All-Australian Brodie Smith had a career best year in 2014 – but is that enough to make him fantasy footy relevant?

LekdogI’ll start by saying this community; he is definitely fantasy football relevant. We just have to determine at what point in the season he is going to be relevant.

In 2014 Smith played brilliantly and was honored with an induction into the All-Australian team averaging 93.5 Supercoach points.

Whilst he had a stellar year and was considered to be one of the best defenders in the competition, real life footy honors don’t always translate into fantasy footy. Nick Smith of the Sydney Swans is an example of this, as he was also named in the All-Australian team but only managed to average 70.85 for the season.

 

2015 Price: $502,800
2015 Position: DEF
Games last season: 22
Average last season: 93.5
100+ Games last season: 9
Sub 80 games last season: 8 (Three were scores of 78)
Price range last season: $407K-$517K
Missed games last season: 0
Significant history: All-Australian 2014
Drafted with pick 14 in 2010

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Brodie Smith managed to get into the best 22 players in the real life competition but just barely scraped into the top 50 best Supercoach players at 49. Supercoach is a harsh mistress.

However I’m sure this disparity between Supercoach rank and All-Australian rank won’t get Smith down, as he has steadily increased his average from 50.1 in 2011 to 93.5 in 2014. This climb can be attributed to several things beyond just age. Smith has increased his average Rebound 50’s to 5 a game putting him at 4th in the competition for 2014. He also was ranked 2nd for Total Rebound 50’s behind Nick Malceski (who played 3 more games than Smith).

It’s not so much Brodie Smith’s number of R50’s he produces but rather the WAY he produces them, which gives him his Supercoach points. In 2014 Smith went at 78.2% disposal efficiency for the year meaning he didn’t turn it over much and subsequently meaning he scored well. To compliment his disposal efficiency Smith also favors kicks (at 13 per game) over handballs (9.5 per game) and as we know Supercoach loves kicks.

RISK FACTOR

Smith is a 500k+ defender; if you jump on him too early you will lose money. Smith’s role may change slightly with a new coaching panel which may cause his scores to drop…I’m clutching at straws here, the bottom line is don’t buy a 500k defender.

SELECTION PURPOSE

If you select Smith in your starting lineup then you are banking on his output increasing to above 105 points per-game in 2015. It is the only way we can really justify such a pricey defender in the current Supercoach climate.

My suggestion is you target him after he has lost some value, either as an upgrade or a corrective trade.

THE GOOD

  • Averaged 93.5 for 2014
  • Was good enough for All-Australian selection
  • Solid defensive rebounder
  • Kicks over handballing
  • Is still only 22 and heading into his prime
  • Is a shining light in a miserable looking year for the backline
  • Durable, played 22 games in 2014

THE DOWNSIDE

  • Expensive, over 500k starting price
  • Can have very low scoring games

THE VERDICT

Community I like Brodie Smith, a lot.

He played bloody well last year with high scores of 144, 138 and 133 but defenders are fickle and Smith matched his high scores with scores like his 32 in round 15. I honestly think that Smith could kick it up a notch this year if Adelaide’s new game plan allows him to keep rebounding out of the defensive 50. But 500k is too much for any defender in your starting lineup.

Smith’s price will drop, at which point we should jump on as our options in the back half will be limited in 2015…until then Smith is an upgrade target for a rookie or a downgrade target for an underperforming premium for me.

I think he is capable of taking his game up a notch in 2015 but that won’t come before a price dip, I’ll be watching him very closely through the early stages of the season waiting to jump on him.

My suggestion, wait to acquire Smith at a later date.

Let me know if you’ll be starting with Smith this year community.

Lekdog

Twitter: @lekblog

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AFL Supercoach Legend Jock ReynoldsThis article has been penned by an elite Supercoach analyst hand picked from the talent pool of the Jock Reynolds Fantasy Footy Community. He has stood up within our community as a man of fantasy substance, and has displayed the spirit of togetherness, positivity and community that we value significantly.

 


221 Comments

@LekBlog · 09/01/2015 at 00:23

A little bit of a shorter article from me today everyone but that's what happens when you leave your research at home when you go away to the beach. I think it's pretty good given I drafted it in the wet sand at McCrae beach and sent Polaroids of the writing into the Bungalo for upload.

Smith is good but I don't spend 500k on defenders.

    David · 09/01/2015 at 00:27

    What do you think of Devon Smith? GWS are improving and he will score more goals. Averaged 91 last year. Likely to improve on that

      @LekBlog · 09/01/2015 at 02:14

      GWS have gained some talent in the midfield so more bal should get up forward. Smith averaged 99.5 after his bye and 114 over his last 5 games of the year. Solid option with slight risk (unproven, GWS will still struggle etc.) will be a nice P.O.D though i see a few people slotting him in their sides.

Captain · 09/01/2015 at 00:28

Who would you recommend in defence if 500K is too much

    @LekBlog · 09/01/2015 at 02:09

    Hibberd and Shaw are both a touch under 500k. I'm a big fan of Hibberd but his ceiling isn't massive. Newnes from St. Kilda is around 400k and I think he'll have a good season…is DPP too

throttlefinger · 09/01/2015 at 06:33

Brodie Smith was one player that has been sojourning in my Higginator. There one week and gone for 2. Something tantalizing about the scores he can do, yet if he were $100K, nay, $50K cheaper, he'd be a lock. But ass hairs don't turn into gum drops when you pluck 'em so you have to deal. And I think you've nailed it on the head Lekkie. Best to wait. Lot of upside but better to be sure.

And for some reason, my gut has not been that into him. Think he'll help the Crows but don't think he'll be as giving to our SC teams. Just a hunch.

    @LekBlog · 09/01/2015 at 13:31

    Agreed Throttle, He'll score well but not enough to maintain a 500k+ score. I'm sure he'll make his way into my team at some stage though.

Sarah · 09/01/2015 at 08:17

Keep in mind guys that Smith has been training with the midfield group again… like he did last year before Henderson, VB and Shaw went down. He's in line for more midfield rotations this year. Just something to think about. For what it's worth, he's locked into my team for Round 1.

    throttlefinger · 09/01/2015 at 08:58

    Yeah, hearing that as well, Sarah.. Yet that's a common claim over the preseason wire. Like any of our non-locks, NAB will reveal what we'll see once R1 starts.

    I'm 50/50 on him still. But leaning towards a Heater and Mr. SD as my D1-2.

      jockreynolds · 09/01/2015 at 09:57

      Here's an article on it: http://news.optuszoo.com.au/2015/01/05/smith-eyes
      It is the common claim Throtts thats for sure. If he was around that $420K mark I would have hi in calculations.

        throttlefinger · 09/01/2015 at 10:12

        Ahh. Nice. Saying all the right things. Like like prize fighters who say, "Had a great camp. I'm in the best shape of my career." Never know until the action starts.

          @LekBlog · 09/01/2015 at 13:32

          Crameri trained with the midfield group at the doggies last year…I'll just leave this here.

        @BarronVonCrow · 09/01/2015 at 15:07

        I'm certainly more confident on it happening this year, than last. As Sarah said injuries to the backline meant we really had no other option but to continue to play Smith back there, but you add Hendo and VB back (Shaw is still injured) who could play Smith's half back role role + Harrison Wigg who's got a pinpoint kick on him, or even Mitch Grigg who's the same and I hope that'll open it up for Smith to play further up the ground. Crows midfield often looks like it's running in quicksand, so having Smith as an option there would be a big bonus.

      Koach · 09/01/2015 at 12:08

      Sorry to interrupt your thread here throttle but who is mr sd?

        throttlefinger · 09/01/2015 at 12:12

        Corey Enright. Mr. Standard Deviation. Count on him to give you 85-90 a game. Rarely more or less.

          Sarah · 09/01/2015 at 12:19

          If you're into SD's Throttle, J Kelly, Newnes and Burgoyne all had SD's similar or better than Enright last year.

          throttlefinger · 09/01/2015 at 12:51

          Considering Newnes, Sarah. Not big on Burguyne. Corey had off year due to injuries. Feel form will improve.

            @LekBlog · 09/01/2015 at 13:33

            I have Newnes in my team currently, Enright will inevitably make my team for the 5th year in a row

    I N Pieman · 09/01/2015 at 09:47

    Interesting Sarah. Keep your eyes on that for us please.

      Sarah · 09/01/2015 at 10:05

      Watch for injuries to the crows backline players and NAB. If you saw his interview on the crows website last week where he talked about it, he's very keen to get into the midfield rotations and he's training with the midfield group. All good signs so far.

        taylorwoof · 09/01/2015 at 17:03

        Good discussion.

        Wouldn't surprise me at all, if the old 'more midfield time' is true in this case.

        When you compare the spread of centre clearances numbers of Adelaide to the premiers Hawthorn, they do need to relieve some pressure off Dangerfield and Thompson in that area.

I N Pieman · 09/01/2015 at 09:46

Nice one Lek. Spending over 500k on a defender isn't a very wise thing to do. Your right that they drop in price & ultimately the best time to pick them is when they bottom out. If Sarah is right about the mid time thing then maybe i'd break the rules. But not in my team at the moment.

    @LekBlog · 09/01/2015 at 13:33

    Thanks Pie Man, preseason will reveal all I feel

jockreynolds · 09/01/2015 at 09:55

Excellent balanced article LekDog. I agree with you in that it would be a mistake to back him in to average 105+ by starting him in your side. Having said that I do occasionally roll the dice on a kid who I have genuine belief in in terms of going the next level. This would need to be backed by some robust belief and assurance in his role for the upcoming season and he's position within a list. As Sarah said above – and we know that 80% of the 'more midfield time' preseason talk is bollocks – he could be a genuine chance for some more rotations. A no from this old prick – but with the crap on offer down back he will start in a few teams

    @LekBlog · 09/01/2015 at 13:34

    Thanks for reading mate.
    Was only in 5% of teams last year Jock, will surely increase. Won't be starting in mine at this early stage.

Sarah · 09/01/2015 at 10:03

When selecting my backline there'll be a number of questions I will ask myself, as well as looking at the number of round 1 rookie starters. But the questions will be along these lines:

– Will the player I'm selecting be a keeper? Surely you have to pick one or two priced around $500k as season keepers??
– Is the money I'm saving by selecting Shaw over Smith ($5k) worth it, just because Shaw is below $500k?? Long term do I want Shaw or Smith?

Last year there were 4 defenders priced over $560k and most of us started with at least 2 or 3 of them. This year there is only 1 and only 4 over $500k. They aren't going to break the bank by selecting 1 or 2 of them. The $560k defenders also had greater capacity to lose money. The $500k players… not so much.

In my opinion, you don't want to be trading in 6 defenders just because they've bottomed out and you've saved $50k on their starting price. You will need to start with at least 3 keepers. Determining how much a trade is worth to you at the start of the season is very important. Everyone will view the worth of trades differently.

Also keep in mind, big price drops are usually due to a game where the player suffers an early injury and is subbed… but can you bank on that happening to the players you want??

If Smith does enter the crows midfield rotations (where he played all his pre-AFL footy) then I don't think he'll drop in price enough to make the trade worthwhile. This is why I'll be starting with him.

Disclaimer: This is just my opinion!!

    I N Pieman · 09/01/2015 at 11:01

    It's an interesting point you raise Sarah. Looking through things with a fine tooth comb I think we might be spoiled for choice with Sub 200K players in the Midfield & Foward line. Many I'm certain will be very good value. Trawling through defencive rookies it's not a plentiful. It may force us to invest in the line a little more than originally thought. If there is only 3-4 rookies in def for round 1 (could be less) then we may be forced to grab more rookies for the fwd line & more expence in defence. All will be reveiled in due course. But spending 500k in defence is painful. Newnes at around 440k & with DPP is appealing.

      I N Pieman · 09/01/2015 at 11:07

      How are Jake Lever & Harrison Wigg travelling Sarah? They are possible rookie options in defence. Before he did his ACL Lever was averaging 95 at TAC level with about 18 touches a game. Wigg gets plenty of the pill as well.

        Sarah · 09/01/2015 at 11:28

        Hi INP,
        I'm watching Lever and Wigg closely. Haven't heard any definite news on them being in the R1 mix yet.
        As always I'd suggest watching in the NAB and keeping an eye on the crows injury list. There probably isn't a spot in the 22 for them yet.

          I N Pieman · 09/01/2015 at 11:48

          Hi Sarah. I have heard due to the lack of key defenders Lever is walk up start for round 1 (as long as gets through preseason). Before his ACL he was a top 5 pick. I prefer Wigg's DE & ability to find the pill but Lever fills an immediate need.

            Sarah · 09/01/2015 at 11:59

            Hmmm, with more reflection the crows defence isn't set at all. Both Lever and Wigg are definitely in with a chance and worth watching closely in the NAB.
            With regards to Wigg, the crows have Jaensch, Brown and Laird as small defenders all fighting for spots. Based on this I'd probably rate Lever more of a R1 chance.

              vcloophole · 09/01/2015 at 14:52

              Great discussion Sarah. Tho Lever may be a young gun, I doubt he will average more than 60 as a key defender. Tough to make decent $$$ quick enough off of that imho.

      Sarah · 09/01/2015 at 11:31

      That's my thinking too INP. I always hate trading in defenders during the season. You're not going to get a really satisfying 100+ score the week you trade them in to justify your decision! So there's never any instant gratification on the trade!!! While the midfielders do score the big points, there's also more potential to lose significant amounts of money making them better upgrade targets.

    ReltonRoberts · 09/01/2015 at 11:08

    Totally agree with Sarah on this one, currently running with Smith, Birchall and Walker. Although only one is 500k while the others are 470k it doesn't hinder the structure of the rest of my team.

    Also Lekdog, you suggest to stay away from Smith because he has potential to lose value which is fair enough, but then you can suggest Hibberd and Shaw who are just as likely to lose value and are roughly 10k cheaper? Don't see the logic in that one. FWIW, i think Shaw and Hibberd are both good players and are likely to end up in my team.

    Also of the lower priced defenders (sub ~430k mark) besides maybe Newnes, Docherty and potentially Rampe there is a reason all those players are priced like that. SD Thompson for example is one I wouldn't even bother looking at bringing into my team. One year of averaging 90+ and only 4 100s in his last season. Pass.

    If you were looking for someone a bit cheaper around the 450k mark I would suggest either Jeremy Howe or Bachar Houli. I don't have either atm but I can see them stepping up this year. Howe especially had glimpses of becoming a solid option as a HBF.

      Sarah · 09/01/2015 at 11:17

      Thanks Relton Roberts.
      I've got Smith, Burgoyne, Birchall, Shaw and Kelly fighting for a starting spot in 'Field of Danger' this year.
      I'll also be watching Newnes, Docherty, Rampe, Sidebottom and Ibbotson closely in the NAB for the D4 position. All have been in various versions of my team.
      Howe is an interesting one. I like him too but I find it really hard to put premo-Melbourne players in my team. Will add him to my NAB watch list!!

        ReltonRoberts · 09/01/2015 at 11:23

        I wish i could have Sidebottom as a defender, sadly I think you've had a mix up haha!

        I also couldn't bring myself to select a Dees player as a potential keeper, it just doesn't feel right. Still gonna watch him closing in NAB and throughout the year.

          Sarah · 09/01/2015 at 11:26

          Haha, Whoops!!! I meant Seedsman!!! I wish I could get Sidebottom as a defender too! Wouldn't that be nice!

      I N Pieman · 09/01/2015 at 12:48

      Relton from one man who loves pies to another Andrew Walker is a burn man. He's on my never again list. Constantly gets injured. He's averaged 14 games a season for the last 6 seasons. Nup. Good player but misses too many. If he was cheap maybe but he's not.

        ReltonRoberts · 09/01/2015 at 23:44

        Thanks for that, didn't know he'd missed so many. However the only year i've had him (2013) he served me exceptionally well.
        I'll likely be sticking with him, unless he gets struck down before round one, or maybe if one of the lower priced mids (Newnes, Docherty, Mayes, Vlastuin, Houli etc.) show some real promise in NAB cup he would be the one to make way before Smith and Birchall.

      vcloophole · 09/01/2015 at 14:50

      Relton, great points. Birchall played sore a lot of the year in 2014, and played more of a sacrificial, non-playmaker role than in previous years. If fit, could he return to his lofty 2013 SC heights? I think he can.

        ReltonRoberts · 09/01/2015 at 23:59

        I bloody love Birchall.
        He's played 20 or more games in 3 of the last 4 seasons, one being cut down to 14 due to injury.
        in those 4 years he's averaged 94, 94.6, 92.1 and 88.9
        Also with the addition of Frawley to the line up I doubt he will have to play as much of a defensive role as he did in 2014, hopefully this translates into greater SC output.
        With the pool of elite defenders being so shallow this year we're going to have to settle for premium scores of 90+ instead of the 100s from years past. Birch has shown he can manage that.
        Did i mention that I bloody love Birchall?

      taylorwoof · 09/01/2015 at 17:25

      Relton! The first person to mention Jeremy Howe. He's on my radar as well. All hinges on what end of the ground he plays at, gut says he goes forward in 2015.

      Sarah – I concur with everything you said ^ there, bravo! Currently have 3 x 490K > defenders in my side.

        ReltonRoberts · 10/01/2015 at 00:01

        Yep, if Howe isn't playing predominantly off the half back he won't be getting a look in. Also don't want to have to deal with Roos rubbish, he's worse for SC than Ross the Boss.

    WombatsFC · 09/01/2015 at 11:08

    That's a very good opinion disguised as good logical advice. There is a massive increase in rankings available for all those ranked outside the top 10,000 by following these principles. Thanks Sarah

      Sarah · 09/01/2015 at 11:32

      Thanks WombatsFC.
      I was trying to make it not sound like a lecture!!! Not sure I succeeded, hence the disclaimer!

    General Soreness · 09/01/2015 at 19:05

    So very well said!

    Nate · 12/01/2015 at 14:15

    Smith is a lock for me.
    running with
    Def: Smith, Shaw, Lumumba
    Waters, whitecross, Moore
    (maynard, Goddard)

Tman · 09/01/2015 at 10:52

Splendid work Lek. Good discussion folks.

I with you Sarah, a trade is probably worth more than 50k. I look at it this way …if I stand to make 50k from a rookie…id leave him well alone. Thinking back to last year all the best defs seemed bob up and down between 470-550k throughout the season.

Having said that, I am yet to lock my def keepers. Stuggling more than I ever have with the def line.

    Sarah · 09/01/2015 at 11:34

    Exactly Tman! You wouldn't pick a rookie if you knew you'd only make $50k out of him. So why not pick a premo just to 'hopefully' save $50k trading him in later???

    I reckon picking the defence this year is the hardest ever.

      Tman · 09/01/2015 at 16:39

      I suspect there will be many sleepless nights between now and rd1, putting the def jigsaw puzzle together. :p)

Tman · 09/01/2015 at 11:14

Guess I need to crack the wombat code. :O)

    I N Pieman · 09/01/2015 at 11:37

    Tman find the cheapest way to get 6 onfield players that will average an aggregate of 80 each to start your season with. If you can do it with a spend of under 2 million for those 6 players you've done very well. Thats how I'm trying to approach it. I made contact with an anchient relative recently who decoded the mystery. There will be an article on the conversation shortly.

      Tman · 09/01/2015 at 16:40

      That suggestion is definitely not without merit. Can't wait for your piece INP.

WombatsFC · 09/01/2015 at 11:15

Thanks LekDog I think this article identifies Brodie as the safest option for a Premo defender in 2015, if you really want a premo defender in 2015.
I think he'll be a top 4 SC defender this year.

You also mentioned Nick, what is the probability of him filling eski's role?

    Sarah · 09/01/2015 at 11:35

    Isn't Nick Smith more of a lockdown defender? I'd think it more likely that Rampe would fill eski's roll. Hopefully they both play NAB and we can get a good look at how the Swans defence will cover the loss of eski.

      WombatsFC · 09/01/2015 at 11:49

      True and 2014 was the first time he his ave broke 70 after six years. So it's not like he'd been wearing the velcro to learn the swans defensive structure.Just noticed eski's history from 2006 onwards. 67, 100, 51, 96, 67, 75, 90, 105 What's the next number in that pattern?

        Sarah · 09/01/2015 at 11:51

        Interesting. The next number probably depends on whether his knee holds together. Either way, I won't be starting with eski.

          WombatsFC · 09/01/2015 at 12:29

          Yep he he looks like the safety of a Gecko tongue but is actually a Bearded man with a list of surgeries.

          @LekBlog · 09/01/2015 at 13:42

          There was an article the other day from Sydney's website where they identified McVeigh as the man to replace Malceski. Meaning Tom Mitchell is sure to get game time

            vcloophole · 09/01/2015 at 14:32

            A lil nugget of gold right there

        taylorwoof · 09/01/2015 at 18:00

        Next number, 120.

          WombatsFC · 09/01/2015 at 20:03

          How'd you get 120? I had 67

            taylorwoof · 09/01/2015 at 20:26

            75, 90, 105, 120 – Increments of 15.

            All this Anti-Esky talk has made me squeeze him into my current side.

              WombatsFC · 09/01/2015 at 20:48

              Every 4th year 67.
              First 67 being year 0

                taylorwoof · 09/01/2015 at 20:56

                Arhhhh….now i see it.

                Could be a leap year for the Beard.

                  WombatsFC · 09/01/2015 at 21:59

                  Nope he's a “slash your wrists with a razor' defender this year

                Dools · 09/01/2015 at 21:26

                You are eclectic today wombats Love it hahahaah

      @cafosk · 09/01/2015 at 12:33

      There are a few that could step into Eski's role, I'd think it would be Rampe, with McVeigh making regular appearances. However, Rohan($272) I think might be a smokey for that secondary rebounder, I've got him in as my D5 at the moment

        I N Pieman · 09/01/2015 at 12:54

        Cafosk. Gary Rohan in your team, how do you sleep at night. Would need to something extremely significant to entertain that risk. Half his possessions in the GF were turnovers that resulted in goals. He probably recorded another -2.

          @cafosk · 09/01/2015 at 13:49

          I know, I know, he's D5 at the moment, im just thinking of who will pick up possies in Eski's absence. I have no doubt he can get an average of 70. With the brigade of defenders at the swans looking for spots, now with Longmire indicating Heeney will be down there too, there will be competition and I believe he will hold his own.
          (Until I find a better fit for my team)

            I N Pieman · 09/01/2015 at 14:01

            Nicholas Newman at rockbottom & discussed by Longmire playing the role has me salivating. He's rookie listed but could be upgraded & put in the team. He's mature age as well. Keep your eye on him.

              @cafosk · 09/01/2015 at 14:41

              Good pick mate, Laidler is still hanging around as well!

                DognutZ · 09/01/2015 at 23:31

                Why would anyone assume that someone from the Sydney back line will automatically replicate the Eski's 2014 form and propel them to SC glory? His historical form would suggest 2014 was his "Blue Moon". I think if your looking for the next Eski your mad as my mother in-law. There are much safer "prospects", if that's what your into… I'd rather stick with solid histories, clean injury slates and fridges full of amber stuff that has me sleeping most nights on the couch.

WombatsFC · 09/01/2015 at 11:30

Sorry for the temporary change of subject but when I went to sleep it was summer.. Have I missed any games?

Dools · 09/01/2015 at 11:37

This year more then any previous SC years SC glory will be won and lost in Def.
I agree with Sarah – A player whom is selected as a keeper (Barring injury or suspension) is a trade saved. The less trading in the back line allows more trading in the money line and of course the Injury risks in the Ruc later in the season.
Given the less then solid DPP and KPP Forwards most trading will be required on that line me thinks a solid backline is a MUST
A solid backline is the building block for winning your cash leagues or the whole shebang.
Do not go cheap in Def is what I'm saying apply the Wombat Prime. The more keepers in the backline allows for tactical freedom trading on others.
That's the Fridges Strategy and I'm totally on board.

    I N Pieman · 09/01/2015 at 12:26

    At first Dools I was thinking maybe only 1 keeper & maybe 2. Now i'm thinking 3 & maybe even 4. Or hope Waters at D4 can stay on the park. The rookie options in Def land don't look anything like whats going to be available in the Mid & Fwd line. I'm currently looking at 3-4 keeps in def, 3 up forward with 5 rookies & a 6 & 5 rooks midfield, along with 2 premo rucks. The way the new ruck scoring system works I'm leaning towards thinking the 620k spend on jacobs could be worth it. It's something we really need to get our heads around. It would be brilliant if somone could work out what ruck scores would have been under the new system. It's also the line it will be won or lost on.

      vcloophole · 09/01/2015 at 14:44

      I'm def leaning towards this structure Pieman. Buggering up the rucks will make or break a lot of otherwise great teams.
      All obvious, high scoring rooks will be selected in my starting 22, whatever line they may be on. The other spots to be filled with uber-premos and a select few 'value' midpricers like The Pig, Swan.
      If that means only 1 or 2 rooks get a backline start, then so be it! I WON'T cop Jed Bews style defensive rooks this year, I just wont. Frivolous wasted trades trying to 'upgrade' these spuds must be avoided at all costs!

        Sarah · 09/01/2015 at 14:49

        I read today that Swan will only be returning to full training in February… this could be a problem. At the moment he's in my team but now I'm not so sure.

          vcloophole · 09/01/2015 at 14:56

          He's a pro, he'll be right. NAB will tell all on him. Baby Jesus and Nic Nat for that matter too.

        I N Pieman · 09/01/2015 at 15:21

        Oh Jed Bews VC how painful that was. Seemed like a good idea at the time! 3-4 premo Def 6 Premo Super durable Mids 2 Rucks Jacobs & Nic Nat & 3 Premo Fwds with Swan at F3. There will be heaps of quality rookies in the fwd & mid lines. Krakoeur ay 106k with mid/fwd being groomed as a sweeper across half back, I'll take that. Kane Lambert the next Barlow at 102k with mid/fwd yeah i'll take that as well. Caleb Daniel tearing it jup…yep Salem yep. Hogan & Clarke see ya.to many gun mid types in the fwd line jack steele as well, jayden laverde…the list goes on. There's going to be heaps up fwd & in the mids. Not so good in Def. I can only see a handful of potentials so far. So invest in Ruck & Def. But certainly don't overspend.

    BCHawks · 09/01/2015 at 13:10

    The only thing I am skeptical about going with a few premo defenders is I'm not sure who will stand out as the best 6 defenders that is why going more mid prices and rookies allows you to save money and gives you a chance to see which defenders stand out.

      I N Pieman · 09/01/2015 at 13:50

      Good point BC. It's going to be tough to pick anyone who will finish in the top 10. Some of the guys we pick may end up being stepping stones. Which is effectively wasting trades & warchest.

        @LekBlog · 09/01/2015 at 16:43

        Agreed boys, there are blokes who could surprise us like Duffield could end up in the top 10. Who knows?

          I N Pieman · 09/01/2015 at 17:26

          I have considered the Duff man. But the Ross factor can never be underestimated

            Dools · 09/01/2015 at 19:38

            Great debate Community I'm very interested as it seems you are. Love it !!!
            I'm especially keen on anyones take on what they think is a value Defencive pick so I can analyse Data and publish here on site for all to see whos who in the Zoo!!! Not the teams they are in or anything like that Just a Value pick and why? example I picked Enright as he has 16 years plus in the system AVG since 2005 – 93.96 (That's across 10 years) yes he is 33 but he is not finished yet
            Just got back from the Hobbit "The Battle of Five Armies" correlation:
            Def Line, Midfield, Rucs, Forwards and Trades (ie Stepping stones that work and Supds who don't)
            Hope to get some replies, until then I will await at the Fridge!!!

              BCHawks · 09/01/2015 at 19:43

              Walker, Waters, Ibbotson are all value picks that have proven to be good scorers in the past but have been hurt by injuries. I expect the three of them to feature in a number of teams.

                Dools · 09/01/2015 at 19:46

                Wow BC that was fast I just got back from Ze German appliance with a stubby in me hand unopened

                  WombatsFC · 09/01/2015 at 20:08

                  I just noticed that there's no Gaz in the Australian team for the Asian Cup. He obviously hasn't recovered from that shoulder yet.
                  0-1 already

                    Dools · 09/01/2015 at 20:17

                    Wombats you funny sarcastic bugger. Nuff said !

                    WombatsFC · 09/01/2015 at 20:25

                    If I was coach and he was fit I'd have him in. I'd give him a go with kookaburra too if I was boof

                    Dools · 09/01/2015 at 20:42

                    I get it Womby, Baby Jesus was needed out at the SCG but his shoulder is hanging on with a couple of surgical staples "Can't bowl can't bat" Remember that little nugget mate LOL

                Dools · 09/01/2015 at 20:01

                I get Andrew Walker BC but I think he and Beau are the only keepers, Unfortunately Garrick has Ross the Boss in control last full season was either 2009 or 12 I can't remember he is a risk IMO but it could very well be inspired but a trade waiting I think

                taylorwoof · 09/01/2015 at 20:13

                Disagree, Ibbotson isn't a 'proven good scorer'.

                2008: 19 at 81.5
                2009: 22 at 67.9
                2010: 17 at 65.0
                2011: 18 at 79.1
                2012: 21 at 72.4
                2013: 13 at 94.5
                2014: 10 at 63.7

                One year of 13 games at 94.5, and a season 6 years ago at 81.5 is far from a proven scorer in my book. The man mentioned by Dools, Enright…he's a proven 'good scorer'.

                  Dools · 09/01/2015 at 20:20

                  Twoof I asked for Value picks BC has obliged I should have said Value Keepers (beyond bye rounds)
                  What have you got mate Just a name and a why ??

                  WombatsFC · 09/01/2015 at 21:06

                  I think he was tried in a different role in 2009, 2010. When he plays the role he had in 2013 and 14 he is capable of high tons. 2014 ave must be influenced by subs and injury

                    Dools · 09/01/2015 at 21:14

                    Ross Influence at work me thinks but inspired if it comes off

                    WombatsFC · 09/01/2015 at 23:51

                    I think his 60's ave stopped when Zac went to Freo. Since then Garricks just been unlucky.
                    Shows how good he is though Dawson averages half of what ibbotson did in a role that Ross specifically recruited Dawson for.

                WombatsFC · 09/01/2015 at 21:18

                Fromthe CFC 2014 review of the Phantom
                "Walker began 2014 on a high, re-signing with the Blues for an additional three years. Approaching his 12th season at Carlton………. Unfortunately the 28-year-old’s season was cut short in mid-July due to a LINGERING knee injury. The good news is that Walker is well ON THE ROAD to recovery and looking forward to a solid pre-season."

                He HASN'T BEEN MENTIONED in ANYpreseason media releases from Princes Park and he didn't look like he was training with the rest of the group when I was running around Princes Park recently.
                SOJ (ironbars boy) and daisy however are tearing it up.

                  Dools · 09/01/2015 at 21:49

                  So wombats is this a reason to pick him as a value keeper??? LOL I loved the disguise but now you have gone all Cartoon format on me

                    WombatsFC · 09/01/2015 at 22:07

                    Yeah Dools this is an officaial 'IN Play' lock for D1 from WombatsFC. The Phantom What does 'in play' mean? The preseason chatterbox and=C2=A0 'InPlay” mute TaylorWoof can explain that one.

                    Dools · 09/01/2015 at 22:18

                    You my friend are always inplay LOL even when your mean you toy with them I see it and I love it lol

                    WombatsFC · 09/01/2015 at 23:34

                    WTF happened there? That was sent from the iWombat the = C2 etc. were not profanity.
                    Lol TaylorWoof is a maths 'Rainman' he's probably used that equation to slot in the seasons best D1 and 2.

                    Dools · 10/01/2015 at 00:25

                    You make my days Wombats – thanks

                    WombatsFC · 10/01/2015 at 00:35

                    No worries mate you give me endless joy and inspiration as well, in a totaly non-gay chicks are the best sort of way.

                    Dools · 10/01/2015 at 00:39

                    Ahh gee thanks my pouch wielding friend!!! (meant in a totally non gay way) Chicks are cool when they take.. Neve mind

                    WombatsFC · 10/01/2015 at 00:41

                    You callin me shiela!

                    Dools · 10/01/2015 at 02:07

                    No Wombats The girls I like do not have Armour on their ass's and also they do not take sexual ambiguity to extreme ……… But I have lived thru the 60's LOL

                    taylorwoof · 10/01/2015 at 01:32

                    Excel can be your best friend Wombats, you just have to play nice.

                    Nothing wrong with a good pre season my friend.

              taylorwoof · 09/01/2015 at 20:22

              You're onto it Dools!! "Value" is in the eye of the beholder.

              Enright, some may see a player like him as value because;
              A – Know what you're going to get, week in, week out.
              B – Low Standard Deviation
              C – Has been pumping out good scorers for years.

              Others may see no value in him because;
              A – He doesn't have a huge ceiling, will 'only' score 80's and 90's.
              B – Age

                Dools · 09/01/2015 at 20:38

                I get the eye of the beholder T'woof but it's what I 'm after so I can get a cross section on community and submit an article for all to review

                  taylorwoof · 09/01/2015 at 20:42

                  Ok, right now in current version of Higginator i have Malceski, Simpson and Hodge at D1 to D3.

                  Malceski
                  GC Suns play – Melb, StK, Geel, GWS, Bris and Adel in first six rounds of 2015. If the Esky can replicate his most recent scores vs those sides he'll be scoring as follows: 104, 96, 144, 138, 112, 98. For now, that's enough for me to pick him for the get go. Fear the Beard. Everything in the back half will be going through him at Gold Coast. Been on, off, on, off him….but i'm on now after my research.

                  Simpson
                  Very similar to your Enright argument – Since 2009 has played 22 games every year, except 19 in 2012 with Season Aves of 93.9, 99.8, 94.5, 94.1, 95.1, 95.5. Consistent, get what i'll pay for.

                  Hodge
                  Since 2005, Aves; 135.3, 103.5, 110.7, 118.3, 91.4, 116.4, 106.4, 85.8, 96.7, 91.5. Plays midfield and is available in defence. Hawks Pre Season footage shows he looks bloody fit!! No doubt he'll be giving everything to get the triple flag too! Is a DPP as well. Not many of those avail in 2015.

                  Hope that's the kind of thing you're after mate.

                    Dools · 09/01/2015 at 20:49

                    Now that's the Value I'm thinking about buddy all Keepers if picked I'd lean towards McVeigh over Esky but love the reasoning mate. Solid.

                    Thanks for your input

                    WombatsFC · 09/01/2015 at 21:04

                    hahaha I get flashbacks too mate. They reckon its the acid from the 80's

                    Dools · 09/01/2015 at 21:11

                    This is not the 80's ?? WTF

                    WombatsFC · 09/01/2015 at 22:03

                    The acid was from the 80's the flashback was to a time when McViegh was a defender.

                    Dools · 09/01/2015 at 22:25

                    So this is not the 80's then LOL My bag

                    WombatsFC · 09/01/2015 at 22:38

                    About time you bought your own bag.

                    Dools · 09/01/2015 at 21:16

                    What do you mean from the 80's this is the 80's, right????

              WombatsFC · 09/01/2015 at 20:54

              Clay Cameron. because he's 213k, ready, big tough and fast and he will play

                Dools · 09/01/2015 at 21:02

                What M I missing here Oh yeah The why???? A nine game superstar you cheeky bugger LOL

                  WombatsFC · 09/01/2015 at 22:01

                  213k and already played 9-games AND is causing preseason arousal curves from broadbeach to nerang.

                Dools · 09/01/2015 at 21:11

                See is it so hard to help me mate

              WombatsFC · 09/01/2015 at 21:02

              Enright is a safe pick. He's priced at what he's worth and he delivers most weeks. when he doesn't deliver, the cats and supercoach teams with him above D3 usually lose.

                Dools · 09/01/2015 at 21:08

                I think not Womby a trade saved is still a trade saved and if he is your D3 it's still a solid pick (I must admit I had him every year in SC from D1 to D5

                  WombatsFC · 09/01/2015 at 22:02

                  No argument about him being a solid pick, I just think Value is when you get someth ing below market price

                    Dools · 09/01/2015 at 22:19

                    Value in the sense that you have saved a trade was my intention mate

                    WombatsFC · 09/01/2015 at 22:29

                    Well in that case yeah. Which idiots disagree with that?

                    Dools · 09/01/2015 at 22:38

                    Just about everyone has a valid opinion but I'm not getting what I hoped for maybe them all in bed or walking to the "bottelo" as they have run out of thinking fuel … The ox is slow. But the earth is patient – Just for you Womby a Mickism to help you sleep lol

                    WombatsFC · 09/01/2015 at 22:52

                    I must be dimensional Dools, I feel so sad for them.

                    Dools · 09/01/2015 at 22:59

                    Hahahahah Your idea of sadness equates in my book to a Chinese government mourning the loss of lead but recouping the cost of gunpowder from the executed family LOL

                    WombatsFC · 10/01/2015 at 00:27

                    haha.
                    Ever been to China? post 1700 History of china is very different when experienced from Taiwan or Hong Kong. It was the Brits who introduced Opium to China. They did it because they had nothing that the Chinese wanted and as such they were at a disadvantage in trade.

                    Dools · 10/01/2015 at 00:50

                    England ie the Empire needed some thing to trade as China would only trade in Silver- everything was for sale except silkworms and precious metals and stones . the only currency for all transactions was silver… Tea that must have beverage brought England to its Bankruptcy as they used the silver standard since Norman times Remember this was when the Gold in the World belonged to the Spanish.
                    So the English against their own advise to rule the trade route ended up trading for tea and silk which no one could buy as they had no Silver because it was used to purchase the tea and the silk. Easy right? Next step fix the inequity!!! Lets kill the little cleaver things – Hence Hong Kong, Tea in India and Silk farms in Mulberry trees ……….History

                    throttlefinger · 09/01/2015 at 22:48

                    Looks like someone is getting close to reaching their top Wombat level.

                    WombatsFC · 09/01/2015 at 22:51

                    Just putting in the preseason hard yards throttle. I came back from the break a bit friendly.

                    throttlefinger · 09/01/2015 at 22:58

                    Hahaha. Keep it coming, my man.

                    Regarding this topic, I think there are more than a few mid pricers who are capable of making the Wombats Prime. Each year needs to be seen through fresh eyes, as last year's prems and mids are decidedly different. Right now leaning: Heater, Corey, Seedman and Waters as top 4.

                    WombatsFC · 10/01/2015 at 00:18

                    I'm getting close to initiating Chaos theory. Wombats are genetically obliged to have the most robust backend on the continent but I'm thinking it could be time to try that diet thing that I've heard about.

                    throttlefinger · 10/01/2015 at 00:28

                    Naw. Wildly overrated. What you lose in fat you gain in frustration.

                    WombatsFC · 10/01/2015 at 00:32

                    I dunno since the Kardashians came along having a massively fat and hairy butt isn't so unique anymore.

                    throttlefinger · 10/01/2015 at 00:36

                    Yes, the waxed ass industry has taken quite a hit.

                    Dools · 09/01/2015 at 23:03

                    Yes I think you have until you roll to your breakout article reply to some unfortunate LOL who will never again query these pages .

                    WombatsFC · 09/01/2015 at 23:13

                    The warning was clear and concise. If they were offended they can get stuffed and I mite bite. They knew going in that it wouldn't all be tittybongs and rainbows.99.99% of snake bite victims in Australia deserved it. The exception being me when I was trying to help a copperhead that'd been deliberately run over by some Australia hating nutjob.

                    Dools · 09/01/2015 at 23:01

                    You are welcome to join TF besides Mr S.D. whom have you gone for as a Value pick in Def beyond bye rounds??

                    throttlefinger · 09/01/2015 at 23:04

                    All those picks are value picks, Dools. That's what I'm banking on, given their talents, shifts in team/structures (no Henri) and past scoring abilities. Waters and Seedsman may be upgrade bait but hoping not. Safe bets either way.

                    Dools · 09/01/2015 at 23:23

                    Ah there you are my East Coast dwelling compañero. so locking you down for Mr. S.D. and one more???? But Why in TFs words why?

                    throttlefinger · 09/01/2015 at 23:39

                    Haha. Wouldn't say locked down. More like "extremely cozy". Given how it helps my overall structure and flexibility and solid value it potentially presents. Key word "potentially" as we don't know until we get a glimpse preseason and after H/A is in mid swing.

                    But I've done much research (which helping work on the magazine has given me MUCH stronger insights into all planning), I'm fairly comfortable with this bunch. Shall see if it's locked.

                    Dools · 10/01/2015 at 00:07

                    I see an evasive non committal answer hidden in that TF,
                    My idea is not to be vague but concise forthright and name names
                    Like Smith (re Sarahs posts very refreshing) or your own previous articles mate what makes me want to do this is I would like the rest of the community to get a hike up across just one line as I firmly think this is were it will be decided. Maybe just a pipe dream but Solids are Solids, a trade saved is a Trade not wasted and a Pick in SC that could be the difference between A trade to far to save some.
                    It is as I said a dream but using this page could add to enjoyment not exclusivity

                    throttlefinger · 10/01/2015 at 00:10

                    Not getting you, my friend. Was pretty straightforward in my previous replies about where my head is at with my back line. Fairly locked in yet shit happens so wouldn't say lock about anyone.

                    Heater, Corey, Seedsman & Waters. That's my D1-D4.

                    Dools · 10/01/2015 at 00:32

                    Sorry TF I missed that one I like it but I am asking also the why as in those 4?
                    I get they are not locks but just a justification for any one except Mr S.D. I get it but why for instance Beau?? what is it that you think regards Mr Waters and why mate ???

                    throttlefinger · 10/01/2015 at 00:44

                    Waters – if healthy, he's proven to be reliable 85+ scorer who can hit the occasional 120+ score. Big if for sure. But at that price, worth the risk. More upside than down. And if Sandilands can stay healthy all year, then I think it's possible for anyone to.

                    Seedsman is gonna fill for the Chosen One most likely. Will take a good showing preseason to lock but think he could average 80-85. If not, could go Ibbo who I like as well (although not the biggest fan of Ross DEFs).

                    Game of risk. The place where I'm willing to take a chance or two is in the less reliable line. In my opinion that's the back. Think Heater and Corey could be my sure and steadies. Seedsman/Ibbo and Waters are were I'm rolling the dice. But the numbers say if they're healthy, could be a solid keeper or great upgrade target.

                    I'm more for seeing who's panning out to be the big guns then trading them in around the byes. So 2 I'm good with for the long haul. D3/D4 I hope accompany them. If not, money for an upgrade.

                    Dools · 10/01/2015 at 02:01

                    Now TF that's the thinking I need from the New Lands …Thanks for bearing your soul I appreciate this I owe you bro

                    throttlefinger · 10/01/2015 at 02:41

                    Head a bit more scrambled then usual, Dools. Happy as always to share my pretzel logic with you.

                    Forward line is a bit more locked. F5: Bellychambers (ruck support) and F6 (Garlett…could be a smokey)

                    WombatsFC · 10/01/2015 at 00:21

                    He did not have sexual relations with that woman.

                    throttlefinger · 10/01/2015 at 00:30

                    It was only a toe. Eyes swears.

                    Dools · 10/01/2015 at 00:34

                    What are you doing Mr Clinton ???!!! Wombats get out of there now Sh1ts going to stain your coat!

                    WombatsFC · 10/01/2015 at 00:39

                    Mate I can't afford to be wasting money by snrffing beer out of my nose. How about a warning next time.

                    WombatsFC · 10/01/2015 at 00:40

                    I'm still laughing. You're a; legend

                    Dools · 10/01/2015 at 01:34

                    No Wombats you are

                    throttlefinger · 10/01/2015 at 00:53

                    Well done, Doolser. Coffee splurt almost short-circuited laptop.

                    Dools · 10/01/2015 at 01:36

                    Did you see that TF, congressional hearing immanent on a Roman Scale you may be called in 2 or maybe 300 years as an eye witness

                    throttlefinger · 10/01/2015 at 01:46

                    I'm a Carpe Soilum type of guy. I live in the soil of the moment. Past soilings, my recall is lacking. Afraid I'd be a terrible witness (in both the congressional and otherwise sense).

              jockreynolds · 09/01/2015 at 21:28

              Cracking commenting action here Dools. I'm leaning the other way a touch mate. I reckon the backs will be so fickle this year that to nail four soild starting premium / semi premium defenders and having them stay in for the long haul will be bloody difficult. At this stage I'll probably look to bring in just 2 – 3 that I expect to stay put – and might use the def line for a bit of money laundering.

                Dools · 09/01/2015 at 21:42

                I get where your coming from Jock… I 'm more a def line set The other line being Rucs so I can trade my ass off in only hopefully 2 others

                @LekBlog · 10/01/2015 at 21:16

                Agreed Jock

                Dools · 11/01/2015 at 00:11

                I'm beginning to come around Jock, What I thought would be easy (er) has in fact thrown up some serious backline issues if a Keeper does not perform …….. More fridge time required to nut this out mate

          I N Pieman · 09/01/2015 at 19:57

          Waters appealing at that price. Ibbo works for Ross. Walker ultimate burn man

            Dools · 09/01/2015 at 20:09

            INP I get how you fell but the string is not for criticism mate I asked for Perceived value picks not for anyone to be burned because they think its a value pick. What about you mate , who is your Def Value pick???

              BCHawks · 09/01/2015 at 20:17

              Sorry Dools didn't mean you meant premo's. I still think that Walker could score as well as he did in 2013. A lot of other options are just to risky for me. I am just going to play it safe with my premo defenders this year. So far I am looking at Walker ,Smith, Birchall, Hibbard and Shaw all of which I can see averaging 90+ this year.

                Dools · 09/01/2015 at 20:35

                Thanks mate I tend to agree much as it hurts me Hibberd is a valid pick this year as are shaw if he stays out of the pubs/gaming rooms (Just a bit of humour) and Smith definitely in my book

              I N Pieman · 09/01/2015 at 22:26

              Dools iv'e been torchd by Walker too many times. I don't see him as value. Ibbotson difference betweenbest & worst is huge. Can miss games as well. More calue than Walker but Waters at his price is value. If he gets through the preseason I doubt i'll be able to knock him back. Tom Langdon could be value. He was going great guns till he slammed into the wall at high speed mid year. His first half of the season was outstanding. Second half was what happened to most first year players. Doubt ill pick him, but i'll be tracking him.

                Dools · 09/01/2015 at 22:41

                See value adding is not so hard is it INP ??? So I need a Solid from you and a wee bit of why in your on words?

            NumbatsFC · 09/01/2015 at 22:10

            I agree. How could you not consider Waters & Ibbo if they played for the Bombers or Pies everybody would have them locked already

              Dools · 09/01/2015 at 22:22

              LOL not every one out East is a Pie or Don Numbats…. Most thank the Gods have a healthy disrespect for jumped up "My team is the biggest LOL !!"

                NumbatsFC · 09/01/2015 at 22:27

                I disagree Dools. Priddis should have been a lock at D5 for every starting team last year but was in less than 10%Unless eddie and brayshaw love em you blokes don't know that they exist.

                  I N Pieman · 09/01/2015 at 22:46

                  That's not necessarily true Numbats. Priddis doesn't generally have a high ceiling. Consistent yes but doesn't have the monsters. But he certainly had some last year & a brownlow for good measure. And well deserved. Great to hear of the way he battled & defied the odds. And I think your refering to M5. If he was a defender he'd be first in my team.

                  Dools · 09/01/2015 at 22:51

                  Given Priddis 's breakout in the public eye re Brownlow does not mean he was just another guyon the field to any serious SC follower.
                  You are correct however in relation to Messers, Brayshaw and McGuire That is why you need to post more as you have your finger on the pulse out there mate we get bugger all here unless we know a man who knew a man with one arm who swore Dr Kimbal did it!!! I was very lucky I Lived in WA for 4 years so I got hooked up but time and distance are killers against the local day to day knowledge that West centric papers and media generate as opposed to the more heavy side of things out East.
                  Post more Numbats you are more then capable of stringing your words intelligibly and with passion

                    NumbatsFC · 09/01/2015 at 22:55

                    No worries mate I reckon you probably lived down freo way.

                    Dools · 09/01/2015 at 23:31

                    Close enough mate I worked in around Swanbourne and Cottesloe but I lived life in Freo ..

                    NumbatsFC · 09/01/2015 at 23:38

                    Hmm Cottesloe milf is some of the best in the world.

                    Dools · 10/01/2015 at 00:13

                    LOL,Yes my time running the sand steps usually ended up with me nursing a wrenched neck and a sore chest hitting obstacles like lampposts or one time a shower block!!!

                    throttlefinger · 09/01/2015 at 22:59

                    Big on Priddis. Given his consistency and the Eagles will have a healthier midfield, his numbers should be as good if not better.

                    Great article in the magazine coming out about the values of premiums.

                    Dools · 09/01/2015 at 23:55

                    Ahh thanks mate I will send an e-mail now reply if it makes it

                    WombatsFC · 09/01/2015 at 23:59

                    LOL how are ya Jason?

                  WombatsFC · 09/01/2015 at 23:57

                  Numbats your way too hung up on fluffy tails and Hair. In who's world was Priddis a lock for M5? He cost 544k and Ollie was only 399k. Priddis didn't stay above an ave of 100 until round 8, Ollie never went below 100 and started with 146.

                  Western australians know nothing about football in the east

NumbatsFC · 09/01/2015 at 21:55

Hi LekDog, why do you say to wait on Brodie? Do you think that there are better options for D1,D2 and D3 or do you think that he is going to drop in value?
He looks like a really safe option to me but SA doesn't exist in our media.

    I N Pieman · 09/01/2015 at 22:54

    When I wasn't as serious at this business Numbats i'd go Vic safe players I knew of. Now I trawl the country searching for options. If Caleb Daniel was from Vic would he have gone at 46. It's hard to say. But he may well have gone earlier. I think Sarah's earlier comments of mid time for Brodie it's perked up a few eyebrows. Leks point is that history tells us Defenders around 500k or above almost always drop in value during the season. When they drop to basement price you strike.

    @LekBlog · 10/01/2015 at 21:11

    My issue is that he will drop value, I love him and he'll be in my team but I'm gonna pick him up later on when some cheapies have gained value. I think Shaw and Hibberd's values will fluctuate less which is why I a looking at them.

      @LekBlog · 10/01/2015 at 22:03

      Also his average of 83.5 over his last 5 games of the year doesn't match up to his price of 500k, he is priced to average around 100 at that price.

      I'm happy to look foolish though if he comes out and smashes it.

        WombatsFC · 10/01/2015 at 22:15

        sorry mate I read the whole article but only the first line of your verdict and started commenting, oops.
        Consequently most of my comments portray you as an evil villain with the stereotypical well manicured mustache when for this article that isn't true.

        A day or so ago I did praise this article though so it sort of evens out if you add this.

        Max · 11/01/2015 at 01:05

        G’day Lek
        if you’re starting someone… Does it really matter about there SD and fluctuating price? Surely you pick him for his total points and average throughout the year… For what I’ve seen Hibberd and Shaw will more than likely miss games. Hibberd’s Hamstring and Shaw’s damn Brain fades. Then for overall average if smith plays midfield he will average 3-7pts more than those 2 anyway… You’re scoring more and yes paying more but if you’re happy with your team and you’ve got enough $$ to go from Hibbo/Shaw etc… To smith you do it?

WombatsFC · 10/01/2015 at 00:42

Priddis a lock for M5 last year pfffft

    throttlefinger · 10/01/2015 at 00:52

    Hahahaha. Lock for M3 this year!

@SeanySamp · 10/01/2015 at 01:11

Was experimenting a team with the backline stacked, came up with this:
DEF: Shaw, Smith, Hibberd, Birchall, Newnes, Waters (Whitecross, Goddard)
MID: Pendlebury, Fyfe, Dangerfield, Griffen, Rich, Van Berlo, Brayshaw, Heeney (Newton, Cripps, Freeman)
RUC: Naitanui, Leuenberger (Cox)
FWD: Deledio, Swan, Mitchell, Petracca, Clark, Hogan (Steele, Daniel)
This potentially means I won't have to make a single change to the defensive 6 if Newnes and Waters pull through (although inevitably I will with injuries etc.).
I've still got reasonable scoring power and a stack of money machines through the mids and forwards.
What's the thoughts on this strategy?

    Captainchardonnay · 10/01/2015 at 16:18

    Solid strategy. Like it a lot.

taylorwoof · 10/01/2015 at 01:53

Does the current 'Fan Planner' for SC Gold customers have the percentage of teams, each player has been chosen in?

Dools · 10/01/2015 at 01:54

Hey SS, Okay instead of me reducing your team why do you not go just through your back line player by player and explain your choice?? Nothing wrong with it just need to justify or if you have a secret keep it just pick lets say Birchell Why him??

    @SeanySamp · 10/01/2015 at 23:57

    Hey Dools, was more just providing an example of the 'stacked backs' strategy that I was thinking of, and showing the affect it had on the rest of the team. But for what it's worth:
    Shaw – I'm a bit worried about his return of games (has played under 20 the last 7 years!), but with a more experienced GWS team winning more of the ball, I reckon he could go back up to a high 90s-100 average.
    Smith – As implied in the article, he looks set for more midfield time, which is sure to see an increase in output.
    Hibberd – Has the ability to improve his average slightly I reckon, and has a nice SD.
    Birchall – Similar to Hibberd, could return to his average of low-mid 90s with an uninterrupted year, and is reliable.
    Newnes – Bit of a value pick, and hopefully with more midfield time and natural development can raise his average by 10-15.
    Waters – Picking him for obvious reasons (value).

Captainchardonnay · 10/01/2015 at 16:17

Sorry Lek dog, you're off the money here. He's a lock for 2015. Starts as 2nd price defender in rd 1, will finish top 5 at worst. Save yourself a trade and start with him

    @LekBlog · 10/01/2015 at 21:58

    Great player but I think his low scores warrant an initial avoidance. He averaged 83.4 in his last 5 games and 95 for his first 5 games last year, those numbers worry me enough to wait for a price drop. As it stands he'd priced to average 100 and he won't be doing that straight of the bat.

Give It A Go · 10/01/2015 at 18:34

Def keep an eye on him and see how he pans out.
.
Last season Henderson was on SC minds,

Whats your thoughts on him this season?

Dools · 10/01/2015 at 20:08

Very Nice Give It , last 8 games for the year yielded 59.5 , top of 83 last game of the year interesting very, very interesting !!! Whats his Coin mate?

    WombatsFC · 10/01/2015 at 21:01

    Damn Dools lucky you spoke up I was considering this bloke until I saw 8 x below 80 with 3 of them below 60 and only 3 tons after round 13. This bloke is rubbish. LekDog is nastier than I ever was

      taylorwoof · 10/01/2015 at 21:26

      The kids can cross him on their lists now.

        WombatsFC · 10/01/2015 at 21:30

        haha. Nah they don't read the discussions. They come for the gold but ignore it

          taylorwoof · 10/01/2015 at 21:36

          Hahahaha….They only look for it served on a spoon.

            WombatsFC · 10/01/2015 at 21:42

            Is Josh Gibson playing this year or has he taken up that modelling gig in the USA

              taylorwoof · 10/01/2015 at 21:55

              Playing. Someone's got to help mould nephew of spud into something that mildly resembles a footballer.

                WombatsFC · 10/01/2015 at 22:00

                Sounds like you're in love.

                  taylorwoof · 10/01/2015 at 22:01

                  Don't get me started!

            WombatsFC · 10/01/2015 at 22:06

            When we all know that its best in lines

      Dools · 10/01/2015 at 22:25

      Are we talking Ricky Hendo Mate or have you gone blue Henderson on me Womby LOL

        WombatsFC · 10/01/2015 at 22:28

        Nuh you got me there? But seeing as you posed the question in such a unique manner. I'd definitely feel safer with Lachie

          Dools · 10/01/2015 at 22:35

          I find it interesting that Ricky played the last games of the year and eased into it, he is a possibility but need to know more… To the fridge my marsupial friend !

            WombatsFC · 10/01/2015 at 22:42

            Billys are best, even if you don't have a campfire.

          WombatsFC · 10/01/2015 at 22:39

          Highest scoring lockdown fullback for the past 2 years but recruited as a forward in the Fev deal. Everytime he goes forward he kicks goals. Ave 83+ in 2013

          Hasn't lost a 1on1 marking contest in 3 years. This year as FF he has Casboult and kruezer to help ensure that most of his marking contests are 1on1 and, he can slam them through from 50.
          Hmm Marks and multiple goals from outside 50 from a bloke at 395k or tissuepaper ligaments in a 319k defender

            Give It A Go · 10/01/2015 at 23:16

            Sorry Lads, talking about R-Henderson at $319, have to check out his NAB sessions later on,
            could be a great pod!

            Dools · 10/01/2015 at 23:30

            Hahahahah you still on the Blues LOL

              WombatsFC · 10/01/2015 at 23:35

              Find me a better sub 400k forward keeper

Give It A Go · 10/01/2015 at 23:35

Just check out some stats, could be barking up the wrong tree!!

2014 Played 8games avg61.8
2013 played 14games avg 80.3

Into his 6th season, what will his avg be??

    Dools · 10/01/2015 at 23:42

    Now if you can tell me GIAG that is the $50K Q

      Give It A Go · 11/01/2015 at 00:36

      lol

Seaford Scouse · 13/01/2015 at 19:42

Wow who would have thought that a review of Brodie Smith, (as scintillating as it is LD), would generate one of the most fascinating of pre-season discussions so far!

Whilst the 500k tag is a good yardstick to go by for defenders, this year it provides one of the biggest dilemmas as it’s going to be incredibly difficult to pick the top guns, (just look at the number of +30s who are in the top 10 starters!).This essentially leaves us poor saps in the position of how many of my starters do I need to retain as keepers and how does this fit in to the overall planning?

Been some great discussion above since Sarah posted a view I’ve had since Wombats revealed his magical desert-induced revelation, (very x-filesesque Womby). I think most of the points have been nailed but I guess the question to truly answer is if you follow Wombats thinking how on earth can you expect to get the necessary average without a 500k player from the beginning? I guess if you can work that out then no worries but I’ve been tinkering with it and haven’t got a solution yet. The best I have includes Brodie boy as D1 who to me offers the best value around this price and if he does go mid, (yes its a big if, trained with them there last pre-season too), then he could even prove undervalued and quite possibly become the leading defender.

He’s a definite yes for me at the moment but Nab needs to be watched very carefully as do defensive structures of a number of clubs. (Carlton, Essendon, GCS and Saints in particular IMO). Real shame Biggs didn’t get def attributed to him, feel he will do well at the dogs and that he should have been given to us an option down back. Oh well makes for an interesting twist this year at least and will certainly add plenty of PODs which can only be a good thing. Whoever cracks this and the rucks this season will walk away with the lolly jar. Dools’ fridge probably needs to be swapped for a freezer given it must be open so often trying to solve these 2 enigmas!

Cheers for the great review Lekdog and what an awesome debate…love it!

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