt like I was sitting in the tub with you looking out to the beautiful Victorian countryside. I’m with General in that I thought Boris’s numbers were worse than you have stated – I shouldn’t be! I am looking at Hibbo as his potential SD replacement perhaps will look at both of them. Thanks again mate, ball tearing review!

    @LekBlog · 16/01/2015 at 04:04

    The thing with Enright is his scores just shifted to high 80's and 90's. Was some stinkers in their but still consistent. I like Hibbo a lot, started with him last year and based on his 18 games has a lower standard deviation, injuries worry me a little but he is likely to make it into Lekdog's Puppies.

    Thanks for reading mate

WombatsFC · 16/01/2015 at 11:27

Well done LekDog I love a story that identifies the origin of an epiphany.
When you consider the D options 'Grandpa's best tractor' is the safest in a field littered with sink holes. Certainly safer than Hibberd, Eski, Heater, Simmo et al.
You blokes can probably back off a bit on identifying the gold now, I think you've identified enough.

    General Soreness · 16/01/2015 at 13:01

    Like the scene from Spaceballs after the go to Ludicrous Speed, STOP we cant STOP, I think my brains are going into my feet.

WombatsFC · 16/01/2015 at 11:59

Hi LekDog. As a supporter of the most successful AFL/VFL club in the history of our great game I'm sure that you'll be interested in these questions.
How many GWS guns out of contract at seasons end?
How many of them are Victorian?

Why do you think the Blues sent SOS to Sydney to nurture and develop GWS's Victorian stars, instead helping a struggling blues defense?
Is it just coincidence that SOS came back to the blues 1 season before Treloar et al have to make the most important decision of their football lives?

Who was the brains behind this? McKay, Jeannie, Ratts, or Sticks?

    @LekBlog · 16/01/2015 at 14:26

    Sounds like a Sticks master plan to me, don't think McKay is cunning enough for it. I think the plan is to grab Treloar and Cameron and then use Trigg's connections in Adelaide to pick up Dangerfield in the off season

      WombatsFC · 16/01/2015 at 14:54

      I heard very similar about Triggs plans for danger and then last at bout 11:00pm Rory was on the phone lamenting not being appointed as Captain and asking if I knew any decent real eastate in the inner east. 

        vcloophole · 16/01/2015 at 15:21

        Aargh I bet Treloar will somehow end up up at Hawthorn. Just a gut feeling from a still (2008) bitter Cats supporter. They will find a way. Bastards.

          WombatsFC · 16/01/2015 at 16:49

          Hahaha. Hold on that vc no sense it letting it go now.

          @LekBlog · 16/01/2015 at 19:06

          Him and everyone else, bloody hawks

        @LekBlog · 16/01/2015 at 19:07

        I'm mates with Sloaney's brother I'll try and suss him out. He's also his Melbourne manager so I doubt he'll give me any goss…

vcloophole · 16/01/2015 at 15:26

Nailed it Lekdog.
Playing devils advocate however, I'm wary of Enright being used more as a defensive negater this year as he is exceptional at that role when he needs to do it. There are a lot of VERY damaging small forwards in the comp at the minute.

    @LekBlog · 16/01/2015 at 23:42

    Yeah that's a good point, I think we saw bits of that last year. Hmmm much to think about

WombatsFC · 16/01/2015 at 15:34

Watching the round 12 Blues v Cats atmo Corey's (63) his second worst game of the year so not much insight other than he appears to be playing an obstruction role, interrupting henderson (42) passage to the play. I hope he doesn't get that role too often this year.
Simmo (67) got an absolute bath from stokes (134). After rechecking the l/y scores for both Corey and Simmo you'd have to say Corey was worth more than simmo. 31pts better ave over the last 3 and 7pts better over the last 5 even though Simmos last 5 included 3 tons

    @LekBlog · 16/01/2015 at 19:09

    Yeah Simmo was a trap I avoided, very up and down. Enright provided a bit more for mine.

    Still love Simmo, solid research Wombats!

Jeff · 16/01/2015 at 17:26

Good Evening Community. I have completed my first draft team for the preseason. I welcome any who wish to criticise or give some feed back.

Defs: Shaw, Hibberd, SDT, Ibbo, Waters, Goddard.

Mids: Ablett, Rockliff, Fyfe, Ward, Wells, NVB, Heeney, Boehorst

Ruck: Burger, TBC.

Fwds: Gray, Lids, Buddy, Swan, Micheal Walters, Clark.

Cheers

    @LekBlog · 16/01/2015 at 19:10

    Backline is a bit injury prone but solid team mate, we actually have a thread for team posting on the site so you should head over there and submit it.

Seaford Scouse · 16/01/2015 at 18:40

Becoming the master of the defensive assessment Lek! Nice work again and love the descriptive colour you’ve given it.

Whilst I know he’s Mr SD his age combined with recent dip in output has me concerned enough to steer clear from the off. That said I’ll probably be proven wrong and he’ll be consistent again but even in that scenario I think there’s greater value in a Newnes or Rampe. Safer than those around him though as you call out so if these guys don’t show in Nab and I need to reinforce my defensive jocks then I’ll probably turn to SD to bring calmness down back.

    @LekBlog · 16/01/2015 at 19:14

    I like Newnes and currently have a spot for him but he is a bit of an unknown. But there is some value at St. Kilda in Steven, Acres, Templeton, Newnes etc

    SD just brings a relaxing effect to the backline that you can't get anywhere else. Like I said though I am looking elsewhere for backline talent.

    Thanks for the kind words but I'd hardly call myself a master, keep up the research SS!

Comments are closed.