Micky the Mad Irishman said it first; Kreuzer is a lock for 2015.

LekdogI agreed, in fact I was praying that Kreuzer didn’t get back on the park last year just so his 2015 starting prize would be unavoidably low.

Kreuzer was going to be the Jock Reynolds Community pick of the year this year, we could have taken the Supercoach world by storm and no one would have been able to stop us…that was until good old Mick Malthouse opened his gob and announced to the world that Kreuzer was here to play.

Micks not so secret boom recruit, could have been pick of the year but Malthouse has been parading around Lygon Street trumpeting the Kreuzer name for all to hear. And the Supercoach public has heard him loud and clear; expect Kreuzer to be in everyone’s team in round one.

The bloke hasn’t run in November during his senior footy career…ever, until this year at least. He’s out on the training track for pre-season for the first time in his seven-year career and from all reports is tearing it up.

Quite frankly it’s about time.

2015 Price: $370,900
2015 Position: RUCK
Games last season: 1
Average last season: 69
100+ games last season: 0
Sub 80 games last season: 1
Price range last season: $527,900K
Missed games last season: Every game after RD1
Significant history: High scores of 145, 144 and 140
Number one draft pick

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As a Carlton fan I am finally as excited about this kid as I was back when I watched the Blues “not tank” the Kreuzer-Cup. As a Supercoach fanatic I am frothing at the thought of this bloke being in my team, he has scorned me in the past but not this year and here’s why. Kreuzer has finally got some feeling back into that gimp foot of his. It’s like Footloose all over again and he’s Kevin Bacon saving the day.

He’s going to be cheap and I mean really cheap, we are talking sub-400k. This can’t be ignored. On top of his price Kreuzer never leaves the ground, averaging around 90% Time On Ground for his career. This year will be no different. Mick has said he’ll be spending time up forward, now he isn’t a goal scorer so we can assume he’ll just be resting up forward between ruck stints and if he can kick a few that’s just the cherry on top that we need.

The Numbers

As Kreuzer essentially didn’t play last year it’s hard to appropriately discuss his potential output. Instead of hypothesizing about what he could average in 2015 I’m going to crack open the footy records and have a look at his past stats in great detail.

I’m going to basically ignore Kreuzer’s first four years in the system, during which his highest yearly average was 82, and focus on his last three years. During his last three years (including a solitary injury affected game in 2014) Kreuzer has played 38 games for the Blues. Amongst those 38 games Kreuzer has registered at least 25 hitouts in 17 games (close enough to 50% in my mind), in those 17 games Kreuzer has averaged a very impressive 108.5 Supercoach points with high scores of 140, 139 and 136. Now to go into even more depth if we remove the games in which players like Shaun Hampson scrubbed it up and shared the ruck role with Kreuzer his average jumps to a delicious 113 Supercoach points.

In the other 21 games since the start of the 2012 season where Kreuzer has had less than 25 hitouts he averaged a respectable 82 (including several injury/sub affected scores) and his possession count and goal count increased. During these games Kreuzer has registered high scores of 125, 116 and 113

This means that as the solo ruck in games where Carlton aren’t getting smashed Kreuzer averages 113 points, when sharing ruck duties he averages 108.5 points. Now clearly he is capable of some poor scores but he is also capable of some big scores. After finally getting a pre-season into him I think that he will have a solo ruck role for most of the season with Cameron Wood chipping in here and there, I do not think that Warnock will get a look in despite Malthouse once saying he was the best tap ruckman in the game.

Shared Ruck since 2012
● Average with <24 H/O = 82
● Average 25> H/O * = 108.5
Solo Ruck since 2012
● Average with 25> H/O = 113

Risk Factor

The risks for Kreuzer are obvious, he’s injury prone and he might spend some ineffective time in the forward line. I honestly think he’s finally over his injury and should spend the majority of his game time around the ground as a solo ruckman.

Selection Purpose

Lock him in and forget about him for 11 weeks. By then he’ll either have given us a 110 average and be a keeper or he’ll average around 90 and have appreciated enough value for an upgrade at the byes.

The Good

  • He just got married so he won’t be out and about all night, his Mrs will have him home early and well rested
  • Too cheap to ignore
  • Solid scorer (90’s plus)
  • Micks love child
  • Doesn’t tweet about the team
  • Should be main ruckman for 2015
  • Won’t be off the ground at any stage

The Downside

  • Injury prone (appears to be past that)
  • Carlton don’t seem to be too fantasy relevant
  • In his contract year
  • Might spend a few ineffective quarters in the forward line

The Verdict

Lock him in. At his price, even his lowest averaging period since 2012 (82) is enough to appreciate value. More than that I think the big boy is finally over his injuries and could easily have a 105 average. I have to say it again, lock him in.

YES

He’s already in my team; let me know what you guys think.

Lekdog

Twitter: @LekBlog

 

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56 Comments

WombatsFC · 03/12/2014 at 03:01

Dear Lekdog,
I admire your passion for the most successful VFL/AFL Club in the history of the world and, I understand how hard it is to see the road ahead when you have navy blue lenses in your eyes.
But I offer you this advice.
Look at the recent history of great Carlton Rucks, John Nicholls, Mike Fitzpatrick, Justin Madden and then ask yourself whether or not you think Kruez will be remembered at Prince's Park in 20 Years.

Who is that enemy of (Wom)Batman that wears a green leotard with a black? on the front

It's a riddle to me how not trying to win could be interpreted as trying to lose. Equally riddle-some is why a club would speculate on a teenage 'could be' when they already had more sauce than the average pie or burger can handle.

Spectacularly Riddle-some is how anybody could suggest that Kruez is good SC value for 2015.
He acquires new injuries faster St Vincents emergency after a soccer game, he's now too short, underpowered and slow to be a dominant ruckman and Levi makes him look like Cinderella when it comes to forward marking contests.

If he's named for rnd 1 and less than 200k a definite lock for me. Remember that Kruezers price will also incur a ruck trade before round 5

    Lekdog · 03/12/2014 at 10:13

    G'day mate, I reckon he'll be around 270k an if he makes it through his first preseason scathe-free that'll be enough for me, As for our history at the time we had Sauce Jacobs and Shaun Hampson in the ruck, both are gone and one we suffered horribly for losing. This is why Kreuz will perform, karma is on our side.

Chicko · 03/12/2014 at 05:24

Lekdog opens up and goes bang! Magnificent first up article mate. You make a compelling case for Kruze. If he is around the $350k mark then I I think you are right in that he becomes very difficult to ignore. He is in my draft team for sure. Top work Lek!

    @LekBlog · 03/12/2014 at 10:50

    Agreed Chicko

@daveywarhol · 03/12/2014 at 05:48

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| | | |
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///`.::::.`\
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LOCK

    @LekBlog · 03/12/2014 at 10:51

    Locked him in too

Barwick's Soilders · 03/12/2014 at 07:30

Lekdog, great first article. I do disagree with that estimated price though, I think he will defiantly be under 300k and that just makes him a huge lock. If he was aound that 370k mark I would probarly not touch him.

    Lekdog · 03/12/2014 at 10:07

    Yeah mate upon reflection it'll be more like 270k one would imagine

Itchy Nuts Pieman · 03/12/2014 at 07:44

Lek it's just awesome to have you on board. Love the first article & certain to cause much debate. For mine I'm agreeing with the "marsupial mad man" here. I see lot's of people talking about the value of a Nic Nat Kruezer combo. But if you think your getting 22 games & a 110+ av out of them your as mad as a cut wombat. I think you can go with 1. But not both. You would certainly need some quality coverage for them if you do. There is certainly a lot of logic going for Kruz, but his history is pretty shonky. Something to think about in the value section, but far from a certainty at this point. Keep up the good work my man.

    Lekdog · 03/12/2014 at 10:20

    Yeah I totally get that, to be honest I always play too risky with my ruckmen and this year will be no different haha. Though I don't trust nicnat personally I just feel like this will be a career year for big Kreuz

      Itchy Nuts Pieman · 03/12/2014 at 12:32

      Fair call Lek. At 300k it’s going to be tough to pass up. See if he’s standing up in preseason. The POD with Kruz will be not having him.

jockreynolds · 03/12/2014 at 08:14

Lekdog. I'm emotional writing this – I'm proud as punch to see this your very first step out into the spotlight for your community. This is simple for me – if he gets through the preseason unscathed he will be one of the first locked into JR Brumby FC, especially if – as is being suggested – he comes in lower that that $370K mark.

Gobsmacking first article Lek – sensational to have you onboard.

    Lekdog · 03/12/2014 at 10:08

    Yeah mate tack 100k off that price

      Lekdog · 03/12/2014 at 10:13

      And thanks for the love old Jock

throttlefinger · 03/12/2014 at 08:28

Fantastic review, Lekdog! Way to come out of the gate guns blazing. As the others said above, you've made an excellent case for the kid if he's under $350K and looks ready to lock horns in preseason. Agree with Womby that he'll be a means to a Goldstein rather than be a keeper like Sandi (even though I traded him, many did not). Ripper of an article!

    Lekdog · 03/12/2014 at 10:17

    Yeah i'm not blind to see that he won't be a keeper. Annoyingly has the round 11 bye which is qhere i'd aim to hold him until. Thanks for the kind words TF

Seaford Scouse · 03/12/2014 at 09:21

Awesome write-up Lekdog. The married so the missus will have him home early doors was hilarious mate. I’m much more wary of NicNats hammy than Krueger so likely to be going with him from the off as the risky ruck. Depending on my testicular fortitude and pre-season i may drop NN in as well. I didn’t think I’d go with 2 risks in the ruck but the temptation on loading up with mid premos could prove too tempting and I’m a sucker for anything shiny and as we all know the mids is where the SC gold is so I may be onto a losing battle with myself there.

    Lekdog · 03/12/2014 at 10:18

    Greed-Factor is real, both nicnat and kreuz would be bold. I'm not a nicnat man myself so at this stage kreuz is for me but who knows wha could happen from here.

Big_BenFC · 03/12/2014 at 09:28

good write up Lekdog, He is close to a sure thing in my team

Big_BenFC · 03/12/2014 at 09:29

The only thing greater than that article is the slug nestled there on your top lip.

    Lekdog · 03/12/2014 at 10:18

    Thanks mate, comments like that keep me going

Tman · 03/12/2014 at 10:41

Great review Lekdog. A definite lock for me if he gets through pre season injury free.

With the spending spree on the guts, there is no way my team can ignore a well priced ruck option. Though I dont discount the possibility or should i say probability that he will breakdown and eat up a trade.

    @LekBlog · 03/12/2014 at 19:42

    Rucks will be a good place to save this year and maybe the forward line with the likes of Saad and Karneizis (however that flog spells it). I like Kreuzer just as much as I like Luey up at Brisbane with the difference that Kreuz should be the solo ruck whereas Luey will be competing with Martin.

General Soreness · 03/12/2014 at 10:43

Great review Lekdog, or should I say young Errol Flynn going by the avatar. Kruez should follow Justin Madden into politics, not since Star Wars Ep 1 has one promised sooooo much but delivered sooooo little. Perhaps its that weight of expectation that has caused all of his injuries. Whilst I am not adverse to risk on the ruck line, hell I ran with Mummy and Sandi starting duo no coverage in 2014, unless I can get him onto my ruck bench his brittleness will probably consign him to the scrap heap and I will seek out a POD option who is likely to pump out 22 games.

    @LekBlog · 03/12/2014 at 10:55

    I think I used 5 trades on Ruckmen last year so I hear you GS. As of right now though Kreuz is certain to start next year in Lekdog's Puppies

Tman · 03/12/2014 at 10:45

Thats magnificient for first up effort. Keep up the good work LekD.

    @LekBlog · 03/12/2014 at 10:55

    Thanks Tman

@TG_Footy_Tragic · 03/12/2014 at 10:47

Lek old mate, fantastic debut!

I'm pretty sure I tweeted a few months back that I (may) have unlocked the secret to injury discounts, if so, he'll be around 297k.

Sub 300k for Kreuz and a full – injury free – pre-season = LOCK!

There's almost a sense of Sandi-2014 about the value.
I'll be chuffed to smack him in there a good half year (if the injury plague is indeed behind him!)

We all erred on Sandi and he proved his big ol' turf toe was a thing of the past – maybe it's Kreuz's go?

Ripper piece Lek, and welcome aboard!

    @LekBlog · 03/12/2014 at 10:54

    Yeah I used the non-injury formula hence the confusion. I think he's more likely to have sandi value than the dreaded McIntosh value myself. Only time will tell.

      JVN · 03/12/2014 at 13:42

      I have a gut feeling that if they use the same sorts of formulas as the past few years that he could be closer to 260k 😉

Kev · 03/12/2014 at 13:24

Stellar review, LekDog. I'm firmly in the camp of wanting to have a look at him first. Honestly I've never been all that impressed with Kruze and returns of 20 something hit outs per game is not enough to compare him to the risk that was a discounted Sandi.

That said, exactly the type of player that is needed if one is stocking up on midfield talent.

Will appear plenty of times in the Higgonator but he's far from guaranteed.

    @LekBlog · 03/12/2014 at 19:38

    He's not gonna get 60 hitouts but history shows if he can get in the mid-twenties he's a good enough user to score highly. I'll wait and see with every player that goes in my team but I love a cheap risky ruck.

Dools · 03/12/2014 at 15:15

Solid review Lekdog,
He was a target for me this year and his price has started me salivating $270K is a bargain of epic proportions!
$370 K is still a great bargain for an Avg return 80- 90 ….. Kaaaaaaachinnngggggggg !!!
He is my 1st lock in the Ruc Dept. Not a keeper but a cash cow unless he dominates (Keyboard , Next G device are laughing at that )
Now Liam McBean come to the party and be a Ruc FWD?????
Thanks for the review, and analysis Lekdog.
"To the fridge!!" Here to many more articles mate.
Cheers

    Itchy Nuts Pieman · 03/12/2014 at 19:02

    Dools I think a few of us have been tracking Liam Mrbean. Lost his ruck status this year but averaged 2.5 sausage rolls a game. Surely next year he gets a crack. Cheap FWD bench option for sure. To the bar at the tennis club to chat up some MILFs

    @LekBlog · 03/12/2014 at 19:35

    He'll be around 270k I stuffed up the formula mate, I love the prospect of him just gotta wait and see now.
    Liam McBean has been a floater on my bench for a while, gotta compete with Maric and Hampson. Could be the Currie of this year.
    Thanks for reading

Barwick's Soilders · 03/12/2014 at 17:47

With both Kreuzer and leunberger probarly going to be both under 300k or around that (Leunberger I think will be around 305k), that is going to be very tempting and hard to turn down.

    Barwick's Soilders · 03/12/2014 at 18:06

    Scratch that 305k, I got confused, that is my preditcted price for Tom.Bellchamers, 288k for the big lion

      @LekBlog · 03/12/2014 at 19:31

      Yeah Luey is interesting, him and Martin will surely have lower output next to eachother?

        Itchy Nuts Pieman · 03/12/2014 at 21:00

        Who saw what Stefan Martin delivered coming. Does prove it takes time for the big blokes quite some time to develope. They will take points off eachother. Where does it leave west. The Brissy boys are really a tough proposition

          @LekBlog · 04/12/2014 at 14:02

          Yeah I was lucky, got on Martin after his first ton last season and held him for the rest of the year, ended up saving me a donut a few times in the fwd line. With Brisbane's pickups this off season they should be an alright side next year but some potential supercoach scoring has been compromised. Rich could provide some value at least.

Phil · 03/12/2014 at 21:09

Great article first up Lekdog and I agree, I love a good cheap ruckman too. Kreuzer if 270k and Leuy if 288k both locks for me. (barring injury) Before you guys call me crazy for picking 2 injury prone ruckmen, I'm hoping Bellchambers is R/F again and there's a nice cheap R/F rookie.

    @LekBlog · 04/12/2014 at 14:03

    We have to save money somewhere don't we Phil!?

crackman · 03/12/2014 at 21:42

it all depends on where Carlton play him. if playing ruck in the nab lock and throw away the key. If Mick just plays him forward in the nab it may be a good POD to not get him

    @LekBlog · 04/12/2014 at 14:07

    Yeah a solid point and I agree, fwd line sets off alarm bells but I'm hoping with the pickups of Jaksch, Jones as well as signing Matthew Dick coupled with Matthew Watson potentially playing in the fwd line (much to my disgust) it forces Kreuz to be played in the middle of the ground.

lostlarrikin · 03/12/2014 at 23:05

Great work Lekdog, nice detail on the shared role stuff.
Sub $300K is a big Lock for me.
A massive saving to bolster other lines and at that price he won't take long to appreciate significantly

    @LekBlog · 04/12/2014 at 14:09

    Thanks Larrikin, the shared ruck stats took a while but I think the added some nice depth to the article rather than me talking complete shit. Yeah rucks and forwards are where we're going to save money this year with the likes of Luey, Kreuzer, Saad and Clarke. Helps make up for the expensive first round rookies and highly priced premiums.

MASO · 04/12/2014 at 05:49

Bang on LEK, lock for me if fit and raring to go surely we can get 1/2 season before he breaks down again 🙂

    @LekBlog · 04/12/2014 at 14:10

    That's all we ask, only annoying thing is his bye is round 11 so anyone we replace him with will have a week off in round 12 or 13.

Brett · 04/12/2014 at 19:02

Locked but pending absolutely no pre-season hiccups
his SC scores between rd's 9 and 18 tell me that he is capable of elite output – his average was 116 . These games were after coming back from an early season injury before being injured again in rd 19.
In 2013 he averaged 98 – this included 4 sub 80 scores : 35 (injured), 42 (Sub?), 72 (injured) & 68 in last game of season after missing since rd 19 – not sure if he was subbed or not

Ruck strategy will be interesting this year, several under priced rucks capable of scoring well – hoping we get at least one decent ruck/fwd option

    Brett · 04/12/2014 at 19:04

    sorry scores were in 2013

      @LekBlog · 04/12/2014 at 21:18

      Yeah I went over all of his career games, some of 2013 was Ruck 1 stuff it's just the preseason he needs to impress us in. If the body is able he will do big things for us. Thanks for reading mate.

nathan · 04/12/2014 at 21:14

Its the same as sandi last year

A lot of people are going to put a line threw him but pick him up a few weeks later when his b/e is -100

    @LekBlog · 04/12/2014 at 21:19

    Hopefully he's a Sandi and not a McIntosh mate haha

    WombatsFC · 04/12/2014 at 22:06

    Exactly right Nathan every year is just another groundhog day.
    Start with him and hope he scores well or don't start with him and hope he scores so well well that you can downgrade a lesser scoring premo to a high yielding rookie and a dud rookie to the comeback bloke before the price change.

Kent Price · 07/12/2014 at 18:19

Great article Lekdog!

Looking forward to your next one!

Go blues!

    @LekBlog · 07/12/2014 at 18:22

    Thanks mate love your work

Comments are closed.