add_filter('comment_flood_filter', '__return_false');

Supercoach 2015 – Brodie Smith

Published by Lekdog on

All-Australian Brodie Smith had a career best year in 2014 – but is that enough to make him fantasy footy relevant?

LekdogI’ll start by saying this community; he is definitely fantasy football relevant. We just have to determine at what point in the season he is going to be relevant.

In 2014 Smith played brilliantly and was honored with an induction into the All-Australian team averaging 93.5 Supercoach points.

Whilst he had a stellar year and was considered to be one of the best defenders in the competition, real life footy honors don’t always translate into fantasy footy. Nick Smith of the Sydney Swans is an example of this, as he was also named in the All-Australian team but only managed to average 70.85 for the season.

 

2015 Price: $502,800
2015 Position: DEF
Games last season: 22
Average last season: 93.5
100+ Games last season: 9
Sub 80 games last season: 8 (Three were scores of 78)
Price range last season: $407K-$517K
Missed games last season: 0
Significant history: All-Australian 2014
Drafted with pick 14 in 2010

CLICK HERE FOR ALL OF OUR SUPERCOACH 2015 PLAYER PREVIEWS

Brodie Smith managed to get into the best 22 players in the real life competition but just barely scraped into the top 50 best Supercoach players at 49. Supercoach is a harsh mistress.

However I’m sure this disparity between Supercoach rank and All-Australian rank won’t get Smith down, as he has steadily increased his average from 50.1 in 2011 to 93.5 in 2014. This climb can be attributed to several things beyond just age. Smith has increased his average Rebound 50’s to 5 a game putting him at 4th in the competition for 2014. He also was ranked 2nd for Total Rebound 50’s behind Nick Malceski (who played 3 more games than Smith).

It’s not so much Brodie Smith’s number of R50’s he produces but rather the WAY he produces them, which gives him his Supercoach points. In 2014 Smith went at 78.2% disposal efficiency for the year meaning he didn’t turn it over much and subsequently meaning he scored well. To compliment his disposal efficiency Smith also favors kicks (at 13 per game) over handballs (9.5 per game) and as we know Supercoach loves kicks.

RISK FACTOR

Smith is a 500k+ defender; if you jump on him too early you will lose money. Smith’s role may change slightly with a new coaching panel which may cause his scores to drop…I’m clutching at straws here, the bottom line is don’t buy a 500k defender.

SELECTION PURPOSE

If you select Smith in your starting lineup then you are banking on his output increasing to above 105 points per-game in 2015. It is the only way we can really justify such a pricey defender in the current Supercoach climate.

My suggestion is you target him after he has lost some value, either as an upgrade or a corrective trade.

THE GOOD

  • Averaged 93.5 for 2014
  • Was good enough for All-Australian selection
  • Solid defensive rebounder
  • Kicks over handballing
  • Is still only 22 and heading into his prime
  • Is a shining light in a miserable looking year for the backline
  • Durable, played 22 games in 2014

THE DOWNSIDE

  • Expensive, over 500k starting price
  • Can have very low scoring games

THE VERDICT

Community I like Brodie Smith, a lot.

He played bloody well last year with high scores of 144, 138 and 133 but defenders are fickle and Smith matched his high scores with scores like his 32 in round 15. I honestly think that Smith could kick it up a notch this year if Adelaide’s new game plan allows him to keep rebounding out of the defensive 50. But 500k is too much for any defender in your starting lineup.

Smith’s price will drop, at which point we should jump on as our options in the back half will be limited in 2015…until then Smith is an upgrade target for a rookie or a downgrade target for an underperforming premium for me.

I think he is capable of taking his game up a notch in 2015 but that won’t come before a price dip, I’ll be watching him very closely through the early stages of the season waiting to jump on him.

My suggestion, wait to acquire Smith at a later date.

Let me know if you’ll be starting with Smith this year community.

Lekdog

Twitter: @lekblog

 BECOME A JOCK MEMBER – EXTENDED LENGTH MONTHLY PODCASTS

 

AFL Supercoach Legend Jock ReynoldsThis article has been penned by an elite Supercoach analyst hand picked from the talent pool of the Jock Reynolds Fantasy Footy Community. He has stood up within our community as a man of fantasy substance, and has displayed the spirit of togetherness, positivity and community that we value significantly.

 


Subscribe
Notify of
guest
205 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
@LekBlog

A little bit of a shorter article from me today everyone but that's what happens when you leave your research at home when you go away to the beach. I think it's pretty good given I drafted it in the wet sand at McCrae beach and sent Polaroids of the writing into the Bungalo for upload.

Smith is good but I don't spend 500k on defenders.

David

What do you think of Devon Smith? GWS are improving and he will score more goals. Averaged 91 last year. Likely to improve on that

@LekBlog

GWS have gained some talent in the midfield so more bal should get up forward. Smith averaged 99.5 after his bye and 114 over his last 5 games of the year. Solid option with slight risk (unproven, GWS will still struggle etc.) will be a nice P.O.D though i see a few people slotting him in their sides.

Captain

Who would you recommend in defence if 500K is too much

@LekBlog

Hibberd and Shaw are both a touch under 500k. I'm a big fan of Hibberd but his ceiling isn't massive. Newnes from St. Kilda is around 400k and I think he'll have a good season…is DPP too

throttlefinger

Brodie Smith was one player that has been sojourning in my Higginator. There one week and gone for 2. Something tantalizing about the scores he can do, yet if he were $100K, nay, $50K cheaper, he'd be a lock. But ass hairs don't turn into gum drops when you pluck 'em so you have to deal. And I think you've nailed it on the head Lekkie. Best to wait. Lot of upside but better to be sure.

And for some reason, my gut has not been that into him. Think he'll help the Crows but don't think he'll be as giving to our SC teams. Just a hunch.

@LekBlog

Agreed Throttle, He'll score well but not enough to maintain a 500k+ score. I'm sure he'll make his way into my team at some stage though.

Sarah

Keep in mind guys that Smith has been training with the midfield group again… like he did last year before Henderson, VB and Shaw went down. He's in line for more midfield rotations this year. Just something to think about. For what it's worth, he's locked into my team for Round 1.

throttlefinger

Yeah, hearing that as well, Sarah.. Yet that's a common claim over the preseason wire. Like any of our non-locks, NAB will reveal what we'll see once R1 starts.

I'm 50/50 on him still. But leaning towards a Heater and Mr. SD as my D1-2.

Jock

Here's an article on it: http://news.optuszoo.com.au/2015/01/05/smith-eyes
It is the common claim Throtts thats for sure. If he was around that $420K mark I would have hi in calculations.

throttlefinger

Ahh. Nice. Saying all the right things. Like like prize fighters who say, "Had a great camp. I'm in the best shape of my career." Never know until the action starts.

@LekBlog

Crameri trained with the midfield group at the doggies last year…I'll just leave this here.

@BarronVonCrow

I'm certainly more confident on it happening this year, than last. As Sarah said injuries to the backline meant we really had no other option but to continue to play Smith back there, but you add Hendo and VB back (Shaw is still injured) who could play Smith's half back role role + Harrison Wigg who's got a pinpoint kick on him, or even Mitch Grigg who's the same and I hope that'll open it up for Smith to play further up the ground. Crows midfield often looks like it's running in quicksand, so having Smith as an option there would be a big bonus.

Koach

Sorry to interrupt your thread here throttle but who is mr sd?

throttlefinger

Corey Enright. Mr. Standard Deviation. Count on him to give you 85-90 a game. Rarely more or less.

Sarah

If you're into SD's Throttle, J Kelly, Newnes and Burgoyne all had SD's similar or better than Enright last year.

throttlefinger

Considering Newnes, Sarah. Not big on Burguyne. Corey had off year due to injuries. Feel form will improve.

@LekBlog

I have Newnes in my team currently, Enright will inevitably make my team for the 5th year in a row

I N Pieman

Nice one Lek. Spending over 500k on a defender isn't a very wise thing to do. Your right that they drop in price & ultimately the best time to pick them is when they bottom out. If Sarah is right about the mid time thing then maybe i'd break the rules. But not in my team at the moment.

@LekBlog

Thanks Pie Man, preseason will reveal all I feel

Jock

Excellent balanced article LekDog. I agree with you in that it would be a mistake to back him in to average 105+ by starting him in your side. Having said that I do occasionally roll the dice on a kid who I have genuine belief in in terms of going the next level. This would need to be backed by some robust belief and assurance in his role for the upcoming season and he's position within a list. As Sarah said above – and we know that 80% of the 'more midfield time' preseason talk is bollocks – he could be a genuine chance for some more rotations. A no from this old prick – but with the crap on offer down back he will start in a few teams

@LekBlog

Thanks for reading mate.
Was only in 5% of teams last year Jock, will surely increase. Won't be starting in mine at this early stage.

Sarah

When selecting my backline there'll be a number of questions I will ask myself, as well as looking at the number of round 1 rookie starters. But the questions will be along these lines:

– Will the player I'm selecting be a keeper? Surely you have to pick one or two priced around $500k as season keepers??
– Is the money I'm saving by selecting Shaw over Smith ($5k) worth it, just because Shaw is below $500k?? Long term do I want Shaw or Smith?

Last year there were 4 defenders priced over $560k and most of us started with at least 2 or 3 of them. This year there is only 1 and only 4 over $500k. They aren't going to break the bank by selecting 1 or 2 of them. The $560k defenders also had greater capacity to lose money. The $500k players… not so much.

In my opinion, you don't want to be trading in 6 defenders just because they've bottomed out and you've saved $50k on their starting price. You will need to start with at least 3 keepers. Determining how much a trade is worth to you at the start of the season is very important. Everyone will view the worth of trades differently.

Also keep in mind, big price drops are usually due to a game where the player suffers an early injury and is subbed… but can you bank on that happening to the players you want??

If Smith does enter the crows midfield rotations (where he played all his pre-AFL footy) then I don't think he'll drop in price enough to make the trade worthwhile. This is why I'll be starting with him.

Disclaimer: This is just my opinion!!

ReltonRoberts

Totally agree with Sarah on this one, currently running with Smith, Birchall and Walker. Although only one is 500k while the others are 470k it doesn't hinder the structure of the rest of my team.

Also Lekdog, you suggest to stay away from Smith because he has potential to lose value which is fair enough, but then you can suggest Hibberd and Shaw who are just as likely to lose value and are roughly 10k cheaper? Don't see the logic in that one. FWIW, i think Shaw and Hibberd are both good players and are likely to end up in my team.

Also of the lower priced defenders (sub ~430k mark) besides maybe Newnes, Docherty and potentially Rampe there is a reason all those players are priced like that. SD Thompson for example is one I wouldn't even bother looking at bringing into my team. One year of averaging 90+ and only 4 100s in his last season. Pass.

If you were looking for someone a bit cheaper around the 450k mark I would suggest either Jeremy Howe or Bachar Houli. I don't have either atm but I can see them stepping up this year. Howe especially had glimpses of becoming a solid option as a HBF.

Sarah

Thanks Relton Roberts.
I've got Smith, Burgoyne, Birchall, Shaw and Kelly fighting for a starting spot in 'Field of Danger' this year.
I'll also be watching Newnes, Docherty, Rampe, Sidebottom and Ibbotson closely in the NAB for the D4 position. All have been in various versions of my team.
Howe is an interesting one. I like him too but I find it really hard to put premo-Melbourne players in my team. Will add him to my NAB watch list!!

ReltonRoberts

I wish i could have Sidebottom as a defender, sadly I think you've had a mix up haha!

I also couldn't bring myself to select a Dees player as a potential keeper, it just doesn't feel right. Still gonna watch him closing in NAB and throughout the year.

Sarah

Haha, Whoops!!! I meant Seedsman!!! I wish I could get Sidebottom as a defender too! Wouldn't that be nice!

vcloophole

Relton, great points. Birchall played sore a lot of the year in 2014, and played more of a sacrificial, non-playmaker role than in previous years. If fit, could he return to his lofty 2013 SC heights? I think he can.

ReltonRoberts

I bloody love Birchall.
He's played 20 or more games in 3 of the last 4 seasons, one being cut down to 14 due to injury.
in those 4 years he's averaged 94, 94.6, 92.1 and 88.9
Also with the addition of Frawley to the line up I doubt he will have to play as much of a defensive role as he did in 2014, hopefully this translates into greater SC output.
With the pool of elite defenders being so shallow this year we're going to have to settle for premium scores of 90+ instead of the 100s from years past. Birch has shown he can manage that.
Did i mention that I bloody love Birchall?

taylorwoof

Relton! The first person to mention Jeremy Howe. He's on my radar as well. All hinges on what end of the ground he plays at, gut says he goes forward in 2015.

Sarah – I concur with everything you said ^ there, bravo! Currently have 3 x 490K > defenders in my side.

ReltonRoberts

Yep, if Howe isn't playing predominantly off the half back he won't be getting a look in. Also don't want to have to deal with Roos rubbish, he's worse for SC than Ross the Boss.

WombatsFC

That's a very good opinion disguised as good logical advice. There is a massive increase in rankings available for all those ranked outside the top 10,000 by following these principles. Thanks Sarah

Sarah

Thanks WombatsFC.
I was trying to make it not sound like a lecture!!! Not sure I succeeded, hence the disclaimer!

General Soreness

So very well said!

Nate

Smith is a lock for me.
running with
Def: Smith, Shaw, Lumumba
Waters, whitecross, Moore
(maynard, Goddard)

Tman

Splendid work Lek. Good discussion folks.

I with you Sarah, a trade is probably worth more than 50k. I look at it this way …if I stand to make 50k from a rookie…id leave him well alone. Thinking back to last year all the best defs seemed bob up and down between 470-550k throughout the season.

Having said that, I am yet to lock my def keepers. Stuggling more than I ever have with the def line.

Sarah

Exactly Tman! You wouldn't pick a rookie if you knew you'd only make $50k out of him. So why not pick a premo just to 'hopefully' save $50k trading him in later???

I reckon picking the defence this year is the hardest ever.

Tman

I suspect there will be many sleepless nights between now and rd1, putting the def jigsaw puzzle together. :p)

Tman

Guess I need to crack the wombat code. :O)

WombatsFC

Thanks LekDog I think this article identifies Brodie as the safest option for a Premo defender in 2015, if you really want a premo defender in 2015.
I think he'll be a top 4 SC defender this year.

You also mentioned Nick, what is the probability of him filling eski's role?

Sarah

Isn't Nick Smith more of a lockdown defender? I'd think it more likely that Rampe would fill eski's roll. Hopefully they both play NAB and we can get a good look at how the Swans defence will cover the loss of eski.

WombatsFC

True and 2014 was the first time he his ave broke 70 after six years. So it's not like he'd been wearing the velcro to learn the swans defensive structure.Just noticed eski's history from 2006 onwards. 67, 100, 51, 96, 67, 75, 90, 105 What's the next number in that pattern?

Sarah

Interesting. The next number probably depends on whether his knee holds together. Either way, I won't be starting with eski.

WombatsFC

Yep he he looks like the safety of a Gecko tongue but is actually a Bearded man with a list of surgeries.

@LekBlog

There was an article the other day from Sydney's website where they identified McVeigh as the man to replace Malceski. Meaning Tom Mitchell is sure to get game time

vcloophole

A lil nugget of gold right there

taylorwoof

Next number, 120.

WombatsFC

How'd you get 120? I had 67

taylorwoof

75, 90, 105, 120 – Increments of 15.

All this Anti-Esky talk has made me squeeze him into my current side.

WombatsFC

Every 4th year 67.
First 67 being year 0

taylorwoof

Arhhhh….now i see it.

Could be a leap year for the Beard.

WombatsFC

Nope he's a “slash your wrists with a razor' defender this year

Dools

You are eclectic today wombats Love it hahahaah

@cafosk

There are a few that could step into Eski's role, I'd think it would be Rampe, with McVeigh making regular appearances. However, Rohan($272) I think might be a smokey for that secondary rebounder, I've got him in as my D5 at the moment

WombatsFC

Sorry for the temporary change of subject but when I went to sleep it was summer.. Have I missed any games?

Dools

This year more then any previous SC years SC glory will be won and lost in Def.
I agree with Sarah – A player whom is selected as a keeper (Barring injury or suspension) is a trade saved. The less trading in the back line allows more trading in the money line and of course the Injury risks in the Ruc later in the season.
Given the less then solid DPP and KPP Forwards most trading will be required on that line me thinks a solid backline is a MUST
A solid backline is the building block for winning your cash leagues or the whole shebang.
Do not go cheap in Def is what I'm saying apply the Wombat Prime. The more keepers in the backline allows for tactical freedom trading on others.
That's the Fridges Strategy and I'm totally on board.

BCHawks

The only thing I am skeptical about going with a few premo defenders is I'm not sure who will stand out as the best 6 defenders that is why going more mid prices and rookies allows you to save money and gives you a chance to see which defenders stand out.

NumbatsFC

Hi LekDog, why do you say to wait on Brodie? Do you think that there are better options for D1,D2 and D3 or do you think that he is going to drop in value?
He looks like a really safe option to me but SA doesn't exist in our media.

@LekBlog

My issue is that he will drop value, I love him and he'll be in my team but I'm gonna pick him up later on when some cheapies have gained value. I think Shaw and Hibberd's values will fluctuate less which is why I a looking at them.

@LekBlog

Also his average of 83.5 over his last 5 games of the year doesn't match up to his price of 500k, he is priced to average around 100 at that price.

I'm happy to look foolish though if he comes out and smashes it.

WombatsFC

sorry mate I read the whole article but only the first line of your verdict and started commenting, oops.
Consequently most of my comments portray you as an evil villain with the stereotypical well manicured mustache when for this article that isn't true.

A day or so ago I did praise this article though so it sort of evens out if you add this.

Max

G’day Lek
if you’re starting someone… Does it really matter about there SD and fluctuating price? Surely you pick him for his total points and average throughout the year… For what I’ve seen Hibberd and Shaw will more than likely miss games. Hibberd’s Hamstring and Shaw’s damn Brain fades. Then for overall average if smith plays midfield he will average 3-7pts more than those 2 anyway… You’re scoring more and yes paying more but if you’re happy with your team and you’ve got enough $$ to go from Hibbo/Shaw etc… To smith you do it?

WombatsFC

Priddis a lock for M5 last year pfffft

throttlefinger

Hahahaha. Lock for M3 this year!

@SeanySamp

Was experimenting a team with the backline stacked, came up with this:
DEF: Shaw, Smith, Hibberd, Birchall, Newnes, Waters (Whitecross, Goddard)
MID: Pendlebury, Fyfe, Dangerfield, Griffen, Rich, Van Berlo, Brayshaw, Heeney (Newton, Cripps, Freeman)
RUC: Naitanui, Leuenberger (Cox)
FWD: Deledio, Swan, Mitchell, Petracca, Clark, Hogan (Steele, Daniel)
This potentially means I won't have to make a single change to the defensive 6 if Newnes and Waters pull through (although inevitably I will with injuries etc.).
I've still got reasonable scoring power and a stack of money machines through the mids and forwards.
What's the thoughts on this strategy?

Captainchardonnay

Solid strategy. Like it a lot.

taylorwoof

Does the current 'Fan Planner' for SC Gold customers have the percentage of teams, each player has been chosen in?

Dools

Hey SS, Okay instead of me reducing your team why do you not go just through your back line player by player and explain your choice?? Nothing wrong with it just need to justify or if you have a secret keep it just pick lets say Birchell Why him??

@SeanySamp

Hey Dools, was more just providing an example of the 'stacked backs' strategy that I was thinking of, and showing the affect it had on the rest of the team. But for what it's worth:
Shaw – I'm a bit worried about his return of games (has played under 20 the last 7 years!), but with a more experienced GWS team winning more of the ball, I reckon he could go back up to a high 90s-100 average.
Smith – As implied in the article, he looks set for more midfield time, which is sure to see an increase in output.
Hibberd – Has the ability to improve his average slightly I reckon, and has a nice SD.
Birchall – Similar to Hibberd, could return to his average of low-mid 90s with an uninterrupted year, and is reliable.
Newnes – Bit of a value pick, and hopefully with more midfield time and natural development can raise his average by 10-15.
Waters – Picking him for obvious reasons (value).

Captainchardonnay

Sorry Lek dog, you're off the money here. He's a lock for 2015. Starts as 2nd price defender in rd 1, will finish top 5 at worst. Save yourself a trade and start with him

@LekBlog

Great player but I think his low scores warrant an initial avoidance. He averaged 83.4 in his last 5 games and 95 for his first 5 games last year, those numbers worry me enough to wait for a price drop. As it stands he'd priced to average 100 and he won't be doing that straight of the bat.

Give It A Go

Def keep an eye on him and see how he pans out.
.
Last season Henderson was on SC minds,

Whats your thoughts on him this season?

Dools

Very Nice Give It , last 8 games for the year yielded 59.5 , top of 83 last game of the year interesting very, very interesting !!! Whats his Coin mate?

WombatsFC

Damn Dools lucky you spoke up I was considering this bloke until I saw 8 x below 80 with 3 of them below 60 and only 3 tons after round 13. This bloke is rubbish. LekDog is nastier than I ever was

taylorwoof

The kids can cross him on their lists now.

WombatsFC

haha. Nah they don't read the discussions. They come for the gold but ignore it

taylorwoof

Hahahaha….They only look for it served on a spoon.

WombatsFC

Is Josh Gibson playing this year or has he taken up that modelling gig in the USA

taylorwoof

Playing. Someone's got to help mould nephew of spud into something that mildly resembles a footballer.

WombatsFC

Sounds like you're in love.

taylorwoof

Don't get me started!

WombatsFC

When we all know that its best in lines

Dools

Are we talking Ricky Hendo Mate or have you gone blue Henderson on me Womby LOL

WombatsFC

Nuh you got me there? But seeing as you posed the question in such a unique manner. I'd definitely feel safer with Lachie

Dools

I find it interesting that Ricky played the last games of the year and eased into it, he is a possibility but need to know more… To the fridge my marsupial friend !

WombatsFC

Billys are best, even if you don't have a campfire.

WombatsFC

Highest scoring lockdown fullback for the past 2 years but recruited as a forward in the Fev deal. Everytime he goes forward he kicks goals. Ave 83+ in 2013

Hasn't lost a 1on1 marking contest in 3 years. This year as FF he has Casboult and kruezer to help ensure that most of his marking contests are 1on1 and, he can slam them through from 50.
Hmm Marks and multiple goals from outside 50 from a bloke at 395k or tissuepaper ligaments in a 319k defender

Give It A Go

Sorry Lads, talking about R-Henderson at $319, have to check out his NAB sessions later on,
could be a great pod!

Dools

Hahahahah you still on the Blues LOL

WombatsFC

Find me a better sub 400k forward keeper

Give It A Go

Just check out some stats, could be barking up the wrong tree!!

2014 Played 8games avg61.8
2013 played 14games avg 80.3

Into his 6th season, what will his avg be??

Dools

Now if you can tell me GIAG that is the $50K Q

Give It A Go

lol

Seaford Scouse

Wow who would have thought that a review of Brodie Smith, (as scintillating as it is LD), would generate one of the most fascinating of pre-season discussions so far!

Whilst the 500k tag is a good yardstick to go by for defenders, this year it provides one of the biggest dilemmas as it’s going to be incredibly difficult to pick the top guns, (just look at the number of +30s who are in the top 10 starters!).This essentially leaves us poor saps in the position of how many of my starters do I need to retain as keepers and how does this fit in to the overall planning?

Been some great discussion above since Sarah posted a view I’ve had since Wombats revealed his magical desert-induced revelation, (very x-filesesque Womby). I think most of the points have been nailed but I guess the question to truly answer is if you follow Wombats thinking how on earth can you expect to get the necessary average without a 500k player from the beginning? I guess if you can work that out then no worries but I’ve been tinkering with it and haven’t got a solution yet. The best I have includes Brodie boy as D1 who to me offers the best value around this price and if he does go mid, (yes its a big if, trained with them there last pre-season too), then he could even prove undervalued and quite possibly become the leading defender.

He’s a definite yes for me at the moment but Nab needs to be watched very carefully as do defensive structures of a number of clubs. (Carlton, Essendon, GCS and Saints in particular IMO). Real shame Biggs didn’t get def attributed to him, feel he will do well at the dogs and that he should have been given to us an option down back. Oh well makes for an interesting twist this year at least and will certainly add plenty of PODs which can only be a good thing. Whoever cracks this and the rucks this season will walk away with the lolly jar. Dools’ fridge probably needs to be swapped for a freezer given it must be open so often trying to solve these 2 enigmas!

Cheers for the great review Lekdog and what an awesome debate…love it!