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Supercoach 2015 – Charlie Dixon

Published by Jock on

Can he rise from the grave to feature in 2015?

TG Footy Tracgic - DexterIt was mid-2013; I remember listening in to the community podcast and our father Jock Reynolds broke the news that Charlie Dixon had passed away. It was a sad day. Fast forward a year and it seemed as though he was still suffering the side-effects of his reported demise.

Charlie Dixon has been dubbed a few names in his time in the game – “Burnman” & “Weekend at Bernie’s” (I’m still yet to see that movie) being the most common. It’s safe to say that Charlie has dangled the carrot in front of many of us, only to yank it back and see us fall in the trap he has set.

2015 sees Charlie enter his 5th season at a prime 24 years of age. It’s safe to say though; he’s anything but “prime” – in terms of his body. In his first year, he played only 10 games, mostly form and fitness got in his way. From 2012 to 2014, “Burnman” Dixon missed 27 games – that is over a bloody season of games missed from injury. Not just one recurring injury mind you, he’s had: Ankle, Cheekbone, Concussion, Adductor, Calf, Thigh and Quad injuries…

Let’s strip all that back and delve into the nitty-gritty to work out “if” he is to get over his injury woes – is he worth a punt?

2015 Price: $363,600
2015 Position: FWD
Games last season: 14
Average last season: 67.6
100+ games last season: 2
Sub 80 games last season: 8
Price range last season: $323K – $487K
Missed games last season: 8; RD 3-6 (adductor), 19/20 (Thigh/Ankle), 22/23 (Quad)
Significant history: Averaged 90.5 in 2013
Hasn’t played more than 14 games in a season yet (Debut in 2011)

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Charlie Dixon has been played predominately as a key forward / backup ruckman role, although for a few games in 2012, he was tried as a key defender. His numbers in 2014 suggest he played 3 of his 14 games with significant ruck time, but most of the time as a KPF. There’s also the real possibility of retaining the DPP RUCK/FWD link.

If the start of the 2013 season is anything to go on – Dixon has the potential to BEAST out. All reports suggest he had a full pre-season and started 2013 fit and firing. Leading up to his ankle injury in round 6; his 5 games yielded 4 tons and a 77 from 2 and a half quarters to average 115. Tasty!

As mentioned above, Dixon has missed a staggering 27 games from a possible 66, that’s a shade over 40% of his time has been spent on the sidelines. Another thing to take note of; 8 of the games he has played have been cut short because of injury. His season SC averages from 2012 have gone; 73.5, 90.5 & 67.6 SC points. For potential sake; let’s take out his injury affected games from each year and look at his averages, they’d read; 76.5, 97.6 & 88.1 SC points.

As you can see, 2014 was heavily impacted by injury. RD 1 saw him concussed, RD 2 he did his adductor, RD 16 a calf, RD 18 Thigh and RD 21 Quad.

Have a look at this table to see his breakdowns:

Image 1

Another thing of note, 2015 sees massive change on the Gold Coast. McKenna lost his job because MaCaffer stuffed Ablett’s shoulder, which paved the way for Rocket Eade to make his mark on the Suns. Add an injury free (touch wood) pre-season to Dixon, and another year into the kids & his potential to go large – 2015 COULD be a significant one for Dixon.

RISK FACTORS

Could go all shambling corpse and break apart on the field.
New coach marks an unknown factor – Could Dixon go key defender?

SELECTION PURPOSE

This is a tough one. His price is a little tricky – I’d say (if he’s fit) he’d be a starter or round 3 corrective with the aim to jump to an under-preforming premium or make cash bringing in a bubble boy.

THE GOOD

  • Of his fit games, he has gone 100+ in 30% of his games and 80+ in 61%.
  • 69% DE average since 2012 is a good thing to have, and only averages 1.8 clangers a game!
  • Spends time in ruck, averaging 7.7 hitouts a game since 2012.
  • 67% of his disposals are contested. With an average 3.3 contested marks a game since 2012.

THE DOWNSIDE

  • Injuries. Missed 27 out of a possible 66 games due to injury.
  • KPF.

THE VERDICT

Charlie “Weekend at Bernie’s” Dixon, providing the GCS can pull off a miracle and revive him with no injuries attached; might be a valid option. I see a fit Dixon averaging around 90-95, so at that price – he’s a steal, especially “if” he manages DPP. Admittedly, you’d need some serious testicular fortitude to select him.

I think you need to really watch him over the preseason to see if he’s over the injuries. He’s not an out and out no from me, but he’s definitely not a yes.

If you are happy with his preseason and think he can start strong, go for it. But I seriously worry about his durability.

For me though. It’s a no at this stage.

No

What do you reckon folks? Am I on the money or bonkers? I’d love to hear from you.

Dexter

Twitter: @TG_Footy_Tragic

 

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AFL Supercoach Legend Jock ReynoldsThis article has been penned by an elite Supercoach analyst hand picked from the talent pool of the Jock Reynolds Fantasy Footy Community. He has stood up within our community as a man of fantasy substance, and has displayed the spirit of togetherness, positivity and community that we value significantly.


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throttlefinger

That price is especially delicious when you consider he retains DPP status. And maybe this is the year, like Sandi last, he goes injury free. Still a HUGE gamble. Especially when you consider the Suns have a lot of SC relevant players striving for points. How much will be available for WAB? If he's DPP, I'm around 70/30. If not, 30/70. Fantastic piece, Dex!

Itchy Nuts Pieman

Throts your considering dancing with death. Ballsy. A 70/30 with DPP wow!

throttlefinger

Not to be bleak but death is all around us, Pieman. Perhaps Dixon has spent the last two season trying to master the afterlife. This season may be the year he puts into practice his learnings. He seems not to fear death…but to dance with death. Perhaps he unleashes an SC tango for the ages.

Itchy Nuts Pieman

Throts are you suggesting this is this is the year of complete resurection for Charlie. Where he may perform such miricales as throwing his arms wide apart & parting open a Foward line. And not creating the "corridor of uncertainty" but a "corridor where hells defenders simply can not tread". And thus having the avenue to goal all to himself. If he proves that ability i'll personally tow the MCG to the Gold Coast & he'll be in everyones team in round 2.

Kev

Throwing his arms wide apart could result in a double shoulder reconstruction…

Itchy Nuts Pieman

True Kev that's almost a certainty.

throttlefinger

Now that would be worth the trip to Oz to see!

@TG_Footy_Tragic

Cheers Throtts.

I'm more a 10/90, even with DPP.. His injury history is just far too risky.
Considering I'm running Waters and a few other risky picks, i can't pick him!
possible corrective, most likely a pass.

Dools

Waters if he gets through pre season is I think a solid KPF for 3 to 5 rounds to start and see where you go from there . He finished well last year … How much does he cost ?? Dex

@TG_Footy_Tragic

Hey Dools, I wrote an article on Beau Waters a few weeks back – hope it answers your questions.

I can't post the link, I'm assuming for those spam comments (nice work there jock!)

Just go to the 2015 player index and he'll be there somewhere.

Dools

Ah I thought you was specking of Mick Waters (Freo) not Beau (WCE) my bag bro!

@TG_Footy_Tragic

Hey Dools, i wrote an article on Beau Waters a few weeks back – hope it answers your questions.
http://www.jockreynolds.com.au/2014/11/02/superco

@TG_Footy_Tragic

Hey Dools, I did a write up a few weeks ago.
Here's the link.
http://www.jockreynolds.com.au/2014/11/02/superco

Itchy Nuts Pieman

As Mr Burns says "Exxxcelent" Dex. I am very impressed by the set of injuries he's had. Never the same thing twice in a row. Most players have one or two constant problems. He has a problem with everything. Death will do that to you though. I don't think I could contemplate him as a starter. Corrective rnd 3 at best & still very unlikely. I think Mitch Clarke has that spot for my team. Keep it up Dex great piece.

@TG_Footy_Tragic

Cheers INP!
Mitch Clarke is much higher on my radar also.

Those limbs are far too likely to fall off to put the ol' nads on the line for mine.

General Soreness

Absolute belter Dex a truck load of work has gone into those stats Kudos to you. A definite no from me. Zombies have no place in a SuperCoach team and if Shaun and Ed turn up throwing records at him, he is likely to lose a limb and be out of action whilst he is embalmed. His price is teasing but I have fallen into these traps before, the only way he could squeeze in is if he is monstering the start of the season and I can make a corrective to get the coin before he expires. Again Dex splendid analysis.

@TG_Footy_Tragic

Cheers General.

I always sift through the stats. I must… MUST know the ins and outs of every player I select and analyse…

Maybe that's my OCD or Savant nature coming out… I need to know everything before I commit!

Kev

Awesome, Dex. The stat man inside me loves you number heavy reviews. No doubting his potential but until WAB can put together an injury free season I won't be considering him

@TG_Footy_Tragic

Cheers Kev.

Injury is a massive risk!

WombatsFC

Spot on Dexter. He's the Gold Coasts Jarrad Waite, capable of monster scores but just as likely to miss 10 games.
If I've got a spare $360k in my pocket and he has a uninterrupted preseason I probably still wouldn't start him.

General Soreness

One of the most amazing things to come out of this article is the fact that Dex has not seen Weekend at Bernies!

Itchy Nuts Pieman

Next he will be saying he hasn’t seen Fellis Buelers day off general. Still we won’t trade him. His research & article content is first class.

Chicko

Next Dex will be saying he hasn’t seen Coming To America – confirm or deny Dex?!!

@TG_Footy_Tragic

Haha haven't seen any of those films :

Dools

Great stuff Dex,
Lazarus with a triple bypass and most likely to pop a valve just getting on to the park! However If DPP and around the coin you suggest he is a possible after showing me a solid pre season on the dance floor. (hopefuly he completes the "Monster Mash" unscathed)
Dead men don't dance – Maybe the reports on his demise have been a little over inflated.
He is no Greg "Bloody, I'm so dead cold, I have been mistaken as a meat locker" Boughton!!
He is not high on the RADAR but if he can insist that their is life in 'em ol' bones and the embalmer is convinced 'we have a live one here' I may just enslave the Living Dead.
And may God have Mercy on his soul if he stinks it up as I'm an unforgiving man and I won't.
10/90 No at this stage. Great review Dex, thanks. Now "to the fridge!!" to create a dread spell so binding that Beelzebub will feel obliged to me and so will "Weekend at Bernies"

Itchy Nuts Pieman

My favorite TV show Dools should have Charlie as a lead character. The Walking Dead. He’s credentialed to the eyeballs for a lead role to depose Rick or Daryl. The show is all about the carnage “the walking dead” can inflict. There are great parallels between Chatrlie & TWD. It screams of do you pick a zombie or a man with a significant firearm.

Dools

Hey INP
Glorious reply But you neglected the cunning "Voodoo Majic" That I will do later on tonight . All the SC Gods are welcome, However I'm expecting some resistance from my electronic partners , but I have a sneaky plan!
I'm going out the back tonight with out the computer and I'm burning a 2014 footy card, a GCS doll and a wee lock of me own hair ….The plan is to physically add to his mobility, sarcasm and of course animate the Dead Thing to encourage more young men to dance, Yes it's dangerous The CFA may turn up, I'm oping that; My spell can wake the young fella up (PS if he plays like me he is a lock!!) backing that up if he has my attitude him Gonnnnnnnnnnnnne!
Delicate stuff this… He is my Hannibal ( Not Lecter) The one I wanted to win lol

Itchy Nuts Pieman

I hope Daniiel Kerr isn’t at your place tonight. Or it will be the CFA SES & many other emergency services trying to put out the flames of this ghastly yet fascinating experiment. Send me a highlights package. Sounds SC worthy to the max!

Seaford Scouse

Think I highlighted ‘the reanimated one” as worthy of consideration in an early review for another of the Suns but that was before I’d done any kind of research whatsoever and whilst his price may be tempting your excellent piece highlights the key reason why he shouldn’t be considered, he’s more injury prone than a base jumper without a parachute!

The gold coast are clearlyt going to be extremely relevant this year for SC but Charlie hasn’t made my WL and after your stunning stats here highlighting just how risky he is I’ve put a line right through him. Had him in 13 and he did ok before falling apart, considered last year but thankfully steered clear and whilst there may be an argument at the price and with DPP I just think there’s much better options in the forward line than him this year. Mitch clark clearly being the standout if you want to take a punt. I’d even go with Jesse Hogan (who hasn’t even managed a game yet) over him or even Paddy Mc at the saints (and he’s still a no!) A resolute no from me.

And Jock, are you out at your Christmas party mate, sounds like one too many tinnies to me 🙂

Seaford Scouse

Sharing the giddiness with you there Jock! Can’t wait for the new prices and positions to come out not to mention that beast of a tool known as the Higgonator!!! I’ve noticed he hasn’t been very active on the boards so I can only surmise you’ve got him burning the midnight oil on some nice enhancements to it, wonder if he’s going to give us a skull and crossbones warning flag next to players who you need copious amounts of testicular fortitude to include such as our friend Charlie 🙂 you’re right though of course if he can replicate that kind of form for a whole season he would certainly give you incredible value, it’s just that it’s such a big if and I’ll be looking for calmer seas in my 2015 SC galleon as it sets sail in its search of fantasy booty!

@TG_Footy_Tragic

Cheers SS!
He's a polarizing one ol' Bernie….

Canny the Manny

Great write up Dex, what a good read it was.

I’m not one for midpriced players let alone midpriced ruckman! But I feel if we are to achieve the gameplan of an almost full premium midfield to start with, then picking both Dixon and Kreuzer in the ruck stocks may be a necessity. Just something to think about before you immediately dismiss this unforgiving, injury prone, supercoach nightmare. Also, with his dual position eligibility as Throtts pointed out, there’s more upside than what initially meets the eye.

@TG_Footy_Tragic

Cheers Canny!

Rucks are too bloody rich for value this year. definitely not a 1M spend in the ruck this year. Bernie would be a quick-fire stepstone if anything!

Chicko

Awesome work Dex, I appreciate a beautiful mind like yours and your savant persona with stats. I had Bernie Dixon in a few of my draft teams last year. Thank buggery I changed that and slotted in Luke Parker instead! Dixon is awkwardly priced for mine. I don’t see him as a keeper as I doubt he will finish in the too 6-8 FWDS, as such you would need to use him as a stepping stone, thus I think there are better options elsewhere in terms of cash generation ability. Great write up mate!

@TG_Footy_Tragic

Cheers Chicko!

I'm keen on his pre-season… I want to see that reanimated body in action!

Dools

I'm working on it Dex, Give the spell a chance to get up to Queensland mate . It's got to travel 2000 KMs, avoid the weather and be powerful enough to re – animate the dude..

lostlarrikin

Solid Dex.
If he has a rockin pre season and comes out blazing I might consider a correction.
Take out those 8 injury affected games at sub 80 and the avg looks pretty reasonable.
Fragility scares us all but from what I have seen Cam McCarthy will be able to pick up where his brother Andrew left off and do a fine job at helping prop up the walking dead once the cameras are rolling.