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Tight Arse Tuesday, Round 3

Published by Jock on

mick-the-madHello again community and welcome to our round 3 TAT (Tight Arse Tuesday). I hope you had a good supercoach weekend, but I’m guessing a lot of you are reading this from a similar position to myself.

I had a shocker of a weekend with suspensions, under performing premiums, late outs, injuries and wrong rookies on the field. You name it and it went wrong. However it is no time to panic people. As a famous Irish artist Van Morison would sing, “well my mama told me there’ll be days like this”.

It was just one round and while it wasn’t at all pleasurable watching on in horror as our teams fell apart, we must remember it is a 22 round year and this one horror round will not define our seasons. Besides we don’t have time to dwell on the past because we are now entering one of the most import weeks of the year. It’s now round 3 and we all know what that means, last chance corrective trades before the price changes.

Of course there will be many trade options and player combinations on offer to the thousands of coaches out there, and not all of them will work out to be successful. We often get blinded by the past scores, break evens and projected price rises and falls without fully understanding some or all of those concepts.

I’ve talked about this in past years, but one of the biggest mistakes we make as coaches is chasing last week’s points. We get drawn to the big scores of the players we don’t have in our teams. We feel we are missing out and we get sucked into thinking we must jump on before we miss out on any more scores like the ones we have missed. However there is the big question we don’t ask ourselves in this decision process; will there be any more scores like this. Don’t just assume there will be and look at the big scores in isolation. Ask yourself if they are scoring well because they are now performing a new role, getting more time on the ball or coming into break out territory with natural development. If none of these things are true then alarm bells would be going off for me.

I’ll use Nick Riewoldt as an example. He is currently averaging 142.5 after two rounds. Does he have a new role? No! Is he playing more time on the ball? No! Is he coming into break out territory? No! Simply speaking Riewoldt has just had two great games, against weaker opposition. Last season he averaged 105 SC points a round. He had 5 games where he scored over 130pts from his 22 rounds. However he also had 7 games below 90 SC points. I don’t doubt for one moment that Riewoldt won’t average in or around 105 again this season. However I have now missed two of his really big scores and if he does aveage 105 for the year it will mean that he will average 101.25 for the rest of the year. Not bad, but is he worthy of moving heaven and earth to make him one of your corrective trades this week? That’s a no for me.

There is however one player who has smashed out some massive scores over the first two weeks of the year and he will feature in my “Pick of the Week” segment at the end of this article. Before we get onto that, I thought I would take a look at some “Tight Arse Options” from the Melbourne Demons.

Now I’m sure a lot of you would be thinking why on earth would we consider any Demon players, when they will only get pumped every week? A valid question but the interesting thing is they haven’t actually got pumped every week and I don’t see that changing for the rest of the year either. Confused? Well, yes the Eagles might have beaten them by 93pts on the weekend but they only just beat them in what matters to us, Supercoach points. The Eagles won the Supercoach battle by just 180pts, 1740 to 1560 and both clubs had 8 players each that scored over 85pts, with 4 players each scoring over 100. The week before, despite losing to the Saints on the field, they actually won the Supercoach battle 1675 to 1625.

So why are Melbourne scoring so well.

It’s a simple answer really, new coach, new game plan and new players filling the roles required. We all know Paul Roos has come in to coach the Demons and what he has brought is a high possession game plan that focuses on keeping possession and being patient going forward. They have also added some great midfield depth with Cross, Vince and Tyson coming in and playing vital roles within the new coach’s game plan. We can get a better idea of what has changed at the Demons if we compare the first two rounds of this year with their stats from 2013.

Image 1

As you can see Melbourne has increased in average disposals per game by 80.9, or a whopping 25.4% from 2013. This is a massive number and after 2 rounds Melbourne is second only to Essendon for total number of possessions. As we know possessions are key to fantasy scoring. The fact that they have high disposal efficiency as they tend to keep the ball with lots of short kicks makes me stand up and take note. With most players coming from pretty ordinary years last season there should be plenty of value “Tight Arse Picks” for us to choose from.

Lynden Dunn

2 Round Average 98
Breakeven 51
Current Price $444,400
Priced to Average 82.4

Owned by just 0.44% of all coaches, Lynden is definitely a POD pick. He has been in the system now for 7 years and he hasn’t exactly shown anything that would suggest that he is Supercoach relevant in that period of time. His largest Supercoach average of 82.4 coming last season and everything before that is pretty ordinary to say the least.

Image 2

So why would be consider him now? Well a lot of those extra possessions that Melbourne are winning are coming across half back, and with Lynden playing across there he is one of the Demon’s players that is finding the ball in his hands a lot more under Paul Roos.

Image 3

He has found the ball only on average 2 more times per game but it the other stats that tell the bigger story. His disposal efficiency is currently running at 88.9%, he is kicking it 3.2 times more a game and is marking the ball 4.3 times more a game. This is all a result of both finding the ball from short kicks and giving the ball off with a short kick. More marks, mores kicks and his disposal efficiency all accounting for his current 16 point supercoach average increase on 2013.

Going forward I don’t think much will change with how the Demon’s play and thus I don’t think Lynden’s current stats will change all that much. His really high disposal efficiency is likely to come down a little but I’d actually think he is likely to increase his disposal count closure to 20 as the year goes on. It might not be enough to keep his average at its current 98 but only priced to average 82 there is certainly value in picking him.

The Mad Irishman’s Verdict

2014 Predicted Status: Strong Midpricer
Predicted Average from here on out: 88-92pts

Final Word:
Back men are renowned for inconsistent scoring and you could be doing a lot worse by picking up a solid 90 average player early in the year. Expect he’ll have a solid standard deviation and might just be a good swap from Mr. Standard Deviation himself, Cory Enright.

Jack Grimes

2 Round Average 93.5
Breakeven 56
Current Price $436,500
Priced to Average 80.9

Jack Grimes was actually part of the midfield group in 2013 but has become a permanent member of the defensive group under Paul Roos. Now that would normally be cause for concern in most cases, as you would expect higher output playing through the midfield than you would in the backline. However much like Lynden, Jack is actually finding a lot of the ball playing across the half back flank and is Melbourne’s key player coming out of their defence.

Image 4

Despite going from the Midfield in 2013 to the backline in 2014 he has actually increase his disposal count by 6.2 a game. It should be noted he did have one injury effected game in 2013 but even with this out of his system he still has increased his disposal count by 4 a game. He has been very clean with his disposals, currently running at 83.7%, up 10% on last year. However unlike Dunn, Grimes is playing a more contested game across the backline. He still competes for the ball around the ball ups and boundary throw ins, and is heavily involved when the ball goes to ground inside the Demon’s defensive 50, hence why his handball count is higher than that of Lynden’s.He has also increased his time on ground by over 10% by playing in the back half as he is no longer part of the more frequent midfield rotations. We all know the more time on the ground, the more chance he has of getting his hands on the ball.

Going forward I think Grimes will keep his disposal numbers as high as current levels. He is Melbourne’s most damaging player coming out of the back half so he is more likely to have forward pressure applied by opposition teams but the fact he likes the contested ball just as much as the uncontested and has experience in winning his own ball I don’t think this will affect him as much as it would some pure outside players.

The Mad Irishman’s Verdict

2014 Predicted Status: Strong Midpricer
Predicted Average from here on out: 91-95pts

Final Word:
Been slightly cheaper than Dunn and more likely to score higher I would have to give my nod to Grimes over Dunn. There have been injury issues with Grimes in the past but he did do a full preseason and has looked strong over the first two rounds, running out both games really well. Besides injuries can happen to anyone, just ask the owners of Mitchell, Hodge, Enright and Hurn over the weekend so I wouldn’t let that put you off Grimes for this year. I feel he’s a good chance to be a top 10 defender in 2014.

Daniel Cross

2 Round Average 100
Breakeven 65
Current Price $477,100
Priced to Average 88.5

As you are probably aware Daniel didn’t play at Melbourne in 2013. He was released by the Western Bulldogs and picked up by Melbourne to add experience and depth to their midfield. Cross had been an elite performer for the Doggies in the past but at age 31 and with young talent like Tom Liberatore coming up through the midfield, Daniel was no longer deemed a necessity. A bit stiff perhaps but one man’s junk is another man’s tressure and the Demons were more than happy to give Daniel another season at AFL level.

Image 5

He had his worst year in 2013 averaging 88.5 supercoach points a game. Before this he had two reasonably consistent years averaging just fewer than 100 in both years. I have taken a look back over his stats in this time and as you can see not that much has changed in that period of time.

Image 6

Over the last three years at Western Bulldogs, Cross has slowly started dropping off in most of the stat departments. This year to date he hasn’t found the ball as much as some of the other Melbourne midfield but has been playing more of an enforcement role where he starts out of the middle and works off his direct opponent. He has managed to average a staggering 11.5 tackles a game so far this year, and it is these tackle figures, and not his disposal numbers that has his average at its current healthy 100 points a round.

Going forward I don’t think Cross can keep these kind of tackle numbers. I suspect he will average closer to 6 a game. His contested number will stay close to the 10 a game and I’d expect he’ll find a way to get his disposal numbers up to 22/23 mark for the year. This been the case I don’t expect Cross to get back to his pre 2011 Supercoach form.

The Mad Irishman’s Verdict

2014 Predicted Status: Strong Midpricer
Predicted Average from here on out: 94-98pts

Final Word:
If you have gone with Cross in your initial team I would be pretty happy. He should increase on his output from last year with ease as he will have more opportunity within the Melbourne midfield. However if you don’t have him I wouldn’t be rushing out to get him in as a corrective trade this week. He won’t be a season keeper in your midfield and there are better options at cheaper prices that you’d have to consider before him.

Bernie Vince

2 Round Average 98.5
Breakeven 39
Current Price $424,300
Priced to Average 79

Bernie is another recycled player the Demons picked up in the off season, this time coming from the Adelaide Crows. Bernie shows great promise in his early years and threatened to really break out coming out of 2009. However it never really happened for Bernie and through injury and form he has remained serviceable for the Crows without ever pushing to an elite level.

Image 7

The talent has never been a question and now at a new club under a new coach, the new environment might just be the catalyst for him to produce his very best football. If we look at his stats over the first two rounds versus his last two seasons at Adelaide we can better understand the role he is playing at his new club.

Image 8

No massive surprise here but again the major difference in his stats is all in the disposal category and more specifically in the number kicks and number of marks taken. This, like with what we have discussed with the other players above is all down to the game plan Melbourne are adopting under Paul Roos. Vince is well down on his disposal efficiency in comparison to the rest of the demons we have looked at, and on his last two years for the Crows, but this is most likely down to the fact that he draws the number one tagger from the opposition’s teams. A lot of those ineffective disposals are coming from his contested work on the inside and clearances and inside 50’s where Melbourne are currently offering very little. This is one area where Melbourne really needs to put work into and are really missing Mitch Clark,Jesse Hoganand Chris Dawes at this moment in time. When they do eventually get Dawes back and Hoganto debut it will really help Melbourne and I suspect it might help the likes of Vince increase his disposal efficiency numbers too.

He likes to kick a goal and I wouldn’t be surprised if he improves to close to a goal a game by the end of the season. I suspect Roos will want a little more from him at the stoppages and it wouldn’t surprise me if he works on his tackles and contested numbers a little more while keeping a healthy disposal count of around 25 a game.

The Mad Irishman’s Verdict

2014 Predicted Status: Strong Midpricer/Premium
Predicted Average from here on out: 98-102pts

Final Word:
The only thing stopping me from pushing Vince up to the 105+ player is the fact that he is the most likely to cop a heavy tag in a game or two and only score 60-70pts. That been said he will have games where gets off the leash and he goes the other way pushing 110+. If you have really gone left field and stuffed up a midfield selection then Vince is a solid midprice option as a corrective trade. He won’t be a keeper but he can work his way down to M8 in your side and be your very last upgrade. Priced to average only 79, there is definitely some real value there. He would get the nod over Cross if you were choosing between them both.

Dom Tyson

2 Round Average 108
Breakeven -95
Current Price $216,800
Priced to Average 41

Dom is the last of the three midfield pick-ups I will look at. Coming from GWS, Melbourne liked Dom so much they gave up pick 2 in the national draft to bring him to their club. Dom himself was a number 3 pick in the 2011 national draft but only managed 13 games in his two years at the Giants, as he fell down the pecking order amongst the abundance of young midfield talent. Turning 21 this year, Melbourne has rated the mature body over a new draftee and so far it is looking like a good bit of business. (Although time will be the real judge on this trade). As he has played so little in the previous two years and the games he has played have been with a young side it is hard to gauge anything from looking at his previous stats. However I will show you what he has done so far this year to better understand the role he plays at Melbourne.

Image 9

Surprise, surprise it’s all about the possessions. Dom has a staggering average of 31 disposals a game with a nice even split of kicks to handballs and a really high disposal efficiency of over 80%. Again he is finding the ball a lot through short kicks which can be seen through his massive 10.5 marks a game. Looking at the stats it’s not hard to see why he’s averaging 108 Supercoachpoints a game.

In the first couple games Dom has gone unnoticed by the opposition as he really is an unknown entity. However, just like you and I are doing now, opposition coaches will be breaking down his game and his role within the Melbourne midfield group, looking to limit his influence on the game. I don’t see him getting a hard tag but I’d expect that we might see his uncontested and mark numbers lowered over the coming weeks as opposition teams make him more accountable. One club who will know about Tyson is GWS. Will be interested to see how they handle him this weekend.
That being said there are plenty of positives. He has healthy contested numbers, looks like he can kick goals and is good for 3-5 clearances a game. I like this kid.

The Mad Irishman’s Verdict

2014 Predicted Status: Strong Midpricer
Predicted Average from here on out: 89-93pts

Final Word:
He might have been awkwardly priced between the rookies and midpricersthat put a few people off in the preseason, but with his output over the first two rounds, I’d expect many will be using him as a downgrade from a midpricer, or finding the extra cash to upgrade from an underperforming rookie. I’m sure I’ll get asked this question in the comments so, yes I like Dom Tyson over Matt Thomas.

**Note: After doing all this research I have just heard Paul Roo’s on the radio say he is looking to change things up this weekend. Suspect they might be looking to move the ball quicker. Will be interesting to see the disposal count after the game.

DayneZorko – (Pick of the Week)

2 Round Average 141
Breakeven -33
Current Price $447,200
Priced to Average 83

I know a lot of you will be either thinking, well that’s not exactly the most out there selection you have had in this article’s format, while the rest of you are thinking, I thought he said we shouldn’t be chasing last week points.

Well for those of you who think this is an obvious choice I’m betting I have different reasons and for those of you who think I’m chasing last week’s points, I’m not doing that either.

On that issue, I know last week’s points are gone. In fact I think the 162 he got last week will be his highest score for the year. That doesn’t concern me at all. So if I don’t think he can score that high again why would I make him my “Pick of the Week”? Well I’ll go back and ask myself three very important questions.

Is he palying in a new role? Yes! Is he getting more time on ball? Yes! Is he in breakout territory? Yes!

He is playing a new role under a new coach. That role sees an increase of rotations through the midfield. He is now in his third year, has proven he can average over 100 in his first year and after his second year blues he is ready to really break out in 2014.

There will be many out there that are trading him in as they chase last week’s points but in this case they may have stumbled across some actual tressure. The real reason why I feel he is a must trade this week is because we are getting a forward keeper priced at only $447,200. I sincerely doubt he will be this price ever again this year.

Now for the real dreamers out there, he isn’t going to average close to his current average of 141 points a game. A player in his form will eventually draw the attention of the oppositions coaching staff and they will put some work into limiting his influence. He might not get as much time on the ball when Rockliff comes back in either and that’s why I can’t see any more 160+ games. However he will still offer more than enough to be in the top 10 averaging forwards in 2014, if not in the top 6. At his current price I’d be doing everything possible to be getting him in this week.

The Mad Irishman’s Verdict
2014 Predicted Status: Premium
Predicted Average from here on out: 102-106pts

Final Word:
DayneZorko, welcome to the Mayhem!

Next week I will be looking at some smart corrective trades one week into price rises.

Stay tuned ….

Mick the Mad Irishman

 

This weeks riveting news and gossip:

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Podcast: Time to Stand Up and Be Counted


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Jacko

david swallow should also be considered , i have him already but people who dont have him he is only priced at 429,000 and he will surely average close to 100 this year.

Max

Swallow or Zorko? I can get one in, but not both.

@Da_Mad_Irishman

What is your stronger line? If its your forward line trade in Swallow, if its your defense trade in Zorko

JOE RICHARDS

Really? I didn't know. Thank you for enlightening me and the whole community. May Jock bless your sole.

Brad

Mick,
Thoughts on pav please mate… Keep or move him on?

@Da_Mad_Irishman

KEEP PAV – i think he looks good. If he kicked straight in round 1 he would have scored 100+. Round 2 in the rain is really hard for KPP scoring big unless they kick the winner. I blame the weather. I going to go a long the lines of Pav will repay the faith. I might very well be looking to bring him in over the next 3-4 weeks.

wes

Pav will get the Josh Gibson treatment this week. Would that not limit his scoring effectiveness a fair bit?

Don't Argue

Following on from Brads question, would you trade either of Pav or Buddy for Zorko? If so, in which order/
Thanks

Nawtay

I'm keen for advice on this question as well

@Da_Mad_Irishman

I wouldn't trade either. I am always about keeping the faith with your starting premos. If I had to trade one it would prob be Buddy just. The reason just been he's worth more money. Thats a tough decision though but I'd keep both if I had them.

Don't Argue

Thanks for the advice Mick 🙂

vinnymac

I've traded out Franklin for Zorko. I'm sure Franklin will bang out a few ridiculous scores over the season, but I think he will have as many stinkers. I'm keeping Pav

Kev

The wounds from Dayne "Bloody" Zorko's 2013 are still a bit raw for me, Mick…

@Da_Mad_Irishman

I hear you Kev – i have a few scars felt over from through the years. But every year is a new opportunity and every player has to be looked at in isolation and when circumstances have changed we need to let the past go.

New coach, new role, different Zorko – jump back on mate

BillyBob

I really want Zorko but I don't know who to get rid of. I have Dangerfield, Martin, TMitchell, Dahlhaus, Caddy and Higgins. I don't have enough money to trade Caddy or Higgins, and Dangerfield is a premium. Is it worth trading Dangerfield and hoping to pick him back up later?

@Da_Mad_Irishman

BillyBob your forward line looks strong so maybe you have other areas that need a fix before then. If you could find the extra cash Caddy or Higgins would be your only options in that forward line. DO NOT TRADE DANGERFIELD.
do you have any midfield fix ups you need to perform? Remember Zorko is a mid/fwd

BillyBob

My midfield is fine. My backline is in a bit of trouble though. I have Hurn. I'm considering trading Hurn for a rookie like Georgiou to fund Caddy to Zorko. I'll have to field both McDonald and Langdon, but they seem ok and I'll have $300k on the bench ready for a quick upgrade later on.

jacob

maybe go Burn to Kolodashni. He had 19 touched on debut against Frei at Patterson in pooring rain which is why he only 56. I think he’ll average a decent 70 odd. His worth the 197k.

BillyBob

If I trade Caddy and Hurn and get in Zorko, I'll only have 400k for a defender. Not sure if I'm better off getting that rookie, or going for a midpricer.

Captain joc

Hey billybob I’m not sure how much coin hurn is, but I’m guessing his over 400k so my suggestion is hurn to Matthew jaensch 298k midpricer 2 tons set to rise a fair bit and should bank you enough money to go caddy to zorko

Simmo3

Mick I already have Tyson, considering swapping pav > zorko. Or michie > Matt
Thomas.. Any thoughts brother?

Emma

I traded in Grimes last week for SMitchell as I am going for overall and Grimes looked great value.

I am also turning Higgins into Zorko this week. I hope these two trades help me close in on the overall (currently ranked 1,200) ranking.

@Da_Mad_Irishman

Great work Emma 😀
I love the Higgins to Zorko trade and like you I have Grimes in the back line. Best of luck in pushing up that overall rank.

Dools

Excellent work Em. Keep it up!!!!

Emma

thanks Dools this is the best start I have had to supercoach so hoping to keep it going

Jim from Gippsland

absolutely right Mick.

people get sucked in chasing scores for sure.

I call it 'Green fields' syndrome……its always greener on the other side.

Dale

This week, however, you are chasing something more….. A big price rise! It’s a chance to cash in on those past scores whilst fixing issues. The list points can still work for you this week.

Reaper

Jock, Gents & the community, need ya advice…
My problems are (with $65.600 in bank):

DEF: Enright & Mitchell
MID: Matt Crouch
FWD: Rohan, Ken-Har & Thurlow

waiting for injury update later this week then Swallow into DEF (prob for Enright)
plus considering maybe Hanley / Burgoyne / May / Hooker / Dempster for Mitchell (if need be)

or do I only use 1 trade on DEF for Swallow and consider say Matt Thomas / Tyson for Crouch
or even better go Ambrose for Thurlow or Rohan and bank the extra cash…

Thoughs Please

Jim from Gippsland

hey reaper.

things arent as bad as they may first look. Whilst not the perfect rookies, Rohan and JKH are playing and should go up in price however slightly. Hold on these guys.

Enright or Mitchell to Swallow depending on the injury reports is a solid call as well. I would use 1 trade here. Even if both are fit I would still probably move enright to swallow.

Matty Crouch is the harder one. Do you hang out waiting for his eventual selection. We all know he will get a game but what if it is round 5, round 8 round 15? If you go Enright to Swallow then you should have enough to do the obvious Crouch to D Tyson if you dont have him or in order of preference….Polec, Dunstan, X Ellis, Aish, Michie. Even Michie will make a little money but not as much as the others. Trade 2 would be Crouch to Tyson.

My 2 cents…..or 2 dollars…..

Dylan

I would bet Crouch will get the call up this week for his injured brother

Captain joc

Hey mate I heard enright was cleared of any major damage and Chris Scott is giving him until last minute to prove his fitness. Not sure about Mitchell
I reckon crouch might get picked this week as b crouch is out for 6 weeks and there was another player having trouble with his wrist that were in the starting lineup with the Fwds is go Rohan to Ambrose I think Ambrose is set to rise about 60k predicted. We’ll that just my opinion mate 🙂

James

Enright has been cleared of any major damage and may line up this weekend against Collingwood

Swannies

Mitchell and Enright are more then likely to play. Get swallow in some other way

Dale

How likely is this? I can’t find any updates.

Reaper

thanks Gents. appreciate it.

Kenny Powers

Another well researched, comprehensive report Mick. Question community – Is it worth a trade to downgrade Fyfe to M Thomas/D Tyson for a couple of weeks, pick up approximately $120,000 and then bring Fyfe back in when he returns from suspension? I have what I consider to be 14 keepers (15 with Fyfe in) and 140 grand in cash. Any thoughts greatly appreciated.

Cam

I've been contemplating a similar tactic. Would love to get Matty Thomas in for a few weeks but can't really fit him in without offloading someone I'm not ready to yet like Aish or Daisy. I'm hanging on to SMitchell for one more week before making a decision. Fwd line looking pretty solid with Danger, Dusty, Dahlhouse, T.Mitchell Zorko and Caddy seem to have picked the four best DEF rookies (plus 4 premos inc Swallow) so not feeling so bad about running 1 premo light in the guts for a week or two.

Dools

Wow KP Very Good Question my friend, Trades are gold but the lure of quick cash is appealing what happens when another premium goes down (Barlow Knee 4 -5 weeks) You have a plan mate I like it for the cash generation but what happens when the replacement goes down (I understand they have Neg B/E but the possibility is there!) SO if you have weighed it up and you are happy with this strategy GO For IT mate! Please let me Know how it goes KP….. I think it's solid (Non Playing Prem to Performing Rookie)

jack

barlow out for 4-6 weeks knee 🙁 🙁 was going to put fife in but out for 2 weeks, would selwood / pendles / watson be best trade in option, rate selwood pendles miles above watson but round 13 bye more convenient, HELP!, only GAZ and Beams other rd 8 bye mids

Marcus J

Selwood and pendles will both go up in price after this round if they continue to play well so if you dont jump on either now it could be a while before they come back down in price.
pendles had scans on his ankle today, not sure on outcome but they say he'll be right to go.

personally i have selwood and with stevie j starting the season so well he may get off the leash alittle

Dools

Take Watson matey Round 13 Bye is gold for long term gain IMO

guesto

Any thoughts on Gaff and Wines? Looking to offload Ziebell at some stage…

Kenny Powers

Don't know enough about Gaff but Wines should be a solid scorer. Port have a plethora of mid-field options and I think other teams will target Boak, Hartlett, Ebert or Wingard before Wines. He gets plenty of contested possessions, tackles relentlessly and kicks goals. Potential keeper for mine.

Jezza

Mick, I have Rohan and want to get him out, I am tossing up between downgrading to Ambrose or getting in a mid pricer, I have 445k in the bank, and I already have zorko. What should I do?

Captain joc

Upgrade to tmitchell?

wes

no mention of Nathan Jones in this one? under-priced still (on afl fantasy at least – yeah, I'm jumping that ship for next years comp for certain after the crap they've done. He's well under-priced, and even if he only scores a couple 90s in a row, still reasonable value for money there. why not mentioned here? Cos you already had him?

Pat

What to do with dangerfield??

Pat

I also have rohan and mitchell, what trades should I do this week?

Dylan

I would keep Danger he has a good run coming up untill the bye

Marcus J

im hopeful mitchell will come up. not sure how bad the injury is

danger didn't have his best start to the season but hold onto him. he is a champ

there isn't many options to move rohan unless you have spare coin to upgrade. downgrade to ambrose from essendon seems to be the common trade

Bee

Trade rohan, move danger to the fwd line and upgrade rohan to dom tyson in the mids

Dools

Pat Just heard from Luke Hodge that Mitchell is a definite starter for the Freo clash

Pat

Cheers gents much appreciated

Ocker

Hope you are right Dools. You must have inside info eh?

Cheers.

Dools

Source is Triple MMM Footy Avo show here in Melbourne they had Hodey in the studio…That is what he said! Mitchell is good to go this week

Ocker

Cheers Dools, Eased the mind and stop looking at alternative trades. But I will keep options open.

Dylan

Got both Enright and Mitchell in my side so need to swap one out, I was thinking of Brodie Smith, he is playing well just resigned a new contract so his confidence is high. This will enable me to save some cash too. Thoughts?

Sarah

I like it. He's spending a little more time in the middle now that Reilly is back.

Aaron

Enright should be named this week (source: afl app) and Mitchell could be named also so hold onto them both IMO

The Canaries

Both Mitch and Enright will be named

canman1306

I think I will be trading out Enright and Ryder This week but I am not sure who to.
Thinking Swallow and Mumford
Or
Swallow and Hickey/Hampson and Cash
Thoughts?

Dools

I think they (Essendon) reckon Paddy is a good possibility to start!!!!
I have no news on Corey yet from the cattery Maybe hold as Dons play Sunday last game so roll the dice and keep an eye on reports.
Hickey has yet to play real Ruc's So no from me Hampson has good Job Security and I think he has a solid future and his round 2 score carries' over to round 4 CahChing!!!!!!

Goffa

Is Mumford not a real ruck?

Dools

G'day Goffa, Purely my opinion mate, had a great start but against whom????(Pyke and Hickey) He will come to earth soon and then watch the life rafts being deployed from the jump on the ship crew to get me off the Titanic NOW….

Ocker

Canman and Dools, I am not convinced about Hickey for a start. The problem with Hampson is what happens when Maric comes back? Not a long term solution in my book. (Short term fix).

I am no genius but what about Lobbe or Jacobs? Assuming you already have Sandi.

Either that or Ryder the wave with Patrick. or wait for Cox to go down in price and jump on.

Cheers.

Dools

Hi Mate I think Hampson is good till nearly the Bye rounds and Ivan will play lower leauges and rest in forward line on return No match time Hampson Houston Hampson is Go….. "Gold

Darcy

Enright is 50/50 to be good for this week and should only miss one, apparently. Would stay with.
Ryder around 2 weeks according to the media anyway, obviously things can change.

Think Hickey is your best option if you want a keeper, will no.1 all year and we know how consistent big boy was when he did that at the saints (Same role from what i've seen). Hampson wont last the year in your ruck, soon as maric is back in his scores will drop down to 60-70s (Round 7ish)

Swannies

Enright is more then likely to return. Nothing serious 🙂

canman1306

Not really looking for a keeper Just someone who can offer me 80 each week and gain value to byes! Where I will ship him off to one of the big boys.
Sucks Gold Coast Play Saturday or else we could wait with the Enright injury.

Dale

This is sooo frustrating! Can’t make decisions because you have to wait wait and guess.

Kerrigan

Should I upgrade michie to Tyson and have approx $45k left over or should I downgrade dale Thomas and build my bank to $230k? Tyson has a better average than DThomas and will have similar overall value by the time we get to the bye rounds

Is Matt McDonough worth keeping or trade in for ambrose?

Cheers

Adam

Go for Michie to Tyson IMO
Daisy is scoring really well for his price

Kenny Powers

Think if you still have Daisy .. in the words of the community's resident Professor of Diction, Peter Higginbottom – HOLD! As for Michie, it probably depends on how the rest of your midfield looks. Same for MM who won't drop much (if at all) and Ambrose should still be a viable cash-cow rookie even after his first price rise.

Eduardo

Who to trade – M Wright or J Caddy?

Dools

Wright mate BIG BURN at least Caddy will hold Value until round 4

Eduardo

thanks Dools – you don't think Wright will come good with the likes of Danger etc?? Adelaide will improve but not too sure how much Caddy can do within the Cats set up???

Dools

Caddy has not even started this year mate Trade out at your pearl (Pirate type Black!!) Argggh!

Darcy

Get rid of wright. Soon as douglas came into the team he tagged even though he didn't against geelong.

I'm stuck with him unfortunately, but for those who can jump off the wright train.

throttlefinger

Same spot, Eduardo. Leaning toward ditching Wright. Hung bit up forward too much for my liking. As Barron told me, if Matty C or Lyons get in, Wright will stick to that role. So ditch.

Plus the reason my esteemed brother Dools mentioned as well.

Eduardo

thanks guys – i'm hearing wright is just wrong so cut he is!

Shinboner

Having to run with Pittard (of all players) is never a good thing.

throttlefinger

Very true, Shinboner. Rolled the dice on the kid. Didn't pay off. Just hoping Caddy can payoff. Ugh.

Dools

Wines is a solid Keeper mate barring injury, Hmmmmm Gaff never sold on him I went Rossa meself!!!

Dools

Ripping Stuff Mick Thanks for the insights
Cheers

Ronny

Considering trading Mitchell to Robert Murphy. He's had two solid scores so far this year, but I wasn't able to watch either of those Bulldogs games. Anyone see them? How did Murphy look?

brick savy

I've had Lynden Dunn from day dot. Rationale? HIghly effective with the ball and the roos game plan. Was almost going to go grimes cause he's cheaper and a DPP BUT BUT BUT – I didn't go Grimes because I'm scarred – there I said it…………
Anyway when considering supercaoch points system – good ball users don't need much to score well. Dunn only had 16 touches against the eagles yet scored over the ton. THINK ABOUT THAT!

Max

Had him since round 1 as well Brick, and hid 90-odd from round one was was influenced by McDonald's injury, as he had to follow NRoo around for the second quarter. Grime's injury woes scared me off him; and I don't think Grimes will play all 22, whereas Dunn should.

Brad

I had dan cross round 1 then after an average game of 70 (which isn't too bad) I decided to trade him out for Adam treloar and of course it was the wrong decision with them going opposite ways. Treloar going average and cross going big. Will treloar be better in the long run?

Sarah

Don't trade it again or you'll end up going mental trading for last week's points. You've got Treloar now, you've got to stick with him at least til the byes.

Derek

stick with trelor, GWS have some nice games coming up, he will score well.

Brad

What should I do about Michie? Trade danger to jack merret? Lachie hunter? Then Michie to dyson then have 300k in the bank to set up a trade for Matt Thomas next week and a rookie corrective trade?
Or hold off on danger.
Don't know about this plan but trade ablett for mid pricer maybe Thomas then trade Michie for Tyson? Even more cash next week to possible get ablett back in for daisy?

Shinboner

No trading Danger! That's my message to anyone considering the trade.

Dean

You cannot be serious even thinking about trading out Ablett or Dangerfield…. These guys are premiums, you MUST stick with them. To trade out quality players like this just to have cash in the kitty is absolutely STUPID.

DONT DO IT…

James

Thoughts on trading Dane swan to selwood before price change or stick it out?

Brad

I'd say trade with swan not 100% with back problems I think at the moment 🙂

Ocker

James, Do not trade premiums like Swan it will come back to haunt you this week.

Cheers

Cheeseman

Get home from work and catch up up on footy news….yay another premium out, thanks Barlow. No room for corrective trades this week, unless I gamble on both enright and Mitchell only missing possibly 1 week. I wanted to get wright out of my forwards , besides wingard and titch the rest of my forward line is spudding it up big time .

Possible move for me this week,
Barlow out, Mitchell swings into the mids (probably on the pine) swallow into the back line.
Wright out , scared to say maybe zorko in, although my scars are still fresh from last year,

Still leaves me with some issues, like Rohan on the ground, mcdonut JKHon the bench . Mitchell and enright at least spread out now so I can put the better of my rookies on field . But feeling very light in the middle with gaz, rocky, beams, treloar, Tyson , polec, Ellis, dunstan .

Other options just a straight swap, Barlow to pendles or Watson , and 1 of Mitchell /enright ( whoever doesn't get named) to swallow , with no help to my spud forward line until next week.

Ocker

Enright 50-50 to play and according to Dools Mitchell will play against Freo this week.

Cheers

Cheeseman

That's making me feel a lot better, was not looking forward to 3 premiums out this week, especially after last week.

Wattsieesq

With Barlow going down for 4-6 weeks I need a replacement. I'm leaning towards Watson because of my team structures. The only other out there solution would be to bring in Zorko. I think he'll be fine but he's no Jobe. What does the community think?

Wattsie

Ocker

Wattsie, Jobe Watson without doubt. Zorko wont be that price again but neither will his scores with Rockliffe back this week.

Cheers.

throttlefinger

Your final thought summed it up. Think you know the right move, Wattsie.

Wattsieesq

Thanks guys. I was leaning towards Jobe and you've pretty much confirmed it. I'll definitely go with him.

Cheers

Nick

Hi all,
I'm thinking of trading Goldstein for maybe Mummy, thoughts???

Branks

Definitely make that trade. Mummy will be a keeper by season's end and Goldstein's scores are being affected by Currie being in the lineup.

Daniel

But…is Currie only there cos Goldy carrying an injury? Will Currie be dropped when Goldy returns to full fitness?

Ocker

Nick, Don't trade guns and chase points that have already gone you could be wasting a trade at the same time. Mummy has had injury problems as well as tribunal problems in the past.
My 2 cents worth.
I don't have either but I won't trade my Rucks. Unless injury strikes of course.

Cheers

Dale

Goldstein will lose cash mummy will make lots, if mummy gets injured and holdup goes good, trade back. Trade arse off!

David Johnson

RE: Lynden Dunn
His changed role halfway through last season actually skewed his average. His total 2013 average was 82, but he averaged 92 after the BYE. With the added possessions he's accumulating, I can easily see him maintaining his near-100 average for the rest of the season.

Tom

Community — thoughts RE Charlie Dixon? Tough RD1 with concussion spoiling score, then a very hard away trip RD2 v Frem. Trouble is his break even this week. Would love to keep faith but could be costly..

Ocker

Tom, IS HE STILL ALIVE?

JX20

I'm waiting for Charlie to bottom out before pouncing as a DPP (fwd), and possible swap with Thurlow. Sandilands is a keeper, BUT I'm sure he'll rest from time to time and I'll need this trade. Hoping for a Caddy 2 Charlie swap and maybe throw in a few dollars.
Charlie has copped a heavy dew/concussion and then a monsoon the next week.
Suns games at home from now are earlier alleviating the dew and a fast track will help him. My 2 bobs for what it's worth.

James

Hi Mick,

Should I trade Jimmy Webster or Rhyce Shaw? Which downgrade option is best in defense? Will Langford?

Appreciate the help

Ocker

James, Webster may play this week http://www.afl.com.au/news/2014-04-01/in-the-mix-round-t...
I can see more upside in Webster than Shaw = Trade Shaw in my opinion.

Defense rookies depends on who you already have?

Cheers.

James

Already have McDonald, Georgiou and Langdon.

Ocker

James, Yes I would go langford

Good Luck mate..

Dean

If you can try go for someone like Steven May $315,700 with a Average of 110 and a B/E of -44 and projected to increase $60,000 in round 3
Or someone like Mathew Jaenech $298,100 with a Average of 109 and a B/E of -52 and projected to increase $58,000 in round 3

If you cannot afford any of the above two players then I would go for Jack Frost $230,300 with a average of 72 and a B/E of -16 and projected to increase $36,000 in round 3

Hope this helps mate.

Gilly

I have Rohan, JKH and McDonough. If Rohan plays this week thinking of turning McDonough into Ambrose. Any thoughts?

Goffa

I have same fwd rookies gilly….thinking the same trade, unless McDonough comes back in for the tiges….would even start Ambrose on the field over Rohan

Fabian

Sounds like a good trade. I'm not a bombers man but is there any risk in him being dropped or getting the vest? I know they have Gleeson and Merret as other young kids but I'd assume they'd make way for Winderlich, Melksham and Jetta.

Gilly

Thanks guys, I am not sure why I am surprised but Gary Rohan has been disappointing. I think Ambrose js is ok being a bit older than the rookies might help.

Hopefully with what he has shown in the first two rounds keeps him in the team and away from the vest.

All the best

Jim

What do you reckon about swan? Seems to have a new role up forward.

Keep or trade?

Ocker

Do not waste a trade, He will perform shortly Reports say he will be his old self this week.

Cheers.

tye

Iv had it with h.Shaw anyone have any thoughts on jaensch and dempster? Or should I go Langdon to get the quick cash grab

Swans2012

Gotta say I’m surprised at the lack of love for Matt Thomas, no matter which way you look at it going to thump up in value this week and next and wouldn’t be surprised to see him average 90-100 odd with the hard up tackling contested supercoacg relevant footy he plays, WONT get a tag like Dom Tyson with the likes of lids and couch in the team, hard body. I dunno just seems like an easy 200 k over the next five weeks to me. I’m Liam shiels to m Thomas and michie to dom this week. Reckon shiels will still average around 90 but m Thomas is 80k cheaper and will peak in price MUCH faster making the trade worthwhile at least IMHO anyway! That’s my 3 dollars worth anyway… Thoughts?

Daniel

I see Tyson and Thomas as similar….but Tyson cheaper and have to ask, is Thomas a keeper? If both are stepping stones to a premium, then I'd go Tyson.

Swans2012

Why not both? Two stepping stones that provide good (I'm not expecting premium) scoring in the meantime. For me it's a no brainier in keeping Dunstan and Ellis off the field

brick savy

Barlow reported as 2 weeks on 9 news just then. I'm holding for a few weeks. SIDEWAYS TRADES KILL!

JX20

ABC are saying 4-6 weeks!!

Wattsieesq

Freo club website says 4-6 weeks as well

Ocker

brick. You maybe getting confused with Fyfe who got 2 weeks at the tribunal.

Cheers.

Tom

Thoughts on chapman?

wes

IMO Chappy is worth keeping. Essendon have most possessions per game (according to above article), and his role is seeing him rake them in. Not a cash cow, but a keeper for mine. Better value at the moment than Dangerfield is

Josh

hey guys, i have shannon hurn in my defence but have cover and i've traded JKH to ambrose for more $ generation, however i don't have zorko so i was wondering whether it would be best to trade hurn first and miss on zorko or trade out buddy for zorko and hold on hurn for price drops on some players next week?

Wattsieesq

Depends where you need the help the most. Is your defence bad or is your fwd line? If they are the same, then Buddy's BE is lower than Hurn's so trade Hurn out as he's more than likely to fall more. From my point of view unless there is an injury, it's a bit early to be getting rid of your premiums.

Kenny Powers

Was looking to hold Hurn myself Josh. His price wont change and almost every top priced defender is due to fall in price over the coming fortnight. And probably depends on whether you want to in Swallow if you don't have him. Taking a chance on an extra on-field rookie in defense and relying on the strength on the other lines to get the job done this week. Perhaps lots of wet weather footy for Buddy this season on a small home ground .. Zorko looks solid with all the points Mick made being positives.

Hazey

I’m not thinking…

Out – Ziebs + Rohan
In – Tyson + Zorko

Thoughts?

Daniel

Tyson and Ambrose…Zorko just as likely to get a 50. Avoid the sideways trades early, cash up now.

Tom

wright the burn man gone, but to get the money do i do daisy for tyson, or mcdonut to ambrose?

Tom

I mean get the money for zorko

Fabian

Daisy is at least playing where as McDonut won't get much of a game anytime soon. would prob trade out Mcdonut.

Bray

Confirmed earlier Barlow out for 4-6 weeks, any recommended replacements.?

My midfield is currently. Pendls, Ablet, Barlow*, Cotchin, Murphy, Tyson, Dale Thomas, Dunstan, and Ellis and Matty crouch on the bench. Who do I get to replace Barlow.?

Thanks guys

Ocker

Bray, Jobe Watson. Top 8 midfielder if you can afford him.

Cheers.

Fabian

Jobe or Joel Selwood look set for top 8 player status. r

Ocker

Bray, I notice you don't have much cash generation in the midfield. Downgrade Barlow to Jared Polec and pocket some cash to upgrade other lines.

Cheers

Daniel

Beams for Barlow….or Polec and cash.

David Robinson

Beams and save 100k

Bray

So guys, it’s down to Beams or Polec.?

Wattsieesq

Depending if you are going for league or rank. Rank = Polec. League = Beams

Gold Rush

if you go Beams , that's another R8 Bye Mid. I would go a Watson (or similar that is not a R8 bye candidate)

Daniel

Personally I'd try and get both, but if only one, then I'd go Polec. Port are a super fit running team.

Captain joc

Barlow+crouch to beams + polec
You need to have polec in your side trust me

Bray

Guy I went Barlow to Polec, and traded Rohan up for Zorko as my fowarda were pretty weak, thoughts.?

Ocker

Sounds good to me mate

Good Luck
Cheers.

Captain joc

Lock it in
Beams is just gonna have to be the one that got away from you

Brendan

Gday community,
I have one trade left for this round and i have $63000 left in bank and im not sure what would be better to do.
Trade Mathew Wright out for someone like a bruest or dahlhaus
or Trade Garry Rohan out for Ambrose
What do you guys reckon? Thanks

canman1306

Grab Zorko if you don't have him as Mick said he won't be this Price again

Ocker

Brendan, I would consider Rohan out for Ambrose a good corrective trade for this week.

Cheers.

Wattsieesq

This time of year is for rookie corrections.

Wattsie

Brendan

thanks guys, ill trade rohan to ambrose as i already have zorko in my team

Branks

What is the community's opinion on Lachlan Hunter?

wes

I'd keep Hunter 1 more game. wbd vs tigers this round. not a huge risk… might give you a little more cash to trade off next week.

Callum

G'day Mick, great article once more. Need the communities and your help as I have a big dilemma. I have a couple options that I can do and I don't know what is best.

1.
Ryder~Hickey
Higgins~Zorko
Leaves: 52.6k

2.
Ryder~Mumford
Rohan~Ambrose
Leaves:136.3k

3.
Ryder~Hickey
Rohan~ Someone below 422k (Only one I would honestly consider would be Hunter, 3k off Dahlhaus sadly)
Leaves:136.7k if I was to get hunter

Still not sold on Hickey yet because a)That injury could be a nagging one that hinders his performance each week and b) His upcoming run faces very good ruckmen. Also not sold on Hunter yet, but I am sold on big Mummy. Only reason I am not considering getting in Mummy is to get Zorko. Also I am happy to trade Higgins as I picked him to make money, fast, but that's not going to happen at his current average.

Thanks

Eefto

I think the second option mate. Mumford is a strong body and will monster mostly all opposition rucks. Hickey did great against Mumford on the weekend but was smashed in the hitouts. His scores will fluctuate massively and I think going with Mumford is a lot safer.

Also, OUT Rohan IN Ambrose is good as well. Ambrose displayed football charisma that Bomber Thompson loves and I can see him in the side for a few rounds yet. Rohan is underperforming and it leaves a large sum in your WARCHEST!

Daniel

2

Shinboner

Great tight-arse options, Mick! Did have a keen eye on Dunn in the preseason, but didn't have the balls to go with him, thinking he'd be NAB fool's gold. Would be glad to see him prove me wrong.

Will Eefto

Hey Mick, do you think its a good idea to do a swap from Aish to Tyson as I see Aish only averaging around the 70mark this year and, as you said, Tyson up around 90??
Or do you think just stick with the rookies you selected and back them in?

Cheers!

Daniel

Round 2 is for jumping on the rookies you missed. Tyson for sure!

Ocker

Will, Is there another way to get Tyson other than a money making rookie? Cash generation but maybe using a sideways trade for nothing.

Captain joc

What other Mids do you have?

Ronny

I'm in the same boat. I really want to get Tyson but the only rookie I could offload to get him would probably be Aish (my other mid rookies are Polec, Dunstan, Ellis and McDonald).

Daniel

Should I go Goldy -> Mummy and Rohan -> Ambrose OR Webster -> Georgiou and the Rohan -> Ambrose?

Dan

Webster rohan combo

throttlefinger

Superb TAT, Mick! No better way to start my day.

Have Dunn and Tyson. Have not let me down. Need to consider if giving Wright a second chance is worth it at the expense of missing out on Zorko? Probably not, huh?

Reading injury report and both Ryder and Webster are "test". Don't know if there's one word that make my taint cringe more…

canman1306

Dunn definitely a great Option with Roos new gamestyle.
Have you decided who to trade Ryder to?

throttlefinger

Hey Canman. No decision on Ryder. He may play so I may keep him. Wait until later to offload him for NicNat. Or whomever looks tastiest.

Hickey has a bum wheel. Fear we've seen his best. Like Hampson but Maric will be returning in 2-3 weeks, so that's just a short term fix. Mummy is the only strong move but for whatever reason it is not sitting well. May be ok come Friday.

Right now I'm leaning on keeping him. Idiotic?

canman1306

Hmm Not sure What to do with him But I Think I will definitely Trade him wether to downgrade or Sideways is the question.
I think Downgrading is the Option and Cashing up to Get rid of Rohan F6

Still haven't decided whether to keep Enright or Move him onto Swallow.

throttlefinger

Definitely downgrade Ryder if you have other fixes to make. I'm just trying to figure out if I want to make 2 trades that go with the herd (i.e. Mummy and Zorko).

Wait on Enright. He may play this week. Unless your gut feels that injury will linger and Swallow will continue his fantastic play, don't move.

canman1306

I think If he is named he will be a late out.
Yeah More Problems around the Ground Like having Rohan sitting at F6.
But my Defensive line is Pretty solid Same as My Mids. Starting with Pendles Ablett Watson has payed off so far.

I can see Mumford and Zorko getting 50 each this week or 150 each.

throttlefinger

That's the concern.

Late game so either he's in or not. Given their ruck situation, don't think they'll select if remote chance not to play. Just don't have a ton of confidence in any of the rucks ATM.

Dunno what I'll do. Talk later, Canman.

General Mac

Throttle, hats off to you for your global time issues….as if there's not enough in SC alone mate. Fox Sports just heard Ryder rule himself out for this week, walking gingerly so next week may be in doubt too from the footage (as ankle health extra important to a ruckman). Apparently Bomber was qouted as saying Thurlow not up to being elevated yet so looks like weight is on Daniher and Carlisle's shoulders….Go the blueboys! Who to bring in is the other piece of puzzle now.

throttlefinger

Hey General Mac. Yeah, read that before I went to bed last night. Was figuring on swapping him for Mummy anyhow. Just the sensible play. Especially for the reason you stated…need your springs as a ruck.

Captain joc

What about mike pyke?
Scores of 92 and 110

JOE RICHARDS

Gday Mick,
Out Shannon Hurn in David Swallow
Out Chris Masten in Don tyson
Thoughts
cheers mate

BCHawks

I would do both those trades they look like good options.

wes

agreed – both look good options to me too
watching for beau waters to come back soon though too…

rooboy

hi guys what do you think please:

out r shaw
in d swallow

out g rohan
in p ambrose

or

out franklin
in zorko

thankyou

Daniel

Absolutely the first one.

Ocker

rooboy, Option 1 for mine.

Cheers.