Hello again community and welcome to our round 4 TAT (Tight Arse Tuesday). I think most teams had a better round 3 than the previous week and hopefully those of you going for league wins, got off to a good start.
Round 4 is an awkward round to be trading in. Ideally we would all like to have finished our corrective trades before the price rises, but many of us are probably still looking at big holes in some positions across our teams. For those of you with cash in the bank after a couple of corrective downgrades last week, you should be able to pick out a premium upgrade to fill a hole this week. However, for those of you with little or no cash in the bank, the prospect of a corrective trade this week can be difficult. None of our rookies are anywhere near ripe enough to be plucked just yet, making an upgrade, downgrade scenario neon impossible. That will leave many coaches contemplating a sideways trade this week, and this is where we get into dangerous territory.
Most of us know we shouldn’t perform a sideways trade, yet every year we somehow get sucked into doing one or two. Go on, don’t lie, we all know who we are! And every year within a matter of rounds we end up regretting them and look back on themas wasted trades. So far this year I have had friends perform the following trades:
- Hanley to Bartell after round 1 (down 78pts)
- Libbratore to Treloar after round 1 (down 15pts)
- Mitchell to Swallow after round 2 (down 12pts)
- Franklin to Zorko after round 2 (down 84pts)
I know it’s only very early and you can’t make judgement on the success of a trade after a couple of rounds, but I can’t see any of those trades doing better than breaking even over the course of the season. To me they are all wasted trades, which will most likely come back and really hurt you when you need that extra trade come finals.
What we now really need to be asking ourselves is:
Are those big holes in our teams, really that big? Thus do they warrant us using a trade now, and the bigger question is do they warrant us using a sideways trade? Can we wait it out for two more weeks after some more rookie cash generation? They are questions you will need to answer for yourself. Many have already bypassed these questions and gone straight for the trade button, where there are two names that seem to have caught the eye of many a prospective buyer.
3 Round Average 109.67
Current Price $364,600
Priced to Average 70
Matthew has got off to a great start to the season and is currently the equal second highest ranking defender. Currently owned by just 6% of all coaches, Matthew is definitely a POD pick, well at least before this week anyway. He has been in the system now for 4 years and he hasn’t exactly shown anything that would suggest that he is Supercoach relevant in that period of time. His largest Supercoach average of 74.7came in his second season and he has failed to kick on from there. It is also worth pointing out he is yet to play a full season, with 13 games being his largest total, again coming in his second year.
Well clearly something has changed to see Jaensch go for very ordinary Supercoach scores to his current run of three Supercoach tonnes. To put it in prospective, he only managed one supercoach tonne in his four years at AFL level before this year.
The answer to that is clearly a change in role, and maybe more importantly some absentees that are currently on the Crows injury list. Namely Ricky Henderson and Nathan van Berlo. Henderson played the rebounding defender role at the Crows for the most part of last season and managed to average 105pts per game from round 14 to 20 before a knee injury ended his year. Henderson was tipped to continue that role this year but after suffering a broken fibula after being tackled during a team session during the preseason, Ricky hasn’t played this year, and isn’t due back for another 4-5months. That has to be a good thing for Jaensch as he is pretty much guaranteed the rebounding role for the rest of the year. To see what that actually means for Jaensch’s numbers, lets that a look at his stats so far this year.
As you can see he has green and red in pretty much all the desirable rows you would want. The massive two stats that have caught my eye from the above table are the 25 disposals he has a game and the whopping 93% disposal efficiency. When you get the ball that many times and you use it that well, it’s not hard to see why he is scoring so well.
Stats don’t lie but they also have many hidden truths. The fact that he has such a high disposal efficiency, over 75% of his possessions have been uncontested, he’s been averaging 8.3 marks a game and 2.7 bounces a game tells me that he has been left unchecked by the opposition so far this year.
That is all well and good so far but if me and you are taking note of him now, what do you think coaches who get paid for a living are doing right now? This seems to happen every year where a player has a change of role across the half back and the opposition are unaware over the first few rounds, and we see them rack up the possessions. Of course this doesn’t last long and the more they influence games the more attention they get. Luckily for Jaensch owners to date Adelaide haven’t won any of their games and thus Jaensch may go a little longer into the season before he sees some attention.
If you think Jaensch will keep up his current stats I think you would be very naive. It is most likely he will end up averaging something close to the person whose role he has replaced, Ricky Henderson.
I’d expect his disposals to come down closer to the 20 mark and disposal efficiency to come down to the 75% mark over the rest of the year. We all know this will lead to a decrease in average supercoach score too.
The Mad Irishman’s Verdict
2014 Predicted Status: Strong Midpricer
Predicted Average from here on out: 86-90pts
There is still value in Jaensch at his current price but the big question you should be asking yourself is he going to be a keeper for the year and thus worth the trade now. I can’t see him finishing in the top 10 defenders for the year and that is why I won’t be considering him this week. However if you still have some horror selections in your backline Jaensch just might be the man to fill a hole, just don’t expect premium output every week.
3 Round Average 103
Current Price $332,400
Priced to Average 64
Jackson Merrett is another player who has got off to a great start to the season and is currently the seventh highest ranking forward. Currently owned by just 4% of all coaches, Jackson is also a POD pick. He has been in the system now for 2 years and going into his third at age 21 he is definitely in that breakout zone.
As Jackson has really only played one season prior to this year it is very hard to read into any of his past AFL stats. I have given you his stats below to show you where is current supercoach scores are coming from.
Averaging 24 possessions, running at 77.7%, 5.3 tackles and 2.3 clearances a game all adds up to healthy supercoach scoring. That’s all well and good knowing what he did over the first 3 rounds, but the hard part now is predicting what he can do for the rest of the year and thus is it worth trading him in now?
It’s hard to know where anyone at Essendon are playing these days with players seamlessly rotating positions on a week to week and quarter to quarter basis. Merrett was named in the forward pocket against the blues but played more of a half forward/midfielder, roaming across the ground picking up disposals at ease against the inept weak minded Blues. (Gosh how bad where they?). This is the beauty of the Bombers right now, they seem to have an extra number at every contest, and an extra man every time they spread. It’s almost like they are playing with extra numbers on field. If they didn’t have such clean track record I might think they were cheating ….. oh wait …. Hey did anyone actually count how many players they used on Sunday!
All joking aside you might have remembered me discussing Melbourne last week and how with their high disposal game, a lot of their players are very relevant Supercaoch picks. Well if that is the case for Melbourne then we really should be taking note of Essendon because so far this year they have been Supercoach Kings. (Just wish Paddy Ryder got the memo)
- Round 3: Essendon 1945pts vs Carlton 1355pts
- Round 2: Essendon 1882pts vs Hawthorn 1418pts
- Round 1: Essendon 1980pts vs North 1320pts
Essendon have managed to average 1935 Supercaoch points a week so far this year, which is a staggering number. Under Mark Thomson the bombers have increased their disposal numbers from the already pretty healthy number of 375 in 2013 to a massive 435 in 2014. When you consider most teams will put work into limiting Watson’s, Goddard’s, Heppell’s or Stanton’s numbers then many of the next rung of players are going to benefit from such a high disposal game plan. Jackson Merrett just happens to be one of those players.
Here’s the hard part, how do I tie all this together and predict what Merrett will average for the rest of the year. On past experience Essendon have been renowned for their second half of the year fade outs. (must be a come down from some sort of high.. who knows what that might be?) However I don’t actually think that will happen this year under Bomber Thomson. However my experience of young break out players does suggest that Merrett will at some point during the season go through a form dip that will ultimately lead to a drop off in average.
The Mad Irishman’s Verdict
2014 Predicted Status: Strong Midpricer
Predicted Average from here on out: 88-92pts
I know many will be tempted to go Caddy to Merrett this week but you really got to ask yourself in the long term is this trade worth it. I just can’t see Merrett becoming a keeper and will most likely need to be traded on again later in the year. Don’t get me wrong, Merrett still has value at his current price but as a fellow Caddy owner I think it’s best to wait a couple more weeks and turn Caddy into a forward keeper.
Don’t Trade – (Pick of the Week)
Each week I have been providing you with a “Pick of the Week Selection”. However as I said in my intro, round 4 is an awkward round to be trading in and most trades performed in this round are sideways in nature.
I personally haven’t got off to the start I wanted and am currently ranked around the 15,000 mark. I have all of Thomas, Caddy and Higgins in my team but panic trading at this stage in the hope to better my score by a maximum of 40-50pts a round over the next couple of weeks is not the way to go. Once those rookies make a few more $dollars$ I can upgrade to the premiums I want and not just some stop gap.
Back your men in. I’m betting those holes aren’t as big as you think they are!
Stay tuned ….
Mick the Mad Irishman