O Captain! My Captain!- Part 2

CLICK HERE FOR PART 1

BarronEvery bloody movie gets a sequel nowadays, so why sshouldn’t Supercoach articles?

Howdy folks, Barron Von Crow here and we’re here today with Part 2 of our Supercoach Captains preview. Last time we took a look at the best scorers Supercoach had to offer us in 2014, now in Part 2 we’re looking at the best of the rest.

These guys are still top notch Supercoach players to have in your sides, but how did they fare as Captain material last year? That’s what we’re here to find out. There’s a good chance these players won’t be one’s you can rely upon each and every week, but if you like to play the field, then this will be what you’ll need to know.

First up, we’re going to take a look at the 2014 Brownlow Medal Winner Matt Priddis.

Matt Priddis

Matt Priddis

Priddis had a slow start to 2014, only hitting his baseline once in Rd 8 (and he barely hit it with a score of 120). After the bye round Priddis put in some Brownlow worthy form however, hitting above the baseline in 50% of his games, while having a further 3 games where he scored 110-119. He was also a big scorer in the 2nd half of the year, with 71% of his above baseline games being way above the line with  5 of games of 130+ Supercoach Points.

Verdict: The slow start of the year would be a concern, but if he could have duplicated that 2nd half of the year form over the entire season he could be a very interesting prospect. 2014 was his 2nd best result in Supercoach however and he’ll be 30 by the time the 2015 season starts, so we probably can’t expect any major improvements from him that’d launch him to a “Set and Forget” option.

Rory Sloane

Rory Sloane

I may have reacted a few times to Rory Sloane the same way Bill Lawry reacted to Merv Hughes on those 12th Man tapes in 2014, but how did he look as a Supercoach Captain? Not bad, he spent a large portion of the year hovering above or just near the baseline of 120, but the biggest problem was those games where he scored between 100-110 of which he had 7, as well as a further 3 games below 100 Supercoach Points. Overall he had 9 games, or 41% above the baseline of 120, but only 44% of those games were well above the baseline with scores of 130+.

Verdict: He’s still young and there’s room to improve, but Sloane is a hard one to gauge. If he improves again he could almost be a “Set and Forget” option if you want to play it safe and take scores that hit near the baseline most weeks, but you only had an 18% chance of getting a really massive score of 130+ out of him last year if you used him as a week to week option. Still has worth as a midfielder pick, but you’d likely look elsewhere for your Supercoach Captain.

Patrick Dangerfield

Patrick Dangerfield

Well, that certainly looks like a graph of Supercoach suckage! At least if it came to picking your Captain. Danger only hit above the baseline in 4 games last year, though 3 of those were scores above 150, including a 2014 competition high of 192 in Round 5 (so congrats if anyone picked him in that game!). Over 54% of his games last year were with scores below 100 points, so you had a better chance of completely missing everything than hitting it for 6 if you used him as a week to week pick in 2014.

Verdict: I do think he’ll be better in 2015 (biased maybe!), but Danger has never been one you could think about as a “Set and Forget” option. He’s even a risky week by week pick, but if you nail it than you’d likely be really pleased with the result. Play the matchups maybe, but probably you’d probably look at other options first, unless he’s playing GWS.

Robbie Gray

Robbie Gray

If there was a Most Improved Player award in the AFL than I think Gray would have won it in 2014. Gray scored above the baseline in 9 of his 22 games, but 5 of those scores came in the last 6 weeks of the 2014 season. He also showed some nice big scoring potential, hitting above 130 Supercoach in 55% of his above baseline games. The biggest downside to Gray was he had 7 games where he scored below 100 Supercoach Points.

Verdict: If last years form repeats itself than you’d almost have the same chance of hitting a below 100 score as you would a score of 120+ from Gray. That’d eliminate him from becoming a “Set and Forget” option, but there isn’t any reason you couldn’t use him as a week by week choice if you’re willing to take the risk.

Luke Parker

Luke Parker

The new kid on the block for the Swans, Parker scored above the baseline in 7 of his 22 games last season, though 6 of those scores came in the final 10 rounds. He didn’t display any outrageous scoring potential with only 3 games above 130, but at only 22 years of age, he does display the potential to have a Pendlebury like scoring graph in 2015.

Verdict: 7 games below 100 would usually be unacceptable, but if he can continue to improve and add some more scoring punch to his Supercoach game I think we could be looking at him as a safety pick during the 2015 season. But let us not forget Parkers teammate…

Josh P. Kennedy

Josh P Kennedy

JPK was a fairly solid Captain pick before the Swans hit the bye round, scoring above the baseline in 5 of his first 9 games, with 4 of those being above 130 and 2 being above 150. Kennedy struggled a bit after the bye rounds however, only hitting above the baseline a further 3 times, it’s probably no coincidence that Parkers graph started to rise while JPK’s started to fall a bit.

Verdict: The question is now, which JPK performance can we look forward to in 2015? The 1st half Kennedy where he was averaging 124 Supercoach Points until the bye round or the JPK who averaged 113 over his next 11 games? If it’s the latter than we’d probably look elsewhere for our Captain pick most weeks.

Callan Ward

Callan Ward

Maybe one of the more underrated Captain options in 2014, Ward scored above the baseline in 11 of his 20 games, while scoring above 130 in just over 54% of his above baseline games. He likely could have scored even more if he didn’t get a concussion in Round 4, which slowed him down for the next fortnight or so. He also had a late season fadeout with two scores below 100, which up until that point he’d only had 1 game of if you don’t count Round 4 -5 where he was dealing with concussions.

Verdict: The potential is obvious, with a bit more consistency than he could very well have been a “Set and Forget” Captain in 2014.The issue now becomes with the addition of Griffen and the continued development of young GWS midfielders like Shiel, Treloar and Greene, can Ward keep up the same sort of pace in 2015?

Shane Mumford

Shane Mumford

Mumford started off the year HUGE, with scores of 132, 158 and 164 before injuring his knee. That obviously took some life out of his early season form, only hitting above the baseline 3 times in his next in his next 14 games, though he did score 150+ in 2 of those. He went above 150 in 66% of the games he scored above the baseline, when Mumford goes off, he really goes off with a bang.

Verdict: The potential is there and if you look at the teams he went large against (Sydney, St Kilda, Melbourne, Brisbane, Carlton and Collingwood) it probably shows an easy trend (ie teams that don’t have great ruckman) to follow that’d make him an week by week pick. We must also consider how the new rules will benefit a ruckman like Mumford, which means he’s not the only big man who comes into contention…

Sam Jacobs

Sam Jacobs

Jacobs scored above the baseline in 10 of his 22 games last season, while also having a further 6 games where he scored 110-119 Supercoach Points. He also had 4 games below 100 Supercoach Points in 2014, which was only 18%of his games, compared to 29% from Shane Mumford. He also had 2 games above 160 Supercoach Points to his name too.

Verdict: If the new ruck rules favour Jacobs and push his scoring up (Jacobs led the league in Hitouts to Advantage last year) and he takes those 6 games where he scored 110-119 and pushes them above the baseline we’re looking at a guy who could potential hit above the 120 Supercoach Point baseline 14-16+ times next year if his form holds up. He won’t have the huge scoring potential that Mumford or some of the other midfielders display, but that sort of scoring consistency would turn him into a safe “Set and Forget” Captain option for 2015.

Steele Sidebottom

Steele Sidebottom

Maybe the forgotten man in the Pies midfield, the Pies might rely upon Sidebum even more in 2015 with the loss of Beams and Ball. Sidebottom had a career year Supercoach wise in 2014 and 7 of his 19 games where above the 120 Point baseline, with another 12 games below the baseline, 5 of which where  below 100 Supercoach Points total.

Verdict: Sidebottom had another 7 games where he scored between 100-115 Supercoach Points, if he takes on a larger role again in 2015; these are the sorts of games where we’d be looking for him to push above the baseline. If you got 12-14 games above the baseline for him, that wouldn’t be too bad. The question is will that happen though? I’m not so sure of it myself.


33 Comments

General Soreness · 14/01/2015 at 09:43

Love the analysis Barron, but the graphs they hurt my eyes so much carnage for captains pick, just makes you even more certain of Gaz, Pendles locks.

    MASO · 14/01/2015 at 12:18

    Agree , have these guys in your side and be happy when they belt out a 125+ but for me stick to the guys like ablett for captain. i will the save the gambling for the race track always plenty of donkeys to bet on .
    Top notch Barron 😛

    BarronVonCrow · 16/01/2015 at 02:35

    Cheers, GS. I will have one of those 2 locked in my side for certain, just not sure which one yet!

Danners16 · 14/01/2015 at 10:17

Great stuff Barron! It makes people think about which premium options we should have if we were to use them as captains

    BarronVonCrow · 16/01/2015 at 02:36

    Cheers Danners. I was actually surprised by a few, Ward surprised me by how good he looked and Gray was a bit more inconsistent than I remembered.

I N Pieman · 14/01/2015 at 11:25

Brilliant stuff Baron. Given R4 is gone (standard loophole position) captain picks are all the more important. We have a decision to make early. 30 playing players or sacrifice a position so you can loophole. Which means you would be sacrificing cash gen. Not sure which way to go on that one yet. Great stuff.

    General Soreness · 14/01/2015 at 12:15

    One of the big dilemma's of 2015, plan for loophole or not.

    Trab Pukcip · 14/01/2015 at 12:20

    Hi INPIE dude, got to go with the loophole option on that one buddy, the question is where do you initially choose your donut??? R3 with FWD swing will still be pretty common I reckon!

      General Soreness · 14/01/2015 at 12:55

      Tend to agree Trab that this will be common although at what expense to the forward line is the quandary is it worth it. Might be worth sacrificing at D8 to avoid compromising the forward line. The way things look I doubt D8 will get upgraded at any time during the season.

      I N Pieman · 14/01/2015 at 13:19

      It’s a big call either way. An advantage to have in league matches. Which spot is a tough pick. An r3 donut is dangerous. Maybe even pick someone who could get a game later.

        vcloophole · 14/01/2015 at 13:37

        Maybe D. Menzel?.. or Caleb McDaniel if not selected round 1?

          I N Pieman · 14/01/2015 at 13:42

          Caleb was the man I was thinking of as well vc. Assuming he’s not playing round 1. Word is he’s impressing everyone at the doggies & tearing it up.

    BarronVonCrow · 16/01/2015 at 02:37

    Thanks Pieman,

    Yea, it is a bit of a decision, but unless you're willing to pay a chunk of change for a R3, I just can't see many options from a rookie POV. It's not ideal, but it does look worth taking the R3 as a loophole and hoping your rucks stay healthy.

Wolf · 14/01/2015 at 13:28

Great work Barron entertaining and thorough as always. Anyone know when the site is full scale open – can start leagues etc? Feb 1st again?

vcloophole · 14/01/2015 at 13:41

Top notch once again Baron. The real gold in this analysis is identifying those guns that have the potential to be uber-premos. These blokes could be genius picks that maybe we weren't going to squeeze into our initial squads!

    BarronVonCrow · 16/01/2015 at 02:39

    Thanks VCL. It does help looking for the guys who could be uber-premos. Parker has certainly shot up the charts and is potentially in my midfield after I initially discarded him once he lost FWD eligibility.

Dools · 14/01/2015 at 18:19

Magnificent Baron ,
Top notch mate! Just goes to show and prove that Baby Jesus is a vital cog in the SC machinery and Dependlberry is another.
Great entertaining read. Thank You

    BarronVonCrow · 16/01/2015 at 02:39

    Thanks Dools! Always good to see you around here.

rainman · 14/01/2015 at 19:20

Awesome Baron, at the moment i have 3 of these lads sitting beside Sir Garry and Dependelbury in my starting mids. This analysis enforces those choices. Great work

    vcloophole · 15/01/2015 at 13:42

    Rainman! Its your old foe Phil Ken Sebben here! Hey buddy!

      rainman · 15/01/2015 at 14:55

      Ahhh PKS you cycloptic reprobate!

        vcloophole · 15/01/2015 at 16:12

        I sense the powerful aura of rainman v.2015 looming large over me. Can't really tell how far you are away tho, with the depth perception issues 'n all.

          Rainman · 15/01/2015 at 18:49

          Always here as a wingman to the mighty PKS

    BarronVonCrow · 16/01/2015 at 02:40

    Awesome Rainman, glad I could help you lock in your picks! Lets hope if all works out.

throttlefinger · 14/01/2015 at 23:09

Well, this killed about 2 of my M3 selections. Say most of this lot looks to be upgrade material. Hurts not to start the year with JPK in my side (a TF tradition), but his graph and price pretty much make it a non-discussion.

Or is it a POD discussion. Hmmmmmmm. Nooooo Throtts, don't! OK, OK (subconscious: "Hmmmmmmm").

Excellent breakdown, Barron!

    BarronVonCrow · 16/01/2015 at 02:41

    Haha, sorry Throtts! It kills me to not have JPK too as I've relied upon him heavily over the past 3 years, but I am thinking of going through the Supercoach mid-life crisis and divorcing JPK and upgrading him to a younger and better looking model (Luke Parker).

      throttlefinger · 16/01/2015 at 04:07

      Be careful about those younger models, Barron. They look great in a sweater but still don't have the seasoning to spend more than an hour around. Very unpredictable at that age as well. Could be just be into you because you have an M3 to give them.

        BarronVonCrow · 16/01/2015 at 05:01

        Nah, I swear they love me for real, not just cause I splurge my M3 cash on them! Here's hoping we don't have a mid-season breakup!

          throttlefinger · 16/01/2015 at 05:10

          Just hope JPK doesn't have revenge sex and puts up 193 on the Crows.

            BarronVonCrow · 16/01/2015 at 05:47

            Ha! Wouldn't surprise me, been reamed by the Swans the last few times the Crows have played them.

            Still, i'd rather it come from JPK than Kurt Tippett!

              throttlefinger · 16/01/2015 at 05:51

              HAHAHAHA. No doubt!

Shooter · 15/01/2015 at 13:22

Ripping analysis mate.
POD captains are crucial where guys like Ablett, Rockwhiz and Pendles are unavailable.
The Mummy data is interesting re poor ruck opponents.
Until they close the loophole it is a critical part of your strategy. R3 best positioned to achieve this and I will be going with two R/Fs (mid and rookie priced) to cover my honkey ass.

    BarronVonCrow · 16/01/2015 at 02:42

    Thanks Shooter. Nice idea with the R/F idea to provide cover.

Comments are closed.