An ACL injury saw 2014 go to rags; will 2015 bring Daniel riches?
Brisbane struck it rich in 2008, selecting Daniel Rich with pick #7. His AFL debut came in RD 1 2009, where he knocked out a respectable 84 SC from 21 touches, 4 marks and 4 tackles – earning him the first AFL Rising Star nomination. His 2009 season turned out to be an absolute belter in which he won the Rising Star award unanimously and also took home the Best First Year Player award. Surprisingly, his debut year yielded his equal best in terms of SC tons – knocking out 7, which was matched in 2012.
2014 saw change to the Brisbane Lions; new coach Justin Leppitsch moved Rich to the half-back line and it turned out to prove successful in the NAB Cup. He started the 2014 season playing from half-back and in the first game vs Hawthorn; he knocked out a 79 from 19 touches (0 tackles, 2 Frees against & 3 Clangers took the sheen off). The second game of the year against Geelong proved a better result, tearing out a 104 from 20 touches & 5 tackles in a more handball (and contested possession) heavy game.
The unthinkable happened in round 3. In a little over a quarter, Rich was tearing along on 60 SC from 8 touches and 3 Rebound 50’s when his ACL went snap and so did his 2014 season. I think Leppitsch was onto a winner with Rich playing the half-back line. Put Hanley on the other flank, insert Beams, Rockliff, Redden & Aish in the guts, Christensen and Zorko on the forward flanks and BAM what an Engine Room!
One thing I’m quietly optimistic about – DPP for Rich! DPP is seriously an option, considering he played his whole 2014 season off the back flank (all 2½ games) – I wonder how Champion Data consider it. Do they go from their last season or from the last 22 games? If it’s solely off their last season; DPP is extremely likely. I expect it’s different though.
|2015 Price:||$348,300 (injury discounted)|
|Games last season:||3|
|Average last season:||81|
|100+ games last season:||1|
|Sub 80 games last season:||2 (1 was on track for a big ton, but injury hit)|
|Price range last season:||$448K – $463k|
|Missed games last season:||19; (ACL in RD3)|
|Significant history:||Averaged 85.9 in 2013
Averaged 90.8 in 2012
Suspended for 2 games for rough conduct in 2012
AFL Rising Star 2009
Best First Year Player 2009
Drafted at pick 7 in the 2008 National draft.
As I stated above regarding his defense move, his stats clearly indicate a move to the rear half of the ground. In 2012, he averaged a healthy 4.9 inside 50s and 1.6 rebound 50s. In 2013 he averaged 5.0 inside 50s and 1.5 rebound 50s. Fast forward to 2014; he averaged 0.7 inside 50s compared to 3.0 rebound 50s. Yes, he only played 3 games, but it was becoming evident – Leppitsch wanted Rich to play there and will more than likely return there in 2015 when you consider the midfield talent that has found its way into the Lions outfit.
Also, all reports are indicating a return to full contact training is imminent and Rich has had no hiccups, is hitting his return indicators on schedule and is eyeing a round 1 start – which is a big tick.
We all know contested possessions, efficiency and tackling give SC scoring a significant boost and over the past 3 years Rich has upped his contested possession averages. 45.2% of his possessions in 2012 were contested, 49.2% in 2013 and 61.8% in 2014 (only 3 games were played in 2014). His efficiency has been Elite, going at 67% in 2012, and 73% in 2013 & 2014. He has also averaged 2.9 tackles a game since 2012. For how contested his game is, he only averages 2.2 clangers a game – majestic!
From 39 games since 2012, Rich has gone sub 80 13 times. Of those 13, his ACL in RD3 of 2014 was one. In 2013 he was tagged 3 times – Lower RD1 (61), Wright RD2 (77) & Jones RD19 (96). He was also tagged twice in 2012 – Shiels RD12 (75) & Jones RD16 (83). Look at the talent in the midfield and flanks that the lions possess and think; will opposition teams tag Rich on his return? Doubtful. Hanley, Rockliff and Beams are all more damaging and “fitter”. Therefore he’s got a lesser chance to be tagged and a higher chance to go over 80.
Returning from ACL injury. Re-injury risk.
Mid-pricer – pick him with the hope to step up to fallen premium or cash in for a bubble boy.
Pick him from round 1 or corrective round 3.
- Contested beast. 52% of possessions since 2012 have been contested.
- Efficient. Going at 71% efficiency since 2012.
- Team of talent, eyes won’t be fixed on him – should fly under radar. Less tag risk.
- Priced to average 64.8. I see a 90-95 average possible if fit.
- Price. Mid-price trap?
- Returning from injury. Could re-injure or not return to his best.
- Lions still a developing side, only averages 80.9 in losses compared to 96.7 in wins.
This is a hard one. Daniel Rich has shown he can score (Top 5 scores: 149, 145, 138, 134 & 132). The bad thing about his highs is only his 145 was recent, which was in 2012. He has also shown he can dud (Lowest 5 scores: 28, 28, 32, 42 & 44). The good thing about his dud scores is the 44 was in 2012, and the rest were pre-2012.
I’m going to put it on the line and say this; if you are looking to put as many ultra-premium players in your team, then you’ll need a Rich-like player to bridge the gap.
I am looking at Waters, Rich and other injury-returnees in the hope they hold out – so I can bank on the ultra-premiums in GAJ and Pendles et-al and at 350k (confirmed price $348,300), Rich can provide some serious value.
At this stage, Rich has a nice spot in my midfield – if he does get DPP, he’ll be a nice slot in defense.
Welcome to Soap-On-A-Rope Daniel Rich.
Is my head Rich with wisdom? Or has it gone to rags? Love to hear from you.
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