Cos he’s a… 21st Century Fox

Supercoach author LostlarrikinThere’s been a gentle breeze blowing at Arden St this year. So faint that no one really noticed it. By sheer happen-stance, newly demoted to the mail room, young Trent Dumont uncovered the source of this zephyr while sorting through JB’s hate mail down in the dungeon.

A strategically placed listening device picked up some of the ensuing chatter:

“Hey Boss, there’s a window been left open downstairs in the mail room, I think you need to have a look” prompted Dumont.

“Open windows!” shrieked JB, “We’ll see about that!”

Upon further investigation, JB was gob-smacked.

“Holy marauding macropods Batman, that’s the Premiership Window! When the hell did that open up?”

“Quick, jam it open with something before it slams shut!”

As luck would have it, a couple of sizeable limbs had just fallen off the Free Agency tree, so Messrs Waite and Higgins were quickly shoved into place to keep the breeze blowing.

Unfortunately, amid the confusion, a young sapling by the name of Greenwood, slipped out the back door (man) for a greener pasture.

“Has anyone seen that Greenwood kid?” quizzed Chris Scott’s brother.

“It would appear he made a break for it while that whole window fiasco was going on” piped Dumont.

“Oh well, no matter, we’ve got the Century Fox.” Scott reassured.

“He can fill that Levi hole, he’s not bad at that footy stuff.”

The Doors of Opportunity have well and truly swung open for Ben Cunnington with the departure of Levi Greenwood. As Mr. Morrison so eerily prophesised, “Got the world, locked up inside a plastic box”. If we just substitute the word “world” for the word “future” and the words “plastic box” for the words “Scotts’ coaching”, and you have a very spooky fore-telling.

2015 Price: $497,200
2015 Position: MID
Games last season: 22
Average last season: 92.5
100+ games last season: 7
Sub 80 games last season: 7
Price range last season: $427K – $520K
Missed games last season: 0
Significant history: 10th overall for total tackles (1st at the club)
11th overall for total cont. possessions (1st at the club)
5th overall for total clearances (1st at the club)
Kangas Best and Fairest winner
Drafted at Pick #5 in the 2009 National Draft

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Well this kid obviously has the goods, so what’s up with the 92 SC average?

The Century Fox was tracking quite nicely in recent history with his 2011 – 2013 SC average spread looking like this: 53 / 77 / 95. However, The Fox hit a roadblock in 2014 and his SC average went south. So can this blip in the radar be explained or has The Fox been shown the way to the next Whiskey Bar?

In a nut shell, 2014 was a tale of two halves for The Fox.

Rounds 1 – 12 – avg 97

Rounds 13 – 23 – avg 87

The emergence of Greenwood and the return of Capt Swallow mid-year, resulted in more forward time for The Fox in the second half of 2014. The Fox still had a reasonable finish to the season, but his goal square cameos were not enough to make up for the drop in contested possessions and clearances. Another telling statistic is the free kick differential across the season. The Fox had a free kick ratio of 8:28 across the entire 2014 fixture, which is a fairly ugly showing in anyone’s books. However, after round 12 you’d think this kid had just glassed your girlfriend in a bar fight, as the umps threw the book, the gavel and even the judge at him. The last 11 rounds saw The Fox earn one solitary free kick whilst giving away 14! Supercoach Kryptonite!

Despite the Jekyll and Hyde season, one must bear in mind the arrival at the jump of 2014 of one Nick Dal Santo. NDS dived head first into the Kangas engine room from round 1 and capped a fine season with 24.7 disposals and an SC average of 102.9. With mid talent to burn, NDS was well supported by Boomer and Gibson whom both took their share of the spoils. In the wash-up, The Fox certainly didn’t do himself any favours with his oft handball happy style (5 out of 7 sub 80 scores featured handball dominance) and an erratic DE of 68%.

RISK FACTOR

Primary risk sits with role clarity (or lack thereof) for this kid. A mid field spot is there for the taking but he will need to compete with the likes of Ziebell, Bastinac and Turner for a shot at the golden ticket.

SELECTION PURPOSE

In snaring The Fox on the ground floor you are doing so in the faith that he will jump straight into Levi’s shoes and resume his SC upward trajectory to the 100+ domain.

THE GOOD

  • Durable (played 49 of last 51 games)
  • Young body amongst an aging midfield
  • Friendly round 13 bye

THE DOWNSIDE

  • Could continue to play forward
  • Fair amount of coin for a speculative pick
  • Can board the train to irrelevance when he chooses hand over foot

THE VERDICT

The Century Fox won’t suit everyone’s palette with a sizable risk based on his 2014 form. Many will be eying of Capt Swallow for a similar price and who could blame them. As a top five pick, I have a bit of a soft spot for The Fox but can’t quite bring myself to lock him in at this stage. An early correction perhaps.

40/60 for a spot at the Knights round table.

So can The Fox Break on Through or is this The End?

Lostlarrikin

Twitter: @lostlarrikin

 

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29 Comments

Barwick's Soilders · 30/11/2014 at 00:46

Great one Lost! I nearly locked him in last year before I moved him out with 5 minutes before opening game. I agree with corrective at best, on my watchlist but towards the bottom of it.

    lostlarrikin · 30/11/2014 at 10:55

    Thanks BS, yeah had him in and out many times in lead up to lock out this yr.
    Thankfully I pulled the pin too.

throttlefinger · 30/11/2014 at 03:03

Ripper, Losty! Had him high on my list for 2014 but didn't look that formidable preseason so held off. Glad I did. Agree 100% with your final analysis. Definite wait'n'see consideration. Can't see him being anything more than a corrective. Be interesting to see if his play picks up and the 100-year Fox can deliver on the expectations.

    lostlarrikin · 30/11/2014 at 11:00

    Cheers Throts. yeah if he can retain a fulltime gig on the inside and stay on the right side of the law then he should rise further.
    Will be interesting to see how they play Boomer next yr. Reckon he's the only think standing in the way of The Fox becoming elite.

Yadman · 30/11/2014 at 06:52

Knock out review Losty! With Greenwood out and Waite in young Cunnington’s SC scores will be back where they should be.

It will just be the coin that will stop most fr picking him up in the first instance but for me it will be money well spent. Lock him in!

    jockreynolds · 30/11/2014 at 09:21

    Ballsy Yads! Love it mate

    lostlarrikin · 30/11/2014 at 11:03

    Thanks Yadman, welcome on board!
    The Fox will be a great POD for you no doubt.
    Wheel barrow job for you mate.

Itchy Nuts Pieman · 30/11/2014 at 08:38

Very entertaining Losty. Loved it. You’d need some sort of certainty of a 100+ average to pick a guy at 500k. Don’t think he can give me the certainty required to take him. POD pick that’s for sure. Probably not for mine. But a quality job nonetheless Losty.

    lostlarrikin · 30/11/2014 at 16:21

    Thanks INP, yeah no cert to crack triple figures.
    He really needs regularly pump out 25+ disp/game but he wasn't even managing this half the time in the first 11 games.

jockreynolds · 30/11/2014 at 09:21

Love your work Lost. Would have a serous think if he was around your $420K mate – but not enough certainty there for me at $500K

    lostlarrikin · 30/11/2014 at 16:26

    Thankyou Sire. mmm…at $420K I'd be all over him quicker than you can say "Wear the Fox Hat"

Dools · 30/11/2014 at 09:22

Well that was entertaining Lost
I watched games he played in last year, he was disappointing as I marked him up for 2014 season , only to see him stumble, I don't think he will stumble this season, I will be watching his pre season and position very closely.
He is hitting prime time re his age and coming into his 6th season (Hopefully he is not a character in Game of Thrones!!!)
So still plenty of upside but the coin. That's the killer in this
Thanks for the Sunday morning laughs Lost

    lostlarrikin · 30/11/2014 at 16:39

    Pleasure my Fridge-o-matic friend.
    Yep looks like I've slotted in as a Sunday regular.
    Anything to put a smile on a hangover…

      Itchy Nuts Pieman · 30/11/2014 at 18:57

      Hair of the Dools doesn’t have hangovers, he goes straight back the scene of the crime “to the fridge”.

        Dools · 30/11/2014 at 19:25

        G'day INP
        Never had a hang over – They sound horrendous
        Is it anything like SC withdrawal ??

          Itchy Nuts Pieman · 30/11/2014 at 19:42

          Nothing compares to SC withdrawals Dools. A simple swim in the bay will cure a hangover. But I don’t swim for 6 months. In fact I rarely swim at all. In fact I can’t swim unless I’m clinging to a fishing esky. When that happens SC withdrawals are a thing of the past

@TG_Footy_Tragic · 30/11/2014 at 12:04

Divine storytelling my friend!
I bloody loved the read, a no for mine – corrective at best.
I'm firming for Swallow or Wells over the fox.

Majestic write-up Lost. Take a bow.

    lostlarrikin · 30/11/2014 at 16:41

    Too kind Dex, Cheers.
    Yes the final number on Wells' head will be tantalising no doubt.

Phil · 30/11/2014 at 12:17

Great review….The kanga's are an interesting one in 2015. As pointed out in this article, the premiership window is open, which should allow them to have a bigger slice from the SC pie.
Between ''the fox" Swallow, Wells and Ziebell, they have 4 quality players similarly priced. Surely if North are top 4 at least one of these guys goes 110+ making them underpriced. My safe money would be on Swallow.

    lostlarrikin · 30/11/2014 at 16:44

    Cheers Phil, yeah wins will be critical for The Fox.
    Significantly, he did not ton up once in a loss this year.

General Soreness · 30/11/2014 at 20:54

Ripping write up Losty, love the Doors references. Too much uncertainty at the price, not a keeper or upgrade target so a firm no from me.

Chicko · 01/12/2014 at 11:29

Great work Losty! I'm with the General here. Too much coin for too much uncertainty. Also a no for mine. Love the nickname of The Fox, but he can stay in the woods with Goldilocks.

    lostlarrikin · 02/12/2014 at 00:20

    Ty GS and Chicko.

WombatsFC · 01/12/2014 at 20:20

Nice little bedtime story you've written here Losty and it correctly identifies prosperity via cunnington as a fairytale.
Much more of a Rabbit than a Fox but both are despicable ferals so it doesn't really matter.

In his 5th year he was given more opportunity than he deserved and he failed to deliver in monumental fashion. The whole club grimaced when the penny finally dropped at Arden St and they realised that they had yet another lemon midfielder.

No way unless he's priced sub $350k

    lostlarrikin · 02/12/2014 at 00:17

    That's some straight shootin there WFC. Surmising a hefty chunk of JBs bad-love letters are penned in the burrow.
    Truth hurts no doubt.
    Sweet dreams mate.
    Perhaps skip the grapefruit nightcap tonight 🙂

      Seaford Scouse · 02/12/2014 at 08:35

      Cheers Losty great write-up as always! I’m with Wombats of this one though, Simply too many variables need to fall in place for the fox to become SC value this year I reckon. Pretty definite no from me at the moment and would take some pretty trouser arousing performances pre-season to turn that around, so much so in fact that they’d have to give new meaning to the term shinboner down at arden street. Swallow on the other hand…

        lostlarrikin · 02/12/2014 at 17:00

        Ha…shin-boner, classic!
        Yeah i wasnt really tryin to win anyone over to The Fox side with my assessment.
        Agree, Swallow would be my pick of the two.

      WombatsFC · 02/12/2014 at 10:53

      Thanks Losty.
      I don't see the value in running around stroking each others arousal curves this early in the preseason.
      I'm not trying to belittle the good work you and others have put in for articles like this but it seems as if every player being reviewed is being rated as a chance, sort of like tipping the whole field in Melbourne Cup.

        lostlarrikin · 02/12/2014 at 16:54

        lol, well put

Comments are closed.