Tight Arse Tuesday, Round 9
Hello again community! ITS BACK. It gives me great pleasure to present you with this Tight Arse Tuesday for round 9.
Now before we get into it, I just want to address some of the wild rumours that have spread around the inter-web about my where about over the last two weeks.
I have heard that the Mad Irishman got so frustrated with Lance Franklin’s Supercoach output that he tracked him down in Sydney, and when Lance spotted him, he took off at high speed, losing control of his car and crashing into four others. Since then the Irishman has gone into hiding until this whole thing blows over.
Another rumour going around is that after losing a crucial game against a long term rival by just 1point, in the same round that Mitchel scored 9 and his opponent didn’t have him, the Mad Irishman drank himself into a whiskey induced coma. Although this is far more plausible than the first rumour I’m afraid neither is true.
The simple and boring truth is that I died.
Yep, I died for the many sins committed, trading out Dangerfield, trading out Liberatore, starting with Watts and Franklin. I died only to rise again to lead my people from darkness into the light. Oh no wait, now that I think about it, I think that was some other fellow……… Maybe I was in a whiskey induced coma!
Now I know this will be obvious to the most of you but we should really only be trading in players that have already had their bye. There is no point in trading in a player this week that is going to miss next.
For that reason I will only be looking at players who just came off their bye over the next few weeks, starting today with the round 8 bye players.
Average to date 83.3
Current Price $438,100
Priced to Average 85
Those who know me well know that I hate paying over the odds for defenders. After this season I might just add forwards into this mix as well.
Defenders are notorious for losing value, and while this year you have some more Midfield options down back, with Bartel, McVeigh, Simpson, Mitchel etc, the rest have really been super inconsistent and all the top end guys have lost bucket loads of value. Even Bartel, McVeigh, Simpson and Mitchel have all lost value from the start of the year. Granted you do probably need at least one or two of McVeigh, Bartel and Simpson, all three would be a bonus but the rest of your back line should be filled with smart choices at good value, to allow you to fill out your Midfield with the guys that really bring in the big scores.
Now I normally like to feature guys in this segment with low breakevens but as it is the bye rounds that’s a little harder to do, and thus we are probably looking at Corey a week too soon. However don’t be put off by his relatively high breakeven, he is only likely to drop 5-10k after this week so you won’t be saving all that much by holding and if you really need a defender this week, paying an extra premium of 10k isn’t all that much of a trade-off.
I consider anything under $450,000 a value pick down back and Corey finds himself meeting this criteria with 12k to spare. He has dropped $68,700 so far this year to find himself at his current price. For those of you unfamiliar with Enright, he has been one of the most consistent back men in the comp and in the days of 7 defenders on field, he was once a must have player in most Supercoach teams.
You have to travel all the way back to 2005 for a season when Corey averaged less than 90pts. In that time frame his lowest average was 92 and his highest was 101. It is little wonder why he is know as Corey Stanard Deviation Enright. He is also quite durable, playing more than 20 games a year over the last 8 years.
So why is he so cheap now?
He suffered a twisted angle in round 2 and was subbed off in the third quarter on a score of 67. He only missed one round but once he had this reasonably low score out of his rolling average he had a stinker against Port Adelaide scoring just 49. This score is still in his rolling average and hence why he has a high breakeven of 112 going into this round. He did back this score up with a solid 102 in his next hit out against the Tigers.
I know what you’re thinking though. If he scored so low before, what’s to say it won’t happen again? If your thinking this might be a sign of a decline in the aging Enright, well then these signs have been here before. Like all defenders, he too is prone to a couple of snickers a year. In 2012 for example he had scores of 47 and 49 and he still managed to average 94 for the year. Bad scores happen but it’s the average that really tells the story.
I would be worried if I saw a role change for Corey but all is the same down at Geelong, and Corey continues to play off the half back in a very successful team. The Cats will win most weeks and when they do, Corey will excel with cheap possessions as Geelong chip it around when they have the game wrapped up. They have been doing it for years and it’s a formula that doesn’t seem to change. I don’t see it as a coincidence that the one game Geelong lost this year was the game Corey had a snicker. I however would back the Cats to go at least 12 and 4 for the rest of the year, and against some of the weakers sides I’d expect a few more tonnes from Mr Enright.
The Mad Irishman’s Verdict
2014 Predicted Status: Strong Midpricer
Predicted Average from here on out: 92-96pts
Enright will never be in that top bracket of defenders but you couldn’t ask for a better D5 or D6 selection. Just take a look at defenders this year and only 7 are averaging over 100. I’d expect a few of those to drop down too, with the likes of Hocker unlikely to stay at such heights. After that the averages drop away quite shapely so it really makes no sense to spend top dollar on you D5 and D6 positions. Good safe bets at value prices are the way to go and there are few better than Enright at this current stage of the season.
Current Price $555,700
Priced to Average 107
Now as I said above I normally like to feature guys in this segment with low breakevens but just like Corey above, Joel too has a very high breakeven. A little more worrying he also has a tricky opponent coming up this week, but I’ll get to that a little later. However if you are desperate for a midfielder this week and you are in the business of looking at the bigger picture, then I could argue you will be definitely picking yourself a top 5 player, if you go with Selwood this week.
I consider anything around the $550,000 a value pick for a high end Midfielder and Joel finds himself just above this price this week. He has dropped $83,000 so far this year to find himself at his current price. Before I go any further I just want to remind you what Joel Selwood has produced in SC since his debut season in 2007. He showed great improvement in his first two years and elevated to an Elite Premium in 2009 where he has been ever since.
So why is he so cheap now?
Joel started the year in fine form, averaging 140 over the first 4 games. However since then he has failed to crack the supercoach tonne, with scores of 83, 82 and 93 in his last three rounds. Has this surprised me? Well actually, no it hasn’t. What did surprise me is the fact that he had such a great start to the year.
What we must remember is that Joel has had a very limited preseason, and he was in a moon boot only a week out from the start of the season. I suspect that his limited preseason may have caught up with him over the last few weeks and hence his drop off in output.
So the question now is can we trust he can get back to that early season form?
This is why I love drawing on stats from yesteryear because more often than not the answer can be found within the numbers.
I don’t know if any of you remember last year but something very similar happened with Joel. He started the year really well but was carrying a knock right up to his bye in round 12 of last year and dropped right down with his supercoach output.
After a simple weeks rest, it was a completely different Selwood that finished out the year, pushing very close to a first Brownlow medal and most importantly for us Supercoaches averaging a whopping 129.6 for the rest of the year, and this even included a 54 against an old foe.
I’m excited community, I really am.
I can see something very similar happening again this season. I fully believe that Joel was a little underdone coming into the season and that the bye will have come at a perfect time for him. The fact that there are two byes this year makes me even more excited, as it will give him another chance to recuperate and rejuvenate later in the year.
However there is one ugly “BUT” coming your way. With such a high breakeven and the fact that he is playing Fremantle and Ryan Crowley this week, it might be best to let him go for just one more week if you can. That 54 I spoke about above was against Fremantle last year in round 14, where Crowley wore him like a glove. He has never really done all the well against Crowley and he is definitely a bogy player for Selwood. In the 7 games he has played against Fremantle he has only averaged 79 Supercoach points. Easily the lowest of any team he has played, with only the Saints, where he averages 99 the only other team he doesn’t average over a 100 points against. Now there is a good chance that in the current form that Steve Johnson finds himself in, that Crowley will go to him and not Selwood but too be honest is that a risk you will be willing to take?
The Mad Irishman’s Verdict
2014 Predicted Status: Super Elite
Predicted Average from here on out: 121-125pts
Will bounce back from a poor run of late, as I suspect he was a little under done and the bye will do him the world of good. Expect to see the output we have come to expect from him return and I am banking on him joining the Super Elites for the first time this year. Might be a better option after he plays Fremantle this week but I wouldn’t be afraid to go now if you really need a midfielder this week. I’m not one to throw out ridiculously high predictions, like some other pundits so take note community. What you do with those notes is up to you, but Selwood is coming into the Mayhem .. cough .. next week!
Stay tuned ….
Mick the Mad Irishman
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