Community, welcome to our round 13 Tight Arse Tuesday. Not going to delay today, so let’s get straight into it.
I covered forwards over the last couple of weeks but don’t think we can ignore some value options down back this week. The two guys I will look at are very similar in many ways and I suspect both may help our teams come home strong. The best thing is, they are both tight arse options and as you know by now, I do like a good bargain, especially down back.
Current Price $439,800
Priced to Average 86
For those of us not too familiar with Hanley, hewas signed by the Brisbane Lions in 2007coming from a solely Gaelic Football background playing as a junior with Ballaghaderreen GAA club in the heart of rural County Mayo. For those of you familiar with Game of Thrones, think wildlings from north of the wall. For those of you unfamiliar with Game of Thrones, seriously, why?
Hanley was put on the rookie list with a view of converting him to Australian rules footballer, and after he made great progress adapting to the game he made his debut in 2008. He was then drafted by the Lions in 2009 with the bargain pick of 95 in the national draft. I’m sure we all know by now that he is an AFL convert, as I can’t remember a Brisbane Lions game I’ve watched where Bruce McAvaney hasn’t made reference to that fact, and how good a player he is for someone who hasn’t grown up playing the game. We know Bruce!
From a Supercoach stand point we have seen some very positive developments since his first full season in the Lions best 22, increasing his average every year going into 2014, with a high of 95.7 in 2013.
So far this year he has only averaged 89.9 but what we must remember is there have been some mitigating circumstances. If we take a look at his performances this year it will be a little easier to understand the drop off in average from last year to this.
He actually started the year really well and was averaging 109.6 after the first 3 games. Then things started to go wrong for Hanley and all those coaches who went into the season with him as one of their starting defenders. In round 4 against Port, Hanley came off in the 3rd quarter with a Hamstring strain, and subsequently missed the next game. He had a poor game on return in New Zealand against the Saints but it later transpired that he had a back complaint and he then missed the next game in round 7. Since then Hanley has been building form, along with his fellow teammates, with Brisbane winning 2 of their last 4 games and going down to narrow loss at home to Essendon in round 8. I think it is fair to say that the North Melbourne result is an anomaly as a fair chunk of their team were struck down by gastro before the game. In that period since his return from injury Hanley has averaged 94.75. If you take out his injury affected score in round 4, he would be averaging 96.7, much in line with what you would expect at the start of the year.
So how does Hanley score his points and is there anything we need to be wary of bringing him into our sides?
Hanley is very much an outside player. He has been averaging 15.5 and 15.2 uncontested possessions a game in 2013 and this year so far, which equates to approximately 70% of his possessions. It is his effective disposal and his kick to handball ratio that sees him score well in supercoach. When those numbers are high he will score well and when he adds a goal and a few tackles like he did over the weekend, that is when he jumps up into the elite defender bracket and pumps out supercoach tonnes.
The problem with outside players is that they tend to be a little easier to shut down. For all of you who owned Hanley last year, you will remember that he went through a patch were the opposition sent the heavy tag to him and completely nullified his impact on the game. In that period he had scores of 49 and 42 and had many coaches trading him out of their sides. Through a combination of him handling the tag better and not getting as much attention from taggers he did go on to pump out 4 more tonnes after this period and average a very respectable 93 over the last 9 games of the year.
I do think that period will help Hanley develop further and deal with the tags put on him over the course of the rest of this year. I’m not saying he will break through tags and score tonnes every week but I don’t expect any of those scores in the 40’s like he experienced last year. Encouragingly for Hanley too there are plenty of other Brisbane players in good form at the moment that would warrant a tag over him at this present time. Redden, Green, Zorko and even Beams may soon be on that list. Yes he may have some sub 80 scores on the run in but they will be offset by the scores we seen at the weekend, and if you’re willing to take the ups with the downs then Hanley is your man.
The Mad Irishman’s Verdict
2014 Predicted Status: Strong Midpricer
Predicted Average from here on out: 95-99pts
If I was looking to finish off my backline then Hanley presents a real good value pickup this week. I think he will easily be a top 10 defender and a perfect D5 or D6.
Current Price $437,600
Priced to Average 85
Shaw has been very relative in fantasy terms since 2006 and has consistently finished among the top 10 averaging defenders in that time. That’s not so say that he has been a dead set lock in most teams in that same period, in fact he’s been far from it. Shaw has burned many of us in the past with his inconsistent scoring and his incredible ability to find a way to get suspended or dropped which has contributed to him not playing a full season since 2007. Most still haven’t forgiven him for his 2011 suspension for betting, which resulted in him missing the last eight rounds of the home and away season. What made it worse was he was one of the most traded in players in week he got suspended, and with no reverse trade button available at the time he burned so many coaches. Scares are still visible for so many of us today.
It really can be best summarised by looking at the above table. His ‘average points’ column is outstanding when we consider he is a defender. Remember not too many defenders will average you close to 100pts a game over a season. However a quick run-down of the ‘games played’ column can quickly remind us why we were hesitant in selecting him at the start of the season. Since 2007 he has missed on average 4.33 games a season, with his best result in that time frame of 3 games missed in both 2010 and last season in 2013. I’m sure consistent isn’t often a word used to describe Shaw but when it comes to missing games; Shaw is as consistent as they come. That is a problem when you consider Shaw has already missed one game this year in round five, and history tells us he is likely to miss again.
From a fantasy scoring perspective however, inconsistent is the word that best describes Shaw. “Frustrating” is another that springs to mind.
In both the last two seasons while with Collingwood Heath had managed to score greater than 120 on 5 occasions, but in both those seasons he managed to score below 80 on 4 occasions. Consistently inconsistent.This year has followed a similar pattern as we can see in the table below.
So far this year he has had 2 scores above 120 but these have all been offset by 2 scores below 70, including the 34 he scored against Richmond in round 10. Most would look at that score and assume it was injury affected but I’m afraid it was a tag affected score, on the back of a heavy loss to the Giants. This is the main reason why Shaw is so cheap right now, and since that game, both he and the Giants have shown that perhaps that horror defeat has been a turning point in their season. Since then the Giants have gone down in narrow losses to Essendon and Hawthorn, and Shaw has scored 95 and 127 supercoach points in those games. What I liked at the weekend gone by is that Shaw spoke to the playing group before they went down to the rooms after the defeat to Essendon. This tells me he is taking his senior role at the Giants very seriously and he wants to lead his club out of their midseason form slump.
So how does Shaw score his points and is there anything we need to be wary of bringing him into our sides?
Shaw, just likely Hanley is very much an outside player. He has been averaging 13 and 13.4 uncontested possessions a game in 2013 and this year so far, which equates to approximately 66% of his possessions. It is his effective disposal and his kick to handball ratio that sees him score well in supercoach. When those numbers are high he will score well and when he adds marks from opposition kicks, contested marks and a few tackles like he did over the weekend, that is when he jumps up into the elite defender bracket and pumps out the big supercoachscores.
Again as we said with Hanley above the problem with outside players is that they tend to be a little easier to shut down. We have seen it already this year against Richmond and you’d have to think that the opposition will put work into him if he starts hitting form again for the Giants.
Encouragingly for Shaw too, there are plenty of other Gaint’s that would command the attention of the opposition coaches so he should get off the leash in a few more games this season. Like Hanley will have days where he gets a lot of attention and I’m sure his really big scores will also be offset by a few more sub 70 scores. Again if you’re willing to take the ups with the downs then Shaw has to be considered for your remaining defender spots.
The Mad Irishman’s Verdict
2014 Predicted Status: Strong Midpricer
Predicted Average from here on out: 93-97pts
As both are similar players at similar prices this week I’d have to give Hanley the nod over Shaw, if only because I just can’t come to trust Shaw will stay on the park for the rest of the year. He is also more likely to get tagged out of games and thus why I think he will average slightly less than Hanley.
What do you think community, is Hanley are better pick? Am I too harsh on Shaw? Will you be bringing in either this week? Leave a comment below or hit me up on twitter @Da_Mad_Irishman
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