Flesh for Fantasy – Round 4
The prices have gone up and the SuperCoach landscape, to some extent, has changed. No longer are the rookies really cheap and are guys like Sandilands and Swallow low priced.
We also, for now, have a new king of the jungle. Shane Mumford is the form man of SuperCoach, with scores of 132, 158 and 164 to start the year and looking bloody good.
This week is all about settling down into a rhythm. The prices have changed and we’ve made our corrective trades. Now its time to simply back the players we’ve got and only trade for necessity. It is important, however, to keep an eye on the market and always continue to look for value.
Let’s look for this week’s value
GET HIM IN
Joel Selwood (GEE) MID – $662,000 SC
- Next 5 Games: WCE (H), HAW (H), PORT (A), RICH (H), FRE (A)
- Recent Scores: 157, 140, 138
- Breakeven: 90
Joel Selwood gets a run in this week’s Flesh for Fantasy purely on form. Look at the man’s scores: 157, 140 and 138 if you don’t mind!! He is in such good form right now. If he’s not tackling, he is kicking goals. If he is not kicking goals, he is getting 30+ possessions. A tough run coming up, but really, that’s irrelevant.
With a BE of 90 and his current form, he won’t be dropping in price anytime soon. However, mentioning Selwood in this week’s Flesh will hopefully ensure you keep an eye on his scores over the coming weeks. If he has a below par game, it could see his price decrease and affordable. He is a must have come finals time and the sooner you can get him in, the better.
Luke Bruest (HAW) FWD – $480,800 SC
- Next 5 Games: GCS (A), GEE (A), RICH (A), STK (H), SYD (A)
- Recent Scores: 140, 87 121
- Breakeven: 59
A surprise packet to some extent, Luke Breust is having a sensational season to date. He is finding plenty of the footy (22 touches v Bris, 14 touches v Ess and 24 touches v Fre), while also impacting the scoreboard (10 goals from 3 games). These type of stats will have Champion Data froffing at the mouth and as we’ve seen, it has translated into serious SuperCoach points.
While the next run of games is not entirely easy, the games to start the season haven’t been either. His added run in the midfield this season has translated to great scores and given players like him are difficult to tag; there is every chance the form can continue. If you’ve got a failing forward premium or have Chad Wingard, it may be worth taking the punt and going to Luke Breust.
Cale Hooker (ESS) DEF – $445,000 SC
- Next 5 Games: FRE (A), STK (H), COLL (A), WBD (H), BRIS (A)
- Recent Scores: 121, 111, 80
- Breakeven: 57
You could make a case for Cale Hooker as the All Australian this season given his form down back. So good has his form been that it warrants fantasy consideration. While he was a bit down against Carlton, his first two games have been sensational. Against NM he was magnificent, collecting 26 touches to go with 16 marks. While against Hawthorn, he amassed 27 disposals and 10 marks. He has been a central figure in defence and definitely worth looking at.
When considering Hooker as a potential trade in option, you must consider two things. One, he is a key back. He won’t be scoring 100+ every week and they will read much like a roller-coaster. That said, Hooker’s stat line is much more impressive than a player like Steven May’s. He is getting a lot more of the footy and involved in a lot more of the play. The return of Hurley down back has freed up Hooker and made life a lot easier for him. Second, his price. It is awkward and unless you trade up/down, it will be difficult to get him in so early on in the season. That said, if you are in need of a POD key back, Hooker could be your man. Keep an eye on him.
GET HIM OUT
Gary Rohan (SYD) FWD – $176,000 SC
- Next 5 Games: NM (H), FRE (H), MELB (A), BRIS (A), HAW (H)
- Recent Scores: 47, 37, 21
- Breakeven: 40
This bloke is SuperCoach frustration. He either starts as sub or just doesn’t get anywhere near it. The fact he lost money after the first week of price changes suggests it is time to cut you losses and get rid of him.
Who to? At this stage Lewis Taylor looks only real suitable option. You could go up to Alex Fasolo, or get Ambrose in and wait ‘till he returns. Whichever way you go, you must consider getting rid of Gary Rohan.
Rhys Shaw (SYD) DEF – $295,800 SC
- Next 5 Games: NM (H), FRE (H), MELB (A), BRIS (A), HAW (H)
- Recent Scores: 91, 18, 62
- Breakeven: 85
Disappointment, and a case of I told you so. After 91 against GWS, it has been tough going for Rhys. 18…yes, 18, against Collingwood despite having 14 touches and a 62 against Adelaide in a big win is a major concern. His pre-season form is yet to come to the party and with a high BE it is time to dump before you lose money. Those low scores will remain in his rolling lockout for a couple of weeks. The boat may have been missed in way of Matthew Jaensch, but it is not too late to jump on Jimmy Webster – who has solid job security and a low BE. You could also look to really build the kitty up and get KadeKolodjashni in. Either way, Shaw must go. Btw, I told you so.
Brett Deledio (ESS) MID – $558,800 SC
- Next 5 Games: COLL (H), BRIS (A), HAW (H), GEE (A), MELB (H)
- Recent Scores: 136, 98
- Breakeven: 83
Frustrating for coaches who own Brett Deledio. After a great start to the year, he has now missed two games with that Achilles. Richmond has said he has had the issue for a number of years and is managed through it. That being said, trading Deledio really depends on your situation. If you’re going for league win and have cover on bench, I would hold Deledio has he is likely to return next week. If you were going for the overall, I’d maybe hold for one more week unless you absolutely have to get rid of him. If he doesn’t play against Brisbane, then I’d look to move him on. Watch closely, because if this is a lingering injury, it could end up being a pain in the, well, Achilles.
Here the key break-even scores to keep in mind heading into round 4:
- Luke Dunstan (STK) -78 BE
- Xavier Ellis (WCE) -63 BE
- Luke McDonald (NM) -46 BE
- Jared Polec (PORT) -31 BE
- Shane Mumford (GWS) -8 BE
- Shaun Higgins (WBD) 13 BE
- Dale Thomas (CARL) 24 BE
- Aaron Sandilands (FRE) -36 BE
- Jimmy Webster (STK) 7 BE
- Matt Suckling (HAW) 13 BE
- David Swallow (GCS) 36 BE
- Dayne Zorko (BRIS) 57 BE
- Gary Ablett (GCS) 90 BE
- Scott Pendlebury (COLL) 87 BE
- Ryan Griffin (WBD) 237 BE
- Dane Swan (COLL) 179 BE
- Patrick Dangerfield (ADEL) 146 BE
- Leigh Montagna (STK) 142 BE
- Todd Goldstein (NM) 142 BE
- Jimmy Bartel (GEE) 128 BE
- Heath Shaw (GWS) 113 BE
- Jobe Watson (ESS) 123 BE
Unfortunately, I’ve had to close the Pub for this week. However, tweet me at @Mr_Crimmins and not only will I answer the questions already asked, but I extend opening hours and take questions from everyone.
Good luck this weekend community