Snapped Achilles in 2014, is NVB a cheap option in 2015?

TG Footy Tracgic - DexterNormally I wouldn’t even consider Nathan van Berlo, but value is value.

Is NVB value in 2015?

Van Berlo is known for his elite endurance. He can run all day and probably all night too. This is the main reason his usual job is a run-with player – also known as a tagger. Traditionally, taggers are the nasty dregs of Supercoach that we stay away from because their use is usually rushed and inefficient; they’re mostly focused more on the man than the ball – therefore not getting enough possessions etc.

NVB’s 2013 season is testament to that fact. He played 19 of the 22 games in the Home and Away season, missing 3 from bone bruising in the knee. He averaged 17 disposals; with 64% being kicks. 6.9 contested possessions, 62% DE, 3 clangers and 3.3 tackles. Not massive numbers, but not terrible. What’s damning about his year is – playing as a tagger – he averaged a turd riddled 66.9 SC, but what’s worse, he only cracked the 80 mark 3 times for a top of 95 – hardly exciting.

Go further back to 2012; he played every game, although two were affected by injury and subsequent subbing. Ignoring these 2 games, he finished the season with an average of 82.7. 2012 was a season of 2 halves for NVB. Excluding the subbings; up until the bye he averaged an impressive 95.8 SC (3 tons – high of 120, 2 sub-80’s – low of 69). He averaged 22 disposals (69% kicks), 9.1 CP, 4.4 I50’s, 1 R50’s, 7.8 tackles, 66% DE & 2.9 clangers. Post bye (excl sub) he averaged 72 (0 tons – high of 93, 7 sub 80’s – low of 52). He averaged 17.6 disposals (60% kicks), 6.2 CP, 2.6 I50’s, 1.7 R50’s, 3.7 tackles, 69% DE & 2.2 clangers.

Analysing the differences from the halves of 2012; we see a distinct drop of tackles, contested possessions, inside 50’s, rebound 50’s and disposals. This could be put down to either a less attacking & more defensive tag role, or he could have been carrying an injury.

2015 Price: $215,600
2015 Position: MID
Games last season: 0 (19 in 2013)
Average last season: 0 (66.9 in 2013)
100+ games last season: 0 (0 in 2013)
Sub 80 games last season: 0 (14 in 2013)
Price range last season: No change
Missed games last season: ALL; Achilles rupture in preseason
Significant history: Between 2006 and 2013 missed 10 games.
Averaged 66.89 in 2013, 76.91 in 2012, 87.68 in 2011
Captain of the Adelaide Crows since 2011
Drafted at pick 24 in the 2004 National draft.

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His best year came in 2011 – when Neil Craig was coach of the Crows. I can’t seem to find anything solid on where he played or his game-style – so I’ll be just delving into the stats.

2011 was a bit of a mixed year (Supercoach-wise) most of the year he seemed to score between 50’s and low 80’s with the odd 100 score peppered in there, but in round 19 something clicked and he pumped out 5 consecutive tons at an average of 113.2. In that 5 round purple patch he seemed to play a more contested-style, he averaged more possessions (30 – 21.6), tackles (5.6 – 2.8), contested possessions (10 – 6.8), marks (6.2 – 5.6) – pretty much everything compared to the other 17 rounds in the year.

Looking over his stats in the 2011-2014 seasons; there are a few things to take note of. The most alarming – he hasn’t tonned up since round 8, 2012. That’s 33 games where he hasn’t scored a ton. In those 33 games, he has gone sub 80 22 times. That’s 66% of games since round 8 2012, NVB hasn’t cracked 80 SC points… All of NVB’s 11 SC tons were scored in his first 30 games from the first game of 2011.

Image 1
Now, mix the above details with the fact that he is returning from a nasty LTI. I’m saying it now, don’t expect anything more than a 75 average TOPS from NVB. I’d say more a 65-70 average seems more realistic. Considering 215k is priced to average 40, he presents some serious value.

RISK FACTORS

LTI returnee.
Expensive rookie price

SELECTION PURPOSE

If anything, NVB is a stepping stone player. Pick him with the aim to make the coin, cash in a rookie and jump on a fallen premo. Or, hope he makes a bit and downgrade him to a bubble boy.

THE GOOD

  • Other than his LTI, he missed 10 games since 2006. You could say he is durable.
  • Generally kicks more than handballs
  • Averaged almost 20 SC more in wins since 2011 – if you see crows win more in 2015 he could be for you.
  • Has shown he can carry form – rounds 19-23, 2011 – averaged 113.2

THE DOWNSIDE

  • Significant amount of turds in jocks (over 50% of scores since 2011 at sub 80)
  • Generally plays as a tagger. More worried about the man.
  • LTI returnee – could start slow or re-injure himself.
  • Is NVB still in Adelaide’s best 22?

THE VERDICT

No offense Nathan, but you have had too many historic turds in your Supercoach underpant – IBS maybe? Even in your best Supercoach year (2011) you had more sub 80 scores than tons. And you scored 8 bloody tons!

In all seriousness, 215k for a senior player – admittedly a tagger – is great value. I cannot see him even coming close to a ton, but he’ll be a nice benchwarmer to (hopefully) get games and appreciate nicely, ready for the chop come bye time.

He’s even better value, considering the 3 midfield rookie places we all have access to.

For me it’s a…

YES!

Right or wrong Community? Would love your thoughts!

Dexter

Twitter: @TG_Footy_Tragic

 

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49 Comments

@LekBlog · 02/01/2015 at 23:44

It's hard to say no to a cheap seasoned player but Macaffer came back after missing a similar amount of time in a similar role in 2013 and wasn't all that great. I dunno I'd like to see how some rookies go in pre-season but I don't mind the idea of Nathan Value? Berlo being on my bench.

Leighroy · 02/01/2015 at 23:48

Great write up dex. I didn’t realise his standard deviation was so high. New coach may mean a new role and kerridge has been doing some tagging while nvb has been out. I currently have him as he should have good job security and like you dex trade him in the bye rounds. If I see a cheaper midfield rookie that looks like playing I will select him and nvb will be gone but time will tell.

Captain · 03/01/2015 at 00:12

Still weighing up that spot in mid, a lot of options: Petracca, Cripps, Pickett, Blease and Cockatoo to name a few.

Cripps especially because he could be the Tyson of this year IMO

    @LekBlog · 03/01/2015 at 00:59

    Which Cripps is that mate?

Dasher · 03/01/2015 at 02:00

He's talking about Patrick Cripps. Also N.Van Berlo is a definite NO. Cheaper options will emerge during NAB.

I N Pieman · 03/01/2015 at 08:01

Fantastic Dex. One of the most important pieces so far. I'm actualy suprised you said yes. But I can understand why. A seasoned hard bodied player underpriced can't be ignored. I did some research on him earlier & saw most of the stats you did. Priced to average 40 & an almost certain 65+ average is value. But I agree with Dasher. With the likes of Heeney, Freeman, Boekhorst, Laverde, Cripps, Anderson & others that should emerge I think better options will present. Having said that, if they don't then VB has to be in your team. I will only pick him as a last resort. Generally the best appreciating rookies come through the Mids. He won't be a Polec or Tyson. Cracking job my friend.

    I N Pieman · 03/01/2015 at 08:19

    Given it's 40 degrees plus today my heart goes out to Dools fridge. This piece & the insane heat will result in the fridge being tortured.

Chicko · 03/01/2015 at 08:25

Dex your search for the truth never ceases to amaze. I’ve got NVB in my team at the moment mainly due to value, but your stats have me second guessing myself and like some of the community, I’m thinking cheaper rookies may be the way to go. A cracking piece mate – pre-season watch is critical as always!

Kev · 03/01/2015 at 08:32

Cracking insight, Dex. I'm leaning towards no at the moment, it's a lot of coin to be sitting on your midfield bench. You want your on-field rookies to be scoring 80 minimum and I'd be a nervous wreck relying on NVB for that.

The rookies INP mentioned will match or succeed a 65-70 average, and for the most part are 100k cheaper. He'll make money definitely, but if he tops out at 350-400k that's not enough for me to justify his starting place.

Jordan · 03/01/2015 at 09:30

What’s the formula to work out the price of a player to see how much he will go up by if he averages x amount of points

phil · 03/01/2015 at 09:38

Great piece Dex, its a no for me. You said at best he will average 75 (which i agree) and if he does that i wont be too disappointed missing out on him at that price. If he averages 65, the ones who dont have him will be happier.

Only way ill consider is if Heeney, Broekhurst, Freeman etc arent named Round 1

    taylorwoof · 03/01/2015 at 19:49

    Thinking exactly the same Phil.

throttlefinger · 03/01/2015 at 09:41

Stellar piece, Dex. Going back and forth between NVB and Petracca. Or a lower priced rook with more SC upside. Not sure what you'll get with a new coach but can't see a player of his caliber getting the vest. And many times just having someone in the game is enough, especially if they can hit 75+ for 5-6 rounds.

Still a big hmmmmmmmm. Sure it will be a mmmmm or naaaaaaaaay after Nab is done.

    I N Pieman · 03/01/2015 at 10:33

    Gday Throts. I have ? over Petracca's tank. Word is he has struggled through some sessions. Wouldn't surprise me to see Brayshaw play first. Roosy isn't big on throwing his rookies in the deep end. I will be tracking Melbourne's pre season for the first time ever. I will be going to some of their training sessions for a first hand look. I'll send you my findings.

      lostlarrikin · 03/01/2015 at 11:55

      yeah exactly INP (re Roos and Rooks)
      NVB is a yes for me, hes def best 22 and they need the capt out there leading from front.
      Great work Dex, awesome stat detail

        throttlefinger · 03/01/2015 at 13:54

        Where's that new logo, Double L?

          lostlarrikin · 03/01/2015 at 14:47

          Thanks for the reminder Throtts.
          Been working remote for a while so not able to load it.

      throttlefinger · 03/01/2015 at 13:53

      Happy New Years, my friend! Thanks for that insight. Yeah, I was worried about that. Think NVB is a long shot. Initially liked that he had the starting gig and wouldn't be a vest concern. But the tagging and possibility of another LTI are high.

      Look extremely forward to reading your Dees finding, INP!

        I N Pieman · 03/01/2015 at 14:24

        I plan to make an effort to get to a Bulldogs training session (allthough not convenient to my travels). There's a few boys I'm keen to have a look at. I am not ruling out NVB yet, but i'd rather a basement priced rookie looking like he will get game time if possible. I think there will be quite a few. I'll have my next piece to Jock shortly on Caleb Daniel. He's at the pointy end of my watchlist.

          throttlefinger · 03/01/2015 at 14:29

          I watched that video on CD you recommended. Amazing ball winner. Very much Boomer-ish. Little bit of Pendles in him as well. Just smooth. Hope he puts his hand up R1.

          Anxious to see how my boy Liam Duggan does in preseason. Was impressed with his footage as well. But Eagles a harder mid to break in. Maybe he'll get some time at half back. Then again, WCE mids never seem to stay healthy for long so he might get slotted in sooner rather than later.

            leighroy · 03/01/2015 at 15:28

            The only issue I have with Daniel is the doggies took half a year to play honeychurch last season. I know they have a new coach but I think honeychurch and hrovat will be in front of him. With Liam Duggan I currently have him in my team but dom sheed was is a massive ball winner the year before and was handed the sub vest a lot. I think the same could happen with Duggan.

              throttlefinger · 03/01/2015 at 15:29

              Excellent points, Leighroy. I was big on Honeychurch last year and he did take a bit to come in. Hrovat is a stud just got knocked down by injury. Awkwardly priced so maybe needs another year before begin SC relevant.

              Yeah, Duggan is more hope than plan. Just eager to see him and the other rooks play.

              leighroy · 03/01/2015 at 15:32

              my mistake this was intended below. Have reposted to where its meant to be.

            I N Pieman · 03/01/2015 at 16:03

            So do I throts. Daniel could be anything. The only thing holding him back is his size. Other than that he is a jet. I like the look of Duggan as well. Nasty price & a tough midfield to crack.

    taylorwoof · 03/01/2015 at 19:31

    That final sentence sums up my thoughts on NVB as well Throtts.

    Hoping a rookie reveals themselves, so i can turf his backside. 70-80K to spend elsewhere would be handy.

      throttlefinger · 03/01/2015 at 23:29

      Happy New Years, T-woof. Doesn't sound like much but having anything over $20K to play with could get you a player that will take you from top 1000 to top 100.

        taylorwoof · 04/01/2015 at 15:13

        Happy New Years to you to Throtts!! Bring on a super 2015!

        You're spot on….a little coin, can mean a lot.

Dan · 03/01/2015 at 10:24

Would love to see a write up on the 2015 Supercoach Chances of guys like Darcy Lang & Jarrad Jansen too, keep up the great work guys!

    I N Pieman · 03/01/2015 at 15:40

    Gday Dan. The problem with the Geelong rookies is they get a couple of games then get shoved back into the two's. They then either gather dust on your bench or you have to trade them. Think Bews last season. Cockatoo might be an exception but who knows.

    vcloophole · 05/01/2015 at 17:34

    Dan, I'm a MAD Geelong man. Nakia Cockatoo will most definitely play a meaningful role in our midfield setup. Lang and Jansen are both great prospects, but are behind Nakia imho. Brad Hartman would be one to keep an NAB form eye on 🙂

@TG_Footy_Tragic · 03/01/2015 at 13:53

Cheers fellas!

Sorry for not being on here recently – with the holidays and kids, you tend to not get as much time…
even though you have more time. if that makes sense…

I have NVB in my team ATM, and I'm a yes solely on the value and (hopeful) guarantee of games. I'll always jump on the better prospects when they make themselves available.

Jordan, I'm not too sure on the formula – I'd have to do some research on that – and with my current lack of time, I wouldn't have it for you any time soon, maybe Higgo knows.

Dools · 03/01/2015 at 15:47

Nice work my Sea Lake SC amigo,
Having returned from my escape up north avoiding the festivities I returned New Years Eve to Point Cook driving through the township of Sea Lake….What a gem of a town as to why it's called Sea Lake well that's a puzzle for me as is NVB.
I like the coin v points generated even if's it's just 60 odd, however given the position and even cheaper options I can not see he him in the starting line up for "The Team With No Name"
Then again he does represent value under-priced but a trade in waiting me thinks whereas Wells is the pick for me instead of NVB
Today , I need to report that the fridge is coping magnificently the Beer is cold the heat is nice and the thirst generated is being satisfied, thanks for your concern INP we are all good here. Has anyone heard from my toilet loitering friend (a joke from previous posts in Dusty Martin review) Wombats?? I'm sure he has a Carlton player in mind instead of Wells or NVB!
Great statage and frank appraisal Dex, He is a "No!' from me 02/98 (The 02 figure represents a miniscule change of mind)
The mercury has hit 39 C so I need to check on the fridge and its contents
"To the fridge!!"

    I N Pieman · 03/01/2015 at 16:10

    Great to hear you & fridge are well. Esky & I have been at the beach many times so far this summer & we will be down there again a bit later. It's like a sandy Tinder. You raise a good point, where is wombat. Maybe someone finally ran him over. Never thought I'd hear you knock back a VB Dools!

      Dools · 03/01/2015 at 17:16

      Hahahahha Never ever knock back a beer. Unless you are drinking it mate.
      Then its Vagina Backwash. VB my Pie friendly friend…. Sandy Tinder all looks good until your in the sand trap my man LOL

        I N Pieman · 03/01/2015 at 18:55

        Ah sand traps. Had many hitlers in my golfing days. 2 shots in the bunker! That’s an interesting version of a VB! Send some of that to Chicko. He’s a little starved of attention lol

          Dools · 03/01/2015 at 19:55

          Dear Chicko ,
          I have been informed that you are running a bit skinny.
          Me I firmly deny any entrapment on my part…How are you?

taylorwoof · 03/01/2015 at 19:25

100% Agree Dex, 75 Ave TOPS for NVB.

Was looking into him the other day. Even if you take his Ave V Opp and Last 3 Ave V Opp, he still only comes out with an average of 76.4 and 76.8 for the first 10 rounds of 2015.

I have been thinking maybe 215K for him is a shade too expensive……Yes, i may sound crazy….or rather spoilt from last year with the likes of Dom Tyson and Jared Polec. In saying that, he's sitting in my side as M7…but i'm hoping a much cheaper rookie reveals themselves and i can turf him.

Tyson was 216K averaged 95 pre bye.
Polec was 172K averaged 97 pre bye.
Aish was 187K averaged 72 pre bye.
Langdon was 117K averaged 80 pre bye.
Dunston was 132K averaged 78 pre bye.

    NumbatsFC · 03/01/2015 at 19:53

    I agree 100% Taylorwoof. NVB is fools gold.

General Soreness · 03/01/2015 at 19:38

Great write up Dex, I don’t expect he will start in my side I will go rook instead and pocket the change for upgrading later.

Jezzalenko · 03/01/2015 at 19:43

If it’s anything like other seasons there will be at least 15 season ending injuries before round one so if everyone else goes down he might get a gig in my side.

NumbatsFC · 03/01/2015 at 19:52

Hi Dexter.
I agree that a proven player (a captain no less) at sub 220k is hard to pass up but the Bulldogs lost half their midfield and Biggs is going to tear it apart for the 5-weeks that it takes other clubs take to realise that he's a gun.
IMO even Diesel Cripps will appreciate in value more than NVB

Watto · 04/01/2015 at 00:15

I have been considering NVB as a lock, purely because he is the captain of the club and should play if not injured. Other rookies at a similar price can be unpredictable with their playing time or being the sub. With NVB at least we know what to expect. When I found out he was 215k, that was cheap enough for an experienced player like he is.

Cozza · 05/01/2015 at 11:08

Great write up Dex. The thing that will possibly get NVB over the line for me is his JS. The concern with the rookies each year is that we never really know at the start of the year who is going to get game time – there is always an element of risk with a lot of them and often corrective trades shortly follow. NVB should give us some safety there – although he is unlikely to increase in value as much as some of the rookies, I am thinking about picking him as a "safe" option (barring injuries) to earn me some cash.

Inside50m Footy · 05/01/2015 at 14:21

Dex, great work, but if one is to put NVB on SC bench, why not pick young Billy Hartung instead? BH seems to be poised to blossom in 2015?

WombatsFC · 07/01/2015 at 12:42

Thanks Dex that 200k to 250k midfield market is packed with value buys. Sadly like most other markets its controlled by the big 2 and some of the meat has had sulphur added to make it look fresh and some of the peaches are actually lemons. Identifying the lemons in peach skin before you get them to the checkout is a valuable supercoach skill and so is finding the peach in the box of lemons.

NVB comes from a more mature market with reliable produce. Coming in second in the first time trial after a snapped Achilles suggests that he will be back to pre injury form immediately.
Must be considered at his price as he wont be subbed or awestruck.

Tom · 07/01/2015 at 22:02

Running his 2013 numbers with a $215k starting price results in him topping out at $338k after 7 games (although he hits $354k after 15 games but you shouldn't still have him by that point). If your aim is to make money quickly then $123k from 7 games probably isn't enough, especially factoring in he'll be almost 29 by the start of the season and coming off an Achilles tear.

    General Soreness · 21/01/2015 at 14:19

    Brilliant Tom, exactly why I am not an NVB advocate, poor ceiling too.

Ryan · 21/01/2015 at 12:42

For what it's worth. His new coach has said he won't be a tagging player this upcoming season.

    General Soreness · 21/01/2015 at 14:20

    He says that now, but………. when the Sh1t hits the proverbial fan he will go back to NVB. First year coaches try things then waiver quicker than most.

Comments are closed.