Credit where it is due; The Sportsbet lines were very accurate this week with four of the nine games being forecasted to within 10.5 points. As published previously, I am in this until season’s end or until my $100 runs out.
Round 2 output statistics
|Round 2||Winner||Margin||Machine Error||Sportsbet Error|
|Tigers V Blues||Tigers||12||12||3.5|
|Ess. V Hawks||Hawks||16||4||10.5|
|Saints V GWS||Saints||7||6||21.5|
|Port V Adelaide||Port||54||62||47.5|
|Freo V G.Coast||Freo||48||22||12.5|
|Sydney V C.Wood||C.Wood||10||60||31.5|
|Bris. V Geelong||Geelong||25||9||0.5|
|Demons V WCE||WCE||93||45||51.5|
|Dogs V North||North||29||35||9.5|
|Average Game Error||28.33||20.94|
And the Round 2 Summary Table;
|The Machine GAME ERORR||Sporstbet GAME ERROR||No. Bets||Wins||Profit/Loss||Bank (Starting with $100)|
And now to this week’s bets;
|Round 3||Formulated Winner||Formulated Margin||Sportsbet Line||Diff.||BET|
|1||Hawks V Freo||Freo||8||6.5||1.5||No bet|
|2||Dogs V Tigers||Tigers||34||18.5||15.5||$5 TIGERS at line|
|3||Crows V Swans||Swans||7||6.5||0.5||No bet|
|4||GCS V Lions||GCS||13||7.5||5.5||No bet|
|5||WCE V Saints||WCE||34||63.5||29.5||$5 SAINTS at line|
|6||C.Wood V Cats||Cats||12||8.5||3.5||No bet|
|7||GWS V Demons||GWS||21||22.5||1.5||No bet|
|8||North V Port||Port||6||4.5||1.5||No bet|
|9||Ess. V Carlton||Ess.||27||14.5||12.5||$5 ESS. at line|
Can The Machine fight back?
This week I was a little pleased to see The Machine’s lines more closely match Sportsbet’s lines. Currently it has won five of its 11 bets ….. three wins this week will have The Machine back in profit by a whopping $6.80.
Of course, the money is of little interest to me. What really excites me is the ability to take on the Sportsbet model through the use of my own mathematical forecasting.