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Tight Arse Tuesday, Round 4

Published by Jock on

mick-the-madHello again community and welcome to our round 4 TAT (Tight Arse Tuesday). I think most teams had a better round 3 than the previous week and hopefully those of you going for league wins, got off to a good start.

Round 4 is an awkward round to be trading in. Ideally we would all like to have finished our corrective trades before the price rises, but many of us are probably still looking at big holes in some positions across our teams.  For those of you with cash in the bank after a couple of corrective downgrades last week, you should be able to pick out a premium upgrade to fill a hole this week. However, for those of you with little or no cash in the bank, the prospect of a corrective trade this week can be difficult. None of our rookies are anywhere near ripe enough to be plucked just yet, making an upgrade, downgrade scenario neon impossible. That will leave many coaches contemplating a sideways trade this week, and this is where we get into dangerous territory.

Most of us know we shouldn’t perform a sideways trade, yet every year we somehow get sucked into doing one or two. Go on, don’t lie, we all know who we are! And every year within a matter of rounds we end up regretting them and look back on themas wasted trades. So far this year I have had friends perform the following trades:

  • Hanley to Bartell after round 1 (down 78pts)
  • Libbratore to Treloar after round 1 (down 15pts)
  • Mitchell to Swallow after round 2 (down 12pts)
  • Franklin to Zorko after round 2 (down 84pts)

I know it’s only very early and you can’t make judgement on the success of a trade after a couple of rounds, but I can’t see any of those trades doing better than breaking even over the course of the season. To me they are all wasted trades, which will most likely come back and really hurt you when you need that extra trade come finals.

What we now really need to be asking ourselves is:

Are those big holes in our teams, really that big? Thus do they warrant us using a trade now, and the bigger question is do they warrant us using a sideways trade?  Can we wait it out for two more weeks after some more rookie cash generation? They are questions you will need to answer for yourself. Many have already bypassed these questions and gone straight for the trade button, where there are two names that seem to have caught the eye of many a prospective buyer.

Matthew Jaensch

3 Round Average 109.67

Breakeven -19

Current Price $364,600

Priced to Average 70

Matthew has got off to a great start to the season and is currently the equal second highest ranking defender. Currently owned by just 6% of all coaches, Matthew is definitely a POD pick, well at least before this week anyway. He has been in the system now for 4 years and he hasn’t exactly shown anything that would suggest that he is Supercoach relevant in that period of time. His largest Supercoach average of 74.7came in his second season and he has failed to kick on from there. It is also worth pointing out he is yet to play a full season, with 13 games being his largest total, again coming in his second year.

Image 1

Well clearly something has changed to see Jaensch go for very ordinary Supercoach scores to his current run of three Supercoach tonnes. To put it in prospective, he only managed one supercoach tonne in his four years at AFL level before this year.

The answer to that is clearly a change in role, and maybe more importantly some absentees that are currently on the Crows injury list. Namely Ricky Henderson and Nathan van Berlo. Henderson played the rebounding defender role at the Crows for the most part of last season and managed to average 105pts per game from round 14 to 20 before a knee injury ended his year. Henderson was tipped to continue that role this year but after suffering a broken fibula after being tackled during a team session during the preseason, Ricky hasn’t played this year, and isn’t due back for another 4-5months. That has to be a good thing for Jaensch as he is pretty much guaranteed the rebounding role for the rest of the year. To see what that actually means for Jaensch’s numbers, lets that a look at his stats so far this year.

Image 2

As you can see he has green and red in pretty much all the desirable rows you would want. The massive two stats that have caught my eye from the above table are the 25 disposals he has a game and the whopping 93% disposal efficiency. When you get the ball that many times and you use it that well, it’s not hard to see why he is scoring so well.

Stats don’t lie but they also have many hidden truths. The fact that he has such a high disposal efficiency, over 75% of his possessions have been uncontested, he’s been averaging 8.3 marks a game and 2.7 bounces a game tells me that he has been left unchecked by the opposition so far this year.

That is all well and good so far but if me and you are taking note of him now, what do you think coaches who get paid for a living are doing right now? This seems to happen every year where a player has a change of role across the half back and the opposition are unaware over the first few rounds, and we see them rack up the possessions. Of course this doesn’t last long and the more they influence games the more attention they get. Luckily for Jaensch owners to date Adelaide haven’t won any of their games and thus Jaensch may go a little longer into the season before he sees some attention.

If you think Jaensch will keep up his current stats I think you would be very naive. It is most likely he will end up averaging something close to the person whose role he has replaced, Ricky Henderson.

Image 3

I’d expect his disposals to come down closer to the 20 mark and disposal efficiency to come down to the 75% mark over the rest of the year. We all know this will lead to a decrease in average supercoach score too.

The Mad Irishman’s Verdict

2014 Predicted Status: Strong Midpricer

Predicted Average from here on out:  86-90pts

Final Word:

There is still value in Jaensch at his current price but the big question you should be asking yourself is he going to be a keeper for the year and thus worth the trade now. I can’t see him finishing in the top 10 defenders for the year and that is why I won’t be considering him this week. However if you still have some horror selections in your backline Jaensch just might be the man to fill a hole, just don’t expect premium output every week.

Jackson Merrett

3 Round Average 103

Breakeven -22

Current Price $332,400

Priced to Average 64

Jackson Merrett is another player who has got off to a great start to the season and is currently the seventh highest ranking forward. Currently owned by just 4% of all coaches, Jackson is also a POD pick. He has been in the system now for 2 years and going into his third at age 21 he is definitely in that breakout zone.

Image 4

As Jackson has really only played one season prior to this year it is very hard to read into any of his past AFL stats. I have given you his stats below to show you where is current supercoach scores are coming from.

Image 5

Averaging 24 possessions, running at 77.7%, 5.3 tackles and 2.3 clearances a game all adds up to healthy supercoach scoring. That’s all well and good knowing what he did over the first 3 rounds, but the hard part now is predicting what he can do for the rest of the year and thus is it worth trading him in now?

It’s hard to know where anyone at Essendon are playing these days with players seamlessly rotating positions on a week to week and quarter to quarter basis. Merrett was named in the forward pocket against the blues but played more of a half forward/midfielder, roaming across the ground picking up disposals at ease against the inept weak minded Blues. (Gosh how bad where they?). This is the beauty of the Bombers right now, they seem to have an extra number at every contest, and an extra man every time they spread. It’s almost like they are playing with extra numbers on field. If they didn’t have such clean track record I might think they were cheating ….. oh wait …. Hey did anyone actually count how many players they used on Sunday!

All joking aside you might have remembered me discussing Melbourne last week and how with their high disposal game, a lot of their players are very relevant Supercaoch picks. Well if that is the case for Melbourne then we really should be taking note of Essendon because so far this year they have been Supercoach Kings. (Just wish Paddy Ryder got the memo)

  • Round 3: Essendon 1945pts vs Carlton 1355pts
  • Round 2: Essendon 1882pts vs Hawthorn 1418pts
  • Round 1: Essendon 1980pts vs North 1320pts

Essendon have managed to average 1935 Supercaoch points a week so far this year, which is a staggering number. Under Mark Thomson the bombers have increased their disposal numbers from the already pretty healthy number of 375 in 2013 to a massive 435 in 2014. When you consider most teams will put work into limiting Watson’s, Goddard’s, Heppell’s or Stanton’s numbers then many of the next rung of players are going to benefit from such a high disposal game plan.  Jackson Merrett just happens to be one of those players.

Here’s the hard part, how do I tie all this together and predict what Merrett will average for the rest of the year. On past experience Essendon have been renowned for their second half of the year fade outs. (must be a come down from some sort of high.. who knows what that might be?) However I don’t actually think that will happen this year under Bomber Thomson. However my experience of young break out players does suggest that Merrett will at some point during the season go through a form dip that will ultimately lead to a drop off in average.

The Mad Irishman’s Verdict

2014 Predicted Status: Strong Midpricer

Predicted Average from here on out:  88-92pts

Final Word:

I know many will be tempted to go Caddy to Merrett this week but you really got to ask yourself in the long term is this trade worth it. I just can’t see Merrett becoming a keeper and will most likely need to be traded on again later in the year. Don’t get me wrong, Merrett still has value at his current price but as a fellow Caddy owner I think it’s best to wait a couple more weeks and turn Caddy into a forward keeper.

Don’t Trade – (Pick of the Week)

Each week I have been providing you with a “Pick of the Week Selection”. However as I said in my intro, round 4 is an awkward round to be trading in and most trades performed in this round are sideways in nature.

I personally haven’t got off to the start I wanted and am currently ranked around the 15,000 mark. I have all of Thomas, Caddy and Higgins in my team but panic trading at this stage in the hope to better my score by a maximum of 40-50pts a round over the next couple of weeks is not the way to go. Once those rookies make a few more $dollars$ I can upgrade to the premiums I want and not just some stop gap.

Final Word:

Back your men in. I’m betting those holes aren’t as big as you think they are!

Stay tuned ….

Mick the Mad Irishman

 

The Big News Earlier This Week:

POLL: Is it too late to get Mummy’s help?


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SamuelScoach

yes agreed no trades this week

Papaya

Do you think it is worth going Leuenberger to Mumford this week?
I can afford to do it with one trade and I am really worried that Trent West will continue to steal Leuey's points.
Thanks

Mumford4PM

Yes

wes

not biased at all 🙂

pieman

I think Mummy has bolted. I too have Leuy but im riding it out. He's playing and trades are precious. HOLD

WombatsFC

No. Downgrade him to Haymac and pocket 128k PLUS pick up another 80k before the bye. HayMac is showing no signs of the injury that saw him play only 8 games from 2011 to 2013k and is getting better with each game, 80,88,97. The bloke is a premium ruck (currently 8th highest scoring ruck) at a bargain basement price and with the extra 128k you might be able to turn an underperforming rookie into a Jaensch or Merrett.

WombatsFC

OR, if you don't have both Gaz and Pendle you can use the profit from Leuy to Haymac to get one of them Gaz is predicted to rise another 30k this week and 36k the week after, Pendle will only be 20k more if you pass him up this week.

Matt

Is it worth trading priddis to prestia, i see prestia averaging 115 this year and priddis only 100-105

JD1

No!

@Da_Mad_Irishman

Sorry Matt but I'd strongly say no to this one – trade from the bottom up. If you really like the look of Prestia get him in, in a few weeks when you can turn two rookies into a premo and another rookie

Matt

Yeah cheers mate, gonna hold my trades fit now

Dogs

I currently have Rohan at F6 and McDonough , JKH on the bench. Out of these 3 spuds I was thinking of turning McDonough into merret , and leave Rohan , JKH on the bench…..I mean at least they're playing, however poorly. And in turn hope JKH can get a game without a vest, and when ambrose is fit again I plan the trade out Rohan for ambrose for the $130k swing around, $70k from the downgrade + $60k from ambrose first price rise . These are my only planned trades until my cows are fat enough/bye rounds, touch wood no more injuries/ suspensions.

dogs

i may be forced to pull the trigger earlier on JKH, as i have wingard and possibly danger out this week, so JKH would be an on field player for me….which unless he doesnt get the vest i cant have, thinking to stick with mcdonut to merret, and if JKH named sub then him into l.taylor.

so much for the plan of getting rohan off the ground, looks like he gets to spud it up again for me regardless , until wingard and danger come back from injury

Sleepy

Hi Mad Mick before reading your article I was considering trading Enright down to Jaensch if he not up this week, make a few bucks on Jaensch and then get Enright back again down the track when his price goes down and Jaensch has maxed out, I have been playing supercoach 4 years and had Enright every year and he not let me down yet. Love his consistency. What your thoughts cheers

Branks

I am also thinking of going Enright to Jaensch as I think Enright's injury may linger.

Sleepy

Yep Branks I was gonna do it last week but didn't coz Enright in til the last minute and I missed it. Lotsa dollars lost. [email protected] happens ay!

@Da_Mad_Irishman

Look injuries are the one exception to a sideways trade. If your player is going to miss more than two weeks I would trade. Enright might be back in a week or then again he might not. I have definitely heard worse trades but I personally would hold. Remember its two trades, one to replace him now and one to get him back in. By holding you'll have two extra trades with the same team come finals

Branks

Thanks Mick. Those going for league win should definitely hold if they have Enright.

Sleepy

yep thanks Mick and Branks think I will hold 4 now at least

Dale

same sleepy, i am thinking of a possible enright to jaensch, but very wary of the wasted trade for a little short term gain. depends on enrights injury I think, injuries change everything on sideways type trades, especially money making ones like this.

Sleepy

Yep will hold Enright til full extent of injury known. Thanks chaps

HBags

Anyone's thoughts on going Suckling to Swallow? I can see Suckling's output sitting around 90, whereas the sky is the limit for Swallow this year.. and only $476K.

canman1306

If you can see Sucklings output at 90 May aswell keep him because he will be a top 15 DEF If he can average 90

@Da_Mad_Irishman

Is suckling your worst defender ?? Probably not – wait a few weeks and upgrade your rookie defenders. Always start from the bottom up when you trade

@daveywarhol

If you look at Sucklings history, you'll see he is the Travis Cloke of defence. 120 one week, 30 the next. I say hang on to him while his breakeven is low and then bang.

James

Hi Mick,

Is it worth downgrading Jay Kennedy Harris to Patrick Ambrose this week? Harris just fell in price and seems destined for the green vest. Ambrose has had 2 very solid scores and is set to return this week and make some cash. I know you said no sideways trades but there is some instant value in this trade.

Would love your thoughts.

GarglesnarfFC

It's great IF Ambrose returns, the mail I'm reading says he isn't.

@Da_Mad_Irishman

Yeah if you really think your team needs some extra cash generation I don't see this one as a major problem. That is if Ambrose is indeed back this week

@daveywarhol

Strong word is Ambrose is out for a couple of weeks. And there is a real shortage of cheap fwds, so keep JKH on the pyne and hope he gets a full game!

Mungos Men

Roos cant play JKH as sub for much longer… just not helping him develop only getting a quarter of game time, im picking he gets dropped and will smash it at VFL then back for first full game.

Reecescoach

Hey fellas love the page,
Which of these do you think is the best
A) Jaensch and Harvey
B) Merrett and Bartel/Hanley
C) Petrie and Swallow
Cheers

GarglesnarfFC

For who?

GarglesnarfFC

For who?

Without knowing A, but it's a bit like 'how long is a piece of string?'

Danners16

Why Petrie?

roger

get rid of petrie, i did so in round 2, saved myself a massive cash fall. Brought in reiwoldt who is holding his money, now i used that cashfall to upgrade michie to dunstan

David

Rank 534 – (27 trades left, $82,700 rem. salary)

Rd 2: Rockliff > Treloar
Rd 3: Rohan > Ambrose, Clurey > Jaensch

Wondering what people think about Viv Michie? I guess in the case that he plays (seemingly unlikely after no significant injuries for Melbourne and his not being named in the best for Melbourne's VFL team) then I'll just keep him. Assuming he doesn't play, should I be looking at Josh Kelly or waiting a week on Matt Crouch?

GarglesnarfFC

He broke his jaw and is out 4. Trade to Kelly is good, or wait or week and get Crouch for $90k less.

cyril

David, Michie has a broken jaw and will be out for a while

canman1306

Very hard Decision their are arguments to pick each of them as David Said
But I think I would pick JKelly as he has very solid JS

Chooka

Thoughts on Dylan Buckley, only $133,000. Looks likely to play each week.

LukTon

Are you suggesting trading Rockliff out for Treloar??

Just about every team has that player who, no matter what the opposition throw at him, he just can't be held down. These are the kind of players we want to get in our team come the end of the year. For instance, Geelong has Selwood, Essendon has Watson, and Adelaide have Dangerfield. I propose that Brisbane have one too; Rockliff.

Treloar may very well be one of those guys, but considering his average of 87 last year, how can we be SURE that his form at the start of this year is sustainable?

Also, just do one check the opposition so far for GWS and Brisbane. What will happen when GWS, who have now been noted by the rest of the competition as no easy beats this year, go up against some genuine finals contenders in the coming rounds?

KEEP ROCKY! He is in that upper echelon of stars in our competition.

Scott

Hey Mick,

Great article as always.
While reluctant to trade in Jaensch, I do have Hurn sitting on the bench, which warrants a little further thought. No one else knocking down the door.

1) Trade in KK. However at $200K, if he averages around 65, he'll only make us $100K.
2) Trade in a premium, Birchall is about the same price, and looks good with all the attention on Suckling.
3) Jaensch. While we'd only get $100K from the downgrade, instead of the $200K for KK, we would expect more points, prob 20-25 more than KK per week. At an avg of 85, we can probably hold him a few weeks past the byes as a last upgrade, and still make roughly the $100K we'll get from KK.

Thoughts on how Hurn may change thoughts on Jaen?

Danners16

I like the look of Jaensch, getting 100's when the team is losing

@Da_Mad_Irishman

I like your thinking

Injuries warrant trades, so Jaensch becomes relevant in this instant. To be honest I see him averaging the same as Birchall so I'd go with him. keep him as your 6th defender and who knows he might keep it up for the year and become a keeper.

mick

thoughts on caddy to breust and mundy to tyson and 100,000

GarglesnarfFC

Looks like a great way to waste two trades. Why go sideways and down? What is your reasoning?

@Da_Mad_Irishman

I assume you picked Mundy as a keeper so i'd be inclined to do just that, keep him. Wait a couple of weeks and turn caddy into a premo with a rookie downgrade.

bloke

Only trade I've made this week (and plan to) is Luey down to HMac. West is affecting Luey more than I thought, even sharing HMac will make me some cash. Once NicNat finds form, I'll go HMac to him.

canman1306

Hey mate, Why don't you just wait it out Leuy and HMAC Will average about the same until the byes.
Getting Hmac in and then trading to Nic-Nat will cost you 2 trades instead of 1.
What if Leuy Finds form?

bloke

I just don't think that Luey is in a "forces slump". I seriously believe West is stealing his points. Even by looking at hit out numbers you can see that West and Luey are almost 50/50 splitting the ruck time. Up till now, HMac has averaged more points and by round 8 will be the same value if not higher than Luey. I just can't see the value in holding onto Luey, I think I made a judgement error in my initial team

Jack

Viv Michie out for 4 weeks with a broken jaw. Who is the next best cheap mid option? Already have dunstan, aish, crouch and polec.

Am thinking Josh Kelly, or swap Langdon to mids and get 'Thumper'.

Thoughts?

cyril

I've got Enright and McEvoy. Trade or hold? Only have Derickx as cover in the ruck. Not sure what the injuries are to either or how long they look like being out for.

Got 213K in the kitty

roger

i still got cameron wood in the side. Currently a good loophole, but hoping he gets a game in the ruck.

cyril

Just read that MceVoy should play this week, if he doesn't it seems like he'd more than likely play the week after so i'll stick with him and cop the 50 odd score Derrickx should give. Still haven't heard about Enright

Vasu

Is it worth trading kade Simpson to a guy like Hanley ? Thoughts community

Branks

Probably not worth a trade Vasu because Simpson might be a keeper by season's end. See if you can get Hanley by upgrading a defence rookie in a couple of weeks instead.

@Da_Mad_Irishman

Nope – back your premos in – Some people thought it was a good idea to trade Hanley out after round 1

Captain joc

And look what he did in rd 2 and 3 stealing crouching ones saying BANG BANG
138 and 120

GarglesnarfFC

That might be the most sensible post on trading I have read all day Dogs! Get Rohan & JKH onto the pine and gets 60-120 pts onto the park. I love it.

Great reasoning, and I can't fault the logic. Just do it!

Coop

Mick would you get Zorko or Roughead for Higgins? I have the coin from doing Hurn to Jaensch last week so may as well spend it. Was always planning to get Zorko but last weeks game as somewhat put me off.

Tough call.

@Da_Mad_Irishman

Zorko will bounce back – still got his stats but just butched the ball. Might have been effected by a heavy bump early in the game

Ocker

I am still corrective trading due to problems in my team.
This week Clurey to KK Who will keep improving on his current scoresl
Rohan to Kelly via swing of Taylor to forward line. Kelly is a Gun.

This should mean Win Win, Cash Cash instead of 2 bad choices in the first place. (I Hope)
And Taylor in forward instead of Rohan.

Cheers.
(Ocker's Options and Opinions)

Ocker

Hopefully this means no trading for a few weeks until the cows have fattened.
The trades are gold this year but think I have to make these 2 cow changes for the cash generation to build up my backs and forwards.

GarglesnarfFC

Sound plan

Ocker

Cheers Gargle.

throttlefinger

Strong moves, Ocker.

Rescued Pieman

Like your thinking Ocker. I am thinking Clurey to KK. Stats suggest good scores not far away. A non playing player to a round 8 bye says meh to me. KK could be a keeper. Kelly looked awesome but he played a garbage side, think hard on that one for 220K

Ocker

Done the research and just been waiting for him to appear. Take him any day over KK.

Cheers.

Swans2014

What do I do with Walters?

Ocker

Options off the top of head.
Dahlhaus, or Darling at about that price.
Darling has a new role this year and seems to be getting midfield time as well as forward.
Depends on bank balance and team structure. League win or overall win.
I would try and stick to guns and rookies if you can.

Cheers.

brick savy

I'm trading hard again………… remembering that for all these words of wisdom last years winner ran out of trades well before the end.
For me – I'm bringing in Jaensh for Clurey
Coniglio for Barlow.
The latter trade I'd like to talk about………

Coniglio hasn't had a score under the ton this season – prestia+macrea also on my mind but Dion is $$$ and Maccrae did have one game at 80.

Shattered about barlow, i'd keep him for the season and even abide 3-4 weeks out, but at 4-6 it's sideways time (sort of) Hoping coniglio can up his value.

Danners16

I really like the look of Coniglio as last week he had a disposal efficiency of 48% so he could of had about 140 nearly last week, depends which rookies you have on the field for Clurey trade

@Da_Mad_Irishman

Coniglio and Jaensh may both need upgrading to higher scoring permos for your run home – BIG RISK but BIG REWARD – go with your gut

GeneralSoreness

Mick that post was like the Anti Mick, nothing Mad in it at all just a lot of sense.

Thanks for helping me take my itchy trigger finger off the trade button! Caddy lives to fight another day!

@Da_Mad_Irishman

Maybe doing nothing is the MAD thing to do this week – lol

I'll bring back the madness next week I promise

sputnik

Seems Walters in going to need ankle surgery, Chapmans resting is begining as unlikely to go west this week and enright I got rid of last week before Swallows price rise. These old boys are great players but once they start having issues of you go. Thats why noone like them or those like Pav are welcome in my team. No more burn alowed no matter how good they go. that includes you zorko.

SCaddict

Mick I'm strongly entertaining a Daisy down to either a J.Kelly or M.Crouch deal. I have a strong bunch of rookie mids with Tyson, Polec, Dunstan and Xman and their scores are wasted on the pine each week, especially when they eclipse Daisy's numbers most rounds.

Daisy could run amok this weekend against the Dees but is probably more likely to be a fairly slow burn. Could take him another month to crack $400K which is a pretty poor return for the risk assumed. No doubt he will become a decent player post byes but not convinced we can wait that long.

This move will also generate a decent serving of cash to consider a Langford to KK trade or a JKH to Lewis switch should we get some bad news at the selection table this Thursday. As well as free up some room to move should Sandi go down in the next few weeks.

SCaddict

Mick I'm strongly entertaining a Daisy down to either a J.Kelly or M.Crouch deal. I have an excellent bunch of rookie mids since Rd1 with Tyson, Polec, Dunstan and Xman and their scores are wasted on the pine each week, especially when they eclipse Daisy's numbers most rounds.

Daisy could run amok this weekend against the Dees but is probably more likely to be a fairly slow burn. Could take him another month to crack $400K which is a pretty poor return for the risk assumed. No doubt he will become a decent player post byes but not convinced we can wait that long.

This move will also generate a decent serving of cash to consider a Langford to KK trade or a JKH to Lewis switch should we get some bad news at the selection table this Thursday. As well as free up some room to move should Sandi go down in the next few weeks.

SCaddict

Mick I'm strongly entertaining a Daisy down to either a J.Kelly or M.Crouch deal. I've had an excellent bunch of rookie mids since the get go with Tyson, Polec, Dunstan and Xman and their scores are wasted on the pine each week, especially when they usually eclipse Daisy's numbers most rounds.

Daisy could run amok this weekend against the Dees but is probably more likely to be a fairly slow burn. Could take him another month to crack $400K which is a pretty poor return for the risk assumed. No doubt he will become a decent player post byes but not convinced we can wait that long.

This move will also generate a decent serving of cash to consider a Langford to KK trade or a JKH to Lewis switch should we get some bad news at the selection table this Thursday. As well as free up some room to move should Sandi go down in the next few weeks.

bloke

That was meant to say form slump btw

@Da_Mad_Irishman

wait one more week then go Nic Nait

SCaddict

Mick I'm strongly entertaining a Daisy down to either a J.Kelly or M.Crouch deal. I've had an excellent bunch of rookie mids since the get go with Tyson, Polec, Dunstan and Xman, and their scores are wasted on the bench each week, especially when they usually eclipse Daisy's numbers most rounds.

Daisy may run amok this weekend against the Dees but is probably more likely to be a fairly slow burn in the short to medium term. Could take him another month to crack $400K which is a pretty poor return really for the risk assumed. No doubt he will become a decent player post byes but not convinced we can wait that long.

This move will also generate a decent dollop of coin to consider say a Langford to KK upgrade or a JKH to Lewis switch should we get some bad news at the selection table this Thursday. As well as free up some room to move should Sandi or another key premium go down in the next few weeks.

THE SALTSHAKER

Yeah im thinking similiar, however Daisys propensity to go large is directly related to the week i trade him out haha

SCaddict

At least it's a downgrade to a rookie so wouldn't feel quite as foolish if Daisy does tonne up this weekend which is a distinct possibility no doubt. A lot of acid on the Blues playing group to respond this weekend, very likely at the Dee's expense.

Rescued Pieman

Daisy has landed at a very ordinary team on a great salary. Not SC relevant for me this year. Cash in I think is a good option.

SCaddict

Yeah bit of a failed experiment. We all have players that don't quite turn out as we'd maybe hoped unless you are ranked in the top 100 I suppose ha ha.

With the 30 trades it does give you a little more license to take some early risks and then fix up the ones that don't pan out.

@Da_Mad_Irishman

This is a trade I have considered and could very well pay off as I have had the likes of Dunstan on the bench last weekend. However I'm willing to run with Daisy for another couple of weeks. The rate people are trading him out, keeping him turns him into a POD – wouldn't be surprised to see him tonne up this week

SCaddict

Daisy does look like he is on the improve so those who hang on could be richly rewarded.

However both Crouch and Kelly look to be decent rookies to get into your team for differing reasons especially when one's current midfield bench crew are averaging around a tonne themselves!

It's going to be hard for me not to make this trade but will hang back and see what the rest of the week throws up first.

JJM

Mick you madman hanging on Caddy. But I love it, I was just about to turn Caddy into Bruest. Looks like I wont be burning any trade this week.

thewoodsman

Thinking of just the one trade this week as I have gone BANG BANG trade wise.
Rohan out for Merrett. Will leave around $72k. Will mean Merrett F6 Caddy F5 but JKH still on the bench with Impey. Going for overall & cash league, currently around 5500 I then happy to wait for upgrade season and ride the wave till then.

throttlefinger

Great advice, Mick. Holding still. Temptation to go McV or Houli to Jaensch is great. Need to hold tight and show some faith. Can't let frustrations of sub 2200 scores waste a precious trade.

Christ, it's gonna be hard not hitting that trade button. Like sitting next to a craps table and just watching..

Ocker

Making 2 Corrective trades this week mate.
Look about 10 comments above, Just cooking tea I shall return.

Cheers.

throttlefinger

Those are strong trades, Ocker. Really like Kelly and think KK will be that cash cow that Clurey didn't turn out to be.

THE SALTSHAKER

stick with mcveigh throtts is a keeper

throttlefinger

Agree, Salty. Thanks, my man. Need to exercise some patience with the boys…hope they return the love R4.

Rescued Pieman

Agreed Throttle. KK is a great Clurrey replacement! At least he will play & could be in your team for some time.

Rescued Pieman

If I dont have KK I have to have Langford or Boy Georgio on the ground. That is painful. As neither have the potential to go big like KK could.

throttlefinger

Yep, that is rough. Do you have the cash to swing to Langford? May be worth 1 trade. Not 2. I'd like to do that but don't have the loot to make it happen.

Ocker

throttle, Not even thinking of trading McVeigh, I think he will be there at the end of the year.

Cheers mate

throttlefinger

Yep. Been a bit frustrated by McV and Houli's scores yet they will turn it around. Patience not my strong suit, Ocker. But no reason to bring anyone in. Only concerns are my bench refs Langford and CCameron not playing but still not a reason to waste a trade.

Thanks Big O!

Danners16

Josh Kelly seems like a very good player, I'm thinking about trading him in for Michie as well

DJ 1985

R.shaw to b Griffiths?

Matt

I’m getting slightly frustrated with Kade Simpson and even more frustrated that I didn’t jump on Swallow(Also missed out on Dom Tyson *Facepalm) I believe Swallow will be in the top 10 defenders should I think about trading Simpson to Swallow. I have 100k and I’m planning to upgrade a rookie next week thoughts.

@Da_Mad_Irishman

Simpson will be a top 10 defender too – keep the faith – look to get swallow in as the season goes on. he will have a bad game eventually and just be ready to swoop at a good price

Matt

Cheers Mick, it seems like I’ll be trade free this week.

matt

im in the same boat, hes got melbourne this week, hoping he hits 115,if not hes up for a trade

Michael

I want to get rid of caddy this week. I have 91,000k in the bank but I’m happy to use 2 trades to get him out! thanks

MightyDonsFC

What other players do you have?

dogsfoot

I have cloake and he is killing me. Also have Rohan, JKH and Mcdonut.
What should I do.
Thinking Cloake/Breust
Mcdonut/ Merritt

Danners16

Never go key forwards, who is McDonut?

Ocker

McDonough could play soon he is going really well in VFL.

Cheers.

Azza

Last time Cloke played against Richmond he scored 195, and the game before that 122! Might be worth the risk to hold another week..

Steve

Gday Boys got some serious problems, terrible start made so many errors with risky picks and now sit about 70,000 in the rankings,
Ive gone too light in my fwds I have rohan as F4, who is an option to bring in for him? I want someone who I can set and forget and who will be consistent as buggery money no issue already have Zorko, T Mitchell, Danger,
Also what to do with Matty Leunberger? really disappointing me but I don't want to sideways trade
thanks guys

Derek

Steve I feel your pain. I had Guthrie at D2 and was trying to work out how the hell he got there. Fortunately he has been replaced by Hanley. If you have Rohan at F4, i'm scared to ask who you have at F5 and F6.

You could do a lot worse than the oldies: Chappy, Franklin, Pav, Martin, JRoo, Rioli, Petrie. All tried and tested and relatively cheap.

If you have guts, you could wait a couple of weeks and get Petrie for under $400k.

pieman

Fasolo

Azza

I'd go Pav Stevo.

Danners16

Hey guys, I have had a look at some players and one that no one has talked about is Stephen Coniglio. Averagign nearly 110 I think, 100 in all 3 games $430,000 is a pretty good price and a good POD as only 2000 people have him. Could it be the year of the draft of Dom Tyson and Coniglio? Thinking of trading Shuey out for him. Thoughts?
Also thoughts on Marc Murphy, could only just hold off the tag of Hocking

Rescued Pieman

Murph is playing Melb this week. That's a free 130 plus. Will be scarred by last week. Look for a big responce. HOLD

Branks

Shuey will be back next week, so I'd hold. Murphy has done pretty well so far, averaging about 107, but it is clear he cannot handle a tag. If you have him, its probably best not trading him and just hoping he doesn't get tagged every week.

throttlefinger

Agree with Branks. Both are doing solid. Plus Judd coming back should help Smurph a bit.

Ocker

Murphy is very capable of averaging 120's like he used too. Don't be in a hurry to trade him because of one absolutely shocking Carlton performance.
I gave Coniglio a lot of thought pre season but I don't believe he can be top 10 Gun Mids this year. The same with Wines and others I considered. They may increase in value but not as much as a good rookie and mids is where they come from.

Cheers

@daveywarhol

Danners, I was looking into a solid D6 and noted that two Giants players have performed well (Bugg and Hampton.) Not being a GWS fan myself, I don't know a lot about these blokes so I had a look at the stats.

They have already played two cellar-dwellars (Saints and Dees) and Sydney in a rain affected game. In fact 2 of the 3 games were rain affected. Unfortunately for me this makes their data irrelevant, so I'm extremely reluctant to pick Treloar, Coniglio, JKelly or anyone else for that matter.

Don't want to rain on your parade though, it's amazing what GWS have achieved already this year and would be happy to be proven wrong.

THE SALTSHAKER

Good article Mick my sentiments exactly

cyril

I'm wondering if I should use a trade or two trades on trying to get more cash cows in.

Currently got Mcdonald, Georgio, Langford, Clurey in DEF

M.Thomas, Tyson, Dunstan, Polec Ellis, Michie in MIDS

Ambrose, Rohan and JHK in FORWARDS

Is that going to be enough cash made or should I look at getting rid of Clurey for KK and Michie for a Kelly???

@Da_Mad_Irishman

Michie to Kelly

Derek

Early in the season it is easy to forget how valuable trades become later in the year. Anyone of us who have played this great game in the past will remember how we would give anything for just one more trade the week before the finals.

The problem is that we can easily forget this in the trade frenzy at the start of a new season.

Take a deep breath and think back to last July when you had almost run out of trades and Freo decide to rest half their midfield, what you wouldn’t give for an extra trade.

Don’t burn trades. Be happy with the Rookies you have no side ways trades. Welcome.

cyril

Thanks Derek, your probably right.

Rescued Pieman

Great point Derek. No more than 4 trades used after this round if you can. All corrective or BALLSY. Unless you have massive problems. My first 8 trades last year were corrective & i had 1 to enter finals with, OUCH!

thewoodsman

Yep upon further consideration I will sit tight and keep running Rohan or Impey at F6 for another week.
Time for cool heads.

Swans2012

I know I shouldn't be trading but…… thinking maybe r gray – Cyril this week. Gray has been going ok 110 79 79 approx but I have come to the conclusion that he's not a keeper and I feel Cyril might be. Can do this week with one trade but probably won't be able to afford it next week After Cyril's likely price wise. Thoughts? If I did it I'd have 27 trades left, currently ranked 795 and keeping the overall dream alive…..

Rescued Pieman

Cyril has a habbit of missing chucks of the season with hammy's. Take a look at history & buyer beware. Great rank well done

Branks

I'd do it. You gotta risk it for the biscuit.

MightyDonsFC

Trade gray out at your peril

thewoodsman

I have Robbie Gray also at F4. I have flirted with the idea of upgrading him to a more likely top 6 forward as I only have Danger and took a punt on JJK being there or there a bouts.
I still see more tons and more cash. I will be keeping Gray but will reassess come the bye rounds.

Swans2012

Yeah I reckon I'll hold now, just got that little niggle that Cyril might let me down when I need him, Gray might average 10 less but all that would be eroded by a 1 week rest or 3 week hammy from Cyril. Plus on closer inspection Grays 79 this week was better than it looked with 24 disposals, just not goaling let him down. Anyway he lives to score another day…..

roger

Cyril fades, i would go to bruest if you have that cash.

pieman

Are you talking Zack Merrett? i have the same problem!

Dogs

Nope, Jackson merret, I have some spare cash from downgrading Barlow to swallow last week

michael

Hi there – ruck question. I have grundy and Sandi combo with two non-playing rucks on bench, Thurlow and King. I can afford a sideways trade – King to either Currie or Derickx, who will at least generate some $. Which of these guys has best JS?

MightyDonsFC

Don't do it, rucks rookies aren't important at all

thewoodsman

Agree with MDFC, Neither Currie or Derickx, are worth a trade. Especially this year.

Captain joc

No point doing it cause your not gonna get the chance to downgrade him so it would waste 2 trades

@daveywarhol

Great article, Mick. Personally I am going for overall rank (currently in top 2000). I can see two positions that need to be filled ASAP, the F6 and the D6. Have decided to trade Caddy out for Dom Tyson (bringing Zorko into the fwd line) and trading out Tom Clurey for Jaensch.

I see Jaensch purely as a D6, priced around 360k with a breakeven still in the negatives. If he does continue to score 85-90 from here on, I would be happy with that, and if he occasionally cracks the ton again, even better.

Dom Tyson has gone up 90k, but he too has cracked the ton in all his games so far. If I can pick up a mature body for less than 300k (with breakeven still in the negs too), then I would be happy with a 80-100 score for weeks to come (rd 10 bye always helps too)

The majority of people came in to the season with Suckling and Daisy at these prices, but with 3 weeks of data and negative breakevens, it's worth the extra 150k I have to spend now than if I got them last week.

Gotta love supercoach, keeps my interest in footy alive while the Demons curse continues. All the best Clarky, can't believe it was only 15 games.

@Da_Mad_Irishman

love all your thinking here. My problems lie with D5 and D6 as I've gone a little top heavy due to lack of forwards. If you are happy with Jaensch as your D6 then go for it. As I said I think he's good for that 85-90 average and is currently great value.

great rank and best of luck with the year

@daveywarhol

That's the thing about Mundy, just like Priddis they always hit the ton and stop. While 100 is very handy, they are taking a spot in your MID which could be filled with someone who is capable of 130+. But if you've got 'em, you gotta stick with 'em.

JOE

Matty Leunberger, what to do? thanky boys

MightyDonsFC

Hold for another week, then go to jacobs or goldy

@Da_Mad_Irishman

Hold – both could be back this week

The Ranger

Hey Mick, thanks to some good advice from you and yours I've managed to break the top 2000 this week and I'm holding fast on Thomas, Caddy and Higgins for a while yet but can I get your view on rookie to rookie trading?
Little Lincoln McCartney didn't get a game last week…..

Harrison

McCartney will play this week

bloke

What happens if Luey falls in price and becomes cheaper than NicNat? I have pretty much zero cash. His break even is something like 150 isn't it?