Supercoach 2015 – Dane Swan
Is Dane Swan still Supercoach relevant?
At his best – yes; Swan is one of the top-of-the-line GUNS of Supercoach. Was Swan at his best in 2014? No. Will Swan return to his Super Elite ways of 2009-2013? Let’s find out.
Usually, Swan plays most of his game in the middle and resting in the forward or on the bench. This year was a different story. It’s well documented how he struggled with his wrists and the offseason surgery that followed; but was that the reason for his ordinary year? Swan did play in a “transitional” Collingwood side and some would argue he should have had more time in the guts as an experienced body.
My initial thoughts: an interrupted pre-season and niggling injury prevented his season from taking off.
|Games last season:||17|
|Average last season:||86.41|
|100+ games last season:||3|
|Sub 80 games last season:||7|
|Price range last season:||$388K-$632K|
|Missed games last season:||5 (Foot, Hammy), RD 11 (foot), RD 18-20 (Foot), RD 23 (Hammy)|
|Significant history:||Averaged 117.27 in 2013; 126.22 in 2012; 121.95 in 2011; 126.86 in 2010; 123.23 in 2009Suspended for 2 games in 2012; for drinking in July of that year.Drafted at pick 58 in the 2001 national draft|
By his lofty standards, 2014 was a proverbial turd in his jocks. Down on form; this could be put down to a mix of an interrupted preseason and mid-season injury. His only “good” form came from rounds 4-6 where he averaged 127 over the 3 weeks. Take out these 3 weeks and his 2014 season average drops to a paltry 77.7.
Why was Dane Swan’s 2014 season a shadow of 2009-2013? His averages across the board were down. Startlingly; Swan averaged 1.5 centre clearances a game, compared to 2.4 in 2013; down a whopping 37%. There is a strong indication that Swan is being moved on from the midfield, and seems to be spending more time up forward.
Swan has shown that he is no mug in the forward line, and has a favourable 1-on-1-contest-win ratio. He is a deceptively quick player and can burn off his opponents. Who knows, a more permanent fwd position could lead to more goal and goal assists – neither of which hurt his SC scoring capacity. A permanent forward role would severely damage his scoring capacity, but a 50-50 or 40-60 split shouldn’t be as bad.
Recent news that Dayne Beams wishes to be traded to QLD could be significant. If Beams does leave the Pies; will Swan get more midfield time? He could. But being a team in transition; Buckley could use this to blood his young up-and-coming players like Kennedy, Thomas etc. I’d wager Swan will play a more permanent Forward role in 2015 – with bursts through the guts.
My only concern with Swan – is this year a preview to the further decline to come in 2015 or was 2014 an aberration? My theory: a little of both. His glory days are behind him; but he shouldn’t be as bad in 2015. Preseason will be the key. Where will Collingwood play him? If you’re considering him, watch his preseason closely.
- Wrong side of 30
- Injury risk – injuries killed 2014
- Generally misses 1-3 games a year (rests mostly)
If you are considering starting Swan; try to use him as a stepping stone to a safer player. With the exception of 2014 – Swan generally explodes out of the blocks. If you have the plums; you could use him to jump up to that premium you couldn’t quite afford at the start. Not a keeper.
- Ceiling. When Swan is on. HE IS ON. Can rip a team apart.
- High possession getter. Averaged 24.9 disposals in 2014 (his lowest since 2008) – his previous 5 years he averaged 31.9 disposals.
- Kicker. More than 61% of his disposals are kicks.
- Potential DPP – Do we risk a cheap Dane Swan if he is Dual Position?
- 2014 was a horrible year. Sign of decline?
- Efficiency could be higher. 62% efficiency for 2014 wasn’t horrible, but a higher efficiency will go a long way to a better SC score!
- Wrong side of 30, history with injuries and resting. Missed 5 games in 2014.
The 2015 offseason will be the key to see what Bucks does with him, and if he gets a full pre-season into himself. A few things need to go right for me to consider him in my side.
- Swan becomes a MID/FWD in 2015.
- Swan has an injury free Preseason – A full preseason goes a long way to get the K’s into the legs for a big year.
- Match simulation and preseason training indicated he’ll play more Midfield than Forward.
I’d seriously consider a berth in my side. At this stage; Swan misses selection in SoapOnARope for 2015, but he is definitely firm on my radar.
|THE 2015 SUPERCOACH OFF SEASON SERIES.
This article has been penned by an elite Supercoach analyst hand picked from the talent pool of the Jock Reynolds Fantasy Footy Community. He has stood up within our community as a man of fantasy substance, and has displayed the spirit of togetherness, positivity and community that we value significantly.