TG Footy Tracgic - Dexter

Well, 2014 was wasted! Will 2015 bode well for Wells?

Drafted at pick #2 in 2002, expectation has always been high for Daniel Wells. He made his debut in 2003, receiving a Rising Star nomination and the AFLPA Best First Year Player awards. He continued freakish form in 2004, kicking the goal of the year. He has some freakish talent, but injury and inconsistency have stunted his rise into Supercoach Elitehood.

Wells has had a few awards fall his way, but in Supercoach Terms – he has been… Ok. Over the years he has shown glimpses of awesome, with a few scores above 150, but not on a consistent scale. His best run was from rounds 10-16 of 2012 (including a bye), where he strung together 6 tons at an average of 115.7. He’s strung together 4 or more consecutive tons 5 times in his career, and only gone 1 season where he has averaged more than 100 (104 in 2011).

By the time the 2015 season starts, he’ll be 30. The question is; is Daniel Wells relevant as a Supercoach option?

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2015 Price: $361,400
2015 Position: MID
Games last season: 7
Average last season: 74.7
100+ games last season: 2
Sub 80 games last season: 5
Price range last season: $420K-$580K
Missed games last season: 15; RD 6-20 (Foot), 22 (Suspension)
Significant history: Averaged over 94 four times in last 8 yearsTwice missed two thirds of a season due to injurySuspended for 1 match in 2014, (two offences with Higgins)2003 Rising Star Nominee2003 AFLPA Best First Year Player

2004 AFL Goal of the Year

North Melbourne B&F 2011, 2013

Drafted #2 in the 2002 National Draft

One of the greatest things about Wells is he doesn’t need a lot of the pill to get a high score. Since 2012, Wells has had 20 tons – 14 of them from 25 touches or lower. This is helped by the fact his average disposal efficiency levels since 2012 have been 74%, 72% & 74%. He also favors kicking over handballs, generally having a 65-35 K-H ratio.

If we omit the injury marred 2014 and look at his 2012 & 2013 seasons; Daniel Wells isn’t a bad selection.

In 2013, he was starting sub once (no reason given – it was sandwiched between 5 tons though). He scored 12 tons and 5 sub 80 scores (including the sub score) – for a high of 125, and a low of 68 (excluding the sub score). If we omit the sub affected score, he averaged 99.3 (instead of 96.1), and 99.4 in wins (excluding sub score) & 99.3 in losses – Almost identical.

In 2012, he was subbed out once (no reason given) and suffered a season ending calf injury in the first quarter of round 20. His average for the year including these scores was 99. Take these two out and it rises to 105. He scored 8 tons and 4 sub 80 scores (2 of which were injury and sub affected), with a high of 143, and excluding the sub/injury scores a low of 79. These are NOT mid-pricer numbers.

What will North Melbourne’s team-dynamic be in 2015? Will Daniel still be a vital midfield cog? Will he play a more quarterback HBF role? Will he be more a winger/forward flanker? These are all questions that (hopefully) the pre-season should answer.

Now, the biggest sticking point with Wells is his injury history. Other than 2013, he hasn’t gone a full season since 2006. His first 4 years, he missed 5 games. His next 8 years, he’s missed 46 games (excluding finals). If he can put his injury history behind him, I think he can be a valid mid-price option in 2015.

RISK FACTORS

Has a pretty long injury history.

SELECTION PURPOSE

I only really see Wells as a midfield mid-price option. Start him in the hope of appreciating 100-150k and dump for a fallen premium.

THE GOOD

  • Elite efficiency
  • Doesn’t need a lot of the ball to ton up
  • 20 tons in last 46 games, for a 360k option – that’s pretty darn good! (confirmed price $361,400)
  • Priced to average 60.

THE DOWNSIDE

 

  • Prone to injury
  • Over 30
  • Unknown team structure for 2015

THE VERDICT

Picking up Wells really depends on your structure. I believe, with the right planning, you can squeeze him in for that one mid-priced MID – depending on preseason and injuries and all that jazz that comes with it.

Some aren’t considering a mid-pricer in the midfield, and I’m not really one for it – but don’t think of him as a mid-pricer, more a low-end premium at a cheap price. If he averages 95 in the first 5-7 weeks, he’ll jump in value around 100k and if a premo spuds it up early, he can be that stepping stone to one of them.

At this moment, assuming his pre-season is fine; his starting price is just too bloody cheap to pass up!  Welcome to SoapOnARope Daniel-san!

YES

What are your thoughts?

Am I on the money or madder than Mick?

Dexter

Twitter: @TG_Footy_Tragic

 

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22 Comments

throttlefinger · 24/12/2014 at 08:43

Wow. Really considered Wells a roller coaster ride selection. Yet as you expertly state Dex, if he hits 95 (which is totally doable given others in NTH mid will get more attention) he'll be a fast lane to a Premo.

Wasn't considering before. He's very much in the mix if I choose a fallen prem dominated structure. Kudos on another excellent review.

    @TG_Footy_Tragic · 24/12/2014 at 12:35

    Yeah mate, I wasn't really considering him, then delved deep into the stats…

    Needless to say, he's featured heavily in a few of my team builds…

    Cheers Throtts!

Dools · 24/12/2014 at 09:39

That was an excellent piece Dex
Given the recent changes to N. Melb. line up he is very, very attractive. if he can emulate Nick Del Santos start to last year "We" are on a winner. I say we cause ATM he is in the starting line up so I can afford a semi permanent Fwd. line and keepers down the backline with his inclusion.
Priced at 70's he is a bargain priced at 60's that is bargain basement selling at a loss all stock must go stuff – Not much of a gamble really – Just need a Team Name
"To the fridge!!" to celebrate a Lock , Cheers Dex

    @TG_Footy_Tragic · 24/12/2014 at 12:36

    Cheers Dools!

    So many people will overlook DWells, but the keen eye will see a bargain.

    He's very close to a lock for me to Doolsey

I N Pieman · 24/12/2014 at 10:22

Another pearler Dex. A quick pump & dump is exactly what you would do with him. But Norf's early draw: away to Crows Home to Brizzy who could be anything is then followed by Port Cats then Hawks has me a little concerned. If I end up needing a midpriced in the Mids he will be very high on the shopping list. Nicely done again Dex. Hope you have a great Xmas.

    @TG_Footy_Tragic · 24/12/2014 at 12:37

    Cheers INP, You have yourself a merry one as well!

    Same to the rest of this fine community!

    I'm not worried too much about the draw – I'm more thinking, if he's on the park rd 1, he's in!

Kev · 24/12/2014 at 11:02

A better option than NVB for mine. I was looking over some of his numbers the other day and there is a massive gap between his good and bad scores. Wells' average in wins/loss stands out as a safer mid price option. Even if he doesn't go bang and pump out regular 100's I can see his price lifting to 450-470k by the byes.

I probably won't run with him as I'm pretty sold on Rich right now, but a good POD selection nonetheless.

Brilliant work, Dex

    @TG_Footy_Tragic · 24/12/2014 at 12:39

    Cheers Kev!

    Agree, it'll be out of Rich and Wells really.

    A coach with a higher testicular fortitude would run both…

Jimmy · 24/12/2014 at 12:36

Wells or Rich. At the moment I have Rich but I'm really considering Wells.

    @TG_Footy_Tragic · 24/12/2014 at 12:44

    Yeah Jimmy…

    To Rich or Wells… That is the question!

David Johnson · 24/12/2014 at 13:00

Tempting, but there's no way I could justify a sacred MID spot for someone that's (a) NOT going to average enough to be a keeper, or (b) NOT going to increase enough in price to justify a trade.

Seriously, if he's only gonna increase $100k, what's the point? Might as well get another decent rookie to get you the cash. Stepping stones in the midfield always end in disaster (think Brent Moloney, Dale Thomas, etc.).

jockreynolds · 24/12/2014 at 14:09

Goodness me – he will tempt me this year as well Dex – thanks for another great article. Could be a candidate for a head lop pre bye time perhaps. Like you say – doesn't need much pill

Phil · 24/12/2014 at 16:45

Quality quality piece. Love it when you guys throw up a guy I hadn't considered and sell him like that.

It's true North have a hard early draw, but that awesome little stat you through in where he averaged identical in wins and losses makes this less of a concern.

Has he been confirmed at 361k? I'll have to check the Higginator, if so that's very tempting. Rich vs Wells, I'd probably go for Wells.

lostlarrikin · 24/12/2014 at 18:11

Legendary as always Dex.
Very tempting but that injury history makes me twitchy. Tbh I’m leaning toward Rich and some low end mid pricers like VB and Lucas. Will see what nab throws up re norf structures.

Leighroy · 24/12/2014 at 20:53

Great write up dex as always merry Christmas community 🙂

@lewiswgrant · 25/12/2014 at 19:47

Rich for me at the moment but only just….I like wells tho and may have the high testicular fortitude to run with both.

Rosco · 27/12/2014 at 18:18

Great minds think alike Dex. I had him in my preliminary side before your AWESOME article. At $361K for what he can do he seems a no brainer. When I saw his price I had to put him in. I also have Daniel Rich as a mid-pricer which has me running 4 premo's, 3 mid-pricers and 4 rookies at this very early stage.

Brett · 28/12/2014 at 14:39

I have him in my midfield with a view of using him as a stepping stone. I think he is a very good chance to quickly appreciate 100K+ while Rocky and Gaj are very likely to drop to low-mid $600's.

    THE SALTSHAKER · 29/12/2014 at 11:13

    Well GAJ is known to start seasons on fire, but at that price its natural to think he will drop? many have thought so and said the same thing since my 2nd yr of SC and its never happened because he isnt defined by the same natural rules of mortal men. He is a freak. If youre hoping to save $100k and jump on at the bye rounds or just before then you may still need 2 cow trades to get him into your team. So thats $50k a trade (from your saving $100k) is that the best way to use your trades when 2 cows can get you $150k each? Far better to back him to avg 120+ and lock for the year. Only way you can really max on a price drop is if you run a rookie instead and keep the $$ difference in a war chest so that for 1 trade you get rookies $150k and the GAJ drop $100k. How strong is your nerve when you see others in your league getting 2x 160 or 2×180 capt GAJ scores, your reaction will be to pull that trade move before you fall too far behind…

    THE SALTSHAKER · 29/12/2014 at 11:24

    In 2013 when Rocky was playing pure mid he avg 127ppg in 2014 he played fulltime avg 132. If you look at games where he had 47d and 14tackles its superhuman in offensive and defensive application. The 2 most prolific mids of last 5yrs Swan and GAJ avg around 32d or greater and their tackling avgs are 4.0 or less/there abouts. Rockliff avg 33d for year and roughly 9.0 tackles a game. Id suggest locking both him and GAJ and be safe in the knowledge if anything goes pear shaped then youre in the same boat as the majority of supercoaches

THE SALTSHAKER · 29/12/2014 at 10:51

Fell into the midprice trap before. Youre better off getting a rookie who will make that $150 – $200k quicker. Priced to avg 60 if he returns an 80avg its a much slower $$ generation, other supercoachers will be upgrading their teams faster than you. The only way might be viable is if he is a keeper for that position. If he was a defender or fwd then a return of 90 would be a no brainer, as a mid is 90 enough by the end of the year as your M8? No. So you will need a trade – A comparison to last year would be D. Thomas vs J.Mcrae (in the $300 to $350k range) by the bye rounds Thomas cost you, languishing in your mid with scores of 60 to 70 as there were at least 5 other rookie mids avg that or higher (so you get quick cash and same score output) – McRae avg 130 over his first 4 games and maintained 100+ avg to byes and indeed for season. The signs in NAB though were diff, Daisy trying to build nothing flash, McRae avg 30disp 120-130ppg — if Wells or Rich show similiar signs early take a punt, if not you might be better with a purer GnR strat

Jaydos · 29/12/2014 at 17:17

To go with Rich or Wells, your Dan'd if you do and your Dan'd if you don't (terrible.) I have Wells above Rich, I have since supercoach opened and when I scrolled through those 425-325k mid priced options. Daniel Wells was the first one that stood out to me. I had him in my first team which was the 6th post in the My SC team v1 on this site.

Daniel Rich has an excellent kick, no doubting that but he'll be the maybe 5th best midfielder at Brisbane? He's coming off an acl injury and he's never averaged over 91. Besides last year Wells has averaged over 95 the past 3 seasons. All we need is for Wells is average 92-97 for the first 8 weeks and he'll rise about 90k-100k in price. He's the perfect stepping stone and he'll hopefully peak around the bye period. He's a lock in my team.

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