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Higgo’s Supercoach Line Betting Machine – Round 4

Published by Higgo on

higgoThe Machine beats the Sportsbet Line.

Round 3 was a good week for The Machine. It was more accurate in its line prediction in 5 out of the 9 games as shown below;

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Round 3 output statistics

Round 3   Winner   Margin Machine     Error Sportsbet   Error
Hawks V Freo Hawks 58 66 64.5
Dogs V Tigers Dogs 2 36 17.5
Crows V Swans Swans 63 56 56.5
GCS V Lions GCS 53 40 45.5
WCE V Saints WCE 25 9 38.5
C.Wood V Cats Cats 11 1 3.5
GWS V Demons GWS 32 11 9.5
North V Port North 7 13 11.5
Ess. V Carlton Ess. 81 54 66.5
Average   Game Error 31.78 34.83

And the Round 3 Summary Table;

The Machine GAME ERORR Sporstbet GAME ERROR No. Bets Wins Profit/Loss Bank (Starting with $100)
40.95 38.55 5 3 $3.80 $103.80
31.4 24.1 6 2 -$10.80 $93.00
31.78 34.83 3 2 $4.20 $97.20
34.71 32.49  14  7

 

Round 4 Bets;

Round 4 Formulated Winner Formulated Margin Sportsbet  Line Diff.  BET
1 Tigers V Coll. Collingwood 8 8.5 0.5 No bet
2 Blues V Dees Blues 40 35.5 4.5 No bet
3 Port V Lions Port 24 36.5 12.5 $5 LIONS at line
4 GWS V Dogs Dogs 24 6.5 17.5 $5 DOGS at line
5 Cats V WCE Cats 24 28.5 4.5 No bet
6 GCS V Hawks Hawks 8 24.5 16.5 $5 GCS at line
7 Syd. V North North 4 -17.5 (Syd fav.) 21.5 $5 NORTH at line
8 St.K V Crows Crows 24 4.5 19.5 $5 CROWS at line
9 Freo V Ess. Freo 9 -1.5 (Ess. fav.) 10.5 No bet

Mother and I always like to have a line bet riding on the Friday night game so it was disappointing to see The Machine suggesting no betting on this game. I decided to analyse this game a little further using some simple regression analysis in an attempt to find a bet;Rich V Collingwood graphSo it does appear that this Friday night game is not a good line betting option.

It is interesting to note that the average Total Game Score over the past five encounters has been 184.2 points. Sportsbet is offering $1.88 for a Total Game Score of above 169.5  – Mother and I are on!

Enjoy this weekend of football.

Regards,

Peter Higginbotham

 


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GeneralSoreness

Higgo should that be $4.20 profit? 3 Bets at $5 = $15 outlay, 2 wins at the line = $10 X $1.92 = $19.2 – outlay $15 = $4.2.

@PeterHiggo

Correct, post has been updated.
Thanks.

guesto

Port and Crows look handy.

stuart

Higgo your port bet looks to be backwards
Your formula predicts port by 24 but sportsbet odds are 36.5 so that a 12.5 point swing in favour of LIONS LINE
Therefore your bet should be $5 lions line

Was keen on your fri night tota lpoints over but its a miserable day out there… Any thoughts on impact with the weather?

@PeterHiggo

Correct – post fixed …. backing LIONS at line against PORT.

Weather is not factored into The Machine formula. Recall Cloke kicking 7 on Rance last year and Swan running riot. With Rance out, does Astbury get the job? Could be a big night for Cloke resulting in a decent total game points.

GeneralSoreness

This week the General Principle lost $1.90 to have a current bank $99.56.

The Soreness Deviation continues to perform 4 bets for 4 wins in last two weeks. This week the Deviation's selections almost mirror that of the Machine. With the Deviation taking Sydney over North at the line.

And the Hawks to cover the line, although i think that's what the Machine meant to say.

guesto

Crouching should catching the movie 'Wendy Wu'. Lots of awesome fly kicks.

Ryan

Question Higgo, have you noticed in previous years whether sportsbets line (and the machines) accuracy increases as the year progresses with greater exposed form?

Matt

Should i trade mcveigh for jaensch
and Swan for selwood
not sure if too early to make the call

cam

@Matt No that's absolutely ridiculous. back mcveigh all the way, bad luck with swan but you have to hold him