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Tight Arse Tuesday, Round 5

Published by Jock on

mick-the-mad

I had a bottle of 18year old Jameson Irish Whiskey gifted to me on my 21st Birthday, unopened sitting proudly on the top shelve of my liquor cabinet.

I opened it when Currie was a late out on Sunday afternoon and it was empty long before my final Supercoach score of 1931 went into the system on Sunday night. I had traded Currie in as an emergency for the late out of Mumford on the Saturday. That was breaking point for me.

Oh how the Supercoach Gods toy with us mere mortals. I signed off last week’s article with a line that has now come back to kick me right between the legs, and oh does it hurt. I said:

“Back your men in. I’m betting those holes aren’t as big as you think they are!”

It’s as if the Supercoach Gods took offense to this and decided to wreak havoc on our sides. So for all those of you that had Hanley, Goddard, Leuenberger, the Mumford/Currie combo, Nic Nait, Caddy, Franklin and a whole host of under performing premiums, I say sorry. I’ll take responsibility for this one. Never again will I temp faith by putting out a comment like that one again.

And the pain doesn’t stop there either with the news last night Mitchell now becomes a doubt this week after the Hawks revealed he has had scans on a mystery injury. Not that I’d say it’s much of a mystery, as he did miss round 2 with a tight calf. Add Liam Shiels into that now.

In fact, we’re all f**ked.

Yep, it’s probably just best to quit now and never play this game again.

ARE YOU HAPPY NOW SUPERCOACH GODS? Does it please you that I’m down on my knees, a broken man, with more holes in my team than Carlton’s playing list! Are you happy now almighty Gods… Are you.. Are you!

Well I know that’s what you want, for me to throw in the towel but it’s not just me almighty ones, for I have a flock to look after, to guide, to provide advice on top selections at affordable “Tight Arse Tuesday” prices. I must go on, not for me but for the Jock Reynolds Community.

It’s time for Round 5 TAT.

For all of you with Hanley in your backline I know a lot of you will probably consider going Jaensch this week and banking a $100k. It’s not a terrible idea but it would be one I’d issue caution with. Last week I talked about Jaensch in great detail and even though he’s now gone four tonnes in a row I still stand by my verdict of last week. He’s now gone up $116k and I think you may be trading into trouble here. I’d advise to go a straight swap to a proven premium, or if the diagnosis is 1-2weeks then do your best to hold.

Last week’s recap on Jaensch

2014 Predicted Status: Strong Midpricer

Predicted Average from here on out: 86-90pts

Final Word:

There is still value in Jaensch at his current price but the big question you should be asking yourself is he going to be a keeper for the year and thus worth the trade now. I can’t see him finishing in the top 10 defenders for the year and that is why I won’t be considering him this week. However if you still have some horror selections in your backline Jaensch just might be the man to fill a hole, just don’t expect premium output every week.

The ruck provides us with even more problems. When Aaron Sandilands is looking like he is the most reliable ruckman you do have to question if somehow your been sucked into some weird and strange parallel universe. Next you’ll be telling me Melbourne beat Carlton .. oh wait what .. where am I?

If you have some cover this week I’d hold. Right now Ruck options look limited with not too many good options out there. The premiums are not performing to the heights they have in the past with the likes of Goldstien (avg88) and Big Will Minson (avg93) well down on their previous best. I know Jock is a big fan of Jacobs and he does seem to be the best premium option out there right now.

In the Tight Arse department there are a few options, but none I would be tipping for long term stability and consistent scoring.

Hamish McIntosh

4 Round Average 82.67

Breakeven 49

Current Price $375,600

Priced to Average 72

Mad Mick’s Verdict

2014 Predicted Status: Midpricer
Predicted Average from here on out: 82-86pts

Final Word:

I would have said Hamish is a good option if he was the sole Ruckman at Geelong but right now they are running with both Hamish and Dawson Simpson. He had his lowest score for the year at the weekend of 63. I don’t think that will become the norm but running with 2 ruckmen will limit his ceiling to around the 100 mark and thus he will struggle to push his average up past 90. Keep an eye on teams and if Geelong change tactics and go in with just Hamish, I’d jump on.

Trent West

4 Round Average 81

Breakeven 34

Current Price $363,900

Priced to Average 70

Mad Mick’s Verdict

2014 Predicted Status: Midpricer

Predicted Average from here on out: 78-82pts

Final Word:

You might think that with Leuenberger going down with a serious knee injury that Trent West would now become relevant. After all he will most likely ruck solo for the rest of the year. However just because he is a sole ruckman doesn’t mean he’ll be a good ruckman. Trent has been in the system now for 5 yrears and his best average to date has been 76. He also has a horrid injury record only playing more than 13 games in a season once. Being really optimistic I can see him grabbing this opportunity with two hands and doing his role well for the Lions. However he isn’t going to turn into a 30+ hitout, 15+ possessions, 3+ tackle ruckman that will see his supercoach stocks rise. To give you an idea what to expect he averaged 21 hitouts, 9.8 possessions and 0.9 tackles a game in 2013. He will improve but not enough to warrant a pick up now.

Shaun Hampson

3 Round Average 94.33

Breakeven 30

Current Price $370,600

Priced to Average 71

Mad Mick’s Verdict

2014 Predicted Status: Midpricer

Predicted Average from here on out: 80-84pts

Final Word:

Shaun started the year really well as Richmonds number one ruck in the absence of Ivan Maric, scoring 107 in both round 1 and 2. He then missed round 3 with a knee injury and returned on the weekend scoring just 69 against Collingwood. If he was going to be the Tigers ruckman all year I might consider him but unfortunately for us Maric is due to return in 2-3weeks and Hampson’s hitout points will dry right up as he goes back to being a key position player, most likely competing with Tyrone Vickery for his place in the side. If you did what a short term solution to your current ruck problems then Hampson could be your man. However you will only get a few weeks of consistent output from him before you will have to look to move him on and for me; this would be a wasted trade.

Tom Hickey

3 Round Average 96

Breakeven 9

Current Price $357,600

Priced to Average 69

Mad Mick’s Verdict

2014 Predicted Status: Strong Midpricer

Predicted Average from here on out: 89-94pts

Final Word:

For me Tom offers the best value in the tight arse range of ruckman listed above. That’s not to say that he doesn’t come with some risk too. He missed last week with a corked calf but I have to wonder if he has another issue with his foot as he seemed to struggle against the West Coast Eagles in round 3. Longer came into the side last week to replace Hickey and if they continue with both Hickey and Longer in the same side this week I would tend to read into this that Hickey isn’t a 100% fit. On the other hand if he comes back in and Longer goes out I would consider bringing in Hickey. He is not the best in the bread and butter stats only averaging 19 hitouts a game but he offers a lot more than most other ruckmen around the ground. He is averaging 14 disposals, 5 marks, 2.7 tackles and a goal a game in his three games this year. Fully fit he is a good option but if Longer is named this week I would take that as a sign he isn’t fully fit, and let him slide too.

Caddy, Caddy, Caddy, oh what do we do with Caddy. If you are like me and jumped on Caddy after a strong preseason and signs of midfield time opening up at Geelong, you will have been as disappointed as me with his output in the early rounds and then to be named sub on Saturday night, just topped it all. With this last sub affected score running through his rolling average he will no longer be making us any money and now it’s time to move him on. I’ll take inspiration from Jason Derulo for this next pick up.

I’m going solo, I’m going Fasolo.

Alex Fasolo

2 Round Average 89

Breakeven -59

Current Price $213,600

Priced to Average 41

Alex is on the bubble this week after missing the first two rounds of this year as he continued to recover from a fracture in his navicular bone that also prevented him from playing most of last year. He has come back into the side with a new role across the halfback that has me very excited. He has also been in the system now for 3 years and going into his fourth season at age 21 he is definitely in that breakout zone.

TAT_1

As Alex has really only played two seasons, both as a forward prior to this year it is very hard to read into any of his past AFL stats. I have given you his stats below to show you where is current supercoach scores are coming from.

TAT_2

He is currently averaging 18.5 possessions, running at 73%, 3 tackles and 2 clearances a game over the first 2 rounds. Not the flashiest of stats by any means but it’s what I seen at the weekend that has me excited. Sitting as the free man behind the ball picking up 20 disposals, using it well at 80% with 11 kicks, 4 inside 50’s and 2 goal assists.

Considering this was only his second game in this role you would expect him to grow into the role as the year goes on. Buckley likes him and more importantly likes him in his new role across the half back. If you remember there used be somebody by the name of Heath Shaw that played such a role before.

TAT_3

As you can see their stats are quite similar already but I’d expect as the year goes on these will match up even more and more importantly Heath managed to average 96.9 supercoach points a game for Collingwood in 2013

The Mad Irishman’s Verdict

2014 Predicted Status: Strong Midpricer

Predicted Average from here on out: 88-92pts

Final Word:

With the very limited forward rookie options this year I would recommend we jump all over Fasolo this week. He is unlikely to be a keeper all year long but at his starting price and potential to score well playing across the half back he makes a great downgrade option, and is likely to at least match some of those so called premiums we have selected up forward.

Mathew Pavlich – (Pick of the Week)

4 Round Average 90.75

Breakeven 22

Current Price $438,900

Priced to Average 84

I love me a fallen premium and now that we are entering upgrade time this is where I start to pick them off. I really wanted to go Pavlich from the start but unfortunately I just could squeeze him in. I have watched him every week and to my surprise and delight I can still get him for around the same price as at the start of the year, as he’s only gone up $1.400 after the first 4 rounds.

So why is he so cheap now?

He actually played really well in the first round and had he kicked straight he would have tonned up no problem. Instead he kicked one goal and 4 behinds to score 80. The second game was in the wet and all the supercoach points went to the midfield group who were winning the contested ball at the breakdown. I’d put a line through his score of 61 due to the conditions. He then scored a 97 from kicking 4 goals in a heavy loss to Hawthorn in round 3, easily Fremantle’s best player on the night. Then on the weekend gone by, he amassed 125 supercoach points in the win over Essendon, accumulating 20 touches and kicking 3 goals, looking every bit the premium player he has proven to be during the years.

TAT_4

Just take a quick walk down memory lane to see that Pavlich was once a must have player in this competition. Now he seems to me a bit of a forgotten man, currently just in 10% of teams. I’m not sure if people were put off by his average last year but what people need to remember it was very much an injury affected year, playing just 9 games and only getting a run of four games together over the last four games of the home and away season.

If we go back another year to 2012 in Ross Lyons first year as coach of Fremantle we can see that when Pavlich is up and running he can really put a string of really high scores together.

TAT_5

As you can see from round 13 on when Fremantle really started gelling under Ross Lyon, Pavlich had a run of games where he scored over a 100 in 9 out of 10 games. In the same period Fremantle won 7 of those games. Fast forward two more years and Fremantle under Ross Lyon are easily a top 4 side, and most likely a top 2 side. I don’t expect them to lose too many games this year and from watching Pavlich over the first 4 games I feel like he is ready to explode back into that 2012 form.

The Mad Irishman’s Verdict

2014 Predicted Status: Premium

Predicted Average from here on out: 101-105pts

Final Word:

He is a key position forward so you’d have to expect a few low scores throughout the year. On the flip side his ceiling is massive and I’m sure he will kick a bag of 6 or 7 in some game this year and score 160+. He will be more consistent than some other key position players and I think he’s easily in the top 10 forwards for the year. This might be the last chance you get to get him under $450k so I’d me jumping on if I were you. I know I am.

Stay tuned ….

Mick the Mad Irishman

Click here to tune in to Sunday night’s podcast and also note – WEDNESDAY community night podcast this week!


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Swans2014

Fasolo looks the goods! straight swap for Impey

cyril

yep sounds good

Christmas In July

My. Team. Is. Stuffed.

GarglesnarfFC

Yep so is mine. Get in the queue, coz this weeks a horror for many of us.

I am going to keep Mummy, I have Derickx as cover of sorts, so unless the Swans drop him I won't burn a trade there. I did Hurn to Hanley last week, so I am thinking I will bugger up Jaensch for everyone this week by trading him in.

Lastly, I think I will cull Rohan for for Fasolo. That fixes two of the half a dozen disaster areas. TMitchell and Buddy can wait for another day.

wes

love the name – garglesnarf!!! awesome!!!!!

wes

am changing my brother's dog's name to that now…

Millsy56

What do you think of Brodie Smith as a replacement for Hanley?

throttlefinger

Well Mick, well done. You've effectively talked me out of West for Mummy. Was on shaky foundation to begin with.

What do you think Lobbe as a replacement? Slow starter perhaps?

Fabian

In a similar boat to you throttle with needing to bring a ruck in. However the best replacement seems Jacobs, who I just can't afford to bring in given the Bye structures. Lobbe's right on my radar. Very tempted to trade to Nic Nat. Very stupid idea at first but I just can't see another "keeper" ruck that's not injured at the moment, so I will eventually need to make a second ruck trade anyway. As I type this sound dumber and dumber. Ah well, decisions decisions.

throttlefinger

That's my issue, Fabian. None of the moves feels right. Gut or brain wise. Seems a tad reactionary.

Feeling right now is to wait to hear GWS injury report and see if Currie makes 22. If Mummy is out just 1 more week, I'm sticking. And if 2 weeks, if Currie can cover, I'll stick as well. Feel Mummy will be top ruck at the end

THE SALTSHAKERS

When pies finally won the flag in 2010 i drank 700ml bottle of bourbon in 40mins, i didnt make it into town to celebrate the first round about made sure of that. Ended up puking out the back of a mates, passed out, woke up to an Alsatian sniffing my face, havent drunk since GO PIES! having said that fasolo looks real good down back, unfortunately i gotta pass for lloyd / rnd 8 byes not helpful – any ideas on titch mick?

cyril

Here's my side. In some strife as well as most.

Swallow, Suckling, Mitchell, Enright, McDonald, Langford (Georgio, Clurey

Ablett, Pendles, Libba, Beams, M.Thomas, Tyson, Polec, Dunstan, (Ellis, Kelly)

Sandi, Mcevoy (Derrickx, Thurlow)

Danger, Martin, Mitchell, Franklin, Caddy, Rohan (Ambrose, JHK)

My forward line is obviously in big trouble. I'm happy to give Mitchell and Buddy more time. Im banking on Mcevoy coming back in as predicted. I'm thinking of possibly getting in Crouch for Tyson which will make me enough to turn Caddy into Reiwoldt

any suggestions?

Kev

Good trades. Get rid of caddy anyway you can

Azmataz

Reiwoldts a good choice. Cant go wrong!

throttlefinger

Mick, if Mummy is out 2 more rounds and you have Currie, is he worth sticking fat with?

Ocker

I will see if I can find any reliable news for you mate.

Cheers.

throttlefinger

Thanks Ocker.

Feeling is if Mummy is out 1 more week, worth keeping. Or if Currie can cover for the next two. Lot of "ifs". Lot of "uggggggghs."

Ocker

Hopefully only one more and keep.

throttlefinger

Fingers will be very calloused at the end of the week from keeping them crossed.

Ocker

He had undergone a minor operation while the match was being played.
I have had this procedure done myself and I feel he may only be one week but they may be cautious and keep him out for 2. It is a Keyhole procedure and not serious.
Might know more later in the week.

Cheers.

throttlefinger

Read it was a drain and scoop. See what the GWS doc has to say. Hope plays next week…and SC gods are taking a weekend off.

throttlefinger

Pretty sure I'm sticking fat, Ocker. Move this week will be going Caddy to Pav and Webster to a rook (free cash to Pav). Have CCameron on bench who is injured so will use as loop with Langford for best score.

And through all of this, just hope Currie gets on the field. 2 donuts in a row will be hard to swallow (not literally, of course)

The Ranger

Bugger. I spent all of yesterday wondering wether to go to Lobbe or Jacobs.
Now you've got me thinking a hold might be the better option. It's ballsy.
I've only got Derickx as cover but I have to agree that a fit Mummy (not wordsI'm used to typing next to each other) is going to be right up there come seasons end.

throttlefinger

Mummy out 3-4 weeks now. Can't stay thick for that long. Bye Mummy.

Want to bring in Pav for Caddy. Leaves me with no money to swing to Jacobs. Man. This game can be so unforgiving some times, Ranger.

The Ranger

I've bleeding all over the field TF! Its damge limitation time.
Ah well, Mummy gone for that long at least takes a decision out of our hands.
I'm replacing my Mum with a bit of Sauce and ditching bloody Caddy for Fas.
At least t gives me a bit of cash to play with next week which I'm going to need!

Ocker

Another top article Mick, I heard a rumor that the Super-Coach gods are having a weekend off for Easter.

Will Eefting

Strike me down for saying this almighty Gods, but you have gone to blood far. Just about had it with this game.

SamuelScoach

Kept the faith in Pav, he rewarded me with 2 nice scores. Expect a 100 avg this year, as John Bruyn said: Pav will be this years Riewoldt

Cam_H

Fingers crossed Samuel!

Mick's recommended both Fasolo and Pavlich. I'm now opting for 'Caddy to Pavlich' due to my severe Round 8 bye problems, plus I keep farting around with rookies and up-and-coming mid-pricers with my trades and haven't added any premiums beyond my starting team.

Aaron

Hey all, what do you guys think of the trade of Langdon – suckling? I'm sick of relying on Langdon at d6 and I'm thinking this is the last week to get in suckling before he rises too much in price. My other trade is Thomas (dale) to fasolo using Taylor's dpp. Any thoughts?

Azmataz

Yeah i reckon Daisy to Fasolo is a good trade. Thats what Im doing also. Not sure about the Langdon to Suckling trade. Langdon has a BE of -6 and Not sure Suckling is a keeper. Which other defenders are on your bench?

Luke

Backs- McDonald, Langdon, enright, Hanley, Mitchell, swallow (georgiou, Langford)
Mids- Ablett, Libba, Cotchin, Beams, Tyson, Polec, Dunstan, Kelly (Michie, Ellis)
Rucks- Mumford, Sandi (Currie, Thurlow)
Forwards- T. Mitchell, Dangerfield, Zorko, Wingard, Merret, Lloyd (Rohan, Impey)
My thoughts on trades are Michie to crouch and Rohan to fasolo which then leaves me with 170k in the bank.
I also have mummy and Hanley as well as questionable performers such as T. Mitchell, libba and Cotchin
I was looking at trying to bring in dal santo who I believe will be in the top 10 kids at the years end but I feel these other picks are more important.
Would love the communities thoughts!!

Luke

270k in the bank my mistake

matt

yeah i like the look od dal santo, but even better like the look of heppell as he keeps inproviong and with a good looking essendon outfit think he could be top 10 aswell, and also cheaper

The Filth

Leave Libba and Cotchin – don't trade premiums in sideways trades looking for last weeks points. Libba average is 106.5. Cotchin is averaging 98 and wont have Macaffer every week. They will score okay over the season. Trades are gold.

Mitchell however I can understand 😉

matty d

jeansh or hibberd ? reckon jaesch as i get 100k more more my war chest

Bob McBob

If you want consistency go for Hibberd

Bob McBob

In the back end of the year, I mean…

Blueprime

Hibberd

Ocker

COOL CALM AND COLLECTED:
Yes that is how I spend my start to the week after a weekend of carnage and mayhem.
I have a look at my Super-Coach problems and how I am going to resolve them.
The spreadsheets are open looking at stats and how these changes I am considering affect my TEAM STRUCTURE and BYE STRATEGY.

Questions I Have To Ask Myself!
As if we don’t have enough players in the round 8 bye. Now we have the best rookie options in that round too. Grrrrrrrrrr. Can we get 18 players on the field for round 8?
We can’t afford not to have these rookies in our teams, Can we?
Matt Crouch = Job security or how many games will he get if managed and how is it going to affect Dangerfield’s mid field time if at all? (Oh well he’s a cash cow just use emergency loophole in the mid I need one)
Alex Fasolo, Averaged 75.52 in 2012 from 21 games, Does he fit in their best 22? With players coming back this weekend and following weeks? (Foot injury and suspension last year)
Sam Lloyd, Even though Dimma said that he will only use rookies as stop gaps this kid just turned 24 in March and he is a gun but think he will average about 75-80 from here on in if he plays. With Deledio coming back soon, Could he replace an out of form player? Dimma said only last week how important King is to the team. Which-ever you decide you have to wait until he is on the bubble and definitely playing the third game.

Easter Weekend we have games on Thursday, Saturday, Sunday and Monday. HELP!!.
I don’t think we are going to know final teams for Sunday and Monday before the Thursday game which could well leave us all with having to take a punt on team changes and late outs.

Am I stressing too much I might have another heart attack or another stroke, I want to put in a player in Monday’s game for an Injured Hanley. Could I be wasting a trade? (Of course not think positive)

Bugger I might not trade this week!!! But I need the cash too. Yes No, Yes No.

Have I missed the boat on Jaensch? Yes maybe. What am I talking about I have my own boat I just need an outboard motor instead of a paddle. Mad Irish told me to keep away he will burn you but then again the last time I was in Ireland they still had stop signs at the top of step ladders.

Good Luck with your teams this week.
May the Super-Coach Gods have the weekend off and give us a break.
Everybody have a great Easter weekend and travel safely.
Cheers.

THE SALTSHAKERS

2 goals 20 odd disposals lloyds JS looks good, normally not recommended but if u need to trade to make another trade this week do it. If Rohan keeps losing coin do it. If you need to make two trades next week for some war chest fuller? Gray? Get him this week…

DJ

Bloody Hell

What to do with luenburger? Who will be best to team up with sandi? Have 112k in the bank and have only used one trade this far

Rohan to Fasolo?

THE SALTSHAKERS

leuy > jacobs

Jezza

Hanley to Pav and Sam May swap to def, then McDonough to falsolo thoughts mick

Ocker

Jezza, Sounds like a good move

Cheers

Bob McBob

Should I go Tom Mitchell to Matt Wright or Pavlich?

The Filth

Pav

Bob McBob

Are there any other options at a similar price?

The Filth

Tough
An extra $60k gives you heap of options (if you have the coin..)
Parker, Breust, Zorko, Westoff, Roughy etc etc.

At the price – Wright, Gunston, Gray, Merrett, Pav… but Pav is probably the most likely premo or keeper in that list. Forwards are always tough to assess.

Bob McBob

If I go pav, I get 225k in the bank. However I'm wanting to upgrade my defence rookies to premiums in the next few weeks so this cash can be in handy. Or is this too much?

Ocker

Pavlich is best option and will probably suit the bye structure better.

Cheers.

The Filth

Good point Ocker..

Blueprime

Pavlich

Vinosh

Great Read!

Only thing with Pavlich is his age. Coming of a injury affected season do you reckon he will be still be able to run out games strongly?

Ocker

Running out games is not a problem for him. He badly wants to win a GF before he retires.

Cheers.

Michael

What to do with Tom Mitchell? If i do downgrade him to Fasolo it'll leave my forward line as
Breust, Dangerfield, Martin, Higgins, Fasolo and Taylor.
What to do community? It would leave me 200k for upgrades, but I hate looking at my forward line looking like that.

THE SALTSHAKERS

im sticking with mitchell as cant afford anyone i can guarantee will be top 6 fwds, hoping tippetts return frees him up from fwd line

The Filth

…and not onto the subs bench!

Cameron

Use that 200k to upgrade Higgins to a Premo come r7/8?

IWil

Entertained by Caddy making money then moving him onto a premium for little or no cash. What a joke, have really tempted the old deactivate team button if there was one. Somebody pull me from the dark hole that has also sucked Leunberger, Impey, Cotchin in with me. Please.

THE SALTSHAKERS

Pavs draw looked alot easier in 2012

Beady Eye

True, but possibly counterbalanced by Freo being a much stronger team in 2014.

Jack

I know everyone is getting in Matty Crouch for the likes of Tyson/Ellis/Aish…. But my gut is telling me to hold. I don't have Aish so all my Mid rooks still have Neg B/e's except Tyson. I reckon Tyson will continue punching out 90's so I'm just not sure if it's worth getting Matty Crouch in this week when these guys still have cash to make? There will be more Mid rookies on the horizon with the likes of Cripps/Gray so my gut is telling me to sit tight. Would love the communities thoughts.

Ocker

Very sound thoughts Jack, It depends on your team structure and available cash The byes being earlier this year you have to try and free up some cash for trading over the byes.
Not forgetting injuries etc.
I am not getting M Crouch this week because it does not suit my team structure and have more serious matters to resolve this week.

Cheers.

Kev

I'm in the same boat, SS. The cash would be nice but there will be other mid rookies that come along. Sit tight until the byes then trade like buggery

THE SALTSHAKERS

Crouch avg 32d in TAC, 8 more than kelly, near double aish – as sub collected 18d in a 1/2 and 23 in his first full game for 80sc not too shabby. Is playing as rover, crows draw getting easier dont miss the ride 😉

cyril

probably a good idea Jack.

It's hard to hold when you need cash to sort out all the forward line dramas though

Jack

Luckily I don't have the likes of Stichell/Rohan/Buddy/Caddy. I do however have Shiels and Mummy 🙁

Dogs

Caddy to fasolo, is it a good trade? Or a potential wasted trade as fasolo will still need to be upgraded down the track.

If I a trade x.ellis to m.crouch then I could upgrade caddy straight to a keeper like bruest ,pav,chappy, roughy ?

I really want to get rid of Rohan too, but have talked myself into waiting until Lloyd is on the bubble, he would be on my bench anyway so that can wait

Kev

I don't mind fasolo as a possible F6-7-8 come end of the year as long as bucks keeps him in that half back role. Hang on to your trades, with two rounds of carnage so far it looks like we'll be needing them!

@TheNoLanguage

Community. Dear oh dear. Thought I was clever enough to not trade last week. Needless to say my 1932 made me cry into my cornflakes on Monday morning. My team as it stands:

Swallow, Suckling, Hanley
Mitchell, McDonald, R.Shaw (Langford, Georgiou)
GAJ, Watson, Cotchin, Beams
McVeigh, Ellis, Dunstan, D.Thomas (Crouch, Michie)
Sandi, Lobbe (Derrickx, Thurlow)
Zorko, Danger, Wingard
Higgins, Caddy, Rohan (Taylor, JKH)

I realize I need 10 trades to fix up the holes here but my immediate thought was to get Caddy and Rohan out for Fasolo and Lloyd while banking coin to upgrade R.Shaw/Thomas next week. This of course is if Hanley is only missing two and praying Wingard is back this week.

ANY advice would be welcomed with open arms. PLEASE HELP!

SCaddict

Would go Rohan to Fasolo if you can afford it. Think you should hold back on Lloyd for one more week until he is a bubble boy, just in case he gets injured or dropped after this round, even though that seems pretty unlikely at this point.

It's probably better to swap JKH for Lloyd at any rate but you may as well earn a bit more cash from JKH for one more week before making this move and also get another look at Lloyd in case he proves to be a one round wonder.

If you were to use a second trade this week I'd seriously consider moving Hanley on for another premo such as Simpson, Thompson or even Enright.

@TheNoLanguage

Thanks addict. Yeah I'm concerned about Hanley I was thinking of a trade to Bartel to keep that DPP status but if he's only missing two it might be wise to cool my jets.

Daniel

Swallow, McVeigh, Mitchell, McDonald, Langdon, Langford (Georgiou, Tippet)

Ablett, Pendles, Selwood, Beams, Murphy, Polec, Dunstan, Thomas (Ellis, Mitchie)

Jacobs, Sandy (Currie, Ceglar)

Martin, Roughead, Danger, Higgins, Fasolo, Lloyd (Impey, McCarthy)

$170k

Any ideas?

The Mullet

Unlike most of the rest of us…………………..knock the top off a cold beer………..put your feet up and start thinking about how to manage the byes…….

Luke

Possibly trade Michie who is not playing to a guy on the bubble like m crouch. Great team though other than that.

Derek

looks good. nothing to do there except Nothing

THE SALTSHAKERS

problems at byes 4 out mid, 4 out fwd and 4 out def – ouch!! just get lloyd alot cheaper, less risk at that price

THE SALTSHAKERS

*rnd 8

THE SALTSHAKERS

oh mccarthy, jacobs and currie out rnd 8 – you got probs there buddy 15 out!! means some teams will score from best 18 of 20, you will score from whoever is playing from 15

James

What to do with hanley?

Kristofor

I'm holding him I think. Is ANYONE else doing the same..?
Seems a waste to trade out quality if he's only a short term injury?

Branks

I'm trading him to HIbberd. I think Hanley got injured last year with a hamstring, so it might be a reoccurring issue.

Cozza

I am thinking about holding him as well – word is 2-3 weeks so as long as McDonald can pull out some half decent scores I should be safe

Branks

I guess it all depends on you have as bench cover. If your lucky enough to have Mcdonald on the pine, then its worth holding. But if your like me and you don't have adequate bench cover, then its probably worth trading.

Mikey

I'm holding him, don't have awesome cover for him but will manage for 1-2 weeks.

Shinboner

Extended to 3-4 weeks on the AFL website.

Josh

thoughts on fasolo ?

Azmataz

Get him in!

John

thoughts on gray and lloyd next week?

Flacid Jaff

Lloyd looked great, he looks good enough to keep jake king out of the side, bring him in next week if he scores 70+ this week!
Gray is cheap as chips, but with wingard returning, as well as monfries and co soon, he'll get dropped soon so be wary!

judd0

I wish I scored that much this week mate. 1903, with 2 bloody donuts, not the cinnamon kind either.

I have Hanley too, there saying 2-3 weeks, I don't know whether to hold onto him or not.
The 2 trades you suggested seem to be logical.

Derek

If it is 3 weeks for Hanley, I wouldn't be surprised if it becomes 5 as they might decide to rest him the week before the bye and get him 100%

Mikey

I'm holding Hanley, he's sitting on my midfield bench as we speak but if his 1-2 expected games turns to 3-4 or more, I will trade him. same with Mumford.

Derek

if it is 3-4 they will rest him until after BRIS bye, that will be 5 weeks!

Dave2008

B: McVeigh Mitchell Handley D Swallow Suckling Laidler ( Langdon Clurey)
C Ablett J Kennedy Beams Murphy Thomas X Ellis Polec Dunstan (Taylor McDonald)
R Jacobs Sandilands (Thurlow Currie)
F Martin Dangerfield Buddy Zorko Higgins Rohan (Impey Kennedy –Harris)

Option 1 Hanley and Rohan out for Fasolo and Crouch (Switch McDonald to Def leaves him as D6 and Laidler as D5 and lose DPP def/mid. 370 k in the bank

Option 2 Hanley and Rohan out for Fasolo and a Def worth 488k

IT would be great to get your opinion Jock or any of the esteemed experts on this blog as far as which move is best for someone trying to win their league. Option 1 two players on the bubble who will make money if they keep playing and money for upgrades. Option 2 is the DPP for the bye rounds worth forgoing the cash generation of Option 1 and getting a season keeper in defence which might save a trade. Hmmm…back to the age old question how much is a trade worth.

HiltonKid

Best pick out of…..

Swallow , Bartel or Hodge

SCaddict

I would pick between Swallow or Bartel but like the former a little bit more with the Suns draw about to open up.

In fact I'm upgrading Webster to Swallow myself this week.

Derek

SUNS play melb and GWS next two weeks, that is good for Swallow but you can't make a decision on two weeks. Bartel is a GUN but still expensive. Hodge will benefit from Lake and Stratten coming back this week as he has been playing a very defence role in their absence, once they are back he will be more in the midfield.

I think Birchell offers better value than any of them

Mikey

yeh Swallow or Bartel, I'm thinking the same if I do end up trading Hanley if his 1-2 becomes 3-4+. will bring in Bartel as I have Swallow.

JX20

Bartel. Counting the weeks until I get him in.
Hodgy can take the foot of the pedal when they're smashing teams. Scores well in big games.

Mike

I have both Hanley and A Walker down back and the latter is KILLING me! Thinking he needs to go if PH will only miss a couple of games.

Dan

What is Jaensch's BE?

SCaddict

BE = 10.

Dan

okay, cheers

Steven

Swallow, Suckling, Mitchell
L.McDonald, Langdon, Enright (Georgiou, Webster)
Ablett, Pendlebury, D.Beams, M.Thomas
Polec, Dunstan, Tyson, X.Ellis (J.Kelly, Caddy)
Sandilands, Mumford (Currie, Thurlow)
Zorko, Parker, D.Martin
Dangerfield, Higgins, T.Mitchell (Rohan, JKH)

Have $66,700 in the war chest. Was thinking of trading:
– Rohan –> Fasolo
– Caddy –> M.Crouch or T.Mitchell –> Pavlich
Thoughts?
Any suggestions would be appreciated

Gilly

I am considering the Rohan to Fasolo trade this week. I also have Caddy but not the luxury of having him on the bench, I am holding him at this stage think I having bigger issues (see my team below)

Flacid Jaff

MUST!! go Caddy to Crouch!!
The toss up should be between the other two choices!
Could even go T.Mitchell -> Fasolo and use the cash in the next few weeks to target a fallen premo!

brandon2416

get rid of mummy out for 3-4 weeks (FIRST PRIORITY)

Bread n Butter

N Riewoldt or Pav people??

Azmataz

Reiwoldts BE is 120, Pav's BE is 22. Reiwoldt is at $585k, Pav is at $439k.

I would say it is better to get Pav at the moment, then pick up Reiwoldt for a bit cheaper when a cow is fatter and use the money saved on Pav towards Reiwoldt! Win win

Derek

Pav is so much cheaper and will let you get another premium faster. Roo has had some fairly easy games to start the year, his scores are inflated. PAV has more upside once fyfe is back and the Freo midfield starts working

Azmataz

Forward line is Danger, Titchell, Pav, Dusty, May, Taylor (JKH, Impey).

I am sick of copping a Taylor/JKH/Impey score every week so am thinking of doing the following:

Out Daisy, in Fasolo (via Taylor swing)
Out Titchell, in Reiwoldt

Sick of Daisy and Titchell getting sub 100 scores. Teach me to select players on potential…

What do you reckon community? Should I pull the trigger? I have Sandi and Sauce in my rucks so no issues there..

Derek

but then you are still left with Taylor/JKH/Impey. what have you gained?

Mikey

he's trying to bring in premo blokes that will give him better/consistent scores I am guessing.

Azmataz

Yeah but they will all be on the bench, still "making money" supposedly. I quite like Dan's suggestion below, only I'd probably drop Impey over Taylor, as Taylor still has a negative BE. I did trade out Crouch after Round 1 to Jamie Bennell, and am sort of against trading back in players I have already traded out…but I might have to make an exception here because that does sound like a good money making plan..

But I still want Reiwoldt…argh…and Titchell is bleeding money..

I am not jumping on Lloyd or Gray yet – I want to see another week first. I think everyone is jumping the gun a bit there bringing Lloyd in this week. Think what happened with Ambrose (who I also didn't jump on).

Dan

I'd go Taylor to Fasolo and go Daisy to Crouch, if you want to offload two in one week, then next week or later on bring in premos. If you're looking at Riewoldt I'd let him come down a bit in price first. Also keep an eye on Sam Lloyd (RIC) and Sam Gray (PTA) the following weeks if you need a downgrade option to bring in a premo.

Remy

What's the best way to get M. Crouch in my team?
Midfielders are: Ablett, Pendles, Beams, Dal Santo, R. Douglas, Polec, Dunstan, Tyson (Morabito, Honeychurch)
(Can swing L.Taylor to mid as well)
I don't want to cull my cash cows yet, please help community!

Derek

I can see your only way is Honeychurch to Crouch. I hear Morabito is very close to playing, where Honeychurch may have to wait some more weeks.

Derek

consider this a corrective trade, Higgo won't mind

Kristofor

Seems everyone is culling Hanley!
I'm thinking I should hold him if it's a 2 week injury..
Is ANYONE thinking the same? ha ha
I need assurance that keeping him is a good idea… ha ha
I'm thinking Webster -> Swallow and Caddy -> Lloyd this week…

Cozza

I'm with you – probably holding

Mikey

I'm holding him. if his 1-2 weeks turns into 3-4 or more I will trade though, I don't have awesome cover for him (rookies such as McDonald, Georgiou), he's currently on my midfield bench

Mikey

but I like the trades you've suggested (Webster to Swallow, Caddy to Lloyd) but be careful as they say "don't chase last week's points" i.e. Lloyd had a massive first game but may not back it up this week.

Gilly

I am holding Hanley hopefully only a 2 week injury

Beady Eye

Disclaimer: I also have Hanley and traded him out for Pavlich.

It very much depends on your team bye structure. If he fits with this, then you can probably afford to carry him… just don't bank on him coming straight back in. Brisbane are going nowhere this year, so they may play it safe and let him return through the NEAFL.

Also consider that he'll have that 35 rolling through his average for another fortnight after he does come back, so his price is going down unless he absolutely smashes it on his return.

Your proposed trades are very solid – Webster's BE is only 36, so you could probably hold him another week and do a Hanley>Swallow swap instead (if you decided to trade him out).

Daniel

Im thinking of holding hanley and going caddy to fasolo and webster to kade simpson, that way get a prem early and have cover for hanley.

Harrison

Caddy –> Fasolo
TMitchell –> Pav
Leaving 118,800
Fwd: Danger, Martin, Pav, Fasolo, Llyod, Impey/JKH, Ambrose (out for 2/3)
Alrady had Llyod in round 4 got him in b4 the game, same with ambrose the week b4 that
Very happy with my trades so far:
OUT Caddy IN Fasolo
OUT Mitchell IN Pavlich
ROUND 4
OUT Aish IN Ellis
OUT McDonough IN Lloyd
ROUND 2
OUT Taylor IN Tyson
OUT Rohan IN Ambrose

Any thought on my team starting this week:
Swallow, Simpson, McVeigh, Mitchell McDonald, Enright
Ablett, Pendlebury, Beams, Cotchin, Polec, Dunstan, Tyson, Ellis/Crouch
Sandilands, Minson
Martin, Dangerfield, Pav, Fasolo Impey/JKH, Lloyd

JX20

Probably the best back 6 I've seen this year.

Kristofor

Hi all, a question for you. Would love to hear what you think:
Which is the better option for two trades in (Which combo is better):

A – Jaensch and Fasolo
B – Swallow and Lloyd

Tomawhawk

Option A – Lloyd an unknown quality. Fasolo been in the system longer, more durable etc.

Gilly

I am thinking A as well for the same reasons.

JX20

Agree with Tomahawk. Clubs will look a bit closer at Lloyd now & I want to see a bigger sample.

Kristofor

Thanks guys. Fair point. Also, can get Lloyd in next week if he performs well again.
On the other hand, if I go Fasolo, I miss out on Swallow.

Thoughts on Jaensch vs Swallow for reliability/scoring over the year?

JX20

Swallow for mine. He's a number 1 pick who finally has his body right and also 4 pre-seasons. Playing both an attacking/defensive role without tagging anyone. Also can't see him getting a tag with Ablett, Prestia, O'Meara etc. 135, 127, 102, 107 despite 2 hidings.

Joey

Do you think it is worthwhile trading Fasolo in for Rohan (as a bench option – other bench is Ambrose)?

I feel as though Fasolo will be solid coverage especially during the byes. However it leaves me with no decent option to get Lloyd in next week

Derek

Is Ambrose only 2 weeks away?

Mikey

according to afl.com.au he's 1-2 weeks.

Derek

I think Ambrose is as good if not better option than LLoyd. Ambrose on the bubble when he comes back.

Ash

Is there any point in getting fasolo for impey with Lewis taylor on the bench fasolo would only be f7, is it worth the trade

Dan

I think so, depends what the rest of your FWD line is and how good your bye coverage is. Fasolo will make cash for you nonetheless, Impey, not so much.

Benno

Mick, seems I've escaped the carnage of last week and don't have caddy issues! Thoughts on Dan Jackson as a possible TAT option? $499K, low break-even coming off a 2 round average of 115, strong mid JS with lids sidelined for another few weeks, or do i bite the bullet and pull in the little master Ablett at $715K, appreciate your thoughts!

nate

I've been looking at jackson too, POD, but can he keep this up?

mick

ablett 4 sure

Bob McBob

Looks like he is playing the role that Shane Tuck left behind

Benno

Still not sure whether i can justify the $215K to get Ablett over Jackson, Abletts price is so volatile the minute he throws in a score below 100 he will plummet for 3 weeks. Thinking that would be a better time to nab him, although the points he racks up between now and then will hurt… Pulling my hair out over this one fellas!

Bob McBob

Get Ablett in now. He has a pretty good draw right now, and may increase further

Blueprime

You can't win without Ablett.

HiltonKid

Have Got Hanley , Shiels and Rohan

So what I have done is brang in David Swallow for Shiels in the midfield

Then I swapped Swallow to Defense and Hanley to my Midfield bench

I put Matt Crouch on field who was on my bench

Then I can bring Hanley back when he has recovered from his injury

Thoughts?

Any other ideas let me know

Cheers

Gilly

Hi HiltonKid I have the same problem (team listed below) and was looking at that trade as well. I think it makes sense mate, hopefully just a 2 week injury and in my case would give me a def-mid link coming into the byes.

HiltonKid

Hey saw your team have a similar problem with me still not 100% sure if that trade makes any difference I traded out Shiels because of injury very disappointed because not many people had him and was scoring big time and got rohan out for Sam Llyod. Was thinking for next week to upgrade Hanley who is on mid bench to Rockliff or Joel Selwood. Feel I do not need another premium because in defence on field I have Swallow,Mitchell,McVeigh,Enright, Jaensch and McDonald.

Whats your thoughts Cheers…

Gilly

Without knowing the rest of your team and how many $$$ you have the Swallow trade looks good and gives you a very solid back line.

Unless you need the cash from the Rohan to Lloyd trade I would be giving Lloyd another week although he is only playing Brisbane this week. Is Rohan to Fasolo an option?

Only issue I have with trading in Jelwood next week is that he has the bye 2 games later, Rockliff has round 10 bye.

Any thoughts on my issues?

JX20

It was reported that Sam Mitchell had a scan on Monday. Is he in any doubt for Monday? Not overly keen on relying on Webster as emerg again.

Gilly

Like a lot of us I got a major kick in the rear end last weekend and to cap it off dropped from a career high 1500 to 14 000 overall.

My team
McVeigh, Mitchell, Hanley, McDonald, Langdon, Langford, Webster, Georgiou

Ablett, Pendlebury, Beams, Liberatore, Polec, Dunstan, Ellis, Tyson, Shiels, Michie

Sandilands, Mumford, Currie, Derickx

Parker, Roughead, Dangerfield, Dahlhouse, Caddy, L.Taylor, Rohan, JKH

At the moment I feel a bit like the little boy trying to plug holes in the dam wall with my fingers but here are some options would appreciate thoughts or other suggestions.

I have 120k

1. Shiels and Rohan out Swallow and Lloyd in – lets me get hanley/Mitchell to mid bench
2.Same 2 out J.Macrae and A.Fasolo in
3. Ollie Wines and Lloyd in
4.Macrae and Lloyd in.
5. Trade Shiels to P.Cripps then turn Rohan into Pav/Zorko

Thanks

matt

get your forward line right

matty d

roughhead or pavlich? neeed one, have the money for either but just cant split them

MightyDonsFC

Pavlova

Brett

Hey Mick,

Top write up once again!

Going two changes (used 4 already):
JJK >> Pav
Caddy >> Fasolo

Keeping the faith with Mummy and Titch to stay fit.

Waiting another week on Daisy. Thinking being the priority is to up the performance of my forward line when you add Danger to this mix!

Keen to hear your thoughts?