ACL derailed 2013, impacted 2014. Will 2015 be the making of the man – or BURNMAN?
“Tex” Walker. Make no mistake – he is a beast. From debut through 2011; Tex was a so-so player at best. Enter 2012. Tex recorded a career best season. He almost doubled his previous best season goal haul, booting 63 in 2012 when his previous best was 35 – set in 2010. Tex only played 15 games in 2014, after being out for about 14 months recovering from an ACL injury which was sustained early in the 2013 season. From his 15 games in 2014 Tex booted 34 goals at 60.7% accuracy – his worst since 2010.
A change of coach and a few pre-seasons under his belt seemed to do wonders for Tex in 2012. He exploded out of the blocks – with 4 tons and 1 sub 80 score in his first 7 games; to average 95 (Can he mimic this in 2015). Of his 16 games in 2012, he broke the ton 10 times, and had only 3 sub 80 scores; averaging 100.2. I feel this is a more accurate analysis of Tex’s potential for 2015 – as his 2013 season was cut short when he wrecked his ACL in RD 5, robbing him of the remainder of the year and half of 2014.
|Games last season:||15|
|Average last season:||80.1|
|100+ games last season:||2|
|Sub 80 games last season:||9|
|Price range last season:||$299k-$437k|
|Missed games last season:||7 (ACL)|
|Significant history:||Averaged 100.2 in 2012 (fit), 69.4 in 2013 (ACL Interrupted)
Suspended for 5 games in 2012.2 in RD 7 for rough tackling; 3 in RD14 for the same thing.
Drafted at pick 75 in the 2007 national draft
Most coaches will look at his 2014 season and write him off as a burn-man or an irrelevant player. I’m not. Look at his 2012 season. Uninterrupted preseason, new coach, Motivation & 10 tons from 16 outings. Tick. Can 2012 be a sign of things to come?
Now move to 2015. Tex seems to be over his ACL injury, there is another new coach, and I’ll bet; a burning desire to return to the highs of 2012 (hopefully without the suspensions!) Add another uninterrupted pre-season under his belt and he could return to relevance with a BANG!
One stat of note, Tex seems to score better in wins – although this is not always the case. In 2014, both of his tons came in wins, but so did 4 of his sub 80 scores. Tex averaged 91.13 in wins, and 67.43 in losses. If you see Adelaide win more in 2015 – Could this spur you?
Another good thing of note is his time on ground. Since 2012, excluding injury-hit and sub-affected games, he averages 90.5% TOG. Since 2012, he has been subbed twice, once for his ACL injury, the other for a rest. For a key forward, he accumulates the pill nicely. Since 2012, excluding his ACL affected game; Tex averages 14.4 disposals – nothing to sneeze at.
In the same time, Tex averages a tick over 6 marks a game – 30% of these being Contested. Tex favors kicking – this I like. But what I don’t like is his efficiency. Averaging 64% for 2014 isn’t horrible, but too many of his possessions are either not effective, or turnovers. Tex averages 3.1 Clangers a game. That’s 12 points a game lost to errant possessions. If Tex can up his efficiency and convert a few more goals – he could go beast again.
I’m wary of his inability to play a full season. The most games Tex has strung together in a single season is 19 (2012). In his first few years, fluctuating form saw Tex be dropped a few times and string together games at SANFL level. He missed 5 games in 2012 due to suspensions, and 2013/14 saw him miss 24 games due to his injury.
Can Tex play a full season in 2015?
- Key position forward – fluctuating scored.
- Misses games.To both injury and suspension.
- Clanger-King. 27% DE RD 12 2014. 6 clangers RD 19 2014.
- New Coach is an unknown factor. Could be good, could be bad.
If you were considering starting Tex it would be as a stepping stone player.
The only reason you would pick Tex, is hoping he starts 2015 with a BANG and quickly cash him in or upgrade him to a more consistent performer. Could he do a Nick Riewoldt a-la-2014?
- Can go LARGE – in 2012 he had 10 tons – High of 154. (146,133 in 2014)
- Loves to kick. 66.6% of his disposals since 2012 being kicks.
- Potential Point of Difference. I don’t think many will run ol’ Tex, due to his 2014 form.
- New coach – Omen for 2015? 2012 worked good for him!
- Key position forward. Enough said.
- Hasn’t played a full season yet. Suspension and injury risk.
- New coach – unknown game plan. Will it affect delivery?
You may only need 5 games out of Tex, and BANG – trade him up to a premium or down to a bubble boy for an instant cash generation. If you see Adelaide win more of their pre-bye games than lose, he could be your man – as stated above, he does better in wins.
Interesting situation here; Adelaide have a new coach. I state this as a good and bad factor – because a new coach is an unknown factor, but Tex’s best year also came from a new coach!
Tex has had premium output before (100 avg 2012) – but also had an ordinary 2014. Right now – Tex is a no. But an injury free and dominant pre-season could sway me. 2015 structure will be the key.
Do you go an underpriced Swan and Tex instead of a gun like Parker and a rookie?
We won’t know our structure until prices and rookies are finalized. Will rookies be overpriced in 2015 like 2014? Or will they return to the cheap ways of the past?
A few things need to align for me to consider Tex Walker:
1. 2015 structure
2. Rookie Pricing
If all three of these fall the right way, I may well select Tex in SoapOnARope in 2015. Right now though – it’s a….
This article has been penned by an elite Supercoach analyst hand picked from the talent pool of the Jock Reynolds Fantasy Footy Community. He has stood up within our community as a man of fantasy substance, and has displayed the spirit of togetherness, positivity and community that we value significantly.