Sydney Swans 2014: Supercoach scouting report
We’re almost home! Howdy folks, it’s Barron Von Crow here and we’re headed to NSW today to take a look at the 2012 AFL Premiers, the Sydney Swans.
I tell you what, I’m so excited we’ve got some real football happening out there, it’s when we can get some really good scouting work done!
Anyway, Sydney have made another splash this off-season, in 2013 it was the signing of Kurt Tippett, this off-season it was once again another huge coup for the Swans, this time they have Lance Franklin coming over from Hawthorn. Sydney went one step backwards in 2013, only making it to the Preliminary Finals, where they lost to Fremantle.
Sydney will be an interesting side to pick from, their 22 is pretty well set from last year, so I don’t think we’ll see a ton of value on the cheaper rookie side of things, but they’ve got some terrific premium talent for us to pick through. They’re also a tough lot to judge as they have several quality players, who play the same position and are all within the same price of each other. So lets go take a look at how the Sydney Swans are looking for 2014.
Sydney Swans 2014 Scouting Report
2013 Record: 15 wins, 6 losses, 1 draw
Lance Franking (Free Agent from Hawthorn)
Brandon Jack (Promoted Rookie)
Dane Rampe (Promoted Rookie)
Zak Jones (Pick #15, National Draft)
George Hewett (Pick #32, National Draft)
Toby Nankervis (Pick #35, National Draft)
Aliir Aliir (Pick #44, National Draft)
Patrick Mitchell (Pick #45, Rookie Draft)
Llyod Perris (Pick #55, Rookie Draft)
Jude Bolton (Retired)
Martin Mattner (Retired)
Mitch Morton (Retired)
Alex Brown (Delisted)
Tony Armstrong (Delisted)
Shane Mumford (Traded to GWS)
Jesse White (Traded to Collingwood)
Andrejs Everitt (Traded to Carlton)
Jed Lamb (Pre-season draft to GWS)
2014 Team Preview
2014 Bye Round: 10
Final 4: Port Adelaide Power, St Kilda Saints, Western Bulldogs, Richmond Tigers
The Sydney Swans will be looking pretty good heading into the 2014 AFL season, especially after they nabbed the biggest free agent in the off-season, Buddy Franklin. Kurt Tippett already started to look dangerous as he got same game time under his legs after missing the first 11rounds through suspension, a Tippett/Franklin forward combination might be the one of the most dangerous in the AFL next year. They lost ruckman Shane Mumford to the cross-town rivals Greater Western Sydney, but luckily have the Canadian rugby player Mike Pyke to fill his shoes, as well as drafting the promising Toby Nankervis. The biggest issue for Sydney next year is the amount of depth they’ve lost on their list, with a best 22 in Mumford leaving, Bolton, Mattner and Morton retiring, as well as losing players like Armstrong, White, Everitt and Lamb, guys who weren’t consistently best 22, but could play a role in the Swans squad if needed to. Still, they’ll also have some “INS” from their list that barely played last year. They’ll also get Rhys Shaw (6 games) and Alex Johnson (0 games) back from ACL injuries, as well as hopefully a full year from Gary Rohan (5 games), Sam Reid also (10 games) and Adam Goodes (12 games).
The fixture for the Swans has been rated as the 13th most difficult by Champion Data, a fixture that gives them as many games against the top 6 (7) as against the bottom 6 (the same given to a team like St. Kilda). In fairness to Sydney however, that is slightly inflated due to the usual 2 game state derby rule which means they get to play GWS twice. They’ll also have a tough run at home, with 7 of their 11 home games being against 2013 Top 8.
Double up games will be against GWS, Hawthorn, Essendon, Port Adelaide and Richmond, where the GWS games should be easy wins, and the Hawthorn games being tough, as well as having to deal with improving sides like Port and Richmond. Their final 4 is a mixed bag, the game agaist the Saints might be a demo job, but Port and Richmond will be tough and while the Bulldogs might miss out on the finals again in 2014, they are an improving side and will not be an easy beat. It’ll be an interesting season for Sydney, they’ve now got a ton of firepower after the Tippett/Franklin recruitments, a top notch midfield as well as a very good defense. If they stay healthy they are a real shot at winning the Grand Final in 2014.
2014 Projected Wins/Losses: 17 wins, 5 losses
2012 SC Average: 120.2
2013 SC Average: 105.4
Starting Price: 568.6K
Kennedy suffered a tad under the extra attention he had placed on him from the opposition last year, his averages falling 14.8 points while being ranked as the player under the most pressure per possession and with the lowest kick to handball ratio (0.6) of any player to average 17+ possessions a game. For the year he averaged 27.1 possessions, 1.7 marks, 3.2 Inside 50’s, 7.6 clearances, 4.9 tackles and kicked 14.16 for the year. These stats had him ranked 4th in Total Possessions, 14th in Possessions per game, 1st in Total Handballs, 1st in Handballs per game, 1st in Total Contested Possessions, 1st in Contested Possessions per game, 1st in Total Clearances, 2nd in Clearances per game, 13th in Total Tackles, and 8th in Total Effective Possessions. About the only category Kennedy had a major dropoff in was his goal kicking, going from 29.13 in 2012, down to 14.16 in 2013.
Kennedy was once again unstoppable in the stoppages, he’s recorded 43 more clearances and 98 more contested possessions than any other played in the past 3 seasons. He’s also extremely durable, having not missed a game in his 4 years in Sydney. By his own admission, he barely got through last year after dealing with some groin issues, he’s been given a reduced pre-season workload to help him recover, and I think we’ll see an even better Kennedy in 2014 because of it.
2014 SC Projection: 108-114
2012 SC Average: 115.5
2013 SC Average: 90.4
Lance Franklin is probably the biggest Free Agent signing since the concept was introduced a few years ago, signing a massive 9 year/$10 million offer from the Sydney Swans. Franklin was a big disappointment in 2013, his Supercoach average dropping 25.1 points for the year, the 2nd biggest droppoff of any player to play at least 11 games in both 2012 and 2013. For the season Franklin had averages of 15.7 possessions, 4.1 marks including 2.2 marks inside 50, 3.3 Inside 50’s, 2.5 tackles and kicked 60.37 at 61.9% accuracy, his highest in 3 years (he almost fell to 50% conversion rate in 2012, kicking 69.64, imagine what his average would have been if he kicked straighter!). Those stats had him ranked 4th in Total Goals, 5th in Goals per game, 9th for Total Marks Inside 50, 17th for Marks Inside 50 per game, 8th in Total Clangers and 16th in Clangers per game.
Even with his reduced scores, Franklin still ranked “elite” in disposals, contested possessions, groundball gets inside 50, goals and score involvements by Champion Data. He ranked 6th in the AFL for scoreboard impact with his 60 goals, 11 goal assists and 20 score assists. In one on one contests, only former teammate Jarryd Roughead recorded a better winning percentage of the top 30.
We must consider that Franklins 2012 output was helped by his massive score of 236 he scored against North Melbourne when he kicked 13 goals, that game alone boosted his average from 107.4 to 115.4, a full 8 points. Previous to that he had seasons of 107.5 and 110.8, so he still does have plenty of scoring potential in him. Sydney looks like it’ll be a good fit for Franklin. They have an excellent midfield, a big forward in Kurt Tippett to take some pressure of him, as well as a host of excellent small forward options around him. This is the cheapest you’d have been able to buy Franklin since 2009, you may not get a chance to buy him for sub 500K again.
2014 SC Projection: 102-108
2012 SC Average: 112.4
2013 SC Average: 109.3
Starting Price: 589.4K
Jack has been one of the best midfielders in the AFL these past two years, and while his scores slightly dipped in 2013, he still had an A+ season for the Swans. Jack was ranked in the top 3 for the Swans in 15 games last year, only Joel Selwood and Gary Ablett appeared more often, that’s how good his year was. For the season he averaged 25.2 possessions, 2.1 marks, 5.8 Inside 50’s, 5.1 clearances, 6.4 tackles and kicked 24.14. These stats had him ranked 1st for Total Inside 50’s, 2nd for Inside 50’s per game, 14th in Total Kicks, 15th in Total Handballs, 9th in Total Possessions, 12th in Total Contested Possessions, 19th in Total Uncontested Possessions, 12th in Total Effective Disposals, 8th in Total Clearances, 2nd in Total Tackles, 8th in Tackles per game, 2nd in Total Goal Assists, 11th in Goal Assists per game, 3rd for Total Supercoach Points and 15th in Supercoach Points per game. Whew, that’s a loadfull!
Jack was the only midfielder in the AFL to be rated as “elite” in goals, score assists, score involvements, tackles and pressure applied by Champion Data. He also booted the 3rd most goals by any midfielder, once again behind Joel Selwood and Gary Ablett. He lead the AFL in Inside 50’s, while also recording the 3rd highest retention rate of the top 10.
I think the big question for many Supercoachers will be “who do I pick out of Jack, Kennedy and Hannebery?” and truthfully there’s no wrong answer. Kennedy might be more favourable because he’s slightly cheaper and has the big 2012 year where he averaged 120 behind him, but it’s one of those situations where you could pick either guy and come out a winner.
2014 SC Projection: 108-114
2012 SC Average: 82.1
2013 SC Average: 95.3
Starting Price: 514.2K
Hannebery has become an excellent companion piece to Jack and Kennedy, recording career highs in the majority of statistically categories in his 5th season of AFL football. For the season he averaged 25.3 possessions, 3.3 marks, 3.4 Inside 50’s, 3.3 clearances, 2.8 tackles and kicked 17.16. These stats had him ranked 13th in Total Possessions, 6th in Total Handballs, 10th in Handballs per game, 15th in Total Effective Possessions, 19th in Total Contested Possessions and 8th in Total Clangers.
Showing how important he was to the Swans, Hannebery had a -37 average when the Swans lost (lucky it only happened 6 times!) compared to when the Swans won. He was also ranked 1st in the AFL for intercept possessions in the forward-half and also had the 6th best disposal efficency while under pressure of the top 50 ball winners. He started to get tagged towards the end of the year, which impacted his scores. He begun the year averaging 103 between Rd 1-8, then his Rd 9-16 fell to 95, with his Rd 17-23 average falling down to 86.
There’s no reason for Hannebery not to average triple digits in 2014, but he likely doesn’t have the potential to score as well as Jack or Kennedy. If you find yourself slightly short on those two, Hannebery will make a fine substitute for them however and he may be a slight POD for your squad if other Supercoachers go for Kennedy instead.
2014 SC Projection: 98-104
2012 SC Average: 65.1
2013 SC Average: NA
Starting Price: 246K
Alex Johnson didn’t play at all in 2013 after rupturing his ACL during pre-season training, an injury that required 2 knee reconstructions in the space of 4 months. He did look OK in his 2nd season in 2012, with averages of 14 possessions, 4.3 marks, 3.3 rebound 50’s, 3.3 spoils and 2.6 tackles. He also held his opponent goalless in 12 of his 25 games, while recording 71 intercept marks in his first 2 seasons, which was ranked 3rd at Sydney.
Johnson has only just returned to full training, didn’t play in the recent Swans intra-club match and will likely only play 1 of the Swans pre-season matches. He’s a difficult one to judge and the Swans do have a few cheap defensive options like Shaw and Laidler for us to look at, but Johnson is cheap and he does have some potential to score points next year. You’ll get a few chances to take a look at him, so keep your eyes peeled on him during pre-season and see how he goes.
2014 SC Projection:72-78
2012 SC Average: 98.3
2013 SC Average: 106.1
Starting Price: 572.5K
McVeigh finally cracked the triple digit barrier in Supercoach, after averaging between 93 and 99 the past 5 seasons. A lot of it had to do with his ability to roam freely across half back, he ended the year with averages of 27.5 possessions, 4.1 marks, 3.5 Inside 50’s, 3.6 rebound 50’s, 2.8 clearances, 3.5 tackles while kicking 16.7. These stats had him ranked 2nd in Total Possessions, 11th in Possessions per game, 3rd in Total Kicks, 10th in Kicks per game, 2nd in Total Effective Possessions, 5th in Effective Possessions per game, 13th in Total Handballs, 4th in Total Uncontested Possessions, 14th in Uncontested Possessions per game, 5th in Total Time on Ground %, 5th in Total Supercoach Points and 16th in Supercoach Points per game.
McVeigh recorded the 4th biggest differential for disposals compared to his opponent, behind Pendlebury, Ablett and Swan. 29% of his possessions were won in the back 50 (hence the addition of defensive eligibility this year). He slightly cooled off towards the end of the year, recording a Rd 17-23 average of 98, while also scoring 66 in the Swans Finals loss to Hawthorn. He made up for it the next week with 42 possessions and a massive 184 in the Swans win against Carlton however. McVeigh does have the ability to score big also, with 7 games with 120 or more Supercoach points last year.
McVeigh is one of the top 4 most expensive defenders in 2014, but with good reason. Now that Bartel is looking like he’ll be switched forward, it probably increases the worth of McVeigh. He should be a top 3 defender in 2014, and while he will cost big money, you get what you pay for in Supercoach. Don’t hesitate to pick him at all and he should make an excellent defensive 1-2 option with Mitchell or Walker should you choose to spend that much cash.
2014 SC Projection: 100-106
2012 SC Average: NA
2013 SC Average: 86.2
Starting Price: 464.8K
Tom Mitchell, the son of former Sydney great Barry Mitchell was drafted to Sydney under the father/son rule during the 2011 National Draft. He finally made his debut for the Swans in Rd 10 against Essendon, he virtually forced the Swans selectors to pick him after racking up games of 52 and 56 possessions in the previous 2 weeks with Swans NEAFL side. Mitchell ended up playing 12 games for the season with averages of 19.3 possessions, 3.2 marks, 2.4 Inside 50’s, 1.2 rebound 50’s, 1.5 clearances, 4.7 tackles and kicked 11.17
It didn’t take Mitchell long to adjust to AFL football, scoring 87 on debut (coming on as the sub during the 2nd quarter as well), and then racking up 31 possessions, 5 marks, 10 tackles, kicking 1.2 and scoring 126 Supercoach points in a one-sided demolition of the Adelaide Crows. In fact, his first 6 weeks were awesome, with a Supercoach average of 102.5. His 2nd half of his year was much more quieter, with his average falling to 69.8, though the Swans did have some tough competition against the likes of Geelong, Hawthorn, Collingwood and Richmond during that span. Mitchell played as a high half forward, and was involved in 24% of all scoring chains in quarters he played in, which was ranked 4th at the Swans. He also ranked 1st at the Swans, and 8th in the AFL for pressure points per 100 minutes of any player who played 11 or more games.
I know lots of Supercoachers are split between Mitchell and Parker for a forward spot in their side. Mitchell may be a bit more of a POD selection at this stage. His 2nd half of his year was a bit slower, while Parker didn’t have such an immediate impact to make him look like the sexier pick, he does have the natural progression of his scores which would make him seem like the safer pick.
2014 SC Projection: 88-94
2012 SC Average: 49.2
2013 SC Average: 32.7
Starting Price: 176.2K
Gary Rohan could only manage the 5 games (3 H&A, 2 Finals) in 2013 after returning from a terrible broken leg that he suffered in Rd 4 of 2012. He was named as the sub in his return game in Rd 21 against St. Kilda for a return of 11 points, while scoring 39 and 48 in his next two games. For the season he had averages of 5 possessions, 2.4 marks, 1.2 Inside 50’s, 2.2 tackles and kicked 5.1
His low numbers are understandable since he was just returning back from injury, but we must also consider that he’s never played more than 9 games a year in his 4 AFL seasons and he’s not a big ball winner either. He’s had 10 or less possessions in 15 of his 27 AFL matches and only averages 13 possessions in his NEAFL games. He makes up for that though with his tremendous forward line pressure, ranking 2nd at the Swans in forward half pressure applied per minute, as well as his excellent goal kicking, having kicked 23.7 at his time at the club.
I’m not expecting huge things from Rohan, but with the increased rookie pricing, at 176K he may come into our calculations. He’ll be well improved after full pre-season and should be best 22 for the Swans. At the very worst he’ll generate some cash for you while he occupies your F6 or bench spots.
2014 SC Projection: 60-66
2012 SC Average: 70.9
2013 SC Average: 86.9
Starting Price: 468.8K
Parker is looming as a sneaky choice for your forward line this year, a player who as a 21 year old and having played 3 AFL seasons and 57 games is sitting right in that “breakout” zone. Parker finally got rid of the sub vests that he frequently wore in 2012,a season where he was subbed off 3 times and named as the starting sub 4 times (including the entire Finals series). For the year, Parker had averages of 21 possessions, 3 marks, 2.8 Inside 50’s, 3.2 clearances, 5 tackles and kicked 22.12 for the year.
His 22 goals was 6th best at the Swans and also ranked 4th at the Swans for Scoreboad Impact after also recording 18 goal assists and 29 score assists. He won 57% of his possessions in the forward half last year, ranked 6th in the AFL out of the top 100 ball winners. He did suffer from some bad kicking though, with a kicking efficency down to 55.8% (compared to 65% in 2012) as well as recording the worst retention rate on Inside 50 entries at the Swans.
Parkers biggest improvements will need to come from his consistency and removing those bad games from his sheet. He had 7 scores of 100+ in 2013, but also had 6 games of 70 or under. He also started to fade a bit as the season wore on, with a Rd 1-8 average of 96, that fell to 87 between Rd 9-16 and then to 77 between Rd 17-23.
As we said before though, Parker has had a natural progression in his scores as he develops as a football player, so we’d expect (or hope) that he’d continue that trend into 2014. Now that he’s obviously past the sub vest stage (something Mitchell still might get) it makes him a very interesting target for our forward lines and one to definitely consider.
2014 SC Projection: 90-96
2012 SC Average: 76.7
2013 SC Average: 86.5
Starting Price: 466.8K
It’ll be very interesting to see what Pyke can give us in Supercoach now that Shane Mumford has moved over to West Sydney and Pyke has slid into the #1 spot on the depth chart for the Swans. Last year Pyke had averages of 11 possessions, 3.6 marks, 2.1 of which were contested, 21.8 hitouts, 1.6 clearances and kicked 28.8. These stats had him ranked 8th in Total Hitouts, 2nd in Total Contested Marks, 5th in Contested Marks per game and 14th in TOG%
Pyke has shown the ability to push forward with his 28 goals, while also kicking 89% of his goals from set shots, which ties back in with his fantastic contested marking skills (only Travis Cloke recorded more contested marks in 2013). Pyke won 45% of his hitout contests, which was ranked as “above average” by Champion Data, but his hitout to advantage ratio was only 26.2%, ranked 27th out of the top 50 hitout winners.
It’s interesting to go back and look at the games Shane Mumford missed last year, Rounds 7, 13 and 14 to see how Pyke performed. Those 3 games were against Hawthorn, Port Adelaide and Carlton, where he averaged 9.6 possessions, 2.3 marks, 34.6 hitouts, kicked 2.1 and had a Supercoach average of 96.3. We can also see similar stats from 2012, where Mumford missed Rounds 9 and 18 that Pyke played where he averaged 11.5 possessions, 2.5 marks, 38 hitouts and 105.5 Supercoach points. I know 5 games is a very small sample size, but I think those are the sort of stats we’d expect to see from Pyke as the main man in the ruck for 2014. Anything over 30 hitouts per game is likely to put him top 3 in that category, Sydney don’t have a ton of depth at the ruck spot, with Kurt Tippett able to spot ruck when required, the recycled Tom Derickx, who only managed 2 games in his 3 years at Richmond, as well as the exciting rookie prospect Toby Nankervis, rookie listed Sam Naismith and US Baksetball convert Patrick Mitchell (who may only be considered a ruck because he’s 201 cms and 107KGs).
The point is that Sydney will rely heavily upon Pyke in the ruck contests next year, but he’s also shown that he’s capable of resting forward and kicking goals, so even if he’s not in the contest, he can still score points. Pyke is underpriced for what he’s capable of achieving next year, and would make an excellent selection in eithe ruck spot.
2014 SC Projection: 98-104
2012 SC Average: 79.8
2013 SC Average: 61.8
Starting Price: 333.3K
Jetta played the first 10 games of 2013, before a shin injury sidelined him until Finals time. For the year Jetta averaged 11.8 possessions, 3.3 marks, 3.7 Inside 50’s, 1.3 rebound 50’s, 1 clearance, 2.8 tackles and kicked 10.3. He was down in a number of areas compared to 2012, with his goal average falling from 1.8 to 0.8. In 2012 he only had 1 game with 10 or less possessions, in 2013 he had 10 or less in 4 of his first 5 games (though to be fair he was sub in Rd 5).
Jetta has already had to have off-season knee surgery, going in in mid January torelease the iliotibial band (ITB) in his right knee. While it has only kept him out for a few weeks of pre-season training, and he should be fine for Rd 1, it may mean he’s slightly underdone at the start of the year. I know many will consider Jetta since he’s slotted in as a mid-pricer, and the fact he’ll have Franklin and Tippett to crumb goals off in the forward line, but he’s never been a huge scorer in Supercoach. His best year was 2012 where he kicked 45 goals and only averaged 80 points. He may get somewhere close to that again, but that may mean his price only raises 70-80K. This may be a case of you’d be better off either spending the extra money on someone like Parker, or investing 150K elsewhere and buying Gary Rohan instead.
2014 SC Projection:68-74
2012 SC Average: 103.1
2013 SC Average: 101.1
Starting Price: 545.5K
Each year I tell myself that this may be the year O’Keefe begins to fall off, and each year he proves me wrong, with the 33 year old Ryan O’Keefe still scoring well in Supercoach and still being an important part of the Sydney Swans team. For the 2013 season O’Keefe had averages of 23 possessions, 3.8 marks, 3.1 Inside 50’s, 5 clearances and 6.6 tackles. Stats that saw him ranked 17th in Total Possessions, 20th in Total Handballs, 4th in Total Contested Possessions, 13th in Contested Possessions per game, 11th in Total Clearances, 1st in Total Tackles, 6th in Tackles per game and 13th in Total Supercoach points.
O’Keefe is probably one of the most durable players we’ve seen in the AFL for some time, having only missed 2 games in 9 years, and joins Gary Ablett Jr in being the only two players to have had 4000 possessions and kicked 200 goals since 2004. On the downside for O’Keefe, his kick rating was the 2nd worst of the Sydney midfielders (53.2% efficency), while his retention rate on his inside 50’s was also the 2nd worst of the Swans top 10. His goal tally of 12.11 was his worst return since 2002, not being helped by his 52.2% accuracy rate (he was 20.7 for a 74.1% accuracy in 2012, almost same amount of chances in both years).
O’Keefe should battle on for another year, but I doubt many will look at him for Supercoach in 2014. We’ve got both Kieran Jack and Josh Kennedy around the same price this year, both those players will be better options next year, especially since O’Keefe does have a chance to see his game slip a little.
2014 SC Projection: 96-102
2012 SC Average: 72.8
2013 SC Average: 61.7
Starting Price: 299.4K
Shaw had a few injuries in 2013 that kept him to only 6 games for the season. First an abdominal injury sidelines him between Rounds 3-18, then in Rd 22 he tore his ACL, knocking him out for the rest of the season. For the year Shaw averaged 13.7 possessions, 3.5 marks, 2.8 rebound 50’s, and 1 tackle per game.
Shaw had LARS surgery, rather than the traditional reconstructive surgery, meaning he should be ready for Round 1. He did play in the Swans intra-club matchup and has declared himself fit for the start of the season. He will be slightly underpriced, but even then he’s not really worth the selection. Apart from his 1st year at the Swans in 2009, which saw him average 94.8, his scores have all been in the low 70’s range. That’s the type of score you’ll potentially get from a rookie priced player if you pick the right one, so we’ll likely look for cheaper options next season.
2014 SC Projection:66-72
2012 SC Average: 86.5
2013 SC Average: 89.8
Starting Price: 484.4K
Kurt Tippett only played 10 games during the H&A season due to a 11 game suspension he received for his part in the Adelaide Crows salary cap breaches and draft tampering charges. Tippett didn’t take long to get back into form for the Swans though, with averages of 10.8 possessions, 4.4 marks, 1.8 of which were contested and 3 which were inside 50, 1 Inside 50, 2.4 tackles and kicked 35.20. These stats had him ranked 20th for Total Marks Inside 50 (impressive considering he only played half a year), 4th in Marks Inside 50 per game, 9th in Contested Marks per game and 3rd in Goals per game.
There was concern from some that the Swans became too reliant on Tippett and their attack became predictable, with Tippett being the equal most used target in the AFL between Rounds 13-22, while also having the 2nd worst retention out of the top 10. He also had the 5th worst winning percentage in offensive one on one contests out of the top 30.
It still seemed to work OK for the Swans, with Tippett ranking equal 1st for goals and 3rd for scoreboard impact during his games, while ranking equal 2nd in the league for marks inside 50 while winning 7 of 10 games. Tippett locked into that KPF rule for Supercoach, he’s capable of putting up good scores, but he’ll have his inconsistent patches where he scores poorly. He scored 130 in his 2nd game back, which was followed up by scores of 77, 83, 73 and 90, then 3 good scoring games of 103, 130 and 109. He has had his goal kicking issues in the past, especially on set shots, with his accuracy being between 55 and 58% at the Crows, he improved that to 63.6% at the Swans, so it was something he has likely been working on during his suspension.
There are many that worry the addition of Franklin will take away some of his goal scoring opportunities. He showed in 2012 that he can still score well while not being the constant focus, sharing a forward line with Taylor Walker and still averaging 86.5. He may also start having to play in the backup ruck role also, which may negatively effect his goal kicking opportunities. There will be a few who will go for Tippett in 2014, and I can’t say I blame them (I ended up bringing him into my side last year), but he does have his consistency issues at times, which is the main reason i’ll be skipping him in 2014.
2014 SC Projection: 84-90
2012 SC Average: 89.7
2013 SC Average: 84.2
Starting Price: 454.4K
Goodes only played 12 games last year, after injuring his knee in Rd 13 which forced him to have surgery. He finished the 2013 season with averages of 17.8 possessions, 5 marks, 3.4 Inside 50’s, 2.1 tackles and kicked 20.9
In a way the Swans were lucky to have Tippett returning, because he filled in a forward hole that Goodes left when he was injured. Goodes was ranked “elite” as a forward for both disposals and metres gained by Champion Data and also was the Swans most used target inside 50, while also being ranked as the 25th most used target inside 50 in the AFL, with the Swans retaining possession 63% of the time he was targeted, ranked 11th in the top 50.
It’ll be interesting to see where he fits in a Tippett and Franklin forward line. He doesn’t really attend centre bounces much these days, only attending 8% of them in 2013, down from the 37% he attended in 2011. He also has his age and injury issues hanging over him. Goodes may be our forward line version of Ryan O’Keefe, one where we may normally give him consideration, but we’ve been provided with other alternatives from the Swans for around the same price, so we’ll likely skip him in 2014.
2014 SC Projection: 86-92
Quick list of lower ranked players to keep your eyes on during pre-season
Jeremy Laidler-DEF – 161.8K
Zak Jones– DEF – 147.3K
Toby Nankervis – RUCK – 117.3K
And that’s how the Barron sees the Sydney Swans in 2014. Got any questions, or any other Swans players on your radar? Stick ’em in the comment section below or hit us up on the Twitter @BarronVonCrow
Barron Von Crow