Backlines will be tough this season – is Shaw a LOCK?

General Soreness

Since 2006 Heath Shaw has averaged more Supercoach points than any other permanent defender in the competition.  An exceptional stat and one that should have us locking him into D1 every single year, but we often don’t, which begs the question why?

I think there are a couple of factors at play here.

  1. He usually starts over $500K and us Supercoachers usually like to spend a little less in the back line.
  2. He has not played a full season since 2007 usually providing 18-19 games.

Two very crucial factors, but for mine, he falls foul of my no d-heads policy.  His missed games in a number of seasons have not been through injury but rather from being a larrikin who finds himself in hot water more often that he would have liked.  In 2008 he was three times over the legal alcohol limit when he crashed his car six days before the next game, then proceeded to lie about who he was with (Didak) in a press conference and was subsequently suspended by the club for the rest of the season.

He played every eligible game in 2011 after the club banned him for 14 matches with 6 suspended which saw him miss the remainder of the 2011 home and away series.  It was really lucky that those 6 were suspended so he could return to play in the final series before losing to the Cats in the Grand Final.

LOCKED IN YOUR 2015 JOCK REYNOLDS FANTASY FOOTY MAGAZINE? CLICK HERE NOW

I have vivid memories of 2011 as Shaw had pumped out a low score or two in a row a few weeks earlier followed by a couple of 100+ scores, but his price had dipped and I was upgrading to a premo defender.  At approximately 4pm on the Friday before the round 17 match I traded in Heath Shaw.  Somewhere between 5pm and 6pm on that same date, Collingwood banned him for the rest of the home and away season.

Those of you that are newer to Supercoach are well aware of the rolling lockout and reverse trades.  In 2011 there was no such thing as reverse trades; accordingly in 2011 my Heath Shaw move had just caused me to waste a trade.  In 2012 the reverse trades were introduced and I started referring to Heath Shaw as R U as in R U Shaw?

I thank him to this day for being a d-head and giving birth to the reverse trades button.  Buckley was less forgiving which saw R U traded to the Giants in 2013.  The Giants untroubled by his prior transgressions made him vice captain and part of the leadership group.

So what will 2015 bring?

2015 Price: $497,800
2015 Position: DEF
Games last season: 18
Average last season: 92.6
100+ games last season: 7
Sub 80 games last season: 4
Price range last season: $437K – $522K
Missed games last season: 4
Significant history: 4th in Giants B&F 2014Highest Supercoach average of any permanent defender since 2006Has not average less than 90.2 since 2006Father Son selection at pick 482003 National Draft2 times Rose – Sutton medallistMichael Tuck medallist

Anzac Day medallist 2007, Gavin Brown Award 2006

His average of 92.6 from 18 in 2014 was a solid return from a defender and whilst we would prefer 22 games if we remove his injury affected 24 against the Swans his average improves to a 96.6 from 17.

In 2015 we will see the return of a fitter Phil Davis, the introduction of Joel Patfull and Caleb Marchbank all as defenders and with Ryan Griffen added to the middle I can see R U returning to average at least 95+ and possibly 100+.  I expect to see more of R U with some run and carry off half back out of defensive 50 by linking with quality mids and solid defenders.

RISK FACTOR

The major risk here is that he gets on the grog during the season and goes for a spin then lies about it.  The second risk but less major is that he is getting on and may miss a few with niggles.  The upside is he generally only misses one here (except in 2014 when he copped a knee to the face) and therefore he is usually much easier to find coverage for.

SELECTION PURPOSE

Select as a premo defender to provide a minimum of 90+ average over at least 18 games.  But I expect will go higher in 2015 on both games and SC average which is more a gut feel than knowledge and facts.

THE GOOD

  • Can pump out some 120-130+ scores
  • Will average above 90
  • Reliable defender who will play
  • Gave birth to reverse trades (all hail R U)

THE DOWNSIDE

  • Plays at GWS
  • Will throw in a stinker or two (34 v Rich and 65 v StK in 2014)
  • Will be 30 in November 2015

THE VERDICT

This year there appears that there may be a dearth of choice in the defensive line.  Further those considering a 7/3 type structure will need one or two solid defenders to Shaw up the backline.  Of those competing for premo defender spots many are expected to lose DPP and become mid only, leaving a choice between Shaw, Hibberd, Jacksch, Dal Santo to name a few.  I have to tell you at just a smidge over $500K or less I am tempted to say yes as a starter or as an upgrade target but am struggling with the fact he has burnt me before (2011) and my no d-heads policy.  So I am left upon the fence in a Supercoach conundrum –

I AM NOT SHAW – R U ?

What’s your call on the R U in 2015?

General Soreness

Twitter: @GenSorenessSC

 

 BECOME A JOCK MEMBER – EXTENDED LENGTH MONTHLY PODCASTS

AFL Supercoach Legend Jock ReynoldsThis article has been penned by an elite Supercoach analyst hand picked from the talent pool of the Jock Reynolds Fantasy Footy Community. He has stood up within our community as a man of fantasy substance, and has displayed the spirit of togetherness, positivity and community that we value significantly.


13 Comments

Bog rat · 29/12/2014 at 12:06

Nice write up General,
Until I see Malcheski have a run with the Suns, It's out of Shaw & Simpson for me as my premo starter in defence I think they're about the only 2 players to consistently average around 90 the past couple of years & then Watters because of his price if he's fit & starts round 1 then the rest rookies, at this stage try & play it safe & sit back & wait to see who breaks out.

    General Soreness · 29/12/2014 at 17:33

    Malceski an unknown upgrade target for me Shaw and either Smith or Hibberd to join him.

    General Soreness · 29/12/2014 at 17:34

    Like the thinking Bog rat, I’m following similar lines.

jockreynolds · 29/12/2014 at 15:07

Lovely General. As it stands Shaw will lead my defence out onto the field in season 2015

    General Soreness · 29/12/2014 at 17:31

    Cheers Jock I reckon I’m leaning the same way.

Phil · 29/12/2014 at 17:38

Shaw and Simpson for me too if I can fit 2 premiums in. Can't ignore there history (90+ last 7 years) Agree with you that you need 2 solid defenders if going 7-3 structure. Great write up.

lostlarrikin · 29/12/2014 at 22:53

Killed it GS, you done sold me.
Those def prems got me beat, Heater firmed as D1 for me today.
All hail RT inauguration day!

throttlefinger · 29/12/2014 at 23:11

Banger of a review, General. On the fence about the Heater. Strong arguments either way. Just need to play it by ear. Leaning towards values and consistency on the def front. Hmmmmm. Much to consider. Well done, my friend.

I N Pieman · 30/12/2014 at 01:25

Ripper general. He’s in my team at the moment. With such a lack of premium defenders available he’s very relevant. Hope he doesn’t do anymore late night driving!

@Ageneral3 · 30/12/2014 at 04:59

General, liked your straight to the point delivery – keep up the good work, could you provide similar for those diamonds in the rough that we all seek. As for Shaw, being in the GWS leadership may be the deciding 'Yes' for inclusion in 2015.

    General Soreness · 30/12/2014 at 07:33

    Cheers Ageneral3, few def diamonds, INP had a glance at Skittles Viojo Rainbow, obviously Waters, but we will see what we can do.

Dools · 30/12/2014 at 10:13

Top Stuff General, top shelf!
Burn me once shame on you burn me twice it hurts a lot more I'm sitting on the fence mate lets see what he does pre season
30/70 for me . great review mate thanks

WombatsFC · 07/01/2015 at 13:14

Outstanding work General fantastic analysis of the things that matter. You have scratched Shaw off the Possible Wombats defender list for 2015. Thank you.

Comments are closed.