2015’s Marc Murphy?

MasoWe are always looking for a bargain on a premium output player like Murphy and Beams were in 2014 and after an injury riddled season in 2014 Jack Steven could just be that bargain we are looking for.

Averaging 25 disposals, 9.75 contested possessions, 5 clearances, 4.3 tackles over the last 2 seasons we find this hard nut (funnily enough he has an allergy to nuts) at a tasty price going into the 2015 season.

Pretty sure Jock is firming up reading the title of this one and I will keep it short and sweet so he doesn’t get too carried away.

2015 Price: $455,00
2015 Position: MID
Games last season: 17
Average last season: 84.8
100+ games last season: 5
Sub 80 games last season: 6
Price range last season: $382K – $593K
Missed games last season: 6
Significant history: It would seem Jack had his break out year in 2013 improving his average from 2012 by a whopping 20 points a game.

CLICK HERE FOR ALL OF OUR SUPERCOACH 2015 PLAYER PREVIEWS

 

Image 1

This is great news for us because we know the kid can produce at a high standard for a full season when fully fit. 2014 was a setback for his development as a footballer but as a Supercoach premium for 2015 it’s a gift straight from those pesky GODS we all curse at some point during the season.

The stress fracture to his sesamoid bone suffered during the pre-season delayed his start to 2014 and hampered his output throughout the season.

Risk Factor

With Montagna the only other danger in the midfield Jack Steven could find himself carrying an opposition player on his back more often than not. That’s not to say the Saints don’t have a great bunch of young midfielders – just not ones teams would tag just yet.

Selection Purpose

You’d select Jack the same as we did Murphy – either a season keeper at M 6-8 or a stepping stone to a Super Premo after the byes.

The Good

  • Loves it in close but has speed to damage on the outside as well
  • Rock solid top line club midfielder
  • Has room to improve on his TOG. Averaged 78% last 2 seasons the Elite guys are up around 86%
  • Has high ceiling with 3 games 150+ in 2013

The Downside

  • Saints will lose more than they win (sorry saints fans) and as we know more often than not the team who wins takes bigger chunk of the SC spoils
  • Not sure how he will go carrying around taggers all day.
  • Pretty tough 1st 5 weeks GWS, GCS, COLL, CAR, ESS
  • Shares the bye with the likes of Ablett, Pendles, Watson, JPK

Verdict

Looking for value for output Jack would be a solid pick in my opinion. Before the draw was released I had him LOCKED IN, but with the round 12 bye I’m not so sure anymore. Just means another from that round could have to wait until after the bye to make their way into The Muppets.

Yea, nah, maybe

What are your thoughts Jack Steven in Supercoach 2015?

Maso

Twitter: @maso_78 

 BECOME A JOCK MEMBER – EXTENDED LENGTH MONTHLY PODCASTS

AFL Supercoach Legend Jock ReynoldsThis article has been penned by an elite Supercoach analyst hand picked from the talent pool of the Jock Reynolds Fantasy Footy Community. He has stood up within our community as a man of fantasy substance, and has displayed the spirit of togetherness, positivity and community that we value significantly.


40 Comments

Barwick's Soilders · 11/11/2014 at 07:13

Great one Maso. I think he will be tagged no doubt but im really not sure about him. On Watch list but as you pointed out not a real good bye for him.

    throttlefinger · 11/11/2014 at 07:18

    Killer breakdown, Maso. He's a definite no for me. Wooden spoon team and he'll still get the harder tag. Not a good recipe for SC.

Mark Fletcher · 11/11/2014 at 07:16

Must say, I'm not sure the use of the "March Murphy" analogy is a correct one. The basis on selection of Marc Murphy in 2014 was the fact that he had consistently been a 110 avg player for the previous 4-5 years, and his poor form / injury ridden season in 2013 meant that he was a very likely candidate to replicate his past history.

Steven, on the other hand, is an unproven scorer, with 2013 potentially being a "spike" year. He sucked a lot of people into picking him this year, and I'd suspect he'll suck many more in for 2015. Yes, he can also have his 2014 season classified as "injury ridden", but it'd be a brave man to fill one of those elite MID spots in their team with an as yet unproven, inconsistent player.

General Soreness · 11/11/2014 at 09:00

Solid work Maso. A definite no from me as a starter as I am looking for consistency as well as durability, but could be a post bye upgrade if his form warrants it. Have to agree with Fletch, MM was a consistent performer at a discount, Jack Steven still to prove that he is better than a mid 80's player.

    throttlefinger · 11/11/2014 at 09:36

    His best year is a bit of a mirage as he had Nicky D taking most of the heat. Last year it got reals and his scores showed. Big talent but big question mark.

Itchy Nuts Pieman · 11/11/2014 at 10:13

Nice work Maso. Not a path i would be looking to go down. Serious potential but trying to pick these break out players is a tough gig. Agree with Throts that it was no coincidence when NDS walked his scoring dropped off.

@TG_Footy_Tragic · 11/11/2014 at 10:42

Maso,

I'm gonna put my SC balls on the line and say; I'm seriously considering him.
He really stood up in 2013, yes, NDS was there – but I can see some bull in him and think he could at the very least generate some $ for an upgrade.
If you're looking to go the top 3 MIDs, you'll need to consider like Stevens to be in.

He's very high on my watch-list. For 450k, and his potential, I'm pretty keen.

lostlarrikin · 11/11/2014 at 12:10

Yeah I'm with you Dex.
The departure of Lenny means there are some serious points up for grabs and they wont all get swallowed up by the opposing team.
Granted that there are a swag of young mids pushing for gametime but they will need Steven to pick up where he left off in 2013.
Main competition for points will come from Joey, Armitage and Newnes (preview in the pipeline).
Armitage is a curly one as he has attracted the tag in the past. Was injury affected in 2014 but finished season pretty strong.
40/60, though bye structure may dictate if he is a keeper or stepping stone.

    Dools · 11/11/2014 at 16:51

    The points you both make is extremely important Dex and Lost,
    I'm 90/10, He is a definite high priority for my SC Team
    "During 2013 Steven established himself as one of the AFL's most elite emerging young midfielders. His explosive pace and ferociousness at the contest culminated in a career best season in which he won the 2013 Trevor Barker Award for St Kilda's best and fairest player"
    Apparently They hand them out to anyone…NOT
    He is a product of the Geelong Falcons went pick 42 round 3 back in 2007 (Just as a highlite Kruzer went no 1 ,The Crotch went 2, Dangermouse went 10, Rioli was 12)
    What has got me excited about this bloke is he played 17 missed a few at the start but he played (in pain methinks) I'm on board as The Good Ship "Stanley" Cheap , Capable, Competitive and in the right afge bracket to "WoooosssKaaaa!!!!"
    I will leave you with this …
    "No, you can't always get what you want
    No, you can't always get what you want
    But if you try sometime, you just might find
    You get what you need!!!!"
    "To the fridge!!"

lostlarrikin · 11/11/2014 at 17:05

Ahh the WoooosssKaaa!
Havent heard that for a while.
Noice

Dools · 11/11/2014 at 17:12

G'day Lost
If the argument was losing side less points who the hell would have picked GAJ!!!!!
I had to go to some community sponsored night class's to get that "WoooosssKaaa!" just right but I now hold a certificate entitling me to "WoooosssKaaa!" when ever the circumstance warrants LOL

    MASO · 11/11/2014 at 18:09

    true but come on Stevo is NO GAJ !!

      Dools · 11/11/2014 at 18:25

      G'day Maso Loved the review and I meant to say it in previous posts but got excited at the prospect of K Stevens'
      Very true but in continuation of the same argument regarding GAJ why last season would you have Beams, Dangermouse, Sloneranger, or Peirce Hanley etc etc
      I agree that there is only GAJ but on the flip side there is only one K. Stevens playing for the Saints

        MASO · 11/11/2014 at 18:31

        agree dools 🙂 nroo, montagna and petrecca only ones to take points of him you would think ? maybe dunstan as well

          Dools · 11/11/2014 at 19:13

          Petracca is going to be interesting if he gets there mate but I will watch him pre-season where ever he lands. As for Nroo, Montagne and Dunstan I see them adding to the mix not subtracting which is why I'm keen on Jack this season.

@Da_Mad_Irishman · 11/11/2014 at 17:39

Jack Steven is a LOCK for the Mayhem in 2015.

I'm actually surprised that a more general consensus in the comments is not more positive in selecting him.

I think people underestimate the importance of a full preseason for players. The fracture prevented him from any running in March and most of April in 2014. He then comes back in under cooked and the Saints took the approach to get games back into him to build that fitness which made perfect sense. They are developing and Jack is still considered to be that developing group, so the more games they could get into the better. Just when he was building fitness and form, putting good scores together he suffered a thigh soreness for two games before missing 2 weeks with a minor tear in the thigh.

If i see him fully fit after completing a full preseason he is a LOCK. Worst case I can't see a fully fit Jack Steven averaging less than 100. In that case he stays with me until the byes.

When I seen he was a round 12 bye I was a little put off but the more I think of it less I am phased. I will also have Ablett, Pendles and Fyfe from this round but on the positive it just means I will more likely use Jack as a stepping stone to a Rockliff or Beams from the round 11 bye.

Quality write up Maso

    MASO · 11/11/2014 at 18:08

    Thanks mick and i agree 100 average is not out reach which still makes him a bargain priced at 85 , not Locking him in but defiantly in contention can fill in for ablett if he has delayed start to season ;-p

    lostlarrikin · 11/11/2014 at 19:26

    My reservations are more related to mid structure and the competing prospects around that $400-450K zone.
    The likes of Scooter, Caddy and Hill are all tempting me in this range.
    Throw in a bargain basement RIch and VB (looking fwd to these previews) and it starts looking crowded. Seriously though, cant have em all so will see what pre season holds.

    Yeah btw nice piece Maso.

      Dools · 11/11/2014 at 19:40

      I think Caddy requires a serious look this season Lost lets see his DPP eligibility and Price $$$$ maybe Rich maybe not but I think there are bargains out there still

Dools · 11/11/2014 at 17:56

Wow!!!!
Nice to hear from you mate and I'm glad you are backing him in, I'm on the right path.
This "WoooosssKaaa!" thing is Awesome Mick!!! Have you got that course too???? LOL

jockreynolds · 11/11/2014 at 20:12

Jack Steven. I can't describe how much I'm looking forward to the petals of his fantasy flower opening up over the coming half a decade.

As with Dexter, Lost, Mick, Dools – I think you MUST at the very least consider him in 2015 community. Yep. He may well carry a regular tag. Yep. He's in a team who (..though we will rise like bloodthirst wolves over the next few years).. will likely finish bottom 8.

But $455K. But he's an out and out superstar. But he's capabale of delivering more that the 110avg we saw the year before last. But he didn't get a decent run at 2015.

Ignore at your peril community.

Fantastic discussion piece Maso

    throttlefinger · 11/11/2014 at 20:52

    So just to take the counterpoint, is all this based on 1 season against 3 other seasons that don't really support someone who can go 110?

    The price is good, no doubt there. But even in his banner 2013 he went sub 80 more than one would like. And that was without the heat of the tag.

    You all make compelling points making him worth considering. Yet it seems built more on enthusiasm for one season and hope he can do it again. His injuries were not insignificant and having two in one season could have an effect on him upstairs as well.

    You've convinced me Steven's is less of a risk…yet that he is still a risk.

      Barwick's Soilders · 11/11/2014 at 21:08

      I second that throttle, I’m not saying Steven isn’t a good SC prospect but too much of a risk for me, so the question is was 2013 a fluke or a taste of what he can do? For me too risky but we will see.

      Dools · 11/11/2014 at 21:54

      Hey TF,
      He is priced around the 80 points per week but is capable of a lot more, He had a year that demanded adjustment plus Nil Pre-season – Still turned out 80 AVG I sniff SC Player…

        Dools · 11/11/2014 at 21:56

        PS Keyboard Next G and Silent Slipper are very bullish on the lad

        throttlefinger · 11/11/2014 at 22:05

        He certainly is. And capable of duping last season's output. If for a better side, I'd be more inclined. Watch list for now, Dools.

          Dools · 11/11/2014 at 22:50

          That's all I want from you mate put him on the watchlist
          I 'm very bullish on D. Swan also as Keyboard and Next G will be upset but that's how I roll… lol

            throttlefinger · 11/11/2014 at 22:57

            Swan is a lock if he's DPP forward. Heavily considered if not.

            Like I told INP, Stevens may be that perfect bridge between your super prems and rooks.

      jockreynolds · 11/11/2014 at 22:13

      I love the way you're emerging in our game my good friend – great counterpoint. One thing I've learned in this caper is there are layers of significance in every fantasy football selection decision.

      There's the layer of pure fantasy point statistic history. As you majestically point out – Jacko's only shown us one seasons worth of premiumhood. One fart doesn't make a sparrows spring and on this layer alone you're correct – it would appear to be an overenthusiastic arousal.

      There's the layer of price v expected output. Conversatively – you'd expect Jack to average at the very bare bones least the approx 86 he's been priced at. I'd go in – depending on my structures – at least satisifed that there is little downward pressure on his buy in price… with a very real chance of a significant appreciation.

      And we have the reasoning behind his reduced output in 2014. Very simply – you can't come into the caper half cocked these days, nor can you come into a season without a full preseason under your belt. And we know he came in as underdone as you like – you're never going to deliver at your full capacity.

      So we look at the trend up to that point season by season.. we see a steady trend building toward the 110 flagship season (66 in 2009, then 78, then 84, then 99, then the big 110 in 2013). There's a meaningful trend up till 2013 indicating a maturing midfielder working towards and entering premiumhood. You see last year as the blip justified by a terrible preseason.

      While I won't say he's locked in – I really believe that the community should at least look at him as an option.

        throttlefinger · 11/11/2014 at 22:27

        This is why I enjoy and (I'm not afraid to say) love this community so much. Very pointed, passionate and well-argued points that can help give your SC thinking more seasoning and depth.

        And, as I'm also learning, keeping an open mind to all possibilities I think is an important ingredient as well. Your arguments make the strong case that the risk is low and the reward is high with Stevens. And opening with GWS, Suns and Pies should give a good chance to show his form for 2015.

        Stevens is now very high on my watch list. Given that I'm gonna go more prem heavy in my mids, he'll probably be heavily considered for R1 selection.

Creeker · 11/11/2014 at 21:19

Excellent work old mate Maso, you're a freak.
Jack Steven is very high on my watchlist. No pre season, he was behind the 8 ball before he started this year.
I have no doubt he can find the pill and with a full pre season up his sleeve, he should be good value at 455k, and should improve his numbers.
My only issue is that there is another player who should be around the same price. Also played with injury this year and shares the same bye round next season.
Can only pick one.
Oink, Oink. Yep, Swanny was forced forward this year, played injured and there's no Beams there next year.
Risky, but will be monitoring both closely.

Looking forward to taking on The Muppets again next year !

Kev · 11/11/2014 at 21:20

His last 12 games in 2013 – 89, 99, 99, 106 (tagged by armfield) 127, 161, 113, 98 (tagged by raines), 100, 116, 119, 157 (v Crowley!) = 115 ave. Dead set have to sit up and take notice at that.

If he looks fit and healthy pre season he's a massive lock. Knows how to find and extract the pill, and when he does large is goes LARGE. Tough to put a tag the inside guys.

    throttlefinger · 11/11/2014 at 21:27

    No doubt he has the ability, Kev. But the 157 vs Fremantle is a bit misleading as that was a R23 game that Ross rested all the players for the finals and the Saints won, so ol' Crowley probably wasn't going full bore (hell, NDS had 133).

    He's a wait and see how he comes out. Round 3 at best.

      Itchy Nuts Pieman · 11/11/2014 at 22:31

      Agreed throttle. A corrective perhaps. But it seems too much risk to award him a starting 22. I’m trying to minimise risk with heaps of risk!

        throttlefinger · 11/11/2014 at 22:45

        Warming up to him a bit, INP. Price could help bridge a nice gap between the elite prems and rooks. Risk vs. reward seems to favor the latter. See how he comes out, yet starting games against GWS and the Suns could make him an easy road to a tasty upgrade. Went from No to Considering.

          Itchy Nuts Pieman · 11/11/2014 at 23:22

          I went from a certain no this morning to having read all this & mild arousel. He's on the watchlist now. But that's as far as i'm willing to go. Some hell ass salesman on this site Throts! And I love it

            throttlefinger · 12/11/2014 at 00:30

            Haha! Me too, Pieman. Mild arousal state myself.

Donavan · 11/11/2014 at 22:33

Great write-up, and comments from the community.

Steven's is a yes for me, so long as he shows some form in the pre-season competition.

He is well priced, with a decent SC ceiling, he is a risk, but other than the elite premiums they are all a risk.

Not sure about the tough start – GWS, GCS, COLL, CAR, ESS, yes these teams all finished above the saints in 2014, but it is hardly a tough start, when there are no top sides in the first 5 rounds.

    throttlefinger · 11/11/2014 at 23:11

    Would say that start is pretty sensible. Only one finals team in the bunch. If Jacko can't show us the goods then, he might not be seeing a 110 average this season.

General Soreness · 15/12/2014 at 10:23

Confirmed Mid only @ $491K

Comments are closed.