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Supercoach 2014 prospect: Matthew Lobbe

Published by Jock on

Matthew LobbeRound 15, 2012. Matthew Lobbe shoulders the ruck load for Port against the old enemy Adelaide and concedes a record 61 hit outs to Sam Jacobs.

I put a line through him that day. Turned to Higgo and just shook the old head. This kid was never gonna make a number 1 AFL ruckman. Wouldn’t be at all surprised to see him head down to the SANFL, bob up as a second ruckman occasionally before getting the arse.

Very occasionally I’m proven wrong. And this looks as if this was one of those occasions.

Facts

2014 Price: Supercoach $464,400, AFL Fantasy $439,300
2014 Position: RUCK
2013 averages: 86 SC, 81 DT (19 games)
2012 averages: 71 SC, 67 DT (9 games)
2011 averages: 75 SC, 72 DT (10 games)

On the face of it he looks a rubbish option. Had his best season average with 86 Supercoach last year, not exactly bargain priced at $460K odd. You’d have to be off your dial to consider him wouldn’t you? I thought so as well.

The thing is – Lobbe pulled his finger out in the back half of the season in 2013. He had to. Koschie needed him.

A few things went his way. Firstly, Jarrad Redden stuffed his shoulder against the Dogs in round 10. This meant that Matty had to step up to the plate as the clear number 1 ruck. The other things is that the only other prospect to help with the rucking was Brent Renouf who, with all due respect, shows significant spud tenancies.

He found his confidence in the wet against the Swans in round 13 when he gave Mike Pyke a hiding to nothing on his way to a nice 110 SC. Yes he only beat a big uncoordinated Canadian bloke in the mud but that doesn’t matter. What matters is that he found some self confidence. I could see it in his eyes and could hear it in his voice on the phone after the game.

By round 20, with some solid game time and fitness under his belt he emerged. He delivered 5 tons in his last 6 games (including finals) at an average of 114 Supercoach points. This included a ball breaking 154 against Geelong in round 20 where he managed 59 hit-outs, and an arousing 127 against Fremantle where he busted out 15 tackles in a hungry display.

Verdict

2014 Predicted Status: Premium
Predicted Average 2014: 94-107 SC
Selection Status: A real option here.

Final Word

He will go into the 2014 season as the clear #1 ruckman at Port who are a team on the march. He’s 24 now and is just the age you look for when hunting for a break out ruck contender. I expect him to outperform his opening price and would suggest that he will be a value selection this year.

Provided he has a solid preseason he could be a real special this season. If you like him as your first or second ruckman I reckon that could work out very well for you.

However teams will have done their homework on him over the summer. With that, he’ll have a few learning curves to go through yet before he reached elitehood. While I see an 100+ average as very possible, I wouldn’t expect him to average as much as he did in the arse end of last season.

I’m not certain he’ll make the cut in JR Brumby FC this season. He’ll compete with some of the other premium ruck’s for an R1 position in my side, but at this stage I may spend the extra coin to get a ruckman who has demonstrated Elite prowess over a longer period of time. This is structural as I’ll be looking at a 1 premium, 3 rookie ruck structure this season if I can muster the cattle I need to pull it off.

Over to you lot – what are your thoughts on Matty Lobbe?

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Rhino

Great article. I’m considering him but not currently in my side

Dools

Nice one Jock
Robust, Hungry and a Tackiling Machine.Like him a lot as the R2 but I think you are being very optomistic in your stratagy if you persue the Lobb and 3 rookies avenue.
At this point in time I see no rooky to fill the gap(s) in your stratagy.
However you have shown me on more then one occassion that you are not the Father of Fantasy for no reason!
PS Just what I needed at 1255 am as I researched SC and just about to call it a night. Now I'm off to the fridge to get some thinking man's Juice.
Cheers mate

Rhino

Jock just wanted to ask you what your thoughts on sandilands are. Do you think he is to risky, is he underpriced? Thoughts would be appreciated

Rhino

I tend to agree. On lobbe he is sort of 1 out of 4 I’m looking at along with Berger from lions, Mcvoy from hawks and grundy(not sold on him at this stage)

Matt

Have you guys thought about making an iPhone app? Either for the website, or for the Higginator. Have no idea how difficult or expensive it would be, I’m sure Higgo’s all over that though. Would be happy to pay for it as well. Just a thought. Website consistently provides us with brilliance anyway.

Matt

And on the article, very interesting. Have been looking for a ruckman to go with Sandi, but don’t want to fork out 620k for Big Will. Will definitely have a look at Lobbe.

SCMania

Great article, perfect timing for me. A big question on my list is having Lobbe or not. Thanks guys!

jeff

Have this guy locked and loaded – apparently trains like an animal keeps up with mids and is bulking up nicely. Reckon he will be top 3 ruckman in league by year end

Wombats

Had Future STAR written all over him when he landed at Port and we have not seen anything like his best yet. Definite Wombat attributes of suprising speed and strength & balance when over the ball.
I'm going with Lobbe & Warnock. Lobbe will run all day and Warnock will contest every tap for blues because Kruez is now a mobile Chf/Ruck Rover.
Having Lobbe, Warnock is about 40pts better and a lot cheaper than having Minson plus any other ruck likely to play 10+ games.

throttlefinger

He's an R2 lock on my team. Great value and upside. Can't really seeing him disappointing. Plus, as much as I like Will and Goldie, can't justify the $600K tag. For a mid, sure. But a ruck? Roll the dice on a firebrand like Lobbe.

Dools

Hey Trottle
Maybe pair him off with Mummy? or even a Sam Jacobs?

Throttlefinger

Hey Dools! That’s my thinking right now. Either Mummy or NicNat as R1 with Lobbe. Or my plum pick is Lobbe and Grundy. Where you leaning with the rucks? Pre- and post man juice picks.

Dools

Hi Throttle
Like the idea of Lobbe and Grundy but I'm still concerend over Dog dogs fitness (Still on light running expects to be in full training by Feb so he is a definate watch maybe later season upgrade but at 518K maybe a bit to exy for a maybe starter)
Mummy has fallen off the radar since the move to GWS this can be both good or bad more digging for me……
Pre man juice I had Grundy Sandy with ZClarke (He got he self injuried at a festival in Victoria) so I was even toying with Sam Jacobs or Ivan Maric as R1 Grundy R2 settled on that one with Sandy my R3 and a Captains Loophole from Max King (Ric)
Post Man Juice I think It has to be Lobbe with Grundy as R1 R2 at this time but now I'm thinking Grundy could be the one I replace with Mummy / Jacobs if I can find the bloody men in me search! and he can slide to R3. Maybe we will find a better R2 or R3 with more study but I like your plum pick at this time mate

throttlefinger

Yeah, I'm leaning that way too Dools. If both Lobbe/Grundy come out like gangbusters and either Minson and Goldie come slow out of the gate, could make for a smooth upgrade. But if NicNat or Mummy come out preseason playing inspired ball, may deflate the plums and go that way.

Lot of wait and see…and I'm having a hard time waiting.

Brick Savy

This is all well and good – but this article only begs the question – What happens with Jarrad Redden in the side?

Either might be an option. Sit and wait for me.

Mick

Thinking the LobbeBerger could satisfy in the rucks department, both on the improve I reckon.

Dools

Jock your Premium with 3 rookies stat had me for 6 hours and quite a few trips to the fridge for some serious man juice
This is how I see it …
1 Pyke (470K odd) is 29 A tad excey for a Single Ruc (and not born to the game like Minson) , S Tippet pinch hits but Nankervis is the fall back. So 117K well spent
2 (Happy) Apeness (137K Freo) with the injury to ZClarke his stockes have soared and Sandilands will be nursed through the season – Thanks Barron
But no.3 should be your Captain Loophole me thinks so M.King from Richmond (102K) so in Ruc Dept you have spent Bugger all for the high probability of a very very Strong return on $'s
3 For the 350 K spend along with all the Prem mids that you will start off with I see a solid tilt at Will Minson (All Australian, Played every game and Just extended his contract Not to mention Norwood SA has done it again) So that's where I'm at mate so your Ruc policy mentioned could work and feild Ruc divison for less then 1 Million – WOW 4 Players 1 Elite, 2 Highly likelies and a Captains Loop hole
What do you reckon?

Dools

No Not Minson! Goldstein Perfect Age and In a very powerful team ya that's it Goldy

Dools

Sorry about the Narelle flash backs – Man Juice = Beer (Dam now I'm never caling it that again…Eva)
Well Strip me down and roll me naked in the berries mate….
You have gota stop carrying a candle for the woman she left the campervan a long time ago and made you what you are to-day…..
Thanks Narelle

Dools

LOL

jimbotraralgon

Hey mate. Lobbe is a very interesting.

After looking into him i think I will go with nicnac and sandi. Lobbe might be an upgrade target for longer perhaps.

Rhino

Lobbe good option but I haven’t seen hardly anyone have big boy mcEvoy. Quite interesting, I like the look of him and at a new club I am quite intrigued. Thoughts?

SCMania

At the moment it looks like most of the mid pricers in the ruck are too risky, the perfect option in my opinion at the moment is definitely have Lobbe at R2 and have anyone over him such as Goldstein, Minson, Pyke or Mumford. You will always be safe and with good averages it's great! To find the cash I'd downgrade forward premiums as there is heaps of nice mid pricers or rookies there, the other option would be downgrading a midfielder as they also have a lot of depth in the rookies/mid pricers, Cheers.

throttlefinger

That's where I'm leaning, SCMania. Mummy and Lobbe. Was tinkering with Lobbe and Grundy but requires plums that would make these pants a bit too uncomfortable.

scooter

Just interested in your rookie and mid priced fwds finding it by far the hardest line

Eugene

I have Grundy as my R2 and am now wondering who to be my R1.
Lobbe or Pyke?

Dools

Hi Community,
Had a good look at Lobbe as a possible R 1 and then I was going to cheaper for my R 2
I'm now considering ATM Hamandeggburger (520K odd ) as R1 with Lobbe as R2. I'm aware of the $'s but if I put Danger in the Mids with a swing cheapie in the Fwds I can trade out the Non Performing one by Round 3 as long as I have Grundy as My R3 to start with. Expensive yes but insurance ain't cheap either.
But Why The Hamberger? Avg 95 with an achillies injury played 20 games Avg 95 and I think the Lions have a decent draw esp in Ruc duels and also just the right age25! Who is there in the team to replace him ?
So the 'berger withLobbe and Grundy ….Could be real intresting eh?

jimbotraralgon

thinking similar way dools but going nicnat at r1 and r3 being longer. With so few Ruck forward swings you really do need insurance at r3. Especially with nicnat and sandilands both coming back from injury. No guts no glory.

Dools

Great to hear from you Jimbo__Last year …agghhhh was last year .."BIG LESSON LEARNT" regarding Rucs…__I' have to admit that Jock's stratagey in the Ruc Dept has got me fairley rigid in the pants!__But I think I will go after (W)rookies for the Mids and thinking maybe just start off with 3 Prem or elites in Mds and No player in backline more then 515K in Defence__Like I said on line in K. Simpson Article I could build a very good Def around him__Mitchell will get a tag, Bartels will play Fwd so save the coin and i will build a war chest from round 1 …__But it will cost trades, I have 30 did not use em all last year and the season before we had 24 so I aim to trade my ass off in R2/3 &4 but with the war chest mentioned. For that to come off I need to have Ruc dept sorted for 1st 7-10 weeks So insurance is the way for me to do it with 3 playing Rucs and Danger in the Mids and take a punt on someguy like chappy to generate points and / or cash…..__I think I need a drink just to calm meself down anywho that 's where I m at and it is still January Hahahahah

throttlefinger

Excellent points Dools. The insurance on Rucks…brilliant. Get kinda lost in making your mids superhuman and your def and forwards heavyweight strong. Ruc strategy gets a bit lost. Think I'm leaning Mummy/Lobbe with Longer as the backup. Danger in the Mids is interesting too. Who you thinking of as your FWD cheapie? Caddy cheapie or Honeychurch cheap?

Dools

G'day Throttle
Glad to see the wild weather on the East Coast is not effecting you mate..
If I can get H'Church as a starter rnd 1 ya! but he will have too convince me over J. Billings and L.Taylor or just to be evil maybe 2 of the 3. One as a starter and the other for desert later on in the rounds and I think H'Curh may be the one but I will have young Hogan also. There is a massive upside to Chappy but I'm firming for Caddy not for the coin saving but for the output.
Danger has to start mids IOT make it all work along with Beams & Murphy/Daisy.
Well me ol' china thats where the beer has taken me to-night !!!

throttlefinger

Ah, making the Dools nightly transition to the man juice? (or has it been renamed since your chat with Jock…hilarious)

So who would be your forward swing for Danger? Caddy? If he starts to burn, I can see that being wise to move him into your Mid reserves, if a rook reserve is showing promise. Maybe Honeychurch. From what I've read, Billings hurt himself during his trip to the States. May not make R1. I like him as well. But he's a wait and see for starting team.

lostlarrikin

Some serious juice work going on there Dools.
Good on ya for managing to squirrel away trades last yr.
I did a fair bit of early cash gen and converting last yr to no avail, but not abandoning that philosophy.
Im with ya on the Lobberger with a side order of grund. Might almost be a cheap set and forget.
Grundy's JS and ability to hold down R1 is a big factor on ruck strategy for mine, but cant expect Witts and Hudson to steal too much there.

In the interest cash gen, im leaning to Lobbe, Grundy, Sandi, Apeman

Will need to track the competition from Redden/Too aloof during pre season to weigh up if Berger is a better R1 (main competition from West, lower risk?)

Dools

G'day Lost,
Sandi was in my thinking but @31/2 injury scares me…The guy could in all likihood could decapitate heself strolling thru the banner!
West is a fall back not a contender IMHO can play Frd can kick goals but No 1 Ruc no mate
J.Redden would be best used as a mid or like Tippett pinch hit in the Fwd line to spell the big fella methinks
Thats where I think it's at; at the moment Lost .Glad too see you were thinking the same as Throttle and meself in Ruc muesings…But It changes all the time does't it?

lostlarrikin

Changes constantly it does…
Thanks for the sniff on Berger/West.

As a Port supporter i'd like to think I have a finger on our ruck structure, but alas no.

I'll be damned if I know where Redden and Aloof fit in, daylight past these guys tho, so not much in the wings for back up.

throttlefinger

I go back and forth between the cash gen and point gen teams: Lobbe/Grundy/Longer/Apeman (or Thurlow) and Mummy/Lobbe/Longer/Apeman.

Lot depends, as with rooks, on NAB play. Dools has got me thinking Berger instead of Mummy…but I can't see him doing poorly with a GWS team that should be much more competitive this season. Then again, I could eat shitte on it too.

Dools

Mate, Never eva' calling a trip to the fridge those words again!
I'm still trying to get some juice on Mummy but even their official site does not have him listed so (A) he never arrived Or (B) they don't want us to know he arrived!!!!!
Holy Cow GWS I'm on to you…. update your godamd site
Ahmmm Now I need a refreshing lager

Rhino

Hey throttle, I really like Mumford for a couple of reasons. He has got lots of confidence, last 6 games average over 116. Also gws start against swans, melbourne, and saints, teams that don’t have a prem ruck

throttlefinger

He did finish the year strong. Plus a new team always springs a little life into a player of his caliber. Giles will be supporting but Mummy will be handling the big loads. Stellar point about the draw, Rhino. And I think GWS will be much more competitive this year.

Barring looking horrid in pre-season, he and Lobbe are pretty much locks as my Rucs.

Rhino

Also Gws say he is as fit as he has ever been. And has got rid of his back and knee problems

throttlefinger

First game is against old squad. You KNOW he's gonna come out with his hair on fire.

Dools

Very Valid point Rhino’

but with these 3 ‘Berger, Lobbe & Grundy’ I have avoided the Ruc doughnut in the byes!!! If this project makes it that far mate.

GWS say’s he has got rid of his back and knee problems! Blimey I need to visit there too then mate hahahah

Can you send me a link to GWS please as I can not get anything on the Mummy from my link?

Rhino
Dools

Thanks Rhino,
I owe ya one mate…Cheers

SCMania

Hope this Q can help a few people with the answers.

Who would be the best R1 with Lobbe at R2? ( in order )

S. Mumford, M. Pyke, T. Goldstein, M. Leuenberger, W. Minson and N. Naitanui. Say another name if I've forgotten somebody.

My opinion in order at the moment would be:

T. Goldstein, W. Minson, M. Leuenberger, S. Mumford, N. Naitanui and M. Pyke.

Who would be the best R2 with Lobbe at R1? ( in order )

B. Longer, H. McIntosh, B. Grundy and A. Sandilands.once again say another name if I've forgotten.

My opinion in order at the moment would be:

B. Grundy, B. Longer, A. Sandilands and H. McIntosh.

Obviously it depends how much money you have but put down your opinions in order, thanks guys!

throttlefinger

Lot of variables to consider. But if everyone was healthy and I was considering price in terms of how it affects my structure:

R1 with R2 Lobbe: NicNat (great price, big scores), Leuy, Mummy, Pyke, Minson/Goldstein (same. just too much to pay for a ruck and savings can add a solid backup ruc or choice midpricer in Mids)

R2 with R1 Lobbe: Grundy (improves where he left off), Hickey, Longer (could be switched), McIntosh and Sandi

BestCoastEagles

Worth a look still not sold considering his big scores came against teams with depleted ruck stocks. Nic Nat & Grundy for me at this early stage of dreaming. Nic Nat has been murdering the training track and is raring to fire.

BroomFC

Defenders:
J. Mcveigh, Hanley, M Johnson (Scharenberg)
M Suckling, K Kolodjashnij, L Mcdonald (Fuller)

Mids:
Griffen, Pendlebury, Mundy, Ziebell (Sheed)
D Beams, J Anderson, Martin, Aish (Polec)

Rucks:
Lobbe, Grundy (Longer, Nankervis)

Forwards:
Dangerfield, L Parker, Bellchambers (Kersten)
J Lamb, Lennon, Garlett (L Taylor)

Obviously rookies are subjective to change depending on form, particularly the mids, but hope that maybe a few quirky picks will see me dob a hilux come years end!

Dools

G’day BroomFC,
A most excellent part of landscape. Righto down to Business mate
M.Johnson – had him 2 yrs ago was a players player but now he is (29) and given Ross the Boss’s tendency to recreate players High risk IMO….Hanley this yaer is a tag magnet agaain Just MHO matey.
Anderson ???? why him ? and same question with Bellchambs (DingDong_) Don’t mind our Rookie stucture buddy we know it;s subject to change
So off to a very good start require s a tweek or 2 but the bones of a winning side are there

jimbotraralgon

looking further into Lobbe, average 106 in the last 8 rounds – ranked 5th.

Now have a decision between him (breakout and more $) and NicNat (could go ballistic this year if fit)

what to do?

Grant

I considered Lobbe, but in the end there are too many mid/ low price contenders in the ruck this year to consider a breakout at that price.