Defense is fickle in 2015 – Is Johnson a worthy option?
What were our top 10 options in defense for 2014 from a minimum of 18 games?
In order, they were: Malceski, McVeigh, Hanley, Swallow, Bartel, Simpson, Burgoyne, Smith, Shaw, and Hodge.
How many of these players are available in defense in 2015? 6 – Malceski, Simpson, Burgoyne, Smith, Shaw, Hodge.
How many of those available averaged 95+? 2. (Malceski & Simpson).
What average should we realistically look for in a defender for season 2015? I’d think your top 3 defenders need a 95-100 average, and your D4-6 should average 85-95 come season end.
What do you want from your defenders in 2015?
I would say consistency is much more optimal over ceiling.
Do you want a Scott Thompson type? Who can smash out 170’s every blue moon littered with 40-60 scores in-between.
Or do you want a Michael Johnson type? Johnson has a 120 odd ceiling; but more than half of his scores have been above 90.
|Games last season:||18|
|Average last season:||87.2|
|100+ Games last season:||5|
|Sub 80 games last season:||7|
|Price range last season:||$386K-$499K|
|Missed games last season:||4; RD 13-16 (Medial Ligament Strain – Knee)|
|Significant history:||Averaged 86.9 in 2013, 89.41 in 2012
Suspended for 3 weeks (club imposed) for Cocaine possession in 2010
Drafted at pick 8 in the 2003 Pre-Season draft.
Johnson Started 2014 in supreme form. Up until the bye, he scored all his 5 tons and dropped below 91 once (76) to average 98.4. Post bye, however, he scored over 75 three times for no 100+ scores to average 75.9.
Johnson injured his knee in the middle of the third quarter in round 12, and subsequently missed the next 4 and he returned in round 17 for a respectable 84. His next three games he topped out at 75 – clearly impeded by his knee. Round 21 saw a season high 29 disposals and 98SC points and a hopeful return to form.
Unfortunately, he sustained a back injury against Brisbane Lions and tried to play through it the following week, resulting in season ending surgery and two more sub 80 scores.
Removing his 3 injury affected scores he would have averaged 91 – for a defender, that’s worthy of a D3 spot.
Digging deeper, you notice his disposal efficiency is exemplary. 2014 netted 77%, and 2013 & 2012 was 81% DE. Over the last three years he’s averaged a shade under 20 disposals and 6.7 Marks. He hates a cuddle (avg 1.8 tackles) and doesn’t mind a rebound 50 (avg 3.6).
Looking at his stats from the last 3 seasons – we see the following:
Now, bear in mind – Johnson is a prospective D4-6, so we want an average of 85+. I think he shows enough for that position.
The best prospect I see from the above is the amount of 90’s he gets – in addition to the 100’s. If he can bridge the gap between his best and worst, his average can jump into the mid 90’s.
From 2015; providing he is over his back woes, he should return to his best – an intercepting, rebounding defender that should get a 90+ score more often than not.
Since 2011, Johnson has missed 5 games (excluding finals). If he’s true to this, he could go all season without missing, or if the Lyon effect is to happen – he may get rested.
Season ending back injury in 2014 – could be a slow starter or re-injure.
Is 30, could age catch up?
Ross the Toss Lyon could put a spanner in the works.
Pick him as a D4-6 keeper. Don’t trade him out unless injury strikes.
I see him being a top 10 defender if fit, he should be a potential upgrade target if you don’t start him.
- Insane levels of Disposal Efficiency. 4 of his last 61 games have been at 100% DE (From a minimum of 12 disposals)
- Loves a kick, good intercepting marker = SC rolled gold.
- Playing for a team that wins more often than not & he scores better in wins.
- Hates to tackle. (Averaged 1.8 a game in the last 3 years)
- Season ended by injury. Could re-injure. Could start slow.
- Ross Lyon. Need I say more?
Most players have stinkers & Johnson isn’t any different. His lows aren’t as low as a Scott D. and similarly, his Highs aren’t as high. Those low scores can single-handedly lose you head-to-head matches.
I prefer a lower SD from my players – defenders even more so and seeing how fickle defense is this year; Johnson is a much safer pick. So; providing he gets through the off-season injury free and is picked round 1 – Johnson will be in my team for 2015.
Welcome to Soap-On-A-Rope Michael Johnson.
|This article has been penned by an elite Supercoach analyst hand picked from the talent pool of the Jock Reynolds Fantasy Footy Community. He has stood up within our community as a man of fantasy substance, and has displayed the spirit of togetherness, positivity and community that we value significantly.|