Flesh for Fantasy – Finals, Week 1
After 17 rounds of blood, sweat and tears, here we are. For those who unfortunately missed out on the finals, bad luck. Enjoy the offseason and prepare for 2015. While for those playing August footy, your season has only just begun.
I’ll leave the motivation to these blokes who know a thing or two about success.
So, let’s begin.
GET HIM IN
Jarryd Roughead (HAW) FWD – $463,800 SC
- Next 4 Games: MELB (H), FRE (A), GEE (H), COLL (A)
- Recent Scores: 83, 68, 120, 125
- Breakeven: 33
$463,800 and Melbourne to come in the first week of finals, JarrydRoughead is the bloke you can trade in to win you a final. His last two weeks have been extraordinary –6 goals and 15 touches v the Dogs, and 4 goals and 18 touches v Sydney playing one out in the goal square. This week poses an interesting situation with Jack Gunston out. Many glass half-empty SuperCoaches will say he’s a chance to be double-teamed now blah blah this and that, while glass half-fullers will say more ball directed to him. Either way, he will spend more time forward now and recent form as FF hasn’t been too bad. A chance to go big on a faltering Melbourne side, Roughy at that price could win you a final.
Brandon Ellis (RICH) MID – $502,900 SC
- Next 4 Games: ESS (H), ADEL (A), STK (H), SYD (A)
- Recent Scores: 107, 103, 98, 68, 142
- Breakeven: 92
Owned by 1.35% of teams, Brandon Ellis is your POD pick of the week. Playing mainly off half-back, Ellis has had a very underrated season statistically. The 68 is an outlier given how poor the conditions were against West Coast, but the rest of his season has been quite good – scoring higher than what $502,900 suggests. Playing teams around the mark in first two weeks before a potential day out in the prelim final v St Kilda makes Brandon Ellis a tempting option.
Brodie Smith (ADEL) DEF – $479,900 SC
- Next 4 Games: BRIS (A), RICH (H), NM (A), STK (H)
- Recent Scores: 81, 100, 144, 82
- Breakeven: 62
Another POD option, owned by only 5% of coaches, Brodie Smith, with a run home that includes Brisbane, Richmond and St Kilda, could be a match winner. His 2 goal, 28 disposal game against Collingwood a couple of weeks ago backed up a 34 touches and a goal v Hawthorn so he has performed against two solid football sides. Brisbane away will be tough, but the prospect of St Kilda in the grand final makes Brodie Smith a good defensive option hitting a bit of form.
GET HIM OUT
Steve Johnson (GEE) MID – $565,100 SC
- Next 4 Games: FRE (H), CARL (A), HAW (H), BRIS (A)
- Recent Scores: 119, 135, 141, 61
- Breakeven: 137
One man could cost you a win – Ryan Crowley. While it was good news to hear that Stevie J will front up against his kryptonite this week, many were deep down hoping he’d be suspended to solve a sticky situation. As good as Stevie J is, do you go in with him, knowing full well he cannot handle the Crowley tag, or keep and ride this one out? It depends on your situation really. If you’re playing in cut throat elimination final, might be worth looking at trading him out for someone who will help win you through to the next week. If you’ve got the double chance, I reckon hold onto him given the form he is in. Really does depend on where you’re positioned going into week 1 of the finals, but yeah, take note – Ryan Crowley is Stevie J’s kryptonite.
Brendon Goddard (ESS) MID – $501,500 SC
- Next 4 Games: RICH (A), WCE (H), GC (H), CARL (A)
- Recent Scores: 101, 97, 68, 79
- Breakeven: 154
Since his suspension a couple of weeks ago, BJ’s form has somewhat been on the decline. Although, the roles in which Bomber has him playing doesn’t help. He played forward against the Dogs, which as expected, limited his output. Then the following week v Sydney played man on man vs Kennedy and was smashed – refusing to run with Kennedy at times. While it may be tough to trade out someone like BJ, until he returns to a settled role in the midfield, I think it may be time to say goodbye to BJif you’re in a cutthroat final
Here the key break-even scores to keep in mind heading into round 16:
- Brett Deledio (RICH) 67 BE
- Toby Greene (GWS) 63 BE
- Callan Ward (GWS) 99 BE
- Nick Riewoldt (STK) 15 BE
- Joel Selwood (GEE) 79 BE
- Mitch Duncan (GEE) 56 BE
- Stefan Martin (BRIS) 53 BE
- Pearce Hanley (BRIS) 36 BE
- JarrydRoughead (BRIS) 33 BE
- Ryan Griffen (WBD) 55 BE
- Hamish Hartlett (PORT) 62 BE
- Dayne Beams (COLL) 49 BE
- Marc Murphy (CARL) 120 BE
- Luke Parker (SYD) 130 BE
- Josh P Kennedy (SYD) 138 BE
- Brendon Goddard (ESS) 154 BE
- Sam Jacobs (ADEL) 132 BE
- Rory Sloane (ADEL) 140 BE
- Patrick Dangerfield (ADEL) 117 BE
- Steven Motlop (GEE) 144 BE
- Scott Pendlebury (COLL) 134 BE
All the best this weekend community.
The Countdown To Finals Has Begun: