While building The Higginator, an idea so brilliant and obvious hit me that I was forced into action.
I CAN USE EACH TEAM’S WEEKLY SUPERCOACH DATA AS A MEANS OF PUTTING A NUMERIC VALUE ON THEIR STRENGTH!
This simple realisation got my spreadsheets spinning. I considered other key game factors, fiddled, tested …. and finally I have a formula that I am confident enough to share with The Jock Reynolds Community.
My formula uses the sum of each team’s Playing 22 Supercoach Price (which is adjusted with breakeven and rookie factors), a Home Ground Advantage factor, an Interstate Travel factor and a Ground Size factor.
Just four key inputs sounds too simplistic, but after testing over the last two season’s and fiddling with coefficients The MACHINE V3 is ready!
THE MACHINE LINE v SPORTSBET’S LINE ….. who will win?
My formula will give me a predicted winner and a margin for each game. With these I then check the line margin that is being offered by Sportsbet. If my prediction differs by over 2 goals, a simple $5 line bet is placed.
|GAME||Formulated Winner||Formulated Margin||Formulated Line||Sportsbet Line||Diff.||BET||Stake|
|1||Collingwood V Fremantle||Fremantle||27||8.5||18.5||Back Freo at the line||$5|
|2||GWS V Syndey||Sydney||57||50.5||6.5||No bet|
|3||GCS V Richmond||Richmond||28||14.5||13.5||Back Richmond at the line||$5|
|4||Carlton V PortAdelaide||Port Adelaide||9||-8.5 (Carlton are fav.)||17.5||Back Port at the line||$5|
The number 1 rule to successful punting is sticking to an initial strategy.
Here is mine;
1. Starting with $100 and game over for 2014 when this runs out.
2. I must stick to simple $5 line bets.
3. Regardless of what I believe, I must trust the formula and place bets accordingly.
My expected returns are low(all line bets pay $1.92) BUT my expected losses are also low so I am hoping that my $100 will see me out for the season.
Like watching a game with a keen eye on your Supercoach players, this simple line option offers me an added level of interest. If interested, register an account via our Sportsbet link to the right and try your luck! Some punters may like to entertain placing all bets in what is called an “all-up”…… increased risk for increased reward, much like selecting a midpricer like Matthew Wright.
I look forward to keeping you updated weekly on my progress.