Higgo’s Line Betting Machine – Week 2
The Machine takes a small hit.
While still keeping just ahead in the betting, the Sportsbet line has overtaken The Machine line with a 2.4 point lead per game. Big wins from The Eagles and Essendon were not forecasted by The Machine, however, we are in this for the long haul.
Special credit must go to the Sportsbet line in the Hawks V Brisbane line – impressive forecasting.
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Output statistics
| Round 1 (Week 2) | Winner | Margin | Machine Error | Sportsbet Error |
| Cats V Adelaide | Geelong | 38 | 25 | 16.5 |
| North V Essendon | Essendon | 39 | 60 | 45.5 |
| Hawks V Brisbane | Hawks | 48 | 11 | 0.5 |
| Saints V Demons | Saints | 17 | 10 | 28.5 |
| WCE V Bulldogs | WCE | 65 | 51 | 29.5 |
| Average Game Error | 31.4 | 24.1 |
And the Week 1 Summary Table
| Ave. Game Error | Bet Record | |||||
| The Machine | Sporstbet | No. Bets | Wins | Profit/Loss | Bank (Starting with $100) | |
| Rd 1 (week 1) | 50.5 | 53 | 3 | 2 | $4.20 | $104.20 |
| Rd 1 (week 2) | 31.4 | 24.1 | 2 | 1 | -$0.40 | $103.80 |
| 40.95 | 38.55 | 5 | 3 | $3.80 | $103.80 | |
And now to this week’s bets
| Round 2 | Formulated Winner | Formulated Margin | Sportsbet Line | Diff. | BET | |
| 1 | Tigers V Blues | Tigers | 24 | 8.5 | 15.5 | $5 TIGERS at line |
| 2 | Ess. V Hawks | Hawks | 12 | 17.5 | 5.5 | No bet |
| 3 | Saints V GWS | Saints | 13 | -1.5(GWS fav. To win) | 14.5 | $5 SAINTS at line |
| 4 | Port V Adelaide | Adelaide | 8 | -6.5(Port fav. To win) | 14.5 | $5 CROWS at line |
| 5 | Freo V G.Coast | Freo | 26 | 39.5 | 13.5 | $5 GCS at line |
| 6 | Sydney V C.Wood | Sydney | 38 | 16.5 | 21.5 | $5 SWANS at line |
| 7 | Bris. V Geelong | Geelong | 16 | 24.5 | 8.5 | No bet |
| 8 | Demons V WCE | WCE | 48 | 41.5 | 6.5 | No bet |
| 9 | Dogs V North | Dogs | 6 | -18.5(NTH fav. To win) | 24.5 | $5 DOGS at line |
As you can see, The Machine deviates from the Sportsbet line by greater than 12 points in six of the nine games this week. I will be placing six simple $5 line bets in accordance with my system(click here to see my system).
The Gold Coast line concerns me, as does the Western Bulldogs result, however, I will stick to my system and be willing these teams to make their lines.
Have a good weekend.
Regards,
Peter Higginbotham
Interesting results Higgo. I am liking the Tigers at the line this week, might have a go at that one.
im gay lol
A gain is a gain Higgo and I share your concerns re Doggies and Suns, lets hope the machine knows what it is doing.
Nice multi on those lines for a fiver too.
This weeks multi – Richmond 1-39 ($2.25) into Essendon with 28.5 point start ($1.50) into Port to win ($1.68) into Swan/Pies total under 173 points ($1.88).. This will nab you juicy odds of $10.65!
Enjoy
well arent you a smarty pants!
i wish i had of read this 2 days ago
I’ll put one up each week Shane and hopefully we can get some value!
Higgo, do you allow for sports bets fluctuations on line margins ? I backed you in tonight with a bet on the line, which when I put it on was out to 11.5, and thank dusty they hit it with 3 seconds to go,lol. But obviously with some of the closer predictions from your spreadsheet , and the lines fluctuating before kickoff, some off these predicted outcomes would change your likelihood of placing the bet yeah?
Im going Mumford into TMitch into Lecras in SC $1 @ 90-1
so far ive got Mumford and TMitch- just nee Lecras to win and thats $90 from $1. Good luck to me!
I am seeing the Sun for the first time in a week. It's an omen, back the Suns at $8.00.
Hi Higgo, what do you think about sweet spot lines TAB. Last night Dons +6.5, Hawks ÷41.5 saluted. Just. At 1.75 buying the points buys a greater margin of error?
Machine looks a little skewed Higg but early days yet.
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I put $1 on Mumford to win his SC group @ $4.50 = win
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I will find out this arvo if cox is a win!!!!!
Hey Higg, what are your thoughts on whether an accurate form line can be acheived before round 5ish? And does this effect not only the machines predictions but also sportsbets line?
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