Will the injection of superstars steal his points?

TG Footy Tracgic - DexterTom Rockliff was priced $591k to begin the 2014 season and many people thought he was too big a risk at that price. He was my third picked midfielder behind GAJ and Beams, and while he missed a few games, I was bloody chuffed to have started with him! I looked into his 2013 and was floored by his final 9 games, I’m sure many just looked at his overall season 2013 numbers…

The 2014 AFL season saw Tom Rockliff announce himself as a super-elite Supercoach option.

New coach Leppitsch put Rocky in the guts – where he belongs – instead of up forward where Voss put him in 2012 and parts of 2013. The result saw him finish the 2014 season with the second highest Supercoach average – behind Ablett. Looking over his stats, he was up on almost everything, but the standouts were; avg. disposals – 32.7 in 2013, up from 27.4 in 2013. Avg. tackles – 9.1 in 2014, up from 5.1 in 2013 (a 60% increase!) and clearances – avg. 6.4 in 2014, up from 4.6 in 2013.

When you look at his stats over the last 3 years, a majority of them have shown the same upward trend in growth. For three consecutive seasons his disposals have risen, as have contested possessions, marks, tackles & clearances. His Supercoach Ton ratio went 40.9% in 2012, 61.9% in 2013 and 83.3% in 2014. His sub 80 scores have dwindled in this time also; with 31.8% in 2012, 14.3% in 2013, and 5.6% in 2014. This is a clear trend indicating that Rockliff has taken that next step to Supercoach Elitehood.

2015 Price: $709,500
2015 Position: MID
Games last season: 18
Average last season: 132
100+ games last season: 5
Sub 80 games last season: 1 (74)
Price range last season: $583K – $711K
Missed games last season: 4; RD2 (suspended), RD10 (Gastro), RD17 (Suspended), RD23 (Officially listed as Illness, Pretty sure it was tonsillitis)
Significant history: Averaged 109.7 in 2013
Averaged 97.3 in 2012
Averaged 113.6 in 2011
Suspended for 2 games; Striking & Rough Conduct
Other feats:
Drafted at pick 5 in the 2009 Pre-Season draft.

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I can hear you saying “But what about when Rich, Redden and co return? Won’t that reduce his output?” – Maybe. Just have a look at this little table I have put together. This table has looked at Tom Rockliff’s Supercoach Scores from 2012-2014 and averaged his scores in the seasons he played with them.

Example – He played the 2012 and 2013 seasons with Black, his 2012-2013 season average was 103.5 points. In that time he averaged 94.59 when Black played and 103.58 when Black didn’t play.

Image 1

This table has shown his numbers aren’t massively affected from these players. He went gang-busters in the back-end of 2014, that’s why his avg. post-Redden is so huge. He did get 3 150+ scores with Redden in the team in 2014. He only played in 1 match without Aish and got 158. My money is on Rocky maintaining the rage and going 120+ for 2015 – with the incoming talent he has to share the opposition attention with, he’s sure to get off the chain.

The simple fact is; Tom Rockliff is a beast. He missed 4 games in 2014 and still bettered his overall tackle count of 2013 by 55. 3 less games than 2013 and 55 MORE tackles! He went 40+ disposals 5 times. He had 10 or more contested possessions in all but 3 games. His disposal efficiency was a very tidy 67%, for such a contested player, is nothing to scoff at. He also registered 18 more clearances in 3 less games than 2013. Simply put, Rocky has arrived.

RISK FACTORS

The return of midfield stars in Rich & Redden, add the inclusion of Beams and Christensen have some people worried that his output will diminish. Maybe, but I think he’ll still average 120+.

SELECTION PURPOSE

Set and forget Super-Elite premium & captain worthy scorer. You MUST go Rocky if you don’t go GAJ. If not, then he’s an upgrade target – either way – he must be in your round 23 team.

THE GOOD

  • Contested BEAST! Avg. 13.6 CP and 9.1 Tackles a game in 2014.
  • High Disposal getter. Avg. 32.7 in 2014.
  • Since 2012 Rocky has averaged 120 in wins, 106 in losses.
  • Of his last 27 games; he has tonned up 24 times! 24 TIMES OUT OF 27!!!
  • High ceiling, 10 150+ scores in last 3 years, high of 182.
  • Durable, injury wise – missed 1 game in last 3 years (quad soreness).

THE DOWNSIDE

  • Prone to swing the arm and sit out a match or two.
  • Plenty of star-power to share in the 3300 points on offer.
  • Price. 710k (confirmed price $709,500) is a fair chink to part with.

THE VERDICT

I seriously can’t find much to fault with the Rocklobster. His numbers are sublime! He exploded in the back end of 2013 and maintained the rage for 2014 – so I’m tipping a continuation of this form into 2015.

For me though, his price dictates that it’ll be him or GAJ in my starting team – so sorry Rocky, GAJ wins. Although, if GAJ doesn’t come up or looks under-done come 2015 kick-off, then I’ll pick Rocky – but either way, he WILL be a feature in my team for 2015. The sooner I have the coin, the better!

NO to start – YES to upgrade

Do I have Rocks in my head? Or am I on the money?

Dexter

Twitter: @TG_Footy_Tragic

 

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33 Comments

lostlarrikin · 29/11/2014 at 00:23

Ahh the Rock Lobster, kickin review Dex!
Love what Leppa has turned him into.
Makes me wanna sing…

(Ski-doo-be-dop) We were at a party (Eww)
(Ski-doo-be-dop) Vossy's contract fell in the deep (Eww)
(Ski-doo-be-dop) Someone reached into the fwd pocket and grabbed it (Eww)
(Ski-doo-be-dop) Was a Rock Lobster (Eww)
Ahhhhhhhh, Rock Lobstaaaaaaaaaa!

As you suggest, it's Gaz or Rocky, you can't have em both out of the gates.
Gaz will always win out.
Hopefully the Thermidor makes it's way to the specials board after a few rounds.

    Chicko · 29/11/2014 at 06:17

    Magnificent work Losty!!

    @TG_Footy_Tragic · 30/11/2014 at 11:38

    Cheers Lost.
    I'll be keeping a keen eye on the first few weeks – with the mind to snap him up as soon as i can!

    Majestic verses mate!

throttlefinger · 29/11/2014 at 02:52

Tight as a drum as always, Dex. Well laid out my friend.

100% agree with your call of no to start, yes to upgrade. Sure he'll do well this year but not at Gaz levels, so not worth the initial coin. Be interesting to see how big he goes with Beams and Rich as his cohorts.

    Itchy Nuts Pieman · 29/11/2014 at 06:53

    Think I’ll be finishing with Brissy mids throts. But I can’t see myself starting with them. Also makes picking Zorko first up almost impossible as well. Embarrassment of Rich’s. Oh & he’s back back to. Pfft no team has a better midfield. But who is value at their price. Hmmmm who knows.

      throttlefinger · 29/11/2014 at 07:46

      Maybe Rich? Figure Rocky and Beams are gonna get most of the attention. Perhaps even Hanley if he's only Mid? Just thinking about it this much means that we'll have to see how it works in preseason and first couple games. Sure we'll learn much after seeing the Lions take on your boys in R1. Sure there will be much to glean. Only person I can see slotting in on that squad is Hanley if he's a DPP again. Otherwise, too many questions to be answered.

        Itchy Nuts Pieman · 29/11/2014 at 09:51

        Completely agree Throtttle. Hanley if he is DPP is hard to go past, might not get any attention. Lts of others to deal with. Could see a running off half back role for Rich. Which could make him tasty. But durability is not a strengh of the Rich man. I think they may well whip my boys in round 1. And they may not be the only victims.

          throttlefinger · 29/11/2014 at 10:20

          Think they'll be like the Cavs. Gonna start out slow until they get into a rhythm as a squad. Post R5 could see them starting to hit their stride. Why I think the game against the Pies will be fairly close.

    @TG_Footy_Tragic · 30/11/2014 at 11:39

    Cheers throtts!
    I've also done a Rich article, I'll give you the tip – He's very close to a berth in SoapOnARope

      throttlefinger · 30/11/2014 at 19:46

      Nice! Can't wait to read it, Dex!

Chicko · 29/11/2014 at 06:18

Completely agree Dex! Top review mate. Start with GAJ, means you can watch Rocky and see if his scoring output is impacted by the bevy of stars arriving in the midfield. I like the strategy mate.

Itchy Nuts Pieman · 29/11/2014 at 06:42

A very important piece to be delivered to the community & no one better credentialed to deliver it. Well played Dex. Completely agree on the upgrade target. With so much uncertainty around how the midfield will work now it’s going to be hard to pick any of them first up. Point pigs galore there is no doubt. 12 months ago Brissy was a laughing stock. The go home 5 did just that. But the replacements stood up immediately. And further gun additions this off season sees no one laughing anymore. But the who’s who of the points pig zoo remains to be seen. Far too much uncertainty to grab the rock lobster straight up for mine. Grounds for tremendous debate. Let the games begin. Super stuff Dex.

    @TG_Footy_Tragic · 30/11/2014 at 11:41

    Yeah mate.
    I feel that the Brissy midfield has the potential to explode!

    Rocky is too expensive to start considering the massive unknowns that come into play.

General Soreness · 29/11/2014 at 07:20

Exemplary analysis Dex, and you are spot on with your conclusion, upgrade target for 2015. Love the “rocks in my head” gold!

    @TG_Footy_Tragic · 30/11/2014 at 11:42

    Cheers General!
    I felt i have been lacking in the pun area – you guys have some doozies!

MASO · 29/11/2014 at 09:31

Great work , i was a NO before reading this one but im now more on the yes side of maybe

Rosco · 29/11/2014 at 09:54

Dex, you have Rocky as only having 5 100+ games last season. I am assuming it's 15 100+ games, not 5. Man, I remember that game he had 74. I had him as captain and I had already decided to not use the loophole. It was a Saturday night and I was sitting there having a mental breakdown as he stunk it up that night. I saw my overall ranking slipping away at a rapid rate. Then his late withdrawal grand final week made me really question my man love for him. Still, absolute GUN. Be a watch and see for me though.

    @TG_Footy_Tragic · 30/11/2014 at 11:44

    Thanks Rosco,

    Yeah it was 15 tons, I guess my proof-reading skills need work!
    I always ran the VC on him, then when god went down, i tried him as the captain.

    Worked well most weeks!

WombatsFC · 29/11/2014 at 09:56

Hi Dex excellent write up mate.
Unlike you I didn't have the Rock from the start in 2014, I waited until round 4 and payed $5,500 more than his starting price. Sure I missed out on his round 3 155 but I also missed his round1 95 and round2 donut.

Special thanks for the comparison data with and without other players. Obviously it doesn't matter who he plays alongside, put Gaz and Pendle in his team and Rocky would still bust out 10 or more 130+ games

Similar strategy to 2014 on Rocky for me. Structure the team so that I can easily get him before round 5 if he looks like continuing form (last year I dumped Titch & Caddy for Rocky & Fasolo).

Rocky actually had had 15 100+ games including 6 x 150+ and his lowest was against GWS. Wish I'd watched that GWS game to see what went on.

Masterful season 2014

155 rnd 2
(rnds 4-6 117,115,91)
132 rnd 7
133 rnd 8
(rnds 9,10 no played)
182 rnd 11
(rnds 12,13 = 104,74gws)
158 rnd 14
126 Rnd 15
141 rnd 16
(rnd 17 no played)
175 rnd 18
113 rnd 19
158 rnd 20
137 rnd 21
170 rnd 22

I don't see him increasing in price by much over the first 5 rounds even he starts like he finished the previous two seasons so I'll put Bont or somebody similar at M7 and if by round 5 that player isn't making buckets of cash I'll trade him for Rocky.

    throttlefinger · 29/11/2014 at 10:22

    His price will go down for sure in the first 5. That much can be guaranteed. Too many new parts. But he is one bad man for sure, Wombats. Think post R5 or byes he'll be ripe for bringing in. If same team as 2014, I'd expect same or better numbers. Too much SC-factoring talent on the Lions now.

    jockreynolds · 30/11/2014 at 09:03

    Onboard with you blokes – will wait to see if he bottoms out a touch before trying to snag him later on. Can't find a spot for him alongside GAJ in the guts at this price.

    Fair dinkum Wombats and Throtts – I am well and truly blown away by the quality of these analysis pieces. As proud of our community as I have ever been

    @TG_Footy_Tragic · 30/11/2014 at 11:47

    Thanks Wombats.
    My thoughts exactly – hope he doesn't increase until the first round of culls, and upgrade as soon as practical.

    High testicular fortitude there to select Bont straight up!

Barwick's Soilders · 29/11/2014 at 10:03

Nice article Dex, I agree it's him or gaz. Upgrade targert at moment, but can't possibarly start with 2 700k players, or can you?

    @TG_Footy_Tragic · 30/11/2014 at 11:48

    nah mate – too bloody expensive. especially with the unknowns of Beams and co incoming,

    Watch and upgrade early in the season for mine!

    Thanks Barwicks!

Dools · 29/11/2014 at 16:00

Great review Dex, The best of the best reviews so far man, this is better the GAJ/ Selwood!!
The seed of doubt has been removed this piece is an Icon, a beacon to all SC aficionado's
You argued brilliantly for inclusion and then Bang! Upgrade target….
A most enjoyable and informative review of a must have player for 2015 ….

    @TG_Footy_Tragic · 30/11/2014 at 11:49

    Cheers Dools!

    Glad i wrote a piece enjoyable to read!

    I bloody love writing them! Almost as much as compiling the stats…

JVN · 29/11/2014 at 17:08

Really speculate on him averaging above 110 now I've seen the influence redden had on his scoring. Rocky's best came after he was injured this year too. Wait and see for me.

    @TG_Footy_Tragic · 30/11/2014 at 11:56

    I can see where you come from JVN, as i said before – he went bonkers in the last half of the year.

    He did have 2 previous seasons scores in the avg with redden column… 2012 and 2013 years weren't as good as 2014.

    He went bonkers all year really, his avg with redden in for this year only is 123.5 SC points, Still elite.

Barwick's Soilders · 29/11/2014 at 22:11

Gaz, Pendles, Selwood and fyfe. I have done the maths, it is possible.

    throttlefinger · 29/11/2014 at 22:44

    Barwick, my man, I can tell you are a glass half full coach. Maybe even 3/4 full. Like it! Hope we get enough R1 playing rooks to make that happen.

Seaford Scouse · 01/12/2014 at 18:42

Cheers Dex, I’m with you all the way on this one, can’t fit him in at this stage and looks like a nice upgrade target, and if he follows on his former from last year he’s likely to be the first upgrade I look at. Pre-season goggles on the Lions so important this year. As for Rich, burnt me 2 years ago and I’m still scarred! But with a prospective discount looming I could be turned back so eagerly await your piece of expert analysis on him, needs to be very bloody convincing though mate, I’m even unsure which way I want your review to point at the moment. Time to.calm myself with some more ‘research’ time in the ‘lab of nonesense’

Comments are closed.