The Death of the “Guns and Rookie” Strategy
What a couple of days it has been in the world of Fantasy Football.
If you don’t know by now the Supercoach 2014 team picker has opened up to all those who purchased Supercoach Gold in 2013.
For those of you who have been able to log on and try your hand at picking a team, you’ll have noticed one massive change from the years gone past, the price of our Rookies. Rookies in 2014 come in at a premium, with number 1 draft pick Tom Boyd coming in at a whopping $217,300. Even last year’s Mini draft gun, Jack Martin will set you back even more coin, at $222,300.
This is a stroke of genius by the games creators as it now effectively forces our hand a little to make us select players in the midprice range and thus ensuring there will be a large variety of players selected in our teams. This is what the games creators want and instead of the same top level premiums and the same starting rookies showing up in everybody’s team, 2014 should see teams with a whole host of potential breakout contenders in the $400k to $500k range. The “Guns and Rookie Strategy is dead.
For those of you who are entrenched in Supercaoch like myself, you’ll all know what I mean when I say “Guns and Rookies”.
However for those of you who are a little unsure.. it is exactly what it says it is; a team made up entirely of Premiums (Guns) and rookies. When building your team, you would simply pick one gun then one rookie through all the lines until you run out of money to pick any more premiums, and then fill the remaining spots with rookies. In past seasons the guns and rookie approach was very popular and to a large degree very successful. However with the way the pricing is this year I honestly think this approach is rendered null and void, gone, dead, alive only in memories of yesteryear.
I big call I know but a little drastic, I think not. Below is an example of a “Guns and Rookie” Team from the 2013 season.
If you count it out you will find the ratio of Premiums to Rookies at 13:17. Thirteen Premiums to Seventeen Rookies. This means your starting 22 players would be made up of Thirteen Premiums and only Nine Rookies. This in theory would mean you could fill your team full of premiums using only 18 trades. Last year we had 30, so we had room to stuff up a few trades and still get a team full of premiums by the time finals came around. How many games did you play in finals last year when you had more than 10 PODs (Points of Difference)?? Not many, right!
This approach to team building was easy and came with relatively little risk. Yes some premiums do flop and if you even look at the team above, all of Franklin, Maric and Murphy all flopped in 2013. However with the 30 trades it wasn’t such a big deal moving these guys on, and you still had 27 trades left to turn those remaining rookies into Premiums.
Fast forward to this year and the below team is an example of what you will be looking at by going with a “guns and rookies” strategy.
If you count it out you will find the ratio of Premiums to Rookies is now at 11:19. Eleven Premiums to Nineteen Rookies. This means your starting 22 players would now be made up of Eleven Premiums and Eleven Rookies. This would mean the best case scenario for you to fill your team full of premiums would cost you 22 trades. That would only leave eight trades for stuff ups, injuries and early season tweaks, and that’s best case scenario. Some upgrades may cost you two downgrades for one upgrade, especially if some of those rookies don’t produce averages in or around the 80 mark, and trust me a lot of them won’t. It also exposes you to more unpredictably as rookies are likely to be dropped, rested or give you inconsistent scoring. You’ll still only have two trades a week and if you are looking at donuts the chances are you will be forced to trade, and panic trading is never a good thing.
So where does this leave us going into the New Year. Well many of us will have differing opinions on this but I personally don’t think we should expose ourselves to any more than 8 starting rookies. Last year I had 6 starting rookies, 7 if you count P. Karnezis at the bottom end of the midpricers at 262k. This year that is very close to a Rookie price. Last season amazingly I picked 6 players priced between 400k and 500k and all in all I think all 6 of them where successful pick-ups. Below is Mad Mick’s Mayhem’s team from round 1 2013.
Last season I didn’t have to select those 6 players but chose to go down that path. In 2014 with the price the rookies have come in at, I don’t think I will have any other choice than to go looking for value in that same price range between 400k and 500k. That sits easy with me as I personally love looking for value in that range anyway, but I am eager to hear what the community is thinking? Leave your thoughts in the comments below.
In the meantime here is a list of some of those breakout players who could take their game and their Supercoach average to the next level in 2014. Stay tuned to Jock Reynolds over the next few weeks for an analysis and insight into all these players.
Just love this game. Bring on the preseason.
Stay tuned ….
Mick the Mad Irishman
- 27th overall in Supercoach 2014
- Runner Up: Jock Reynolds Premier League 2014
- Once swallowed a whole packet of salada biscuits without water in 21 seconds.
- Follow the great man on Twitter:@Da_Mad_Irishman
- Click here for all of Mick’s 2014 Supercoach Analysis to date