There are 3 certainties in life. Death, Taxes and a Gary Ablett ton.

TG Footy Tracgic - DexterIf you look up Gary Ablett Junior in the dictionary – it should read: “The greatest player to have graced the game of Australian Rules Football. Period.” It’s well documented how good Gary is. I can hear people ask; “Why analyze him? We all know how good he is”.

I don’t think people realize just how good he is…

Everybody has a religion; Christianity, Catholicism, Atheism, Protestantism, Buddhism, Scientology, Muslim, and many more. Even no religion is a religion. If I had one; it would be Supercoachology (maybe I’m the first one to adopt it?) – Of which Gary Ablett is the God. For so bloody long; his numbers have been majestic. He’s capable of absolutely MAMMOTH scores and currently sits 3rd on the All-time highest scores list. It was set in round 5 of 2008, where he amassed 254 points; playing the complete game.

Since SC inception in 2006; The Little Master has broken the fabled 200 barrier 3 times! Just once is a feat in itself; but thrice is just God-Like! He has achieved a 170+ score 19 bloody times… Nobody has achieved the numbers that this man has.

In the 2014 season; quite a few thought they’d get Ablett as an upgrade target rather than start with him. That was a COLOSSAL mistake – considering he opened with 7 consecutive 120+ scores, to average 146.9; making his price balloon to 740k – up 45k on his starting value.

2015 sees a wind change at the Suns. Rocket Eade is coach and Gablett is returning from a reconstructed shoulder and all reports say he is progressing well, and should have a full preseason. Who cares who the coach is; Gary has played under a few, and since 2008; he has averaged over 114 every year

2015 Price: $734,600
2015 Position: MID
Games last season: 15
Average last season: 136.7
100+ games last season: 13
Sub 80 games last season: 2 (one due to injury in his final game of 2014)
Price range last season: $670K-$754K
Missed games last season: 7; RDs 17-23 (Shoulder Reconstruction)
Significant history: Averaged over 114 for 7 straight yearsAveraged over 130 4 times2 Brownlow Medals2 Premierships8 times All Australian5 times B&F3 times Leading Goal kicker

Drafted pick 40 in 2001 National Draft (Father Son)

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I suppose we should delve into just how good he really is. Look at these for numbers in his last 3 years: 

Gary Ablett 2012-2014

Games 56
AVG Supercoach Points 134.6
AVG SC in Wins 137.3
AVG SC in Losses 130.8
sub 80 games 4
80-99 pt games 4
100-110 pt games 3
111 – 120 pt games 6
121 – 130 pt games 7
131 – 140 pt games 7
141 – 150 pt games 7
151+ pt games 17
100-150 pt games 31
100+ games 48

By those numbers alone, you should just pick him. Set him as captain and bask in the majesty of his numbers. 100+ in 85% of his games and 151+ in a THIRD of his games… a 151+ score every three weeks. Yep. Did anyone say Permacaptain?

His stats show that he does slightly better in wins; which is good – considering the Suns will make top 8 in 2015. Maybe even a smoky for top 4. Any way you read it; Gary Ablett is a Monty for your team. I don’t know about you, but this year when he went down, I struggled to find a consistent captain-worthy player. If he plays Friday or Saturday – VC him; He’ll more than likely go big. If he plays Sunday, or you have another captain option play before him; use him as the captain. You need the reliability he provides.

Now, if you have high testicular fortitude and are considering NOT starting Ablett in the hope he starts the year slow; think again. His average in the first 7 rounds of the last 5 years read: 146.9 in 2014, 138.4 in 2013, 144.6 in 2012 (he missed 2 of the opening 7 from minor knee injury), 118.2 in 2011 (new team, groin troubles), 155.2 in 2010 (missed 1 game due to hammy).

So… are you still going to start without Gary? I thought not.

RISK FACTORS

  • Rocket Eade has mentioned that Gary will be spending more time up fwd.
  • Returning from Major Injury.

SELECTION PURPOSE

Set and forget Permacaptain. Some may want to go on the cheap and trade into him. Either way; Gary should feature in every single SC team come round 23.

THE GOOD

  • 7 consecutive 114 averaging seasons. With 4 130+.
  • The complete player. Possessions. Efficiency. CP. Goals. Assists. Tackles.
  • Permacaptain. One third of his last 56 games have been 151+
  • Sub 100 8 times in 3 years, once due to injury.

THE DOWNSIDE

  • New coach has stated he will (may) play more time up forward.
  • Returning from major shoulder surgery.
  • Expensive
  • Generally misses 1-2 games a year.

THE VERDICT

I don’t know about you, but Gary Ablett junior will be my first pick in 2015. The only thing that will stop me selecting him is if his leg falls off. Even then he’ll become a 50-50 prospect. Gary Ablett with one leg is still better than most players.

Yes; he is over 30. He’s still a freak.

There is a new coach; he’ll still get the pill.

He might play up forward; he’ll still get the pill and kick goals.

Even though he usually misses 1-2 games; he is still worth the coin. He’s just that good.

The Suns have a better coach in 2015. The team has acquired better players and the kids are improving. They’ll win more games than not and should play finals.

Gary Ablett of 2009 – premiership year. Averaged 140.1.

Gary Ablett of 2015 – top 8 team. Will average 130+.

You’d have to have rocks in your head not to start GAJ.

Welcome to SoapOnARope; Your Highness.

100% LOCK.

Do you agree?

Or do I have rocks in my head?

Dexter

Twitter: @TG_Footy_Tragic

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AFL Supercoach Legend Jock ReynoldsThis article has been penned by an elite Supercoach analyst hand picked from the talent pool of the Jock Reynolds Fantasy Footy Community. He has stood up within our community as a man of fantasy substance, and has displayed the spirit of togetherness, positivity and community that we value significantly.


49 Comments

Itchy Nuts Pieman · 23/11/2014 at 09:08

That’s a quality Sunday morning sermon Dex. All hail god. First picked no doubt. Doubt we will ever have a SC player like him for a long time. Well until his kids play. Might back him for the Coleman. His dad was pretty good when he went forward. Never thought I’d see a better than than Gary senior. It took a long time & a lot of convincing but he’s taken the mantle. Super write up Dex. Justice has been done.

    throttlefinger · 23/11/2014 at 10:09

    Agree Pieman. Dex brought the hammer down and made an almost airtight case for the reasons why Gaz should be in your side. Unless the shoulder hasn't healed and it's apparent preseason he's not in top form, he's player 1 chosen.

      Itchy Nuts Pieman · 23/11/2014 at 10:27

      Gotta feel for Dools today throttle. He won’t need to go to fridge for this article. Sure he will anyway. I had a mate who declared last preseason Abblett’s sc supremacy days were done. So he didn’t pick him. Fair to say I reminded him regularly of his catastrophic decision. Msgs like “GAJ is under 800k this week” were constant. Never write off a champ.

        throttlefinger · 23/11/2014 at 11:56

        He is our one and only god.

          Itchy Nuts Pieman · 23/11/2014 at 15:19

          Dools your somewhere between Colonel Kurtz & Ken Bruce (tied to a chair rocking back & forward declaring he’s stark raving mad). Dools has gone mad, Dools has gone mad. Dools has gone completely mad!

            Dools · 23/11/2014 at 15:45

            An extremely thin line between madness and Genius …I agree I'm more on the mad side but even that could be genius….I'm more a Hogan type
            ' Hogan's Heroes,American television sitcom set in a German prisoner of war (POW) camp during World War II. It ran for 168 episodes from September 17, 1965, to July 4, 1971, on the CBS network. Bob Crane starred as Colonel Robert E. Hogan, co-ordinating an international crew of Allied prisoners running a Special Operations group from the camp. Colonel Wilhelm Klink, the incompetent commandant of the camp, ." So I think I will take Klink over Kuntz my good man However if I'm the commandant you must be my inept Sargent at arms, Hans Schultz!!!"
            If I am to be Colonel Kuntz (Love that name) you are Capt Colby!!! my friend lol

              throttlefinger · 23/11/2014 at 22:17

              HAHAHAHAHA. Use to watch that and Bewitched all the time. Bob Crane…what a maniac!

            throttlefinger · 23/11/2014 at 22:20

            Dools isn't mad. It's KEYBOARD who is off its hinge, Pieman. Dools is merely an ectoplasmic puppet who's assigned to do Keyboard's SC bidding. Beware. You do not want to upset Keyboard.

          Itchy Nuts Pieman · 23/11/2014 at 16:32

          Colonel Kuntz. Think he runs the scoring system at champion data. Hogans heroes was a but before my time. So maybe your in between Klink & Kuntz. Just an incompetent mad man lol

        Dools · 23/11/2014 at 12:05

        Woke up at 7 am this morning and turned on the computer, No new article so I read a book, must have got carried away with it as I went back to computer at 11 am and Bang, Whack and just for good measure here have another Bang!
        Excellent Stuff from Dex – What did I learn from this piece…..Not enough, GAJ is BRILLIENT I know and so do you guys , He is SC scoring Platinum, a "C" set and forget and unfortunately still recovering from surgery
        A surgery that required 2 pins not 1, (Staples and stiches seem to be stable and in the correct location)
        The shoulder is the most complex and unstable joint in the body and it can get injured easily. (A Point other teams will target)
        Because of the variability in the injury and the type of repair done, it is difficult to predict how soon someone can to return to activities and to sports after the repair. The type of sport also is important, since contact sports have a greater chance of injuring the repair (esp if the repair is labrum).
        The surgeon who performed reconstructive surgery on Gary Ablett's left shoulder has told the club that the injury was worse than first thought.
        Keyboard and Next G device want GAJ in but I'm cautious. It's now November 23rd , 4 months and 3 plus weeks since the injury and surgery and still no contact drills But there is another 5 months before the season starts so I'm just sitting here with beer in hand contemplating what if's and maybe's ….
        Believe me I do not want to be right, I want the man on my squad but anything less then full recovery well….So I'm 40/60 ATM and planning a team with out him.
        Once again great write up from Dex and a compelling case and I'm sure TF and INP and some more of you will reply to this post…."To the Fridge!!"

          Itchy Nuts Pieman · 23/11/2014 at 12:37

          That fridge has made you drunk on power. Not picking Gaz has your campaign on life support. There is a dedicated graveyard for those who Havnt picked him.

            Dools · 23/11/2014 at 12:42

            That may be true if he is up and fit I will pick him ATM he is not so I will be the master of my own destiny!
            If that means a Viking Funeral well that's they way it goes mate

          Itchy Nuts Pieman · 23/11/2014 at 12:44

          I’ll speak to throttle about organising a nice head stone for you Dools. Least we can do!

            Dools · 23/11/2014 at 12:46

            Bury me with/in me fridge at sea (The Gods Know I spent enough time going to it)
            No headstone required every one will know he was the dude who did not pick GAJ

          Itchy Nuts Pieman · 23/11/2014 at 12:55

          You & the fridge come as a package. Certainly could double as nice coffin.

          Itchy Nuts Pieman · 23/11/2014 at 13:02

          I’m sensing some Marlon Brando in apocalypse now Dools. Have you got shoe polish on your face today?

            Dools · 23/11/2014 at 13:07

            Hahahah Great movie INP.
            I have not put on the Cam paint as I'm not in a war zone to-day…..I'm sensing "Ground Hog Day" but lol

          Itchy Nuts Pieman · 23/11/2014 at 13:21

          Thought you might have been sniffing some napalm this morning. Great movie.

            Dools · 23/11/2014 at 13:28

            More like the sweet aroma of cheeky little Shiraz with a bouquet of berry and with a hint of pepper.
            Getting red(y) for the cricket and making funeral arrangements lol

          Itchy Nuts Pieman · 23/11/2014 at 13:38

          A cheeky breakfast Shiraz. You working your way through your bucket list? Hope your drinking straight out of the bottle!

            Dools · 23/11/2014 at 13:55

            True it is in a glass already INP but even I draw the line at necking vino…..Unlike my penchant for not picking GAJ!!!

    @TG_Footy_Tragic · 23/11/2014 at 11:00

    Cheers INP!

    I wasn't gonna start him, then the research yielded an AIRTIGHT case to pick him!

David Johnson · 23/11/2014 at 09:13

Yes, a lock. Especially considering that he’s technically UNDERPRICED … take out his season-ending injury game, and his average goes up to 142!!!

    Barwick's Soilders · 23/11/2014 at 10:48

    Great point David!!

Creeker · 23/11/2014 at 09:17

Great work once again Dex.
Lock, Lock, Lock, Lock, Lock, Lock, Lock.
Returning from injury, pffft. The little bald man could lose an arm and still smash out 150's.
First picked for the Creekers in 2015.

WombatsFC · 23/11/2014 at 09:24

100% agree Dex.
This time L/Y the word was that Gaz would be spending more time up forward, and he did.
The extra fwd time didn't make any difference to his scores in 2014 but it might bump him up by 20-50 p/week in 2015

throttlefinger · 23/11/2014 at 10:07

Incredibly thorough review. Loved the deep data dive. Haven't started with Gaz the last two years. Logics abound why I didn't yet never came to fruition to the degree planned. Lesson well learned. In TF for 2015. Lock.

jockreynolds · 23/11/2014 at 10:18

Will start as #1 selected in JR Brumby FC. Simple as that.

    Itchy Nuts Pieman · 23/11/2014 at 10:35

    One day jock he will go forward kick 8, still have 35 touches & score 300. You’d be inconsolable if you didn’t have him. Whilst it’s optional, its suicide not to pick him.

Barwick's Soilders · 23/11/2014 at 10:54

Great one Dex!! 100% locked and loaded, and he will be underpriced. Have started him last 5 years and will continue to. Love the opening line "There are 3 certainties in life. Death, Taxes and a Gary Ablett ton."

@TG_Footy_Tragic · 23/11/2014 at 11:01

Cheers guys.

Loved delving into the numbers. GAJ is second to none and my team shall be sculpted around him!

lostlarrikin · 23/11/2014 at 11:48

Quality Dex.
Yeah i'll admit I started this yr without him. Abberation – yep!
Lesson learnt, perpetual LOCK.
I didn't have the worse start mind you, but it stings of what coulda been.
Fair to say the Master had arguably his best year (though not SC wise).

What slapped me was his goal conversion this year – 77%!
In 2014 GAJ scored 27 goals / 7 behinds vs 28/23, 26/19 and 18/17 in three yrs previous.
Who cares if he gets a bit more fwd time, he'll be winning the game in the last quarter on a regular basis if he can maintain that rate.
Career best Clearances, Tackles and CPs tell me he's just warming up.

rainman · 23/11/2014 at 12:35

It is rare that the sequel is better than the original but it does happen. The Empire Strikes back, Back to the future 2 and Sweet Merciful Jesus.

G Ablett 1.0 was ball tearingly good, but his pup is a real scrotum ripper. Once in a lifetime player and it is just bloody easier not to worry how to get him in. Lockity lock lock.

Wonderful analysis once again

    Itchy Nuts Pieman · 23/11/2014 at 12:58

    Like Rainman & QANTAS it’s the only way I’m travelling.

      rainman · 23/11/2014 at 13:28

      Not going with him would be like relying on Tiger Airways…..and nobody wants that

        Itchy Nuts Pieman · 23/11/2014 at 13:43

        More chance of a regular Gary Rohan ton. Burnman airlines it should be called.

@cafosk · 23/11/2014 at 12:43

Does anyone have an estimate as to what his breakeven will be?
I know its sacrilege to not pick him, but just getting all options!

    Dools · 23/11/2014 at 13:00

    G'day @cafosk
    Last year he was $695 K round 1 by round 4 he was $707 K with an AVG 147 with scores of 140, 121 and 182,
    By Round 11 he was worth $754 K (his AVG was now 151 per game)
    I think if his starting price is $ 735 K his Avg to maintain value is approx. around the 146 mark – Not impossible we are talking GAJ (Pre injury)

@BarronVonCrow · 23/11/2014 at 14:05

With their first selection, Barron Von Crow's Danger Bees select Gary Ablett from the Gold Coast Suns.

He's L-O-C-K-E-D into my side.

Great stuff, Dex. Every year I go back and forth on him, but I always relent and pick him and end up so glad that I did. So i'm skipping the headaches and putting him in place right now.

    throttlefinger · 23/11/2014 at 22:23

    Like SC's Burning Man…a regular pre-season ritual where we all dance around with patchouli soaked locks chanting if this the year without Gaz? Dex threw some very cold soapy water on all our heads with this piece. Saved us from the stink of it all.

Chicko · 23/11/2014 at 18:44

You champion Dex, I started 2014 without GAJ and i felt sick for the first 9 weeks without him in my team. Will be the first picked in 2015 into the Chumps. Thank you Dex for an outstanding reminder not to lose my mind in 2015.

Phil · 23/11/2014 at 20:58

Great piece of work before reading it I was 75/25, now I'm about 95/5….

A few years ago I used to justify paying a big price tag on Gary by saying, although your captains score gets doubled, his value doesn't get doubled to your salary cap….so it makes 100% sense to pick the best player from the get go regardless of his price tag. I don't try to justify it now, I just pick him.

Only downside I could see in picking him would be he is a massive POD (especially with the better sides) if you don't pick him. So if something did go wrong and he returned to a mortal, you would get a massive jump on a lot of teams for the 50k!

General Soreness · 24/11/2014 at 09:54

Ripping write up Dex, was very interested to see this article given the injury and to see what your recommendation would be. 100% agree LOCK. Generally my SC teams start with the pick of GAJ and Pendles, then I work around that.

Big_BenFC · 24/11/2014 at 14:28

Great work mate,

LOCK AND LOAD

Tom · 24/11/2014 at 20:34

Two other very good reasons to start with him. Unless something drastic happens you will have to get him in at some stage anyway, especially to finish the year for league players. Secondly, unless something drastic happens he will be $650k+ (at least) midseason and it requires culling two cash cows (rather than the customary 1 for an upgrade/downgrade combo) to get him in. If hes healthy to start the year, its much too painful getting him in mid season. Lock

    Dools · 24/11/2014 at 20:53

    Agreed
    A total lock Tom if he is the GAJ from last season before the injury wait and see…..

      lostlarrikin · 25/11/2014 at 18:56

      hearing that Gaz is lining up for yet another procedure to free up his shoulder…
      concerning.

        Tom · 25/11/2014 at 20:16

        That would be the only reason to avoid him, the list of players to dominate after missing the preseason may start and finish with Selwood but the list of players to under perform is a mile long. Will want to see him play in the preseason before picking him, thats for sure

oDognutZo · 10/01/2015 at 01:46

Kneel below the little bald man LOCK

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