Smells like Webster spirit?

Supercoach author LostlarrikinWe all know this caper is about statistics. Cold hard digits. However, there occasionally comes a time when we need to throw caution to the wind and dig deep to our intestinal fortitude and testicular amplitude in order to choose that rare gem that will help kick start our SC season.

For many of us in 2014, that perceived gem was a guy named Jimmy Webster. Many an aggot was gingerly placed onto the block, as Supercoach pop guns were locked and loaded with Webster for round 1. Not wanting to stir up repressed demons and send many of you back to therapy, I will keep this short. Suffice to say that Webster’s 2014 was largely devoid of highlights, culminating with his ankle injury on a sorry June day in round 15.

Many of us could have been excused for thinking that all our Mr. Hankeys had come at once, as the Webster stain was difficult to remove.

So what’s with the history lesson? I hear you cry.

Well fast forward to April 2nd 2015 and we might well think it is Groundhog Day.

Lock out is imminent, and we are being tortured/teased by the prospect of yet another young Saint half-back flanker ready to strut his stuff.

Step into the spotlight…Jack Newnes!

Supercoach prospects.

2015 Price: $436,800
2015 Position: MID/DEF
Games last season: 22
Average last season: 81.3
100+ games last season: 4
Sub 80 games last season: 8
Price range last season: $313K – $434K
Missed games last season: 0
Significant history: 2014 — ranked third at the club for total marks
– ranked second at the club (behind Hayes) for total tackles and handballs
– ranked first at the club for total uncontested possessions
– Drafted at Pick #37 in the 2011 National Draft

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Young Jack Newnes had a breakout year in 2014, lifting his SC output to 81 (from 58 in 2013). Newnes’ numbers were up across the board as he played a mixture of roles from rebounding HB flanker to head to head wingman jobs, averaging 19.9 disposals per game. Newnes dipped mid season when the Saints came up against some tough opposition in the Hawks, Power, Geelong and the Kangas, hence the high number of sub 80 games.

Debate still rages about how friendly the Saints draw is but I must say the first half looks pretty tasty. Pre-bye (round 12), the Saints face only two top 8 sides (Hawks and Dons) and travel interstate 3 times (not counting the NZ trip). Granted this is the side that took out the spoon and it will be a hard slog for them to win any of those 11 pre-bye games but I don’t expect a massacre each week. If the Saints can fight for their share of the 3300 each week then Newnes has the potential to build confidence and cash as the season fires up.

I can hear the loud rustle of the collective community scratching their heads and saying “Hey Lost, your not playing with all four Hippos mate, this kid is priced at $440K!” (confirmed price $436,800)

So what makes this kid worthy of even a second glance in Supercoach 2015?

Its that sweet-sounding, curvaceous acronym that we drool over…DPP!

Although a pure Mid in 2014, Newnes is in line to pick up Def/Mid status based on his varied role this year. Now $440K might seem a bit pricey for a kid that’s only just played his first uninterrupted season, but there’s more than meets the eye here.

Newnes has proven he can match it at the elite level and has been widely touted as a future leader at the club. His price is indicative of his strong finish to 2014 where he pumped out an average of 92 over his last six games and finished with a respectable DE of 75%.

If all this whipped cream and chocolate sauce isn’t enough to rock your Sundae then the fat cherry on the top is…the prospect of Newnes moving to the midfield!

Yeah yeah, clubs are making statements on an hourly basis about how Player X is being groomed for more midfield time, is this waffle any different?

To be honest, I really don’t know.

But.

The Saints are one club that can definitely make room for another mid following the departure of Sir Lenny and this kid has already shown he has the tank to rotate through the guts.

RISK FACTOR

Where do you start…

  • Role Uncertainty – could be playing more time in the middle, may assist in lifting his output or he could become a tagger and stagnate.
  • Price – $440 aint cheap with plenty of backline value to be had for less.
  • DPP (or lack thereof) – simple really, no DPP – no show!
  • My poor humour – you have a severe hatred for Andie McDowell Rom Coms, as such have already stopped reading this preview.

SELECTION PURPOSE

Picking Mr Newnes from the get go will take some plums and in doing so you are banking on one of two outcomes.
1. He sets the world on fire pre-bye and makes a tidy sum to act as a stepping stone or
2. He raises his output to 90+ and potentially locks himself in as a top ten defender

THE GOOD

  • Already getting plenty of game time with a 2014 TOG @ 81% could improve.
  • Strong finish to 2014.
  • Young and durable – has missed one game since cementing spot in rnd 6 2013
  • He will be a point of difference, with many likely to look elsewhere in this price range

THE DOWNSIDE

  • Has already had a breakout year, can he really back it up with another decent points rise?
  • Plays for the Saints (sorry Jock) ☺
  • Did I mention he’s $440K?

THE VERDICT

I personally don’t see Punxsutawney Phil forecasting an extended Winter for the young Newnes boy. Whether he plays more midfield time or not, I’m pretty solid on this kid becoming a 90+ player. All this hinges on DPP though and the sweet backline bonanza that maybe in store.

50/50 for a spot at the Knights round table.

So what will it be Hi De Ho or Hi De No?

lostlarrikin

Twitter: @lostlarrikin

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AFL Supercoach Legend Jock ReynoldsThis article has been penned by an elite Supercoach analyst hand picked from the talent pool of the Jock Reynolds Fantasy Footy Community. He has stood up within our community as a man of fantasy substance, and has displayed the spirit of togetherness, positivity and community that we value significantly.


37 Comments

General Soreness · 16/11/2014 at 06:39

BANG!!!! What losty starts with? Ripping article mate, clearly it’s good newnes week. You make a strong case for the lad and I hope he goes gang busters. Too risky for me at the price. A firm No for me, a possible corrective if he starts on fire.

    lostlarrikin · 16/11/2014 at 10:34

    Thanks General, yeah pretty awkward price with not a whole lot of history on the board

throttlefinger · 16/11/2014 at 06:59

DAAAAAANG! Losty you came in firing bull eyes right off the bat.

Great insights and well-rounded look at Newnes. Agree with the General that he's a touch too pricey. The DPP status makes it a bit enticing, yet Round 3 is the best I can see him doing for my team.

    lostlarrikin · 16/11/2014 at 10:38

    Cheers TF
    Yup DPP will mean everything here, definite loin stirrer with a status change.
    Just hoping they don't mould him into a tagger.

      throttlefinger · 16/11/2014 at 23:53

      Forgot to say that was a brilliant comparison with Webster. Had him myself from the jump. Lots of hope lead down trails of tears. Well done, my friend.

Itchy Nuts Pieman · 16/11/2014 at 07:41

Off the mark with a boundary Losty (sorry throts you won’t understand that one). I’m not willing to write him off just yet. The DPP possibility & more mid time are worth a look at I think. I’ll be casting an eye over him during NAB cup. I don’t like spending over 500k for defenders. So he might fit that criteria. Great piece Losty.

    throttlefinger · 16/11/2014 at 08:57

    INP, I've been looking at that line for the last 5 minutes trying to figure out what the lamb shanks that could mean. No idea. I'm seeing lines and an umpire and a small chair with an elderly gentleman with a bag of chips and a conductor's wand. There's also a laughing nun. Hmmm. Can't put it all together.

    Agree that I'm hesitant to pay that much for a DEF, unless he's a proven SC star DPP player.

    Watchlist kid. Middle of the list.

      Itchy Nuts Pieman · 16/11/2014 at 09:19

      It’s a cricket terminology Throts. Kind of like hitting a home run off the first pitch you face. Cricket is big here & several other countries. If your coming over at some stage come over Christmas. We could take you to the Boxing Day cricket test match. The crowd consumes more than 1000 kegs for the day. And that’s just the tap beer. Plenty of other drinks as well. My brother in law is the beer rep for the MCG. The booze comsumption is incredible & makes for a hell of an atmosphere. It’s an awesome day. I’ve never left without impaired vision! I fell for the Sam Mitchell trap last year twice. I’ll be thinking harder about defenders in 2015 & probably allocating the least amount of funds to that line. Andrew Walker & Sam Mitchell have joined my banned for life list.

        throttlefinger · 16/11/2014 at 10:08

        Hell, that sounds freakin awesome. Even my old ass would LOVE a day of that! Watched cricket on tv once. Reminds me of baseball…probably much better live than on tube.

        Yeah, I think defenders is where I'm gonna go thin. They were easily the most frustrating. Hanley is probably the only big ticket Def I would spend the loot on. Maybe McVeigh. But I hear yah. I don't want to skimp on Mids and Rucks this season (well, R1-R3). Fwds will be probably the most closely examined in terms of values and $500K players. Defs not getting that courtesy this season. Few above $500K keep their value for long.

      lostlarrikin · 16/11/2014 at 10:40

      I've seen plenty of laughing nuns at the Boxing Day test Throts, so not far off the mark there.
      Sobriety questionable…

        throttlefinger · 16/11/2014 at 10:57

        Haha. Murky sobriety events are a specialty, lost.

    lostlarrikin · 16/11/2014 at 10:50

    Thanks for the shout INP.
    Reckon you guys set me up well early by seeing off the openers with some stellar previews.
    As hinted by many, an R3 correction could be a safer bet.

      Itchy Nuts Pieman · 16/11/2014 at 13:36

      No worries Losty. The new ball has been seen off & it’s time to start bashing it around. An R3 corrective is probably the right move. But risks need to be taken somewhere. And Newnes would certainly be a POD.

Phil · 16/11/2014 at 09:03

Backline gonna be a hard position to pick next year, we might lose a few premiums (Mitchell, Swallow, Hanley). I don't see much value, and I'm not aware of any decent rookies who aren't key position…..So, for me Newnes is the type of player I'll consider.
A few solid NAB games in the midfield might get him into my team. Nice work

    Itchy Nuts Pieman · 16/11/2014 at 09:28

    Bartel kicked 24 goals this year. Think we can add him to the DEF/mid exodus Phil. So def DPP’s could be hard to find. Makes Newnes more relevant for mine.

Barwick's Soilders · 16/11/2014 at 09:54

lostlarrikin, What an article mate. I will say this he is a 80/20 for me at this stage. He is the type of player that gets me excited. Yes for me at this stage but MUST BE DPP

    lostlarrikin · 16/11/2014 at 13:56

    Cheers BS. Yeah I chopped and changed a fair bit on lock percentage while writing this.
    If the ducks line up as we hope then i'll be up around the 70-80% range.

Kev · 16/11/2014 at 10:08

Bloody awesome write up, lost! This is a noodle scratcher of the highest order. The kid definitely has talent, TOG% and DE% for 2014 were fantastic (81.4 and 75.3%, respectively). The epitome of wait and see, if his role is through the guts and he gets that DPP, I'll be all over him.

    lostlarrikin · 16/11/2014 at 14:14

    Thanks Kev, definitely a rash candidate.
    If he gets Knighted with the double halo, then he'll be more popular than KK's horse butt.

Dools · 16/11/2014 at 10:33

Great write up Lost,
I think I will pass on him 10/90 I might be better served with a rookie from a cash generation point of view (That's if there are any out there, his DPP is intriguing but )

    lostlarrikin · 16/11/2014 at 14:09

    Thanks Dools, has the Rectangular Antarctic Research Laboratory yet to uncover any defensive rookie cows for the watchlist?
    Not too bring the vibe down or anything but there could be a whole swag of red and black kids back there come round 1.

      Dools · 16/11/2014 at 22:52

      The Rectangular Antarctic Research Laboratory (RARL) LOL love the acronym LOL
      The Alter of the Gods shows some possibilities but its like trying to grab smoke at the moment.
      I fore see a raft of young bombers debuting early, and even if this does not come to pass I see others in the draft from 2012/13 in defence

Creeker · 16/11/2014 at 11:34

Nice work once again.
Didn't know much about Newnes. Noticed him a few times throughout this season but this preview has opened my eyes a little.
As Phil has pointed out, next years backline will take some nutting out.
At the very least, Newnes is now added to my watchlist. Will be monitored closely.
Quality reading Lost. Many thanks.

rainman · 16/11/2014 at 13:15

Of all the nubile young talent at the saints, this lad that peaks my arousal the most. He is already a very good player and will only improve. If DPP I will be whacking a chastity belt on him and locking it in. Sparsity of defenders next year and this boy will overlooked by many. I don’t mind that at all.

Another cracking analysis and write up.

WombatsFC · 16/11/2014 at 19:57

Damn LL you'll be needing a wheelbarrow to carry those aggotts to round 1

    lostlarrikin · 16/11/2014 at 23:51

    Ha u ain't arf tootin there Wombat.
    Luckily INP has offered up his esky on wheels, so just gonna park up for now and cool the curve.

    Good to see ya back.

WombatsFC · 16/11/2014 at 19:57

When does the footy start?

    Barwick's Soilders · 16/11/2014 at 20:21

    I believe Rd1 starts April 2 this year, delayed start this year. I think because of the cricket.

WombatsFC · 16/11/2014 at 20:56

Thanks Barsoil but I can't hold 'til April

How about NAB isn't that January or Early Feb?

Any intraclub games scheduled soon?

Does anybody know when Supercoach 2015 opens?

How about directions to a footy withdrawal clinic

jockreynolds · 16/11/2014 at 21:49

Hows the debut by Lostlarrikin! Up he comes and WHACK. Stunning first up Lost. Looking forward to watching Newnesy as he marches towards becoming a 200 game player for our club. No in SC at this price – but an out and out star on the rise

    lostlarrikin · 16/11/2014 at 23:45

    Cheers Jock, thanks for the opportunity.
    A phenomenal resource developing here to assist all comers.
    Love the summary page too, Gold!

Chicko · 16/11/2014 at 22:41

Losty dances down the pitch and cranks one back straight over the bowlers head! Outstanding mate, I can safely say Newnes was nowhere on my radar, he is now a firm watch. I think there will be more viable candidates elsewhere for the value but bloody hell you’ve given my bald noggin se food for thought. Thanks mate, a ripper to open with!

    throttlefinger · 16/11/2014 at 23:47

    Exactly, Chicko. Guy wasn't even near the coffee that's next to the radar. On watch list for sure. Any Defender with potential under $500K is worth keeping an eye on.

@TG_Footy_Tragic · 17/11/2014 at 10:17

Bloody beauty Lost!

Never even considered him before this, although, he is a bot pricey for an unproven…
I'm waiting for final positions and all that – but he's now on the ever-growing radar!
Majestic debut mate!

Tman · 24/11/2014 at 14:44

Great review Lost. Thats a steep rise in sc points last year. If he can hang onto his avg late last season. Then he will prove to be bargain.

Not sure I have the guts to start with him and to be honest if he does keep his form of last year. He will be too pricey to bring in later, me thinks.

Thanks for the review, throughly enjoyed it.

General Soreness · 15/12/2014 at 10:22

Confirmed Mid/Def at $464K

NumbatsFC · 04/01/2015 at 12:58

Hi LL.
I notice that Newnes is in a lot of the teams being posted in show us your team. I wasn't going to consider him but this article really pumps him up. You say that $436,000 is a lot for defender who has only had 1 full season and I agree, have you heard anything more about which role he will play?
I'm struggling to get a decent D1,2,3 and if Newnes is going to continue his form of 2014 his DPP makes him a possibility for D3. Is he likely to be given a tagging role? Who is StKildas taggers going to be this year? Thanks.

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