Tight Arse Tuesday, Round 2
Hello again community and welcome to the first good and proper TAT (Tight Arse Tuesday) of the new season.
Oh how good is it that round 1 is finally behind us so we can take stock of what we have locked in, access the damage (if any) of some of our selections, and most importantly decide if we need to make any trades.
I used to be along the line of thinking that you do not trade after round one, but that was back in the day when we were limited to just 20 trades in a year. As we all know the rules have changed and we now have 30 trades for the year, and with such a large number, corrective trades early are now an important aspect of this game.
However this doesn’t mean we should just trade for the sake of trading and before I analysis some potential value pick-ups, I think it’s important to stress what warrants a trade and what doesn’t.
The biggest mistake I have seen is what I have called “Outside Trading”. It is effectively a sideways trade where the main motivations for trading come from factors external to your actual team. You trade in a player that you feel you’ve missed out on because they had a really big round 1 score, for somebody in your team that just happens to be in the same price bracket (and they may or may not have had a bad round 1 score).
For example trading in Bartel in the defense for someone like Mitchel or McVeigh based solely on the perceived “need” to get Bartel in and not based on what you have actually selected in your backline. Yes Bartelproved to be a great round 1 selection but he doesn’t warrant a trade from Mitchel or McVeigh just because you didn’t select him to start with. You selected Mitchel and McVeigh for good reason and over the course of 23 rounds the chances are they will still average what you expected from them in the first place.
The type of trading we should all be doing after round one is what I call “Internal Trading”. This is where the motivation for the trade comes from internal factors within your own team. These are injuries, rookies not playing, suspensions and lastly under performing players.
Now the first few examples are easy to spot so I don’t have to go into much detail there. However accessing an under performing player based on one game is quite difficult and a lot of analysing should be performed before you hit the trade button. Last thing you want to do is trade out a player this week for him to pump out great scores over the coming rounds. When assessing under performing players you really need to analysis their game from round 1 and ask yourself has anything changed in their game from when you selected them in the first place? Sometimes players just have bad games.
Tom Liberatore only scored 79pts but he still played all game in the midfield, got 27 touches, 6 clearances and laid 3 tackles. His low score wasn’t got to do with anything changing with his game. He just butchered the ball under heavy pressure from a dominate West Coast side, in a game where his side were well beaten. There will be weeks where his side will dominate and he will score 140+, thus averaging out his score to the 110 we all expect from him. This is a perfect example of a player you have to keep if you have selected him in your side.
For the 20% of coaches who selected Franklin to start with, I’m sure many are weighing up if they need to trade him or not. Now I don’t like Franklin as a selection but for those of you who picked him, you did pick him for a reason and what you have got to ask yourself is, has any of those reasons changed based on one game? You would have known that Franklin was going to be inconsistent and is just as likely to get 50 points as he is to get 150 points. You picked him because he is capable of massive scores and the perceived notion that he would average over 100 once again this year. You have got to ask yourself has anything changed in just one game? Personally I don’t think it has but then I also thought he wouldn’t average over 100 this year and that’s why I didn’t pick him. If you picked Franklin as a keeper then I think you’ve got to stick with him, but its one rollercoaster ride I’m glad I didn’t get on.
Now for the 43% of coaches (myself included) that selected Dale Thomas we have to ask ourselves all the same questions. Has anything changed? For me personally things have changed. I went into this year with a midprice strategy with an aggressive trading plan that if successful would see me get to full premium in round 11. I was banking on Dale Thomas averaging 90 to the byes and been able to turn him into a premium keeper in round 9. All my analysis suggested that Dale would quite easily average 90 and would appreciate to 450k come round 9. Now it was obvious from watching Dale against Port that he was very under done and he lacked the match fitness to run the game out in the second half. I still think Dasiy will go on and average 90 for the year but now I’m worried he will be a slow burner and won’t start to produce 100+ scores until the second half of the year. As my intention is to have him moved on by the byes anyway these scores will be little good to me. It is for that reason that I am considering making a corrective trade for Dale Thomas and if I feel there is anyone out there who can fulfill this role within my team then I might just do it this week.
That leads me nicely into what you are all here for, “Tight Arse Options” . This week I’m going to look at some corrective trades options that could come from the biggest surprise package of round one, the GWS Gaints. There are many things to consider so let’s jump right in there.
Are GWS the real deal?
The Giants only won a single game in 2013 and were easily the worst or second worst (Melbourne) team in all of the stat categories that mattered. To come out and not only beat Sydney, an early premiership contender but do so quite comfortably was a shock to many in the footballing world. So the big question remains was this just a flash in the pan or are GWS the real deal. Below is a table showing GWS’s average stats from 2013 compared to their first round stats against Sydney.
Yes there is a lot of green in the differential column but how can we gauge where GWS are at from just one game? A game in which the weather can attribute to high tackle counts, contested possessions, hit outs and one percenters, all the stats where GWS have their highest increases.
If only there was another expansion club who has been in the competition for one extra year so we could see how they developed in their third year! Oh wait……
The table above shows the team stats for both GWS and GCS from their 3 and 2 years respectively in the competition. What you may or may not find amazing is that both their stats for the same year are quite similar. Both teams drop off in their second year, which can be contributed to and/or prove the theory of second years blues. Then what we should all get excited about is that Gold Coast improved dramatically in year 3. The fact that both their stats and trends are so similar over their first two years I don’t see why we can’t assume that GWS will improve drastically in their third year too. If round one is anything to go by then we may already have proof that they will.
The table above shows the progress of the players that have been with Gold Coast for the full three years. None of McKenzie, Bennell, Prestia or Dixon featured in Gold Coasts top 10 ranked Supercoach players in their first year. In their 3rd year they all made it up to the top 7 in their rankings with the lowest average coming in at 88.5 Supercoach points per round.
The table above shows the progress of the GWS players over their first two years. Callan Ward has been their best Supercoach player to date. He’s no Gary Ablett Jnr but then he wasn’t brought in as the finished article and was very much still in the developing stage. I expect Callan Ward will develop further again this year and improve on his average from last year in doing so. He is still regarded as the main man and I’d expect opposition teams would put the most work into limiting his impact on the game, especially in the early part of the year.
It’s the other guys below him that I have highlighted that interest me more. These are the guys that I expect will replicate what Gold Coast Suns 3rd year players achieved last year, and improve on their averages in 2014. Let’s start at the bottom and work our way up.
Round 1 Score 77
Current Price $392,000
Priced to Average 73
Jeremy didn’t exactly go bang in round 1 but there are certain reasons for that too. The game was won in the last quarter and it was won out of the midfield and at the stoppages. The points flowed accordingly to the midfielders who influenced, (We’ll get to them later).
I’ve included Jeremy Cameron on this list because I believe we can draw comparisons between his development and that of Charlie Dixon at the Gold Coast. Dixon is now Gold Coasts number one key forward and with the development of the players in the Gold Coast’s midfield the supply into the forward 50 gave Dixon more opportunities to kick goals and score more supercoach points. Dixon’s disposal count remained the same from 2012 to 2013 but he took more marks inside 50 (up 0.3 a game) and kicked more goals (up 1.2 a game).
As I expect to see a similar improvement in the Gaints midfield this year I can also see Cameron having more opportunities to kick goals this year too. Also with the fit again Patton providing the target at full forward it should allow the more agile Cameron to push up the ground and collect more possessions, playing more like a Nick Reiwolt or Rarad Roughead. Last year Cameron averaged 10 disposals and 3 goals a game. This year I’d expect him to average up on 15 disposals and 3.5 goals a game. (Will come very close to a Colman medal). He kicked four against Sydney last week but didn’t manage to find the pill that much, with 9 disposals but I think that will come in the games not affected by the wet weather.
The Mad Irishman’s Verdict
2013 Predicted Status: Strong Midpricer
Predicted Average from here on out: 89-93pts
Average to the Byes from here: 98-102pts
Probably not a player I’d be rushing out to get in round 2 but one I’d have locked into my watchlist that could be used if selections like Higgins and Caddy turn sour in a few weeks’ time. If you already selected him then I’d be pretty happy even if he didn’t produce a monster score in round 1.
Round 1 Score 96
Current Price $394,600
Priced to Average 73
Toby was drafted with pick 11 in the 2011 national draft as one of the 11 first round draft picks the Giants had in 2011. He was selected as a midfielder and has been part of the midfield group down at the Giants ever since. He was arguably their best young player in his debut season and he would go on to average 94 Supercoach points in his first year.
Last year proved to be a little more difficult for Toby and like many young kids suffered a little of the second year blues dropping off in almost all of the major stat categories. The table below shows his stats over the first couple of years and form his first game this year against the Swans.
I don’t think we shouldn’t get too carried away from his stats against Sydney, as I did say above the conditions did make it a midfielders game, with more stoppage and thus more contested possessions, tackles and clearances. However I expect to see a vast improvement on his stats from 2013, more in line with what he had in 2012.
The dynamic of the midfield group has changed slightly on last year as the Giants off loaded some of their many midfielders (Dyson going to Melbourne and Adams going to Collingwood). This will free up more time for Tody to play in the midfield this year and give him and the remaining midfield group time to gel and nail down their roles for the team. Toby can play both an inside and outside role but I’d expect him to play more on the outside as the Gaints have Ward, Trelour and Sheil as their main inside players. Expect him to play half forward, on the wing and rotated through the middle and expect him to increase his numbers back to 2012 levels.
The Mad Irishman’s Verdict
2014 Predicted Status: Strong Midpricer
Predicted Average from here on out: 92-97pts
Predicted Average to the byes: 96-101pts
Depending on your team’s structure and trading plans Green could be a great midprice option if you have really mucked up your starting selections. If you are happy to move him on during or after the bye he should score well above his starting price to be worth the selection. However he is by no means a keeper and with no forward or backline eligibility it might be hard to justify a trade now, only to move him on again later. That however if up to you to decide. If you are one of the 1,893 of coaches who did select Green then I’d be a very happy coach.
Round 1 Score 108
Current Price $399,400
Priced to Average 71.4
Stephen was drafted with pick 2 in the 2011 national draft as one of the 11 first round draft picks the Giants had in 2011. He was selected as a midfielder and has been part of the midfield group down at the Giants ever since..
There hasn’t been all that much hype around this top 2 draftee as he really hasn’t shown is full capability just yet. Both years to date have been serviceable with his second year stats slightly behind that of what he produced in his first year. The table below shows his stats over the first couple of years and form his first game this year against the Swans.
Stephen is very much and outside as can be seen by the fact that over 65% of his possessions are uncontested. The biggest area that needs improvement would have to be his disposal efficiency and despite scoring so well against Sydney this was still well down at just 37%. It’s a stat I would worry about but like I said above the dynamic has changed and Stephen is now very much a part of the Giants best 22 and should get consistent opportunities to play off the wing in 2014.
He did manage 27 touches and if the inside battle continues to be won by Ward, Trelour and co then he should be first on hand to receive the ball from the bottom of the packs. Wouldn’t be surprised if he averages 24+ possessions and am backing will improve his disposal efficiency up to the 65-70% range by the seasons end.
The Mad Irishman’s Verdict
2014 Predicted Status: Strong Midpricer
Predicted Average from here on out: 88-92pts
Predicted Average to the byes: 90-95pts
Much the same as Green above it will very much depend on your structures and it may be very hard to justify a trade now, only to move him on again later. If I was going to pick between the two I would probably go Green over Coniglio as Green will offer just a little more on the inside. If you are one of the 1,446 of coaches who did select Coniglio, again I’d be a very happy coach.
Round 1 Score 41
Current Price $407,400
Priced to Average 75.5
Dylan Shiel was in and out of my preseason team so when he started as the sub against Sydney I was very surprised. I don’t see that happening every week and don’t be surprised to see Dylan feature in “Tight Arse Tuesday” in a few weeks’ time.
For now, sit tight and whack him on the watchlist.
Round 1 Score 154
Current Price $469,500
Priced to Average 87
Ok before we go any further, its very important to remember that for all of us who don’t have Treloar those 154 points he scored in round 1 are gone and by bringing him in now we won’t get to touch any of them. What we should be asking ourselves is what is he likely to score in the remaining games this season.
As I’ve stated numerous times now, the game against the Swans was made for midfielders to score points due to the conditions. Treloar had 18 contested possessions, 8 clearances and 8 tackles. He won’t produce those numbers every week. Lets take a look at his stats over his first two years.
Adam was actually one of the few Giants players to improve on his first year stats in 2013. He found more of the ball, improved on his contested numbers, tackles count and endurance, playing more time on ground.
His numbers are very much in line with what we have come to expect from players who are about to break out and the fact that he was named in the centre and played the majority of the game there against the Swans I believe he will get every opportunity to become a break out player this year.
I’d expect to see him average 26+ disposals a game, increase is contested numbers to 12+ a game, clearances to 4.5+ a game and tackle count to 4.5+ a game. That been said he should easily average 105+ for the year.
The Mad Irishman’s Verdict
2014 Predicted Status: Premium
Predicted Average from here on out: 102-106pts
Predicted Average to the byes 110-114pts
If you have some extra cash in your back and are sure the current midprice option (Savage or Thomas) you have selected in your midfield is a dud I’m be confident it pulling the tiger and bringing in Treloar. However don’t get too carried away with your expectations, he will not score 150+ on a regular basis and will give you a few sub-par scores along the way. I personally will most likely have another look at him this week and may very well get him in next.
Shane Mumford – (Pick of the Week)
Round 1 Score 132
Current Price $496,000
Priced to Average 92
Before I call it for today I just thought I’d add a final segment to Tight Arse Tuesday, labelled “Pick of the Week”
Sticking with the GWS boys I have made Shane Mumford my round 2 pick of the week. If any of you are unhappy with your first choice rucks (Minson, Goldstien, Naitanui or even Ryder) then don’t be afraid to switch them out for Shane Mumford.
I have seen enough from Mumford’s performance against Pyke last week to confidently predict Mumford will feature in the top 5 averaging ruckmen for the year. He is as fit now as I have ever seen the big man and he dominated against the player Sydney thought was the better ruck going forward. What makes this trade even more tempting is looking at GWS’s draw until the byes. Get Mumford in now and your Ruck department with him and Sandilands should get off to a very fast start.
St Kilda (Hickey), Melbourne (Spencer), Western Bulldogs (Minson), Adelaide (Jacobs), Gold Coast (Nichols) and West Coast (Cox/Naitanui). Only West Coast and maybe the Doggies should provide any problems for Mumford and I’d expect him to dominate in the rest.
The Mad Irishman’s Verdict
2014 Predicted Status: Elite
Predicted Average from here on out: 109-113pts
Predicted Average to the byes 115-119pts
Welcome to the Mayhem!
Next week I will be looking at another club that should offer up some early corrective trade bargains, Melbourne Demons.
Stay tuned ….
Mick the Mad Irishman
Tune into the fun earlier this week: