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Higgo’s Supercoach Punting Machine Returns!

Published by Higgo on

 

While building The Higginator, an idea so brilliant and obvious hit me that I was forced into action.

I CAN USE EACH TEAM’S WEEKLY SUPERCOACH DATA AS A MEANS OF PUTTING A NUMERIC VALUE ON THEIR STRENGTH!

This simple realisation got my spreadsheets spinning. I considered other key game factors, fiddled, tested …. and finally I have a formula that I am confident enough to share with The Jock Reynolds Community.

CLICK HERE TO SIGN UP WITH SPORTSBET – YOU CAN NOW BET ON SUPERCOACH SCORES

My formula uses the sum of each team’s Playing 22 Supercoach Price (which is adjusted with breakeven and rookie factors), a Home Ground Advantage factor, an Interstate Travel factor and a Ground Size factor.

Just four key inputs sounds too simplistic, but after testing over the last two season’s and fiddling with coefficients The MACHINE V3 is ready!

THE MACHINE LINE v SPORTSBET’S LINE  ….. who will win?

My formula will give me a predicted winner and a margin for each game. With these I then check the line margin that is being offered by Sportsbet. If my prediction differs by over 2 goals, a simple $5 line bet is placed.

GAME Formulated Winner Formulated Margin Formulated Line Sportsbet  Line Diff.  BET  Stake
1 Collingwood V Fremantle Fremantle 27 8.5 18.5 Back Freo at the line $5
2 GWS V Syndey  Sydney 57 50.5 6.5 No bet
3 GCS V Richmond Richmond 28 14.5 13.5 Back Richmond at the line $5
4 Carlton V PortAdelaide Port Adelaide 9 -8.5          (Carlton are fav.)  17.5 Back Port at the line  $5

The number 1 rule to successful punting is sticking to an initial strategy.

Here is mine;

1. Starting with $100 and game over for 2014 when this runs out.

2. I must stick to simple $5 line bets.

3. Regardless of what I believe, I must trust the formula and place bets accordingly.

My expected returns are low(all line bets pay $1.92) BUT my expected losses are also low so I am hoping that my $100 will see me out for the season.

Like watching a game with a keen eye on your Supercoach players, this simple line option offers me an added level of interest. If interested, register an account via our Sportsbet link to the right and try your luck! Some punters may like to entertain placing all bets in what is called an “all-up”…… increased risk for increased reward, much like selecting a midpricer like Matthew Wright.

Configure your account with Sportsbet here to initiate the machine.

I look forward to keeping you updated weekly on my progress.

Regards,

Peter Higginbotham


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whippersnapper

Interesting points of analysis Higgo. How have you worked out Home Ground Advantage? For example West Coast only won something like 3 of 11 home games last year, essentially rendering a Home Ground Advantage meaningless. If they improve this year as many are predicting that number will surely increase though.

I would like to see 'Average Player Age' worked into the system as I think you will find the top 4 teams are generally the oldest teams.

Bensta

Thanks Higgo! I missed this last year. Time to win big on seems Higgo multis!

Peanuts

Go you good thing Higgo!!

I am placing these three straight in an all-up, turning my $20 into $140.

Really looking forward to following this again mate.

Cheers

Chuckles

Very disappointed to see your site go this way Jock! The flooding of betting ads is a massive problem. I understand you need advertisements to fund your site but remember there are school aged kids that use supercoach and follow your site! With the now continual bombardment of betting ads and now "punting tools" along with "punting club" propaganda I am starting to doubt that you have ever had supercoach in mind with this site and that you are now reaching your MAIN goal of promoting sports gambling. One word "SHAME". That is all.

se4no

I'm disappointed in you Chuckles!!
You bring negativity to what is and always has been a fun and positive place.
Leave!!

Nishy

bloody oath

Crowmagnon

While I'm not a huge fan of gambling, to suggest this as the main purpose of this site is a bit over the top. A quick scroll through the posts clearly shows this not to be the case. As an avid listener of the podcast and reader of every article, all I can say is thanks jock and the team for your wisdom and humor. Hair down stair!

Tom

Fair point Chuck but it's not flooding this site and it's hardly propaganda, it's one article per week on the best bets of the round. You don't have to read it if you don't like it. Calm down mate.

Joe

chuckles you don't speak jock like that, he is the father of fantasy, he has dedicated hours to this community and for you to talk to him like that IS BLOODY DISRESPECTFUL if you have a problem with what jock posts just don't use the website, Jock is working his ass of for you and your just spitting in his face having a go at him like this,

Jock

We'll miss ya Chuckles and sorry you feel that way mate. The bare fact of the matter is we wouldnt have a site without the ads old mate.

GeneralSoreness

Have you clicked the donation button prior to this post, or is that too difficult from atop your High Horse. Whilst I share some of your concerns re saturation of betting advertising, generally, I think your manner in raising the concerns is unwarranted and ill guided.

Super_Freak

Pretty big statement to assume Jock is all about promotion of sports gambling. This site has been a source of Supercoach wisdom and comic relief for a number of years. I understand your concern with kids being exposed to gambling, but I'm sure Jock & Co. are just trying to bring in a little revenue to help keep this great site running.

You better start writing emails to all the tv networks to complain about the bombardment of sports gambling adverts we are subjected to every day.

Keep up the good work boys!

medadsson

Hi Chuckles. I concur regarding gambling exposure in very public domains but I don't think that this site essentially pitches itself to young pups. In fact, I'd hazard a guess that like myself, most of the people who visit this site for entertainment, a laugh and some supercoach gold are generally blokes (and some special ladies) who have probably survived adolescence (apologies to Wayno) but still hold onto their passion for all things footy. I myself would rather bask in supercoach glory than bag a trophy wife. If I didn't consider any website was suitable for my kids I would block it. Rather though, you can't grow up without being exposed to some rather shitty things in life. With good advice and hard lessons learnt isn't that how you come to develop balanced judgement? Everything in measure and gambling in no way anywhere near dominates this site.

Grufflez

I applaud your moral stance.

Pat

hey guys, who would you choose, liba or coach?? cheers!!

GeneralSoreness

Libba

Scott

Have to agree with chuckles, sports betting content, as is the case with free to air AFL coverage should not be promoted in forums that include children as participants. Sportsbet can obviously see the business opportunity, I don’t think community forums should be following suit.
PS Bugger the Telstra promos off from the weekly podcasts, cringeworthy!!

Joe

chuckles and scott you don't speak jock like that, he is the father of fantasy, he has dedicated hours to this community and for you to talk to him like that IS BLOODY DISRESPECTFUL if you have a problem with what jock posts just don't use the website,

Father of Football

You tell him Jesse Levesque

Liam

Dude its a private website, they can do what they want….end of.

Legend Of Cricket

Daniel Murphy you sly dog

Jesse Levesque

javascript: postComment(1); What is a floating donut, it it what I just left in the toilet?

Peanuts

Please keep your trousers on gents. I an tipping(pun intended) that Jock and Co. invest a heck of a lot of time into this sensational site for very little reward. I donated, however the odd donation isn't going to cut it. Economics dictates key decisions. The sponsors and bet angles are probably helping to keep these boys afloat. If you don't like it, go and live in a cave.

Jai

Amen.

Cooper

Join my leagues of 311798 and 897453

Shannan

Hello! Reading the Sydney team and it has Rhyce Shaw playing centre against GWS! He is 299, surely he would be a lock? Suggestions please! I don't currently have a space for him in my side but surely after seeing that we should all reconsider?

BEN

i agree but for price like suckling

Shannan

I really want Shaw now but can't fit him over Suckling / Everitt! 🙁

BEN

3.30 min so excited

Josh

Got a last minute need to join another league? This one has room! 903342
Cheers

Billy

Who would people choose Aish and Crouch or Ellis and Crouch. What about Cunningham will he wear the vest?

medadsson

Another last minute league – wanted to be in one with a mate so created a newbie. Last Minute League 671280. Sorry to hijack the post but my mates team is adeptly named Mystery Bets so please excuse..

Osh

Why won't fox footy let me see the live supercoach scores

Billy

I know right now you have to pay now.

Give It A Go

That sucks, dream team is free

Osh

Does Any one have the scores

shane

All right, hands up who doesnt have PENDLES?

David

Me and not worried
Will get him after round 8 for 620k

KadeK is a jet

It could be possible for him to have a bad dip in form which then I could pounce. I think this could be due to the fact the captaincy might be too much for Pendles. Hopefully I can snag him around 550K, that would be perfecto!

Osh

Really Fyfe gets subbed off…

dean

Subbed off with a 122 u cant bloody complain with that

Osh

Yer I know but I thought we might of got less because I can't get the scores

Billy

does anybody know how to check other people's teams in match centre that are in your league?
Thanks in andvance, Billy

cyril is the man

Langdon, great start

David

Question should be who didn't have him on the pine, those people will have the best start.

KadeK is a jet

I have Langdon on the bench as an emergencey. Then I have Clurey on the field. Is their anyway I can get Langdon 111. I also have Georgiou on the bench.

SCaddict

The only way to get Langdon's score, if he is an emergency, is to field a non playing player such as say a Matt Fuller if he is not named for Rd1.

That's what I intend to do anyway as I also have him sitting on my bench with a big fat E.

KadeK is a jet

I have langdon as an emergencey, should I trade out Georgiou who is the other on my bench (who is not an emergencey) for fuller and then put fuller on the field and put clurey on the bench. I should then get langdons score of 111. Is it worth trading fuller for georgiou?

SCaddict

Look it's an interesting call as it's ultimately more than likely going to cost you one of your 30 trades to do so. But I think 111 from a rookie defender is worth it. Could give you a nice leg up in the rankings race.

It also gives you a couple of weeks to decide on your last defensive rookie and see who shines out of the likes of Clurey, Lemmens, Cameron, Laidler, Langford, Georgiou etc. Then you can lock in who looks to be the most promising cash cow out of that lot when they are on the bubble after Rd2 if Fuller doesn't play. Just need to set aside a trade for this out of your next 4 trades.

Think it's safe to say now that Langdon is a keeper so that is one rookie we can lock down without any further thought. Even if he doesn't score a tonne again he's still going to make you some nice coin.

But the lad can play so should continue to produce some nice scores although like all rookies is likely to be up and down.

KadeK is a jet

I traded Georgiou (out) and brang in Fuller, who I think should be getting a game soon. Then I Fuller on the field for Clurey.So my back line rookies are currently McDonald and Fuller but Langdons emergency score should cover fullers 0. So Fuller will defitnitley not play and McDonald will? (last question, thanks for all the troubles)

SCaddict

Yes that's very likely to be the case. But it's still important to check the team lists next week as well as keep an eye out for any late changes.

If Fuller is named next weekend just pick someone else who isn't playing.

KadeK is a jet

Yep! okay thanks for the help! Really apreciate it!

medadsson

G'day KadeK … did that cost you one of your 30 trades? ie I know round 1 trades are unlimited but do you still have 30 (presuming you did that trade after Freo-Pies game? Cheers.

KadeK is a jet

still have 30 trades!

WombatsFC

I have him at D6 and if he can back it up in rnd 2 it creates the position where I can downtrade Suckling to Langford/LMcD/Laidler (if they score as anticipated) and pocket up to 200k before round 3.
Played: D6-M2-M5-R2 =501

KadeK is a jet

Is everyone who put Sandilands as VC using his score. Comment below to see what you are doing. I have no idea and need some advice.

I think I might just keep the C on GAJ because no tagger for Richmond could mean = 40 disposals = 2 – 3 goals = 150+ Supercoach! Wish that would happen! Thanks Kade

David

Most people wont risk it. Keep Sandi's score safe to be safe 🙂

dean

I want to keep it but dont know who i can use as my donut player will thurlow get a game or safe to chuck captain on him?

medadsson

I had VC on Sandi … keeping his score and placing C on my non playing ruck. Yes, GAJ is a good chance to go better but I prefer a bird in the hand so to speak. Good luck if you chose to roll the dice.

NutSack

NO NO NO – JUST NO!!!!

Are you guys for real???

NO you dont intentionally trade in fuller to get a measly score of 100 from Langdon!!!!

Are you serious? Depends on how much a trade is worth to you but I think it is worth ALOT more than 50 points and a rookie who doesnt increase in value.

Whoever else you have on field is likely to score 50 – 80 points, so Langdons score isnt that much more, and DEFINATELY not worth a trade and a rookie who will rot on your pine making no money for weeks!!!

Any yes if you get a score of 125 you take it- beats the hell out of getting a sub 100 score which can happen.
Thats the risk for those who dont just set and forget a C

matthew

I agree fuller is no real chance to play soon anyway with murphy back goodes and higgins in the backline before him. it is really stupid chasing a scrore you missed out on and wasting a trade and a dead rookie spot.

dannyyboyy

i agree with you on that nuts. risking a dead bench spot to chase 50 points is madness. i got langdon on the bench, im just glad i got him as he is gonna make me some $$$. then my other playing rookies will start making me cash straight away to. i got clurey playing shortly, what if he scores me 100? probably wont but you never know. its to early in the season to start making rash decisions

NutSack

PS And just for some that dont fully understand how the C and VC scores work- the difference is not doubled so dont be confused and thinking you are missing out on twice as many points.

Sandi 2 x 127 = 254 + GAJ 150 = 404

GAJ 2 x 150 = 300 + Sandi 127 = 427

Now are you willing to risk Sandis VC score?

I just thought Id put it out there because lots of people assume the difference to the C score is doubled but its not.

derek

the C goes on Ablett every week. Its like having TWO abletts in your team 🙂

Big Janks

I agree with the NutSack on not wasting a trade to get the pts in to your lineup. What if Langdon hurts himself next week or scores 20? You could then be sitting with two non playing def rookies on your bench. Remember Rd 1 points only count for one rd when the three rd price change comes in to play Rd 4.. Not worth the risk for an extra 50-75 pts IMO.

I unfortunately don't have Langdon but am happy with my rookie Def as it stands (McDonald, Langford, Clurey, Georgiou). I'll patiently wait until going in to the price change round before swapping him in. Plenty of time to see how things play out….there has only been one game played!

Dustbin Feltchers

am really hoping michael hibberd doesnt play round one..i have the E on langdons 111….i could handle a non playing hibberds donut for the E111…am i clutching at straws? i could get mav weller, he is suspended till round 2…will he do ok at the saints??

Billy

does anybody know how to check other people's teams in match centre that are in your league? Or can't you?
Thanks in andvance, Billy

scooter

Won’t be able to Billy until head to head matches start at the start of rnd 3

Billy

ok thanks but after the end of round 1 we should be able to click on a team in leagues?

Dean

You will not be able to see until round 3 when the head to heads start Billy, as Scooter mentioned, since there are unlimited trades, one could simply look at others teams and take there POD and choices.

cyril is the man

I don't have Langdon in my side at all…. dam

Big Sandi looked fit and my other two Beams and Pendles looked good. Dane Swan looked like he's playing injured or got a knock or strain early. Fyfe…. looks like he's about to explode and if he learns how to kick at the big sticks he is going to rack up some huge scores

I had Barlow most of last year. Looks like i'll need to get him back soon this year. Great footballer

JB

Scenario: Langdon as emergency in midfield
1. Downgrade Dom Tyson to M Crouch hope he won't play thoughts …

Shinboner

Tyson will probably end up hitting something close to 100 against a weak Saints midfield with no Jack Steven.

David

After 1st Q Franklin has 2 disposals 1 goal and 1 F/Against for 25 SC points?

Matty

Jock, your a sell out, a disappointment !!!!
Promoting gambling isn’t the only way to source a income for your site. Yeah it may pay better then others but there millions out there. SELL OUT

Dean

Lol, your an idiot Matty, You try running a website and paying for it out of your pocket, Jock and the boys do nothing but help us out and keep us entertained, you can simply ignore the adds if you choose.

moncon

Good one Matty, what a genius, and you above Chuckles, don't you realise that the advertisers look at the stats on page views, comments, members, and so on? So by reading this page, and commenting, you are padding the numbers which, umm, encourages the advertisers. Feeling stupid yet? If you don't like it, vote with your mouse and never come back to this site.

Scott

Why did Kieran Jack not play for the swannies? Got me a donut

Grufflez

No bench cover mate?

SCaddict

He had a stiff back when he woke up this morning. He probably should either invest in a better bed or take it a bit easier with the night activities before a game.

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2014-03-15/jacks-back-

Steve

Hanley and Daisy

Or

Walker (Car) and Tyson

What are you thoughts on these two options please?

JB

Thoughts on D Currie, will he play round 1?

peter

Higgo, look forward to your predictions again this week..

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