The Machine beats the Sportsbet Line.
Round 3 was a good week for The Machine. It was more accurate in its line prediction in 5 out of the 9 games as shown below;
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Round 3 output statistics
| Round 3 | Winner | Margin | Machine Error | Sportsbet Error |
| Hawks V Freo | Hawks | 58 | 66 | 64.5 |
| Dogs V Tigers | Dogs | 2 | 36 | 17.5 |
| Crows V Swans | Swans | 63 | 56 | 56.5 |
| GCS V Lions | GCS | 53 | 40 | 45.5 |
| WCE V Saints | WCE | 25 | 9 | 38.5 |
| C.Wood V Cats | Cats | 11 | 1 | 3.5 |
| GWS V Demons | GWS | 32 | 11 | 9.5 |
| North V Port | North | 7 | 13 | 11.5 |
| Ess. V Carlton | Ess. | 81 | 54 | 66.5 |
| Average Game Error | 31.78 | 34.83 |
And the Round 3 Summary Table;
| The Machine GAME ERORR | Sporstbet GAME ERROR | No. Bets | Wins | Profit/Loss | Bank (Starting with $100) |
| 40.95 | 38.55 | 5 | 3 | $3.80 | $103.80 |
| 31.4 | 24.1 | 6 | 2 | -$10.80 | $93.00 |
| 31.78 | 34.83 | 3 | 2 | $4.20 | $97.20 |
| 34.71 | 32.49 | 14 | 7 |
Round 4 Bets;
| Round 4 | Formulated Winner | Formulated Margin | Sportsbet Line | Diff. | BET | |
| 1 | Tigers V Coll. | Collingwood | 8 | 8.5 | 0.5 | No bet |
| 2 | Blues V Dees | Blues | 40 | 35.5 | 4.5 | No bet |
| 3 | Port V Lions | Port | 24 | 36.5 | 12.5 | $5 LIONS at line |
| 4 | GWS V Dogs | Dogs | 24 | 6.5 | 17.5 | $5 DOGS at line |
| 5 | Cats V WCE | Cats | 24 | 28.5 | 4.5 | No bet |
| 6 | GCS V Hawks | Hawks | 8 | 24.5 | 16.5 | $5 GCS at line |
| 7 | Syd. V North | North | 4 | -17.5 (Syd fav.) | 21.5 | $5 NORTH at line |
| 8 | St.K V Crows | Crows | 24 | 4.5 | 19.5 | $5 CROWS at line |
| 9 | Freo V Ess. | Freo | 9 | -1.5 (Ess. fav.) | 10.5 | No bet |
Mother and I always like to have a line bet riding on the Friday night game so it was disappointing to see The Machine suggesting no betting on this game. I decided to analyse this game a little further using some simple regression analysis in an attempt to find a bet;
So it does appear that this Friday night game is not a good line betting option.
It is interesting to note that the average Total Game Score over the past five encounters has been 184.2 points. Sportsbet is offering $1.88 for a Total Game Score of above 169.5 – Mother and I are on!
Enjoy this weekend of football.
Regards,
Peter Higginbotham
10 Comments
GeneralSoreness · 11/04/2014 at 11:35
Higgo should that be $4.20 profit? 3 Bets at $5 = $15 outlay, 2 wins at the line = $10 X $1.92 = $19.2 – outlay $15 = $4.2.
@PeterHiggo · 11/04/2014 at 12:07
Correct, post has been updated.
Thanks.
guesto · 11/04/2014 at 11:47
Port and Crows look handy.
stuart · 11/04/2014 at 11:57
Higgo your port bet looks to be backwards
Your formula predicts port by 24 but sportsbet odds are 36.5 so that a 12.5 point swing in favour of LIONS LINE
Therefore your bet should be $5 lions line
Was keen on your fri night tota lpoints over but its a miserable day out there… Any thoughts on impact with the weather?
@PeterHiggo · 11/04/2014 at 12:06
Correct – post fixed …. backing LIONS at line against PORT.
Weather is not factored into The Machine formula. Recall Cloke kicking 7 on Rance last year and Swan running riot. With Rance out, does Astbury get the job? Could be a big night for Cloke resulting in a decent total game points.
GeneralSoreness · 11/04/2014 at 12:13
This week the General Principle lost $1.90 to have a current bank $99.56.
The Soreness Deviation continues to perform 4 bets for 4 wins in last two weeks. This week the Deviation's selections almost mirror that of the Machine. With the Deviation taking Sydney over North at the line.
And the Hawks to cover the line, although i think that's what the Machine meant to say.
guesto · 11/04/2014 at 13:58
Crouching should catching the movie 'Wendy Wu'. Lots of awesome fly kicks.
Ryan · 11/04/2014 at 15:08
Question Higgo, have you noticed in previous years whether sportsbets line (and the machines) accuracy increases as the year progresses with greater exposed form?
Matt · 11/04/2014 at 19:18
Should i trade mcveigh for jaensch
and Swan for selwood
not sure if too early to make the call
cam · 17/04/2014 at 16:00
@Matt No that's absolutely ridiculous. back mcveigh all the way, bad luck with swan but you have to hold him
Comments are closed.