2014 was a career best – but was it an aberration?

TG Footy Tracgic - DexterMake no mistake – 2014 was a career-defining year for Levi Greenwood. He started 2014 missing out on round 1 – not even named in the emergencies; but managed to break into the side in round 2 as starting sub. Late in the 3rd quarter he made his 2014 debut; finding the pill 13 times by the final siren – for a solid 51 SC points in just over a quarter of footy. In round 3, he was given a position in the starting 18 – and immediately fired. Greenwood tore out 34 possessions at 76% DE, gathering 11 marks and 7 tackles for 119 SC points.

Rounds 4-7 saw some woeful DE and SC scores when he was played more as a defensive MID, akin to a tagging role. In this time, Greenwood had an average disposal efficiency of 54.5% and a colossal 18 clangers – to average 64.5 SC points. An absolute stain in the pantaloons of your SC team; his value bottomed out right on his bye week at $367k. If you had the sizeable nads to pick him here – you would have been laughing – considering at his bye, he averaged 71.3 and cracked the ton once with 4 sub 80 scores. After the bye was another story.

2015 Price: $506,100
2015 Position: MID
Games last season: 19
Average last season: 94.2
100+ games last season: 9
Sub 80 games last season: 6
Price range last season: $367K-$544K
Missed games last season: 3; RD 1 (Form), RD 20 (leg), RD 23 (Calf)
Significant history: Averaged 92.17 in 2013 from 6 games
Averaged 45.6 in 2012 from 5 games
Equal runner up in North’s 2014 B&F
Drafted at pick 32 in the 2007 National draft.

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Whatever Levi Greenwood did in his bye week off; I hope he replicates it in the 2015 offseason. For someone averaging a meagre 71.3; the 8 weeks that followed were nothing short of phenomenal. It went: 119, 137, 107, 101, 106, 134, 75 and 140 – to average 115. If you grabbed Levi at the end of round 8 and rode that wave – I salute you for your testicular fortitude and ridiculous intuition. I highly doubt anyone got on him then, but gee whiz, what a run!

Do I think Levi will up his average in 2015? Yes. Will he be worth 506k? (confirmed price $506,100) No. Why?

North Melbourne was a pretty inconsistent team in 2014, but not as much as they were in 2013. Levi was the same, yes; he had a phenomenal run – in that time his average DE% was 72%, compared to 60% for his other games. He averaged 28.9 disposals; compared to 22. 6.5 marks; compared to 4.9 – BUT North had the likes of Swallow, Harvey, Cunnington, Wells (for a time), NDS and Gibson to take the pressure off him. The Pies will have Pendles and Steele “The Flanking Glute” Sidebottom (Bloody ripper nickname lostlarrakin!) above him… Not to mention, my beloved pies will more than likely finish bottom 6.

Surprisingly – wins and losses had little bearing on his SC scores, He averaged 97 in wins; compared to 89 in losses. One thing of note; Levi did play in a high-disposal-getting team in 2014 (North ranked 6th in total disposals) whereas the Pies ranked 14. Will his disposal averages be lower? Will the Pies play him as a tagger with “Caff” down for a year? When he played as a defensive mid – rounds 4-7; his output was nothing short of a hemorrhoid in one’s anus.

RISK FACTORS

Possible tagging\Defensive Mid role.
Premium spend on an unproven player.

SELECTION PURPOSE

If you were to bring Levi in – It would be as an M7-8 upgrade when his price inevitably dips – but there are better options out there.

THE GOOD

  • Contested possession getter.
  • Kicked more than handballed.
  • Averaged almost 4 clearances a game.
  • Pretty much guaranteed a game. Mature body in a young team.

THE DOWNSIDE

  • Efficiency was a little on the low side. 65% DE average.
  • When utilized in a defensive role, his output was crap. Averaged 64.5 in the defensive role.
  • Clanger king. Ranked 13th overall for average clangers (3.4). 8TH in overall clangers (74)

THE VERDICT

I just can’t justify such a premium spend on such a massive unknown. What will his role in 2015 be? What will the Pies’ team structure be? Will he fare as well in a lower ranked team? Too many question marks to warrant such a big spend. Yes, he has potential; but I’d rather spend 500k on a safer pick. Wines and Heppell spring to mind.

I think he may be able to nudge a 100 average, but at his inflated price; he’s not worth a starting berth. Watch his early season form and pounce if he becomes a value pick.

Sorry Levi, the Pies paid overs for you – but I definitely won’t pay overs for you in SoapOnARope in 2015.

NO

Dexter

Twitter: @TG_Footy_Tragic

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29 Comments

Barwick's Soilders · 15/11/2014 at 06:39

Great work Dex, very nice analysis. Agree with you in he won't be starting in my team in2015, but I will watch him, maybe mid season if he has value like this year. I brought him after rd10 this year but agree with your stats about the disposal number by the teams will be hard for him to get 25+ disposal games.

Itchy Nuts Pieman · 15/11/2014 at 07:12

Excellent analysis as always Dex. Cant help but agree with every word. It will be a bit sit & take a look for me. Complete uncertainty about his role & a hefty price. Personally I’m more excited by what Crispy might bring to the table. Jock & Higgo are right, Norf cashed him in for max value. Ball & Beams moving on the stars aligned. An almost certain no for mine as well. Brilliant piece Dex. Keep up the great work.

General Soreness · 15/11/2014 at 07:27

Brilliant analysis and write up Dex. 100% agree with everything right the way down to the NO! I’m Also with INP re Crispy, also one very watchful eye on Freeman. Reports yesterday that Caff may be right round 1.

    Itchy Nuts Pieman · 15/11/2014 at 07:49

    Have to love the look of Freeman General. He looks built & super fit. If his body holds up & he’s named in round 1 he will be tough to pass up. Macaffer for round 1 That has to be a long shot. Defensive tagger is a very physical role.

      General Soreness · 16/11/2014 at 06:43

      I reckon they are salivating over Freeman at Pieland, has started the preseason with a Bang. I hope the kids body holds up and we see what he can do.

    Seaford Scouse · 20/11/2014 at 13:04

    Great write-up Dex! Complete sold as a no for me in starting and would take something special for me to garner interest through the season also. Think he will definitely play the tag role with the caffs injury troubles. Pies also in rebuild stage with a lot of youth coming through which may mean a drop down the ladder which may also impact his SC output.

    Would be great to see an article on freeman though, discounted Rd 1 pick, think him and scharenberg were the only top 10 picks not to play last year so great value. Also won the 2km time trial to kick off the pies pre-season, think he will be a lock for me if pre-season continues to go well for him and he’s named rd1

Dools · 15/11/2014 at 09:10

Excellent write up Dex packed with info and analysis.
He is a definite watch and see what role he gets and how he assimilates the game plan.
No from me but lets see how he goes.

throttlefinger · 15/11/2014 at 09:14

Superb review, Dex. Someone I had my eye on during the latter point of the season (who didn't), but didn't know how he would carry over at the Pies. And that is the issue, as you so expertly pointed out. And he may be like last season…stumble out of the block then turn it on after the byes after the Pies decide they need him to do more. All in all, that's the best I can see out of him from an SC standpoint.

throttlefinger · 15/11/2014 at 09:15

On a somewhat related note Dex, what do you make of the talk of Elliot wanting to play more midfield?

    Itchy Nuts Pieman · 15/11/2014 at 09:37

    Pricked my ears up to throts. Wonder if he’s got the tank. Beams leaves a gaping hole. He could be one of the boys to fill it. He’s got some talent. More mid time also means more points. Definitely that’s a watch this space.

      throttlefinger · 15/11/2014 at 09:49

      I like Elliot. But same concern. Hard to go from forward to midfield.

      Here's the article: http://goo.gl/Xp4feI

        Itchy Nuts Pieman · 15/11/2014 at 11:13

        True dat throts. But he’s got some serious talent

    General Soreness · 16/11/2014 at 06:45

    I think they had Thomas earmarked but he is injured again. I don’t see Elliott going through too much unless he rolls in and out with swanny from the forward line.

Phat Phuc · 15/11/2014 at 09:39

Thanks Dexter you saved me from doing any actual research on this bloke. I reckon the mudpies need a couple of new mids for 2015 but like you say they also need a new tagger
I'll watch him in the NAB and see if he's the new Macaffer or the new beams.

Phat Phuc · 15/11/2014 at 10:03

Hey Dexter I gave it a bit more thought and I'm wondering whether the Pies might have picked this bloke up as a lock for their VFL team and injury cover for the real stuff?
I also think that Taylor Adams might be higher up the order than Levi in a pies team building for the future.

Only 1 Levi on my radar for 2015 and this isn't him

    lostlarrikin · 15/11/2014 at 14:37

    I think Strauss got delisted PP 🙂

Phil · 15/11/2014 at 11:44

What I love about this site (apart from the great comments) is the stats u guys provide and one stat that stands out for me is his highest scores for the year. Even during his purple patch he only managed a 140, not bad, but not good enough to justify a starting spot in my midfield. Unless if he can lift his ceiling, I don't see that much upside to him to be honest. Maybe 100-105 at best. When you've got for example, Griffen priced similarly, yet capable of pushing out 180s, there's much more upside to him if he can get fit.

jockreynolds · 15/11/2014 at 13:33

Lovely comments above Phil – the thing I'm most proud of is the PEOPLE around this place – and you are adding to that Phil. Appreciate it mate.

While I'd say he's less than likely to start in JR Brumby FC – I wont whack a line through the Acidwash just yet. I would love to know the Pies designs on him for 2015 and feel he's priced quite well. As Phil notes – he's ceiling was only 140 – but bear in mind 2014 was his first year of significance. With another preseason and increased confidence he'll break that at some stage in 2015.

Needless to say Dex – thanks for another great write up son. I reckon The Wash is an interesting prospect

MASO · 15/11/2014 at 14:32

Great work mate and spot on , NO for me

lostlarrikin · 15/11/2014 at 14:44

Thanks Dex, great read!
Yeah too much uncertainty around that Pie midfield to entertain Greenwood at this price.
My eyes are actually glancing in the other direction, at what Levi left behind in the Roos' engine room…

Rosco · 15/11/2014 at 16:27

Dex, you finished 22 odd? (correct me if I'm wrong) in 2014. What have been your other ranking positions in the last three years?

@TG_Footy_Tragic · 15/11/2014 at 17:55

Thanks guys, was interesting researching him.

Who knows what Bucks wants to do with him. although i highly doubt he was bought to fill a VFL post.

I think Elliott is a better prospect up forward. Not in the guts. but that's me.

I finished 52 in 2014, and 1761 in 2013. in 2012 i got 1900 odd.

Hopefully 2015 yields a better finish.

    lostlarrikin · 15/11/2014 at 19:02

    Those are some seriously respectable numbers Dex.
    Nothing to sneeze at.

    throttlefinger · 16/11/2014 at 00:27

    Yeah, that's impressive results, Dex. Hope I can follow that sort of progression.

Rosco · 15/11/2014 at 19:30

Thanks for answering my query Dex. Very tidy results the past three years. Respect mate. You are a Supercoach gun. I finished 144 last year, top 3000 in 2013 and top 5000 in 2012 (sorry can't remember the exact positions) but I was 7th overall for a couple of weeks in 2012. Good luck in 2015. You obviously know your shit.

    @TG_Footy_Tragic · 15/11/2014 at 19:41

    Cheers Rosco 🙂

    Top work for 2014 mate! Even your past few years have been good!

    Been in this caper 5, going on 6 years. first few were terrible! haha

    All i put it down to is 80% reseacrh. 20% luck… although sometimes you wonder why you bother!

      Creeker · 15/11/2014 at 20:03

      Strewth Dex ! Some excellent numbers there.
      Sensational preview. Well researched.
      I like Greenwood but think I'd prefer to take a punt with Swanny or Jack Steven for 40k less. It's a no for me.

      We must of had some similar teams in the past.
      2014. 57th.
      2013. 1425th. backline killed me in the finish. (Heppell, Scotland, Goodes.)
      2012. 778th.
      Been in this caper for awhile. I remember back in the mid 90's, the Australian newspaper ran a fantasy footy comp. You had to post your trades to them each week. lol.
      Diesel and Buckets Loewe were the first two picked each year.

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