Supercoach 2015 – Daniel Wells
Well, 2014 was wasted! Will 2015 bode well for Wells?
Drafted at pick #2 in 2002, expectation has always been high for Daniel Wells. He made his debut in 2003, receiving a Rising Star nomination and the AFLPA Best First Year Player awards. He continued freakish form in 2004, kicking the goal of the year. He has some freakish talent, but injury and inconsistency have stunted his rise into Supercoach Elitehood.
Wells has had a few awards fall his way, but in Supercoach Terms – he has been… Ok. Over the years he has shown glimpses of awesome, with a few scores above 150, but not on a consistent scale. His best run was from rounds 10-16 of 2012 (including a bye), where he strung together 6 tons at an average of 115.7. He’s strung together 4 or more consecutive tons 5 times in his career, and only gone 1 season where he has averaged more than 100 (104 in 2011).
By the time the 2015 season starts, he’ll be 30. The question is; is Daniel Wells relevant as a Supercoach option?
|Games last season:||7|
|Average last season:||74.7|
|100+ games last season:||2|
|Sub 80 games last season:||5|
|Price range last season:||$420K-$580K|
|Missed games last season:||15; RD 6-20 (Foot), 22 (Suspension)|
|Significant history:||Averaged over 94 four times in last 8 yearsTwice missed two thirds of a season due to injurySuspended for 1 match in 2014, (two offences with Higgins)2003 Rising Star Nominee2003 AFLPA Best First Year Player
2004 AFL Goal of the Year
North Melbourne B&F 2011, 2013
Drafted #2 in the 2002 National Draft
One of the greatest things about Wells is he doesn’t need a lot of the pill to get a high score. Since 2012, Wells has had 20 tons – 14 of them from 25 touches or lower. This is helped by the fact his average disposal efficiency levels since 2012 have been 74%, 72% & 74%. He also favors kicking over handballs, generally having a 65-35 K-H ratio.
If we omit the injury marred 2014 and look at his 2012 & 2013 seasons; Daniel Wells isn’t a bad selection.
In 2013, he was starting sub once (no reason given – it was sandwiched between 5 tons though). He scored 12 tons and 5 sub 80 scores (including the sub score) – for a high of 125, and a low of 68 (excluding the sub score). If we omit the sub affected score, he averaged 99.3 (instead of 96.1), and 99.4 in wins (excluding sub score) & 99.3 in losses – Almost identical.
In 2012, he was subbed out once (no reason given) and suffered a season ending calf injury in the first quarter of round 20. His average for the year including these scores was 99. Take these two out and it rises to 105. He scored 8 tons and 4 sub 80 scores (2 of which were injury and sub affected), with a high of 143, and excluding the sub/injury scores a low of 79. These are NOT mid-pricer numbers.
What will North Melbourne’s team-dynamic be in 2015? Will Daniel still be a vital midfield cog? Will he play a more quarterback HBF role? Will he be more a winger/forward flanker? These are all questions that (hopefully) the pre-season should answer.
Now, the biggest sticking point with Wells is his injury history. Other than 2013, he hasn’t gone a full season since 2006. His first 4 years, he missed 5 games. His next 8 years, he’s missed 46 games (excluding finals). If he can put his injury history behind him, I think he can be a valid mid-price option in 2015.
Has a pretty long injury history.
I only really see Wells as a midfield mid-price option. Start him in the hope of appreciating 100-150k and dump for a fallen premium.
- Elite efficiency
- Doesn’t need a lot of the ball to ton up
- 20 tons in last 46 games, for a 360k option – that’s pretty darn good! (confirmed price $361,400)
- Priced to average 60.
- Prone to injury
- Over 30
- Unknown team structure for 2015
Picking up Wells really depends on your structure. I believe, with the right planning, you can squeeze him in for that one mid-priced MID – depending on preseason and injuries and all that jazz that comes with it.
Some aren’t considering a mid-pricer in the midfield, and I’m not really one for it – but don’t think of him as a mid-pricer, more a low-end premium at a cheap price. If he averages 95 in the first 5-7 weeks, he’ll jump in value around 100k and if a premo spuds it up early, he can be that stepping stone to one of them.
At this moment, assuming his pre-season is fine; his starting price is just too bloody cheap to pass up! Welcome to SoapOnARope Daniel-san!
What are your thoughts?
Am I on the money or madder than Mick?
|This article has been penned by an elite Supercoach analyst hand picked from the talent pool of the Jock Reynolds Fantasy Footy Community. He has stood up within our community as a man of fantasy substance, and has displayed the spirit of togetherness, positivity and community that we value significantly.|