Tight Arse Tuesday, Round 11

mick-the-madCommunity we did it, it’s all over. F##K off byes .

I am a little disappointed with my team’s performance during the byes. I missed out on a big score in round two of the byes due to late outs and sub scores, and although I had planned and traded really well through the byes, there are certain things you can’t plan for. That is nature of the bye rounds and any injuries, suspensions or late outs are really going to hurt you, as most likely you will only have 18/19 players most weeks to start from. Sometimes you just need that little extra bit of luck to get you over the line and I hope that many of you reading this now got a piece of it. For those of you who feel aggrieved by those byes, just take solace in the fact that they are gone for another year, and flick open your Supercoach side and take stock of your full side with reserves once more.

I’m hoping we didn’t perform any sideways trades during the byes because we’ll need those trades, in the coming weeks to finish off our teams, and it’s almost time we start thinking about getting a few loophole candidates for our benches. I believe we might have an ideal one feature in our TAT today, although he might just be a little too early for most of us.

Shall we begin!

Matthew Jaensch

Average 90.7
Breakeven 56
Current Price $386,300
Priced to Average 75

Matthew has already featured on TAT this season, so I won’t spend too much time on him again today. I have been getting a lot of questions about Matthew, has he has dropped back in price over the last couple of weeks due to an injury affected score in round 7 against Melbourne. He did get off to a great start to the season and was averaging 100.6 up until that game, with only one poor score in round 6, when he scored 56 against the Western Bulldogs.

The reason for such high output was that Matthew had a change in role, and maybe more importantly some absentees that are currently on the Crows injury list. Namely Ricky Henderson. Henderson played the rebounding defender role at the Crows for the most part of last season and managed to average 105 pts per game from round 14 to 20 before a knee injury ended his year. Henderson was tipped to continue that role this year but after suffering a broken fibula after being tackled during a team session during the preseason, Ricky hasn’t played this year, and isn’t due back for another 6-8 weeks.

I have been making the point over the last few weeks that we should really look for good value for our D5 and D6 slots and make sure we have D1 to D4 packed with the Bartels, McVeighs, Simpsons and Swallows of this world. Matthew is definitely great value at his current price but I still have my reservations. Henderson is recovering well and by all accounts could possibly return in round 16 or 17. If that is the case and he goes straight back in the side as a rebounding defender it is unlikely Jaensch is going to continue his current level of high scores. Of course this is all speculation but there is enough in it to make me wary. If Henderson does come straight back in you will end up with a poor return over the last 6 rounds of the season, 4 of which are finals.

I also think Jaensch won’t average as much as some other cheapies that have featured in this segment over the last few weeks. He has struggled in two of his last three games, excluding the injury affected game. This might just be because the opposition are putting that little bit more time into him as he has been highlighted as their rebounding player. At the start of the season he was an unknown entity but after his early season form, opposition coaches have taken note.

The Mad Irishman’s Verdict

2014 Predicted Status: Strong Midpricer
Predicted Average from here on out: 86-90pts

Final Word:
There is still value in Jaensch at his current price but there is enough doubt about his role when Henderson comes back in to make me recommend him as a solid D5 or D6 choice. Even taking this concern away I still can’t see him finishing in the top 10 defenders for the year. However if you are really cash strapped and struggling to fill defender spots then Jaensch could be your man, just don’t go expecting premium output every week.

Taylor Walker

Average 56
Breakeven 67
Current Price $299,500
Priced to Average 58

Last week I gave a little teaser into Tex but this week we will do a full breakdown. I told you last week that I like Tex even though he is another Key Forward. The big difference is unlike, Riewoldt, Franklin, Roughead, Petrie, Cloke, Pavlich, Kennedy and co, instead of dropping in value he is only going to go up. Am I concerned that he has only scored 56 in his frist two games? I guess it would be nice if he has showed a little more over the first two week,s but as I am a glass half full type of guy it also means he hasn’t commanded any attention and thus could turn into a very handy POD if selected at this stage of the season.

If we flash back to 2012 when Tex last played a full season, or at least a fair chunk of a season, where he finished with a very nice average of 100.2 you can see why I’m not too concerned about his two early scores of 56. In that season he had two horror scores of 24 in round 3 against Hawthorn and 39 in round 18 against Geelong. These were the only two games in 2012 where Tex failed to kick a goal. In his first two games this year he has only kicked the one goal and has returned two poor scores.

Image 1

As you can see in the above table, when Tex hits the score board he generally scores very well. In all but one of his games in 2012 where he has kicked three or more goals he has cracked the tonne. He kicked 3 or more in 8 of his 12 games or 75% of the games he has played. Another great bonus of Tex is that he leads up the ground and collects disposals unlike many of the other key forwards in the competition, and most of those disposals come in the form of a mark as highlighted by his relatively high mark count.

Although he hasn’t set the world on fire in his two return games to date he has still shown me enough to sugest he can get back to those 2012 levels again. He collected 17 disposals and 7 marks with 4 behinds in his first match back and 13 disposals, 5 marks and one goal one in his second match. You would have to expect that he would be a little sluggish on his comeback, remembering that he only played 5 games since the final series in 2012. The fact that he seems up and about, collecting possessions and marking the ball is very encouraging and backing that the goals will come in time. When they do, you can expect some big scores form Taylor.

The Mad Irishman’s Verdict

2014 Predicted Status: Strong Midpricer/Premium
Predicted Average from here on out: 96-100pts

Final Word:
If I was looking to bring in a Key Position forward this week or next then why not pick the guy who will cost you the least and most likely provide you with similar or better than all the other Key Position forwards. Look is he going to have a few terrible scores? Sure, but we should all know that anyway. ALL KEY POSITION FORWARDS DO. The bonus with Tex is you won’t be forking out heaps of cash and watching it disappear like you would have done if you picked Riewoldt, Franklin, Roughead, Petrie, Cloke, Pavlich, or Kennedy at the start of the year. If you have a full forward line then I would suggest you make two trades either this week or next and bring both Tex and a non playing rookie in and loophole tex for the rest of the year, ensuring you only get his big scores and I’m confident that they will come.

Now unfortunately my real life job has once again come in the way of my favourite past time and I have run out of time for this week’s article. However as a treat to you the community I will get another TAT off this week where I will look at Pearce Hanley and Buddy Franking and access if either of these underperforming premiums can return to top form.

Remember if you got any questions you can hit me up on twitter @Da_Mad_Irishman

Stay tuned ….

Mick the Mad Irishman

 

Your Eyes Will Be Glued To This Site This Round:

PODCAST – End Of Bye Rounds PARTY

155 thoughts on “Tight Arse Tuesday, Round 11

  • 27/05/2014 at 22:13
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    Thanks Mick some god ideas as usual. The loophole on Tex looks very tempting. Also interested get your opinion on Goddard as M8. Other than his injury effected game seems to Mr Consistent. Can he continue to score 110+ for the rest of the year? If so seems a steal this week.

    • 27/05/2014 at 22:27
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      I do see him continuing his out put and your right he is a steal this week. If we got him two weeks back it would have been even better

  • 27/05/2014 at 22:15
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    Thanks Mick Great Read
    Buddy Riewoldt or Tex for F6?

    • 27/05/2014 at 22:26
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      I like all too be honest – wouldn't be surprised if all their output is the same giver or take 5 in average from here on out

      My order would be Buddy, Tex, Riewoldt

    • 28/05/2014 at 16:06
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      Nroo, tex, buddy

  • 27/05/2014 at 22:15
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    Great wisdom shared with the community Mick. Keep it up.

  • 27/05/2014 at 22:20
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    Tex or Fasolo?

    • 27/05/2014 at 22:29
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      I'd like to see Fasolo for a another week or two before I could say for definite .. I still think he could repeat his output pre injury – give him another week or two before you punt him .. would be sickening if he bangs out a couple of tonnes over the next few weeks

    • 27/05/2014 at 23:11
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      Fasolo drops the 29 score from round 5 out of his rolling price after this week. Suppose he puts out another 60 this week he will be priced around $318k I believe. With 2 scores of 60 in his pricing what would his break even be going into round 12?

      • 27/05/2014 at 23:28
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        If he scores an 80 he will be $327 with a BE of 55
        60 im guessing would be a break even of 75 80 maybe more

  • 27/05/2014 at 22:22
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    Well, I already have both so going with the wisdom of Mick. Might be in for a bumpy ride though!!!

  • 27/05/2014 at 22:27
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    Hey community just wondering who you would bring in if you could afford any forward in the league. Already have danger, Parker, Martin and zorko and am looking to upgrade fasolo
    Cheers

      • 27/05/2014 at 22:38
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        Cheers mick that’s who I had in mind.

    • 28/05/2014 at 16:10
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      dahlhaus or gray

  • 27/05/2014 at 22:34
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    Thoughts on Andrew Mackie community?

    • 27/05/2014 at 22:43
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      I am having a sneak peek at him too….50K cheaper than Burgoyne to finish off my backline. That cash could come in handy for other upgrades in the coming weeks.

      Burger vs GWS this week though could go BOOM!

      • 27/05/2014 at 22:44
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        I have been burnt by his average 70-80's in the past though and this is what is making me hesitant. Nearly a straight swap for Langdon though!

        • 27/05/2014 at 22:54
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          yeah im in a similar position. Either go Mackie for D6, or fork out an extra 100-120k for Bartel/Kade Simpson. Mackie's looking a very nice option atm

  • 27/05/2014 at 22:35
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    Tex's disposal has been really poor which previously was a real strength. Aver. 58% efficiency with 8 clangers…. He'll need to kick 3-4 goals a game to return to that 100 average and now has to compete with other targets (an improved Jenkins and also Jpod). 1.5 in 2 games hasn't totally inspired me.
    Side note – with anything I have suggested this year, then do the total opposite and you can't go wrong!!

    • 27/05/2014 at 23:49
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      I'm putting that down to a bit of rustiness. The fact he is still finding the pill i'm backing his Disposal % will find its way back up the 70% and those clangers will come down.

  • 27/05/2014 at 22:36
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    So mick will you be trading text into ur fwd line mate?

    • 27/05/2014 at 23:47
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      I haven't decided yet – I have a full forward line so I can use him as a Loophole if I get him in this week. However I need two more defenders before I am full premo so I might have to address that line first

      • 28/05/2014 at 18:21
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        I'm exact opposite, happy with my back line except Langdon, but fwd line needs some work. Tex might just get the nod

  • 27/05/2014 at 22:38
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    Best midfielder under 573k? Already have Watson and Selwood

    • 27/05/2014 at 23:45
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      Ward at GWS would give you a nice POD – Barlow, Swan or Griffin

      My first choice now would be Barlow

      • 28/05/2014 at 08:27
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        Agree on Barlow. Nine weeks of bottom 8 teams before the cats game.

    • 28/05/2014 at 07:08
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      Picked up ward two weeks ago…Honestly don't think you can go wrong (He scored 91 points in just over a quarter of football against Adelaide[Before being subbed out])
      On his day, he's a big time scorer, and even when it's not, he'll find a way to get to 100 points.
      Seriously consider

  • 27/05/2014 at 22:38
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    Dutch Life says:

    May 27, 2014 at 8:36 pm

    Hey community would like your help on what to do with my team this week, thanks.

    DEF: Bartell, Simpson, Jaensh, Birchall, Swallow, Langdon. (Cutler, Geogriou)

    MIDS: Ablett, Pendlebury, JPK, Selwood, Watson, Murphy, S.Johnson, Cotchin (Hallahan, Acres)

    RUC: Sandilands, Goldstein ( Derickx, King)

    FWD: Danger, Martin, Parker, Zorko, JKH, Taylor ( Ambrose, C.Cameron)

    With 10 trades left, and $5,700 left in the warchest,

    I was thinking JKH>Shenton, but still am not sure, would love your help community,

    Cheers.

    • 27/05/2014 at 23:16
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      I like this as jkh will start with the green vest again sometime during the season. Also stacks the war chest for and upgrade of ambrose or Taylor in the next week or two

      • 28/05/2014 at 06:41
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        Yes I agree. I am also going JKH to Shenton. You could also go Taylor to Buddy or Reiwoldt or Tex if you are game

        • 28/05/2014 at 08:21
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          Taylor has a low break even of 3. He's got a bit more cash to make yet. I reckon wait a week to see how Tex goes.

  • 27/05/2014 at 23:03
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    Thoughts on Barlow?

    after 2 low scores returning from injury, has busted out a 110+.
    Has a dream run home until the finals.

    But in saying that, he plays 3 teams that will fight for top 4 in the finals so he could lift in a big way to get freo to a top 4 spot.

    Is he a good upgrade for my final mid premo?
    Other options are:
    Pendles
    JPK (overs atm imo)
    Goddard
    Stevie J ( waiting for a further price drop )

    If I go for a 550ish k player this week I can go full premo next week. If I go a 600K + player, It will take another week to go full premo.

    love to hear your thoughts.

    • 27/05/2014 at 23:42
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      Barlow would give you a POD for that last spot and I would be confident that he would average around 110 from here on out. I think you would get more from all of Pendles, JPK and Stevie J, and Goddard is in great form and looks like he too could average 110 from here on out.

      Best value for money would be Goddard but I think you might miss Pendles average of 125ish over the coarse – with 12 rounds to go you would be giving up 15points a round on average which would equate to 180 for the rest of the year

      • 30/05/2014 at 21:52
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        Cheers for the advice Mick.

        Ended up going Polec to Pendles and SLlyod to Shenton.

        Will give me cash to upgrade Langdon to hibbered next week (or possibly langford so I can use langdon as bench cover).

        Cheers again

  • 27/05/2014 at 23:06
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    You're very bullish on Tex there Mick. No doubt there is plenty of value there but how many KPPs have averaged 96-100 this season, especially those who have missed 12mths of footy? Rhetorical question btw.

    For me he would be a great stepping stone to an ultra premo but alas I don't have the spare trades to partake in that opportunity myself.

    Agree 100% with your musings on Jaensch though.

    • 27/05/2014 at 23:37
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      Always great to hear your contribution SCaddict,

      While not many KPPs are averaging that well now it only takes a run of three or four games on high output to get them up to that 100average – I think once the season settles we will find a few in that range between 95-100, ala Rougheah, Riewoldt and Petrie in 2013 .. Just have sneaky feeling Tex could be one of those in 2014 .. of coarse I my know means get it right all the time.

  • 27/05/2014 at 23:06
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    Thoughts on Gardiner or Bews, is it worth the 50k in the bank to get Bews with low Job Security, or Gardiner so that you have a D7 that will play if you need that score as an emergency?

    • 27/05/2014 at 23:38
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      Not sure if it is worth the 50k for Bews with low JS – although he could turn into a loophole player if hes dropped , depends on your plans going forward

      • 28/05/2014 at 09:06
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        Thanks Mick,

        Already have Clurey as D8 for the loophole so will jump on board Gardiner!!

  • 27/05/2014 at 23:31
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    Current

    Def:

    Swallow, burgoyne, enright, hurn, Hanley and Langdon (georgiou, Gardiner)

    Mid:

    Ablett, beams, selwood, Goddard, Watson, Jack, griffen, Murphy (Kelly, acres)

    Ruck:

    Sandi, mcevoy (derrix, king)

    Fwd:

    Danger, Dusty, zorko, Wright,walker, fasolo. (Lloyd, z. merret

    Should I go:

    Fasolo-reiwolt/buddy

    Wright- reiwoldt/ buddy

    Or

    Fasolo- reiwoldt/ buddy

    Kelly- shenton

    And bank $150k

    Also is Wright a keeper? And would having Tex, buddy and reiwoldt be to many key forwards?

    Cheers

    • 28/05/2014 at 08:24
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      That depends on your philosophy towards KPF, carlos. For me, I can't stand them. That said, based entirely on form line, I'd choose Buddy over Roo.

      Wright is a frustrating customer, Crows are all over the shop at the moment and his scoring seems to depend on if the Crows win or lose. He has a b.e of 111 this week, I'd move him on over fas (who you will need to move on at some point as well)

      Not entirely sure what's happening with McEvoy's hammy, you might need to address that issue if he's out for a while

      • 28/05/2014 at 12:46
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        Cheers kev
        What would you think of
        Fas- Wingard
        Wright- reiwolt

        If I trade out fas and wright i will have 840k.
        Best alternatives ?

    • 29/05/2014 at 10:43
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      Hi Carlos,
      IMO your fwd line is where you're losing most points from, 1 more top premo will plug the leak a little. Kelly to Shenton then Wright to Parker or Gray is a good option and gives the mid for flexibility to cover injuries suspensions. Parker and Gray will only vary in price by 10k-20k over the rest of the year and both will return you 100 points every week. You can use the cash you generate from this trade to turn George into Jaensch or Hanley/langdon to Bartell next week.

  • 27/05/2014 at 23:39
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    Which trade is better and would get me more points
    Sam Lloyd to N.Riewoldt/Buddy
    Polec to Pendles

    • 27/05/2014 at 23:50
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      That really depends on the rest of your field how many trades left etc
      Lloyd might struggle to get back into the side and if he does you will get 60-90 points difference
      Yet pendles is going up and polec going down in price.. polec could score 70-100 pendles 110-140 so theres your difference there between 10-70 points.. Most likely be around 40-50
      Yet as i said it depends on your situation and your structure
      Hope that helps good luck

      • 27/05/2014 at 23:54
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        If you have lloyd on the bench and a half decent forward line i would get in pendles now.. lloyd still has a BE of -13 so his guna go up still
        If lloyds on the field and hes not named get him out asap polec can still put out decent scores

        • 28/05/2014 at 01:15
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          Thnaks for replying. I have 13 trades left, and only 3 positions left to fill till full premo, one in my forward line, the other two in my midfield( tyson and polec). i have c.cameron ans j.impey on the bench, if needed

  • 28/05/2014 at 00:39
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    Thoughts on Deledio? Priced at 500k, could be another steal just like goddard.

    • 28/05/2014 at 06:44
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      Pass for me the way the Tiges have been playing

  • 28/05/2014 at 01:31
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    Franklin, Wingard or Roughead?

    Franklin looks to be hitting form, Roughy has GWS this week and Wingard seems to be always good for a solid 100 but doesn't have the ceiling of the other two.

    • 28/05/2014 at 02:16
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      Wingard's probably your safest best. With GWS under the pump he will be shut down this week. Also as discussed all season KPF not worth the risk. Franklin too erratic and has stained our pants! Up to you. Let us know 🙂

      • 28/05/2014 at 02:23
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        Yeah valid just hoping for some big scores to climb the ranks I suppose! I'd have to trade out Fasolo to complete the trade, I think I might keep him another week seeing as the pies have an easy draw and just work on my defence for now. Maybe bank some money bringing in a shenton or lennon in the forward line.

        • 28/05/2014 at 06:45
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          Wingard

  • 28/05/2014 at 02:14
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    Hey Mick, Love your work! I need to upgrade one of my defenders (R Shaw, T Langdon, M Suckling) I have 275,600 in the warchest! Who should I get rid of and who should I get in?
    Cheers mate!

    • 28/05/2014 at 02:38
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      Langdon hasn't scored well when Fasolo has been playing. Also with his negative break-even I think his the first to go. I'm going to try my chances personally and bring in Hurn. Suckling might do okay still he'll get plenty of the ball with hawthorns injuries still

  • 28/05/2014 at 07:10
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    Hi community
    How do rate these trades:

    JKH~~~~Cam Shenton

    Langdon~~~~Jimmy Bartel

    Sound good?
    would love to hear your thoughts

    • 28/05/2014 at 07:40
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      Solid trades there, Remy.

      • 28/05/2014 at 07:54
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        Sounds awesome

  • 28/05/2014 at 07:14
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    Would you say Wingard & Bruest are both premiums?
    Just wondering

    • 28/05/2014 at 07:55
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      I would say they are both strong mid pricers

  • 28/05/2014 at 08:00
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    Hi Community
    Does Langdon's prospects of reasonable scores increase with the long term injury to Brown?
    I've given him 1 more week simply because I had other post bye trades more pressing to me, so I am hoping so.

    • 28/05/2014 at 08:15
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      Different roles, wes. With more pressing matters in your team I'd be comfortable in leaving him this week, he won't lose heaps of value if he puts up a dud score.

  • 28/05/2014 at 08:06
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    Thought on Nick Dal Santo? Has a very easy run come supercoach finals time. Other wise i don't know what premium to get. I can afford anyone and i already have
    Ablett, Pendles, Watson, Rockliff, Beams, Polec, Selwood, Crouch, Acres and Hartung.

    Thoughts Community

    • 28/05/2014 at 08:09
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      I also am unsure wether to go a freo player since ross lyon is known to rest his star players

  • 28/05/2014 at 08:12
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    G'day community,

    After a F6 with 470k to spend. Not a fan of KPF so players like Buddy, Lynch, Gunston etc are off the table. Leaning towards Chappy, LeCras or Matera.

    Matera probably doesn't have the ceiling of the other 2, and both Chappy and LeCras have durability concerns. Thoughts on these guys or look elsewhere?

    fwd line is: Danger, Gray, Parker, Breust, Wingard

    • 28/05/2014 at 08:47
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      Damo, it's going to take some balls but I'm really considering LeCras as F6. 419K and has averaged 114 in his full 3 games this year. Durability is a real concern, but as they say 'high risk, high return'.

      • 28/05/2014 at 16:19
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        Im with you buzzer! Was initially going to wait and grab nroo, but seeing lecras get his hands on the ball in the mid makes him have more value then relying on a key forward to bag a set of goals each round to have a good output

    • 28/05/2014 at 09:18
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      Chappy is still good value. I got him from round 1 and been happy. there was always a risk he would miss games. So far he played the first 3 games then had a rest. Then played 4 games and had a rest (and bye). If he gets an injury that puts him out for more than 3 weeks then i'll get rid of him. For now im keeping him mainly because there are so few other options.

    • 29/05/2014 at 10:55
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      Hi Damo,
      Chappy LeCras, Matera? It's very high risk to trade in any of these players at this stage but I reckon Matera will get on field more often than the other 2. Wow I hope you have ambulance insurance.
      IMO If you can't get Dalhouse this week trade on another line and get him next week.

  • 28/05/2014 at 08:20
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    Cheers Mick! for another great article, look forward to the one later in the week, you have solved a problem for me with Jaensch perfect D5, he happened to jump too D3 with averages over enright and Scott D. Thompson, Thompson is he playing a different role or is he copping the forward tag?

    • 28/05/2014 at 08:34
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      He’s been in shocking form and I think having Grima out injured is hurting his performance too. No idea where he was meant to be last week, but Scott must’ve thought rotating McD, NDS, Ziebel n co on Hawkins was the way to go. Not sure why you wouldn’t play an All Australian Fullback on hom ?!??! B Scott makes some interesting decisions.

      Let’s hope Hunter S comes good on the second half of the season!

      • 28/05/2014 at 09:53
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        I think poor old Brad, gets overwhelmed when he plays his brother, thinks way too much about matchups and less about how he's going to win .. lol. I'm hoping Thompson will come good had him since the start I'had forgotten he was running around like a headless chook. He will come good I hope, he's got too realise he is the leader back there and take control like maxwell etc. Thanks for your reply 😀

  • 28/05/2014 at 08:46
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    Traded Jaensk out this week, lots of players wanting spots in the crows backline and he was used less as the half back run out option since fracturing his ribs

    • 01/06/2014 at 21:39
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      how do ya feel about that trade now???

  • 28/05/2014 at 08:52
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    Dangerfield fellas. Moon boot one week, hunched over with back/ribs the next. I have some concerns with him and the possibility of being nursed through the next month, reducing his output somewhat. Anyone else share this concern?

    • 28/05/2014 at 09:00
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      everyone has Dangerfield, it might come down to the quality of your emergencies and the ability to use DDP

  • 28/05/2014 at 09:18
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    Garglesnarfs Defender of the week

    Cam Guthrie – Geelong

    Current Price $441,500

    Start Price $317,000

    Stats: Season Ave 88, 3rnd Ave 95

    High score 126 v West Coast, Low score 47 v Brisbane.

    You want a POD, well i’ll give you one. For those of you with Jaensch or not willing to pick him, this guy is a real Moneyball pick.

    Cam Guthrie has been on my radar for a while. In his fourth year of AFL footbal he has shown steady improvement, and his form this season has been excellent as he appears to be having his break out year. Apart from an unusually quiet game against the Lions in round 2, where he only scored 47, he hasn’t dropped below 76 this season. In fact if you take out that 47 his average per game over 93. To make his inclusion even more tempting he has banged out 99 against Freo and a 112 v Nth since the bye.

    His points are coming from a per game average of 18 disposals, of which 7 are contested, and also manages 7 tackles, 3 clearances, and 3 marks per game, plus a disposal efficiency of 74%. In fact much of his role seems to be the one that Enright has filled so well over the years, that of the link man out of defence which may help to explain why Enright has not been as consistent this year.

    Like Jaensch, Guthrie is not my idea of a D1-4 as there are more proven performers out there, but as Mick suggests, a value pick in D5-6 when money is a bit tight (as it is in my case) can really help you fill your side without having to churn through as many rookie trades. Unlike Jaensch, Guthrie has shown good improvement over the years at the Cattery, and looks to be having a classic 4th year player breakout year, which is why i’m jumping on him this week.

    Geelongs draw also opens up after Sydney this week and they have Carlton, StKilda, Suns, Essendon, WB, Melb and GWS in the following 7 weeks.

    At this stage I will be trading in Guthrie as my D5 with Langford dropping out (Not trusting Hawthorn now that Clarko is not at the helm).

    Verdict – Strong Mid Pricer whom I expect to average 95-100 from here in. Even if he doesn’t suit your plans now, he is one to keep an eye on for next years round 1 team.

    Goodluck everyone!

    • 28/05/2014 at 09:55
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      good player but prefer Hurn or Hanley for less money

      • 28/05/2014 at 10:19
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        Fair enough Tylo, he’s not for everybody.

        I already have Hanley from the start. I also had Hurn but his body is a constant worry and after trading out for his injury, I won’t be trading him back in, just too much risk for mine.

    • 28/05/2014 at 09:57
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      Good call Gargle. Have been keeping a curious eye on Guthrie's scores, thinking this cannot last… and yet it has.

      My only concern is that, with Hunt in and out of the Cats' team, I thought Guthrie had assumed the role as primary tagger? Which should continue to give him plenty of tackling opportunities, but if he has to tighten up on his man towards the business end of the season I fear his other numbers may drop off.

    • 28/05/2014 at 10:40
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      Hi GFC,

      He was in my starting 22 before RD1 this season…I am Cats fan and heard lot of positives about him during the pre-season…..I am actually now saying to myself why didn't you stick with your gut and go with him to start the season…..now that is SC we all love….some picks will fire and some don't…..and I started with Pittard instead of Guthrie this year which backfired big time…..frustrated on myself of choosing a wrong mid pricer to start with…..

      IMO he is really having a breakout year, and worth considering for D6 position…..but I am staying clear of the players who priced like that unless they are a fallen premo and who has proven before they have got the higher ceiling…..that's my issue…ranked well enough and also low on trade and wouldn't want to be bringing any not proven players in to my team at this point of the competition…..

      But very good post for someone who has got trades in hand and would like take a gamble on him…..worthy selection in my honest opinion….

      Cheers,
      Raj….

    • 28/05/2014 at 10:49
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      Got him in the other week

  • 28/05/2014 at 09:48
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    hey guys, im absolutely stumped! Have no idea who to trade out and need some help from you all!!

    Backs: Mcveigh, Hibberd, birchall, langdon, suckling, langford (Geogiou, tippet(

    Mids: Gaz, Beams, Selwood, Dal santo, smurphy, cotchin, goodard, polec (J, lloyd, hartung)

    Rucks: Sandi, Goldy

    Forwards: Danger, Martin, wingard, dalhaus, Parker, L. Taylor (ambrose, lloyd)

    Thank you to any who gives me some help !

    • 28/05/2014 at 12:34
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      fwds+ rucs seem about as good as you could choose at the mo. And mids could be argued til cows come home really.
      DEF is where it is at mate… room for improvement there.
      Langdon, Langford Georgiou and tippet are a concern.

      have a look at what you got in bank, what you can get for Langdon and say tippet (long term out), and bring in a good D3/4 type and a no namer on bench.
      This site has a great BE indicator on it… take a look there.
      Some defs to pick from Burgoyne, simpson, hanley. shaun Higgins perhaps as a DPP def/fwd??

      • 28/05/2014 at 16:06
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        cheers wes, im thinking of going langdon > Shenton and Langford> Shenton!!!
        What do you think>

        • 28/05/2014 at 17:16
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          I'd be thinking Langford is more the one who will not be scoring as much as Langford.
          those most people's thoughts are Langford will drop with a BE up around his avg.
          if you could work it I would keep Langdon and lagnford, lose tippet and get in shenton… somehow.

      • 28/05/2014 at 17:17
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        Jed bews geelong cheap rookie

  • 28/05/2014 at 09:52
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    This week I’m going Robertson to Shenton for a money maker

    Also thinking of upgrading polec to Goddard. He’s only had one score under the ton ( injured). Only costs me about 50 k as well. Bargain?

    • 28/05/2014 at 10:02
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      Same trades I'm looking at. The 50K Goddard upgrade is locked in for mine, too much of a bargain to pass up.

      Tossing up between Flipper and Young Crouching for the cull that will bring Shenton in.

      • 28/05/2014 at 10:47
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        If Flipper is named on the ground and Crouch misses out again then it makes the decision easy IMO….If Flipper is named and on the ground and not on the bench then I would keep him, if he plays a full game IMO he will score in the range of 70-80 PPG and has got some money to make if he keeps his spot on the ground for next month or so…..

        If Crouch misses out and Flipper named on the bench and if you think he will be the starting sub then I would trade Flipper out for Shenton….

        Next week you can go for Crouch to C Beams IMO or upgrade to premium…..have a look at C Beams playing his 2nd game this week and see how he goes, I will be watching him very closely this week…..

        Cheers,
        Raj…

        • 28/05/2014 at 10:58
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          Cheers Raj, that's pretty much my thought process too. If Crouch can't get back into the team it makes it an easy call, even though his BE's are more attainable than Flipper's.

          Having said that, Flipper may well survive the cull and stay as valuable bench cover for SC finals, given he seems locked into the Lions lineup. Can't necessarily say the same for the other rooks coming through.

    • 28/05/2014 at 10:42
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      Good trades mate….do it…

      Goddard is a value pick IMO….

      Cheers,
      Raj…

  • 28/05/2014 at 09:55
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    Looking to upgrade macrae, can afford anyone really,

    Mid: Beams, Pendles, Goddard, Rockliff, Selwood, Libba, Wines, Macrae, (Acres, Shenton)

    Thinking either JPK this week or GAJ next week after a hopeful price drop.
    With another downgrade next week might be able to do both and swap out wines for GAJ, thoughts Community?

    • 28/05/2014 at 10:23
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      Macfrae for GAJ is pretty obvious, however given that your mid line is already full, what about filling def & fwd lines before doing the luxury upgrade to Wines in the middle, he going gangbusters and has Melb and StKilda this week and next?

      • 28/05/2014 at 17:15
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        You could wait 2 or 3 weeks on gaz until his price is closer to 670

  • 28/05/2014 at 10:54
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    Breust or Dahlhaus?

    • 28/05/2014 at 12:15
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      Dahl. Gets more of the pill

    • 28/05/2014 at 12:35
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      dahl – on proviso you don't think doggies run in next few weeks isn't too hard.

    • 28/05/2014 at 13:23
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      Dahlhaus

  • 28/05/2014 at 10:58
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    Libba or StevieJ?

    • 28/05/2014 at 11:13
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      No point bringing in either IMO, stevie J will be 80k cheaper in a fortnight and you've missed the boat on Libba and paying overs! His scores will steadily even out. If you are keen on Libba then look at Fyfe, better value for $$ IMO. If you want 2 cheap options that i think will go well than look at Goddard or Barlow. I am trading Langdon for Barlow this week because i am $10k short to get Selwood and only want to use 1 trade! He is a proven 110 point average player and Freo have a very easy run coming up. Shouldnt be rested as they will want to get as much fitness into him as possible after coming back from injury! His break even is high this week but i reckon you will find him in crimmo's "get him in" section next week after he tons up and has low BE!!

  • 28/05/2014 at 11:43
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    Hey Guys.

    Thoughts on Kane Mitchell??

    • 28/05/2014 at 12:39
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      everyone told me ignore, get cam shenton instead.
      I was going to, but that left me with a mid-pricer on bench wasting his score really.
      if u need a M8, get him tho

        • 28/05/2014 at 13:16
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          Mids are currently
          Ablett, Pendles, Beams, Fyfe, Libba, Selwood, Wines, Hallahan (Acres, Michie)

          Was thinking of Wines to Mitchell for a few weeks then upgrading Mitchell and Hallahan to JPK and Ward.

          • 28/05/2014 at 14:08
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            Safer bet would be to go with shenton as his low price and could make just as much money, but Mitchell job security dosn’t look the best at all I’m leaning towards shenton myself

          • 29/05/2014 at 06:45
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            Wines is scoring very well this averaging over 100, given the next 4 games Port has he could go even bigger. Trading him for Mitchell will generate cash, but send your team backwards score wise to the tune of 20-30 pts. Not sure if you have other cash generation options but make sure you explore those before trying this one.

    • 28/05/2014 at 13:13
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      Waste of two trades – one to get him in and one to ditch him.

      Highly replaceable player in the Port team. Plenty of others that could take his spot.

    • 28/05/2014 at 13:26
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      He played 13 games last year and avg'd 49 on afl website. so not SC pts.
      Suggest he is playing above his weight this year, but in same role?
      IMO – if you just want to make some money, which seems the case cos you want wines out for Mitchell, perhaps pick someone else. wines and Mitchell should score around the same if they both play so you aren't going to necessarily get a points kick out of this…

    • 28/05/2014 at 13:42
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      Looks nice to make 100k+ but his job security and sub potential is a risk that would just be better to avoid but he could be a nice stepping stone to get closer to a premo.

      • 28/05/2014 at 13:44
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        Thanks lads! Much appreciated.

  • 28/05/2014 at 12:51
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    what to do with fasolo?

    • 28/05/2014 at 12:56
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      HOLD…..

  • 28/05/2014 at 13:01
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    Some feed me back on my side

    Backs:
    Simpson, Bartel, swallow, R Murphy, walker, landon
    Georgiou, Cutler

    Mids:
    God, kennedy, Beams, Selwoood, M Murphy, Prestia, Heppell, Swan
    hartung, Acres

    Rucks:
    Sandilands, jacobs
    Thurlow, King

    Forwards:
    danger, martin, daulhaus, Zorko, Roughead, Lloyd
    Ambrose, cameron

    ranked 2,565
    95k in the bank

    • 28/05/2014 at 13:05
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      am i god?

      • 28/05/2014 at 13:07
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        yes you your son is gary

    • 28/05/2014 at 13:31
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      I see there is another who is feeling the pain of Bob Murphy's rubbish of late. R u considering moving him up to just say a Hibberd when his price drops or are u going to stick fat with him?

      • 28/05/2014 at 17:12
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        I got him for a reason as my d6, so and average of 90 is what im exoecting, so ill stick fat with him, also what costed him getting 20 points better was his accuracy, think 1 goal 4 from memory, so that is a factor

    • 29/05/2014 at 07:02
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      Well done Decca! Only issue I can see is cash generation. Although given you only need to upgrade 1 fwd & def to be full premo, you don't exactly need heaps. Maybe Acres to Shenton to bring in a cow and DPP, and then cash in two of him, Cameron, Ambrose, Hartung and Lloyd in a few weeks?

      Langdon up to Malceski, or Johnson is affordable this week as well, and means you have just one spot left to fill down fwd. You could also consider Guthrie given Geelongs soft run but given your side has a few PODs already, then the other two make more sense IMO.

      • 29/05/2014 at 10:18
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        thanks Gargles, i dont exactly have many trades left,
        i was thinking trading him but i do believe michael johnson could be rested come later in the year and also was planning on gettting mcveigh meaning ill have 4 of the top 6 defenders for the year, yeah guthrie is one i was looking at but with johnson coming back may not play as much midfield time,

  • 28/05/2014 at 13:17
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    What are peoples thoughts on these trades:

    Higgins to Shenton
    Langdon to Simpson

    Will leave me with $125k.

    • 28/05/2014 at 13:28
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      I think the horse may have bolted on Kade Simpson as he is now up to 560k. I'm a Blues fan and surely some attention will go to Simpson as in the last few weeks no-one has bothered to introduce themselves to him from the opposition. I think there is a lot better value in the defensive line and I would much rather invest 560k in a midfielder.

  • 28/05/2014 at 13:23
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    Ok this has very much changed my trading plans, it would seem everyone's defence at this point is pretty similar so I'm considering some defensive premo POD's as an upgrade from Langdon. What do people think of Malceski and Burgoyne who are picked by few teams in the top 100

    • 28/05/2014 at 13:57
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      I like them both

    • 28/05/2014 at 15:29
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      Good picks, but there's probly a reason the top 100 players have the line ups they have

    • 29/05/2014 at 07:07
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      Malceski, Johnson, Guthrie are all good options. North Freo and Geelong all have cushy runs into the finals so players from those teams should be high on everyone's radar. With Clarkson gone, I am unsure on bringing in Hawks, may not change them much but who knows?

  • 28/05/2014 at 13:43
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    Haven't heard much on Jobe Watson, break even of 50 this week, just some food for thought for anyone looking to bring in a premo mid this week.

    Thoughts??

    • 28/05/2014 at 13:51
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      I think people are just going for the value pick in Goddard and don't want to double up on Bombers, given the team's form.

      Could be a good POD as a result.

  • 28/05/2014 at 13:48
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    Hey I need some serious help community, I was in the top 1000 and then the byes and injuries came and blew me away far from the top 1000, Gotta see if Mcevoy lines up otherwise thinking of trading to nic nat and maybe loyd to thurlow to create the dpp for dixon to cover in rucks, Wish loud played a few more games. I don't have much cash to work with, What 2 trades do you think I should make this week, all suggestions welcome

    1. Langdon, T

    2. Walker, A

    3. Enright, C

    4. Langford, W

    5. Tippett, J

    6. Clurey, T

    23. McVeigh, J

    24. Hanley, P

    Midfielders
    7. Ablett, G

    8. Beams, D

    9. Selwood, J

    10. Liberatore, T

    11. Murphy, M

    12. Cotchin, T

    13. Swan, D

    14. Hartung, B

    25. Kennedy, J

    26. Acres, B

    Rucks
    15. Sandilands, A

    16. Dixon, C

    27. McEvoy, B

    28. King, M

    Forwards
    17. Dangerfield, P

    18. Martin, D

    19. Pavlich, M

    20. Higgins, S

    21. Rioli, C

    22. Lloyd, S

    29. Ambrose, P

    30.Cameron, C

    • 29/05/2014 at 09:32
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      Downgrade Rioli and Langdon to Shenton and Bews to free cash up. Then if McEvoy does come up next week maybe look at bringing in Thurlow, but with the cash you should look at doing a couple of upgrades in the backline or forward line… Players like Bartel, Gray, Parker and Simpson should be high on your shopping list.

  • 28/05/2014 at 13:58
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    I am considering this trade too if he isn’t picked. If it’s just a corky he should b right to go

  • 28/05/2014 at 14:45
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    Zorko…..is he a keeper or not?…

    • 28/05/2014 at 17:09
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      Keeper, had gastro thats why he played so shit

    • 29/05/2014 at 07:08
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      Keep, he wouldn't have played but Patfull and Rockliff were even worse.

  • 28/05/2014 at 17:12
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    G'day community, I've only got 12 trades left and i was thinking to bring shenton into my team this weak for acres or lloyd. What do you think

    • 28/05/2014 at 20:14
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      yes for acres

  • 28/05/2014 at 17:13
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    whats the communities thoughts on keeping or trading acres??

    • 28/05/2014 at 20:13
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      trade (if you have the trades to spare)

  • 28/05/2014 at 17:14
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    Ablett to watson
    Ambrose/ fasolo to roughead (should get 150 this week)

    Watson starting to hit form, also reckon he can aveage over 120 here on out, and ablett wont avage 140 for the season we know he will have a few bad games,
    I know this a very risky pick, but just want to hear peoples thoughts on this ?

    • 28/05/2014 at 17:44
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      Why get rid of Ablet after one average game, before that he had not scored below 120.

      • 28/05/2014 at 20:05
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        Ita not that, want to upgrade other areas

    • 28/05/2014 at 20:15
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      crazy talk!

  • 28/05/2014 at 20:01
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    $42,600 in the bank. Tyson is my M8, so I'll finish my midfield in a week or so. I still have Pyke who still won't play, so I might just keep playing Derickx in the meantime as R2.

    1 – Polec to Shenton

    Here is my backline and forward line to give an idea.

    Backs – McVeigh, Bartel, Swallow, Burgoyne, Langdon, Cutler (Georgiou, Clurey)

    Forwards – Dangerfield, Martin, Wingard, Pavlich, Higgins, Cameron (Lloyd, Ambrose)

    Langdon and Higgins look like they are good to trade, but my coverage down back is weak. Thinking of holding onto Higgins and Langdon to give me some solid scoring on the field. I could upgrade Higgins or Langdon, and will leave me a bit of cash in the bank.

    2a – Georgiou to Hibberd
    2b – Lloyd to Parker or Gray
    2c – Higgins/Langdon to anyone up forward/back leaving me with a lot more money in the bank

    I like 2a or 2b, just because I would prefer Langdon or Higgins to be by F6 or D6 as opposed to a Cutler or Cameron and then I can play with Higgins and Langdon next week.

    So many questions, and I'm leaning towards upgrading down back because of my lack of bench coverage, but Gray/Parker seems so much more appealing than Hibberd.

    • 29/05/2014 at 09:35
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      I like the Higgins to Parker/Gray option as it will leave you more money in the bank and Lloyd still has money to make. Maybe wait for the teams to come out before you make your final decision.

  • 28/05/2014 at 20:16
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    Hey guys want to get shenton in to make some cash.
    Only problem is who to get out.
    Option 1 – crouch in the centre line
    Option 2 – fa solo in the fwd line.

    If I choose option 1 it would mean I have 2 saints players in the mids bench. Aish being the other man. Would that be a problem?

    Cheers

    • 29/05/2014 at 01:07
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      Could be a problem for the AFL if Aish suddenly changes clubs mid season 😉 Acres should be fine though! I’ll be going that way and hoping Acres provides late season cover.

  • 29/05/2014 at 13:39
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    what to do with Corey Enright? should i trade him out but for who? i got $7,300 in the bank.

    also i thinking to trade Sam Lloyd ($221,500) out for Shenton ($155,300)
    please help. thanks

  • 19/07/2014 at 08:28
    Permalink

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