The Machine turns $30 into $57.60
Round 6 was a fascinating fight. While the Sportsbet lines just beat The Machine by 0.61 per game line, The Machine won five of its six bets this week. Our starting $100 bank has now grown to $127.40 ….. an impressive 6 week investment return.
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Round 6 output statistics;
| Round 6 | Winner | Margin | Machine Error | Sportsbet Error |
| Coll. V Ess. | Coll. | 23 | 0 | 9.5 |
| Saints V BRL | Bris. | 3 | 21 | 5.5 |
| Freo V NMFC | NMFC | 13 | 31 | 29.5 |
| GCFC V GWS | GCFC | 40 | 8 | 25.5 |
| Carl V WCE | Carlton | 3 | 9 | 6.5 |
| Melb V Sydney | Syd | 31 | 25 | 11.5 |
| Dogs V Crows | Crows | 9 | 12 | 1.5 |
| Rich. V Hawks | Hawks | 66 | 40 | 33.5 |
| Port V Cats | Port | 40 | 27 | 44.5 |
| Average Game Error | 19.22 | 18.61 |
Round 6 Summary Table;
| The Machine GAME ERORR | Sporstbet GAME ERROR | No. Bets | Wins | Profit/Loss | Bank (Starting with $100) | |
| Rd.1 | 40.95 | 38.55 | 5 | 3 | $3.80 | $103.80 |
| Rd.2 | 31.4 | 24.1 | 6 | 2 | -$10.80 | $93.00 |
| Rd.3 | 31.78 | 34.83 | 3 | 2 | $4.20 | $97.20 |
| Rd.4 | 52.44 | 55.83 | 5 | 3 | $3.80 | $101.00 |
| Rd.5 | 28.78 | 29.72 | 6 | 3 | -$1.20 | $99.80 |
| Rd.6 | 19.22 | 18.61 | 6 | 5 | $27.60 | $127.40 |
| 39.14 | 38.33 | 31 | 18 |
This week’s ROUND 7 Bets;
| Round 7 | Formulated Winner | Formulated Margin | Sportsbet Line | Diff. | BET | |
| 1 | Carl. V Coll. | Coll. | 25 | 24.5 | 0.5 | No bet |
| 2 | Hawks V Saints | Hawks | 23 | 53.5 | 30.5 | $5 SAINTS at line |
| 3 | GWS V Port | Port | 64 | 47.5 | 16.5 | $5 PORT at line |
| 4 | Crows V Dees | Crows | 68 | 45.5 | 22.5 | $5 CROWS at line |
| 5 | Bris. V Sydney | Sydney | 24 | 28.5 | 4.5 | No bet |
| 6 | Ess. V Dogs | Essendon | 12 | 22.5 | 10.5 | No bet |
| 7 | NMFC V GCFC | NMFC | 8 | 26.5 | 18.5 | $5 GCFC at line |
| 8 | Cats V Tigers | Cats | 19 | 29.5 | 10.5 | No bet |
| 9 | WCE V Freo. | WCE | 4 | -12.5(Freo. Fav) | 16.5 | $5 WCE at line |
WCE to beat FREO?
I do worry about this result and also disappointed that there is no line bet for this evening’s game. However, I must follow the system as mapped out at the beginning of this challenge (click here to see betting rules).
Mother and I have discussed the void left by a no Friday night wager and have decided to take Sportsbet’s $1.88 on the total game points being OVER 165.5. We are forecasting a shootout and expect even Travis to propel a few parabolic arcs through the 7 yards (6.4m) that separates the two goal posts.
Enjoy this weekend of football.
Regards,
Peter Higginbotham
10 Comments
Owen · 02/05/2014 at 16:31
Hey Higgo, I suppose you don't take weather into account for these line determinations. Got any idea of how much an impact of a rainy day would have on bringing the line closer. I'm thinking that if it pours in Canberra GWS will be likely to be much closer.
toonking · 02/05/2014 at 16:58
its going to rain Higgo tonight so I'd be careful about taking $1.88….that goes for mother too
John · 02/05/2014 at 19:31
Thanks Higgo – This was perfect timing. Got a free $20 bet for tipping exact winning margin of last Friday nights game and whacked the first 4 of your 5 on with that so no risk.
dognino · 02/05/2014 at 20:25
I've been having some luck betting on the qtr time lines, especially if they're under 6 point spreads
Dee · 03/05/2014 at 13:58
I reckon St. Kilda +56.5 is a sure thing today on TAB…. It's raining, mite even be an upset on the cards. Go Saints!
medadsson · 03/05/2014 at 23:29
No such thing as a 'sure thing', just ask Brendan Sanderson 🙂
Dustbin Feltchers · 03/05/2014 at 14:43
ah the ups and downs of supercoach….on fire after coll car match…pendles beams langdon murph…then its hits….mitchell hamstring, impey sub, wingard (in for fasolo, thanks higgo!) done nothing….just need matt crouch to be sub to top it off!!
skate or die · 03/05/2014 at 19:24
oh no Higgo.. system down major tom.
dognino · 04/05/2014 at 19:05
So I put $10 on each game, on the 1st qtr line for each of the favourite teams. I missed the Gold Coast game cos I just plain forgot , but ended up getting 6/8 . Not a bad little experiment, I'm sure it won't pay off every week tho
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