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PODCAST: A Supercoach champion under the microscope

Published by Jock on

First episode of 2014

It’s a masterclass this week.

It really is as simple as that.

In this week’s podcast we discuss the great Peter Higginbotham’s recent article which put the winner of Supercoach 2013 under the microscope in terms of team selection and trading strategy.

Walk with us down the winding path towards AFL Fantasy footy enlightenment as we change the way you approach the game in 2014.

Dare to change. Dare to learn. Dare to become the best fantasy footballer that you possibly can be.

Enjoy the show – and look forward to the discussion in the comments below.

Give us a rating and a comment on iTunes here – we’d love you for it community


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Duration: 43 minutes, Glorious!!!


Or 86 minutes if you listen to it twice … or am I the only one!?

Yes you can never get enough of a good thing t-woof. πŸ™‚


Oh believe me, I would guarantee that most people would watch this twice, it's absolutely priceless information.

Give it a Go

Time to listen,learn and drink a cold one or or 2!!


Another thoroughly enjoyable show gentleman, in fact, this episode was a corker!
One thing – bit confused about wether we think we need to entertain starting a few true mid-pricers or not? Thinking Daisy, Clarke, Polec, Sandi?


Master class indeed! Beat the tar out me brain with footy wisdom.

One thing not discussed is amount of cash you should have remaining after picking your initial team. What I noticed is that Dimma had about $74K available, so it made trading easier. Anything to that, Higgo?


Also, PowerToThePeople had a starting cash bank of $133K.

Think with the raise in rook prices, having $80K+ to start would seem to provide much needed trading flexibility.

Higgo, mountain or mole hill?


Love the work done by the team. So much wisdom and it inspired me . I was doing some thinking about how much Martin would need to score to justify his price from cheaper rookies. I'm not sure how much sense this makes but please give it a read and say your thoughts.

This is the basic pricing system that I go by when selecting players. Ave score * 5,000 = price. If a player get 100 every match they not quite reach 500,000 like an asymptote, it is the hot streaks and cold streaks which make a player over or under priced. Remember players are priced above their average at seasons start.

600,000 = 120
500,000 = 100
400,000 = 80
300,000 = 60
200,000 = 40

This is how footywire indicate a players value for money after a given round. 20 if score *5000 = price

Say Jack Martin 222, 300
Average around 82 and will peak in price at 400,000 or maybe will have a hot streak and reach 430,000 (O'meara peaked at 460,000) a profit of 207,700.

If leaving Jack Martin out of your team allowed you to bring in Moribito or O'Rouke at 123,900 you would need this player to average just 62 ish to bring in a similar profit. You could use this extra money to a Priddis into a Selwood who will average 20 more points and mean taking you to the 82 that Jack Martin did. Also remember lower scoring rookies have the tendency to fluctuate more meaning it is possible to sell above value. After 3 90+ games you could sell Blicavs for 373,000 (priced to av 74) with an av of 64 (equivilant to 320,000).

(I'm not sure about this part)
I think this would also mean Moribito will mature more quickly (defiantly if he has a few good games). If you also had O'Rouke (who say was always on the bench) who also was at 310,000 then you could trade 2* 310,000 for a premo 500,000 and a rookie 123,000. That would mean you have a 100 scoring player on the ground and a 60 on the bench rather than both 60 a few rounds earlier than if you had Martin who (I think) matures more slowly.

So when you are picking Jack Martin you are assuming he will average 20 more that the 123,300 rookies and 10 more than the 170,000 rookies. And maybe more if my theory about cheaper players maturing quickly is true.


Man, that is some good data, McClunge.

Easy to get hung up on the allure of Martin. As well as high-priced rooks like K.Kolo, McD, Aish, Lennon, etc. You know they are going to play. Good chance they'll get some good scores. But as means to cash generation and build your premium side, they may turn out to be a fugazi. Fake SC gold. Given the shallow talent rook pool this year picking your initial team will be especially challenging this season.


Some good data but there are rumours O'rourke will most likely be molded into a tagger. Also the dockers are going to take a very cautious route with Morabito, he will be coming back through the WAFL, thats straight from their coaching staff…but hey who believes what those d-bags say right?

Martin i think is only worth his price IF there aren't rookies priced under him which have the type of js he has on offer.


Agree, Jarrad. Or split the difference and get Aish or Sheed. Sure these walls will be on fire once R1 selections are made.


I see your point McM but most of us rely on at least one rookie as a scoring D6-M8-F6.
Three rookies scoring 70 v Three rookies scoring 40-60 for 4-10 weeks could be the difference between winning $1,000 early on or $50,000 at seasons end.


Fantastic analysis and in-depth discussion as always from team JR!

Rohan (who Higgo brought up with that stirring rendition of Rawhide) is a player I'm agonising over and it probably won't get resolved in my own mind until mid March when we have to begin locking away our final starting selections.

One of these seasons he could really blow the lid off the joint (a la Lewis Jetta in 2012) with his pace and footy smarts. Also no doubt his attractive pricing and the DPP cherry on top make him a tantalising temptation for our fantasy forward lines in 2014.

However I'm not convinced his job security is even semi assured with all these returning premiership players such as Goodes, LRT, Reid, Shaw and Johnson, some of whom play time up forward along with their shiny new $10M toy of course.

There are only so many spare spots to go around in a talent laden Swans outfit and I'm just not sure Rohan is in their best 22 if most of their cattle is available, especially if Jetta is fit and firing.

For now he is out of my squad but if he gets named for Rd 1 and some of these cheaper boys such as Honeychurch, Garlett and Taylor don't get up for the opener I may have to find a way to squeeze him in.


What do you think about robbie narhas playing or the roost this 0year and only 212.000 should plate alot of games he is a good player


But would he get significant game time? We've got a pretty balanced forward line as it is, with Black, Tarrant and Petrie as the talls and Harvey, Thomas, Hine (forward tag) with Garner and Harper trying find an opening for themselves. Then throw Majak into the mix (Goldstein will remain our no.1 for some time yet). Nahas will get some game time, but I think we're fine up front as it is.


Your thoughts on Liam Anthony Shinboner?

Always liked him, but appeared to be on the outer last season.

If he was selected Round 1, i would look at him very closely.


I agree Shinboner, I see Nahas as insurance and there to put a bit a pressure on Thomas, but not much more. I reckon he'll be doing well to get between 6 to 12 games.


Very helpful podcast guys!


Great work once again boys!


Hey guys, your thoughts on Morabito?


As per Jock's latest cheat sheet he's a young charger with a tonne of upside and one to keep a really close eye on in the NAB Challenge.

The 3 ACLs certainly can't be ignored but hopefully the LARS is the charm.

If named for Rd 1 most coaches will have a tough time passing on him. However Lyon has hinted that he will probably return through the WAFL so more likely to be a very attractive downgrade target early in the season, whenever he's on the bubble.


hey jock what to u think about having 350,000 in the bank


I'd say that's too much Benb. You want to start the season as strong as possible both for early league wins as well as a shot at the $50K.

Anything more than say $100K in the bank and you're starting at a real competitive disadvantage to the rest of the competition. For $350K you could start with an extra premium if not two.

I know you probably want to quarantine some cash for possible early corrective trades but you're better served spending all your salary cap from the get go.

There will always be good corrective trades to make even with little or no cash in the bank as there are always rookies that come out of nowhere that you can downgrade to in order to generate cash.


Think that's good advice. While the last two winners had $70K+ in the bank, I'd say anything more than $100K you would be flirting with disaster and starting off at disadvantage.

The rook pickings are certainly slimmer so your R1 picks need to be built for a longer haul than usual, in my opinion. There will be some rooks that come out of nowhere but I wouldn't plan around that. A stronger starting team will make it less necessary for corrective trades and give you more quality trade options to generate moola.




Lyon has admitted he will need to be eased in through the WAFL having missed about 3 years of footy.


Given he won’t play early he looms as a cheap downgrade. Downgrades at his price may well be scarce this year. It will be interesting to see how his confidence is after 3 ACLs.


who would you pick from parker and kennedy from WCE.


I feel Parker has slightly more upside being younger and expected to get a mixture of both forward and midfield time. Also the bonus of DPP status tilts things in his favour.

That said JJK is still a very legit selection especially with the Coaster's soft draw and likelihood of bouncing back from a "horrible anus" full of injuries last season.

I assume you already have Buddy locked away as he's probably the automatic selection at that kind of price range for many coaches.


Have not gone with Buddy even at his price don't have a good reason just haven't picked him, I have Kennedy at the momment but i'M thinking should change to parker.


It would be a boring competition if everyone picked the same players.

Between those two I would lean towards Parker but it's close.


Yeah Buddy is a bit like GAJ this year for me- although GAJ is alot classier, consistent and pure. I reckon if Buddy can learn to kick well at his new home ground he could smash out a mega goal tally this year- but then the same with the Suns (having a more even spread of players now) that Buddy may have to share his chances with Tippett and the rest of the team which is a large spread of good players. I reckon GAJ will still be top 5 players or number 1 by far but Buddy all depends on team stucture and whether he will be kicking most of his goals from 50 or 35 metres out. Depends on game plan for me.


I expect Buddy and Danger to be the most picked at the premium forward position.

Dusty will get some interest too but after that I'm not sure who else stands out as a must have in that particular category. Roo and Boomer are getting a little long in the tooth to probably be a popular selection any more.


Charlie Dixon an Interesting prospect if he, and either Ben brown or Apeness impress in the preseason, especially with many coaches leaning on injury prone rucks nic nat, sandilands, Mcintosh with only nakervis as cover.


Funny you should say that MCM as that is precisely the set-up I'm playing with.

I have Sandi and McIntosh as budget R1 and R2 with Ben Brown on the ruck bench and Dixon in the forward line as ruck cover.

Of course I will need to see how all these fellas fare in the NAB Challenge before locking this in but this is currently the structure I'm tinkering with.


I'm starting to re-think Dixon, MCM. Didn't figure he'd be worth getting in but he would help solve the ruck/fwd headache sooner rather than later.

Right now have something similar to SCaddict: Minson/Grundy with Nakervis and Brown, then Dixon as F2. Don't know if worth roll of dice to see Dixon's form before bringing in. Wait and see if worth it or not.


I don't think Franklin will have to share too much with Tippett. Expecting Tippett to play that Fwd/Ruck role this season. No Mumford, someone has to give Pyke a 'chop out'. Sam Reid FF, Franklin CHF.


Wonder if they'll need some time to adjust, especially at the smaller SCG? What you're saying makes sense, Taylorwoof.


Which two would u guys pick out of rough wing Dusty or buddy


At the moment i have Dusty & Buddy in my side.


I'm currently running with Danger, Dixon and Buddy as my premo forwards.

The other 3 you mentioned are certainly respectable selections but I don't have a strong opinion either way and are unlikely to make the final cut in Addicts Anonymous FC.


Right now Danger, Dixon, Buddy and Zorko. Had Dusty in earlier versions but leaning toward having him part of my priority upgrades (along with Gazza).


Thoughts on beau Waters? That price is very tempting but not sure what role he will play this year


Has an arm infection will be a delayed start to the season and very interrupted pre season wouldn’t go near him


I was keen on him Callum as he has massive SC scoring potential but he recently suffered another injury setback so I've now ruled a line through him as far as a Rd 1 selection.

I say this with some trepidation but I actually like the artist formerly known as 'The Burn Man' aka Jack Watts for a similar investment over Waters now.


Oh I should have checked up on that sort of stuff, Thanks for the info


Thoughts on starting 8 rookies on field, anybody thinking of doing this.


Was thinking of doing it, Rhino. But have a fear it will be slim pickings for R1-selected rooks. Especially on the forward line. Structure has 6 right now. But if 8 viable options come up, sure I'd consider 8 on the field.


It would be ballsy and would probably make a run at the $50K tough as your early round scores would likely suffer.

Still if most of those rookies fatten nicely along with the (presumably) 8 rookies on your bench then you will probably be quite a powerhouse when the league finals roll around (if you get enough wins along the way to make them that is).

Also you will likely have very few trades for corrective trades or for injuries as you will need to do a heck of a lot of upgrading.

So I think 5-7 onfield rookies is a better balance for most coaches but hey there are quite a few different ways to play this great game!

Do you have a particular 30 in mind or are you just talking in general terms? As throttle says Rd 1 playing rookies seem a little thin on the ground this season though the NAB comp normally unveils some pleasant surprises.


Tend to agree, I went 8 on field last year and it worked perfectly. But your right about not as many good. Rookies this year.


Is having D.Beams at M6 too much, thoughts?


If you can do it without leaving other positions exposed, I say go for it, Rhino. Right now I have him at M5.


Not in my view. In fact Beams is presently my M6 too (Pendles, Jack, Cotch, JPK, Smurf, Beams, rookie, rookie, rookie, rookie).


I've had him at M6. Maybe be worth it. Right now I'm at: Pendles, KJack, Cotch, Scooter, Beams, Daisy, rooks out)


Yes I've had Daisy in and out of my team and he may come back in again. Still considering Gaz of course although will probably go either Pendles or Gaz (but not both) as well as continually weighing up the likes of Watson, Stanton, Selwoods and others.

Up to version 563 of my midfield already I think. πŸ™‚


Ha! Likewise, SCaddict. Think I have a folder with 20+ screenshots of teams in the Higginator. Like JPK as well.

What are your locks, SCaddict? So far mine DEFS: SamMitch, Birchall, Fuller. MIDS: Pendles, D. Beams, Dunstan (maybe on reserve), RUCS: Minson FWDS: Danger, Buddy, Zorko and L. Taylor.


Locks would be (assuming no nasty surprises in the NAB comp):

DEF: McVeigh, S.Mitchell, Hanley
MID: Cotch, Jack, Beams
RUCK: Sandi
FWD: Danger, Buddy

Near locks I would add Pendles, Suckling, Bock and M.Clark. So more than half my team is still very undecided.

None of the rookies (even Fuller) are close to locks for me just yet. Really want to see how things transpire over the next 2 months as it's a very fluid situation in my mind.

We just don't know how most of these guys will handle senior footy or what development plans their coaches may have for them.


Near locks would be McV, Cotch and Sandi. I'm looking at Suckling like the rooks. Want to see how he does during NAB. Serious injury so no telling if he will return to form.


That's certainly fair enough.

Hey are you gearing up for a Superbowl in your backyard (NJ) in a couple of weeks or is that not your cup of tea?

I'm a long time Giants fan who obviously had a year to forget. Broncos vs Seahawks should be an intriguing encounter in the open air of MetLife. Could we get some snow?


I'm a lifelong Browns fan so I find your pain quite laughable πŸ™‚

And being from a cold weather football town, I am STOKED that they are doing it outdoors in the cold. The intangibles are what make the game exciting. When I was 11, I was at the Jets-Browns playoff game. -13 wind chill. Sat in the upper deck. Browns down by 10 with 3 and change left. Grandfather wanted to beat traffic. Turned on radio "AND THE BROWNS TIE THE GAME. WE'RE GOING INTO OT!!!" They end up winning. I never let him live it down.

Best D vs. Best O. What you want, right? Think the Broncos are too strong. Will be a great game, I think.


Oh man it's like those Heat fans who left the building early in G6 only for Ray Allen to force a miracle OT and deny the Spurs another championship.

Indeed it's been very slim picking for Browns fans who haven't made the playoffs in over a decade. Now that's pain personified. Hang in there mate!

The frigid weather may help slow down Peyton but yes it's advantage Broncos for sure.


Thanks Throttle, which ruck combo would you chose
Minson/longer or Leunberger/Grundy. I like A the most.


B is the safer bet from a scoring standpoint, IMO. I like Team A very much but Hickey looks like the Saint's main ruck. Can Longer in secondary role get you 70+ a game? Not sure. Could change depending how they look in NAB. Think the compromise may be Minson/Sandi. Hopefully by R9 Sandi has done enough (and stayed injury free) to earn $100K so you can upgrade before he bows out.


Not sure on sandi, Lyon is saying that zac Clarke will be back for rd1


Sandi can put up the points, though. Take that $310K and make it $400+ within a couple games.


He's crazy cheap though. If he gets through the NAB Challenge with no major hiccups and plays Rd 1 he's pretty much an automatic selection for me regardless of how well Zac Clarke may be playing.

Similar pricing to Leuey last year who proved to be a very profitable investment for all those who got on him early, not that Sandi is guaranteed to work out that way too of course.

Like much of the best bits of SC it's the ole risk vs reward trade off. Whichever way it goes, good or bad, I believe Sandi is going to have significant impact on the fortunes of Supercoaches this season.


What do u think is more important having a rook on the bench merely for dpp flexibility or one that’s goin to increase in price for example I have McDonald in the mid with Langdon in Def for the change up option not really expecting him to play


Gday Scooter, IMO, Increase in value is definitely more important in the early rounds. Setting up your swing is a lower priority. You need rooks that will generate cash early so that you can upgrade them. Worry more about swing sets as the bye round approach.

Brick Savy

I don't listen to the podcasts – not my thing – but I appreciate the sheets and general chit chat.

Non gold member like myself is still waiting for the gates to open – when it does – DAYNE BEAMS no.1.

That's all I can say at this point!


Gee you're really missing the best part of the site by skipping these podcasts imo. They are pure liquid gold!

Agree with you that Beamsy is the lock of all locks.

Brick Savy

Time /wife/ work. Things that make me busy – oh and EPL FF – with the odd sportsbet punt. Maybe Jock should start up a punters club! Go on old fella………..

enter the void

At about round 8 or 9 last season the Herald published an article showing the best theoretical starting team. This team was around 1,200 points ahead of the actual SC leader at the time and that was without using a single trade. I can't remember the title of the article or exact date, just took a pic of the squad which I've listed –

Goddard ($541,500); Hanley ($485,200); Hibberd ($395,100); Dylan Roberton ($254,100); Vlastuin ($159,500); Goodes ($128,200) – Terlich ($109,500); Stevenson ($115,900)

Gaz ($740,500); Pendles ($667,300); K. Cornes ($499,000); Jack Steven ($480,800); R. Douglas ($430,400); Wingard ($276,500); O'Meara ($115,900) – Matt Jones ($109,500); Kommer ($109,500)

Minson ($508,800); Goldstein ($497,900) – Blicavs ($115,900); Gawn ($115,900)

Cox ($600,700); Johnson ($516,700); Roo ($513,100); Walker ($423,400); Stokes ($348,100); Kennedy ($229,600) – Macaffer ($128,000); Dwyer ($96,200)

Total Cost – $9,852,200; spare – $147,800

If you started with this squad, you'd have sewn up SC by a country mile. Only 4 starting rookies and a boot load of mid-priced options. Obviously its impossible to pick so many players but this makes for an interesting comparison.


Yes reinforces the point the lads made in the podcast that you don't have to play the perfect game to net the cash. There's plenty of wriggle room for mistakes/bad luck and you can still finish with a brilliant ranking.

Btw think you are missing a rookie mid there.

enter the void

Ah yes, sorry it was Ollie Wines @ $169,500.


Nice work Enter The Void (NIN?….hahaha)

Always good to look back at those type of articles.

enter the void

I’d love to have the balls to pick so many mid pricers, but think it’s just too risky. This squad does show that at least a couple should be the minimum. I guess if you nailed your roomies and had a number of mid priced players, you could always sideways trade them.


Interesting, however, it is very much impossible to have known that those particular mid price options would have come up trumps. The mid-price strategy can be outstanding when used as above but if per say the cornes, wingard, douglas and stokes were four mid-pricers that struggled, things could go the complete other way. Too risky for mine but very good info from you enter the void!!


Higgo quick question – you said Gary Rohan was duel position but on my gold SC just seems to be FWD?

You know something we don't?


Can i ask, Is Cotchin a lock? He is obviously a jet but for some reason I have never been convinced to have him in my squad. What's your thoughts on Cotch for 2014?


Liam, I'd suggest Cotchin is a good option. Whether he is a lock is up to each individual as there are many good midfield options. Reasons to consider Cotchin:
– 2013 was slightly below what he is capable of so he is a good chance to finish at a higher price by seasons end.
– Injury free and full pre-season.
– Part of an improving side (he is improving but so too are many of his young peers who will demand attention from the opposition also).
– Proven accumulator of SC points (CP and tackles are always healthy figures).


Thanks for the feedback Jock and SCannonymous. I'm just not sure how many mid premiums I want in my team. At this early stage I've got 5 including Beamsy. I have Pendles, Selwood, Cotchin, K.Jack, Beams. I don't think I will worry about this too much until we know what rookies have a good chance of playing round 1 depending on NAB form. I would like to know what other People are thinking?


Hey Liam!

If you include D.Beams & M.Murphy as Premium's then i'm currently looking at a 4-1-5 midfield. But agree with you, hard to set a structure in stone until we see the rookies in the NAB Series and Round 1 teams.


I reckon Wayno is on the money. Caddy is going to be a outstanding player, whether or not he has the tank yet to play significant time in the midfield this year is unclear. Possibly next year will be his breakout, but I see glimpses of Dangerfield in the way he will be able to burst away from packs with power (probably lacks the same speed and Danger though). If Caddy is not in the Geelongs top 5 B&F in two years, I will be surprised. It May be a year early and awkwardly priced, but like Wayno, I'm very tempted for this year.


hey guys.

Time for my yearly community service announcement.

I have seen on the forums that many of you are considering not starting with Gazza and starting with a slightly lower premium and save cash. This can be a good idea provided you REALLY look at how you spend the difference. Starting without gaz will only work if you really cash in benefit at the other end.

I'll give a scenario. I now decide to start with Cotchin rather than Gaz. $120K in the bank. Based on the pricing, they are about 25-28 points per game apart. I now need to cover that point difference to make this worth while.

First, an assumption that the averages in 2014 between the two player might narrow by 10 points. 18 more to gain.

A good change could be upgrade Dom Tyson to Daisy as Daisy *should* average better than 18 over Dom.
A bad change might be L Taylor to Billings as there is no guarantee that there will be a different in points returned or job security.

Just saying when looking at Gazza, also look at the other end on how you are going to nullify the lose of points from Gaz.


Certainly wise words Jimbo. I gambled last season by not starting with Gaz and paid the price in the rankings early and was playing a catch up game thereafter.

I guess the fact that he faded later in the season averaging only 94pts from Rds 18 to 22 has had some coaches second guessing his selection at the hefty $695K asking price. After all Father Time catches up to everyone whether they be a Judd, Goodes or a Pavlich and he's now just turned the wrong side of 30.

But I still think there is plenty of elite footy left in the Little Master yet.

Your point is well made that if you don't go with him that you are getting compensating value elsewhere.