Tight Arse Tuesday, Round 11
Community we did it, it’s all over. F##K off byes .
I am a little disappointed with my team’s performance during the byes. I missed out on a big score in round two of the byes due to late outs and sub scores, and although I had planned and traded really well through the byes, there are certain things you can’t plan for. That is nature of the bye rounds and any injuries, suspensions or late outs are really going to hurt you, as most likely you will only have 18/19 players most weeks to start from. Sometimes you just need that little extra bit of luck to get you over the line and I hope that many of you reading this now got a piece of it. For those of you who feel aggrieved by those byes, just take solace in the fact that they are gone for another year, and flick open your Supercoach side and take stock of your full side with reserves once more.
I’m hoping we didn’t perform any sideways trades during the byes because we’ll need those trades, in the coming weeks to finish off our teams, and it’s almost time we start thinking about getting a few loophole candidates for our benches. I believe we might have an ideal one feature in our TAT today, although he might just be a little too early for most of us.
Shall we begin!
Current Price $386,300
Priced to Average 75
Matthew has already featured on TAT this season, so I won’t spend too much time on him again today. I have been getting a lot of questions about Matthew, has he has dropped back in price over the last couple of weeks due to an injury affected score in round 7 against Melbourne. He did get off to a great start to the season and was averaging 100.6 up until that game, with only one poor score in round 6, when he scored 56 against the Western Bulldogs.
The reason for such high output was that Matthew had a change in role, and maybe more importantly some absentees that are currently on the Crows injury list. Namely Ricky Henderson. Henderson played the rebounding defender role at the Crows for the most part of last season and managed to average 105 pts per game from round 14 to 20 before a knee injury ended his year. Henderson was tipped to continue that role this year but after suffering a broken fibula after being tackled during a team session during the preseason, Ricky hasn’t played this year, and isn’t due back for another 6-8 weeks.
I have been making the point over the last few weeks that we should really look for good value for our D5 and D6 slots and make sure we have D1 to D4 packed with the Bartels, McVeighs, Simpsons and Swallows of this world. Matthew is definitely great value at his current price but I still have my reservations. Henderson is recovering well and by all accounts could possibly return in round 16 or 17. If that is the case and he goes straight back in the side as a rebounding defender it is unlikely Jaensch is going to continue his current level of high scores. Of course this is all speculation but there is enough in it to make me wary. If Henderson does come straight back in you will end up with a poor return over the last 6 rounds of the season, 4 of which are finals.
I also think Jaensch won’t average as much as some other cheapies that have featured in this segment over the last few weeks. He has struggled in two of his last three games, excluding the injury affected game. This might just be because the opposition are putting that little bit more time into him as he has been highlighted as their rebounding player. At the start of the season he was an unknown entity but after his early season form, opposition coaches have taken note.
The Mad Irishman’s Verdict
2014 Predicted Status: Strong Midpricer
Predicted Average from here on out: 86-90pts
There is still value in Jaensch at his current price but there is enough doubt about his role when Henderson comes back in to make me recommend him as a solid D5 or D6 choice. Even taking this concern away I still can’t see him finishing in the top 10 defenders for the year. However if you are really cash strapped and struggling to fill defender spots then Jaensch could be your man, just don’t go expecting premium output every week.
Current Price $299,500
Priced to Average 58
Last week I gave a little teaser into Tex but this week we will do a full breakdown. I told you last week that I like Tex even though he is another Key Forward. The big difference is unlike, Riewoldt, Franklin, Roughead, Petrie, Cloke, Pavlich, Kennedy and co, instead of dropping in value he is only going to go up. Am I concerned that he has only scored 56 in his frist two games? I guess it would be nice if he has showed a little more over the first two week,s but as I am a glass half full type of guy it also means he hasn’t commanded any attention and thus could turn into a very handy POD if selected at this stage of the season.
If we flash back to 2012 when Tex last played a full season, or at least a fair chunk of a season, where he finished with a very nice average of 100.2 you can see why I’m not too concerned about his two early scores of 56. In that season he had two horror scores of 24 in round 3 against Hawthorn and 39 in round 18 against Geelong. These were the only two games in 2012 where Tex failed to kick a goal. In his first two games this year he has only kicked the one goal and has returned two poor scores.
As you can see in the above table, when Tex hits the score board he generally scores very well. In all but one of his games in 2012 where he has kicked three or more goals he has cracked the tonne. He kicked 3 or more in 8 of his 12 games or 75% of the games he has played. Another great bonus of Tex is that he leads up the ground and collects disposals unlike many of the other key forwards in the competition, and most of those disposals come in the form of a mark as highlighted by his relatively high mark count.
Although he hasn’t set the world on fire in his two return games to date he has still shown me enough to sugest he can get back to those 2012 levels again. He collected 17 disposals and 7 marks with 4 behinds in his first match back and 13 disposals, 5 marks and one goal one in his second match. You would have to expect that he would be a little sluggish on his comeback, remembering that he only played 5 games since the final series in 2012. The fact that he seems up and about, collecting possessions and marking the ball is very encouraging and backing that the goals will come in time. When they do, you can expect some big scores form Taylor.
The Mad Irishman’s Verdict
2014 Predicted Status: Strong Midpricer/Premium
Predicted Average from here on out: 96-100pts
If I was looking to bring in a Key Position forward this week or next then why not pick the guy who will cost you the least and most likely provide you with similar or better than all the other Key Position forwards. Look is he going to have a few terrible scores? Sure, but we should all know that anyway. ALL KEY POSITION FORWARDS DO. The bonus with Tex is you won’t be forking out heaps of cash and watching it disappear like you would have done if you picked Riewoldt, Franklin, Roughead, Petrie, Cloke, Pavlich, or Kennedy at the start of the year. If you have a full forward line then I would suggest you make two trades either this week or next and bring both Tex and a non playing rookie in and loophole tex for the rest of the year, ensuring you only get his big scores and I’m confident that they will come.
Now unfortunately my real life job has once again come in the way of my favourite past time and I have run out of time for this week’s article. However as a treat to you the community I will get another TAT off this week where I will look at Pearce Hanley and Buddy Franking and access if either of these underperforming premiums can return to top form.
Remember if you got any questions you can hit me up on twitter @Da_Mad_Irishman
Stay tuned ….
Mick the Mad Irishman