The Machine takes a small hit.
While still keeping just ahead in the betting, the Sportsbet line has overtaken The Machine line with a 2.4 point lead per game. Big wins from The Eagles and Essendon were not forecasted by The Machine, however, we are in this for the long haul.
Special credit must go to the Sportsbet line in the Hawks V Brisbane line – impressive forecasting.
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Output statistics
| Round 1 (Week 2) | Winner | Margin | Machine Error | Sportsbet Error |
| Cats V Adelaide | Geelong | 38 | 25 | 16.5 |
| North V Essendon | Essendon | 39 | 60 | 45.5 |
| Hawks V Brisbane | Hawks | 48 | 11 | 0.5 |
| Saints V Demons | Saints | 17 | 10 | 28.5 |
| WCE V Bulldogs | WCE | 65 | 51 | 29.5 |
| Average Game Error | 31.4 | 24.1 |
And the Week 1 Summary Table
| Ave. Game Error | Bet Record | |||||
| The Machine | Sporstbet | No. Bets | Wins | Profit/Loss | Bank (Starting with $100) | |
| Rd 1 (week 1) | 50.5 | 53 | 3 | 2 | $4.20 | $104.20 |
| Rd 1 (week 2) | 31.4 | 24.1 | 2 | 1 | -$0.40 | $103.80 |
| 40.95 | 38.55 | 5 | 3 | $3.80 | $103.80 | |
And now to this week’s bets
| Round 2 | Formulated Winner | Formulated Margin | Sportsbet Line | Diff. | BET | |
| 1 | Tigers V Blues | Tigers | 24 | 8.5 | 15.5 | $5 TIGERS at line |
| 2 | Ess. V Hawks | Hawks | 12 | 17.5 | 5.5 | No bet |
| 3 | Saints V GWS | Saints | 13 | -1.5(GWS fav. To win) | 14.5 | $5 SAINTS at line |
| 4 | Port V Adelaide | Adelaide | 8 | -6.5(Port fav. To win) | 14.5 | $5 CROWS at line |
| 5 | Freo V G.Coast | Freo | 26 | 39.5 | 13.5 | $5 GCS at line |
| 6 | Sydney V C.Wood | Sydney | 38 | 16.5 | 21.5 | $5 SWANS at line |
| 7 | Bris. V Geelong | Geelong | 16 | 24.5 | 8.5 | No bet |
| 8 | Demons V WCE | WCE | 48 | 41.5 | 6.5 | No bet |
| 9 | Dogs V North | Dogs | 6 | -18.5(NTH fav. To win) | 24.5 | $5 DOGS at line |
As you can see, The Machine deviates from the Sportsbet line by greater than 12 points in six of the nine games this week. I will be placing six simple $5 line bets in accordance with my system(click here to see my system).
The Gold Coast line concerns me, as does the Western Bulldogs result, however, I will stick to my system and be willing these teams to make their lines.
Have a good weekend.
Regards,
Peter Higginbotham
27 Comments
GarglesnarfFC · 27/03/2014 at 10:21
Interesting results Higgo. I am liking the Tigers at the line this week, might have a go at that one.
Jesse Levesque · 27/03/2014 at 11:30
im gay lol
GeneralSoreness · 27/03/2014 at 14:24
A gain is a gain Higgo and I share your concerns re Doggies and Suns, lets hope the machine knows what it is doing.
K'noath · 27/03/2014 at 14:29
Nice multi on those lines for a fiver too.
Liam · 27/03/2014 at 15:39
This weeks multi – Richmond 1-39 ($2.25) into Essendon with 28.5 point start ($1.50) into Port to win ($1.68) into Swan/Pies total under 173 points ($1.88).. This will nab you juicy odds of $10.65!
Enjoy
shane · 29/03/2014 at 23:23
well arent you a smarty pants!
i wish i had of read this 2 days ago
liam · 30/03/2014 at 15:37
I’ll put one up each week Shane and hopefully we can get some value!
Cheeseman · 27/03/2014 at 22:33
Higgo, do you allow for sports bets fluctuations on line margins ? I backed you in tonight with a bet on the line, which when I put it on was out to 11.5, and thank dusty they hit it with 3 seconds to go,lol. But obviously with some of the closer predictions from your spreadsheet , and the lines fluctuating before kickoff, some off these predicted outcomes would change your likelihood of placing the bet yeah?
sputnik · 28/03/2014 at 01:28
Im going Mumford into TMitch into Lecras in SC $1 @ 90-1
sputnik · 30/03/2014 at 00:13
so far ive got Mumford and TMitch- just nee Lecras to win and thats $90 from $1. Good luck to me!
GarglesnarfFC · 29/03/2014 at 07:45
I am seeing the Sun for the first time in a week. It's an omen, back the Suns at $8.00.
Mick · 29/03/2014 at 10:59
Hi Higgo, what do you think about sweet spot lines TAB. Last night Dons +6.5, Hawks ÷41.5 saluted. Just. At 1.75 buying the points buys a greater margin of error?
guesto · 30/03/2014 at 01:13
Machine looks a little skewed Higg but early days yet.
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sputnik · 30/03/2014 at 09:46
I put $1 on Mumford to win his SC group @ $4.50 = win
Put the $4.50 into TMitchell @ $5 to win $22.50 = win
put $22.50 for Cox to win his group @ $6 = $135
Cox to beat Selwood, Jones, Rosa, Priddis, Vince, Grimes and Watts.
I will find out this arvo if cox is a win!!!!!
Ryan · 01/04/2014 at 19:30
Hey Higg, what are your thoughts on whether an accurate form line can be acheived before round 5ish? And does this effect not only the machines predictions but also sportsbets line?
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