2014 was a career best – but was it an aberration?
Make no mistake – 2014 was a career-defining year for Levi Greenwood. He started 2014 missing out on round 1 – not even named in the emergencies; but managed to break into the side in round 2 as starting sub. Late in the 3rd quarter he made his 2014 debut; finding the pill 13 times by the final siren – for a solid 51 SC points in just over a quarter of footy. In round 3, he was given a position in the starting 18 – and immediately fired. Greenwood tore out 34 possessions at 76% DE, gathering 11 marks and 7 tackles for 119 SC points.
Rounds 4-7 saw some woeful DE and SC scores when he was played more as a defensive MID, akin to a tagging role. In this time, Greenwood had an average disposal efficiency of 54.5% and a colossal 18 clangers – to average 64.5 SC points. An absolute stain in the pantaloons of your SC team; his value bottomed out right on his bye week at $367k. If you had the sizeable nads to pick him here – you would have been laughing – considering at his bye, he averaged 71.3 and cracked the ton once with 4 sub 80 scores. After the bye was another story.
|Games last season:||19|
|Average last season:||94.2|
|100+ games last season:||9|
|Sub 80 games last season:||6|
|Price range last season:||$367K-$544K|
|Missed games last season:||3; RD 1 (Form), RD 20 (leg), RD 23 (Calf)|
|Significant history:||Averaged 92.17 in 2013 from 6 games
Averaged 45.6 in 2012 from 5 games
Equal runner up in North’s 2014 B&F
Drafted at pick 32 in the 2007 National draft.
Whatever Levi Greenwood did in his bye week off; I hope he replicates it in the 2015 offseason. For someone averaging a meagre 71.3; the 8 weeks that followed were nothing short of phenomenal. It went: 119, 137, 107, 101, 106, 134, 75 and 140 – to average 115. If you grabbed Levi at the end of round 8 and rode that wave – I salute you for your testicular fortitude and ridiculous intuition. I highly doubt anyone got on him then, but gee whiz, what a run!
Do I think Levi will up his average in 2015? Yes. Will he be worth 506k? (confirmed price $506,100) No. Why?
North Melbourne was a pretty inconsistent team in 2014, but not as much as they were in 2013. Levi was the same, yes; he had a phenomenal run – in that time his average DE% was 72%, compared to 60% for his other games. He averaged 28.9 disposals; compared to 22. 6.5 marks; compared to 4.9 – BUT North had the likes of Swallow, Harvey, Cunnington, Wells (for a time), NDS and Gibson to take the pressure off him. The Pies will have Pendles and Steele “The Flanking Glute” Sidebottom (Bloody ripper nickname lostlarrakin!) above him… Not to mention, my beloved pies will more than likely finish bottom 6.
Surprisingly – wins and losses had little bearing on his SC scores, He averaged 97 in wins; compared to 89 in losses. One thing of note; Levi did play in a high-disposal-getting team in 2014 (North ranked 6th in total disposals) whereas the Pies ranked 14. Will his disposal averages be lower? Will the Pies play him as a tagger with “Caff” down for a year? When he played as a defensive mid – rounds 4-7; his output was nothing short of a hemorrhoid in one’s anus.
Possible tagging\Defensive Mid role.
Premium spend on an unproven player.
If you were to bring Levi in – It would be as an M7-8 upgrade when his price inevitably dips – but there are better options out there.
- Contested possession getter.
- Kicked more than handballed.
- Averaged almost 4 clearances a game.
- Pretty much guaranteed a game. Mature body in a young team.
- Efficiency was a little on the low side. 65% DE average.
- When utilized in a defensive role, his output was crap. Averaged 64.5 in the defensive role.
- Clanger king. Ranked 13th overall for average clangers (3.4). 8TH in overall clangers (74)
I just can’t justify such a premium spend on such a massive unknown. What will his role in 2015 be? What will the Pies’ team structure be? Will he fare as well in a lower ranked team? Too many question marks to warrant such a big spend. Yes, he has potential; but I’d rather spend 500k on a safer pick. Wines and Heppell spring to mind.
I think he may be able to nudge a 100 average, but at his inflated price; he’s not worth a starting berth. Watch his early season form and pounce if he becomes a value pick.
Sorry Levi, the Pies paid overs for you – but I definitely won’t pay overs for you in SoapOnARope in 2015.
|This article has been penned by an elite Supercoach analyst hand picked from the talent pool of the Jock Reynolds Fantasy Footy Community. He has stood up within our community as a man of fantasy substance, and has displayed the spirit of togetherness, positivity and community that we value significantly.|